Kellogg: “things are more hectic for the West than usual this term”


Putin

"in his heart of hearts knows he will win this,"

US Kellogg says.

US special envoy Keith Kellogg is back on stage at the Warsaw Security Forum.
Speaking about Ukraine, he says that Russia can

“win this war if we let it go the way we do.”

“I think probably in his heart of hearts he realises he can win this. This is a hardly winnable fight for him, long-term. It’s not.”

Asked about the recent incidents involving Russia in Europe, he appears to signal his support for the idea of shooting Russian drones or jets crossing into Nato airspace.

He says:

“The way you respond to something like this, from a military background, I would say sometimes you raise what is called the risk level to do it.

I know it’s the dangerous thing to do. I’ve got it. I understand that. But sometimes you have to ask yourselves, where do you go?

Look, this is serious business. For those of you sitting in uniform in this room, you know that.”

He specifically references Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski’s speech at the UN security council, in which he warned Russia that Poland would shoot any jets down in the future

Pressed about how to get to a trilateral meeting between Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump, Kellogg says 

“the way you reach [it], sort of like what Ukraine is doing right now, is you make this almost cost prohibitive.”

He says that Ukraine is making progress on that target by

“hitting the refineries, which cut 20% of their oil production down.”

“We are working on people not buying … on secondary sanctions (…) on buying their oil. Unfortunately, some in Europe are still buying it.”

He argued that Russia

“is a petrostate, and if you take away the petrodollars, they have got an enormous problem.”

“I think the calculus is on Putin, (…) and basically the pain level he is willing to accept,”

he says, pointing to Russia’s growing frontline problems with the Russian army

“taking tanks out of museums to bring into the frontlines.”

“I think the West is going to be lost in this war, things are more hectic than usual this term.”

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