<b>Thiago the fighter</b>
April 2020. Coronavirus has brought all sport to a grinding halt and the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. The resumption of professional football is a distant prospect at best.While the time without regular games poses manifold challenges to players, supporters, and the media alike, it at least affords a little breathing space for some more profound and thorough analyses and observations that might get lost in the shuffle in normal times.The German football magazine <em>Kicker</em>, for example, recently wrote a portrait of Thiago, whose contract will expire in the summer of 2021, which naturally gives rise to some interesting speculations about his future.<a href="#according-to-kicker-thiago-has-changed-from-an-artist-to-a-worker"></a>According to <em>Kicker</em>, Thiago has changed from an artist to a workerIn their article on Thiago from 21 February, 2020, the <em>Kicker</em> describes the process of this transformation. They hold that the change in coach from Kovač to Flick prompted Thiago to fundamentally reconsider his style of play. He realized that playing football was not all about “aesthetic no-look passes”, but also contained such “basic elements” as “robust challenges and tackles”, particularly in a competition like the Bundesliga.<a href="https://miasanrot.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/03/hertha-bsc-v-fc-bayern-muenchen-bundesliga-2-935x650.jpg">Media</a><strong>Thiago Alcántara celebrates his goal against Hertha BSC.</strong>
(Image: Stuart Franklin/Bongarts/Getty Images)In doing so, the Kicker once more reinforcerd the equally well-established as unfounded contention that Thiago has been faced with ever since his arrival in Munich many years ago. He is considered a technical player with a lot of shiny moves no doubt, but if you want to succeed in Germany, you need to be willing to work hard and go the extra mile. And that is what he supposedly does not do.<a href="#the-rate-of-challenges-won-is-no-evidence-for-the-prevailing-theory"></a>The rate of challenges won is no evidence for the prevailing theoryEvidence to substantiate the claim? Hardly any. The Kicker’s conclusion is apparently based on a slightly improved rate of challenges he has won recently. However, there are certain issues with this particular statistic.<a href="#weaknesses-of-the-challenges-won-statistic"></a>Weaknesses of the challenges won statisticMartin Rafelt, author at spielverlagerung.de as well as a coach and analyst at Hajduk Split, already explained the problems with this statistic based on the example of a match of Dortmund against Augsburg several years ago: The main problem with any challenges-related statistic is that it is unclear what exactly constitutes a won or lost challenge. It is also quite uncertain what value a higher rate of won challenges really adds to a team.<a href="#one-statistic-alone-does-not-say-a-lot"></a>One statistic alone does not say a lotIt should be noted that the rate of challenges won without the absolute numbers of challenges for perspective has to be treated with caution. With 9 challenges in a match, the difference between a celebrated 56% and a criticized 44% of challenges won is often only the difference of a single challenge (5/9 vs. 4/9 challenges won) in the primary data.Considering the problems in data collection and the ambiguity of interpretation mentioned by Rafelt, this in itself should already give you pause.<a href="#there-is-not-the-one-best-statistic-for-challenges"></a>There is not the one best statistic for challengesRafelt also rightly points out that there is no defined event of a “challenge” in the primary sports data Opta records. The figures regularly quoted in German sports media are computed from various Opta values.It is therefore unclear whether the Kicker’s challenge statistic refers exclusively to defensive actions or whether offensive actions such as dribbles are included as well.I have tried to reproduce the challenge statistics…
April 2020. Coronavirus has brought all sport to a grinding halt and the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. The resumption of professional football is a distant prospect at best.While the time without regular games poses manifold challenges to players, supporters, and the media alike, it at least affords a little breathing space for some more profound and thorough analyses and observations that might get lost in the shuffle in normal times.The German football magazine <em>Kicker</em>, for example, recently wrote a portrait of Thiago, whose contract will expire in the summer of 2021, which naturally gives rise to some interesting speculations about his future.<a href="#according-to-kicker-thiago-has-changed-from-an-artist-to-a-worker"></a>According to <em>Kicker</em>, Thiago has changed from an artist to a workerIn their article on Thiago from 21 February, 2020, the <em>Kicker</em> describes the process of this transformation. They hold that the change in coach from Kovač to Flick prompted Thiago to fundamentally reconsider his style of play. He realized that playing football was not all about “aesthetic no-look passes”, but also contained such “basic elements” as “robust challenges and tackles”, particularly in a competition like the Bundesliga.<a href="https://miasanrot.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/03/hertha-bsc-v-fc-bayern-muenchen-bundesliga-2-935x650.jpg">Media</a><strong>Thiago Alcántara celebrates his goal against Hertha BSC.</strong>
(Image: Stuart Franklin/Bongarts/Getty Images)In doing so, the Kicker once more reinforcerd the equally well-established as unfounded contention that Thiago has been faced with ever since his arrival in Munich many years ago. He is considered a technical player with a lot of shiny moves no doubt, but if you want to succeed in Germany, you need to be willing to work hard and go the extra mile. And that is what he supposedly does not do.<a href="#the-rate-of-challenges-won-is-no-evidence-for-the-prevailing-theory"></a>The rate of challenges won is no evidence for the prevailing theoryEvidence to substantiate the claim? Hardly any. The Kicker’s conclusion is apparently based on a slightly improved rate of challenges he has won recently. However, there are certain issues with this particular statistic.<a href="#weaknesses-of-the-challenges-won-statistic"></a>Weaknesses of the challenges won statisticMartin Rafelt, author at spielverlagerung.de as well as a coach and analyst at Hajduk Split, already explained the problems with this statistic based on the example of a match of Dortmund against Augsburg several years ago: The main problem with any challenges-related statistic is that it is unclear what exactly constitutes a won or lost challenge. It is also quite uncertain what value a higher rate of won challenges really adds to a team.<a href="#one-statistic-alone-does-not-say-a-lot"></a>One statistic alone does not say a lotIt should be noted that the rate of challenges won without the absolute numbers of challenges for perspective has to be treated with caution. With 9 challenges in a match, the difference between a celebrated 56% and a criticized 44% of challenges won is often only the difference of a single challenge (5/9 vs. 4/9 challenges won) in the primary data.Considering the problems in data collection and the ambiguity of interpretation mentioned by Rafelt, this in itself should already give you pause.<a href="#there-is-not-the-one-best-statistic-for-challenges"></a>There is not the one best statistic for challengesRafelt also rightly points out that there is no defined event of a “challenge” in the primary sports data Opta records. The figures regularly quoted in German sports media are computed from various Opta values.It is therefore unclear whether the Kicker’s challenge statistic refers exclusively to defensive actions or whether offensive actions such as dribbles are included as well.I have tried to reproduce the challenge statistics…
<b>UEFA Supercup Preview: Bayern vs. Sevilla</b>
After the 8:0 battering of Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga last weekend, most people in Germany seem to have made up their minds already: Unless something crazy happens, FC Bayern will win their 9th championship in a row this season. But what about their prospects on the international stage? This Thursday evening will provide a first indication of their early season form.A special evening will await the two teams of FC Bayern and Sevilla on Thursday, for several reasons. For one, the UEFA Supercup is not only about winning just another trophy, it is also about realizing what staging a mass event in a high-risk COVID-19 area like Budapest means. A maximum of 3,000 fans for both clubs, respectively, are allowed to enter the country to attend the game, and a total of 20,000 spectators are allowed into the stadium. Due to a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, Hungary has closed its borders for entry of foreign nationals since September 1 – the only exception being the Supercup final.It is more than questionable whether this has been the right decision. Ultimately, staging a mass event in a coronavirus hotspot does not come without risks. In Germany, if a region surpasses a threshold of 35 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days, no matches may be played with fans present in the stadium in the Bundesliga in that region. In Budapest, the figure is around 100 (as of September 20 2020) – about twice as high as in Munich.As is so often the case, only hindsight will show whether such concerns will have been valid. And yet, regardless of the outcome, the question must be asked whether football, having been given preferential treatment once again, is worth taking the risk in the first place.<a href="#fc-sevilla-the-europa-leagues-serial-champions"></a>FC Sevilla: The Europa League’s serial championsThen there is the issue of the value of the European Supercup as a sporting competition. If you look at the games of the recent past, they were always entertaining and usually closely contested affairs at a very high level. On top of this, both FC Bayern and Sevilla surely would like to win the cup and add another achievement to their outstanding year.For the Spanish side, the game effectively means the beginning of their season. It will be difficult for anyone to properly judge the European League winners’ form at present because their first two games against Atlético Madrid and FC Elche have been postponed. In terms of their squad, however, not much has changed. Éver Banega (32), a veteran of Spanish soccer, has left the club, but Sevilla was able to compensate for his departure with the signing of Ivan Rakitic (31), who returned to his old club for an initial sum of €1.5m plus additional potential bonuses after moving from Sevilla to Barcelona in 2014. The loss of Sergio Ruguilón (23) after the end of his loan could also be made up for, at least in theory, with the signing of Marcos Acuña (28). The Argentinean is fast, dynamic and versatile. He can be used in the left-back position and in midfield equally well.They also made the loan of Suso (26), who had joined from AC Milan last winter, permanent for €24m. He has yet to prove his value, having scored only two goals and one assist in his 23 matches for the club so far. Also worth mentioning is the signing of Óscar Rodriguez (22) from Real Madrid for €13.5m. During his loan spell at Leganés, the attacking midfielder was able to show his quality at times and is now taking the next step by joining an ambitious club that enjoys a great deal of recognition in Europe.<a href="#there-is-strength-in-calmness"></a>There is strength in calmnessAfter all, Sevilla are the record winners of the UEFA Europa League and former UEFA Cup. The Spanish team has reached the final six times (2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2020), having won six of them. Their opponents of the most recent final, Inter Milan, come in third place on this list, having…
After the 8:0 battering of Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga last weekend, most people in Germany seem to have made up their minds already: Unless something crazy happens, FC Bayern will win their 9th championship in a row this season. But what about their prospects on the international stage? This Thursday evening will provide a first indication of their early season form.A special evening will await the two teams of FC Bayern and Sevilla on Thursday, for several reasons. For one, the UEFA Supercup is not only about winning just another trophy, it is also about realizing what staging a mass event in a high-risk COVID-19 area like Budapest means. A maximum of 3,000 fans for both clubs, respectively, are allowed to enter the country to attend the game, and a total of 20,000 spectators are allowed into the stadium. Due to a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, Hungary has closed its borders for entry of foreign nationals since September 1 – the only exception being the Supercup final.It is more than questionable whether this has been the right decision. Ultimately, staging a mass event in a coronavirus hotspot does not come without risks. In Germany, if a region surpasses a threshold of 35 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days, no matches may be played with fans present in the stadium in the Bundesliga in that region. In Budapest, the figure is around 100 (as of September 20 2020) – about twice as high as in Munich.As is so often the case, only hindsight will show whether such concerns will have been valid. And yet, regardless of the outcome, the question must be asked whether football, having been given preferential treatment once again, is worth taking the risk in the first place.<a href="#fc-sevilla-the-europa-leagues-serial-champions"></a>FC Sevilla: The Europa League’s serial championsThen there is the issue of the value of the European Supercup as a sporting competition. If you look at the games of the recent past, they were always entertaining and usually closely contested affairs at a very high level. On top of this, both FC Bayern and Sevilla surely would like to win the cup and add another achievement to their outstanding year.For the Spanish side, the game effectively means the beginning of their season. It will be difficult for anyone to properly judge the European League winners’ form at present because their first two games against Atlético Madrid and FC Elche have been postponed. In terms of their squad, however, not much has changed. Éver Banega (32), a veteran of Spanish soccer, has left the club, but Sevilla was able to compensate for his departure with the signing of Ivan Rakitic (31), who returned to his old club for an initial sum of €1.5m plus additional potential bonuses after moving from Sevilla to Barcelona in 2014. The loss of Sergio Ruguilón (23) after the end of his loan could also be made up for, at least in theory, with the signing of Marcos Acuña (28). The Argentinean is fast, dynamic and versatile. He can be used in the left-back position and in midfield equally well.They also made the loan of Suso (26), who had joined from AC Milan last winter, permanent for €24m. He has yet to prove his value, having scored only two goals and one assist in his 23 matches for the club so far. Also worth mentioning is the signing of Óscar Rodriguez (22) from Real Madrid for €13.5m. During his loan spell at Leganés, the attacking midfielder was able to show his quality at times and is now taking the next step by joining an ambitious club that enjoys a great deal of recognition in Europe.<a href="#there-is-strength-in-calmness"></a>There is strength in calmnessAfter all, Sevilla are the record winners of the UEFA Europa League and former UEFA Cup. The Spanish team has reached the final six times (2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2020), having won six of them. Their opponents of the most recent final, Inter Milan, come in third place on this list, having…