πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
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Independent market research using in-depth fundamental & sentiment analysis for active traders. Fully transparent.

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πŸ”Ή FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days πŸ”Ή

πŸ—“ August 07 - September 25
πŸ’― Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


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πŸ“Š 5 - Week -Performance: August 07 - September 11
(= 25 full trading days)

πŸ”Ή Number of Trades/Signals: 134
πŸ”Ή Number of Trades Won: 125
πŸ”Ή Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 93.3% πŸ”Ό πŸ†

Dropped from statistics: 4/5 - 80% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (August 06)
Added to statistics: 6/6 - 100%
πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (September 11)


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πŸ”Ή The last 5 trading days: September 14 - September 25 πŸ”Ή

βœ… 14.9 - GBR_100 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 10707.60)
βœ… 14.9 - SPX500 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 7609.30)
❌ 14.9 - META - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 748.61) πŸ”„
βœ… 14.9 - DELL - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 530.11)
βœ… 14.9 - US30 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 52371.60)
βœ… 14.9 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 167.49 me |or 167.08)
βœ… 14.9 - DAX_40 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 25451.60)

6/7 = 85.7% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)

βœ… 22.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4332.23) 5️⃣1️⃣
βœ… 22.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4367.39) 5️⃣2️⃣
βœ… 22.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 228.79)
βœ… 22.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30638.90)
βœ… 22.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52022.40)
βœ… 22.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 51794.90 + overall in profit) πŸ”„

6/6 = 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)


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Apologies for the late update. It was a busy weekend.

What an update (!)
Our already exceptional πŸ”Ό Signal Accuracy / Success Rate has increased even further (!) after one of the few non-perfect sessions dropped out of our five-week statistics and was replaced by our flawless September 11 session (6/6; πŸ’Ž SA/SR = 100%).

Our longer-term Success Rate now stands at an incredible 93.3% πŸ†. Across 25 full trading days, we lost only 9 (!) out of a total of 134 positions.


β€”


At this point, I would once again like to congratulate everyone who has been part of this journey. For many of you, the past few months have been a journey of massive profits - many of you have managed to grow your account balances into five-figure amounts. Once again, my request: If possible, please also share a portion of your profits with people in need ❀️

Our five-week statistics have now remained consistently above 90% πŸ† for more than three months.
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πŸ”Ή OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days πŸ”Ή

βŒβœ… 23.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30547.30 | overall off-profit | re-entry in profit)
βœ… 23.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4302.29| overall in-profit)πŸ”„πŸ“Έ
βœ… 23.9 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.13969) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ
βœ… 23.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 225.59) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ
(βœ… 23.9 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 248.34)*

3/4 = 75% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)
excl. AMZN, may have closed off-profit for some members

βœ…
24.9 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 93.040)
βœ… 24.9 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 337.97)
βœ… 24.9 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 84333.90 me |or 84289.90)
βœ… 24.9 - USOIL - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 92.76)
βœ… 24.9 - NAS100 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 30512.60) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ

5/5 = 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)


πŸ”ΉFRIDAY'S TRADES πŸ”Ή

✴️ 25.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry πŸ”„)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 4263.95 πŸ”„
✴️ 25.9 - INTC - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 128.47
✴️ 25.9 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 774.69
βœ… 25.9 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.317) πŸ“Έ
✴️ 25.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit | +re-entry πŸ”„)
πŸ‘‰ SL πŸ”‘ @: 30224.90 (30472.30 Dec future) πŸ”„
πŸ‘‰ TP
βœ… @: 30548.90 (30994.90 Dec future)
✴️ 25.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (open - in-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 226.19

1/6 - (5 open positions)


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It was a good Friday session for us, as we were able to close most of our previously open positions in profit - particularly the positions from Wednesday’s session.

This also included META πŸ“Έ - ultimately, of course, very unfortunate since it narrowly missed our much lower TP several times, but our position management was also not good. The same applies to our two FX trades (EUR/USD πŸ“Έ | USD/JPY πŸ“Έ). With Gold πŸ“Έ, we closed #53 in a row - although we are now off-profit again.

We are starting the new week with several open positions and initially saw a weaker first half of the Asian session. The main headwind was renewed uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Persian Gulf, after Tehran said it would stick to its proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and would not soften its conditions any further.

This makes it more difficult for the Trump administration to reach an agreement in the near term. We continue to expect mixed signals and generally assume that Washington wants to maintain the impression that it is still actively working toward an agreement. At the same time, extremely high fuel prices - particularly diesel - remain a significant headwind for consumer sentiment and domestic political pressure.

Higher oil prices and the overall cautious trading environment in Asia resulted in additional selling pressure on risk assets.
We expect Gold to find stronger support in the πŸ”Ό 4265 - 4280 range, at least for now. We are also making another slight update to our Nasdaq 100 position.

Oil prices will remain the key driver for the broader market environment for now - not only for stocks, but also for bonds, inflation expectations, and therefore the future path of interest rates.
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Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)

πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Chancellor John Healey Speech – 12:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP – 14:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Barkin Speech – 17:30

πŸ”Έ = Event of medium/high importance
♦️= Event of very high importance
πŸ”΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟑 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟒 = Data better than analysts' expectations


---

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

No major earnings reports today

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SmartTraderβ„’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
❀6πŸ‘4πŸ‘2πŸ”₯2🍾1
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό USD/JPY
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP
πŸ’Ž)
TP βœ… @: 157.219 | Widened to 157.364 πŸ”„

Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 156.850

β–Ί Concerns about further intervention from Tokyo and potentially in cooperation with Washington are very understandable - especially following comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent and even more so after remarks from Japanese officials such as Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura. We did in fact see slight intervention toward the end of regular trading in Japan, which quickly pushed USD/JPY around 100 pips lower.

β–Ί There will be further intervention as Tokyo tries to prevent the pair from moving back toward 160.00. At the same time, elevated oil prices and the large yield gap between US Treasuries and Japanese bonds continue to push the pair higher. Japanese bond yields have also risen sharply - to their highest level since 1995 - but the gap versus US Treasuries at the 10-year maturity still remains above 2%. Over the longer term, however, the JPY still has further upside potential - against a basket of currencies, not only against the USD.

β–Ί We currently see the pair trading around the 157.00 level and expect some upside toward the NYSE opening and during early US trading. The pair is now trading near/below 156.85 and we are going LONG here.

β–Ί Without the very real intervention risk, the pair would be trading significantly higher.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092801A


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We found the absolutely perfect entry prices. The pair has already traded near the TP.

A perfect trade (still open).

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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό USD/JPY SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: 157.219 | Widened to 157.364 πŸ”„ Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 156.850 β–Ί Concerns about further intervention from Tokyo and potentially in cooperation with Washington are very understandable…
⚑️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
USD/JPY
SL πŸ”‘ @: 157.029
TP
βœ… @: 157.364

We found the absolute perfect entry (range) and set an in-profit SL πŸ”‘. We can slightly widen our TP βœ….

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πŸ”Ή NYSE OPENING UPDATE πŸ”Ή

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SHORT EARLY NYSE TRADING πŸ”½ ExxonMobil (XOM) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…162.90 - 163.30


πŸ”Ή Nasdaq (-0.5%) - is trading lower after optimism about a breakthrough in the Iran war faded and oil prices rose at the start of the week. However, the Nasdaq is trading well above its pre-market lows. After the initial losses, we found a solid re-entry. We can move our SL and TP back to the previous levels. Once again today, news regarding potential progress between the US and Iran and the resulting oil price development will be crucial.
πŸ‘‰ SL πŸ”‘ @: 30248.90 (30496.30 Dec Future)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 30587.40 (30834.90 Dec Future)
⚠️ SL ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

πŸ”Ή Intel (-1.3%) - is opening lower after last week’s gains, which were driven by expectations of higher prices and stronger demand for server CPUs. We expect more dip buying near/below 120.00 and may look for a re-entry, although we initially expect some further moderate selling. At the same time, we are seeing some rotation out of growth stocks and higher-risk chip makers and back into NVDA.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 125.59

πŸ”Ή Meta (-0.4%) - is opening slightly lower after last week’s strong gains. We see upside from here and expect further upgrades from investment banks and investment firms this week. We are tightening our TP βœ… slightly. META is trading well above its pre-market lows. Market sentiment is not positive for META or the tech sector.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 768.53

πŸ”Ή Nvidia (+2.0%) - is the big winner and the main reason why the Nasdaq 100 is not trading significantly lower. My position already hit the TP in pre-market - unfortunately - as NVDA is opening near 229.50, resulting in a large profit. Our TP will be triggered including the gap. NVDA is benefiting from the company rolling out a new software platform that allows AI developers to set safeguards for agents and prevent them from breaking out of their intended environment. NVDA remains very attractive.
⚠️ TP ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️


β–Ί At the start of the week, we saw significant gains in energy prices during Asian trading. Oil prices are likely to remain elevated this week, although upside is limited as Trump will probably continue emphasizing that talks are taking place. We are selling XOM at the NYSE opening and expect some rotation into other sectors. Energy is the only sector trading higher in pre-market. Even if oil prices rise somewhat further, we see clear resistance above 163.00 and toward 165.00.

β–Ί XOM is opening around 1.6% higher and slightly above 163.00. We expect some cooling.

ExxonMobil (XOM): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 140–160x (14,000%–16,000%) – 2/3 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092802A


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We found a very strong / perfect entry in XOM.


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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό USD/JPY SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: 157.219 | Widened to 157.364 πŸ”„ Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 156.850 β–Ί Concerns about further intervention from Tokyo and potentially in cooperation with Washington are very understandable…
⚑️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
USD/JPY
TP βœ… @: 157.198
OR
CLOSE NOW / SOON βœ… @: 157.170 - 157.200
⚠️ CLOSED ALREADY βš οΈπŸ“Έ

Our USD/JPY almost triggered our SL. We can close our position here significantly in profit. We do not want to close at the SL. You could also keep the current TP and lift the SL.

We are seeing oil prices give back another part of their gains from Asian trading for now, which is currently stabilizing risk sentiment. Oil prices and the outlook for more diplomacy between the US and Iran will be the decisive factor.

Fundamentally, USD/JPY should be trading higher / moving higher.


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The USD/JPY has more upside. We look for a potential re-entry.


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LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 position size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…4107 - 4113


β–Ί All good things eventually come to an end - and our world-record Gold / Silver winning streak is now close to ending, or has probably already ended for some of you given today’s overselling in precious metals.

β–Ί The main headwinds are concerns that yields will continue to rise sharply, declining optimism about potential progress in talks between the US and Iran, and the outlook for tighter monetary policy heading into Q4. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s stay in New York was not extended, further reducing hopes for high-level talks. In addition, further targets in Saudi Arabia were apparently attacked after explosions were heard in the Saudi cities of Yanbu, Jazan, and Najran.

β–Ί Nevertheless, the right move here is to buy the overselling in Gold and close into the next rebound. Sharp losses lead to overselling. Gold has significant short-term upside potential from here.

β–Ί While it is certainly possible that we will see some further unwinding, we have now seen panic selling after signals around further US-Iran diplomacy deteriorated. However, I expect the Trump administration to say that talks will continue even if Araghchi returns to Tehran - which, in reality, was in line with his schedule anyway. So technically, it would be more accurate to say that his stay was not extended - but as always, it depends on how the message is spun.

β–Ί We see Gold now near 4110 and want to enter here.


Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 0.10-0.12x (10%-12%) - 1/2 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092501C


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⚑️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
SL πŸ”‘ @: 4108.43
TP
βœ… @: 4198.97


While Gold broke below the 4200 level, we at least found the perfect re-entry range after further selling when news outlets reported that Araghchi’s stay in New York had not been extended. In reality, we saw this as a negatively spun interpretation of the situation - as Araghchi left as scheduled.

The news that Trump is now apparently prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen assets in exchange for progress on Iran’s nuclear program is a positive development and should cause Gold to rebound sharply, even though Trump is primarily doing this to avoid being seen as the one responsible for the lack of progress.

We are widening our TP βœ… significantly.

We are also working with an SL πŸ”‘.

We are seeing oil prices decline for now. The news - although we expected Trump to try to keep the news flow positive - unfortunately came a little too late for our Nasdaq 100 position, which triggered the SL.

For our XOM SHORT, however, the news is very positive. This is exactly why we opened the trade, as we expected positive comments from the Trump administration aimed at limiting further gains in oil prices.

However, I consider it very unlikely that an agreement will be reached before the US midterm elections in November.


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LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Nasdaq 100 (US100) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry βœ…30330 - 30360

πŸ“Œ Nasdaq future (Dec'26) ~250 points higher
Dec'26 futures contract!


β–Ί The SL trigger was absolutely not ideal for our Nasdaq 100. Increasing concerns that tensions in the Persian Gulf are worsening and that the US and Iran are not getting any closer to restarting diplomacy weighed on risk assets - particularly the growth sector with the important chip / AI stocks.

β–Ί We have now seen some positive updates from the White House. Trump needs a success that he can present to Americans and wants concessions regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In reality, not much has changed in that regard.

β–Ί Overall, we see more upside than downside potential for stock markets over the upcoming sessions and generally in Q4.

β–Ί We are cautiously going LONG again in the Nasdaq 100, which is currently trading around 1% lower today.

β–Ί Oil prices are still higher today (WTI around +0.9%), but are trading significantly below the session highs.


Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 1.5-2x (150%-200%) - 2/3 trade size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092803A



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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Nasdaq 100 (US100) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) Recommended Entry βœ…30330 - 30360 πŸ“Œ Nasdaq future (Dec'26) ~250 points higher Dec'26 futures contract! β–Ί The SL trigger…
⚑️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
SL πŸ”‘ @: 4070.63
TP
βœ… @: 4147.89

Nasdaq 100 (US100) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
TP βœ… @: 30442.90 (30692.90 Dec future)

Risk sentiment has not deteriorated further in Asian pre-market trading for now. At the same time, hopes for an imminent political breakthrough in the Middle East conflict faded during US trading, as the situation remains largely unchanged. Trump is demanding concessions on Iran’s nuclear commitments, while Iran remains unwilling to make corresponding concessions.

We are updating the SL πŸ”‘ and TP βœ… here. We want to avoid an unnecessary or unwanted SL trigger, while tightening our TP.

We are also seeing some typical quarter-end rotation - portfolio rebalancing. For Gold, we still expect upside potential in October and Q4 overall. For now, however, the precious metal remains under pressure from elevated oil prices and yields at multi-year highs, as the market increasingly prices in further rate hikes.
The USD has extended last week’s gains further today.

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πŸ”Ή FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days πŸ”Ή

πŸ—“ August 10 - September 28
πŸ’― Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


πŸ“Š 5 - Week -Performance: August 10 - September 14
(= 25 full trading days)

πŸ”Ή Number of Trades/Signals: 137
πŸ”Ή Number of Trades Won: 128
πŸ”Ή Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 93.4% πŸ”Ό πŸ†

Dropped from statistics: 3/4 - 75% Signal Accuracy (August 07)
Added to statistics: 6/7 - 85,7%
Signal Accuracy (September 14)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


πŸ”Ή The last 5 trading days: September 22 - September 28 πŸ”Ή

βœ… 22.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4332.23) 5️⃣1️⃣
βœ… 22.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4367.39) 5️⃣2️⃣
βœ… 22.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 228.79)
βœ… 22.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30638.90)
βœ… 22.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 52022.40)
βœ… 22.9 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 51794.90 + overall in profit)

6/6 = 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)

βŒβœ… 23.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30547.30 | overall off-profit | re-entry in profit)
βœ… 23.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4302.29| overall in-profit)5️⃣3️⃣
βœ… 23.9 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.13969)
βœ… 23.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 225.59)
(βœ… 23.9 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (SL - 248.34)*

3/4 = 75% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)
excl. AMZN, may have closed off-profit for some members


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


Our πŸ”Ό Signal Accuracy / Success Rate in the five-week statistics has increased slightly once again. A 3/4 session (SA/SR = 75%) dropped out of the statistics and was replaced by the stronger September 14 session (6/7; SA/SR = 85.7%).

Out of a total of 137 trades across 25 full trading days, we lost only 9. That corresponds to an incredible 93.4% success rate πŸ†

No further updates in this part of the overview.
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πŸ”Ή OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days πŸ”Ή

βœ…
24.9 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 93.040)
βœ… 24.9 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 337.97)
βœ… 24.9 - BTC/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 84333.90 me |or 84289.90)
βœ… 24.9 - USOIL - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 92.76)
βœ… 24.9 - NAS100 - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 30512.60)

5/5 = 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)

✴️ 25.9 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry)
πŸ‘‰ SL πŸ”‘ @: 4076.43 πŸ”„ | TP βœ… @: 4154.21 πŸ”„
✴️ 25.9 - INTC - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 125.59 πŸ”„
✴️ 25.9 - META - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 768.53 πŸ”„
βœ… 25.9 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.317)
❌ 25.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 30248.90 | +re-entry) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ
βœ… 25.9 - NVDA - LONG ↗️ (TP - 226.19) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ

2/6 - (3 open positions)


πŸ”ΉTODAY'S TRADES (MONDAY) πŸ”Ή

βœ… 28.9 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.198 or similar) πŸ“Έ
✴️ 28.9 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ (open - in-profit)
TP βœ… @: 160.67
✴️
28.9 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 30413.80 (30663.8 Dec future) πŸ”„

1/3 - (2 open positions)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


A difficult session - or, more precisely, our positions carried over from Friday did not play out as we wanted (except NVDA). It was one of our weakest sessions in the past six months, especially as our portfolio was also hit by the heavy selling in precious metals and/or the broader withdrawal of liquidity, and elevated volatility.

I know many of you have almost forgotten what it feels like not to win basically every trade. But we have seen very difficult market conditions today, with significant uncertainty and markets reacting aggressively to very vague and ever-changing expectations. Oil prices, in particular, remain absolutely central to overall market sentiment. We had only 2 not profitable session (closing) over the past 30 trading days (!)


The closing of my NVDA position in the pre-market was particularly frustrating. NVDA πŸ“Έ opened much higher at 229.75 - around 1.4% above my exit. Many of you may therefore have been able to close considerably better.

There is still room for risk sentiment to deteriorate further, particularly as the market increasingly prices in the possibility of renewed escalation after the midterm elections rather than a clear path toward peace and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, corporate earnings have remained very resilient as more AI implementation has boosted revenues. Inflation concerns and expectations for higher rates have created additional headwinds, but overall it has still been a strong year - and a strong Q3 - for equities.

For our Gold position, we are moving both the SL πŸ”‘ and TP
βœ… slightly higher.

We are also working with a tighter TP
βœ… for the Nasdaq 100.
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Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)

♦️ πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί RBA Interest Rate Decision – 04:30 (reported: 🟑)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί RBA Press Conference – 05:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ Inflation Rate (MoM/YoY) Prel SEP – 07:00 (reported: πŸ”΄)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ BoE Consumer Credit AUG – 08:30 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Mortgage Approvals AUG – 08:30 (reported: πŸ”΄)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Mortgage Lending AUG – 08:30 (reported: 🟑)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Economic Sentiment SEP – 09:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Unemployment Benefit Claims AUG – 10:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB President Lagarde Speech – 11:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ GDP MoM JUL – 12:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ GDP MoM Prel AUG – 12:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL – 13:00
♦️ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ JOLTs Job Openings AUG – 14:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ CB Consumer Confidence SEP – 14:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Goolsbee Speech – 17:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Musalem Speech – 17:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Williams Speech – 18:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ API Crude Oil Stock Change SEP/25 – 20:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Industrial Production MoM Prel AUG – 23:50
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Retail Sales YoY AUG – 23:50

πŸ”Έ = Event of medium/high importance
♦️= Event of very high importance
πŸ”΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟑 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟒 = Data better than analysts' expectations


---

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

β˜€οΈ Carnival (CCL) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

---

SmartTraderβ„’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
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πŸ”° VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Silver (XAG/USD) βšͺ️
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 3/5 position size
SL
πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP
βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 60.82

β–Ί We saw risk assets, including stocks, move higher during Asian / European trading as oil prices eased somewhat, even though there are still no signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran. On the positive side, despite fresh Houthi attacks, oil is once again flowing through a key Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea, helping to increase Saudi oil exports.

β–Ί We see markets in Europe trading higher and Wall Street also edging up, although investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming economic data. This includes labor market data (JOLTS Job Openings), tomorrow’s European inflation data, US inflation data (PCE), as well as Chinese business activity data.

β–Ί The RBA raised rates by 25 basis points today, as expected. It was the RBA’s fourth consecutive rate hike as the fight against inflation continues around the world.

β–Ί Both our Gold position and our Nasdaq 100 hit their respective TPs. We see further upside and are buying Silver, which fell significantly more than Gold in recent sessions.

β–Ί Gold hit our TP, but our world-record winning streak has nevertheless ended. Gold continues to trade near our TP and has significant medium-term upside potential. We will look for re-entries, but currently prefer Silver slightly over Gold.

Silver (XAG/USD):

Multiply your usual β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 6.0–7.5 (600%–750%) – 3/5 position size, for contract size 100

Multiply your usual β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.6–0.75 (60%–75%) – 3/5 position size, for contract size 1000

Multiply your usual β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.12–0.15 (12%–15%) – 3/5 position size, for contract size 5000

You can see the contract size of your broker when you right click on the asset and click on "specification" (MetaTrader).


position code / 100% Transparency - 26082901A


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πŸ”Ή NYSE OPENING UPDATE πŸ”Ή


πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING πŸ”Ό SpaceX (SPCX) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…146.10 - 146.50


πŸ”° VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING πŸ”Ό (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…(ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)


πŸ”Ή ExxonMobil (-1.4%) - is the weakest performer among the 100 largest S&P 500 stocks. We found an excellent entry yesterday. XOM is opening near 160.30 and therefore below our TP - for a very nice profit.

πŸ”Ή Intel (+0.5%) - is opening higher after the stock fell sharply yesterday. INTC was one of the strongest performers in September and corrected yesterday amid weaker risk sentiment. We expect a strong performance from INTC in October / Q4. We remain LONG for now.

πŸ”Ή Meta (+1.2%) - remains generally bullish, even after yesterday’s correction. We are working with a tighter TP for now.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 759.39


β–Ί We see upside potential in SPCX. Elon Musk’s SpaceX successfully completed the 14th test flight of its massive Starship rocket early Monday. SpaceX sent its spacecraft into orbit for the first time and deployed 26 of its newest Starlink satellites. According to SpaceX, the massive Starship rocket could eventually carry up to 60 Starlink v3 satellites into orbit - around 20 times the capacity of its previous Falcon 9 rockets.

β–Ί SpaceX currently operates around 11,000 active satellites in orbit, compared with approximately 650 for its nearest competitor, Eutelsat OneWeb.

β–Ί SPCX has significant revenue and further growth potential. There is no question that Starlink will continue to grow very rapidly and provide a large share of the world’s internet connectivity - and I agree with Musk on this.

β–Ί SPCX fell around 2% yesterday amid broad market selling. Today, we see SPCX opening around 1% higher and expect further upside. SPCX is receiving positive coverage from investment banks / investment firms. While SPCX is an expensive stock, the revenue potential over the coming years is very large.

β–Ί We also want to position ourselves in the healthcare sector and diversify (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž). We see upside potential in (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž). The (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž). Overall, we see the healthcare sector in a strong position, although (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) ...

SpaceX (SPCX): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by ~160-180x (16,000%-18,000%) - 1/2 position size.

(ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092902A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26092903A


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πŸš€ Trade of the Day πŸš€

βœ… 28.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️

Movement in our favor: +0.22% πŸ“ˆ

❗️You could have increased your capital by: +1.62% πŸ“ˆβ—οΈ

Example:
↗️ Initial Capital: $5,000 β€”> +$80.87 Profit (+1.62%πŸš€)


πŸ“Š Last 5 closed Forex trades
βœ… 11.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 11.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 23.09 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️
βœ… 25.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 28.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️

❓ The possible profit and return was calculated using the β€œbalanced standard lot size”.

πŸ–₯ Calculate your appropriate trade size using the SmartTrader Lot Size Calculator

🚨Make sure you don’t miss the next ones!

Contact us to make sure you don’t miss the next trades:
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πŸ“ž Your trading success starts with a free call!
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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Dow Jones (US30) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 52200

πŸ“Œ DJI future ~45 points lower


β–Ί After yesterday’s very negative session, we are seeing mixed markets today - for Wall Street, it was the weakest trading day in more than a month.

β–Ί Saudi Arabia being able to resume oil flows through a key pipeline to the Red Sea has helped bring oil prices lower - at least for now.

β–Ί The USD remains strong, while US job openings have fallen to a five-month low. In the short term, however, weaker economic data is somewhat positive for markets, as it signals to the Fed that it should remain cautious with further rate hikes.

β–Ί Sentiment data has also deteriorated further and is now at multi-year lows. Persistently high inflation, in particular, continues to weigh on households.

β–Ί I also expect Friday’s NFP data to show a significant slowdown in hiring. That could further reduce expectations for additional back-to-back Fed rate hikes.

β–Ί At the same time, we are seeing a rebound in chip and growth stocks, along with a rotation out of more defensive sectors. The main driver behind this is currently the decline in oil prices.

β–Ί Nevertheless, defensive sectors remain well positioned, in our view, to relatively outperform.

β–Ί The Dow is currently trading near yesterday’s lows. We are cautiously going LONG here.

Dow Jones (US30): Multiply your β€œstandard position size (EUR/USD)” by ~1.25 - 1.5x (175%-200%) - 2/3 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26092904A


⏱️ Signal / Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by 8️⃣0️⃣ minutes! ⚠️
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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό USD/JPY
SL
πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP
βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry βœ…near/below 157.40

β–Ί We have traded USD/JPY very successfully this year and in recent weeks - predominantly LONG.

β–Ί Ongoing concerns about further intervention from Tokyo - potentially in coordination with Washington - have limited gains in USD/JPY. Investors therefore remain cautious about betting against the yen.

β–Ί Although the Bank of Japan officially ended its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework in March 2024, marking a historic step away from negative interest rates, we still see active BoJ intervention in the bond market. Yields have risen sharply, but the BoJ is currently trying to keep the 10-year yield near 3% - still well below US yield levels.

β–Ί At the same time, we are seeing further increases in US Treasury yields as the bond sell-off deepens. US borrowing costs have reached their highest level since the onset of the global financial crisis. It is likely that yields will continue to rise - including long-term 30-year yields moving toward 6%, or rather, in my view, eventually getting there - as productivity rises and the Fed continues its fight against inflation.

β–Ί USD/JPY is currently trading slightly below 157.50 and we are looking for an entry here. To limit potential losses in the event of a BoJ intervention, we are working with an SL - deliberately not set too tight.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26092905A

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β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


ALL our FX trades over the past two months (since Oct. 1st):


βœ… 03.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 07.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 10.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 11.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 14.08 - EUR/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ
❌ 18.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (+Re-entry)
βœ… 19.08 - EUR/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ
βœ… 24.08 - EUR/CAD - LONG ↗️
βœ… 25.08 - EUR/CAD - LONG ↗️
βœ… 28.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 31.08 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 01.09 - GBP/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ
❌ 02.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (+Re-entry)
βœ… 03.09 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 04.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (+Re-entry)
πŸŸ‘βœ… 04.09 - EUR/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (Mini-Profit)
βœ… 08.09 - AUD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 09.09 - EUR/CAD - SHORT β†˜οΈ
βœ… 10.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 11.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 11.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 23.09 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️
βœ… 25.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️
βœ… 28.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️

21/23 = 91.3% Success Rate
*excl. mini-profit trade

Trades clickable = 100% Transparency

πŸ†• 29.09 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️


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