🏆🏆🏆
❗️ COVER LETTER #FED

▫️The Fed will continue to reduce the balance sheet (#QT).
▫️The Fed will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in JUNE.
▫️Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace.
▫️Job growth remains strong and the unemployment rate remains low.
▫️Inflation has decreased over the past year, but remains high.
▫️There has been no progress in achieving the 2% inflation target in recent months.
▫️The economic outlook is uncertain.
▫️The Fed is ready to adjust the PREP depending on the incoming macro data.

@Сryptoz ₿

❗️ COVER LETTER #FEDERAL SERIES

▫️Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace.
▫️Job growth has slowed.
▫️Unemployment has increased but remains low.
▫️Inflation is steadily moving toward the 2% target.
▫️The risks to the Fed's dual mandate are balanced (inflation/labor market).
▫️The economic outlook is uncertain.
▫️The Fed's further monetary policy depends on macro data.
▫️The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet (#QT).
▫️This year, the Fed expects two more rate cuts of 25 bp each.
▫️Fed Rate Forecast = 3.4% by end-2025.
▫️Inflation Forecast = 2.3% by end-2024 (previously = 2.6%).
▫️GDP Forecast = 2% by end-2024 (previously = 2.1%).
▫️Unemployment Forecast = 4.4% by end-2024 (previously = 4%).

C76KOYJU
@Сryptoz ₿

#opinion
🤔 Arthur Hayes: «Probably, the reduction in the money supply (#QT) will end on April 1, 2025.»

- New incentives are needed for the growth of the crypto market, such as the launch of a «printing press» (QE).

- Bitcoin has already bottomed at $77,000, but the stock market may still subside before the Fed changes the course.

@Сryptoz ₿

#Calendar
⚡️ Calendar of key events for this week:

Monday, March 31:
- nothing important

Tuesday, April 1:
🇪🇺 EU - counter-trade duties on goods from the United States come into force
🇺🇸 USA - The Fed begins to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction (#QT)
🇪🇺 EU - Consumer inflation CPI (March) - 12:00
🇺🇸 USA - S&P Manufacturing PMI (March) - 16:45
🇺🇸 USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) - 17:00
❗️USA - Number of open vacancies in the JOLTS labor market (Feb) - 17:00

Wednesday, April 2:
🇺🇸 USA - «mutual duties» come into force for all countries
🇺🇸 USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment (March) - 15:15

Thursday, April 3:
🇺🇸 USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 15:30
🇺🇸 USA - S&P Services/Composite PMI (March) - 16:45
🇺🇸 USA - ISM Services PMI (March) - 17:00
🇺🇸 USA - Fed Balance Sheet - 23:30

Friday, April 4:
🇨🇳🇭🇰 China/Hong Kong - no bidding (Qingming Festival)
❗️USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (March) - 15:30
❗️USA - Unemployment rate (March) - 15:30
❗️USA - Speech by J. Powell (heads of the Fed) - 18:25

@Сryptoz ₿

#opinion
🤔 Arthur Hayes: «Bitcoin will exceed $250,000 by the end of the year.»

The analyst published a new essay claiming that the U.S. Federal Reserve no longer controls monetary policy.

In his opinion, the Fed, under pressure from the Ministry of Finance, is moving from the fight against inflation to public debt financing.

The main theses from the essay:

▪️#QT (balance reduction) slows down:
From $25b/month to $5b/month is +$240b of annual dollar liquidity.

▪️#QE (printing press) will probably resume in the coming months, which will create a potential liquidity of +$420b/year.

▪️By analogy with 2008–2009: Gold grew faster than stocks after the launch of QE. Now the same thing can happen with BTC.

@Сryptoz ₿

📉 CryptoQuant: Bitcoin may drop to $72,000 if it does not hold the $100,000 level.

The reason is weak demand after the largest liquidation on October 10 at $20b.

Since then:
⊹ Spot purchases of BTC are decreasing.
⊹ Outflows continue from crypto-ETF.
⊹ There is a negative premium on Coinbase (BTC is traded cheaper on Coinbase than on other exchanges).
⊹ Bull Score index from CryptoQuant - 20 out of 100, bright bear zone.

Context:
⊹ Bitcoin fell below $100k for the first time since June. ⊹ Other crypto assets are also in the red: «GMCI 30» (TOP-30 largest cryptocurrencies) -9% per day.
⊹ Investors are going to risk-off - they fear new tariffs, a pause of the Fed with the rate and a weak stock market.

At the same time, CryptoQuant and Hashdex believe that the $100,000 level is more psychological than fundamental.

Strong factors remain:
⊹ Record inflows to Bitcoin ETF since the beginning of the year.
⊹ Corporations continue to increase Bitcoin on balance sheets.
⊹ Completion of the Fed’s #QT can return liquidity to the markets.

@Сryptoz ₿

🫧 The Fed is inflating the bubble again, and capital flows into Bitcoin and Gold (Ray Dalio)

✦ The Fed is preparing to complete #QT and return to the printing press (#QE). Officially - a «technical measure», but Dalio considers it the beginning of a new cycle of debt easing and monetization.

✦ If the Fed’s balance sheet begins to grow against the background of a rate reduction, a record budget deficit and the growth of the stock market, it is not a salvation of the economy, but a pouring of gasoline into the overheated market.

✦ At the same time, the economy is not in recession:
• Indices at the maximums.
• Unemployment ~4%.
• Inflation is above the target.
• AI-actions are inflated to the point of madness.
That is, it’s not «QE for the sake of salvation», but QE in the midst of the bubble.

✦ According to the classics of the Great Debt Cycle, it looks like:
• A sharp increase in the supply of public debt.
• The Central Bank buys it out by printing money.
• The Treasury reduces the terms of bonds.
• And inflation is being ignored for the sake of elections and economic growth.

✦ Dalio believes that this is no longer just a technical step - it is the final stage of the cycle: stimulation, debt monetization and overheated markets.

✦ As in previous cycles, capital goes to limited assets: Gold, Bitcoin, etc.

Ray Dalio is a billionaire and founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates.

@Сryptoz ₿