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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Coinbase (COIN) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: 173.26

Recommended Entry ✅near 181.90 🔄

► We are selling COIN's rebound attempt after sharp losses over the past two weeks. COIN is currently up around 3.6% and trading near 180.00. Coinbase implemented a 14% workforce reduction, cutting around 700 positions as part of a restructuring plan following a reported $394 million net loss in Q1. At the same time, the leading crypto exchange is expanding its partnership with Standard Chartered to improve multi-currency funding options for institutional clients. COIN also benefited from New Age Alpha Advisors LLC recently taking a position in the stock. Technically, COIN is oversold here and recently benefited somewhat from general buying in risk assets - at least in the stock market - while crypto itself remains weak and faces headwinds from the ongoing rotation into AI / chip stocks.

► We are selling this rebound attempt here and currently see too many headwinds for COIN due to the ongoing significant weakness in the crypto sector.

► Crypto is also facing pressure from higher yields, concerns about rates remaining higher for longer, and weakening demand for crypto ETFs.

► Following the recent gains in risk assets, we also expect some profit taking again in the second half of regular US trading.

🔄 Our Nasdaq 100 and AMD positions (perfect entry) already triggered their TPs ✅📸

Coinbase (COIN): Multiply your usual trade size by ~110 - 130 (11,000%- 13,000%) - 1/2 trade size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26052804A

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⚠️ NYSE ALREADY CLOSED ⚠️


——

COIN was able to rise further while overall risk sentiment remains positive, as the market continues to remain (overly) optimistic that the US and Iran may still find a diplomatic breakthrough in the now three-month-long war. The conflict has weighed on global markets over the last three months, resulted in an undersupplied energy market, and brought back concerns about inflation and rates remaining higher for longer.

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 April 15 - May 28
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: April 15 - May 19
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 116 (excl. 1 open p.)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 109
🔹 Overall REAL Success Rate = 94% 🔼 🏆

Dropped from statistics: 7/7 - 100% 💎 Success Rate (April 14)
Added to statistics: 7/7 - 100% 💎 Success Rate (May 19)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: May 20 - May 28 🔹

❌ 20.5 - UKOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 103.17 me| +re-entry in profit)
✅ 20.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 388.47)
✅ 20.5 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 224.17 me | or 223.87)
✅ 20.5 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 77598.30)
✅ 20.5 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7454.90)

4/5 = 80% Success Rate

✅ 21.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 29193.90)
✴️ 21.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 150.43 🔄
✅ 21.5 - GS - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 971.21 me | or similar)
✴️ 21.5 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 217.87 🔄
✅ 21.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 159.069) 🔄

3/5 - (2 open positions)


——————————————


Our 🔼 success rate rises even further to an astonishing 94%, after our previously still open EUR/JPY position also hit TP ✅ on Tuesday (together with USD/JPY). This leaves only our Hang Seng position still open, which we will carry into next week as well - at least we get positive swaps.

It is to be expected that the US will continue to maintain the narrative that a deal with Iran is within reach. Trump remains under tremendous pressure to find an exit from the conflict as the Midterm Elections move increasingly into focus. This situation - with the US urgently looking for a way out - gives Iran additional leverage in negotiations.

In our five-week statistics, we have lost only 7 (!) trades out of a total of 116 closed trades (with the Hang Seng currently carrying an off-profit TP). Such a success rate is not only virtually impossible to achieve, but it will also be impossible to maintain over the longer term, as it would require winning more than 15 out of every 16 ‼️ trades. This once again highlights just how exceptionally well we have traded over the past weeks - during what has actually been a very challenging market environment.

NVDA has recently come under some pressure as investors rotated more heavily into other chip stocks, but it still offers substantial upside potential. NVDA finished today's session well and is trading clearly above this week's lows. XOM should find some support during Friday's session, although we would have strongly preferred our TP (off-profit; narrowly missed) to have been triggered already today.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 22.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 387.43) 🔄📸
❌ 22.5 - QCOM - SHORT ↘️ (clsd ~238 | +re-entry in profit)
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 29551.60)
✅ 22.5 - US2000 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2862.60 or similar)

3/4 = 75% Success Rate

🔹POST MEMORIAL DAYS 🔹

❌ 25.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34) 🔄
✅ 26.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 50744.90) 📸
✴️ 27.5 - AAPL - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 308.38
✅ 27.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (TP - 413.69) 📸
✅ 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34; re-entry) 🔄 📸
✅ 27.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30103.70) 📸

4/6 - (1 open position)


🔹TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✴️ 28.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (open - slightly off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 159.582 🔄
✴️ 28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - slightly in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.16225 🔄
✅ 28.5 - AMD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 497.26) 📸
✴️ 28.5 - COIN - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 173.26

1/4 - (3 open position)


——————————————


I start with our gold positions 📸, as we should never have closed the Monday position off-profit. We found the perfect entry and the position should have been secured in profit much earlier. That was not good position management on my end - on a day that was packed with meetings.

I am sure many of you already closed that position with a good profit on Monday before the selling pressure kicked in. While we found a very good re-entry 📸 and theoretically closed the overall trade profitably, I am separating the positions here as some of you may have closed the Monday gold trade off-profit. Our Wednesday re-entry, however, was closed today with a very strong profit - although we should even have closed a bit higher (near or slightly above the 4500 level).

As we did not have a regular trading day at the beginning of this week, we count the trades from Monday through Wednesday as one "full" trading session.

Besides that, we achieved good profits overall, although we now need to focus on closing some of our open positions. We are currently positioned a bit too mixed and see a market that is still searching for direction.

We made a spectacular AMD NYSE opening trade 📸 today and could even have bought the sharp dip we expected. AMD rebounded very strongly after our TP was triggered.

We are slightly tightening the TPs ✅ for our two FX positions, although we still believe we found solid entries (against the market). However, if markets remain optimistic that a US-Iran deal could be reached within the next session, the USD may come under some selling pressure. It is, however, likely that uncertainty remains elevated and that we will see more risk-off sentiment return ahead of Friday's market close.

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LONG (BUY) 🔼 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅25030 - 25070

► We see global equity markets trading mostly higher following yet another report of progress in US-Iran negotiations. According to the report, both sides have drafted an extended ceasefire agreement that would also include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the start of formal talks regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. As mentioned over the past days and weeks, the US wants to maintain the narrative that a peace deal is within reach and that it is ultimately up to Trump whether an agreement is signed or not. In the end, Trump will have to decide whether he is willing to accept some Iranian conditions - one of which would likely be allowing Iran (together with Oman) to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and impose transit fees.

► While nothing is certain and the current ceasefire can still only be described as very fragile given the continued military strikes by both sides, in the short term it is more important to trade market expectations than reality itself. The market remains broadly optimistic, which is helping to prevent energy prices from rising again for now and keeping yields away from their recent highs. The Iran conflict continues to be seen as a key factor in determining whether inflation can move lower again later this year - and with it, interest rates.

► We expect a mostly positive first half of Friday trading, with additional upside potential if further signs emerge that both sides are softening their rhetoric and increasingly focusing on an extended ceasefire and progress in peace negotiations.

► We are buying the DAX here, which is trading flat on the day and still well below this week's highs. The sharp and ongoing losses in German pharmaceutical giant Bayer (-4.3%) are weighing on the index. Concerns about a potential full glyphosate ban in Brazil would represent a major blow to Bayer. These concerns intensified after Brazilian lawyers filed a lawsuit against the health agency Anvisa and the government of Rio de Janeiro. It is mainly the losses in a few heavyweight components that are keeping the DAX flat today, including Deutsche Bank (-2.2%) and Siemens Energy (-2.1%).

► We can enter the DAX here while it is still slightly negative on the day (-0.13%, currently around 25070) and expect further gains from these levels around the NYSE opening and during early US trading.

DAX (GER_40): Multiply your "standard (EUR/USD)" trade size by ~2.0–2.5 (200%–250%) – 2/3 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26052901A

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——-

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🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹


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BUY EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔼 Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅381.00 - 382.50
(377.00 - 378.50)

GOOG trades $4.05 below GOOGL

🔹 Apple (-0.15%) – is set to open slightly lower again near 312.00 and therefore roughly around break-even for us. We continue to see a risk-on environment - which, however, is not providing any real additional tailwinds for AAPL as the stock is generally viewed as a more defensive choice. We are tightening our TP here. We expect AAPL to underperform the mega caps and especially the chip / AI stocks over the coming weeks (which does not mean negative performance, but rather relative underperformance), although the long-term outlook for AAPL remains positive.
👉 TP ✅ @: 310.53

🔹 Coinbase (-0.25%) – is trading slightly lower in pre-market trading. We sold yesterday's rebound. However, COIN finished yesterday's session well. With positive risk sentiment during early NYSE trading (+ pre-market), cryptocurrencies are also trading above yesterday's lows, but overall remain disappointingly weak. The fact that crypto has performed so poorly over recent weeks despite the generally positive risk-on environment (albeit with higher yields recently) continues to weigh on sentiment. We are tightening our TP but still expect some profit-taking waves today.
👉 TP ✅ @: 177.56 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

🔹 ExxonMobil (-0.4%) – remains under pressure from lower energy prices but should find some buyers today, especially if there are no additional positive developments regarding the ongoing US-Iran negotiations. We are looking for an exit today - most likely during the second half of the session.
👉 TP ✅ @: 148.43

🔹 Nvidia (+0.35%) – appears to have found a bottom following yesterday's positive close. As we expected, NVDA was able to turn around just below 210 and continues to attract buyers. We are slightly widening our TP again and can remain LONG here. The world's most influential investment bank, JPMorgan, continues to call NVDA a top idea and recommends maintaining an overweight position in the AI GPU leader.
👉 TP ✅ @: 219.23


► We are buying the weaker opening in Alphabet. The stock is set to open around -1.3% lower following critical comments from Truist, which argued that Google Cloud is performing below its potential, while still maintaining a "BUY" rating on Google's parent company - as well as on Amazon (also due to cloud growth potential). The market continues to underestimate the revenue growth potential of cloud services. We see GOOGL trading below 385.00 in pre-market trading (GOOG near 381) and will add after some additional moderate profit taking that could pull GOOGL into the 381.00 - 383.00 range (meaning we are not buying immediately at the opening but rather after a further moderate pullback).

Alphabet (GOOGL): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 75–85x (7,500%–8,500%) – 2/3 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26052902A

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edit - COIN already hit TP

——-

🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤📉3️⃣8️⃣1️⃣📈
(377 GOOG)

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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
EUR/USD
TP ✅ @: 1.16321

DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
TP ✅ @: 25194.90

Alphabet (GOOGL) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 384.49

We are updating some of our positions and are working with slightly tighter TPs.

Please set an in-profit SL for the DAX once / if the DAX reaches 25150. We can, however, remain LONG here. The Hang Seng is fortunately in a strong rebound mode.

—

I am now heading to the airport (as I have some appointments/meeting in Singapore / HK over the coming days and will be in the region for around six weeks in total), but we will continue trading normally at SmartTrader as most appointments will take place early in the day. I will be offline for about 90 minutes now but should be available again for a while from the lounge later. My flight officially comes with Starlink as well - we'll see how well that works.
Robert


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——


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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 April 16 - May 29
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: April 16 - May 20
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 117 (excl. 1 open p.)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 109
🔹 Overall REAL Success Rate = 93.2% 🔽🏆

Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100% 💎 Success Rate (April 15)
Added to statistics: 4/5 - 80% Success Rate (May 20)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: May 21 - May 29 🔹

✅ 21.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 29193.90)
✴️ 21.5 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 148.53 🔄
✅ 21.5 - GS - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 971.21 me | or similar)
✴️ 21.5 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 219.23 🔄
✅ 21.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 159.069)

3/5 - (2 open positions)

✅ 22.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 387.43)
❌ 22.5 - QCOM - SHORT ↘️ (clsd ~238 | +re-entry in profit)
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 29551.60)
✅ 22.5 - US2000 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2862.60 or similar)

3/4 = 75% Success Rate


——————————————


Not much changed from Thursday's update, as my available time on Friday was unfortunately very limited. Starting today and throughout this week, we are fully back again (with no downtime). Our 🔽 success rate remains in the "impossible range" at 93.2%, although it slipped slightly as a flawless 5/5 💎 session (by the way, most of our 25 trading-day sessions are flawless) dropped out of the statistics and was replaced by a 4/5 session (SR = 80%).

We would have preferred to see the XOM position close on Friday. Instead, XOM mostly traded sideways after the opening (currently +0.5% in pre-market trading). NVDA moved close to our TP but then ran into some late-session profit taking.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

🔹POST MEMORIAL DAYS 🔹

❌ 25.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34)
✅ 26.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 50744.90)
✅ 27.5 - AAPL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 310.53) 🔄📸
✅ 27.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (TP - 413.69)
✅ 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34; re-entry)
✅ 27.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30103.70)

5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate

✴️ 28.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 159.582 🔄
✴️ 28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - slightly in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.16321 🔄
✅ 28.5 - AMD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 497.26)
✅ 28.5 - COIN - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 177.56) 🔄📸

1/4 - (2 open positions)


🔹FRIDAY'S TRADES 🔹

✅ 29.5 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 25194.90) 📸
✴️ 29.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 384.49

1/2 - (1 open position)


——————————————


Short session on Friday, but we were able to reduce some of our open positions - with a strong close in COIN 📸 (at the session low), a very good DAX position 📸 (closed near the session highs), and a small profit in AAPL 📸. Overall, our focus was on reducing our somewhat mixed positioning.

We are seeing resilient equity markets at the start of the week, even as oil prices continue to rebound after the US and Iran clashed again over the weekend. Ongoing strong gains in the chip / AI sector are providing support for Wall Street in particular, with NVDA currently trading more than +2% higher in pre-market trading.

The Trump administration continues to try to maintain an overall positive news flow, with Trump in particular remaining under pressure to find an exit from the conflict less than six months before the Midterm Elections.

We are leaving the TPs for our two FX positions unchanged for now. The Hang Seng also performed positively today (+0.6%).

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: 88.16 (89.46 futures contract; Jul'26)
⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

Recommended Entry Range ✅89.25 - 89.55
(+$1.3 futures contract; 90.55 - 90.85)

► We see sharply higher oil prices on Monday after the US and Iran launched another round of strikes against each other over the weekend, while Israel continues to expand its military operations in Lebanon. Since the start of Israel's campaign in Lebanon, including attacks on the capital Beirut, at least 3,370 people have been killed according to the Lebanese Health Ministry (since March).

► At the same time, there are still no clear signs of progress on the key sticking points of a potential interim agreement. These include whether Iran (together with Oman) will be allowed to retain control over shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the handling of frozen Iranian assets, the ongoing war in Lebanon and whether any ceasefire would also include Lebanon, as well as the future of Iran's highly enriched uranium (whether it would be destroyed or potentially transferred to Russia or China).

► Nevertheless, we expect the Trump administration to continue trying to maintain an optimistic narrative and keep talking about progress and a peace deal being just around the corner. However, it is more likely that this process will take significantly longer than the market currently anticipates.

► At the same time, recent import data from Western Europe and China point to a sharp decline in oil demand. China in particular, the world's largest oil importer, recently imported only 10.9 million barrels per day - a level not seen since the pandemic.

► Higher oil prices and limited availability have already contributed to severe demand destruction. China continues to accelerate the expansion of its EV sector, reducing fuel demand, while also investing heavily in alternative technologies and additional electricity generation capacity.

► We continue to expect elevated volatility in oil prices but see some downside potential during today's session, as investors typically remain on the optimistic side at the start of the week.

WTI (USOIL) 🛢: Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 35–50x (350%–500%) – if contract size 10; 2/3 position size
WTI (USOIL) 🛢: Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.35–0.5x (35%–50%) – if contract size 100; 2/3 position size

(Contract size: right-click the asset in MT4/5 -> “Specification”)

position code / 100% Transparency - 26060101A


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——

We made one of the most remarkable oil trade imaginable closing perfectly in our TP at session lows with oil prices than sharply rising on Iran suspending talks (through intermediaries) with the US.

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🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹


🔹 Nasdaq 100 (-0.25%) – has now turned negative after some panic selling in smaller chip stocks (excluding memory-chip companies) that could be affected by Nvidia's expansion into additional chip segments - in this case CPUs. The sharp rebound in oil prices (after our perfect TP ✅ was triggered) is also weighing on risk assets. Overall, we still see further upside potential for the Nasdaq 100 but are tightening our TP slightly.
👉 TP ✅ @: 30469.40 (30469.70 Jun'26 future)
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️


🔹 Alphabet (-1.0%) – is facing some pressure from the NVDA/MSFT partnership, which has triggered rotational flows within the mega-cap sector. In particular, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG/L and even more so AMD, INTC and QCOM are facing short-term headwinds (which can be quite significant for AMD, INTC and QCOM following their recent overgains). We tighten our TP but do not expect it to be triggered today.
👉 TP ✅ @: 382.97

🔹 ExxonMobil (+1.7%) – is benefiting from higher energy prices, although we already saw some profit taking earlier (which allowed our WTI position to hit TP 📸 for a very nice profit). The sharp rebound in oil prices is now providing strong tailwinds for XOM as well. XOM is expected to open above Friday's highs near 147.50. We keep our TP unchanged for now at 148.43.
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️

🔹 Nvidia (+2.3%) – is opening very strongly, benefiting from the launch of new PC chips (in cooperation with Microsoft). NVDA also received another highly positive analyst call. Investment bank DA Davidson added NVDA to its best-of-breed list and continues to see substantial upside for the chip giant. We do not want to become overly optimistic on NVDA, but we are widening the TP again.
👉 TP ✅ @: 221.47
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️

(🔹 Coinbase (-5.9%) – crashed in pre-market trading as investors continue rotating into AI and chip stocks, weighing particularly on cryptocurrencies. The rebound in energy prices also acted as a headwind for risk assets, including crypto. Some of you may still be holding SHORT positions here. If you still have an open position, you can close today in profit - TP ✅ @: 178.47 🔄 The stock opened well below that TP and would have even triggered TP ✅ @: 177.56 - this time with certainty.)
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️


► News that Iran is suspending negotiations for now - in response to Israel's continued military push in Lebanon - has driven oil prices sharply higher and weighed on risk assets. We are currently seeing very chaotic price swings and elevated volatility following the Iran headlines. We will first analyze early NYSE trading and may look to buy some of the sharper dips.

► Both of our FX positions (EUR/USD; USD/JPY) reached their TPs ✅📸 as higher energy prices continue to provide strong support for the USD.


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——


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: near/above 30430 (30450 for Jun'26 future)
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️📸

ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 148.97
⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED (off profit) ⚠️📸

Very strong gains in NVDA (as we expected, supported by additional buying after the opening) helped the Nasdaq 100 recover from earlier losses. However, the situation surrounding reports from Iran's state-affiliated news agency Tasnim remains a headwind. According to the report, Iran is no longer exchanging messages with the US through intermediaries and is instead considering a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to ongoing ceasefire violations.

We are closing here with a small profit.

We can also widen the TP for our XOM position slightly. Significantly higher energy prices are providing a strong tailwind for the energy sector.


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 GBP/USD
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅1.34600 - 1.34700

► Ongoing optimistic statements from Trump - even after telling CNBC, "I really don't care. I couldn't care less" (while in reality he is clearly making significant efforts to keep negotiations alive) - helped limit gains in oil prices and brought some easing after prices had surged more than +8% earlier today. Iran had previously announced that it was suspending negotiations and the exchange of documents through intermediaries in protest over Israel's military campaign in Lebanon.

► A clear sign of how strongly Trump wants Iran to remain engaged in negotiations are his discussions with Netanyahu, where he reportedly tried to convince Israel not to further expand military operations in Lebanon - particularly towards Beirut. Trump also posted on social media that he had discussions with Hezbollah representatives regarding a potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

► We see GBP/USD trading essentially flat today and even slightly higher, but continue to expect the USD to remain supported as current negotiations show clear signs of becoming stalled and potentially collapsing.

► We also see US Treasury yields edging slightly higher (although UK gilt yields also moved up). While energy prices have cooled somewhat from today's highs, WTI is still trading nearly +6% higher (Brent around +4.5%).

► We continue to see further near-term upside potential for the USD. EUR/USD could also be sold again in the 1.16330 - 1.16370 range. USD/JPY remains bullish as well but is already approaching levels where the Bank of Japan may start considering additional intervention measures. Therefore, we prefer GBP/USD here as we see greater near-term downside potential in terms of pips than in EUR/USD.

► The GBP also benefited today as a risk-sensitive currency from continued strength in equity markets

position code / 100% Transparency - 26060104A


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We haven't lost a single FX trade since more than a month including:

ALL FX trades since May 1st:

✅ 01.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 05.05 - USD/JPY - SHORT ↘️
✅ 06.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 08.05 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 11.05 - EUR/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 15.05 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 18.05 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️
✅ 19.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 21.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 28.05 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
✅ 28.05 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️

12/12 = 100% Success Rate

🆕 01.06 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 April 17 - June 01
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


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📊 5 - Week -Performance: April 17 - May 21
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 117 (excl. 1 open p.)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 109
🔹 Overall REAL Success Rate = 93.2% 🏆

Dropped from statistics: 4/5 - 80% Success Rate (April 16)
Added to statistics: 4/5 - 80% Success Rate (May 21)


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🔹 The last 5 trading days: May 22 - June 01 🔹

✅ 22.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 387.43)
❌ 22.5 - QCOM - SHORT ↘️ (clsd ~238 | +re-entry in profit)
✅ 22.5 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 29551.60)
✅ 22.5 - US2000 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 2862.60 or similar)

3/4 = 75% Success Rate

🔹POST MEMORIAL DAYS 🔹

❌ 25.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34)
✅ 26.5 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 50744.90)
✅ 27.5 - AAPL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 310.53)
✅ 27.5 - MSFT - LONG ↗️ (TP - 413.69)
✅ 27.5 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4480.34; re-entry)
✅ 27.5 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30103.70)

5/6 = 83.3% Success Rate


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Our 🟡 success rate remains unchanged, as a 4/5 session (SR = 80%) dropped out of our 25-trading-day statistics and was replaced by another 4/5 session (SR = 80%).

There is not much else to update here, as we did not carry any open positions from the days shown above. However, we closed our NVDA position from May 21 (including re-entries) at TP and also closed our XOM position (also from May 21) - although off-profit. This allowed us to further reduce the number of open positions, particularly on the equity side.

Our still-open Hang Seng position closed +0.5% higher during regular Hong Kong trading and continued to advance in after-hours trading. We also continue to benefit from positive swap payments on the Hang Seng position.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 28.5 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 159.582) 🔄📸
✅ 28.5 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.16321) 🔄📸
✅ 28.5 - AMD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 497.26)
✅ 28.5 - COIN - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 177.56)

4/4 = 100% 💎 Success Rate

✅ 29.5 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 25194.90)
✴️ 29.5 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 382.97 🔄

1/2 - (1 open position)


🔹TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✅ 1.6 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 88.16) 📸
✅ 1.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (clsd above 30430) 📸
✴️ 1.6 - XAG/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 74.11 🔄
✴️ 1.6 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.34167



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We didn't want to overtrade today's market and can overall be very satisfied with both our completed and open trades, and even more with our overall position management amid the currently quite volatile market swings.

Our WTI position 📸 was helped somewhat by timing, but we also worked with a perfect TP. We closed the Nasdaq 100 📸 with solid profits. While there was ultimately more upside available, the risks of short-term profit taking remain elevated, especially as there is still a risk of near-term market disappointment as long as negotiations between the US and Iran remain complicated.

On the equity side, we also closed both our NVDA 📸 and XOM 📸 positions.

We are tightening the TP ✅ on our silver position slightly.