Steffan Watkins (Retweeted by The Intel Crab)

Justin Peden 🦀🇺🇦
RT @5472_nde: #CanadianAF CP140 on eastern Mediterranean mission? #RCAF 1456z https://t.co/Ucqjlfz4FI
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OSINTdefender
RT @RCAFOperations: Today a @RCAF_ARC CC-130J Hercules transported donations from the Government of Iceland. Since March, the Air Task Force based in Prestwick🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿has flown over 5.6 million pounds of allied and partner nation cargo in support of Ukraine! #RCAF #C130 https://t.co/ASPsFxOG0h
Today we dispatched 9 tons of winter apparel to Ukraine, including winter boots, pullovers, parkas & 3500 pairs of wooly socks knitted by people in 🇮🇸. Hope this will bring warmth to the brave Armed Forces of Ukraine during the cold winter months. Thanks to 🇨🇦 for the transport! https://t.co/h20VQsCaUZ - Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir🇮🇸
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The Intel Crab
RT @steffanwatkins: "TruDeAu flew TO tHe carIbbeaN FOr vaCaTIOn iN secReT"

No. The CAF has several concurrent small missions underway in the Caribbean. #RCAF aircraft fly sustainment flights to them, and also transport Canadian Forces service members regularly, especially before Christmas.
#CFC3045 https://t.co/U5t2q52iQA
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WarMonitor 🇺🇲🇺🇦
RT @RCAFOperations: The @RCAF_ARC has delivered the 4th Leopard 2 in support of 🇺🇦. Using a number of aircrew, air movements crews and the Prestwick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿operations hub, this mission was accomplished thanks to the flexibility of #airpower and dedication for which the #RCAF is known. BZ to all! https://t.co/iZ5JY5fURc
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Evergreen Intel
RT @steffanwatkins: @tshugart3 @vcdgf555 @CNASdc You'll notice that temporary surges in #USNavy P-8A Poseidon and #RCAF CP-140 Aurora aircraft to Keflavik, and the frequency of patrols, mark transits through the GIUK gap. Surface and subsurface Russian Navy operations in the Atlantic remain a shadow of Soviet Cold War levels.
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Evergreen Intel
Perhaps late showings to 🇳🇴 #JointViking23 & #jointwarrior23 ?

🇨🇦 CP-140 Aurora 140115 #C2B233
🇨🇦 CP-140 Aurora 140116 #C2B23D https://t.co/gW4tg9RANE https://t.co/ZgxmbsuXTz
🇨🇦 #RCAF CP-140 Aurora 140115 and 140116 are done with Ex #DynamicManta, and seem to be heading in the direction of #Prestwick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿, or maybe even #Keflavik 🇮🇸? Nah, I'm not that lucky.

https://t.co/dEz9JiYxnn
#C2B233 #C2B23D https://t.co/iFSf7Yvk9I - Steffan Watkins
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The Intel Crab
RT @steffanwatkins: Here's a link with, as best as this thread has cobbled together, all the aircraft that have been involved.

1x 🇨🇦 RCAF CP-140 Aurora
1x 🇨🇦 RCAF CC-130H Hercules
2x 🇺🇸 #USCG C-130J Hercules
1x 🇺🇸 #USAF ANG Hercules

Sorry, no #RCAF P-8 Poseidon, yet! globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao…
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Evergreen Intel
RT @steffanwatkins: Replying to @steffanwatkins: 🇨🇦 There's a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora that seems to be circling the 🇷🇺 Russian Navy flotilla that seems stationary off the coast of Florida 🇺🇸, due in Havana 🇨🇺 on Wednesday.

If you haven't heard that from your news media of choice, ask them about it. #RCAF

On June 5, 7, 9, and 10 (where they are now) they conducted flights to observe the Russian Navy flotilla in the US EEZ, in international waters.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao… - Steffan Watkins 
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The Intel Crab
RT @steffanwatkins: Replying to @steffanwatkins @TarasChuprynk @IntelCrab: I think we've been had re: Beirut. They're still conducting an evacuation, but I think they're staging out of Cyprus. It's news to me that there's GOS jamming on the ground in Cyprus. 👀

I don't usually turn the timestamps on for every dot, but this time it's a good idea. Pay close attention to the time it takes for a #RCAF CC-177 Globemaster (177705 #C2B3FF #CFC4051) to move at 500kt eastward toward Cyprus; napkin math, it moves a few inches in a half hour, depending on your scale.

From the left edge of my screenshot to Paphos (Cyprus, where they landed) it took about a half hour to land. To make it from Paphos to Beirut, it would take at least another half hour. Unless the datapoint at 13:59 was being spoofed, there's no reason to believe the datapoint at 14:11 is really from Beirut. That appears to be GPS spoofing, coming from a nearly source to the aircraft in Cyprus(!). I'm sure they landed in Paphos, after that it gets a little dicey.

From 14:01-14:12 they appeared to be on the ground per ADS-B, logically still in Paphos. Historically, it would usually take a plane about an hour from the time they land to the time they take off again. I'm sure that depends on many factors, but just toss that number out there. If they refuelled in Paphos, they might take off an hour+ later, but they still have to get to Beirut before they can depart from Beirut, if you see where I'm going. That's another half hour trip - maybe they could get there by 15:45? Pure speculation.

They actually resumed transmitting ADS-B at 16:11-16:13 still on the ground somewhere, two hours after they landed in Paphos, a location where GPS-spoofing is occuring at and affecting them at ground level. If you crack open the KML, you see they started gaining altitude at 16:14; their ADS-B transmissions had them near Beirut, but that doesn't mean anything in an environment where GPS spoofing is occuring. - Steffan Watkins 
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