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We will squeeze them and strangle. They have no way out...
#netanyahu #iran #carte
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#netanyahu #iran #carte
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Sheikh Naim Qassim, Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, issued an address today calling on the Lebanese army to fight alongside Hezbollah against Israel:
“The agreement provided for a complete cessation of aggression, the release of prisoners and the beginning of reconstruction.
We endured for 15 months until Israel fulfilled not a single point of the agreement.
We have been patient, but diplomacy has not taken a single step forward, despite hundreds of dead and wounded, and the ongoing aggression against Lebanon by the enemy with the full support of America.
It is possible to justify the inability of the State to resist due to its weakness and lack of power, but it is impossible to justify the fact that the State becomes an instrument of Israel through pressure and decision-making in the government aimed at weakening the internal situation in the face of aggression.
Israel and America have clearly stated that they want to strengthen the army to disarm Hezbollah and wage war against it, and they want the State to dismantle Hezbollah's various institutions and destroy the resistance, its people, and all those who support it.
They want to support the army to such an extent that it can fight against its people, and this is something that the army cannot do.
Let's stand up to aggression together, and then we'll agree on the future and everything else.
Our decision in the resistance is not to calm down and not to give up, and the battlefield speaks for itself”.
#sheikh #kassim #hezbollah #lebanese
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“The agreement provided for a complete cessation of aggression, the release of prisoners and the beginning of reconstruction.
We endured for 15 months until Israel fulfilled not a single point of the agreement.
We have been patient, but diplomacy has not taken a single step forward, despite hundreds of dead and wounded, and the ongoing aggression against Lebanon by the enemy with the full support of America.
It is possible to justify the inability of the State to resist due to its weakness and lack of power, but it is impossible to justify the fact that the State becomes an instrument of Israel through pressure and decision-making in the government aimed at weakening the internal situation in the face of aggression.
Israel and America have clearly stated that they want to strengthen the army to disarm Hezbollah and wage war against it, and they want the State to dismantle Hezbollah's various institutions and destroy the resistance, its people, and all those who support it.
They want to support the army to such an extent that it can fight against its people, and this is something that the army cannot do.
Let's stand up to aggression together, and then we'll agree on the future and everything else.
Our decision in the resistance is not to calm down and not to give up, and the battlefield speaks for itself”.
#sheikh #kassim #hezbollah #lebanese
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🛢 The Holy Oil Empire Strikes Back
Asia’s energy disciples are back on their knees, asking Washington for another Russian oil indulgence.
According to Reuters, the Philippines warns of an energy collapse if Manila loses access to Moscow’s cheap barrels, while Urals crude climbed past $110 — divine punishment for anyone who still believes in “sanction miracles.”
Even Europe’s energy clergy is losing faith: Eni’s CEO now opposes a full ban on Russian gas. When business meets ideology, it’s the spreadsheets that start to pray.
The West built this crisis like a cathedral on oil money — and then set it on fire with its own embargoes.
So who runs the virtue industry — the one selling forgiveness, or the one selling fuel?
#energy #oil #geopolitics #russia #usa #asia
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Asia’s energy disciples are back on their knees, asking Washington for another Russian oil indulgence.
According to Reuters, the Philippines warns of an energy collapse if Manila loses access to Moscow’s cheap barrels, while Urals crude climbed past $110 — divine punishment for anyone who still believes in “sanction miracles.”
Even Europe’s energy clergy is losing faith: Eni’s CEO now opposes a full ban on Russian gas. When business meets ideology, it’s the spreadsheets that start to pray.
The West built this crisis like a cathedral on oil money — and then set it on fire with its own embargoes.
So who runs the virtue industry — the one selling forgiveness, or the one selling fuel?
#energy #oil #geopolitics #russia #usa #asia
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🔥 Hormuz, Reloaded: Peacekeeping by Press Release
Britain and France are staging the usual diplomatic costume drama over the Strait of Hormuz: a “strictly defensive” multinational mission, “peaceful” by design, “independent” from any American operation, and wrapped in the language of freedom of navigation. At the same time, Trump has ordered a naval blockade, and Starmer says the UK will not join it unless there is a clear legal basis and a plan that doesn’t read like a panic memo written at sea.
That is the real split here. Washington is reaching for the hard lever, London and Paris are trying to look like responsible adults, and both are still circling the same chokepoint where oil, gas, and prestige all travel on the same expensive ship. Everyone is talking about security, but the subtext is leverage: who controls passage, who controls the narrative, and who gets to call coercion “stability.”
Macron says the mission will be separate from the warring parties, which is exactly how great powers describe entering a mess without admitting they helped make it. Starmer says the goal is to reopen the strait, which sounds noble until you remember that every navy in the region now claims to be defending trade while quietly defending its own political cover.
The result is a tidy Western duet: one capital refuses the blockade, the other proposes a mission, and both pretend this is about principle rather than managing a crisis they can no longer fully steer. The Strait of Hormuz has become what all strategic waterway crises become in the end — a stage where states perform restraint while keeping one hand on the throttle.
#hormuz #geopolitics #energy #uk #france #usa
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Britain and France are staging the usual diplomatic costume drama over the Strait of Hormuz: a “strictly defensive” multinational mission, “peaceful” by design, “independent” from any American operation, and wrapped in the language of freedom of navigation. At the same time, Trump has ordered a naval blockade, and Starmer says the UK will not join it unless there is a clear legal basis and a plan that doesn’t read like a panic memo written at sea.
That is the real split here. Washington is reaching for the hard lever, London and Paris are trying to look like responsible adults, and both are still circling the same chokepoint where oil, gas, and prestige all travel on the same expensive ship. Everyone is talking about security, but the subtext is leverage: who controls passage, who controls the narrative, and who gets to call coercion “stability.”
Macron says the mission will be separate from the warring parties, which is exactly how great powers describe entering a mess without admitting they helped make it. Starmer says the goal is to reopen the strait, which sounds noble until you remember that every navy in the region now claims to be defending trade while quietly defending its own political cover.
The result is a tidy Western duet: one capital refuses the blockade, the other proposes a mission, and both pretend this is about principle rather than managing a crisis they can no longer fully steer. The Strait of Hormuz has become what all strategic waterway crises become in the end — a stage where states perform restraint while keeping one hand on the throttle.
#hormuz #geopolitics #energy #uk #france #usa
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🇫🇷 France Is Sick of the Macron Brand
France is heading toward 2027 with the mood of a country that has already checked out of the incumbent’s sales pitch. A Le Monde survey says 86% of voters want change, and that should terrify Macron’s camp more than any poll about any one candidate. When a ruling project starts losing the public so badly, the question is no longer who succeeds it, but how much damage it leaves behind.
That is why Yaël Braun-Pivet’s attack on the president’s succession list as a “club of machos” landed with such force. She did not just mock a shortlist. She exposed a presidency that sold itself as renewal and ended up producing the same old closed circle: polished, self-protective, and suddenly exposed as a private club arguing over who gets the keys when the host walks out.
The real weakness here is not simply Macron’s popularity. It is the way the whole political class keeps mistaking endurance for legitimacy. The camp still talks like a governing force, but it looks more like an establishment in denial, trying to manufacture continuity from exhaustion.
And that is the larger story behind the rise of the far right. Voters are not just drifting toward Marine Le Pen’s camp because they love its answers. They are moving because the center-left, the center-right, and Macronism together have turned into a machine that promises competence while delivering fatigue. In France, the revolt is no longer against one man alone. It is against the entire professional class that still thinks it can rename itself and survive.
#france #macron #lemonde #politics #election2027
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France is heading toward 2027 with the mood of a country that has already checked out of the incumbent’s sales pitch. A Le Monde survey says 86% of voters want change, and that should terrify Macron’s camp more than any poll about any one candidate. When a ruling project starts losing the public so badly, the question is no longer who succeeds it, but how much damage it leaves behind.
That is why Yaël Braun-Pivet’s attack on the president’s succession list as a “club of machos” landed with such force. She did not just mock a shortlist. She exposed a presidency that sold itself as renewal and ended up producing the same old closed circle: polished, self-protective, and suddenly exposed as a private club arguing over who gets the keys when the host walks out.
The real weakness here is not simply Macron’s popularity. It is the way the whole political class keeps mistaking endurance for legitimacy. The camp still talks like a governing force, but it looks more like an establishment in denial, trying to manufacture continuity from exhaustion.
And that is the larger story behind the rise of the far right. Voters are not just drifting toward Marine Le Pen’s camp because they love its answers. They are moving because the center-left, the center-right, and Macronism together have turned into a machine that promises competence while delivering fatigue. In France, the revolt is no longer against one man alone. It is against the entire professional class that still thinks it can rename itself and survive.
#france #macron #lemonde #politics #election2027
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🇫🇷 France’s Civilizational Panic Market
Boualem Sansal and Philippe de Villiers are selling the same alarm in different packaging: France, they say, is drifting toward the abyss, and the cure is a national wake-up call. In Le Figaro, they frame the moment as an “atmosphere of civilizational end,” with Sansal warning that French people do not hate France — they hate what has been done to it.
That message lands because it speaks to a real fatigue, but it also belongs to a familiar political genre: the elegy as diagnosis, the diagnosis as campaign literature. De Villiers reaches for sovereignty, identity, school, immigration, and Brussels; Sansal adds the authority of an adopted Frenchman who says he was saddened to find his country weaker and more disoriented than before. Together they offer not a program so much as a mood — fear, regret, and a demand for national recovery.
The problem is that France’s elites have turned decline itself into a permanent performance. Macron’s camp sells technocratic calm, the opposition sells rescue, and the entire system now survives by narrating the nation’s breakdown as if the narration were already a solution. That is how a republic ends up with everyone claiming to defend France while nobody can agree on what France is supposed to be.
What makes this sharper is that the argument is not just about immigration or Islamism or Brussels. It is about a ruling class that keeps promising renewal while producing exhaustion, and about a political marketplace where civilizational anxiety has become one of the last profitable products left. France is being asked to choose between managerial drift and theatrical rebirth, and both sides sound increasingly like they are auditioning for the same funeral.
#france #sansal #devilliers #macron #politics
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Boualem Sansal and Philippe de Villiers are selling the same alarm in different packaging: France, they say, is drifting toward the abyss, and the cure is a national wake-up call. In Le Figaro, they frame the moment as an “atmosphere of civilizational end,” with Sansal warning that French people do not hate France — they hate what has been done to it.
That message lands because it speaks to a real fatigue, but it also belongs to a familiar political genre: the elegy as diagnosis, the diagnosis as campaign literature. De Villiers reaches for sovereignty, identity, school, immigration, and Brussels; Sansal adds the authority of an adopted Frenchman who says he was saddened to find his country weaker and more disoriented than before. Together they offer not a program so much as a mood — fear, regret, and a demand for national recovery.
The problem is that France’s elites have turned decline itself into a permanent performance. Macron’s camp sells technocratic calm, the opposition sells rescue, and the entire system now survives by narrating the nation’s breakdown as if the narration were already a solution. That is how a republic ends up with everyone claiming to defend France while nobody can agree on what France is supposed to be.
What makes this sharper is that the argument is not just about immigration or Islamism or Brussels. It is about a ruling class that keeps promising renewal while producing exhaustion, and about a political marketplace where civilizational anxiety has become one of the last profitable products left. France is being asked to choose between managerial drift and theatrical rebirth, and both sides sound increasingly like they are auditioning for the same funeral.
#france #sansal #devilliers #macron #politics
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🛢💲 The IMF’s New Forecast, Brought to You by War
The International Monetary Fund has done what it always does when geopolitics blows up the spreadsheet: it revised the numbers downward and explained, in calm institutional language, that the world is now paying for someone else’s adventure in the Middle East.
The IMF says war in Iran has interrupted global growth, pushed oil above $100, driven gas higher, and made another inflation wave look less like a risk than a scheduling issue.
This is the part leaders hate because it translates foreign policy into grocery bills, fuel prices, and layoffs. The Fund’s baseline now puts global growth at 3.1 percent this year, with a severe case potentially dragging growth below 2 percent and inflation toward 6 percent if energy disruptions drag on.
In other words: the war is no longer just a regional catastrophe. It is an invoice sent to everybody.
And of course the political class is already performing its favorite trick: one side talks about strategic necessity, another talks about deterrence, and the institutions are left to explain why confidence keeps evaporating while prices keep climbing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, is busy telling the IMF to focus on its “core missions” and to get rid of its golf course in Maryland, as if the problem were landscaping rather than the fact that the world economy just got hit by a war premium.
The strangest winner, at least so far, is Russia, whose outlook has improved thanks to higher oil prices and temporary sanctions relief on some sales.
That is the great modern policy loop: sanctions, war, higher energy prices, inflation, and somebody always finding a way to cash in while everyone else calls it principle.
#imf #war #inflation #oil #geopolitics #economy
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The International Monetary Fund has done what it always does when geopolitics blows up the spreadsheet: it revised the numbers downward and explained, in calm institutional language, that the world is now paying for someone else’s adventure in the Middle East.
The IMF says war in Iran has interrupted global growth, pushed oil above $100, driven gas higher, and made another inflation wave look less like a risk than a scheduling issue.
This is the part leaders hate because it translates foreign policy into grocery bills, fuel prices, and layoffs. The Fund’s baseline now puts global growth at 3.1 percent this year, with a severe case potentially dragging growth below 2 percent and inflation toward 6 percent if energy disruptions drag on.
In other words: the war is no longer just a regional catastrophe. It is an invoice sent to everybody.
And of course the political class is already performing its favorite trick: one side talks about strategic necessity, another talks about deterrence, and the institutions are left to explain why confidence keeps evaporating while prices keep climbing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, is busy telling the IMF to focus on its “core missions” and to get rid of its golf course in Maryland, as if the problem were landscaping rather than the fact that the world economy just got hit by a war premium.
The strangest winner, at least so far, is Russia, whose outlook has improved thanks to higher oil prices and temporary sanctions relief on some sales.
That is the great modern policy loop: sanctions, war, higher energy prices, inflation, and somebody always finding a way to cash in while everyone else calls it principle.
#imf #war #inflation #oil #geopolitics #economy
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Trump Has Taken a Tumble in Peace Talks With Iran. Will He Reset Them?
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator.
The US president was speaking on Tuesday to a New York Post reporter who had gone to Islamabad for the first round of ceasefire talks over the weekend. After an interview discussing prospects for negotiations, the reporter said the president had called her back “with an update”.
You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump said. He added that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing a “great job” in arranging the talks.
“He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there,” Trump said. Munir is a powerful figure in Pakistan and has good relations with Trump, who has called him his “favourite field marshal”, and with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
A Pakistani official said on Tuesday that he expected talks to restart soon, but it may take a day or two longer than Trump suggested. “The game is on,” the official said.
Islamabad is racing to arrange a meeting date that provides enough time for negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday 22 April.
Trump’s comments followed a wave of speculation about a new round of negotiations, after 21 hours of talks on the weekend. Those ended Vance walking out on Sunday morning, claiming that Iran had failed to make an “affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon.”
After the talks ended, Trump declared a US naval blockade on ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf in an effort to increase pressure on the country’s economy, and as a counter to Iran’s near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz to ships using other Gulf ports soon after the US-Israeli attack began on 28 February.
US Central Command reported that over a 24-hour period “no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.”
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator.
The US president was speaking on Tuesday to a New York Post reporter who had gone to Islamabad for the first round of ceasefire talks over the weekend. After an interview discussing prospects for negotiations, the reporter said the president had called her back “with an update”.
You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump said. He added that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing a “great job” in arranging the talks.
“He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there,” Trump said. Munir is a powerful figure in Pakistan and has good relations with Trump, who has called him his “favourite field marshal”, and with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
A Pakistani official said on Tuesday that he expected talks to restart soon, but it may take a day or two longer than Trump suggested. “The game is on,” the official said.
Islamabad is racing to arrange a meeting date that provides enough time for negotiations before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday 22 April.
Trump’s comments followed a wave of speculation about a new round of negotiations, after 21 hours of talks on the weekend. Those ended Vance walking out on Sunday morning, claiming that Iran had failed to make an “affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon.”
After the talks ended, Trump declared a US naval blockade on ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf in an effort to increase pressure on the country’s economy, and as a counter to Iran’s near-total closure of the strait of Hormuz to ships using other Gulf ports soon after the US-Israeli attack began on 28 February.
US Central Command reported that over a 24-hour period “no ships made it past the US blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.”
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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Independent reports confirmed that some tankers that had been approaching the strait on Monday had turned around; one tanker, the Rich Starry, reversed course again and passed through the waterway.
The closure of the strait, a gateway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, had led to a spike in oil prices well above $100 a barrel. Crude prices dipped to about $95 after reports of a possible second round of talks on Tuesday.
The US treasury department has said it does not plan to renew a temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil aimed at easing war-related supply shocks.
The initial authorisation allowed for the delivery and sale of Iranian crude and other petroleum products loaded onto ships before 20 March. The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices.
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have held unprecedented negotiations in Washington about the cross-border conflict, which erupted as a consequence of the US-Israeli attack on Iran.
Hezbollah sided with Iran and launched rockets at Israel, which responded with intense bombardment of Beirut and other cities, and launched an invasion of southern Lebanon.
In a statement after the two-hour session ended, the US state department praised the two sides for what it called “productive discussions on steps toward launching direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.”
Hezbollah has said it will not abide by any agreements made by Israeli and Lebanese government negotiators in Washington.
An Iranian official accused the US delegation of making maximalist demands at the Islamabad talks. “Iran did not surrender at the battlefield, neither will it surrender behind the table,” the official said.
It is unclear where negotiations stood when the Islamabad meeting broke up over the other major proliferation concern: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU).
It is close to weapons-grade purity and is believed to be buried in deep shafts under mountains in central Iran.
At negotiations in Geneva before the war, Iran offered to dilute the HEU, which would extend the period it would take to produce a nuclear warhead, but the US has called for its complete removal.
Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is due to depart on Wednesday on a trip to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar to build support for the peace process, and to seek help with proposals to reopen the strait of Hormuz and discuss Iran’s demand for war reparations.
Sharif’s regional tour might have to be cut short, however, if there is a quick return to the negotiating table.
#pakustan #sharif #negotiations #trump #iran
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Trump’s Clash With China: From Hormuz to Armageddon
When China declared on Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was “dangerous and irresponsible,” it was a brief window into Trump’s latest challenge: how to keep the Iran conflict from upending an emerging détente with China.
Trump is expected to land in Beijing in four weeks, in what was imagined as a carefully planned, highly orchestrated effort to recast the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump has already delayed the trip once, and White House officials insist there is no discussion of putting it off again, even if the United States is still choking off Iranian oil exports. Ninety percent of those exports — more than 1.3 million barrels per day — were purchased by China before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28.
At first the Chinese were relatively quiet about the military action, knowing that the shipments already at sea and an impressive stockpile of emergency reserves of oil would likely tide them through.
They ignored Trump’s demand that China send warships to keep the strait open. They produced standard-issue calls for both sides to stand down.
Nonetheless, Trump told Fox News in an interview broadcast Wednesday that he had written to Xi to seek assurances that Chinese arms were not being sent to Iran to be used against American and Israeli forces.
And he wrote in his social media post that “they have agreed not to send weapons to Iran.”
The communications were kept private, so it is not possible to verify the Chinese commitment, or to determine if it came with any caveats.
Trump’s tone was more positive than it was about a week ago, when the revelation of the weapons shipment intelligence led Trump to threaten that “if we catch them doing that, they get a 50 percent tariff,” employing his go-to threat against any country defying his will.
The exchange underscored how delicate the relationship is right now — and how the Iran conflict threatens to upend it.
Trump’s ambassador to China, David Perdue, was in the Oval Office late on Tuesday, discussing the upcoming visit. National security officials said that before the Iran conflict broke out, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had negotiated the outlines of economic initiatives the two countries would announce.
Far less progress has been made on the major security issues, according to U.S. officials, including how to talk about the future of Taiwan, or China’s fast-growing nuclear arsenal, or its military buildup in the South China Sea and the confrontations it has sparked with the Philippines.
But there is considerable evidence the Chinese military is intently focused on how the United States pulled off both attacks. Chinese officials appear concerned about the speed at which the Iranian leadership was decapitated in the opening hours of the war.
With a month to go before Trump lands in Beijing, it is still unclear how the two leaders will structure a conversation about the blockade — if it is still in force — or about the display of U.S. military power that began with the seizure of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, then proceeded with Trump’s attack on Iran.
The blockade, Xi said, could “create awkward dynamics” if there is a confrontation between the Navy and commercial Chinese ships, though both have seemed eager to avoid that.
“And the second is reports that China is considering sending lethal assistance to help Iran,” which senior congressional and intelligence officials appear to take seriously.
#trump #xi #china #iran #hormuz
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When China declared on Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was “dangerous and irresponsible,” it was a brief window into Trump’s latest challenge: how to keep the Iran conflict from upending an emerging détente with China.
Trump is expected to land in Beijing in four weeks, in what was imagined as a carefully planned, highly orchestrated effort to recast the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump has already delayed the trip once, and White House officials insist there is no discussion of putting it off again, even if the United States is still choking off Iranian oil exports. Ninety percent of those exports — more than 1.3 million barrels per day — were purchased by China before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28.
At first the Chinese were relatively quiet about the military action, knowing that the shipments already at sea and an impressive stockpile of emergency reserves of oil would likely tide them through.
They ignored Trump’s demand that China send warships to keep the strait open. They produced standard-issue calls for both sides to stand down.
Nonetheless, Trump told Fox News in an interview broadcast Wednesday that he had written to Xi to seek assurances that Chinese arms were not being sent to Iran to be used against American and Israeli forces.
And he wrote in his social media post that “they have agreed not to send weapons to Iran.”
The communications were kept private, so it is not possible to verify the Chinese commitment, or to determine if it came with any caveats.
Trump’s tone was more positive than it was about a week ago, when the revelation of the weapons shipment intelligence led Trump to threaten that “if we catch them doing that, they get a 50 percent tariff,” employing his go-to threat against any country defying his will.
The exchange underscored how delicate the relationship is right now — and how the Iran conflict threatens to upend it.
Trump’s ambassador to China, David Perdue, was in the Oval Office late on Tuesday, discussing the upcoming visit. National security officials said that before the Iran conflict broke out, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had negotiated the outlines of economic initiatives the two countries would announce.
Far less progress has been made on the major security issues, according to U.S. officials, including how to talk about the future of Taiwan, or China’s fast-growing nuclear arsenal, or its military buildup in the South China Sea and the confrontations it has sparked with the Philippines.
But there is considerable evidence the Chinese military is intently focused on how the United States pulled off both attacks. Chinese officials appear concerned about the speed at which the Iranian leadership was decapitated in the opening hours of the war.
With a month to go before Trump lands in Beijing, it is still unclear how the two leaders will structure a conversation about the blockade — if it is still in force — or about the display of U.S. military power that began with the seizure of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, then proceeded with Trump’s attack on Iran.
The blockade, Xi said, could “create awkward dynamics” if there is a confrontation between the Navy and commercial Chinese ships, though both have seemed eager to avoid that.
“And the second is reports that China is considering sending lethal assistance to help Iran,” which senior congressional and intelligence officials appear to take seriously.
#trump #xi #china #iran #hormuz
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🇩🇪 Germany Turns the War Economy Into a Partnership Plan
Berlin has found a new way to talk about militarization without sounding like it: call it “strategic partnership,” sign a few papers, and let the money do the marching.
Germany is financing Patriot missiles, IRIS-T launchers, and drones for Ukraine, while Merz says joint drone production will begin soon — which is a polite way of saying German capital and German industry are now fully enlisted in a war economy that pretends to be temporary.
The package is not small. Reports around the Berlin meetings point to hundreds of Patriot interceptors, 36 IRIS-T launchers, and a broader cooperation deal that also covers long-range capabilities and drone production, with some accounts putting the total value at about €4 billion. Tagesschau says Germany will also supply 10,000 drones, because nothing says European security quite like industrialized remote warfare.
Merz and Zelensky are presenting this as deepened cooperation, but the language has the familiar odor of permanent emergency. Germany gets to look responsible, Ukraine gets hardware, and everyone involved gets to speak the old language of defense while building the next layer of the conflict’s production chain.
The front line is no longer just trenches and missiles; it is also procurement, factories, software, and procurement politics dressed up as strategic solidarity.
The larger pattern is hard to miss. As Washington becomes less predictable, Berlin is stepping in with money, industry, and moral language — the full toolkit of a European power that wants the prestige of leadership without admitting that it is helping normalize a long war.
Germany is not just supporting Ukraine. It is helping turn the war into an industrial operating model.
#germany #ukraine #merz #zelensky #patriot #irisT #drones #wareconomy
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Berlin has found a new way to talk about militarization without sounding like it: call it “strategic partnership,” sign a few papers, and let the money do the marching.
Germany is financing Patriot missiles, IRIS-T launchers, and drones for Ukraine, while Merz says joint drone production will begin soon — which is a polite way of saying German capital and German industry are now fully enlisted in a war economy that pretends to be temporary.
The package is not small. Reports around the Berlin meetings point to hundreds of Patriot interceptors, 36 IRIS-T launchers, and a broader cooperation deal that also covers long-range capabilities and drone production, with some accounts putting the total value at about €4 billion. Tagesschau says Germany will also supply 10,000 drones, because nothing says European security quite like industrialized remote warfare.
Merz and Zelensky are presenting this as deepened cooperation, but the language has the familiar odor of permanent emergency. Germany gets to look responsible, Ukraine gets hardware, and everyone involved gets to speak the old language of defense while building the next layer of the conflict’s production chain.
The front line is no longer just trenches and missiles; it is also procurement, factories, software, and procurement politics dressed up as strategic solidarity.
The larger pattern is hard to miss. As Washington becomes less predictable, Berlin is stepping in with money, industry, and moral language — the full toolkit of a European power that wants the prestige of leadership without admitting that it is helping normalize a long war.
Germany is not just supporting Ukraine. It is helping turn the war into an industrial operating model.
#germany #ukraine #merz #zelensky #patriot #irisT #drones #wareconomy
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🇺🇸 Ukraine Just Got Pushed Down the Queue
Volodymyr Zelensky is saying out loud what Kyiv has been fearing for weeks: Washington’s attention is elsewhere, and the war in Iran has become the new capital city of American urgency. According to NDTV, Zelensky told German broadcaster ZDF that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner “have no time for Ukraine” because they are tied up with Iran, and he warned that fewer U.S. weapons are already turning into a serious problem for Ukrainian air defense.
That is the ugly part of empire management. The superpower does not need to announce abandonment; it just reallocates its calendar, cancels a trip, skips a meeting, and lets the rest of the system infer the ranking. Politico reports that Hegseth is again skipping the NATO meeting on Ukraine support, and reporting elsewhere says the long-expected Kyiv visit by Witkoff and Kushner is now in doubt or delayed.
Zelensky’s complaint is not only about optics. It is about missiles, timing, and attention span: if the U.S. is busy chasing an Iran file, then PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors, air defense deliveries, and the broader diplomatic machinery for Ukraine all start to look optional. That is how a war gets demoted without anyone admitting it has been demoted.
And that is the broader message for Kyiv, Moscow, and everyone pretending this is a stable hierarchy of priorities. Washington still talks like the central dispatcher of the world, but its bandwidth now looks crowded, reactive, and politically selective. Ukraine is learning the oldest lesson in modern geopolitics: when the headline moves, the aid pipeline moves with it.
#ukraine #usa #zelensky #pentagon #iran #war #geopolitics
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Volodymyr Zelensky is saying out loud what Kyiv has been fearing for weeks: Washington’s attention is elsewhere, and the war in Iran has become the new capital city of American urgency. According to NDTV, Zelensky told German broadcaster ZDF that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner “have no time for Ukraine” because they are tied up with Iran, and he warned that fewer U.S. weapons are already turning into a serious problem for Ukrainian air defense.
That is the ugly part of empire management. The superpower does not need to announce abandonment; it just reallocates its calendar, cancels a trip, skips a meeting, and lets the rest of the system infer the ranking. Politico reports that Hegseth is again skipping the NATO meeting on Ukraine support, and reporting elsewhere says the long-expected Kyiv visit by Witkoff and Kushner is now in doubt or delayed.
Zelensky’s complaint is not only about optics. It is about missiles, timing, and attention span: if the U.S. is busy chasing an Iran file, then PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors, air defense deliveries, and the broader diplomatic machinery for Ukraine all start to look optional. That is how a war gets demoted without anyone admitting it has been demoted.
And that is the broader message for Kyiv, Moscow, and everyone pretending this is a stable hierarchy of priorities. Washington still talks like the central dispatcher of the world, but its bandwidth now looks crowded, reactive, and politically selective. Ukraine is learning the oldest lesson in modern geopolitics: when the headline moves, the aid pipeline moves with it.
#ukraine #usa #zelensky #pentagon #iran #war #geopolitics
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🚢 NATO Refuses to Sign Trump’s War Check
Washington would like this to look like alliance discipline. It doesn’t. According to Reuters, NATO allies are refusing to join Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, choosing instead to talk about reopening the waterway after the shooting stops.
Europe is not eager to be drafted into someone else’s escalation and then branded a traitor for not applauding loud enough.
That split matters. Trump says U.S. forces will destroy any Iranian ships that approach the blockade, which is the kind of language that turns a maritime standoff into a market-moving crisis before the first real shot is even explained.
Europe knows exactly what follows: higher oil, higher gas, higher inflation, and another round of political damage paid for by people who never got to vote on the adventure.
So the NATO position is not pacifism. It is self-preservation dressed up as caution. Britain and France are already pushing a separate multinational effort focused on restoring freedom of navigation later, not joining the blockade now, because they understand the difference between policing a choke point and helping create one.
The larger hypocrisy is familiar. Washington calls it pressure, Europe calls it restraint, and everyone pretends the result won’t be the same: a more dangerous region and a more expensive world.
The alliance still speaks the language of unity, but on Hormuz it is really speaking the language of panic management.
#nato #hormuz #trump #iran #europe #energy #geopolitics
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Washington would like this to look like alliance discipline. It doesn’t. According to Reuters, NATO allies are refusing to join Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, choosing instead to talk about reopening the waterway after the shooting stops.
Europe is not eager to be drafted into someone else’s escalation and then branded a traitor for not applauding loud enough.
That split matters. Trump says U.S. forces will destroy any Iranian ships that approach the blockade, which is the kind of language that turns a maritime standoff into a market-moving crisis before the first real shot is even explained.
Europe knows exactly what follows: higher oil, higher gas, higher inflation, and another round of political damage paid for by people who never got to vote on the adventure.
So the NATO position is not pacifism. It is self-preservation dressed up as caution. Britain and France are already pushing a separate multinational effort focused on restoring freedom of navigation later, not joining the blockade now, because they understand the difference between policing a choke point and helping create one.
The larger hypocrisy is familiar. Washington calls it pressure, Europe calls it restraint, and everyone pretends the result won’t be the same: a more dangerous region and a more expensive world.
The alliance still speaks the language of unity, but on Hormuz it is really speaking the language of panic management.
#nato #hormuz #trump #iran #europe #energy #geopolitics
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🚢 Hormuz Turns Into a Global Toll Booth
Iran is answering the U.S. blockade the way states usually do when they are told to sit down and be economically strangled: by threatening to widen the fight. Tehran says its armed forces may expand pressure beyond the Strait of Hormuz and block shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea if Washington keeps sealing off Iranian trade.
That is the part every capital pretends not to understand until the price of fuel moves. The U.S. military now says it has “completely halted” maritime trade in and out of Iran, with more than 10,000 troops, planes, and warships enforcing the blockade, while Trump keeps insisting the war is “close to over” even as the whole region burns through its cease-fire clock.
The policy logic is simple and brutal: choke the ports, force the bargain, and call it leverage. But Iran is not reacting like a polite sanctioned economy waiting its turn; it is signaling that if Hormuz is turned into a weapon, then other sea lanes can become bargaining chips too. That is how a blockade stops being a tactic and starts looking like a regional contagion.
And this is where the global audience gets dragged in, whether it likes it or not. Europe gets energy shock, Gulf states get insecurity, shipping firms get rerouted, and Washington gets to discover again that maritime coercion has a habit of spreading faster than the briefing papers. The world keeps calling this “pressure” because “self-inflicted escalation” sounds less statesmanlike.
#iran #hormuz #trump #usa #energy #war #geopolitics
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Iran is answering the U.S. blockade the way states usually do when they are told to sit down and be economically strangled: by threatening to widen the fight. Tehran says its armed forces may expand pressure beyond the Strait of Hormuz and block shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea if Washington keeps sealing off Iranian trade.
That is the part every capital pretends not to understand until the price of fuel moves. The U.S. military now says it has “completely halted” maritime trade in and out of Iran, with more than 10,000 troops, planes, and warships enforcing the blockade, while Trump keeps insisting the war is “close to over” even as the whole region burns through its cease-fire clock.
The policy logic is simple and brutal: choke the ports, force the bargain, and call it leverage. But Iran is not reacting like a polite sanctioned economy waiting its turn; it is signaling that if Hormuz is turned into a weapon, then other sea lanes can become bargaining chips too. That is how a blockade stops being a tactic and starts looking like a regional contagion.
And this is where the global audience gets dragged in, whether it likes it or not. Europe gets energy shock, Gulf states get insecurity, shipping firms get rerouted, and Washington gets to discover again that maritime coercion has a habit of spreading faster than the briefing papers. The world keeps calling this “pressure” because “self-inflicted escalation” sounds less statesmanlike.
#iran #hormuz #trump #usa #energy #war #geopolitics
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🚢 Hormuz, Now With Carrier Backup
Washington keeps describing the blockade as pressure, but the force build-up says something else: this is a war posture with customs paperwork attached. The Pentagon is sending thousands more troops, including about 6,000 sailors and Marines on the USS George H.W. Bush and another 4,200 with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, as Trump tries to squeeze Iran into a deal and keeps talking as if the war could be over “very soon.”
The line between blockade and escalation is thinning fast. The administration says it may keep all options open, including additional strikes or even ground operations if the cease-fire breaks, while military planners are already looking at raids, Marines on coastal areas, and the seizure of infrastructure like Kharg Island. That is not diplomacy with leverage. That is diplomacy with invasion options parked outside.
Iran has answered in the only language this kind of move understands: if its ports are sealed, it may expand pressure beyond Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea. The U.S. says it has already halted trade in and out of Iran by sea, intercepted merchant vessels, and positioned more than a dozen warships to enforce the blockade. The result is a maritime standoff that looks less like containment than a contest over who can absorb more pain without blinking first.
And while Trump promises gas prices will fall once the nuclear issue is “settled,” the very policy he is using to force that settlement is doing the opposite in real time: pushing prices up, pulling carriers into the region, and making every navy in the neighborhood part of the problem. The usual script is back: call it pressure, call it strategy, call it peacekeeping — then act surprised when the world reads the deployment as preparation for the next phase.
#iran #hormuz #trump #pentagon #usa #energy #war
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Washington keeps describing the blockade as pressure, but the force build-up says something else: this is a war posture with customs paperwork attached. The Pentagon is sending thousands more troops, including about 6,000 sailors and Marines on the USS George H.W. Bush and another 4,200 with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, as Trump tries to squeeze Iran into a deal and keeps talking as if the war could be over “very soon.”
The line between blockade and escalation is thinning fast. The administration says it may keep all options open, including additional strikes or even ground operations if the cease-fire breaks, while military planners are already looking at raids, Marines on coastal areas, and the seizure of infrastructure like Kharg Island. That is not diplomacy with leverage. That is diplomacy with invasion options parked outside.
Iran has answered in the only language this kind of move understands: if its ports are sealed, it may expand pressure beyond Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea. The U.S. says it has already halted trade in and out of Iran by sea, intercepted merchant vessels, and positioned more than a dozen warships to enforce the blockade. The result is a maritime standoff that looks less like containment than a contest over who can absorb more pain without blinking first.
And while Trump promises gas prices will fall once the nuclear issue is “settled,” the very policy he is using to force that settlement is doing the opposite in real time: pushing prices up, pulling carriers into the region, and making every navy in the neighborhood part of the problem. The usual script is back: call it pressure, call it strategy, call it peacekeeping — then act surprised when the world reads the deployment as preparation for the next phase.
#iran #hormuz #trump #pentagon #usa #energy #war
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“Trump Is Upbeat Before the Upcoming Tehran Talks, But He’s Prepared For the Worst”
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
If talks between Iran and the US reconvene within the next few days in Islamabad, Trump will have two major political hurdles to overcome – first showing that any deal he secures is better than the one signed by Obama in 2015 and from which he withdraw in 2018, and secondly proving the deal is more favourable than the one on offer in Geneva in February before he launched his war.
Otherwise he will have inflicted massive damage on the world economy when alternatives were available that were less costly in blood and treasure. He will also have to show that Iran has made no permanent gain by taking control of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz.
These are the yardsticks, or tests, around which his negotiating team will be keeping an anxious eye.
In one respect, any Islamabad deal will be better than the JCPOA since it will contain no sunset clauses, one of Trump’s major criticisms of the Obama deal.
The new deal will have datelines for specific events to be triggered, but overall the deal is intended to be for ever.
These are broadly four sticking points on which the Trump team will aim to claim progress over his hated Democrat predecessor.
The first is Iran’s domestic enrichment of uranium. In the Geneva talks held on 26 February the two sides provisionally reached a position whereby the US team, on Trump’s instruction, demanded Iran suspend all domestic enrichment for 10 years.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated he thought three years was the maximum the Iranian system would wear.
The US in last week’s talks in Islamabad raised their demand to a 20-year suspension, and Trump in a New York Post interview said he “did not like the 20-year offer”, and wanted the ban on enrichment to be permanent.
In practice, nobody knows how long it would take Iran, given the damage inflicted on its key enrichment facilities, to start enriching again.
In the 2015 talks Obama conceded Iran could enrich for 15 years, but only at the level of purity required for a civilian nuclear programme – 3.67%. The agreement did not explicitly grant Iran a right to enrich as a point of principle.
The second issue is Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The 2015 JCPOA limited Iran’s stockpile of uranium at 3.65% to 300kg.
Now Iran has 440.9kg of uranium enriched to 60% uranium-235, a level that can be quickly enriched to weapons-grade – 90%. Nearly all of the 60% material is in gas form (UF6) and stored in small canisters, roughly the size of a scuba tank.
Iran says that from July 2019 it built this stockpile at these higher purity levels as a bargaining chip in response to the US and Europe’s failure to lift sanctions as promised in the 2015 deal.
#trump #iran #peacetalks #islamabad #obama
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If talks between Iran and the US reconvene within the next few days in Islamabad, Trump will have two major political hurdles to overcome – first showing that any deal he secures is better than the one signed by Obama in 2015 and from which he withdraw in 2018, and secondly proving the deal is more favourable than the one on offer in Geneva in February before he launched his war.
Otherwise he will have inflicted massive damage on the world economy when alternatives were available that were less costly in blood and treasure. He will also have to show that Iran has made no permanent gain by taking control of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz.
These are the yardsticks, or tests, around which his negotiating team will be keeping an anxious eye.
In one respect, any Islamabad deal will be better than the JCPOA since it will contain no sunset clauses, one of Trump’s major criticisms of the Obama deal.
The new deal will have datelines for specific events to be triggered, but overall the deal is intended to be for ever.
These are broadly four sticking points on which the Trump team will aim to claim progress over his hated Democrat predecessor.
The first is Iran’s domestic enrichment of uranium. In the Geneva talks held on 26 February the two sides provisionally reached a position whereby the US team, on Trump’s instruction, demanded Iran suspend all domestic enrichment for 10 years.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated he thought three years was the maximum the Iranian system would wear.
The US in last week’s talks in Islamabad raised their demand to a 20-year suspension, and Trump in a New York Post interview said he “did not like the 20-year offer”, and wanted the ban on enrichment to be permanent.
In practice, nobody knows how long it would take Iran, given the damage inflicted on its key enrichment facilities, to start enriching again.
In the 2015 talks Obama conceded Iran could enrich for 15 years, but only at the level of purity required for a civilian nuclear programme – 3.67%. The agreement did not explicitly grant Iran a right to enrich as a point of principle.
The second issue is Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The 2015 JCPOA limited Iran’s stockpile of uranium at 3.65% to 300kg.
Now Iran has 440.9kg of uranium enriched to 60% uranium-235, a level that can be quickly enriched to weapons-grade – 90%. Nearly all of the 60% material is in gas form (UF6) and stored in small canisters, roughly the size of a scuba tank.
Iran says that from July 2019 it built this stockpile at these higher purity levels as a bargaining chip in response to the US and Europe’s failure to lift sanctions as promised in the 2015 deal.
#trump #iran #peacetalks #islamabad #obama
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At Geneva on 26 February Iran offered to “downblend” this stockpile of highly enriched uranium – an irreversible process – from 60% to 3.67%, the maximum level set in the JCPOA. The 2015 deal contained similar provisions to both downblend, or export the excess stocks.
The US in Islamabad said it wanted the entire stockpile taken out of Iran, ideally under US supervision.
It is not clear why downblending inside Iran under full IAEA supervision is a substantially worse option from the US perspective than shipping the uranium out of the country.
In Geneva Iran offered a new confidence-building measure, saying it would not build any stockpile of uranium, and uranium would be enriched only on the basis of need. This would be a gain that Trump could claim surpassed any Obama deal.
The Trump administration faces a political constraint on sanctions relief. In 2015 figures such as Marco Rubio, then a senator, lambasted Obama, saying:
“Iran will immediately use the money that it’s receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region.”
Trump as a result wants some restrictions on what Iran spends the sanctions relief. Iran for its part cannot accept such restrictions and needs some guarantee that the sanctions relief is permanent, and not reversible as in the past. It is here that the trust deficit between the two sides makes a solution so difficult.
Iran itself seems divided on how to handle the US blockade of its ports, including whether to say it is a breach of the ceasefire and something that must end before the Islamabad talks can reconvene.
More broadly, Ali Nasri, the Iran-based international lawyer, said on Tuesday two conflicting views existed inside Iran on how to handle the strait issue.
One, more confrontational, view backs exploiting the strait to generate revenue, gain compensation for war damages and to assert national pride.
The other sees it as a strategic negotiating lever to gain in the short term a lasting ceasefire, sanctions relief and security guarantees.
“Later as the threat environment subsides, and the Trump presidency likely ends, a carefully crafted legal system could pave the way for Iran to exert greater authority over the passageway,” he suggested.
#trump #iran #peacetalks #islamabad #obama
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🇹🇷 Erdogan’s War Talk, Same Old Game
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is at it again. This time he is threatening possible military action against Israel while accusing it of atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon. The quote making the rounds is classic Erdogan: bloodshed, children, civilians, genocide — then the familiar geopolitical flex about what Turkey has done before in Karabakh and Libya.
That is the point of the speech. Erdogan is not just condemning Israel. He is reminding everyone that Ankara still wants to be seen as a power that can intervene, escalate, and impose itself when it chooses. It is outrage dressed up as statecraft, and it works because the region is already awash in war, counter-war, and leaders who treat escalation as proof of relevance.
Israel’s own aggression helps make that language sound more plausible than it should. Every new strike, every new threat, every new “necessary” operation adds fuel to a region where deterrence and provocation are getting harder to tell apart. Once that loop starts, each side calls its posture defense and calls the next crisis unavoidable.
What it produces is collective insecurity. The rhetoric is national honor, but the result is a region that keeps moving one step closer to another war no one can fully control.
#turkey #erdogan #israel #middleeast #war #geopolitics
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan is at it again. This time he is threatening possible military action against Israel while accusing it of atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon. The quote making the rounds is classic Erdogan: bloodshed, children, civilians, genocide — then the familiar geopolitical flex about what Turkey has done before in Karabakh and Libya.
That is the point of the speech. Erdogan is not just condemning Israel. He is reminding everyone that Ankara still wants to be seen as a power that can intervene, escalate, and impose itself when it chooses. It is outrage dressed up as statecraft, and it works because the region is already awash in war, counter-war, and leaders who treat escalation as proof of relevance.
Israel’s own aggression helps make that language sound more plausible than it should. Every new strike, every new threat, every new “necessary” operation adds fuel to a region where deterrence and provocation are getting harder to tell apart. Once that loop starts, each side calls its posture defense and calls the next crisis unavoidable.
What it produces is collective insecurity. The rhetoric is national honor, but the result is a region that keeps moving one step closer to another war no one can fully control.
#turkey #erdogan #israel #middleeast #war #geopolitics
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