<b>Bundesliga MD 20 Preview: Mainz against Bayern</b>
Before the top match against Leipzig in a week’s time, Bayern first have to visit Mainz in the Bundesliga at the weekend and then play a home game against Hoffenheim in the DFB-Pokal. Our preview for the match against Mainz.Mainz is firmly embroiled in a relegation fight this season. An analysis of what they have to do better to ensure staying up is actually not all that difficult. Already in our preview of the reserve fixture we identified the hurriedness of their game as one of their biggest problems.Although then coach Sandro Schwarz had worked hard to improve this, he ultimately did not succeed and was dismissed in November. His successor became Achim Beierlorzer, who just a week earlier had still been coach of Cologne where he was released just one day before Schwarz was released at Mainz.11 games, 8 defeats, 3 victories – Beierlorzer’s predecessor had left him with a bleak legacy. Beierlorzer followed this up with three wins in eight games, but also five defeats – including three in a row in the last three games. The question of what exactly has improved under him is therefore difficult to answer.<a href="#mainz-success-through-calmness"></a>Mainz: Success through calmnessOne thing you could mention is match luck. Under Sandro Schwarz this was often missing. Need an example? On the Bundesliga’s second matchday, the team from Mainz lost 3-1 to Gladbach – the expected Goals (xG) by fbref.com gave the game a score of 1.2-1.5. On matchday 5, they lost away to Schalke with 2-1 – xG: 1.2-1.1. Then followed defeats against Wolfsburg (xG: 0.7-0.5) and Union (xG: 2.0-0.9). On the other hand, there were also a few somewhat lucky victories such as the ones against Hertha Berlin (xG: 1.8-2.2) and Cologne (xG: 1.3-1.9). All told, however, calling Mainz an unlucky team seems like a fair assessment to make.Under Beierlorzer it seemed at first as if their fate had taken a turn for the better. Already in the first game under him, Mainz managed a 5-1 victory against Hoffenheim – xG: 2.1-2.2. Only the defeats against Leverkusen and Freiburg deviated more significantly from the gap in xG.All their season’s matches taken together, Mainz has conceded significantly more goals than their xG against tally suggests. 33.4 xG against are way below their 44 actual goals conceded. An inquest into the causes, however, leads less to a verdict of bad luck, but more to the hectic pace of play already mentioned.<a href="#untapped-potential"></a>Untapped potentialBeierlorzer too has not yet found an adequate solution to this problem. Shortly before Christmas, he spoke openly about his team’s major issues: “We need consistency, more aggressiveness, better tackling. And also more straightforwardness and determination in handling the ball.” Too timid, too hesitant, too little determination – that sums it up in a nutshell. The team seems to be uncertain in their offensive game, although with 27 they have scored the second most goals in the lower half of the table behind Augsburg with 31.14.6 attempts per game is also the fifth best value in the league. But despite a much smaller sample size, we had already noticed a trend developing at Mainz before the reverse fixture last Summer, which the much more substantial data pool available now has confirmed: 46% of all shots at goal come from outside the penalty area. Only Dusseldorf has a higher proportion with 49%. The league average is 37.1%.Comparing the xG value of 26 with the total number of shots (278), Mainz’s probability of scoring a goal with a shot is around 9%. To put that into perspective: Düsseldorf (7.6%), Paderborn (10%), Bremen (9.6%), Cologne (9.9%), Hertha (10.7%) and Union (9.9%) are on a similar level. Only Augsburg (13.2 %) is a clear positive outlier in this respect.<a href="#time-for-the-next-step"></a>Time for the next stepSo these statistics do not bear out the theory that Mainz is catastrophic in attack. On the contrary: Managing to convert…
Before the top match against Leipzig in a week’s time, Bayern first have to visit Mainz in the Bundesliga at the weekend and then play a home game against Hoffenheim in the DFB-Pokal. Our preview for the match against Mainz.Mainz is firmly embroiled in a relegation fight this season. An analysis of what they have to do better to ensure staying up is actually not all that difficult. Already in our preview of the reserve fixture we identified the hurriedness of their game as one of their biggest problems.Although then coach Sandro Schwarz had worked hard to improve this, he ultimately did not succeed and was dismissed in November. His successor became Achim Beierlorzer, who just a week earlier had still been coach of Cologne where he was released just one day before Schwarz was released at Mainz.11 games, 8 defeats, 3 victories – Beierlorzer’s predecessor had left him with a bleak legacy. Beierlorzer followed this up with three wins in eight games, but also five defeats – including three in a row in the last three games. The question of what exactly has improved under him is therefore difficult to answer.<a href="#mainz-success-through-calmness"></a>Mainz: Success through calmnessOne thing you could mention is match luck. Under Sandro Schwarz this was often missing. Need an example? On the Bundesliga’s second matchday, the team from Mainz lost 3-1 to Gladbach – the expected Goals (xG) by fbref.com gave the game a score of 1.2-1.5. On matchday 5, they lost away to Schalke with 2-1 – xG: 1.2-1.1. Then followed defeats against Wolfsburg (xG: 0.7-0.5) and Union (xG: 2.0-0.9). On the other hand, there were also a few somewhat lucky victories such as the ones against Hertha Berlin (xG: 1.8-2.2) and Cologne (xG: 1.3-1.9). All told, however, calling Mainz an unlucky team seems like a fair assessment to make.Under Beierlorzer it seemed at first as if their fate had taken a turn for the better. Already in the first game under him, Mainz managed a 5-1 victory against Hoffenheim – xG: 2.1-2.2. Only the defeats against Leverkusen and Freiburg deviated more significantly from the gap in xG.All their season’s matches taken together, Mainz has conceded significantly more goals than their xG against tally suggests. 33.4 xG against are way below their 44 actual goals conceded. An inquest into the causes, however, leads less to a verdict of bad luck, but more to the hectic pace of play already mentioned.<a href="#untapped-potential"></a>Untapped potentialBeierlorzer too has not yet found an adequate solution to this problem. Shortly before Christmas, he spoke openly about his team’s major issues: “We need consistency, more aggressiveness, better tackling. And also more straightforwardness and determination in handling the ball.” Too timid, too hesitant, too little determination – that sums it up in a nutshell. The team seems to be uncertain in their offensive game, although with 27 they have scored the second most goals in the lower half of the table behind Augsburg with 31.14.6 attempts per game is also the fifth best value in the league. But despite a much smaller sample size, we had already noticed a trend developing at Mainz before the reverse fixture last Summer, which the much more substantial data pool available now has confirmed: 46% of all shots at goal come from outside the penalty area. Only Dusseldorf has a higher proportion with 49%. The league average is 37.1%.Comparing the xG value of 26 with the total number of shots (278), Mainz’s probability of scoring a goal with a shot is around 9%. To put that into perspective: Düsseldorf (7.6%), Paderborn (10%), Bremen (9.6%), Cologne (9.9%), Hertha (10.7%) and Union (9.9%) are on a similar level. Only Augsburg (13.2 %) is a clear positive outlier in this respect.<a href="#time-for-the-next-step"></a>Time for the next stepSo these statistics do not bear out the theory that Mainz is catastrophic in attack. On the contrary: Managing to convert…
<b>Munich Finishes the Season in Style</b>
While Wolfsburg came out with a lot of energy and spirit, it was the team in red that would do all of the damage. Kingsley Coman started the scoring in just the 3rd minute on the back of a record setting assist from Thomas Müller and Bayern never looked back.Shortly before the break, Cuisance would make it 2-0 with his first ever Bundesliga goal. And what a goal it was! He received the ball outside the box, sidestepped a defender and blasted the ball into the top corner.After the break Bayern had a number of opportunities but failed to capitalize until Cuisance was brought down in the box and Guilavogui was sent off for a second yellow. Lewandowski converted the penalty for his 34th goal of the season and made it 3-0. Finally, Müller would get in on the scoring action by blasting a ball past Casteels after bringing down a cross from Ivan Perisic. That goal would be the last and was also Bayern’s 100th goal on the season, just short of another record.<a href="#professional-performance"></a>Professional PerformanceComing into this game, Bayern had very little to play for in terms of the Bundesliga. Their only goal really was to stay healthy and keep up the rhythm and momentum. They did exactly that and dispatched a motivated Wolfsburg squad with ease.While not important on paper, it is very important for the team in their coming matchup with Leverkusen and further down the road in the Champions League. It is a good indicator of their motivation, professionalism and general state of mind right now. This team is focused and has their eye on every prize they have available to them. They want to win. They want to dominate. They will not settle.While they have more challenges ahead to achieve their ultimate dreams of winning all three competitions they’re competing in this season, this focus and determination is a great sign for all Bayern fans. There is a real sense that this team is special and whether they ultimately win 1, 2 or 3 titles this season, that will not change.<a href="#farewells"></a>FarewellsThis match also allowed for several players to make one final appearance in the Bundesliga. More likely than not, we saw the last performances from Coutinho and Odriozola in the Bundesliga and maybe as members of Bayern Munich. While neither player’s time here was likely what either party hoped for, Coutinho especially had some important moments early in the season that should not be forgotten.Unfortunately Javi Martinez missed out on what maybe would have been his Bundesliga match with an injury. He has been such an important player for Bayern for such a long time that we can only hope he gets a proper farewell in another match. While it is not certain he will leave following the season, many reports seem to indicate it as a possibility.Whether this was the end for any other players is to be seen. It very well could have been for many players including Ivan Perisic, who’s loan comes to an end, though there have been negotiations to make the move permanent. There has been a lot of talk around some of the longterm players like Jerome Boateng, David Alaba and Thiago. Sven Ulreich also will likely move on with Nubel coming in.No matter who leaves and who stays, they will all have been a part of something special this season and have all contributed to Bayern in significant ways over their time here. For all those who do move on, we wish them all the best in life and on the field.<a href="#time-to-work"></a>Time to WorkThey don’t call this the business end of the season for nothing. Despite winning their 8th straight Bundesliga title, the players and coaches will not be satisfied or complacent in the following weeks. Just next week they have the DFB Pokal final in Berlin to prepare for, so any celebrations will have to be short and tame as tomorrow or Monday more likely, they will have to get right back to work.The match against Leverkusen will be a tough one. Leverkusen just missed out on the…
While Wolfsburg came out with a lot of energy and spirit, it was the team in red that would do all of the damage. Kingsley Coman started the scoring in just the 3rd minute on the back of a record setting assist from Thomas Müller and Bayern never looked back.Shortly before the break, Cuisance would make it 2-0 with his first ever Bundesliga goal. And what a goal it was! He received the ball outside the box, sidestepped a defender and blasted the ball into the top corner.After the break Bayern had a number of opportunities but failed to capitalize until Cuisance was brought down in the box and Guilavogui was sent off for a second yellow. Lewandowski converted the penalty for his 34th goal of the season and made it 3-0. Finally, Müller would get in on the scoring action by blasting a ball past Casteels after bringing down a cross from Ivan Perisic. That goal would be the last and was also Bayern’s 100th goal on the season, just short of another record.<a href="#professional-performance"></a>Professional PerformanceComing into this game, Bayern had very little to play for in terms of the Bundesliga. Their only goal really was to stay healthy and keep up the rhythm and momentum. They did exactly that and dispatched a motivated Wolfsburg squad with ease.While not important on paper, it is very important for the team in their coming matchup with Leverkusen and further down the road in the Champions League. It is a good indicator of their motivation, professionalism and general state of mind right now. This team is focused and has their eye on every prize they have available to them. They want to win. They want to dominate. They will not settle.While they have more challenges ahead to achieve their ultimate dreams of winning all three competitions they’re competing in this season, this focus and determination is a great sign for all Bayern fans. There is a real sense that this team is special and whether they ultimately win 1, 2 or 3 titles this season, that will not change.<a href="#farewells"></a>FarewellsThis match also allowed for several players to make one final appearance in the Bundesliga. More likely than not, we saw the last performances from Coutinho and Odriozola in the Bundesliga and maybe as members of Bayern Munich. While neither player’s time here was likely what either party hoped for, Coutinho especially had some important moments early in the season that should not be forgotten.Unfortunately Javi Martinez missed out on what maybe would have been his Bundesliga match with an injury. He has been such an important player for Bayern for such a long time that we can only hope he gets a proper farewell in another match. While it is not certain he will leave following the season, many reports seem to indicate it as a possibility.Whether this was the end for any other players is to be seen. It very well could have been for many players including Ivan Perisic, who’s loan comes to an end, though there have been negotiations to make the move permanent. There has been a lot of talk around some of the longterm players like Jerome Boateng, David Alaba and Thiago. Sven Ulreich also will likely move on with Nubel coming in.No matter who leaves and who stays, they will all have been a part of something special this season and have all contributed to Bayern in significant ways over their time here. For all those who do move on, we wish them all the best in life and on the field.<a href="#time-to-work"></a>Time to WorkThey don’t call this the business end of the season for nothing. Despite winning their 8th straight Bundesliga title, the players and coaches will not be satisfied or complacent in the following weeks. Just next week they have the DFB Pokal final in Berlin to prepare for, so any celebrations will have to be short and tame as tomorrow or Monday more likely, they will have to get right back to work.The match against Leverkusen will be a tough one. Leverkusen just missed out on the…
<b>Bayern Obliterated by Hoffenheim</b>
In their second match of the Bundesliga season, Bayern traveled to Hoffenheim to take on Sebastian Hoeneß’s side. The starting 11 raised a few eyebrows with the absences of Robert Lewandowski and Leon Goretzka in favor of Joshua Zirkzee and Corentin Tolisso. These moves were understandable however. Bayern have a very packed schedule ahead, they played 120 minutes on Thursday night and they are going to have to rotate players in order to keep everyone healthy.Whether it was these changes or any other myriad of reasons you could come up with, Bayern Munich for the first time under Hansi Flick lost. Not only did they lose however, they were completely outplayed and the 4-1 scoreline for Hoffenheim could have easily been 7 or 8 if they had converted some very easy chances and Neuer hadn’t made some epic saves.<a href="#kramaric-exploits"></a>Kramarić ExploitsSo much has been made of Bayern’s high backline under Hansi Flick. The “experts” across Europe expected that it would be Neymar and/or Mbappe that would exploit this trait. However, it was Andrej Kramarić that would be the one to really punish Bayern.From the start, Hoffenheim’s game plan was plain to see. Play quick balls over the back line and hope that the Croatian got on it. This plan worked better than probably anyone in Hoffenheim could have possibly predicted. Again and again they played seemingly perfect passes to Kramarić who had no trouble outpacing Bayern’s backline. While he didn’t actually get on the score sheet till the 77th minute, it was his runs that created most of the mischief in the match.<a href="#exhaustion"></a>ExhaustionFrom a Bayern perspective, it’s debatable how much they can take from this experience. I doubt that Hansi is going to change much based on this beating but he also can’t ignore how things played out today. Neither can the board and Salihamidžić. It is extremely early in this season, but the congested schedule, reduced summer break and general wear and tear are already becoming factors.Multiple players looked less than 100% today. Alaba, Davies, Boateng, Sané and Gnabry all appeared increasingly exhausted as the match went along. Most of them never really displayed the explosiveness that they normally possess. The passing was subpar. When those passes went awry, Hoffenheim’s long balls over the backline left the players struggling to catch up. These problems are only going to get worse. There are no huge gaps in the schedule this year for players to get rest naturally and while no doubt the players will play themselves into better condition, that exhaustion is going to play a massive role.<a href="#time-to-act"></a>Time to ActAs cliche as it has now become, squad depth is a real problem. While on the surface most of the players who appeared in today’s match are ones that we would be expecting to play a major part in Bayern’s season regardless of who they would potentially bring in, the adjustments in positioning that were required due to these changes is a problem. Kimmich specifically. In a match like todays, if you need or decided to take off Pavard, Kimmich then becomes the only option at right back. This was not a huge issue when Thiago was around, but now it creates a massive hole in the midfield. Goretzka and Tolisso have their strengths, but they do not provide the stability and organizational leadership that Kimmich does. No one else in the squad does. He is the engine of the team now and to remove that engine leaves them vulnerable in several areas.It doesn’t stop there though, even before Kimmich moved back, Tolisso’s presence in place of Goretzka was also an issue. Goretzka’s physical presence and ability against the ball has made him nearly as indispensable as Kimmich. Tolisso is still a good player, but his strengths are as a 2 way player. He does not provide the calming, steady presence of Kimmich and he doesn’t provide the strength and defensive prowess of Goretzka.…
In their second match of the Bundesliga season, Bayern traveled to Hoffenheim to take on Sebastian Hoeneß’s side. The starting 11 raised a few eyebrows with the absences of Robert Lewandowski and Leon Goretzka in favor of Joshua Zirkzee and Corentin Tolisso. These moves were understandable however. Bayern have a very packed schedule ahead, they played 120 minutes on Thursday night and they are going to have to rotate players in order to keep everyone healthy.Whether it was these changes or any other myriad of reasons you could come up with, Bayern Munich for the first time under Hansi Flick lost. Not only did they lose however, they were completely outplayed and the 4-1 scoreline for Hoffenheim could have easily been 7 or 8 if they had converted some very easy chances and Neuer hadn’t made some epic saves.<a href="#kramaric-exploits"></a>Kramarić ExploitsSo much has been made of Bayern’s high backline under Hansi Flick. The “experts” across Europe expected that it would be Neymar and/or Mbappe that would exploit this trait. However, it was Andrej Kramarić that would be the one to really punish Bayern.From the start, Hoffenheim’s game plan was plain to see. Play quick balls over the back line and hope that the Croatian got on it. This plan worked better than probably anyone in Hoffenheim could have possibly predicted. Again and again they played seemingly perfect passes to Kramarić who had no trouble outpacing Bayern’s backline. While he didn’t actually get on the score sheet till the 77th minute, it was his runs that created most of the mischief in the match.<a href="#exhaustion"></a>ExhaustionFrom a Bayern perspective, it’s debatable how much they can take from this experience. I doubt that Hansi is going to change much based on this beating but he also can’t ignore how things played out today. Neither can the board and Salihamidžić. It is extremely early in this season, but the congested schedule, reduced summer break and general wear and tear are already becoming factors.Multiple players looked less than 100% today. Alaba, Davies, Boateng, Sané and Gnabry all appeared increasingly exhausted as the match went along. Most of them never really displayed the explosiveness that they normally possess. The passing was subpar. When those passes went awry, Hoffenheim’s long balls over the backline left the players struggling to catch up. These problems are only going to get worse. There are no huge gaps in the schedule this year for players to get rest naturally and while no doubt the players will play themselves into better condition, that exhaustion is going to play a massive role.<a href="#time-to-act"></a>Time to ActAs cliche as it has now become, squad depth is a real problem. While on the surface most of the players who appeared in today’s match are ones that we would be expecting to play a major part in Bayern’s season regardless of who they would potentially bring in, the adjustments in positioning that were required due to these changes is a problem. Kimmich specifically. In a match like todays, if you need or decided to take off Pavard, Kimmich then becomes the only option at right back. This was not a huge issue when Thiago was around, but now it creates a massive hole in the midfield. Goretzka and Tolisso have their strengths, but they do not provide the stability and organizational leadership that Kimmich does. No one else in the squad does. He is the engine of the team now and to remove that engine leaves them vulnerable in several areas.It doesn’t stop there though, even before Kimmich moved back, Tolisso’s presence in place of Goretzka was also an issue. Goretzka’s physical presence and ability against the ball has made him nearly as indispensable as Kimmich. Tolisso is still a good player, but his strengths are as a 2 way player. He does not provide the calming, steady presence of Kimmich and he doesn’t provide the strength and defensive prowess of Goretzka.…