The Enrichment of Confusion: U.S. Policy on Iran Enters Its Quantum Phase

🌀 One Day You Can, The Next Day You Can't
First, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff says Iran can enrich uranium — as long as inspectors check the boxes. The next day, he walks it back, declaring that “a deal will only be completed if it’s a Trump deal,” meaning zero enrichment. The State Department quickly retweets that version, because nothing says clarity like contradicting yourself on live TV and then quoting yourself on Twitter.

🔧 Diplomacy or Real Estate Negotiation?
Witkoff, a property developer turned nuclear negotiator, promised “tight verification,” as if the uranium centrifuge program were a beachfront condo inspection. “Verification will be the key,” he said — just before denying he ever said anything negotiable. It's the kind of leadership that turns a diplomatic process into a timeshare pitch with missile clauses.

🧨 Iran Reads the Room, Continues Enriching
Khamenei, unsurprisingly, is unimpressed. Iran continues enriching uranium well beyond the 3.67% limit. The Revolutionary Guard says missiles aren’t even on the table. But sure, let’s pretend “constructive talks” are happening — as if both sides aren’t drawing red lines in permanent ink while pretending they’re holding pencils.

📉 From ‘Maximum Pressure’ to Maximum Confusion
What started in 2018 as a hardline rupture of the Obama-era deal has now mutated into a paradox: Trump wants credit for diplomacy, but also wants to punish anyone who actually does diplomacy. Iran, for its part, offers “not overly pessimistic” noises while continuing to stockpile what can’t be negotiated. Everyone smiles. No one budges.

We’re just waiting for Khamenei to borrow Israel’s favorite line:

“Israel is not a threat to any country. We will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region. We certainly don’t have any intentions to use any such weapons. But if we are threatened with destruction, we will do what we have to do to survive.”

#iran #uranium #nuclear #trump #witkoff #diplomacy #foxnews #geopolitics #cynicalpolitics #proxylogic

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“Iran Will Never Agree to Dismantle Uranium Centrifuge”

Hezbollah official rules out talk of arms handover until Israel withdraws IDF says it killed communications official for terror group in strike.

“Iran will never agree to dismantle uranium centrifuge”,

said Ayatollah Khamenei.

#Iran #uranium #dismantle

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“Iran will not enrich uranium!
If they enrich uranium, America will act “differently.”

“I'd rather not do that (...) But you have to. There will be no uranium enrichment!”

#Iran #uranium #enrich

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Trump and Hegseth Question Scale of Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Sites 🇺🇸💥

Trump and US Defence Secretary Hegseth have admitted to some doubt over the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear sites by the US bombing at the weekend.

“The intelligence was very inconclusive,” Trump told journalists at a NATO summit in The Hague, introducing an element of uncertainty for the first time after several days of emphatic declarations that the destruction had been total.

“The intelligence says we don’t know. It could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests.”

The president then appeared to revert to his claim that “it was very severe. There was obliteration.”

Later in the day, he went on to claim that was the conclusion from “collected intelligence,” and that the Iranian programme had been set back “decades.”

Trump also likened the US use of massive bunker-buster bombs on the Fordow and Natanz uranium enrichment sites to the impact of the US nuclear weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the second world war, using the comparison specifically in reference to their impact in ending a conflict.

Over the course of the day, Trump’s claims became more far-reaching, even rejecting reports from the nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran’s 400kg stock of 60% enriched uranium could no longer be accounted for, and appeared to have been moved.

JD Vance had appeared to admit the US did not know where the highly enriched uranium was, saying it would be a subject of discussions with the Iranians.

#enriched #uranium #trump #hegseth

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📰 Fordo Flattened, but Iran’s Nuclear Crisis Is Just Beginning

As Trump hails a military triumph, the U.N. atomic watchdog quietly confirms the centrifuges are toast — and the real crisis may now be political, not technical.

💭 “There was no escaping significant physical damage. So we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

— Rafael Grossi, Director General, IAEA

📊 Fallout from the Fordo Strike
– Centrifuges Dead: U.S. bunker-busters knocked out Fordo’s uranium enrichment machines — fragile tech, obliterated by design
– Limited but Real: Grossi says Iran’s nuclear program suffered “enormous damage,” but warns against exaggeration: not all sites were hit
– No Inspectors: IAEA still locked out — Iran’s parliament just voted to kick them out entirely
– Backlash Begins: Tehran pledges “protective measures” for enriched uranium — the red line may shift underground, and out of sight

💼 Diplomatic Aftershocks
– Trump insists the program was “obliterated,” while leaks say only “months lost”
– Pentagon offers silence; CIA hedges
– Iran inches toward full NPT defiance — and the IAEA fears a new crisis is one bad decision away

🤔 Is this the end of Iran’s bomb — or just the beginning of a nuclear shadow war with no inspectors?

#IranNuclear #FordoStrike #Trump #IAEA #NPT #Uranium

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In Isfahan (Iran), the people surrounded an official in charge of the nuclear program and demanded proof that the enriched uranium had been really saved.

#Isfahan #uranium #proof

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🧨 Iran Pulls the Plug on Nuclear Inspectors: The Fallout Has Just Begun

💭 “The international community must act decisively now… before Tehran walks out like Pyongyang.”

— Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar

📉 Eyes Wide Shut
* Iran just suspended all cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.
* Inspectors can no longer assess the damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes — or track Iran’s 400+ kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
* Translation: the world is now officially flying blind on Iran’s nuclear program.

🛑 Fallout Diplomacy
* President Pezeshkian implemented a new law blocking access until the West guarantees safety for Iran’s nuclear scientists.
* Trump says he’s open to talks, but Tehran wants a formal pledge: no more bunker-busters before negotiations.
* Iran warns it might leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether — a move that only North Korea has dared before.

🔥 Khamenei’s Victory Lap
* Supreme Leader Khamenei claimed victory and mocked U.S. strike damage — while Tehran quietly tries to dig its way back into Fordow.
* The Natanz and Isfahan sites are also crippled, per IAEA reports.

🤔 Question for the Audience
When a regime says “nothing to see here” — while banning all cameras and doubling down on enrichment — is it time to believe them?

#Iran #NuclearCrisis #IAEA #Uranium #Trump #Israel

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🇮🇱 Israel is Preparing a Next Military Action

Israel is preparing for the possibility of further military action if Iran tries to revive its nuclear program, and Israeli officials think Trump could green light renewed Israeli attacks.

The path forward on the Iranian nuclear crisis will be a primary topic when Trump and Netanyahu sit down for dinner on Monday evening at the White House.

Israeli officials say Netanyahu wants to reach understandings with Trump about future U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran, and on possible scenarios that would justify renewed military strikes.

Netanyahu's top adviser, Ron Dermer, told officials in closed briefings that he came away from a recent visit to Washington with the impression that the Trump administration would back new Israeli strikes on Iran under certain circumstances, the sources say.

One scenario would be an Iranian attempt to remove the highly enriched uranium inside the damaged facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, according to the sources.

Another would be if the Iranians start rebuilding their nuclear program, particularly enrichment facilities.

Dermer met last week with Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Israeli officials say. Dermer declined to comment.

Trump said twice since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended that the U.S. could attack Iran again in the future if it restores uranium enrichment.

But he has also said he wants to reach a negotiated settlement to avoid any further conflict.

One key issue discussed in Dermer's meetings was Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400kg enriched to 60%.

Weapons-grade uranium requires about 90% enrichment.

#israel #iran #uranium #operation

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Does Iran Make a Move Toward Peace? ☢️🕊

Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister, has proposed the creation of a UN-endorsed civil nuclear cooperation forum across the Middle East and North Africa, aimed at ending the threat of nuclear weapons in the region. The initiative would focus on sharing enriched uranium for peaceful purposes such as energy, medicine, and agriculture.

The proposal, laid out in a Guardian article co-authored with former Iranian ambassador to the UK Mohsen Baharvand, comes amid heightened tensions following a 12-day US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites in June. Since then, Iran has refused to negotiate with the US 🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — but talks with the UK, France, and Germany continue.

🗓 With the 2015 nuclear deal set to expire in October, European nations have warned that UN sanctions may be reimposed unless Iran allows IAEA inspectors back in.

Zarif’s proposal outlines the creation of “Menara” (Middle East Network for Atomic Research and Advancement) — a collaborative platform open to all regional countries that:

❌ Reject nuclear weapons development/deployment
✅ Commit to mutual verification
⚛️ Benefit from shared peaceful nuclear technology
Critics argue that Zarif is trying to divert attention from Iran’s alleged covert weapons ambitions or spotlight Israel’s undeclared nuclear program. Others suggest it’s a diplomatic maneuver ahead of renewed talks with the E3.

Still, the proposal provides a long-term framework for transparency and peaceful nuclear advancement in one of the world's most volatile regions 🌍🤝

Whether the plan gains traction or stalls under geopolitical pressure remains to be seen.

#zarif #iran #negotiations #uranium #plan #nuclear #peace #menara

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The United States is not yet in a position to completely stop purchasing enriched uranium from Russia. 🌍💥

“And it is not in our best interest to do so. 😳 If Europe continues to purchase gas from Russia despite the sanctions, we will continue to purchase uranium. 🔥 This is not a matter of discussion,” said Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy. 🗣✨

#wright #secretary #energy #russia #uranium

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Iran Vehemently Disagreed with Trump. What's His Next goof-up ?


Iran is refusing to export its 300kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium , but is willing to dilute the purity of the stockpile held in Iran under the supervision of the UN nuclear inspectorate the IAEA, Iranian sources have said.

The proposal will be at the heart of the offer Iran is due to make to the US in the next few days, as US president Donald Trump weighs whether to use his vast naval build up in the Middle East to attack Iran.

Iran currently has a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons grade, but is willing to down-blend the purity to 20% or below.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is also claiming that there has been no US demand in the talks for Iran to even abandon the right to enrich inside Iran.

The focus is instead on the purity of the enrichment and the number of centrifuges to be permitted.

There had been discussion of the stockpile being sent to Russia, and for Iran’s domestic enrichment programme to be linked in with an overseas consortium, but Iranian sources are insisting the concept of a consortium has not been raised.

Iranian media close to the government quoted an Iranian diplomat saying: “We emphasised this position during the negotiations that nuclear materials will not leave the country”.

The Iranian account of its relatively uncompromising position means a great deal of weight will have to be placed on the degree of access the IAEA would be given to inspect Iran’s nuclear sites.

The Iranian offer is likely to determine whether Trump feels compelled to launch military action against Iran.

In an interview in the US aired on Friday, Araghchi said, “Washington has not asked Tehran to permanently suspend uranium enrichment,” adding that Tehran has not offered Washington a temporary suspension of its uranium enrichment.

He rejected reports that Iran has apparently proposed suspending uranium enrichment for two to three years, saying: “It is not true that the United States has called for a complete cessation of enrichment.”

His remarks were contradicted by the US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz who, prompted by his interviewer, said the US was seeking “zero enrichment” by Iran.

But Reza Nasri, an Iranian lawyer with contacts inside the foreign ministry, warned:

“If Iran is attacked while nuclear disagreements can still be settled diplomatically in a fair and equitable manner, other regional states will inevitably draw one conclusion: nuclear weapons are the only real deterrent against the US and Israel”.

The news came as protests erupted at some universities prompting fresh clashes in the street at Mashhad University of Medical Services and at least two Tehran universities.

The universities were reopening after being closed due to fear of protests.

At Sharif University, the students chanted “Javed Shah”, “Until the mullah is shrouded, this homeland will not become a homeland,” and “Death to the dictator.”

The Sharif University president urged the students to stop since the authorities would only force classes back online.

Protests are also expected at a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Tuesday when an Iranian official, Afsaneh Nadipour, takes her seat for the first time as a full member of the advisory council.

Nadipour, a former Iranian ambassador to Denmark, is due to provide input on women’s rights.

The UN Human Rights Council Advisory Committee is composed of 18 independent experts from five UN regional groups and serves as the intellectual arm of the Human Rights Council.

Nominations are made by governments and are selected by the council.

#iran #uranium #trump #mike #waltz #nadipour

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Trump Declares the Nuclear Problem Solved. Reality Disagrees.

Trump is now saying Iran’s enriched uranium is not his problem because it is “so far underground,” even as inspectors still say Tehran has enough near-bomb-grade material for roughly a dozen weapons.

That is not confidence. That is either wishful thinking or a prelude to a future strike.

The strange part is the speed of the spin. In less than 24 hours, the White House went from treating Iran’s nuclear fuel as an existential threat to talking as if satellites can substitute for control.

The uranium did not vanish. The political need to declare victory just got louder.

That matters because this war has always been sold as a mission to stop breakout capacity, not just smash launchers and factories. If the stockpile is still underground, then the core problem is still underground too.

Trump wants the public to believe the danger is over, while keeping the option to raid storage sites later if needed.

That is not a solution. It is a pause button with a bomb attached.

#Trump #Iran #Nuclear #Uranium #MiddleEast #war #geopolitics

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📰 Pakistan the Therapist, Iran the Patient, America the Stalker

Pakistan shows up in Tehran with a briefcase and a straight face, selling “mediation” between Washington and Tehran while nobody in the room can even agree what they’re negotiating.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi meets Ahmad Vahidi, one of the hard-line pillars of Iran’s security system, and friendly regime outlet Nur News whispers that the “American positions on the agreement” have already been passed to Iran and are now “under review.”

Then comes the fine print. A Pakistani source politely tells Al Jazeera that the army chief’s visit to Tehran depends on how Naqvi’s trip goes, and that Iran asked for more time to study U.S. conditions, with enriched uranium still the central point of contention.

Nobody knows if the general is coming, nobody knows if Iran answered, and nobody can explain what, exactly, this “deal” is supposed to solve.

Iranian outlets like ISNA try to dress it up as serious statecraft: talks about “a general framework, some details, and confidence-building steps as guarantees,” all wrapped in one blunt sentence—further narrowing the gaps “requires Washington to end the war.”

The side getting bombed politely suggests the side doing the bombing stop, before talking about enrichment, missiles, or proxies. Revolutionary concept.

And then the killer question, asked by outsiders because insiders are too polite: if the only remaining obstacle is the fate of enriched uranium, does that mean everything else is magically solved? Enrichment limits? Dismantling nuclear facilities? Ballistic missiles? Iranian proxies across the region? No one will say it on record, because the answer is obvious and disastrous: nothing is solved. The uranium file just makes a nice, technical-sounding excuse for a political trench war.

So Pakistan plays go-between, Iran plays aggrieved sovereign, and the U.S. plays both arsonist and fire inspector—while everyone loudly pretends they’re inches away from “a final draft.” If this is diplomacy, it looks less like a peace process and more like three governments rehearsing how to explain, in advance, why the next war was “unavoidable.”

#Iran #US #Pakistan #nuclear #diplomacy #uranium #war #fakePeace #geopolitics

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Nuclear Theater: Inspectors, Illusions, and Enriched Ego

Rafael Grossi flies to Fukushima and does what technocrats do: waves a memorandum and says the rules are clear.

According to him, the U.S.–Iran understanding explicitly puts all nuclear activity and material under IAEA supervision, “in all letters,” which means inspectors will enter enrichment sites sooner or later.

He talks like timing is a scheduling issue — tomorrow, a week, ten days — not a power struggle, and insists inspections are “going to happen” because the paper says so.

Tehran answers with a cold shrug. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi says access to bombed sites and to the high‑grade uranium will “only” be reviewed within a final deal and only after sanctions are actually lifted, not just promised on TV.

He denies any cozy side‑meeting with Grossi in Switzerland, and warns against people trying to “stir up and take over” reality through media hype — his polite way of saying Vienna and Washington are gaslighting the world with press conferences instead of binding commitments.

Trump, meanwhile, does his own version of nuclear improv on Fox. He tells viewers there’s “no rush” to let inspectors in, and that American teams will walk in alongside IAEA staff “to find the enriched uranium,” like it’s an Easter egg hunt with satellite imagery and airstrikes as the clues. Just weeks earlier he was boasting that any remaining enriched uranium would be handed over to the U.S. or “destroyed in place” under American supervision — which sounds tough until you remember Grossi keeps saying the IAEA still can’t verify where the bulk of that material actually is.

So you get three realities for the price of one. The IAEA insists the framework deal obliges Iran to open the doors and that it’s just a matter of logistics. Iran insists nothing happens until the last sanction is gone and every access request is folded into a final, face‑saving agreement.

Trump insists the uranium is already under control, or soon will be, as long as he’s in the room when the cameras roll. Nobody can actually verify the status of the stockpile since the June strikes, but everyone sells certainty to their own public: Grossi sells “oversight,” Tehran sells “sovereignty,” Trump sells “victory.”

From a distance, it looks less like arms control and more like narrative control. The watchdog needs to prove it matters, so it declares inspections inevitable. The regime needs to prove it didn’t cave, so it delays any access to the sites that really count. The U.S. president needs to prove he “solved” Iran, so he downplays the risk of near‑bomb‑grade uranium buried in tunnels while promising American inspectors will personally babysit it.

And between all these performances sits the actual material that could make up to ten nuclear weapons, unvisited, unverifiable, and far more stable than the politicians arguing over it.

#Iran #nuclear #IAEA #Grossi #Trump #uranium #sanctions #war #armscontrol

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🇸🇦☢️ Nuclear Without Normalization: Washington’s 30‑Year Saudi Bet

The US president, Donald Trump, has approved a 30‑year civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that puts American firms at the center of the kingdom’s reactor and fuel build‑out — and keeps open a conditional door to uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.

The agreement is described as a multibillion‑dollar package meant to steer Riyadh away from Russian or Chinese vendors and lock in US influence over its nuclear infrastructure.

One key clause: US companies could build an enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint study later finds domestic fuel production economically warranted, with the administration arguing that American involvement is itself a safeguard against military misuse.

In plain terms, that is a structured pathway to a Saudi enrichment capability — a potential pathway to weapons if politics shift.

What the deal omits matters just as much. It does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the IAEA Additional Protocol, which enables broader and more intrusive inspections beyond standard safeguards. It does not include the “gold standard” imposed in some past US nuclear agreements, which flatly bans enrichment and reprocessing — the model used with the UAE.

Congress will have about 90 days to review the agreement, but blocking it would demand a joint resolution and a two‑thirds majority capable of overriding an expected presidential veto, a threshold that makes rejection highly unlikely.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright is slated to sign with Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as early as tomorrow.

The final piece changes the whole picture. The president has separated this nuclear package from the condition that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel — a linkage that was central to earlier “grand bargain” plans and has eroded since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the war that followed.

Under Biden, the idea was a three‑part deal: security guarantees, civil nuclear cooperation and normalization bundled together.

After October 7, that political track stalled; now Washington is moving ahead on the nuclear track alone, with a conditional enrichment option, without the Additional Protocol and without the gold standard, on a three‑decade timeline.

Defenders of the deal argue there is a nonproliferation logic: if Saudi Arabia is going to build nuclear plants, better they be supplied and overseen by American companies than by Russia or China, with weaker transparency and no US leverage.

But that case collides with two hard facts. First, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS back in 2018 that if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would follow “as soon as possible” — an explicit political commitment to match any Iranian bomb.

Second, the US is currently bombing Iran over Hormuz while quietly offering Riyadh a conditional route to enrichment, in a region where the main proliferation fear already runs through Tehran.

In that context, the deal doesn’t just bend US nuclear norms; it rewrites the incentive structure.

A US‑backed Saudi program without the toughest safeguards says that access to advanced nuclear technology can be won without making peace with Israel and without accepting the strict inspection regime Washington used to treat as non‑negotiable.

Over thirty years, what this agreement most reliably guarantees is not stability, but a steady risk of future non‑proliferation crises centered on a kingdom that has already said it will chase Iran’s shadow.

#SaudiArabia #USA #nuclear #uranium #Trump #Israel #IAEA #Iran #MiddleEast #worldorder

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US Head of the Middle East Programme:
“Trump went crazy by handing over uranium enrichment technology to Saudi Arabia”


The US has signed a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow the kingdom to enrich uranium in the future.

In a statement on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy said its secretary, Chris Wright, and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, signed a “peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement”, along with a “bilateral safeguards agreement”.

The full details of the deal have yet to be released, but the timing of the announcement is controversial, as the US’s war with Iran is being fought in part to prevent Tehran enriching uranium domestically and make it near-impossible for Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

A civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia has been in the works for years during Trump’s first administration. No deal has come together before now, in part because of warnings from nonproliferation groups who say that it could offer Saudi Arabia a path to develop a nuclear weapon.

The deal will be submitted to Congress for review, where it could face opposition among lawmakers who fear a lack of monitoring safeguards to restrict Saudi Arabia’s uranium enrichment.

Saudi Arabia has in the past said it would need a nuclear weapon if Iran acquired one, an intention Iran has repeatedly denied. But in lengthy talks stretching over more than one administration, the US also feared that Riyadh would look elsewhere for nuclear technology if the US did not provide what it wanted.

Saudi Arabia has long said if it does not partner with the US, it could partner with China or Russia which have different proliferation standards.

In a report to Congress earlier this year, the US administration urged support for the US-Saudi nuclear deal, in part to “prevent strategic competition from seizing an opportunity to undermine United States national security interests for decades to come”.

The report also argued that the US must seize the opportunity to expand nuclear cooperation to “re-establish our leadership in the global civilian nuclear energy market and reap the benefits of expanded influence in foreign countries hosting our reactors”.

According to the US energy department, the Saudi partnership agreed on Wednesday is expected to expand American nuclear technology exports, create “high-paying” US jobs, and “strengthen America’s energy and national security posture”.

“These agreements reflect our two nations’ shared commitment to strengthening US-Saudi commercial relations, delivering prosperity at home and security to our allies abroad,” Wright said in a statement.

However it is likely the agreement will not include the enhanced monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that is found in the so-called additional protocol to which Iran had been subjected under the 2015 nuclear deal.

In a statement to CBS, Dan Sumner, chief executive of Westinghouse Electric Company – an American nuclear reactor company expected to support Saudi Arabia’s nuclear development – said:

“The US government’s announcement to launch a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia is a landmark step that strengthens energy security, expands opportunities for US industry and workers, and drives significant long-term economic growth and investment benefits for both countries.”

Before the deal was announced, Rosemary Kelanic, the head of the Middle East programme at Defense Priorities, warned in a social media post: “Trump went crazy by handing over uranium enrichment technology to Saudi Arabia” (...) a terrible idea on many counts. But it’s especially idiotic to do it in the middle of a war over Iran’s nuclear programme.”

She described the decision as reckless and not in the US national interest. “Saudi enrichment would put immense pressure on Iran to get the bomb. Is Trump TRYING to provoke Iran into weaponising?”

#middle #east #trump #saudi #arabia #uranium

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