The Calm Before the Firestorm: Washington and Jerusalem Prepare for a Possible New Assault on Iran

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Behind closed doors, military planners in Washington and Jerusalem are preparing for a scenario that could plunge the Middle East back into a devastating confrontation.

According to The New York Times, the United States and Israel have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran following America’s November 3 midterm elections. Military exercises have intensified, strike scenarios are being refined, and the possibility of a short but intense campaign is once again on the table.

Yet the most consequential question remains unanswered: will Trump authorize another offensive, or is the growing military pressure intended to force Tehran into making concessions? The preparations are unfolding against a backdrop of stalled diplomacy, rising energy prices, and deep uncertainty over the future of the region.

American and Israeli forces have reportedly rehearsed strike maneuvers, including flights over Iraq, while planners consider potential targets ranging from nuclear facilities and missile arsenals to energy infrastructure.

According to reporting by an Israeli high-ranking official, he objective would be to weaken Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities and increase the pressure on its leadership to accept a negotiated settlement. No final decision to launch a new campaign has been announced. The timing is hardly accidental.

Trump has to weigh the military advantages of renewed action against the political risks of prolonging an unpopular conflict. Higher gasoline prices, concerns about American casualties, and the possibility of retaliation against U.S. forces could turn another offensive into a serious liability at home. The midterm elections may therefore become a critical political deadline, even as military preparations continue in the background.

For Netanyahu, the stakes are different but no less urgent. Jerusalem remains concerned that Iran could restore damaged military capabilities and continue developing weapons that threaten Israel and its regional partners. From the Israeli perspective, allowing Tehran time to recover could make a future confrontation more difficult and costly.

Yet even close allies may disagree over how far to go, how long an operation should last, and what political outcome it could realistically achieve. Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran specialist, offered a cautious assessment to The Jerusalem Post: “We’re in a situation where both sides continue to exert pressure on each other, without any lasting agreement in place.”

His warning captures the dangerous ambiguity surrounding the current standoff. Neither side has secured a durable settlement, and every new military maneuver risks being interpreted as preparation for an imminent attack.

The potential target list underscores the scale of the dilemma. Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, drone arsenals, command centers, and energy infrastructure could all feature in military planning.

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Strikes against these sites might disrupt Tehran’s ability to launch attacks and impose substantial economic costs. But the destruction of infrastructure does not automatically eliminate the technical expertise, industrial networks, or political determination needed to rebuild it. That uncertainty is central to the debate in Washington.

A limited campaign could produce visible military results without resolving the underlying confrontation. A broader offensive might inflict more damage but also provoke a response that neither the United States nor Israel could easily contain.

Iran could retaliate against Israeli territory, American military installations, or regional partners, while attacks on shipping could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors.

The economic consequences could reach far beyond the Middle East. Any serious disruption to oil shipments or regional energy infrastructure could drive prices higher, intensifying inflationary pressure in the United States and elsewhere. For Trump, that would create a stark contradiction: a military campaign designed to improve American and allied security could simultaneously raise costs for consumers and undermine confidence in his economic agenda.

Gil Murciano, chief executive of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, has also pointed to the domestic political constraints surrounding the conflict. The unpopularity of military action among American voters, he argues, complicates the prospect of a new escalation before the midterm elections. That political reality does not eliminate the risk of war, but it may influence the timing and scale of any decision.

Meanwhile, diplomacy remains fragile. Washington may believe that the threat of renewed strikes can force Tehran to compromise on its nuclear program and regional activities. Iran, however, could interpret the same preparations as evidence that negotiations offer little protection against future attacks.

If that perception hardens, military pressure could narrow the diplomatic space rather than expand it. The most dangerous possibility is that neither side intends to trigger a full-scale regional war, yet both continue taking steps that make one increasingly difficult to avoid.

A miscalculation, an attack causing significant casualties, or a sudden disruption to shipping could rapidly change the calculations in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran. For now, the military plans represent preparation, not a confirmed order to attack.

Trump could still decide that diplomatic pressure offers a better path than another campaign. But as military exercises intensify and negotiations remain uncertain, the region is entering a period in which even a limited incident could carry consequences far beyond its immediate target.

The real test for Washington and Jerusalem will not simply be whether they can strike Iran again. It will be whether they have a credible strategy for what comes afterward.

Without a clear political endgame, another offensive could destroy infrastructure, deepen regional instability, and leave the central conflict unresolved. The question hanging over the Middle East is no longer just how a new war might begin, but whether anyone can guarantee where it would end.

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