🇬🇧 SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
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Independent market research using in-depth fundamental & sentiment analysis for active traders. Fully transparent.

Educational content - not personalised financial advice; Past performance is not a guarantee

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Silver (XAG/USD)🥈
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 position size
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 60.12

► We are already SHORT in gold, but we are increasing our position by trading against the current rebound in precious metals and expect to see further profit taking.

► Silver is likely to come under renewed selling pressure after breaking back below the $60 per ounce level.

► We are trading only a small position here, as silver remains highly volatile and continues to have a strong correlation with gold.

► Despite lower oil prices, we continue to see elevated bond yields (which could rise a bit further ahead of tomorrow's NFP report) as well as a stronger US dollar - both of which are creating additional headwinds for silver.

Silver (XAG/USD):

Multiply your usual “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 5.0–6.0 (600%–750%) – 1/2 position size, for contract size 100

Multiply your usual “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.5–0.6 (60%–75%) – 1/2 position size, for contract size 1000

Multiply your usual “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.10–0.12 (10%–12%) – 1/2 position size, for contract size 5000

You can see the contract size of your broker when you right click on the asset and click on "specification" (MetaTrader).


position code / 100% Transparency - 26060505A


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Great silver trade here with selling a bit accelerating again after silver fell broke the $60/oz 📉 to the downside.


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🇬🇧 SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯 SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Silver (XAG/USD)🥈 ⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 position size TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎) Recommended Entry ✅near/above 60.12 ► We are already SHORT in gold, but we are increasing our position by trading against the current rebound…
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
SL 🔑 @: 4077.73 (pot. only for re-entry if you have)
TP ✅ @: 4031.61

Silver (XAG/USD)🥈
SL 🔑 @: 59.961
TP
✅ @: 59.316

We are updating our gold and silver positions here and moving / set our SLs 🔑 into profit. I have only set the SL for my gold re-entry. Overall, we continue to expect further downside - particularly during Asian trading.

Good entries - especially our gold re-entry, as well as our expectation that silver would break below the $60/oz level and subsequently come under significantly stronger selling pressure.


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Both gold and silver fell already significantly further 📉

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 May 18 - July 01
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: May 18 - June 24
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 132 (+2 open p. - NVDIA & USD/JPY)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 106
🔹 Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 80.3% 🔽

Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy (May 15)
Added to statistics: 3/4 - 75%
Signal Accuracy (June 24)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: June 25 - July 01 🔹

✅ 25.6 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 70.46 |or 69.70)
✅ 25.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52378.90)
✅ 25.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 340.49)
✅ 25.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 341.44 me | or 339.99)
✅ 25.6 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7399.70)
✅ 25.6 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP -7423.30)
✅ 25.6 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 7401.80)

7/7 = 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy

✅ 26.6 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24733.90)
✴️ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 413.18 🔄
(🟡 26.6 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (127.56 me | or similar))
*
✅ 26.6 - BA - LONG ↗️ (TP 218.67| overall - in-profit)
✅ 26.6 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24761.90)

3/4 - (1 open position)
*excl. INTC, as some members may have closed position break-even only.


——————————————


Our 🔽 success rate slipped slightly after one of the many flawless May sessions (4/4; 💎 SA/SR = 100%) dropped out of the statistics and was replaced by last Wednesday's 3/4 session (SA/SR = 75%). As a result, we now have one additional losing trade within our five-week statistics.

NVDA (-1.25%) gave back part of this week's strong gains but still closed well above its session lows. USD/JPY saw a notable decline today, particularly following comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which we did not view as especially hawkish, as well as the private payrolls report, which for now did not paint the picture of an overheating US labor market (with tomorrow's NFP report being the more important release). We are tightening our TP a bit further:
👉 USD/JPY | TP
✅ @: 162.226

TSLA continued to move higher but closed well below its session highs. We expect some profit taking tomorrow and will look for an exit.
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 29.6 - US2000 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 3017.80)
✅ 29.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 349.69)
✅ 29.6 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1088.89)
✅ 29.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 4029.79 me| overall in profit | or 4007.28+)
✅ 29.6 - XOM - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 135.33)

5/5 = 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy

✅ 30.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 29996.70 me | or 29946.40)
✅ 30.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 354.47)
✅ 30.6 - CAC_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8419.30)
✅ 30.6 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 58353.90) 🔄📸
✅ 30.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52476.30) 📸

5/5 = 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy


🔹TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✴️ 1.7 - CAC_40 - LONG ↗️ (open - near break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 8356.40 🔄
✅ 1.7 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 4031.61 | +re-entry) 📸
✴️ 1.7 - MU - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1117.37
✴️ 1.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 30089.90 (30304.30 future) 🔄
✴️ 1.7 - TSM - LONG ↗️ (open - near break-even)
👉 TP ✅ @: 459.23
✅ 1.7 - XAG/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 59.316) 📸

2/6 - (4 open positions)

——————————————


It has been a good trading week so far. We were a bit too cautious on BTC 📸, as the position would have easily reached our TP today. Nevertheless, the in-profit SL and the triggered TP on the Dow Jones 📸 mean that we also closed all of yesterday's positions in profit (5/5; 💎 SA/SR = 100%).

Our precious metals (gold 📸/ silver 📸) positions hit their TPs, resulting in a very nice profit.

We are tightening the TPs
✅ for our CAC 40 📸 and Nasdaq 📸 slightly.

Today, we cautiously bought the sharp sell-off in the semiconductor sector. We may initially see another mixed and volatile session tomorrow, but we expect semiconductor stocks to rebound no later than next week. That said, US equities could already receive some support tomorrow if the NFP report confirms a robust, but not overheating, US labor market. Overall, however, we expect the market to remain cautious - mainly because of the extended weekend, as US markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.
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Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)

🔸 🇦🇺 Balance of Trade MAY – 01:30 (reported: 🔴)
🔸 🇪🇸 Unemployment Change JUN – 07:00 (reported: 🟢)
🔸 🇮🇹 Unemployment Rate MAY – 08:00 (reported: 🟢)
🔸 🇪🇺 Unemployment Rate MAY – 09:00 (reported: 🟢)
♦️ 🇺🇸 Non Farm Payrolls JUN – 12:30
♦️ 🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate JUN – 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings JUN (MoM/YoY) – 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims JUN/27 – 12:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Participation Rate JUN – 12:30
🔸 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN – 13:30
🔸 🇺🇸 Factory Orders MoM MAY – 14:00

🔸 = Event of medium/high importance
♦️ = Event of very high importance
🔴 = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟡 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟢 = Data better than analysts' expectations


---

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

No major earnings reports today

---

SmartTrader™ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
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LONG (BUY)🔼 Dow Jones (US30)
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅52450 - 52500

📌 DJI future Sep'26 ~250 points higher

► All eyes are on today's NFP report. After three consecutive months of surprisingly strong NFP data, I expect to see some cooling. Analysts expect payrolls to increase by 110K, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, and annual wage inflation, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, to edge up slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%. I actually think it is somewhat more likely that the figure will come in slightly below the expected 110K - although, as always, this is extremely difficult to predict and can be influenced by a number of factors. On the other hand, the ongoing FIFA World Cup may also have resulted in some temporary hiring during June.

► We almost saw another circuit breaker in South Korea today, with the Kospi plunging 7.8%. Once again, semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix were the main drivers following yesterday's sharp correction in chip stocks in New York.

► Aside from that, however, markets were generally positive. European equities moved sharply higher, including the CAC 40, where our position hit TP. At the same time, we saw a strong intervention by the Bank of Japan, causing USD/JPY to plunge sharply. It was a clever move by the BoJ to intervene just ahead of the NFP report, as it could result in less yen selling even if the labor market data comes in strong, with traders now increasingly concerned about further BoJ intervention. We had expected an intervention, although a bit earlier. Our USD/JPY position hit TP before falling significantly further.

► Overall, we view the ongoing rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into other sectors as healthy, as the concentration of capital in chip stocks compared with the rest of the market has reached extreme levels.

► Oil prices have now fully returned to their pre-war levels, providing an additional boost to market sentiment - particularly in Europe. We already traded the Dow Jones yesterday, expecting it to benefit from this rotation, and we continue to see further upside potential here.

► A very strong NFP report would be a headwind for equities, but it should weigh less on the Dow Jones than on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, or Russell 2000. We expect a report that confirms a resilient, but not overheating, US labor market, with the headline payroll figure potentially coming in slightly below the expected 110K.

Dow Jones (US30): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 1.25–1.75x (125%–175%)


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070201A


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🇬🇧 SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯 LONG (BUY) 🔼 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸 ⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎) Recommended Entry Range ✅29930 - 29980 (30145 -30195 future) 📌 Nasdaq future (Sep'26) ~215 points higher Sep'26 futures contract! 🔰 FREE…
⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 30193.40

We widen the TP for our Nasdaq 100 before the NFP report is coming out. A slight cooling in hiring would be a positive for tech / growth stocks.

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🚀 Trade of the Day 🚀

✅ 01.07 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (Re-entry)

Average movement in our favor: +0.92% 📈

❗️You could have increased your capital by: +6.03% 📈❗️

Example:
↗️ Initial Capital: $5,000 —> +$301.70 Profit with just this Trade (+6.03%🚀)


🥇 Last 5 closed Gold & Silver trades
✅ 18.06 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
❌ 18.06 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 29.06 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 01.07 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (Re-entry)
✅ 01.07 - XAG/USD - SHORT ↘️

❓ The possible profit and return was calculated using the “balanced standard lot size”.
Used Multiplier for this calculation: 0.11
(Multiplier Range: 0.10 - 0.12
3/5 position size

🖥 Calculate your appropriate trade size using the SmartTrader Lot Size Calculator

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LONG (BUY) 🔼 USD/JPY
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range
✅160.560 - 160.680

► We were quite unlucky with our USD/JPY SHORT, as we had expected a stronger Bank of Japan intervention to come earlier. Instead, the BoJ decided to intervene just ahead of the NFP report - a smart move, as traders are now much more hesitant to bet against the yen when looking to go LONG the US dollar. Most traders had no longer expected a significant intervention. While our assessment ultimately proved correct, the Bank of Japan waited much longer than we had anticipated.

► The NFP report came in noticeably weaker than analysts had expected. We, on the other hand, had anticipated a somewhat softer reading. As a result, the US dollar is now facing significant short-term headwinds, as expectations for further rate hikes have declined. Another rate hike would increase the risk of further weakening in the labor market.

► At the same time, we continue to see oil prices moving lower, which further reduces inflationary pressure.

► Nevertheless, despite the current weakness in the US dollar, we remain bullish - not bearish - on the USD/JPY outlook. The risk of further intervention remains, but we are buying the current weakness. Alternatively, we also like a EUR/USD SHORT in the 🔽 1.14650 - 1.14800 range.

► Although the US dollar initially weakened, we do not believe that two softer labor market reports (yesterday's ADP and today's NFP) will be enough to keep the greenback under sustained pressure over the coming trading sessions.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26070202A


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 EUR/USD
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅1.14530 - 1.14590

► We expect our USD/JPY position to hit TP shortly (although we could still widen it slightly: TP ✅ @: 161.093). ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

► We continue to view the current weakness in the US dollar as temporary and somewhat overdone. While the NFP report came in weaker than analysts had expected (though not weaker than we expected, as we had already anticipated a figure below the expected 110K), the data certainly does not point to a weak US labor market. Especially not with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, even though this was partly driven by a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate.

► At the same time, the market still expects further rate hikes - if not in July, then in September. I believe the latest data rather gives the Fed room to wait and see, particularly now that oil prices have fallen sharply and returned to pre-war levels.

► We identified the perfect entry range for EUR/USD, but still see further downside from current levels. Overall, we want to buy the current oversold weakness in the US dollar. We also believe gold has risen a bit too much.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070203A


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🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹


🔹 Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) - is benefiting from weaker-than-expected NFP data. However, we believe the market is a bit too optimistic here. While both the ADP and NFP reports suggest that the US labor market is not quite as strong as previously expected, they do not indicate any clear signs of cooling. Overall, we still see a very robust labor market. Combined with sharply lower oil prices and softer European inflation data, expectations for further Fed rate hikes have eased somewhat. Nevertheless, we are tightening our TP once again, even though we expect some additional gains in early / today's NYSE trading.
👉 TP
✅ @: 30123.40 (30337.90 future)
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED BUT LOWER ⚠️

🔹 Dow Jones (+0.5%) - continues to perform very well and still has further upside potential from here. The Dow is also benefiting from the NFP data, particularly its financial stocks. We are tightening our TP slightly and can set an in-profit SL once the Dow reaches the 52650 level (52900 for the future).
👉 TP
✅ @: 52744.90 (52994.90 future)
⚠️ TP TRIGGERED ⚠️

🔹 Micron (+1.3%) - is opening well but still needs to move a bit higher for us to close the position in profit. We are tightening our TP. There remains a risk of further profit taking, particularly following the sharp losses in competitors Samsung and SK Hynix.
👉 TP
✅ @: 1083.90

🔹 NVDA (0.0%) - is opening little changed but continues to have upside potential over the coming trading sessions, next week, and throughout July. We can remain LONG.

🔹 Tesla (+0.5%) - continues to be a headache in our portfolio as TSLA remains in a strong uptrend. While we expect (significant) profit taking to return over the coming sessions, we want to find an exit here. Tesla beat Q2 delivery expectations, although that was largely anticipated by the market.
👉 TP
✅ @: 422.23 ⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED BUT LOWER ⚠️

🔹 TSMC (+1.8%) - is making a strong rebound attempt. Yesterday, we tried what seemed almost impossible by catching the falling knife - and we did a good job. TSM is already opening well in profit for us. We are setting an in-profit SL and tightening our TP slightly.
👉 SL 🔑 @: 447.97 | TP
✅ @: 457.87
⚠️ SL TRIGGERED ⚠️


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸
TP
✅ @: 418.56
OR
CLOSE SOON ✅ @: 416 - 419
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED ⚠️📸

Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
TP
✅ @: 30048.90
⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸

We are now seeing the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction in TSLA following its recent sentiment-driven rally, which had become somewhat overextended. Analysts were expecting strong delivery numbers - and they did indeed come in above expectations - but there was nothing particularly extraordinary about the results. We can widen our TP here slightly once again. At the same time, we are tightening the TP for our Nasdaq 100 a bit further. We are leaving the TP for the Dow unchanged, as we expect the Dow to perform well and outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq during the early NYSE session.

TSM hit my in-profit SL shortly after the opening (in profit):

We can remain LONG TSMC and re-enter near the SL.


🔰 RAPID VIP SIGNAL 🕯
LONG (BUY) 🔼 TSMC (TSM) 🇹🇼(🇺🇸)
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: 458.79 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸

Recommended Entry Range ✅447.00 - 448.50

► While we are seeing another round of profit taking in the semiconductor sector, we continue to view TSM as very attractive. Although buying this dip remains both high risk and extremely difficult, we want to go LONG TSM again and would potentially carry the position into next week. We continue to see TSMC as one of the most attractive semiconductor stocks, with a valuation that remains very reasonable.

► We believe the current sell-off in TSM is largely unjustified. In our view, TSM remains an exceptionally strong long-term investment - such as for 2026 and beyond.

TSMC (TSM): Multiply your your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 45 - 55 (4.500% - 5.500%) - 1/2 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070204A



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Great updating / spectacular TSM re-entry (already triggered TP 📸).

TSLA hurts and should have been closed much lower - if you are still SHORT (you can close much better below 400).

Check our Fully Transparent Trading Report from MAY 👈
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LONG (BUY) 🔼 TSMC (TSM) 🇹🇼(🇺🇸)
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅429.50 - 432.50 🔄


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LONG (BUY) 🔼 Micron (MU) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility & Risk; 2/5 position size;
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅952 - 957 🔄

► Our TSM re-entry already hit our very well placed TP ✅ before falling back to new session lows. Nevertheless, we continue to see TSM well positioned for a significant rebound next week, even though the ongoing rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into other sectors continues to create selling pressure.

► We are seeing generally cautious trading as we head into the extended weekend (with Wall Street closed tomorrow), while the elevated volatility is adding further uncertainty. Unfortunately, many traders aggressively went LONG immediately after the NFP release, only to get caught in the current correction.

► The semiconductor sector remains under pressure. MU has now fallen well below the $1,000 level. While we expected increasing support in this area, rotational selling, portfolio rebalancing, and panic selling are currently dominating. The selling pressure may therefore persist in the short term, and we could still see some additional weakness. Nevertheless, we can make a small re-entry well below 980 (MU). In particular, well below 🔼 980.00 we expect dip buyers to become increasingly active.

► The Nasdaq 100 is also becoming attractive again at these levels. We adjusted our TP ✅ very well and the Nasdaq 100 is now trading around 600 (!) points (which is a very significant move) below our triggered TP. An entry near/below 🔼 29450 (+215 points for the future) looks attractive. We will continue to monitor the situation closely, but also want to avoid becoming overexposed.

TSMC (TSM): Multiply your your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 45 - 55 (4.500% - 5.500%) - 1/2 position size

Micron (MU): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 10–15x (1,000%–1,500%) – 2/5 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070205A

position code / 100% Transparency - 26070103B


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The rotation out of chip stocks continued 📉 during the second half of US trading ahead of the extended weekend. While selling pressure remains elevated, we can cautiously buy these sharp dips.


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 3/5 position size
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅4119 - 4126

► We are seeing typical cautious trading ahead of the weekend - especially given the extended weekend, with US markets closed tomorrow due to Independence Day.

► In addition, yesterday's rotation out of the semiconductor highflyers continued today. This kept volatility elevated and created additional caution among market participants.

► Short-dated government bonds moved higher after the weaker-than-expected increase in US employment reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes somewhat. The USD gave back part of its recent strong gains, while precious metals rallied sharply.

► We expect some cooling from these levels and could even have entered a bit earlier here. At the same time, we are already seeing bond yields rise again, with the 10-year US Treasury yield also turning slightly "positive" again.

► Silver is still trading around +3% higher, while gold is currently up around +2.2% and is trading near the 4120 level. We expect some cooling from here. Gold previously found support at the important 4100 level. We expect this level to be tested again later / eventually broken below.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.10–0.12x (10%–12%) – 3/5 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070206A

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LONG (BUY) 🔼 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅near/below 29150
(29365 future)

📌 Nasdaq future (Sep'26) ~215 points higher
Sep'26 futures contract!

► We are seeing very strong global equity markets following the NFP report. The Dow Jones also reached a new all-time high - we even closed our LONG a bit too early, but we saw exactly the significant outperformance (vs. the Nasdaq) that we had anticipated.

► Overall, investors reacted positively to the weaker-than-expected June NFP report, while yesterday's rotation out of semiconductor stocks continued to intensify, already during Asian trading. Importantly, capital is not leaving the equity market, but is merely rotating out of chip stocks and into other sectors.

► The combination of a slightly weaker-than-expected US labor market and further declines in oil prices is removing some inflationary pressure from the market and could be enough for the Fed to remain in wait-and-see mode for longer. In Europe, inflation has already cooled again, reducing expectations for another ECB rate hike.

► The sell-off in semiconductor stocks has now gone very far. Overall, however, we consider today's rotation to be healthy. The NFP report was close to ideal, as it neither pointed to worrying weakness in the labor market (especially after three very strong reports) nor suggested that the US labor market is overheating.

► We are buying the sharp dip of more than 2% in the Nasdaq 100 here with a small position and will likely carry it into next week. We may see a modest recovery tomorrow, but with US markets closed for the holiday, market moves should remain limited. Additional weakness in Korean and Japanese chip stocks could weigh somewhat further in the short term. Overall, however, risk sentiment has not deteriorated - it has actually improved as concerns about higher rates for longer have eased.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 1.0-1.5x (100%-150%) - 1/2 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070207A


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
TP ✅ @: 4110.56 🔄

Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
SL 🔑 @: 29214.90
TP
✅ @: 29434.90

TSMC (TSM) 🇹🇼(🇺🇸)
TP ✅ @: 448.43

Micron (MU) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 1027.97

Impressive timing from us on the Nasdaq 100 - we can already work with an in-profit SL 🔑. While not strictly necessary, we can tighten the TPs ✅ for our two semiconductor positions a bit. For gold, we are now working with a tight TP, as we continue to see it hovering around the 4120 level - although with further downside potential during Asian trading.

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 May 19 - July 02
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


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📊 5 - Week -Performance: May 19 - June 25
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 134 (+1 open p. - NVDIA)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 107
🔹 Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 79.9% 🔽

Dropped from statistics: 6/6 - 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy (May 18)
Added to statistics: 7/7 - 100%
💎 Signal Accuracy (June 25)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: June 26 - July 02 🔹

✅ 26.6 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24733.90)
❌ 26.6 - TSLA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 416.26 me or similar) 🔄
(🟡 26.6 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (127.56 me | or similar))
*
✅ 26.6 - BA - LONG ↗️ (TP 218.67| overall - in-profit)
✅ 26.6 - DAX_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24761.90)

3/4 = 75% Signal Accuracy
*excl. INTC, as some members may have closed position break-even only.

✅ 29.6 - US2000 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 3017.80)
✅ 29.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 349.69)
✅ 29.6 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1088.89)
✅ 29.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP- 4029.79 me| overall in profit | or 4007.28+)
✅ 29.6 - XOM - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 135.33)

5/5 = 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy


——————————————



Hard to believe that our 🔽 success rate was unable to improve, even though our flawless 7/7 session 💎 (SA/SR = 100%) from last Thursday has now entered our five-week statistics. However, at the same time, another one of the many perfect May sessions (6/6; 💎 SA/SR = 100%) dropped out of the statistics. In addition, we ultimately closed our USD/JPY position off-profit after tightening our TP a bit too much - and this happened just before the Bank of Japan intervention we had been waiting for. Really unfortunate timing.

Our success rate remains very strong, but for the first time in almost a year it has slipped slightly below the 80% mark.

A similar story unfolded with our TSLA position today. Tesla posted strong, sentiment-driven gains over the past sessions but then sold off sharply following the delivery report today (at one point swinging by as much as 8.5%). While Q2 deliveries did come in above analysts' expectations, TSLA's valuation remains extremely elevated.
A stronger delivery report was already priced in we thus also saw a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect. Tesla also benefited over the past few days from the "Musk effect", as excitement surrounding the supposedly upcoming Optimus robots, along with speculation about a potential mega merger between SpaceX and Tesla (which would not necessarily be positive), continued to fuel investor enthusiasm. Alternatively we could have closed TSLA earlier in a SL (which many of you did), but we expected a sharp correction which ultimately only came post delivery report.

Otherwise, there are no additional updates. NVDA gave back another portion of this week's gains today as the rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into other sectors continued. Nevertheless, we continue to see further upside potential for NVDA over the coming trading sessions and into next week.
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🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 30.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 29996.70 me | or 29946.40)
✅ 30.6 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 354.47)
✅ 30.6 - CAC_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8419.30)
✅ 30.6 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (SL - 58353.90)
✅ 30.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52476.30)

5/5 = 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy

✅ 1.7 - CAC_40 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 8356.40) 🔄📸
✅ 1.7 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 4031.61 | +re-entry)
✴️ 1.7 - MU - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry in profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1027.97 🔄
✅ 1.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30048.90) 🔄📸
✅ 1.7 - TSM - LONG ↗️ (SL - 447.97) 🔄📸
✅ 1.7 - XAG/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 59.316)

5/6 - (1 open position)


🔹TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✅ 2.7 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52744.90) 📸
✅
2.7 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 161.063) 📸
✴️ 2.7 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - in-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.14205
✅ 2.7 - TSM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 458.79) 📸
✴️
2.7 - TSM - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 448.43
✴️
2.7 - XAU/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 4110.56
✅✴️
2.7 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - SL-in-profit)
👉 SL 🔑 @: 29264.40 🔄 | TP ✅ @: 29453.70 🔄

4/7 - (4 open positions)


——————————————


So far, it has been a very good trading week (and US markets will remain closed tomorrow). Despite a very challenging market environment, we have not closed a single trade from this week at a loss while at the same time making sure not to build up too much exposure - even though we entered numerous contrarian trades, including buying the sharp dips in the semiconductor sector. TSLA hurts here of course and should have been closed much better.

We closed additional positions from previous sessions, including our CAC 40 📸 (a bit early), our Nasdaq 📸, and TSM 📸 (via the in-profit SL 🔑 before re-entering at a very favorable level).

We expected today's NFP report to come in weaker than analysts had forecast - and we were absolutely right. We could certainly have traded our (correct) outlook more aggressively, for example with a LONG position in gold. Ultimately, however, we decided to react to the data instead (in addition to our Dow Jones LONG 📸, which we had already opened before the NFP report and which also reached its TP).

We made a spectacular TSM re-entry trade 📸 and remain LONG the Taiwanese semiconductor giant (as well as MU, although it declined further today after our entry) after buying another even sharper dip. We are also updating the SL 🔑 (tighter) and TP
✅ (wider) for our Nasdaq 100 position, which is already well in profit.
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LONG (BUY) 🔼 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 3/5 position size
TP
✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅29650 - 29670
(29865 -29885 future)

📌 Nasdaq future (Sep'26) ~215 points higher
Sep'26 futures contract!

► We should have worked with an even wider TP on our Nasdaq. Our TP ✅📸 was already triggered during early Asian trading after semiconductor stocks in South Korea surged once again. The South Korean chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix turned the Kospi into another rollercoaster session today.

► Samsung Electronics climbed 8.2%, supported in part by media reports that Anthropic PBC is in talks with the South Korean company to partner on the production of a custom AI chip. Memory giant SK Hynix jumped an impressive 10.9%. The strong gains in both companies helped the Kospi rally 5.76% today after Thursday's 7.89% plunge (coming close to triggering another circuit breaker). On Thursday, Samsung had fallen 9%, while SK Hynix had dropped as much as 15%.

► A similar rollercoaster was also visible on Wall Street, where US semiconductor stocks experienced equally dramatic swings. We bought the sharp dips (TSM 🇹🇼, MU, while remaining LONG NVDA). We achieved almost the impossible by buying the Nasdaq very close to the absolute session low and could easily have captured another 200 points of profit.

► We continue to see further upside from here. Global equity markets also benefited from the weaker-than-expected NFP report, which eased concerns that the Fed could return to another rate-hiking cycle.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 1.5-2.0x (150%-200%) - 3/5 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26070301A


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