FC Bayern English

A disappointed @Thiago6 says @FCBayernEN were punished for their errors in an exciting 2-2 draw ...
A disappointed @Thiago6 says @FCBayernEN were punished for their errors in an exciting 2-2 draw against battling #Mainz. http://pic.twitter.com/zaK93MSIWw

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FC Bayern English

A disappointed @Thiago6 says @FCBayernEN were punished for their errors in an exciting 2-2 draw against battling #Mainz. http://pic.twitter.com/zaK93MSIWw

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FC Bayern English

FC Bayern English

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FC Bayern English

<b>Bundesliga MD 20 Preview: Mainz against Bayern</b>
Before the top match against Leipzig in a week’s time, Bayern first have to visit Mainz in the Bundesliga at the weekend and then play a home game against Hoffenheim in the DFB-Pokal. Our preview for the match against Mainz.Mainz is firmly embroiled in a relegation fight this season. An analysis of what they have to do better to ensure staying up is actually not all that difficult. Already in our preview of the reserve fixture we identified the hurriedness of their game as one of their biggest problems.Although then coach Sandro Schwarz had worked hard to improve this, he ultimately did not succeed and was dismissed in November. His successor became Achim Beierlorzer, who just a week earlier had still been coach of Cologne where he was released just one day before Schwarz was released at Mainz.11 games, 8 defeats, 3 victories – Beierlorzer’s predecessor had left him with a bleak legacy. Beierlorzer followed this up with three wins in eight games, but also five defeats – including three in a row in the last three games. The question of what exactly has improved under him is therefore difficult to answer.<a href="#mainz-success-through-calmness"></a>Mainz: Success through calmnessOne thing you could mention is match luck. Under Sandro Schwarz this was often missing. Need an example? On the Bundesliga’s second matchday, the team from Mainz lost 3-1 to Gladbach – the expected Goals (xG) by fbref.com gave the game a score of 1.2-1.5. On matchday 5, they lost away to Schalke with 2-1 – xG: 1.2-1.1. Then followed defeats against Wolfsburg (xG: 0.7-0.5) and Union (xG: 2.0-0.9). On the other hand, there were also a few somewhat lucky victories such as the ones against Hertha Berlin (xG: 1.8-2.2) and Cologne (xG: 1.3-1.9). All told, however, calling Mainz an unlucky team seems like a fair assessment to make.Under Beierlorzer it seemed at first as if their fate had taken a turn for the better. Already in the first game under him, Mainz managed a 5-1 victory against Hoffenheim – xG: 2.1-2.2. Only the defeats against Leverkusen and Freiburg deviated more significantly from the gap in xG.All their season’s matches taken together, Mainz has conceded significantly more goals than their xG against tally suggests. 33.4 xG against are way below their 44 actual goals conceded. An inquest into the causes, however, leads less to a verdict of bad luck, but more to the hectic pace of play already mentioned.<a href="#untapped-potential"></a>Untapped potentialBeierlorzer too has not yet found an adequate solution to this problem. Shortly before Christmas, he spoke openly about his team’s major issues: “We need consistency, more aggressiveness, better tackling. And also more straightforwardness and determination in handling the ball.” Too timid, too hesitant, too little determination – that sums it up in a nutshell. The team seems to be uncertain in their offensive game, although with 27 they have scored the second most goals in the lower half of the table behind Augsburg with 31.14.6 attempts per game is also the fifth best value in the league. But despite a much smaller sample size, we had already noticed a trend developing at Mainz before the reverse fixture last Summer, which the much more substantial data pool available now has confirmed: 46% of all shots at goal come from outside the penalty area. Only Dusseldorf has a higher proportion with 49%. The league average is 37.1%.Comparing the xG value of 26 with the total number of shots (278), Mainz’s probability of scoring a goal with a shot is around 9%. To put that into perspective: Düsseldorf (7.6%), Paderborn (10%), Bremen (9.6%), Cologne (9.9%), Hertha (10.7%) and Union (9.9%) are on a similar level. Only Augsburg (13.2 %) is a clear positive outlier in this respect.<a href="#time-for-the-next-step"></a>Time for the next stepSo these statistics do not bear out the theory that Mainz is catastrophic in attack. On the contrary: Managing to convert…

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