Putin and the War in the Middle East: Who Wins? 🌍⚔️
An Opinion

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The recent war in the Middle East represents an opportunity. At first glance, it seemed like the United States and Israel’s military strikes against the Iranian nuclear program were tantamount to a strategic setback for the Kremlin as well, given Russia’s longstanding support for the Islamic Republic. 🛑💣

Nevertheless, Russia is deftly seizing the moment, not to save Iran, but to reassert itself on the world stage, offset Western sanctions, and shift momentum in the war in Ukraine. 🇷🇺🌐

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has leaned heavily on Tehran to sustain its military campaign. 💥⚔️

Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones filled a critical gap in Russia’s arsenal, enabling relentless strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. 🎯🛸

In 2023, the partnership deepened when the two countries signed a deal to co-produce Iranian drones in Russia’s Tatarstan region, embedding Iranian technology into Russia’s domestic defense production. 🤝💻

The effect has been transformative. Since the partnership began, Moscow’s strike capabilities have increased dramatically, leading to a massive increase in the scope and volume of drone attacks on Ukraine. 💣🛰

Yet, this Russo-Iranian cooperation has stopped short of a formal defense commitment. Even the recently ratified Iranian-Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which expands military, economic, and political collaboration between Moscow and Tehran, conspicuously lacks a mutual defense clause. 📜🤐

This shortcoming left Iran stranded in the face of recent escalation from the West. 🚨💔

Indeed, when Israel and the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities in late June, Tehran’s calls for support went largely unanswered. What it received instead was a carefully worded “condemnation” from Moscow, and little else. 😒

For all the military assistance Iran has given Russia in its war with Ukraine, Putin appears uninterested in returning the favor. 🙅‍♂️🚫

Perhaps that’s because, with Russia’s long-range drone supply chain secured, Iran’s role as a critical supplier for Moscow’s war is waning. ⏳🔋

Instead, Russia can capitalize on a weakened and isolated Iran, dependent on Russian support, to serve a far more valuable purpose: diplomatic relevance. 🗣💬

#putin #middle #east #win #netanyahu

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Putin’s Maneuvering in the Middle East: Seizing Opportunities Amid Crisis 🌍⚖️

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Indeed, as tensions surged, Putin wasted no time flexing his position as the only world leader with open lines to all sides. 🌍🕊

In the following days, Putin held direct talks with Netanyahu, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, and Trump. 🗣🤝

Later, at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia, alongside its Chinese and Pakistani counterparts, called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East. 🌐✋

These actions are not driven by a desire to de-escalate the crisis. Rather, they reflect Moscow’s desire to exploit it. Russia is leveraging the crisis to reassert itself as a central diplomatic actor in the region, much as it did during the original 2015 JCPOA negotiations. 🛑📈

And while Washington seems unlikely to embrace Moscow as a partner in future negotiations, Putin can still use his government’s ties to Iran to craft the illusion of regional diplomatic relevance and reinforce that image among non-Western powers. 🌏💬

Meanwhile, the Iran-Israel war has provided an unexpected boost to the Russian economy. 💵📊

Due to the G7-imposed $60 price cap, oil revenues in Russia have fallen by a third since last year. However, market concerns over conflict in the Middle East have triggered a jump in oil prices. 🛢📈

Urals crude is now trading above the threshold, potentially unlocking billions in additional revenue for Russia’s war chest. At the same time, disruptions to Iranian oil exports could drive reliant states like China to turn increasingly to Russian supplies as a safe alternative. 🇷🇺⛽️

The biggest gain for Russia, however, lies not in diplomacy or oil but in the ongoing uncertainty of Western resolve in Ukraine. 🇺🇦❓

Although Trump has since pledged to increase defense weapon shipments to Kyiv following reports of a Pentagon “weapons pause,” Washington’s strategic focus is increasingly stretched, particularly now as it navigates heightened instability in the Middle East. 🔄💥

For Russia, US debates over strategic posture may provide an opening to regroup and potentially accelerate its campaign in Ukraine anew. 🏙🚶‍♂️

While Moscow’s territorial gains have slowed over the course of the war, rising oil revenues and Washington’s faltering commitments could help reverse that trend. 🔄🔧

#putin #middle #east #win #netanyahu

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Former NATO Chef Rasmussen: “Russia will win this war whatever the cost” 🇷🇺🏆🇷🇺


Ukraine is facing a “forever war” and a slow erosion of territory unless Europe dramatically increases pressure on Russia, including by deploying troops and establishing a missile and drone shield on Nato territory to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks on its infrastructure, a former Nato secretary general has said.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who held the Nato post from 2009 to 2014 and was the prime minister of Denmark from 2001 to 2009, said in an interview with the Guardian that if countries such as Poland agreed to host such air defences, Russia would understand that an attack on then would be an attack on the whole of the NATO alliance.

He said: “We have to help the Ukrainian people protect themselves against Russian missiles and drones by building an air shield helping the Ukrainians shoot down Russian missiles and drones. NATO countries neighbouring Ukraine can be the location for a Nato-based air defence and missile system.”

Rasmussen also called for the deployment of a European protection force for Ukraine in advance of a ceasefire agreement.

He said the “coalition of the willing” hoping to assemble such a force for when fighting ends had been reduced to a coalition of the waiting.

If we do not carry out major changes in strategy we will look into a forever war,” he said.

“Russia will win this war whatever the cost (...) Changes in speed and mindset are needed,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen, who has forged close links with the Ukrainian leadership, is touring European capitals, including London to meet the UK national security adviser, Jonathan Powell.

The two men discussed whether the US could provide security guarantees to Ukraine, using language similar to that recently used by the US when it provided security guarantees to Qatar after Israel attacked its capital, Doha.

Iron-clad security guarantees would make it easier for Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to sell a peace deal to his own people that involved the loss of Ukrainian territory, Rasmussen said.

He said it was necessary to make dramatic adjustments to force a change in Vladimir Putin’s mindset. Apart from the development of a Ukrainian missile and drone shield based in Europe, and the deployment of some European troops into Ukraine, he urged Ukraine to be given long-range missiles to hit more targets inside Russia.

He said it was still possible to reopen discussions on the supply of US Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which Donald Trump has not backed, if Germany was willing to be “the first mover” and provide Ukraine with its own Taurus cruise missiles.

Rasmussen said Europe was still not waking up to the threat posed by Russia and urged the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine.

“We need to defreeze the frozen €150bn Russian assets in Euroclear and use the assets as the basis for a loan to purchase weapons and hopefully start reconstruction,” he said.

He predicted European leaders would be able to overcome objections to this plan voiced at the last EU council of ministers, principally by Belgium, where Euroclear is based.

The plan rests on the assumption that neither Ukraine nor the EU would need to repay the loan but could instead draw on a proposed Russian payment of war reparations to Ukraine.

#Ukraine #Rasmussen #NATO #win #war #russia

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Could Ukraine Wrap Up the War? ⚔️🇺🇦

In less than four months, the war in Ukraine will reach its fourth anniversary. Both sides have taken nearly 2 million casualties in a fight that does not seem to have an end in sight. 💥

For another November, the Russian forces are pushing hard to make gains in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine at a very high cost. The Ukrainian military is putting up a fierce resistance while slowly retreating. 🪖

Under these conditions, can Ukraine win the war? Yes, but it would need the necessary means and time to change the balance of power on the battlefield and force the Kremlin to the negotiation table. 🕊

Ukraine Strikes Back ⚡️
To win the war or achieve a favorable settlement, Ukraine needs to go on the counterattack and liberate most, if not all, of its territory currently occupied by the Russian military.

To begin with, the Ukrainian military has proven that it can plan and successfully execute large-scale counteroffensive operations. In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian forces caught the Russians by surprise, liberating hundreds of square miles of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine in just a few days. 🇺🇦🔥

However, not all Ukrainian counteroffensives have been successful. A year later, in the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian military launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. The goal was to reach and enter Crimea.

Due to a combination of reasons, such as a delay in supplying Kyiv with the necessary weapon systems, including sufficient numbers of main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as the Ukrainians facing the most comprehensive defensive works since World War II, the counteroffensive failed. 🪖

Then, in the summer of 2024, the Ukrainians launched a foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Once more, they were able to catch the Russian military by surprise and create a foothold inside Russia.

The foray in Kursk forced the Russian military to dedicate tens of thousands of troops and even involve North Korean forces. 🚁

However, Ukraine is suffering from manpower shortages.

Although Kyiv has suffered fewer casualties than Moscow (approximately 450,000 versus nearly 1.2 million), the war has taken its toll on Ukraine’s manpower reserves. ⚰️

For an effective counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military would need to amass and train sufficient forces while at the same time repelling Russia’s attacks.

That is easier said than done. And it could prove to be the sticking point that prevents Kyiv from liberating its territories. ⏳

A Future Ukrainian Counteroffensive 🔥
Thus, the Ukrainians have shown that they can conduct maneuver warfare and achieve big victories. But they have also shown their limitations when faced with an entrenched enemy who enjoys fire superiority.

As a result, a successful future Ukrainian counteroffensive would need both the necessary means (men, main battle tanks, artillery ammunition, infantry fighting vehicles, and other assets) and the element of surprise. 💣

Moreover, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely need something extra that would change the balance on the battlefield. That something could be sufficient air assets to establish temporary air superiority over the battlefield or a large supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to destroy Russian units, command and control functions, and logistics lines. 🚀

#tomahawk #ukraine #win #war #russia #kremlin

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#war #iran #win

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