Bitcoin resists equity market pressure
#Bitcoin declined 0.4% over the past week, ending at around $19,900 without experiencing any significant movement during that time. For now, we can only say that the crypto market is wagering on the strengthening of the dollar, and to a markedly lesser extent than other markets.
#Ethereum added 5.9% to $1570, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 1.3% (BNB) to a growth of 13% (Cardano).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.5% over the week to $976bn.
Bitcoin stood aloof from key market movements last week, moving on a short leash around $20K. Meanwhile, dollar continued to renew multi-year highs and stock markets returned to a sell-off.
#Cardano rose sharply at the end of the week on the back of the news. IOHK, the company behind the Cardano project, has set a date for Vasil's update - the largest and most important hardfork in the project's history will take place on September 22.
#Bitcoin declined 0.4% over the past week, ending at around $19,900 without experiencing any significant movement during that time. For now, we can only say that the crypto market is wagering on the strengthening of the dollar, and to a markedly lesser extent than other markets.
#Ethereum added 5.9% to $1570, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 1.3% (BNB) to a growth of 13% (Cardano).
Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.5% over the week to $976bn.
Bitcoin stood aloof from key market movements last week, moving on a short leash around $20K. Meanwhile, dollar continued to renew multi-year highs and stock markets returned to a sell-off.
#Cardano rose sharply at the end of the week on the back of the news. IOHK, the company behind the Cardano project, has set a date for Vasil's update - the largest and most important hardfork in the project's history will take place on September 22.
#Bitcoin returned to growth on Tuesday and was approaching $17.5K in early trading on Wednesday, developing its smooth ascent to levels last seen in mid-December.
Total crypto market capitalisation has risen 1% in the last 24 hours to $857bn, while top altcoins are adding between 0.1% (#Cardano) and 3.9% (#XRP).
Bitcoin will confirm its bullish trend if it consolidates above 17800 at the end - the highest close of the day in December. In this case, the sequence of higher highs will be started, whereas, since November, we only have a sequence of higher local lows.
Despite DCG's accumulated problems, the price of bitcoin trust Grayscale (GBTC) rose 12% overnight thanks to news of Morgan Stanley's $3.6 purchase of Grayscale Investments' bitcoin shares. The discount in the value of GBTC relative to NAV (bitcoin market price) fell to 38% from a record 49% recorded on 13 December.
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Total crypto market capitalisation has risen 1% in the last 24 hours to $857bn, while top altcoins are adding between 0.1% (#Cardano) and 3.9% (#XRP).
Bitcoin will confirm its bullish trend if it consolidates above 17800 at the end - the highest close of the day in December. In this case, the sequence of higher highs will be started, whereas, since November, we only have a sequence of higher local lows.
Despite DCG's accumulated problems, the price of bitcoin trust Grayscale (GBTC) rose 12% overnight thanks to news of Morgan Stanley's $3.6 purchase of Grayscale Investments' bitcoin shares. The discount in the value of GBTC relative to NAV (bitcoin market price) fell to 38% from a record 49% recorded on 13 December.
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#Bitcoin fell 6.9% last week to close at $26,900, while #Ethereum lost 6.2% to $1800. Top-10 leading altcoins lost between 3.1% (#Cardano) and 12.2% (#Polygon).
The total capitalisation of the crypto market fell by 5.5% over the week to $1.13 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. One of the main reasons was issues at Binance, where BTC withdrawals were suspended twice.
Bitcoin proved interesting for sellers as it touched the 200-week average, passing close to $26,000 last Friday. By defending this key average, the bulls have convinced the market of the sustainability of the long-term bullish trend. On Saturday and Sunday, the Bulls defended the $26.8K level.
On Monday, investors switched to active buying and pushed the price to $27.5K. However, cautious buyers will likely want to see a $28-28.5K takedown as confirmation of the break of last month's downtrend.
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The total capitalisation of the crypto market fell by 5.5% over the week to $1.13 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. One of the main reasons was issues at Binance, where BTC withdrawals were suspended twice.
Bitcoin proved interesting for sellers as it touched the 200-week average, passing close to $26,000 last Friday. By defending this key average, the bulls have convinced the market of the sustainability of the long-term bullish trend. On Saturday and Sunday, the Bulls defended the $26.8K level.
On Monday, investors switched to active buying and pushed the price to $27.5K. However, cautious buyers will likely want to see a $28-28.5K takedown as confirmation of the break of last month's downtrend.
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The crypto market cap has fallen 1.6% over the past 24 hours to $1.10 trillion, back to the levels from which the market rebounded almost two weeks ago. At the same time, #Bitcoin is down 2%, #Ethereum is down 2.2%, and the top altcoins are losing between 0.5% (#Solana) and 3% (#Cardano). #Polygon (+0.8% in 24 hours) and #Tron (+10% in 7 days) beat the headwinds.
The price of Bitcoin dipped below $26K at the start of trading on Thursday, a level it has been consistently above since March 17th. Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally in March and April amid fears over the safety of funds held by regional US banks. As this issue has faded from the headlines, cryptocurrencies have reversed into a correction.
On the technical analysis front, the $25K level is seen as a critical stop on the way down, with little support found on the journey to that level.
Ethereum has rolled back to the lower end of the last two months' range at $1777. A further move lower opens the door to $1700.
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The price of Bitcoin dipped below $26K at the start of trading on Thursday, a level it has been consistently above since March 17th. Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally in March and April amid fears over the safety of funds held by regional US banks. As this issue has faded from the headlines, cryptocurrencies have reversed into a correction.
On the technical analysis front, the $25K level is seen as a critical stop on the way down, with little support found on the journey to that level.
Ethereum has rolled back to the lower end of the last two months' range at $1777. A further move lower opens the door to $1700.
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The crypto market cap has been virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours, remaining near 1.1 trillion. Bitcoin is marginally higher, up 0.1%, while Ethereum is down 0.3%. Top altcoins show more amplitude, ranging from a 3.2% drop (#Cardano) to a 1% gain (#Polygon).
#Bitcoin is trading near $26.5K - in the middle of the previous day's trading range and just above the psychologically important 200-week moving average. A break below this level could trigger a deeper decline to $24.5K (previous high) or even $22.2K (50-week moving average).
In #Ethereum, the 50-week moving average has crossed up from the 200-week moving average, and a price above this crossover would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend.
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#Bitcoin is trading near $26.5K - in the middle of the previous day's trading range and just above the psychologically important 200-week moving average. A break below this level could trigger a deeper decline to $24.5K (previous high) or even $22.2K (50-week moving average).
In #Ethereum, the 50-week moving average has crossed up from the 200-week moving average, and a price above this crossover would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend.
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The crypto market cap rose 1% in 24 hours to $1.06 trillion. Bitcoin adds 1%, while #Ethereum just 0.4%. Meanwhile, the top altcoins try to recover some losses, adding between 0.2% (#Cardano) and 4% (#BNB). The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index is in the Fear territory at 45 (-2 points overnight), whereas the Fear & Greed index for the stock market is at 79 (extreme greed).
#Bitcoin is struggling for a third day to hold above $26K. This struggle away from meaningful technical levels shows how heavy the crypto market is right now, despite optimism in equities and a slightly decreased USD rate. Technically, to break the downtrend, Bitcoin needs to overcome $27K, and a drop below $26.5K is required to confirm the downtrend. The second scenario seems more likely.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $88 million last week, the most in three months and the eighth consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin fell by $52 million and Ethereum by $36 million.
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#Bitcoin is struggling for a third day to hold above $26K. This struggle away from meaningful technical levels shows how heavy the crypto market is right now, despite optimism in equities and a slightly decreased USD rate. Technically, to break the downtrend, Bitcoin needs to overcome $27K, and a drop below $26.5K is required to confirm the downtrend. The second scenario seems more likely.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $88 million last week, the most in three months and the eighth consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin fell by $52 million and Ethereum by $36 million.
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Crypto market capitalisation fell a further 1.6% overnight to 1,137 trillion. A brief dip in the morning to 1,113 took the market to its lowest level in almost two months. Bitcoin is down 1.7%, Ethereum is down 1.2%, with the top altcoins losing between 0.8% (#Cardano) and 7% (Bitcoin Cash).
#Bitcoin slipped to $28.3K in light trading early Thursday morning before stabilising at $28.6K. The fall below $28.8K confirmed the local dominance of the bears. The following key support points are now at the next round level of $28K and then at the $27.2K area, where the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from last November are centred.
#Ethereum pulled back below $1800 and tested its 200-day moving average. It bounced steadily from this level in March and June. Given the bearish sentiment in global markets and rising government bond yields, the chances of a drop to the previous lows of $1630 are increasing.
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#Bitcoin slipped to $28.3K in light trading early Thursday morning before stabilising at $28.6K. The fall below $28.8K confirmed the local dominance of the bears. The following key support points are now at the next round level of $28K and then at the $27.2K area, where the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from last November are centred.
#Ethereum pulled back below $1800 and tested its 200-day moving average. It bounced steadily from this level in March and June. Given the bearish sentiment in global markets and rising government bond yields, the chances of a drop to the previous lows of $1630 are increasing.
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Crypto market cap rose 0.6% over the past 24 hours to $1.33 trillion as altcoins outperformed.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose sharply again last week, adding $261 million, the sixth consecutive week of inflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $229 million, Ethereum by $18 million and Solana by $11 million.
#XRP rose to $0.73 by the end of the day on Monday. Reaching this level triggered a solid but short-lived wave of profit-taking. This sentiment has spread, albeit with less intensity, to other leading altcoins such as #Solana, #Cardano and #Litecoin. So far, it looks like a quick recharge rather than the start of an extended correction, as the weakness is neither shared by Bitcoin and Ether nor by the equity markets.
#Ethereum, which had seen limited gains recently, rose for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, trading close to $1900, the highest level in four months.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose sharply again last week, adding $261 million, the sixth consecutive week of inflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $229 million, Ethereum by $18 million and Solana by $11 million.
#XRP rose to $0.73 by the end of the day on Monday. Reaching this level triggered a solid but short-lived wave of profit-taking. This sentiment has spread, albeit with less intensity, to other leading altcoins such as #Solana, #Cardano and #Litecoin. So far, it looks like a quick recharge rather than the start of an extended correction, as the weakness is neither shared by Bitcoin and Ether nor by the equity markets.
#Ethereum, which had seen limited gains recently, rose for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, trading close to $1900, the highest level in four months.
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On Wednesday, the #crypto market experienced a new growth spurt, rising 4.6% in 24 hours to $1.44 trillion, updating highs since May 2022. Bitcoin and several altcoins returned to the highs they tested a week earlier. #Cardano (+11.11%) and #Solana (+10.5%) led the growth among the leading coins.
Once again, the dynamics of crypto and equity markets have diverged. However, it should be noted that this seemingly negative correlation only works in the short term, as both asset classes have been rising steadily since October.
#Bitcoin tested the $38K area again on Thursday morning. For now, it is not giving up. A move higher would renew the highs from May 2022, and it makes sense that the bulls would need a reason to break it up. However, the chances of further gains are higher than a reversal to the downside. If we accept that Tuesday's decline was a correction, it has opened the way to $45-46K.
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Once again, the dynamics of crypto and equity markets have diverged. However, it should be noted that this seemingly negative correlation only works in the short term, as both asset classes have been rising steadily since October.
#Bitcoin tested the $38K area again on Thursday morning. For now, it is not giving up. A move higher would renew the highs from May 2022, and it makes sense that the bulls would need a reason to break it up. However, the chances of further gains are higher than a reversal to the downside. If we accept that Tuesday's decline was a correction, it has opened the way to $45-46K.
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#Crypto market capitalisation changed little at the end of trading on Wednesday, remaining close to $1.59 trillion (-0.14% d/d). But this modest result is a show of strength, given the pressure in equity markets, which intensified selling in #Bitcoin and #Ethereum.
Meanwhile, Altcoins got their chance to catch up with the leaders. For example, XRP added 2% in 24h) and #Cardano added 4%.
#XRP has formed an upward trend since mid-October. An attempt to accelerate growth last month failed, but it also failed to break this line at the start of December. In addition to the trend line, the 50-day moving average, the touch of which stops the sell-off for the last 50 days, also turned out to be on the side of buyers.
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Meanwhile, Altcoins got their chance to catch up with the leaders. For example, XRP added 2% in 24h) and #Cardano added 4%.
#XRP has formed an upward trend since mid-October. An attempt to accelerate growth last month failed, but it also failed to break this line at the start of December. In addition to the trend line, the 50-day moving average, the touch of which stops the sell-off for the last 50 days, also turned out to be on the side of buyers.
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The #crypto market has added over 2% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin gained 3% during this time, #Ethereum rose 1.75%, while #Solana and #Cardano outperformed the market, adding 5.7% and 8.3%, respectively.
The outperformance in major altcoins points to a broadening of participant interest beyond the two largest coins. But don't expect sustained demand for smaller altcoins or meme coins this year - it usually happens after a prolonged bull market.
#Bitcoin has exceeded its 50-day moving average, climbing above $43.3K. This is important but not yet solid evidence of a bullish trend. However, the altcoins' consistently positive performance over the past six days is setting up optimism, setting up Bitcoin for a test of $46K.
According to CoinShares data, bitcoin investments decreased by $479 million, Ethereum - by $39 million, and Solana - by $3 million. Investments in funds allowing to open bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
The outperformance in major altcoins points to a broadening of participant interest beyond the two largest coins. But don't expect sustained demand for smaller altcoins or meme coins this year - it usually happens after a prolonged bull market.
#Bitcoin has exceeded its 50-day moving average, climbing above $43.3K. This is important but not yet solid evidence of a bullish trend. However, the altcoins' consistently positive performance over the past six days is setting up optimism, setting up Bitcoin for a test of $46K.
According to CoinShares data, bitcoin investments decreased by $479 million, Ethereum - by $39 million, and Solana - by $3 million. Investments in funds allowing to open bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
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The #crypto market continues to rise, adding 2.3% to the level of 24 hours ago. Bitcoin's capitalisation has surpassed 1 trillion, and its share of all coins is estimated at 52.5% by CoinMarketCap. The increase in share is due to USDT and the relative stagnation of the share of other cryptocurrencies outside the top five.
#Bitcoin's price has surpassed $52.2K, the highest level since the end of 2021. Buyers in the first cryptocurrency are so strong that we don't even see a prolonged consolidation. This dynamic reinforces our view that the next meaningful shakeout may not come before the approach of 60K, where there were several inflexion points in 2021.
#Ethereum is updating highs, but this is the highest level since July 2022. #Solana has been at highs since late December last year, #Cardano has only recovered to levels from 13 January, and #XRP has been at its highest since 22 January. Clearly, the bigger the coin now, the more attention it gets.
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#Bitcoin's price has surpassed $52.2K, the highest level since the end of 2021. Buyers in the first cryptocurrency are so strong that we don't even see a prolonged consolidation. This dynamic reinforces our view that the next meaningful shakeout may not come before the approach of 60K, where there were several inflexion points in 2021.
#Ethereum is updating highs, but this is the highest level since July 2022. #Solana has been at highs since late December last year, #Cardano has only recovered to levels from 13 January, and #XRP has been at its highest since 22 January. Clearly, the bigger the coin now, the more attention it gets.
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The #crypto market is up 1.7% from 24 hours ago, with Bitcoin stuck between $51.5K and $52.5K. Buying interest has focused on the major altcoins such as #BNB (+3.6%), #XRP (+3.5%) and #Cardano (+4%), which were lagging the day before, but they are just trying to keep up with Bitcoin's rise. In our opinion, altcoins' time will come when the first cryptocurrency has reached its historic highs and looks too expensive. But it could be another year before that happens.
Moreover, history suggests the market will pick new altcoins with each new growth cycle. The stars of the past era don't always manage to rewrite their all-time highs, so there's no rush to pick altcoins at this stage of the cycle.
As a result of another recalculation, the difficulty of mining the first cryptocurrency increased by 8.24%. The indicator updated the historical maximum at 81.7 T. The average hashrate for the period since the previous change in value was 583.92 EH/s.
Moreover, history suggests the market will pick new altcoins with each new growth cycle. The stars of the past era don't always manage to rewrite their all-time highs, so there's no rush to pick altcoins at this stage of the cycle.
As a result of another recalculation, the difficulty of mining the first cryptocurrency increased by 8.24%. The indicator updated the historical maximum at 81.7 T. The average hashrate for the period since the previous change in value was 583.92 EH/s.
The #crypto market has corrected 0.46% in the last 24 hours, fluctuating within a narrow range without a clear direction. Bitcoin is down 1% but up 3.7% over seven days, Ethereum is flat for the day but up 10.6% over the week. The top coins are mixed with #BNB +2% and #Solana -2.5%.
#Bitcoin is currently drawing its fourth daily candle with opening and closing levels close to each other. Such sideways consolidations are characteristic of strong bull markets, as opposed to corrective pullbacks on smoother rallies.
#Ethereum hit local highs on rumours of a positive regulatory decision before the end of March. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffarth bet 4 ETH that the SEC will not approve a spot Ethereum ETF next month.
According to data from CoinShares, investment in crypto funds rose by a record $2.452 billion last week, following inflows of $1.116 billion the previous week. Bitcoin investments increased by $2.424 billion, Ethereum by $21 million, #Cardano lost $6 million, and Solana lost $1.6 million.
Since the beginning of the year, crypto funds have seen inflows of an impressive $5.2 billion, with total AUM rising to $67 billion, the highest since December 2021.
#Bitcoin is currently drawing its fourth daily candle with opening and closing levels close to each other. Such sideways consolidations are characteristic of strong bull markets, as opposed to corrective pullbacks on smoother rallies.
#Ethereum hit local highs on rumours of a positive regulatory decision before the end of March. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffarth bet 4 ETH that the SEC will not approve a spot Ethereum ETF next month.
According to data from CoinShares, investment in crypto funds rose by a record $2.452 billion last week, following inflows of $1.116 billion the previous week. Bitcoin investments increased by $2.424 billion, Ethereum by $21 million, #Cardano lost $6 million, and Solana lost $1.6 million.
Since the beginning of the year, crypto funds have seen inflows of an impressive $5.2 billion, with total AUM rising to $67 billion, the highest since December 2021.
The crypto market settles at a $2 trillion cap level, up 0.8% on the day. Altcoins are once again driving growth, while the first coin is flat, losing 0.5% in 24 hours, and Ethereum is up 2.5%. #BNB adds just under 2%, enjoying a resurgence of interest in cryptocurrency trading. #XRP and #Cardano both lose 1%, dragging the market back down.
#Bitcoin and #Ethereum are the cryptocurrencies of choice for institutional speculators. Their obvious trade right now is betting on the approval of spot ETFs on ETH. Speculators are cautiously locking in profits in BTC, which has previously rallied on the same theme.
Remember that Ethereum's market capacity is smaller than Bitcoin's, which has a three times bigger market cap. This means that the price is more sensitive to changes in sentiment. Ethereum has gained 40% in 30 days, the best performance among the top-10 cryptos.
#Bitcoin and #Ethereum are the cryptocurrencies of choice for institutional speculators. Their obvious trade right now is betting on the approval of spot ETFs on ETH. Speculators are cautiously locking in profits in BTC, which has previously rallied on the same theme.
Remember that Ethereum's market capacity is smaller than Bitcoin's, which has a three times bigger market cap. This means that the price is more sensitive to changes in sentiment. Ethereum has gained 40% in 30 days, the best performance among the top-10 cryptos.
The #crypto market lost 4% in 24 hours, falling to a cap of $2.53 trillion. #Bitcoin (-3.7%), #Ethereum (-4.5%) and #BNB (-3.5%) are all down by the same amount. #Solana (-6.4%) and #Doge (-7.9%) are lagging the market, not to mention the systematically weak #Avalanche (-7% for the day and -17% for 7 days) and #Cardano (-4.5% for the day and -19% for 30 days).
A promising consolidation has yet to bear fruit. For Bitcoin, the bullish chart picture has not changed: we see only an extension of the consolidation after the rally from the January lows to mid-March. The next key support area is $62.8-63.0K, where the 50-day moving average and the lows of the corrective pullback in March are centred.
Ethereum has been testing the 50-day MA since the beginning of the day, which actively played the role of support in March. It has been rising steadily since the end of last year, but too much distance from it has caused corrections on more than one occasion.
A promising consolidation has yet to bear fruit. For Bitcoin, the bullish chart picture has not changed: we see only an extension of the consolidation after the rally from the January lows to mid-March. The next key support area is $62.8-63.0K, where the 50-day moving average and the lows of the corrective pullback in March are centred.
Ethereum has been testing the 50-day MA since the beginning of the day, which actively played the role of support in March. It has been rising steadily since the end of last year, but too much distance from it has caused corrections on more than one occasion.
Over the past 24 hours, the #crypto market has lost more than 3.5%, falling to a capitalisation of $2.37 trillion.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
Bitcoin shows a decline with a similar amplitude; Ethereum lost less than 3%, while BNB added 0.1%, and Solana fell by 6.5%.
On Wednesday, #Bitcoin retreated significantly from its 50-day moving average, which we see as an important manifestation of bearish strength. Most crypto traders clearly took this signal.
For example, on the daily charts of #Solana and #Cardano, the rebound over the past ten days now looks like a tactical retreat by the bears, who decided to sell the market again on Wednesday. It is worth keeping a close eye on whether selling can bring the price below the previous local lows, around $125 for Solana and $0.4 for Cardano.
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The medium-term picture also indicates that some old altcoins are having a tough time. In addition to #Ethereum, #Cardano has been consolidating near the lower end of its range in recent months, having already given up more than half of its gains since the lows of October. It pulled back under the 200-day average and formed a "death cross." #Litecoin has also not recovered from the powerful blow in April, testing its 200-day average.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
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#Cardano, whose relative performance is better than its peers, is in a rather vulnerable position in the medium term, testing support for the past two months at $0.43. It is currently trading in the lower half of the range from the October lows, under the 200- and 50-day moving averages. A failure of support potentially opens the way down to $0.38 or even $0.25.
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