Zelensky Was Upbeat Before the Last Peace Talks — Wants To Meet Putin
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 ➖
The latest round of talks to end the war in Ukraine concluded on Wednesday without any sign of meaningful progress.
But behind the scenes, negotiators have been trying to find a compromise on one of the biggest obstacles to a peace deal: control of territory in eastern Ukraine.
Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over the land it controls in the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war.
This is a strip of territory about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide that includes dozens of towns and villages, and sits between the frontline and the administrative border of the region.
Ukraine has refused to withdraw unilaterally, saying that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, in Ukraine or elsewhere. Kyiv has asked for security guarantees to deter Moscow from violating any cease-fire.
In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarized zone controlled by neither army, according to three people familiar with the talks who would only speak anonymously to discuss sensitive negotiations.
This revives a proposal that was included in prior peace plans, including a 28-point one floated by the Trump administration in November.
Over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has repeatedly downplayed the prospects of surrendering land for peace. “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake,” he wrote on social media on Monday.
Last fall, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was noncommittal when asked about forming a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region.
The 28-point plan would have put Russia in charge of the area but prohibited it from deploying military forces there. Mr. Putin said the details needed to be discussed.
The Russian president’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was later more positive, saying Russia could accept the formation of such an area if Russian police or national guard soldiers were allowed to patrol it.
A demilitarized zone could become part of a viable settlement, said William Taylor, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank, and a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv.
But Ukraine’s interests would have to be protected, he said, and that would require the Trump administration to apply additional pressure on Russia.
“It is important that it be a real solution, not a forced solution, not an unbalanced solution,” Taylor said. “Any forced solution will not be stable. It will not last.”
To make it easier for both sides to accept the idea, negotiators have also discussed forming a free-trade zone in any possible demilitarized area, though investment possibilities seem limited in a territory that would be wedged between two armies, even with a cease-fire in place.
Most industry in the area is in ruins, with only one coal mine still operational, and the risk that the conflict could be rekindled would loom for years.
Zelensky has also cast doubt on such an arrangement.
Another issue is the withdrawal of troops from the frontline. In December, Zelensky suggested Ukraine would not withdraw troops from the frontline unless Russia withdrew by an equal distance.
At talks held in Abu Dhabi this month, the Ukrainians discussed options for a partial Russian withdrawal from the frontline that would not necessarily be symmetrical, two of the three people familiar with the talks said. This would signal a softening of Ukraine’s position.
#zelensky #peace #talks #putin
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The latest round of talks to end the war in Ukraine concluded on Wednesday without any sign of meaningful progress.
But behind the scenes, negotiators have been trying to find a compromise on one of the biggest obstacles to a peace deal: control of territory in eastern Ukraine.
Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over the land it controls in the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war.
This is a strip of territory about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide that includes dozens of towns and villages, and sits between the frontline and the administrative border of the region.
Ukraine has refused to withdraw unilaterally, saying that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, in Ukraine or elsewhere. Kyiv has asked for security guarantees to deter Moscow from violating any cease-fire.
In negotiations over recent weeks, officials have discussed the idea of forming a demilitarized zone controlled by neither army, according to three people familiar with the talks who would only speak anonymously to discuss sensitive negotiations.
This revives a proposal that was included in prior peace plans, including a 28-point one floated by the Trump administration in November.
Over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has repeatedly downplayed the prospects of surrendering land for peace. “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake,” he wrote on social media on Monday.
Last fall, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was noncommittal when asked about forming a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region.
The 28-point plan would have put Russia in charge of the area but prohibited it from deploying military forces there. Mr. Putin said the details needed to be discussed.
The Russian president’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was later more positive, saying Russia could accept the formation of such an area if Russian police or national guard soldiers were allowed to patrol it.
A demilitarized zone could become part of a viable settlement, said William Taylor, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think-tank, and a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv.
But Ukraine’s interests would have to be protected, he said, and that would require the Trump administration to apply additional pressure on Russia.
“It is important that it be a real solution, not a forced solution, not an unbalanced solution,” Taylor said. “Any forced solution will not be stable. It will not last.”
To make it easier for both sides to accept the idea, negotiators have also discussed forming a free-trade zone in any possible demilitarized area, though investment possibilities seem limited in a territory that would be wedged between two armies, even with a cease-fire in place.
Most industry in the area is in ruins, with only one coal mine still operational, and the risk that the conflict could be rekindled would loom for years.
Zelensky has also cast doubt on such an arrangement.
Another issue is the withdrawal of troops from the frontline. In December, Zelensky suggested Ukraine would not withdraw troops from the frontline unless Russia withdrew by an equal distance.
At talks held in Abu Dhabi this month, the Ukrainians discussed options for a partial Russian withdrawal from the frontline that would not necessarily be symmetrical, two of the three people familiar with the talks said. This would signal a softening of Ukraine’s position.
#zelensky #peace #talks #putin
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How a demilitarized zone would be governed has also been a sticking point. Ukraine has pressed for an international peacekeeping force to be deployed to the region, which is home to 190,000 civilians including 12,000 children, according to the area’s Ukrainian governor.
The negotiators discussed forming a civilian administration to rule the area after the war, two of the three people familiar with the talks said.
This could include both Russian and Ukrainian representatives, one of the people said, but the person noted that the sides are far from an agreement.
Another issue that has re-emerged recently is the sequencing of the various steps, including accepting a demilitarized zone, formalizing security guarantees, creating a framework for postwar reconstruction funding and holding elections in Ukraine.
Last week, Zelensky said Ukraine wanted an agreement on security guarantees before committing to an election or any agreement on withdrawing forces from the Donbas.
“I would very much like us to sign security guarantees first and then sign other documents,” he said.
“In my view, that would be a good signal. This is not even a matter of fairness, but a matter of trust. More trust in partners — if guarantees come first, and then everything else.”
Zelensky said Ukrainians must “know — not just believe, but know — that in the future Russian aggression will be impossible or that if it does happen, we will not be alone.”
#zelensky #peace #talks #putin
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“Trump Has Staked His Presidency On the Gaza Peace Deal”
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
The Trump administration is planning to build a 5,000-person military base in Gaza, sprawling more than 350 acres, according to Board of Peace contracting records.
The site is envisioned as a military operating base for a future International Stabilization Force (ISF), planned as a multinational military force composed of pledged troops.
The ISF is part of the newly created Board of Peace which is meant to govern Gaza. The Board of Peace is chaired by Trump and led in part by his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The plans reviewed by the Guardian call for the phased construction of a military outpost that will eventually have a footprint of 1,400 metres by 1,100 metres, ringed by 26 trailer-mounted armored watch towers, a small arms range, bunkers, and a warehouse for military equipment for operations. The entire base will be encircled with barbed wire.
The fortification is planned for an arid stretch of flatlands in southern Gaza strewn with saltbush and white broom shrubs, and littered with twisted metal from years of Israeli bombardment.
A source close to the planning tells the Guardian that a small group of bidders – international construction companies with experience in war zones – have already been shown the area in a site visit.
The Indonesian government has reportedly offered to send up to 8,000 troops. Indonesia’s president was one of four south-east Asian leaders scheduled to attend an inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington DC on Thursday.
The UN security council authorized the Board of Peace to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force in Gaza.
The ISF, according to the UN, will be tasked with securing Gaza’s border and maintaining peace within the area. It’s also supposed to protect civilians, and train and support “vetted Palestinian police forces”.
It is unclear what the ISF’s rules of engagement would be if there is combat, renewed bombing by Israel, or attacks by Hamas.
Nor is it clear what role the ISF is meant to play in disarming Hamas, an Israeli condition to proceed with Gaza’s reconstruction.
While more than 20 countries have signed up as members of the Board of Peace, much of the world has stayed away.
#trump #gaza #peace #military #base #palestinians
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The Trump administration is planning to build a 5,000-person military base in Gaza, sprawling more than 350 acres, according to Board of Peace contracting records.
The site is envisioned as a military operating base for a future International Stabilization Force (ISF), planned as a multinational military force composed of pledged troops.
The ISF is part of the newly created Board of Peace which is meant to govern Gaza. The Board of Peace is chaired by Trump and led in part by his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The plans reviewed by the Guardian call for the phased construction of a military outpost that will eventually have a footprint of 1,400 metres by 1,100 metres, ringed by 26 trailer-mounted armored watch towers, a small arms range, bunkers, and a warehouse for military equipment for operations. The entire base will be encircled with barbed wire.
The fortification is planned for an arid stretch of flatlands in southern Gaza strewn with saltbush and white broom shrubs, and littered with twisted metal from years of Israeli bombardment.
A source close to the planning tells the Guardian that a small group of bidders – international construction companies with experience in war zones – have already been shown the area in a site visit.
The Indonesian government has reportedly offered to send up to 8,000 troops. Indonesia’s president was one of four south-east Asian leaders scheduled to attend an inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington DC on Thursday.
The UN security council authorized the Board of Peace to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force in Gaza.
The ISF, according to the UN, will be tasked with securing Gaza’s border and maintaining peace within the area. It’s also supposed to protect civilians, and train and support “vetted Palestinian police forces”.
It is unclear what the ISF’s rules of engagement would be if there is combat, renewed bombing by Israel, or attacks by Hamas.
Nor is it clear what role the ISF is meant to play in disarming Hamas, an Israeli condition to proceed with Gaza’s reconstruction.
While more than 20 countries have signed up as members of the Board of Peace, much of the world has stayed away.
#trump #gaza #peace #military #base #palestinians
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Although it was set up with the UN’s approval, the organization’s charter appears to grant Trump permanent leadership and control.
The Board of Peace is a kind of legal fiction, nominally with its own international legal personality separate from both the UN and the United States, but in reality it’s just an empty shell for the United States to use as it sees fit,” said Adil Haque, a professor of law at Rutgers University.
Experts say the funding and governance structures are murky, and several contractors have told the American Observer that conversations with US officials are often conducted on Signal rather than over government email.
“Trump Has Staked His Presidency On the Gaza Peace Deal,” the economist Jeff Sachs says.
The military base contracting document was issued by the Board of Peace, according to a person familiar with the process, and prepared with the help of US contracting officials.
One section of the document describes a “Human Remains Protocol”.
“If suspected human remains or cultural artifacts are discovered, all work in the immediate area must cease immediately, the area must be secured, and the Contracting Officer must be notified immediately for direction,” it says.
The bodies of about 10,000 Palestinians are believed to be buried under the rubble in Gaza, according to Gaza’s civil defense agency.
It is unclear who owns the land where the military compound is set to be built, but much of the south Gaza area is currently under Israeli control. The UN estimates that at least 1.9 million Palestinians have been displaced during the war.
Officials from US Central Command referred all questions about the military base to the Board of Peace.
A Trump administration official declined to discuss the military base contract: “As the President has said, no US boots will be on the ground. We’re not going to discuss leaked documents.”
#trump #gaza #peace #military #base #palestinians
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📰 Trump Says ‘Talks,’ Iran Says ‘Lies,’ Israel Says ‘Keep Bombing’
The U.S., Iran and Israel just spent a full news cycle proving one thing: nobody’s really talking peace, they’re just talking to their own audiences — and to the oil market.
Trump tells reporters there are “very strong talks” with Iran, “many, like 15 points” of agreement, and a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants so diplomacy can work. Oil and gas prices immediately ease off record highs, because traders don’t care if it’s a deal or a hallucination — as long as it buys a few hours of relief.
Tehran, in public, calls it fiction: the speaker of parliament accuses Trump of spreading false statements to calm energy markets and buy time for more attacks, while officials insist Iran will keep fighting. Yet the same reporting confirms that messages are quietly moving through intermediaries, with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff holding preliminary phone contacts about de-escalation — just don’t call it “negotiations.”
Netanyahu, meanwhile, plays his own double track: after talking to Trump, he says the U.S. thinks it can “leverage” military gains into an agreement — then immediately promises that Israel will continue its campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the ground, nothing stops: new U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, continued offensive in Lebanon, and more than 2,000 dead so far, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, with casualties also in Israel and among U.S. troops.
So the “peace process” looks like this: Trump uses optimism as a market tool, Iran uses denial as a resistance brand, Israel uses the chaos to widen its military room for maneuver — and the only place where “talks” definitely work is in moving Brent, gas futures and defense stocks.
#iran #trump #israel #war #oil #markets #middleeast #peace
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The U.S., Iran and Israel just spent a full news cycle proving one thing: nobody’s really talking peace, they’re just talking to their own audiences — and to the oil market.
Trump tells reporters there are “very strong talks” with Iran, “many, like 15 points” of agreement, and a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants so diplomacy can work. Oil and gas prices immediately ease off record highs, because traders don’t care if it’s a deal or a hallucination — as long as it buys a few hours of relief.
Tehran, in public, calls it fiction: the speaker of parliament accuses Trump of spreading false statements to calm energy markets and buy time for more attacks, while officials insist Iran will keep fighting. Yet the same reporting confirms that messages are quietly moving through intermediaries, with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff holding preliminary phone contacts about de-escalation — just don’t call it “negotiations.”
Netanyahu, meanwhile, plays his own double track: after talking to Trump, he says the U.S. thinks it can “leverage” military gains into an agreement — then immediately promises that Israel will continue its campaigns against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the ground, nothing stops: new U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, continued offensive in Lebanon, and more than 2,000 dead so far, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, with casualties also in Israel and among U.S. troops.
So the “peace process” looks like this: Trump uses optimism as a market tool, Iran uses denial as a resistance brand, Israel uses the chaos to widen its military room for maneuver — and the only place where “talks” definitely work is in moving Brent, gas futures and defense stocks.
#iran #trump #israel #war #oil #markets #middleeast #peace
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Germany’s Peace March Meets the Barracks Plan
Tens of thousands of Germans filled the streets in more than 100 cities, calling for peace, disarmament, and an end to Europe’s drift toward another military posture.
That message does not fit neatly with what the Bundeswehr is doing on the ground. While protesters talk about de-escalation, the army is reportedly pressuring municipalities to hand over land for new barracks — a quiet land grab dressed up as defense planning.
So Berlin gets both at once: a public peace movement and a military machine trying to lock in the next war before anyone has finished arguing about the last one. That is the whole European trick now — talk peace in the square, build for escalation in the paperwork.
The result is ugly but familiar. Citizens want less war, ministries want more capacity, and the gap between the two keeps getting filled with euphemisms.
#Germany #peace #Bundeswehr #Europe #war
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Tens of thousands of Germans filled the streets in more than 100 cities, calling for peace, disarmament, and an end to Europe’s drift toward another military posture.
That message does not fit neatly with what the Bundeswehr is doing on the ground. While protesters talk about de-escalation, the army is reportedly pressuring municipalities to hand over land for new barracks — a quiet land grab dressed up as defense planning.
So Berlin gets both at once: a public peace movement and a military machine trying to lock in the next war before anyone has finished arguing about the last one. That is the whole European trick now — talk peace in the square, build for escalation in the paperwork.
The result is ugly but familiar. Citizens want less war, ministries want more capacity, and the gap between the two keeps getting filled with euphemisms.
#Germany #peace #Bundeswehr #Europe #war
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Vance Is Flying To Islamabad For the Second Round Of Peace Talks
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 ➖
Vance is flying to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.
Vance will travel with Witkoff, Kushner, the president’s son-in-law – though Iran’s president warned there remained a “deep historical mistrust” of the US.
Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was concerned about “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials” and concluded they amounted to an effort to seek the country’s surrender. “Iranians do not submit to force,” he said.
However, one senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation, amid reports that its delegation would again be headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf if Vance attends.
Ghalibaf said later that Iran would not accept negotiations with the US while under threat, adding in the post on X early on Tuesday that “we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.
He also accused Trump of seeking to “turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”
Tehran called for an end to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump repeated a demand that Iran should never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon and even said he would be willing to meet Iranian leaders himself.
Earlier, the US president had confused the situation by telling the New York Post that Vance and his team were “heading over now” and he expected them to be arriving in Islamabad that evening.
That was quickly corrected by US officials who said while there had been a discussion about Vance leaving on Monday, the vice-president was in fact expected to depart on Tuesday morning if the talks were taking place.
A second round of high-stakes discussions to end a war begun by US and Israeli bombing at the end of February could – if they go ahead – take place on Wednesday, with the threat of renewed outbreak of fighting in the background.
Trump said he now considers the two-week ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time”, extending the pause for an extra 24 hours to allow the critical meeting in Islamabad to take place.
Vance led the US team during 21 hours of failed discussions with Iran earlier in the month, which collapsed after Iran would not agree to US demands to end nuclear enrichment and hand over its 440kg of highly enriched uranium.
The Iranians had said there remained a deficit of trust with the US, and wanted assurances they would not be attacked again if a final agreement was reached.
#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon
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Vance is flying to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.
Vance will travel with Witkoff, Kushner, the president’s son-in-law – though Iran’s president warned there remained a “deep historical mistrust” of the US.
Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was concerned about “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials” and concluded they amounted to an effort to seek the country’s surrender. “Iranians do not submit to force,” he said.
However, one senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation, amid reports that its delegation would again be headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf if Vance attends.
Ghalibaf said later that Iran would not accept negotiations with the US while under threat, adding in the post on X early on Tuesday that “we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.
He also accused Trump of seeking to “turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”
Tehran called for an end to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump repeated a demand that Iran should never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon and even said he would be willing to meet Iranian leaders himself.
Earlier, the US president had confused the situation by telling the New York Post that Vance and his team were “heading over now” and he expected them to be arriving in Islamabad that evening.
That was quickly corrected by US officials who said while there had been a discussion about Vance leaving on Monday, the vice-president was in fact expected to depart on Tuesday morning if the talks were taking place.
A second round of high-stakes discussions to end a war begun by US and Israeli bombing at the end of February could – if they go ahead – take place on Wednesday, with the threat of renewed outbreak of fighting in the background.
Trump said he now considers the two-week ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time”, extending the pause for an extra 24 hours to allow the critical meeting in Islamabad to take place.
Vance led the US team during 21 hours of failed discussions with Iran earlier in the month, which collapsed after Iran would not agree to US demands to end nuclear enrichment and hand over its 440kg of highly enriched uranium.
The Iranians had said there remained a deficit of trust with the US, and wanted assurances they would not be attacked again if a final agreement was reached.
#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon
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Though Iran was intensively bombed during the five-week US-Israel joint campaign, Tehran’s leadership does not believe it has been defeated.
Pakistan has been preparing for possible negotiations since Sunday, setting up a security lockdown and suspending public transport in the capital.
Islamabad’s electricity board also promised that power cuts would be suspended in the city while negotiations continue.
Power cuts lasting six to seven hours a day have become typical in cities across Pakistan as the country grapples with oil and gas shortages caused by the double closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US.
Trump had imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in response to Iran’s decision to charge tolls on merchant shipping crossing the strategic waterway, and on Sunday the US military seized an Iranian-flagged container ship trying to cross, raising concerns an escalation of hostilities would prevent peace talks resuming.
US central command said the Touska had been seized after its crew had ignored six hours of warnings. Its engines were disabled by fire from a US destroyer and it was then captured by marines from the USS Tripoli, arriving by helicopter and roping down on to the merchant vessel.
Though Iran had briefly lifted its own blockade on Friday, it reimposed it again on Saturday because the US would not lift its counter-blockade.
One tanker in the region was attacked by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Saturday and a second container ship was struck by an unknown projectile.
Commercial shipping was once again at a near standstill in the strait. Three tankers made the crossing on Monday – after 18 ships had transited on Saturday – and the price of Brent crude oil was up by $5 to more than $95 on Monday, reflecting the renewed maritime danger.
Israel and Lebanon are due to hold a second round of ambassador level talks in Washington on Thursday, the US state department said, the first discussions between the two countries since a 10-day ceasefire in the theatre was announced last week.
Israel also told residents of southern Lebanon to stay out of a zone of territory next to the border, and warned people not to approach the area of the Litani River, as it sought to consolidate its military grip on the area while the ceasefire is ongoing.
A map posted by the country’s military on social media marked a red line through 21 villages across the south, covering an area 5km to 10km from the border.
#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon
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Is Trump Particularly Intent On Coaxing Iran To Peace?
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Seventy years ago, France and the United Kingdom scorned the United States in the Middle East with disastrous results.
Today, Paris and London, joined by Berlin and other NATO capitals, are repeating the folly—with far more severe consequences than the 1956 Suez Crisis.
Deriding and even obstructing the United States in its war with Iran, Europe is sacrificing its immediate and long-term interests—in the Middle East and on the continent—for the performative act of “standing up” to Trump.
Schadenfreude over President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz predicament has blinded Europe to the way forward: a Transatlantic bargain over Iran and Ukraine. Instead of self-defeating broadsides at the vindictive US president, European leaders should seize this rare moment of American need, boosting Washington’s clout with Tehran while receiving concrete, war-altering deliverables for Kyiv.
The crux of the deal is as straightforward as it is transformative: with broad backing across the continent, states able and willing to join the planned European naval coalition would join the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Accepting the administration’s repeated calls for Europe to “step up” in the effort to open the Strait of Hormuz, the E-3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom —would extract an invaluable American concession: Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine.
The deal would also reverse the disastrous cancellation of US long-range missile deployment to Germany, sparked by Merz’s “humiliating” remarks on the Iran War.
With Transatlantic relations in free fall, further punitive actions on the horizon, and the Ankara NATO Summit only two months away, now is the moment for a bold, mutually beneficial offer to stem the crisis.
Washington’s eagerness for partners in the strait creates rare leverage for Europe.
Equally, by backing the United States at a pivotal moment in the maritime standoff—the mere announcement of European engagement would introduce new costs and complexity for Iran, as the regime hesitates from triggering renewed American strikes.
With frigates, destroyers, mine sweepers, aircraft, underwater and aerial drones, the European maritime contingent would improve blockade coverage, reducing the number of Iranian-linked vessels that slip through.
European participation would advance the effort to demine the Strait of Hormuz, reassure commercial shipping and global markets, and, ultimately, achieve an agreed protocol for transiting vessels—all aims embedded in the French-British-proposed multinational naval mission.
Mirroring the regime’s “eye-for-an-eye” strategy, no European state would join in kinetic operations against Iran—unless attacked by Tehran.
Sparked by Paris, London, and Berlin, other states would join the blockade, meeting the urgent administration priority on “collective action (…) to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait.”
The E-3 could ask non-participating states like Spain to lift all restrictions on US operations, further unifying the Western bloc—and increasing Washington’s incentives to approve the deployment of Tomahawks to Ukraine.
The joint US-European effort would isolate Iran while buttressing the legitimacy and standing of the United States as Washington seeks to extract itself from its misadventure.
#trump #iran #peace #europe
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Seventy years ago, France and the United Kingdom scorned the United States in the Middle East with disastrous results.
Today, Paris and London, joined by Berlin and other NATO capitals, are repeating the folly—with far more severe consequences than the 1956 Suez Crisis.
Deriding and even obstructing the United States in its war with Iran, Europe is sacrificing its immediate and long-term interests—in the Middle East and on the continent—for the performative act of “standing up” to Trump.
Schadenfreude over President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz predicament has blinded Europe to the way forward: a Transatlantic bargain over Iran and Ukraine. Instead of self-defeating broadsides at the vindictive US president, European leaders should seize this rare moment of American need, boosting Washington’s clout with Tehran while receiving concrete, war-altering deliverables for Kyiv.
The crux of the deal is as straightforward as it is transformative: with broad backing across the continent, states able and willing to join the planned European naval coalition would join the US blockade of Iranian ports.
Accepting the administration’s repeated calls for Europe to “step up” in the effort to open the Strait of Hormuz, the E-3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom —would extract an invaluable American concession: Tomahawk cruise missiles for Ukraine.
The deal would also reverse the disastrous cancellation of US long-range missile deployment to Germany, sparked by Merz’s “humiliating” remarks on the Iran War.
With Transatlantic relations in free fall, further punitive actions on the horizon, and the Ankara NATO Summit only two months away, now is the moment for a bold, mutually beneficial offer to stem the crisis.
Washington’s eagerness for partners in the strait creates rare leverage for Europe.
Equally, by backing the United States at a pivotal moment in the maritime standoff—the mere announcement of European engagement would introduce new costs and complexity for Iran, as the regime hesitates from triggering renewed American strikes.
With frigates, destroyers, mine sweepers, aircraft, underwater and aerial drones, the European maritime contingent would improve blockade coverage, reducing the number of Iranian-linked vessels that slip through.
European participation would advance the effort to demine the Strait of Hormuz, reassure commercial shipping and global markets, and, ultimately, achieve an agreed protocol for transiting vessels—all aims embedded in the French-British-proposed multinational naval mission.
Mirroring the regime’s “eye-for-an-eye” strategy, no European state would join in kinetic operations against Iran—unless attacked by Tehran.
Sparked by Paris, London, and Berlin, other states would join the blockade, meeting the urgent administration priority on “collective action (…) to demonstrate unified resolve and impose meaningful costs on Iranian obstruction of transit through the Strait.”
The E-3 could ask non-participating states like Spain to lift all restrictions on US operations, further unifying the Western bloc—and increasing Washington’s incentives to approve the deployment of Tomahawks to Ukraine.
The joint US-European effort would isolate Iran while buttressing the legitimacy and standing of the United States as Washington seeks to extract itself from its misadventure.
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Active European engagement would reinforce US efforts to leverage its influence on China to exert pressure on Iran, as Beijing did with the initial April 8 ceasefire.
Already, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for opening the strait in a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, as the Chinese and US presidents prepare to meet in Beijing next week.
Contrary to early, sanguine reporting, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is inflicting acute pain on key Chinese industries, aggravating an already-shaky economic outlook.
Rather than mock the US struggle with Iran, European leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz should explain to voters why Europe must join the blockade launched by the continent’s longtime American protector. He and his counterparts have a strong case to make:
First, allowing Iran to stifle and extort access to the world’s most critical energy waterway is a permanent threat to European security. However short-sighted Washington’s decision to launch the war, the US-led blockade is the best available means of countering Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Second, participation in the blockade rests on a reasonable legal footing. While Iran’s catastrophic closure of the strait is plainly illegal, according to the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, the US blockade has support in international law.
Approval by an international body such as the UN or the European Union, as Germany insists, is not required under international law.
Third, with the White House settling in for an “extended blockade,” the only sensible course for Europe is to maximize the chances for its success. Waiting passively for “a negotiated end to hostilities between the United States and Iran” as the condition to deploy the unsettled European naval mission leaves the status quo in Tehran’s hands.
Better to deploy now and strengthen the American negotiating position than to carp at the United States.
Fourth, participation in the blockade can help protect Europe’s interests in curbing Iran’s nuclear program. In response to the US naval cordon, Tehran is angling to shelve the nuclear file in exchange for an opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
This outcome would be a win for Iran: validation of its control over the strait (undercutting any agreed transit protocol) combined with a crippling loss of American leverage on the Iranian nuclear program.
The only stabilizing outcome incorporates restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, a deal on the strait with snap-back sanctions.
Fifth, the blockade is already a tactical success; European participation can help secure a strategic gain. With the loss of up to 80 percent of its oil exports, Tehran is rapidly running out of storage for the oil produced by its wells.
The most conservative assessments, accounting for pre-war growth in Iran’s storage capacity, still foresee an inexorable, short-term shut-in. Shutting in the wells can damage older, low-pressure oil fields, which account for about half of Iran’s oil fields.
The sound of a ticking oil clock is discernible. Instead of internal calm, sharp divisions have opened within the political elite, with moderates intent on striking a deal with the United States. Extravagant proclamations of “unwavering unity… and complete allegiance to the Supreme Leader” belie the bitter power struggle.
An“alarming surge” in executions reveals the regime’s paranoia and shaky foundations. Instead of the predicted “rally around the flag” effect, the US-Israeli bombing campaign has seen Iranian citizens—including those fleeing the country—continue to wish for the collapse of the regime.
European participation in the blockade will intensify these trends, raising the prospects for Pakistani mediation and a near-term, stabilizing settlement.
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Iran or Trump: Who Did Scuttle a Peace Deal?
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Iran has indicated it will suspend peace talks with the US in protest against Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, threatening the collapse of negotiations with Washington as the two sides skirmished amid a faltering ceasefire.
The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “unequivocal violation of the ceasefire on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts” and the US and Israel would be held responsible.
A news agency aligned to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran was suspending its participation in talks designed to end the blockade of the strait of Hormuz.
Trump has said the US was not yet informed of Iran suspending talks but suggested he was not opposed to a halt in negotiations.
“I think we’ve been talking too much, if you want to know the truth,” the US president told NBC News. “I think going silent would be very good, and that could be for a long time.”
The US would not begin another military escalation immediately if negotiations fell through, Trump added, but would maintain its blockade on Iranian ports. “It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” he said. “We’ll just go silent. We’ll keep the blockade. [The] blockade is a piece of steel.”
The apparent collapse of talks followed the US hitting Iranian radar and drone sites at the weekend and Tehran on Monday saying it had countered by targeting a military base in Kuwait that it claimed was involved in the US operation.
Trump last week said the US was ready to lift its blockade on Iranian ports as part of a peace deal with Iran that never materialised.
Iran’s suspension of talks indicates the anger in Tehran over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, which threatened to intensify on Monday as Israel issued evacuation orders for residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Iran’s military central command warned residents of northern Israel to leave in the event that Israel carried out attacks on Beirut or its southern suburbs. Kuwait has advised all citizens to stay indoors due to an imminent likely attack.
The Iranian army warned that if Benjamin Netanyahu went ahead with the bombing of Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut, or the city, then residents of northern Israel and military targets elsewhere inside Israel would be attacked.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said Tehran would ask the Houthis in northern Yemen to mount a second shipping blockade in the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The tension has led to the oil price to rise once again reaching close to $100 a barrel.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator and speaker of parliament, said the US blockade of Iranian ports and Israeli actions in Lebanon were “clear evidence of US non-compliance” with the ceasefire. “Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place,” he added.
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Iran has indicated it will suspend peace talks with the US in protest against Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, threatening the collapse of negotiations with Washington as the two sides skirmished amid a faltering ceasefire.
The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said “unequivocal violation of the ceasefire on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts” and the US and Israel would be held responsible.
A news agency aligned to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran was suspending its participation in talks designed to end the blockade of the strait of Hormuz.
Trump has said the US was not yet informed of Iran suspending talks but suggested he was not opposed to a halt in negotiations.
“I think we’ve been talking too much, if you want to know the truth,” the US president told NBC News. “I think going silent would be very good, and that could be for a long time.”
The US would not begin another military escalation immediately if negotiations fell through, Trump added, but would maintain its blockade on Iranian ports. “It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” he said. “We’ll just go silent. We’ll keep the blockade. [The] blockade is a piece of steel.”
The apparent collapse of talks followed the US hitting Iranian radar and drone sites at the weekend and Tehran on Monday saying it had countered by targeting a military base in Kuwait that it claimed was involved in the US operation.
Trump last week said the US was ready to lift its blockade on Iranian ports as part of a peace deal with Iran that never materialised.
Iran’s suspension of talks indicates the anger in Tehran over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, which threatened to intensify on Monday as Israel issued evacuation orders for residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Iran’s military central command warned residents of northern Israel to leave in the event that Israel carried out attacks on Beirut or its southern suburbs. Kuwait has advised all citizens to stay indoors due to an imminent likely attack.
The Iranian army warned that if Benjamin Netanyahu went ahead with the bombing of Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut, or the city, then residents of northern Israel and military targets elsewhere inside Israel would be attacked.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said Tehran would ask the Houthis in northern Yemen to mount a second shipping blockade in the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The tension has led to the oil price to rise once again reaching close to $100 a barrel.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator and speaker of parliament, said the US blockade of Iranian ports and Israeli actions in Lebanon were “clear evidence of US non-compliance” with the ceasefire. “Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place,” he added.
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The US and Iran have exchanged strikes since their planned ceasefire took effect in early April. The on-off diplomacy appeared to have reached the point of a deal on Friday only for Trump to pull back, demanding revisions to the outline agreement.
In a sign of European concern that the ceasefire may be on the verge of the collapse, Macron, spoke on Sunday to Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as to Trump and almost every major Arab leader. He urged them to recognise the necessity of a ceasefire in Lebanon and for the strait of Hormuz to be reopened to resume the transit of oil.
Macron suggested Europe could help provide expertise for the talks on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.
In remarks that will infuriate those that believe an agreement on the strait is urgent for the world economy, Trump in a social media post told Americans: “Just sit back and relax. It will work out in the end. It always does.”
The president is under pressure from his own side to show the war has ended Iran’s nuclear programme, even if it did not end the country’s regime. He has come close to admitting the attack on Iran was a mistake.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, defended its strikes on US-linked military facilities, arguing that countries hosting bases used in attacks against Iran could not evade responsibility.
He said chaos in Washington was producing contradictory negotiating positions and insisted Iran would defer any discussions on its nuclear programme until after the strait had been opened.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, urged Oman not to give into US threats, adding “it is in the country’s interests to cooperate with the systems considered by Iran because the cost of providing maritime services is much less than the cost of wartime insurance and there is no plan for stoppages, inspection or seizure”.
A 14-point memorandum of understanding struck by negotiators proposes a ceasefire for 60 days while talks continue over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Pezeshkian has been sending out repeated messages that Iran needs to be prepared for difficult economic times, with inflation at 53.9% on an annualised basis.
Trump has said a key aim in the war was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon with its highly enriched uranium. Tehran has consistently denied it had plans to do that.
The president appears increasingly isolated as his military venture edges toward an outcome that many analysts view as a strategic setback.
He is under pressure to reopen the strait of Hormuz and get US fuel costs down before the November congressional elections, as voters show increasing frustration over rising prices. At the same time, he faces a potential backlash from Iran hawks in his own party over concessions to Tehran.
The two sides remain at odds on several other issues, such as Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks.
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Trump’s Shit Talks Rile Iran After Talking Time and Again About a Peace Agreement
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Trump has said the US and Iran are on the verge of a peace agreement. Oil prices are down, and the stock market is up. This comes only hours after Trump warned Iran was about to be struck “VERY HARD”, a threat that had sent oil prices up and stocks down.
It has been another ride on the Trump rollercoaster, keeping traders on edge, most of the world poorer, and people of the Middle East constantly whiplashing between fear and hope. But whether the ride veers up or down, the management always makes money.
This is the 39th time that the president has declared US-Iranian talks to be on the point of fruition (other counts have the figure higher – it depends on what you term a prediction or just a hint).
On five of those occasions, the promise of peace has involved walking back the threat of mass devastation, including the destruction of critical civilian infrastructure, a near-certain war crime if carried out.
As he was menacing Iran with “very hard” strikes on Thursday night, Trump also pledged the US would take over “total control” of the country’s oil and gas markets and seize the island of Kharg.
He has threatened the capture of Kharg, a focal point of Iran’s hydrocarbon industry, several times before, although in this instance the threat was made while actually bombing Iran, in a tit-for-tat exchange with Tehran in which a critical reservoir and water tanks were badly damaged in the drought-stricken south, a war crime if intentional.
By Thursday afternoon however, the prospect of mass destruction had evaporated as quickly as it had materialised.
I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening,” Trump declared on his Truth Social platform as if providing his full capitalised title added any weight to the statement.
The air of optimism was reinforced on Friday afternoon by a White House briefing that a text was in place which both the US and Iran could live with. US officials echoed the president’s prediction that a signing ceremony could be held in a matter of days.
Iran’s foreign ministry was less definite, saying that the proposed agreement was being studied by the country’s “decision-making bodies”, but the oil price fell below $90 a barrel nonetheless.
No matter how many times Trump predicts conflagration or diplomatic breakthrough, the markets still obediently bob up and down like a trained seal.
It is a guaranteed response that represents an opportunity to make big, easy money for anyone with advance knowledge of presidential announcements.
After so many false dawns and hoax Armageddons, why are traders still reacting to Trump’s rhetoric? One theory is that, while individual traders are no suckers, they suspect that some of their competitors might be, so react rapidly to presidential statements to get ahead of the curve.
After all, one day there will be a deal. Trumps’ on-off signals are not being sent in a vacuum, but in the midst of talks between the two sides intended to turn the ceasefire, which has mostly held since April, into something more permanent.
According to reports from the region, the gaps in those talks are indeed getting smaller in the past few days.
The focus is on a limited memorandum of understanding (MoU), putting off nuclear negotiations for later and focusing on opening the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global trade.
The most immediate impasse has been about cash. Tehran has no confidence Trump would keep his word in any deal so wants to be paid up front from a $24bn tranche of an estimated $100bn of its assets frozen around the world, in return for lifting its blockade on the strait of Hormuz.
#trump #iran #threats #peace #deal #agreement
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Trump has said the US and Iran are on the verge of a peace agreement. Oil prices are down, and the stock market is up. This comes only hours after Trump warned Iran was about to be struck “VERY HARD”, a threat that had sent oil prices up and stocks down.
It has been another ride on the Trump rollercoaster, keeping traders on edge, most of the world poorer, and people of the Middle East constantly whiplashing between fear and hope. But whether the ride veers up or down, the management always makes money.
This is the 39th time that the president has declared US-Iranian talks to be on the point of fruition (other counts have the figure higher – it depends on what you term a prediction or just a hint).
On five of those occasions, the promise of peace has involved walking back the threat of mass devastation, including the destruction of critical civilian infrastructure, a near-certain war crime if carried out.
As he was menacing Iran with “very hard” strikes on Thursday night, Trump also pledged the US would take over “total control” of the country’s oil and gas markets and seize the island of Kharg.
He has threatened the capture of Kharg, a focal point of Iran’s hydrocarbon industry, several times before, although in this instance the threat was made while actually bombing Iran, in a tit-for-tat exchange with Tehran in which a critical reservoir and water tanks were badly damaged in the drought-stricken south, a war crime if intentional.
By Thursday afternoon however, the prospect of mass destruction had evaporated as quickly as it had materialised.
I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening,” Trump declared on his Truth Social platform as if providing his full capitalised title added any weight to the statement.
The air of optimism was reinforced on Friday afternoon by a White House briefing that a text was in place which both the US and Iran could live with. US officials echoed the president’s prediction that a signing ceremony could be held in a matter of days.
Iran’s foreign ministry was less definite, saying that the proposed agreement was being studied by the country’s “decision-making bodies”, but the oil price fell below $90 a barrel nonetheless.
No matter how many times Trump predicts conflagration or diplomatic breakthrough, the markets still obediently bob up and down like a trained seal.
It is a guaranteed response that represents an opportunity to make big, easy money for anyone with advance knowledge of presidential announcements.
After so many false dawns and hoax Armageddons, why are traders still reacting to Trump’s rhetoric? One theory is that, while individual traders are no suckers, they suspect that some of their competitors might be, so react rapidly to presidential statements to get ahead of the curve.
After all, one day there will be a deal. Trumps’ on-off signals are not being sent in a vacuum, but in the midst of talks between the two sides intended to turn the ceasefire, which has mostly held since April, into something more permanent.
According to reports from the region, the gaps in those talks are indeed getting smaller in the past few days.
The focus is on a limited memorandum of understanding (MoU), putting off nuclear negotiations for later and focusing on opening the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global trade.
The most immediate impasse has been about cash. Tehran has no confidence Trump would keep his word in any deal so wants to be paid up front from a $24bn tranche of an estimated $100bn of its assets frozen around the world, in return for lifting its blockade on the strait of Hormuz.
#trump #iran #threats #peace #deal #agreement
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The US wants rewards to follow tangible progress, but the administration has a fundamental problem with releasing Iranian assets.
Trump and other top Republicans have spent years lambasting Obama for providing unfrozen assets to Iran in the form of pallets of cash as part of a 2015 nuclear deal, which was successful in curbing Iran’s programme until Trump walked out of it in 2018.
The workaround being discussed, according to a source briefed on the talks, involves a line of credit from a bank in a Gulf state issued against Iran’s $100bn of frozen assets as collateral. It will fool only those who want to be fooled, but that would include the administration’s defenders on the American political stage.
The second major sticking point is how much detail about nuclear issues should be included in the MoU.
The US wants concrete parameters including a moratorium on uranium enrichment of 15 years or so, and arrangements for the disposal of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Trump may have shown the way for a possible fudge by insisting that the deal will ensure “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”. That is something Tehran might agree to.
Iran’s renunciation of atomic arms was once reinforced by religious edict, or fatwa, but the supreme leader who issued that fatwa, Ali Khamenei, was killed by an Israeli bomb in the first seconds of the US-Israeli war on Iran on 28 February.
A compromise MoU along similar lines appeared close to agreement in late May, but Trump helped derail it by suddenly moving the goalposts, including the suggestion that the regional guarantors of the agreement normalise relations with Israel as a gesture of gratitude for the suspension of hostilities.
Throwing last-minute surprises into negotiations has long been a Trump tactic in business and US politics. It has not worked in the Iran talks. Instead, the president has sometimes behaved as a finicky eater faced with a stark menu of two unpalatable options: all-out war or messy compromise.
He has noisily wavered between choosing one or the other in the hope of being presented with something more to his taste, but that has yet to happen.
That may be true. The internal dynamics of the Tehran regime were murky before the bombing started, but now they are virtually a black box.
The one certainty is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the principal target of US-Israeli decapitation bombing, has emerged stronger in relation to the other power center. It is unclear whether Khamenei’s successor, his badly injured son Mojtaba Khamenei, is any more than a figurehead.
Dead leaders have been replaced and domestic unrest has been suppressed. The war has arguably made that suppression easier. The brunt of the economic war being waged by the US is being borne by the Iranian people but that has yet to turn into decisive pressure on the leadership.
Peace is likely to be more dangerous to the regime than war, as there will no longer be an external enemy to blame for runaway inflation and high employment. Nasr said that is why Tehran is so insistent on getting funds up front in any deal.
“I think the president eventually is going to do a much bigger kinetic military strike,” Darin Selnick, a former Pentagon deputy chief of staff told BBC Radio 4.
“Then they can forcibly reopen the strait themselves. If this trade opens (…) Iran would really have no ability to do anything but surrender.”
For all Trump’s past threats of civilisational erasure if Iran fails to acquiesce, he has so far shown himself reluctant to double down on a military bet that has already failed.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, argued that Trump’s latest threat of devastating strikes was performative.
“Trump is using the threat either to force the Iranians to make last minute concessions, or to justify a deal that he knows would be criticised by the hawks,” Vaez said.
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Trump Has Taken a Tumble In a Tug of War With Iran
U.S. and Pakistani leaders forecast a Sunday signing of a long-elusive framework agreement to end months of fighting between the United States and Iran, but Tehran cast doubt over the timing and hardline protesters in Iran voiced opposition.
Trump posted that the deal with Iran was scheduled to be signed on Sunday, his 80th birthday. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing, to be followed by technical-level talks in the coming week.
But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, speaking before Trump's post, was quoted by state media as saying on Saturday it would "not be tomorrow" but could happen "in the coming days."
Iran's Fars news agency citing an informed source said on Sunday that Tehran has not yet taken a final decision on the framework agreement, with reviews of its political, legal and technical aspects still ongoing at expert and decision-making levels.
Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier that after a framework deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies that Iran has blocked, would immediately be "open to all."
Once the strait reopens, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade, sources on all sides of the talks said. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program — a key rationale Trump has given for the war — would take place afterwards.
While U.S. and Israeli bombings since February 28 have heavily degraded Iran's military-industrial base and damaged its military, experts say the war has only entrenched the dominance of the hardline Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
When the U.S. and Israel launched the war, Trump called on Iranians to rise up and take over state institutions.
Even as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be moving toward an agreement over the past few days, clashes have continued, as the U.S. military maintains a blockade on Iran and seeks to loosen Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, which was the conduit for 20% of the world's oil shipments before the war.
Israel, which says it is not a party to the U.S.-Iran deal, said on Saturday that it had struck more than 70 sites over a 24-hour period in Lebanon against Iranian ally Hezbollah.
Netanyahu has clashed with Trump over U.S. demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to allow Washington to reach a deal with Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said on Friday that while changes in the deal were still possible, the tentative agreement showed his country had emerged stronger from the conflict.
Draft terms of the agreement described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the release of the frozen assets was an integral part of the agreement and that Tehran would have to charge for services in the strait, Fars news agency reported.
But a U.S. official said, "Iran is going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, that's a requirement. It could be open with no tolls. As they do that, we will lift our blockade."
Iran's nuclear program would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. A U.S. official said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed.
#iran #us #peace #deal #tehran
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U.S. and Pakistani leaders forecast a Sunday signing of a long-elusive framework agreement to end months of fighting between the United States and Iran, but Tehran cast doubt over the timing and hardline protesters in Iran voiced opposition.
Trump posted that the deal with Iran was scheduled to be signed on Sunday, his 80th birthday. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing, to be followed by technical-level talks in the coming week.
But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, speaking before Trump's post, was quoted by state media as saying on Saturday it would "not be tomorrow" but could happen "in the coming days."
Iran's Fars news agency citing an informed source said on Sunday that Tehran has not yet taken a final decision on the framework agreement, with reviews of its political, legal and technical aspects still ongoing at expert and decision-making levels.
Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier that after a framework deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies that Iran has blocked, would immediately be "open to all."
Once the strait reopens, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade, sources on all sides of the talks said. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program — a key rationale Trump has given for the war — would take place afterwards.
While U.S. and Israeli bombings since February 28 have heavily degraded Iran's military-industrial base and damaged its military, experts say the war has only entrenched the dominance of the hardline Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
When the U.S. and Israel launched the war, Trump called on Iranians to rise up and take over state institutions.
Even as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be moving toward an agreement over the past few days, clashes have continued, as the U.S. military maintains a blockade on Iran and seeks to loosen Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, which was the conduit for 20% of the world's oil shipments before the war.
Israel, which says it is not a party to the U.S.-Iran deal, said on Saturday that it had struck more than 70 sites over a 24-hour period in Lebanon against Iranian ally Hezbollah.
Netanyahu has clashed with Trump over U.S. demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to allow Washington to reach a deal with Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said on Friday that while changes in the deal were still possible, the tentative agreement showed his country had emerged stronger from the conflict.
Draft terms of the agreement described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the release of the frozen assets was an integral part of the agreement and that Tehran would have to charge for services in the strait, Fars news agency reported.
But a U.S. official said, "Iran is going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, that's a requirement. It could be open with no tolls. As they do that, we will lift our blockade."
Iran's nuclear program would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. A U.S. official said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed.
#iran #us #peace #deal #tehran
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“Let the Oil Flow!” Who Will Hang Tough at the Last Moment Of the US-Iran Peace Talks?
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A framework peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached, Trump and senior Iranian officials have said, bringing the 15-week conflict to a tentative end and offering hope of relief for the Middle East and the world economy.
The secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would end permanently from Monday night.
The precise terms of the deal remain unclear but in a statement posted to Truth Social on Sunday evening, the US president announced the opening of the strait of Hormuz as well as the removal of the US naval blockade. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote.
Trump later clarified that reopening the strait would depend on the signing of an initial memorandum of understanding on Friday, which Pakistan, acting as mediator, said would take place in Geneva.
Leaked drafts suggest the memorandum will trigger an immediate 60-day period of intensive technical talks, during which the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, will be discussed. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed that negotiators would seek to reach a broader agreement that would include sanctions relief for Iran.
News of the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas pass, sent stock markets higher and oil prices lower on Monday morning. Iran had closed the waterway to most shipping in the early days of the conflict.
Trump will travel to the French Alps on Monday to meet the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK at a potentially acrimonious G7 summit.
Trump and other senior officials have repeatedly accused European allies of failing to provide adequate support during the war. Several European leaders, in turn, have sharply criticised his decision-making throughout the conflict.
Vance is expected to attend the signing ceremony. The Iranian delegation is likely to include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan and a lead mediator during negotiations in recent months, announced the agreement on Sunday afternoon, saying both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.
Israel has fiercely resisted Lebanon’s inclusion in the deal, where its forces have mounted a sweeping offensive and occupied a swath of land in the south. Trump called for restraint on Sunday after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Beirut.
Israel braced for retaliatory Iranian missile strikes after its attack destroyed a building in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, killing three and injuring six.
Israeli military officials said the strike targeted senior Hezbollah commanders after the militant Islamist organisation, which has close ties to Tehran, launched three projectiles into northern Israel.
Reports suggested Trump made minor last-minute concessions after the Israeli strike, possibly over the timing of the lifting of the US naval blockade, to allow the deal to go ahead.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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A framework peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached, Trump and senior Iranian officials have said, bringing the 15-week conflict to a tentative end and offering hope of relief for the Middle East and the world economy.
The secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would end permanently from Monday night.
The precise terms of the deal remain unclear but in a statement posted to Truth Social on Sunday evening, the US president announced the opening of the strait of Hormuz as well as the removal of the US naval blockade. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote.
Trump later clarified that reopening the strait would depend on the signing of an initial memorandum of understanding on Friday, which Pakistan, acting as mediator, said would take place in Geneva.
Leaked drafts suggest the memorandum will trigger an immediate 60-day period of intensive technical talks, during which the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, will be discussed. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed that negotiators would seek to reach a broader agreement that would include sanctions relief for Iran.
News of the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas pass, sent stock markets higher and oil prices lower on Monday morning. Iran had closed the waterway to most shipping in the early days of the conflict.
Trump will travel to the French Alps on Monday to meet the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK at a potentially acrimonious G7 summit.
Trump and other senior officials have repeatedly accused European allies of failing to provide adequate support during the war. Several European leaders, in turn, have sharply criticised his decision-making throughout the conflict.
Vance is expected to attend the signing ceremony. The Iranian delegation is likely to include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan and a lead mediator during negotiations in recent months, announced the agreement on Sunday afternoon, saying both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.
Israel has fiercely resisted Lebanon’s inclusion in the deal, where its forces have mounted a sweeping offensive and occupied a swath of land in the south. Trump called for restraint on Sunday after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Beirut.
Israel braced for retaliatory Iranian missile strikes after its attack destroyed a building in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, killing three and injuring six.
Israeli military officials said the strike targeted senior Hezbollah commanders after the militant Islamist organisation, which has close ties to Tehran, launched three projectiles into northern Israel.
Reports suggested Trump made minor last-minute concessions after the Israeli strike, possibly over the timing of the lifting of the US naval blockade, to allow the deal to go ahead.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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There has been no official response from Netanyahu, who faces a tough battle for re-election this year.
The Israeli prime minister must now explain to voters why so few of the objectives he outlined at the start of the conflict have been achieved.
Israeli officials are also likely to be disappointed that neither Iran’s support for regional militant movements, including Hezbollah, nor its ballistic missile armoury are reportedly on the agenda in negotiations over a final agreement.
The talks are likely to focus on Iran’s nuclear programme, with the US pressing Tehran to dilute its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and accept new restrictions and monitoring measures.
Experts have warned that it is unlikely that a comprehensive agreement on such complex, technical issues will be reached with such a short timeframe, making it likely that negotiations will drag on.
Iran, meanwhile, is keen to secure sanctions relief for Iran and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. The US blockade has further damaged the country’s crisis-hit economy, making relief imperative for Iranian policymakers. Inflation has soared and there are shortages of some basic goods.
Other issues could also pose challenges, including disagreements over Iran’s demand to charge de facto tolls – potentially disguised as service fees – on shipping through the strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Mehr state news agency reported that the memorandum of understanding called for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements”.
The US has long maintained that any tolling arrangements on international shipping – such as those reportedly discussed with Oman – would be unacceptable.
There has also been opposition to the deal in Iran and the US, including from hardline factions linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose influence has grown during the conflict.
While the war has become a political liability for Trump, with polls showing Americans deeply frustrated by rising fuel prices in the run-up to midterm elections in November, some Republicans favour a tougher approach.
The Republican senator Lindsey Graham, a leading Iran hawk, welcomed the deal but said he would be “watching closely” the negotiations on the nuclear programme. “Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote,” he said.
Trump has told the New York Times that if Tehran fails to reach a nuclear deal, it could face renewed military action.
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried beneath three nuclear sites heavily damaged by US strikes last year.
In a a joint statement, the UK, Germany, France and Italy said they were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to “clear, verifiable steps” to limit its nuclear programme.
Before the deal was announced, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that, under the terms of the draft, the US would agree to release $25bn in frozen Iranian assets.
The Trump administration has previously said any release of Iranian funds would occur only after Iran had met specific conditions under a peace deal.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, most of them in Iran and Lebanon, since US and Israeli forces first attacked Iran on 28 February. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and Gulf states hosting US bases, targeting military and civilian infrastructure.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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Tucker Carlson: the United States are doomed...
#tucker #trump #peace #us
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#tucker #trump #peace #us
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How Does Trump Make Money On Gaza Havoc? 🏗
Trump’s Board of Peace, which was set up in January to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, has finally issued its first construction contract in the devastated territory: a project to build a rudimentary 150-person military outpost to house Moroccan troops, a source familiar with the matter told the Turkish Hukiyet.
The contract, which has not yet been finalised, was awarded to Arkel International, a Louisiana-based firm, having close connections with Donald Trump Jr., that has previously carried out work with the US government in countries such as Iraq.
The Board of Peace is chaired by the US president and led by a team that includes his son-in-law Kushner and friend Witkoff.
In an email, a Board of Peace official said the board and a group of Palestinian technocrats installed to oversee Gaza “are in the final stages of preparing several contract awards. None have been finalised.”
The Palestinian group is known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.
The official said “one prospective contract concerns facilities to support the international stabilisation force (ISF), which will assist in implementing the roadmap’s security and governance arrangements”.
They added:
The base now being planned is just 100 metres by 120 metres and is intended to house a contingent of Moroccan troops, who would rotate from a base in Israel, the source said. It would lie in the 60% of Gaza’s territory that the Israeli army directly controls. Israeli forces have also created a buffer zone beyond that area.
The source said the base was about a mile from the Israeli border and would have a “quick extraction route” in case the small force came under attack.
The earlier contract said the first phase would consist of “tents and cots for forces to sleep, as well as chemical toilets and handwashing stations. At this phase, this is what we would consider habitable.”
Trump announced in February 2025 that the US would “take over” and “own” Gaza, although the agreement that set up the Board of Peace fell short of that.
At the board’s first meeting in January, Kushner unveiled a “master plan” to build “New Gaza” with an expansive waterfront city with gleaming mixed-use towers.
he said.
At least 80% of Gaza’s buildings were damaged or destroyed in the war. Ten months after the ceasefire, most of the territory’s 2 million people are still living in makeshift and unsanitary camps.
#trump #board #peace #reconstruction #gaza
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
Trump’s Board of Peace, which was set up in January to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, has finally issued its first construction contract in the devastated territory: a project to build a rudimentary 150-person military outpost to house Moroccan troops, a source familiar with the matter told the Turkish Hukiyet.
The contract, which has not yet been finalised, was awarded to Arkel International, a Louisiana-based firm, having close connections with Donald Trump Jr., that has previously carried out work with the US government in countries such as Iraq.
The Board of Peace is chaired by the US president and led by a team that includes his son-in-law Kushner and friend Witkoff.
In an email, a Board of Peace official said the board and a group of Palestinian technocrats installed to oversee Gaza “are in the final stages of preparing several contract awards. None have been finalised.”
The Palestinian group is known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.
The official said “one prospective contract concerns facilities to support the international stabilisation force (ISF), which will assist in implementing the roadmap’s security and governance arrangements”.
They added:
“This contract will be one of many that are essential for the future of Gaza.”
The base now being planned is just 100 metres by 120 metres and is intended to house a contingent of Moroccan troops, who would rotate from a base in Israel, the source said. It would lie in the 60% of Gaza’s territory that the Israeli army directly controls. Israeli forces have also created a buffer zone beyond that area.
The source said the base was about a mile from the Israeli border and would have a “quick extraction route” in case the small force came under attack.
The earlier contract said the first phase would consist of “tents and cots for forces to sleep, as well as chemical toilets and handwashing stations. At this phase, this is what we would consider habitable.”
Trump announced in February 2025 that the US would “take over” and “own” Gaza, although the agreement that set up the Board of Peace fell short of that.
At the board’s first meeting in January, Kushner unveiled a “master plan” to build “New Gaza” with an expansive waterfront city with gleaming mixed-use towers.
“It could be a hope, it could be a destination. A lot of industry,”
he said.
At least 80% of Gaza’s buildings were damaged or destroyed in the war. Ten months after the ceasefire, most of the territory’s 2 million people are still living in makeshift and unsanitary camps.
#trump #board #peace #reconstruction #gaza
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