#MarketReview

▫️ #Gold bounced off the 50-day MA and held this level during a period of high volatility;

▫️ The direction of the exit from the $2360-$2460 consolidation will determine the future direction;

▫️ The divergence between the price and the RSI on the weekly timeframe points to a bearish scenario;

▫️ Gold has reversed against monetary policy fundamentals twice before.

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#MarketReview #USSPX500 #USNDAQ100 #US30

▫️ US indices rise above 'just a rebound' milestone;

▫️ Dip in the second half of July corrects October rally and clears the way for upside;

▫️ The sentiment index remains in 'extreme fear' territory, boosting the fresh buying;

▫️ Markets are confident of a rate cut, but normalisation of these expectations reduces market shock.

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#MarketReview #CPI #PPI

▫️ US consumer inflation slowed to 2.9%, and producer prices slowed to 2.2% y/y;

▫️ This is below average forecasts but above the Fed's target and does not justify an aggressive rate cut;

▫️ Investors' and the Fed's attention has returned to the labour market, but the dynamics of final demand should not be overlooked.

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#MarketReview

▫️ #Gold is making its third attempt in 30 days to consolidate above $2470;

▫️ $2500 looks like a key near-term upside target.

▫️ The distant bullish target is the $2800-2900 area.

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#MarketReview #WTI

▫️ Oil retreated, failing to return to the area above the 200- and 50-week averages;

▫️ The price decline is happening against a favourable background: prices for risky assets are growing, the dollar is falling;

▫️ Purchases for the strategic reserve continue, drilling activity remains low;

▫️ Movement within the trend suggests a decline to $70 by the end of the month.

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#MarketReview

▫️ The dollar has lost around 4% since the beginning of July and more than 2.3% since its peak in August;

▫️ Pressure comes from expectations of more aggressive Fed rate cuts;

▫️ #DXY has pulled back to key trading range support of the past 20 months;

▫️ Powell's speech has the potential to both turn #USD higher and confirm a path to the downside.

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#MarketReview

▫️ #EURUSD above 1.11 is testing the top of a range from early 2023;

▫️ The pair has broken above the 200-week MA and formed a golden cross, a bullish signal;

▫️ Locally, EURUSD looks overheated and vulnerable to Fed comments and revised employment data.

#MarketReview

▫️ #EURJPY, #USDJPY back in the red, failing to build on a rebound from equity indices;

▫️ The yen is supported by expectations that a quiet market will put a rate hike by the Bank of Japan back on the agenda.

#MarketReview

▫️ The US labour market is in worse shape than previously thought, but the stock market is waiting for the Fed's reaction to see if this is good or bad;

▫️ Weak macro data is bad news for the dollar until a black swan event triggers a flight to safety.

#MarketReview

▫️ Gold is under pressure after updating highs at $2531;

▫️ Divergence between price and RSI on the daily makes us cautious;

▫️ We can only talk about a break of the uptrend with a break below $2380.

#MarketReview

▫️ The Dollar Index closed last week at its lowest level since July 2023, entered oversold territory on the RSI and touched the 200-week average;

▫️ The combination of short-term profit-taking by sellers and the normalisation of Fed expectations sets the stage for a rebound to the 101.7-102.5 area.

#MarketReview

▫️ Nvidia's quarterly report, due after the close of trading on Wednesday, is important to the markets given the company's size and influence in recent quarters;

▫️ The options market is pricing in a 10% price change after the report, but we think the price will continue to move in the same direction;

▫️ In a bullish scenario, the price could rise to $220 from the current $127, while in a bearish scenario, the price could fall to $90.

#MarketReview

▫️ #Gold price has hit a glass ceiling near $2525, but pullbacks are getting shallower;

▫️ The price chart and RSI are forming a bearish divergence.

▫️ Gold's short-term fate is determined by the Fed Funds rate outlook, which will be influenced by the NFP and CPI reports.

#MarketReview

▫️ The dollar index has recovered a quarter of its losses since peaking at the end of July;

▫️ The rally is behind falling odds of a 50bp Fed rate cut in September, but uncertainty may persist until 11 September;

▫️ Further upside targets for DXY are 102.45 and 106.0.

#MarketReview

▫️ Stock market volatility has risen again, with the S&P500 down 2% and the Nasdaq100 down over 3%;

▫️ The #SP500 is consolidating near the 50-day MA, a break below which opens the way to 5150 (-7%);

▫️ The #Nasdaq100 is already below its 50-day MA and technically open to 18200 (-4%).

#MarketReview

▫️ The dollar reversed to the upside on Friday after US employment data reinforced expectations of a 25 rather than 50-point rate cut;

▫️ DXY adds from an area of important support in recent months near the 100 level;

▫️ The same area has been crucial, acting as resistance from 2015 to 2020 and support from 2022.

#MarketReview

▫️ #Brent is testing key support at $70, below which it has not traded consistently since 2021;

▫️ Technically, a break below this level opens a direct path to $40;

▫️ On the other hand, OPEC+ is not sitting idly by, although their attempts to turn the market around are still in vain.

#MarketReview

▫️ The Nasdaq100 made an impressive turnaround from bearish to bullish on Wednesday;

▫️ The technical picture has become promising for the bulls;

▫️ A local test for Nasdaq100 buyers looks to be the 50-day moving average.

#MarketReview

▫️ #Gold has accelerated its advance this week, updating record highs against the euro and the dollar;

▫️ The $2640-2660 area now looks to be the benchmark for gains;

▫️ An unexpected obstacle could be the start of profit-taking from multi-year gains on the Fed rate cut.

#MarketReview

▫️ Influential financial media and experts put the idea of a 50 point Fed rate cut back on the agenda to combat slowing inflation and recession signals.

▫️ Publications and statements from influential speakers drove the dollar lower and the stock market higher, and boosted gold prices.

▫️ Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut are high, but uncertainty remains as to how the Fed will react to current economic data and market sentiment.