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LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING
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TP
Recommended Entry Range
πΉ S&P 500 (+0.4%) - is trading near its all-time high. We found an excellent entry, and our position is well in profit. We are setting an in-profit SL π and keeping our current TP, which is at an all-time high.
π SL π @: 7805.40 | TP
(-10 points for SPX)
πΉ ExxonMobil (-1.0%) - is opening significantly lower. We found the absolute perfect entry yesterday. XOM is trading below our TP (163.21) in pre-market. This will be another big profit with XOM - congratulations!
πΉ Intel (+1.0%) - is opening strongly after coming under pressure yesterday amid concerns that INTC will have to compete with TSMC for Muskβs Terafab initiative. However, the deal remains enormous, and the outlook for AI CPU demand remains very positive. INTC benefits significantly from being a chip foundry with manufacturing operations primarily located in the US. We remain LONG.
πΉ Meta (+0.3%) - is opening slightly higher after a very strong previous session. We remain LONG and keep our TP (
πΉ Netflix (0.0%) - is opening flat. We found a good entry after NFLXβs weak performance over the past 5 weeks. We can slightly widen our TP
π TP
βΊ We made excellent trades during the previous session and consistently stayed ahead of the market. Investment banks also issued the analyst calls we expected or generally agree with our views. Overall, we could, and probably should, have stayed LONG in NVDA, as I remain very bullish on the leader in AI GPUs - across all time frames - and consider it undervalued. NVDAβs gains are the engine driving Wall Street and other chip / AI stocks. NVDA received another boost from the strong capabilities demonstrated by Europeβs largest AI model, Mistral. Mistral Large 4 (ML4), also known as le Chonk, was trained over two months on 4,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell GPUs deployed in Mistralβs own data centers in Europe.
βΊ We are seeing outperformance in tech / growth stocks. This is generally an environment in which AAPL also underperforms. AAPL is opening slightly lower, similar to yesterday. We still like AAPL and see short-term upside potential. While the stock is not in focus today, we are getting a solid entry here.
βΊ We see upside potential in Korean company SKHY, which is opening weakly following even sharper losses in Korea. An entry below 192.00 is attractive. We are generally looking for entries in chipmakers, including NVDA, MRVL, and potentially MU. AMD is also bullish but is already opening very strongly. We want to buy dips. We are already LONG in INTC.
Apple (AAPL): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 80β90x (8,000%β9,000%) β 2/3 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100602A
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Congratulations on amazing profits including yet another huge profit with oil (XOM).
AAPL fell even near 330.50 but is well in profit now (for us).
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LONG (BUY)πΌ Nvidia (NVDA) πΊπΈ
β οΈ 3/4 position size
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
239.40 - 239.90 π
βΊ We generally see further upside potential for NVDA, even though we are now seeing some headwinds. After NVDA reached a new all-time high and approached a $6 trillion market cap, we also saw some profit-taking. Following NVDAβs initial outperformance, AVGO has now jumped sharply, supported by closer cooperation with Anthropic and a massive circular investment deal.
βΊ We see further upside potential in the tech sector, with NVDA retaining a key role. We will not get a particularly large dip, so we are happy with an entry in NVDA to now near 240.00. We are seeing some profit-taking for now, but remain bullish on NVDA - across all time frames. We want to build a LONG position and further improve our average entry if needed.
βΊ We expect further Buy / Overweight recommendations from investment banks in the coming sessions, along with significantly higher price targets.
βΊ A slight rebound in oil prices halted the strong gains on Wall Street that had pushed the Nasdaq and now also the S&P 500 to new all-time highs (also triggering our TPβ
πΈ; we also made nice profits with XOM πΈ directly at the NYSE opening and with NFLX πΈ - I closed slightly higher). MRVL jumped more than 7% following impressive long-term revenue projections.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100603A
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NVDA has now fallen further - even belowπ½ $240.00 π and into negative territory for the day.
We want to hold a LONG position in NVDA.
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LONG (BUY)
β οΈ 3/4 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ We generally see further upside potential for NVDA, even though we are now seeing some headwinds. After NVDA reached a new all-time high and approached a $6 trillion market cap, we also saw some profit-taking. Following NVDAβs initial outperformance, AVGO has now jumped sharply, supported by closer cooperation with Anthropic and a massive circular investment deal.
βΊ We see further upside potential in the tech sector, with NVDA retaining a key role. We will not get a particularly large dip, so we are happy with an entry in NVDA to now near 240.00. We are seeing some profit-taking for now, but remain bullish on NVDA - across all time frames. We want to build a LONG position and further improve our average entry if needed.
βΊ We expect further Buy / Overweight recommendations from investment banks in the coming sessions, along with significantly higher price targets.
βΊ A slight rebound in oil prices halted the strong gains on Wall Street that had pushed the Nasdaq and now also the S&P 500 to new all-time highs (also triggering our TP
Nvidia (NVDA): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 100 β 110x (10,000%β11,000%) β 3/4 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100603A
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NVDA has now fallen further - even below
We want to hold a LONG position in NVDA.
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LONG (BUY)πΌ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) π°
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 3/5 position size
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
85450 - 85650
βΊ Some investment banks have lowered their BTC price targets for 2026, including Standard Chartered ($100K), Citigroup ($113K), and Bernstein ($125K). Nevertheless, all their targets remain very ambitious and would imply extremely impressive further gains in the fourth quarter.
βΊ I see cryptocurrencies as well positioned for further gains, particularly since they showed strong resilience and even substantial gains in September - a rather chaotic month that often weighs on risk-sensitive assets. Historically, September has also been the weakest month for BTC - not just for stocks - with an average decline of 2.4% in September from 2013 to 2025. This September, however, Bitcoin rose more than 6%.
βΊ Higher oil prices and a strong USD did little to diminish the appeal of cryptocurrencies amid growing doubts about financial stability and plunging bond prices.
βΊ A rebound in oil prices has now pulled BTC slightly lower. BTC lost more than 1% over the past hour, but remains up around 0.5% over the past 24 hours. We are also seeing a slight correction in other risk assets, including stocks. Oil prices remain key.
βΊ We see further upside potential for cryptocurrencies in October and a strong fourth-quarter performance that could indeed push BTC toward $100,000.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100604A
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β οΈ Elevated volatility; 3/5 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ Some investment banks have lowered their BTC price targets for 2026, including Standard Chartered ($100K), Citigroup ($113K), and Bernstein ($125K). Nevertheless, all their targets remain very ambitious and would imply extremely impressive further gains in the fourth quarter.
βΊ I see cryptocurrencies as well positioned for further gains, particularly since they showed strong resilience and even substantial gains in September - a rather chaotic month that often weighs on risk-sensitive assets. Historically, September has also been the weakest month for BTC - not just for stocks - with an average decline of 2.4% in September from 2013 to 2025. This September, however, Bitcoin rose more than 6%.
βΊ Higher oil prices and a strong USD did little to diminish the appeal of cryptocurrencies amid growing doubts about financial stability and plunging bond prices.
βΊ A rebound in oil prices has now pulled BTC slightly lower. BTC lost more than 1% over the past hour, but remains up around 0.5% over the past 24 hours. We are also seeing a slight correction in other risk assets, including stocks. Oil prices remain key.
βΊ We see further upside potential for cryptocurrencies in October and a strong fourth-quarter performance that could indeed push BTC toward $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.35β0.40x (35%β40%). Cryptocurrencies should always be traded with caution. Short-term moves of 5% or more are possible at any time. 3/5 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100604A
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LONG (BUY)πΌ Russell 2000 (US2000) πΊπΈ
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 3/5 position size
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Recommended Entry Rangeβ
2828 - 2833
βΊ We have seen significant underperformance in small caps since the start of the Iran war - and again as oil prices resumed their sharp rise from late August / September through today.
βΊ The Russell 2000 is also significantly underperforming today and is now trading well in the red amid a rebound in oil prices.
βΊ Crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on four days during the last week of September, according to shipping data released on Monday. This underscores the resilience of regional oil flows despite attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
βΊ While there is little reason for optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, it is clear that the Trump administration will try additional ways to bring down high oil and fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
βΊ While we generally expect the outperformance of tech / Big Tech / AI to continue, we like this entry into the Russell 2000 and are taking it. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new all-time highs today, while the Russell 2000 remains far from its own.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26090605A
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LONG (BUY)
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 3/5 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ We have seen significant underperformance in small caps since the start of the Iran war - and again as oil prices resumed their sharp rise from late August / September through today.
βΊ The Russell 2000 is also significantly underperforming today and is now trading well in the red amid a rebound in oil prices.
βΊ Crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on four days during the last week of September, according to shipping data released on Monday. This underscores the resilience of regional oil flows despite attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
βΊ While there is little reason for optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, it is clear that the Trump administration will try additional ways to bring down high oil and fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
βΊ While we generally expect the outperformance of tech / Big Tech / AI to continue, we like this entry into the Russell 2000 and are taking it. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new all-time highs today, while the Russell 2000 remains far from its own.
Russell 2000 (US2000): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 15β18x (1,700%β2,000%) β 3/5 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26090605A
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π August 18 - October 06
ββββββββββββββ
(= 25 full trading days)
πΉ Number of Trades/Signals: 133 (excl. INTC & META)
πΉ Number of Trades Won: 121
πΉ Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 91%
Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100%
Added to statistics: 6/7 - 85.7% Signal Accuracy (September 29)
ββββββββββββββ
β 30.9 - NAS100 - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 30466.60 | or clsd)
β 30.9 - XAG/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 60.897 - overall in profit)
β 30.9 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30632.30)
β 30.9 - MSFT - LONG βοΈ (TP - 519.23)
β 30.9 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 4192.12)
β 30.9 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (SL - 51032.90)
ββ 30.9 - EUR/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 1.12721 | mixed | +re-entry in profit)
β 30.9 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51163.90)
5/8 = 62.5% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)
β 1.10 - UKOIL - SHORT βοΈ(TP-99.52 m. or100.21|+re-entry)
β 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30609.40 me | or clsd)
β 1.10 - MU - LONG βοΈ (TP - 1084.70 me or 1081.10)
β 1.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 4174.13)
β 1.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51047.40)
5/5 = 100%
ββββββββββββββ
Most of our sessions during the five-week period are flawless (meaning that we closed all positions opened that day with a significant profit). One of these flawless sessions π (4/4; SA/SR = 100%) dropped out of our statistics and was replaced by a strong but not flawless 6/7 session (SA/SR = 85.7%). Our
No further updates in this part of the overview. Our META and INTC positions remain open. After initial gains, both stocks closed lower. META remains bullish, while INTC continues to be held back by renewed profit-taking following rebound attempts.
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β 2.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51472.30)
β΄οΈ 2.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (open - overall near break-even)
π SL π @: 4119.43
β 2.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51284.70)
β 2.10 - NFLX - LONG βοΈ (TP - 67.69 me | or 67.63)
β 2.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 162.51)
β 2.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 162.71)
β 2.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30950.40)
β 2.10 - UKOIL - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 100.36)
7/8 - (1 open position)
β 5.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30909.30)
β 5.10 - AAPL - LONG βοΈ (TP - 335.33)
β 5.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51174.90)
β 5.10 - NVDA - LONG βοΈ (TP - 238.43)
β 5.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 163.21)
5/5 = 100%
β 6.10 - SPX500 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 7824.90) πΈ
β΄οΈ 6.10 - AAPL - LONG βοΈ (open - in-profit)
π TP
β΄οΈ 6.10 - NVDA - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
β΄οΈ 6.10 - BTC/USD - LONG βοΈ (open - near break-even)
π TP
β΄οΈ 6.10 - US2000 - LONG βοΈ (open - break-even)
π TP
1/5 - (4 open positions)
ββββββββββββββ
We closed three positions from three different sessions. Overall, it was a good session, with Gold also moving back into profit (currently around break-even overall, depending on the initial entry price). We are moving our SL π & TP
Mondayβs XOM trade πΈ was an absolutely perfect trade - even against the market. We could not have sold at a better level on Monday and closed below our TP at todayβs opening.
We also closed NFLX πΈ from Friday and todayβs S&P 500 πΈ position, with the TP at an all-time high.
We are tightening the TP
We still like our overall positioning. We did not make the mistake of buying too aggressively into the rally and instead looked for solid entries.
Overall, not a particularly spectacular session, but a good one. Congratulations.
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π7π7π₯4β€1
Julian
π Austria π¦πΉ
ββββββββββββββ
π From β¬1,500 to more than β¬10,000 in about four months.
Nearly β¬1,500 in profit in the latest week alone.
Julian joined SmartTrader VIP
By October 2, he reported approximately β¬8,800 in total profit, bringing his account balance to more than β¬10,000.
His latest weekly screenshot shows β¬1,437.02 in profit after swaps. Even Julian was surprised by how well the week had gone
β
His plans for those profits make the story even better.
π A passionate motocross rider, Julian plans to buy a KTM 250 for next season.
π He also wants to surprise his whole family with a vacation as a Christmas gift - including his grandmother, who hasnβt traveled outside Austria in more than 15 years
Congrats, Julian - and thank you for sharing your results with us!
β
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LONG (BUY)πΌ WTI (USOIL) π’ (spot)
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
β οΈ HIGH volatility; 3/5 position size
Recommended Entryβ
near/below 89.24
(+$0.54 futures contract - Nov'26; near/below 89.78
βΊ We continue to see these 24β48-hour markets and another shift in risk sentiment, driven by concerns that oil prices will rise again after the recent decline, as well as actual gains (WTI up around 0.5%, Brent more than 1.2%) following fresh escalations in the Strait of Hormuz. Omanβs air force evacuated ten crew members from a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker following an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The attack sparked a fire on board the vessel. According to Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, at least seven other incidents involving tankers have been reported over the past week.
βΊ Tehran once again warned against using βillegalβ routes in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated that there would be consequences and that these routes would be closed.
βΊ Higher oil prices are once again driving strength in the USD and a further rise in yields (also putting pressure on precious metals and causing our gold positionβif not already closed earlierβto hit its SL). The significantly stronger USD has limited oilβs gains for now, but we expect further increases before oil prices can stabilize.
βΊ Further increases in oil prices mean, however, that risk assets, including stocks, will remain under pressure for now, with Wall Street trading near all-time highs and corporate earnings still expected to remain strong.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100701A
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LONG (BUY)
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry
(+$0.54 futures contract - Nov'26; near/below 89.78
βΊ We continue to see these 24β48-hour markets and another shift in risk sentiment, driven by concerns that oil prices will rise again after the recent decline, as well as actual gains (WTI up around 0.5%, Brent more than 1.2%) following fresh escalations in the Strait of Hormuz. Omanβs air force evacuated ten crew members from a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker following an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The attack sparked a fire on board the vessel. According to Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, at least seven other incidents involving tankers have been reported over the past week.
βΊ Tehran once again warned against using βillegalβ routes in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated that there would be consequences and that these routes would be closed.
βΊ Higher oil prices are once again driving strength in the USD and a further rise in yields (also putting pressure on precious metals and causing our gold positionβif not already closed earlierβto hit its SL). The significantly stronger USD has limited oilβs gains for now, but we expect further increases before oil prices can stabilize.
βΊ Further increases in oil prices mean, however, that risk assets, including stocks, will remain under pressure for now, with Wall Street trading near all-time highs and corporate earnings still expected to remain strong.
WTI (USOIL) π’: Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 2.5β3.5x (250%β350%) β if contract size 10; 3/5 position size
WTI (USOIL) π’: Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 0.25β0.35x (25%β35%) β if contract size 100; 3/5 position size
WTI (USOIL) π’: Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 0.025β0.035x (2.5%β3.5%) β if contract size 1000; 3/5 position size
(Contract size: right-click the asset in MT4/5 -> βSpecificationβ)
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100701A
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β°
β°
β°
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL
LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING
TP
Recommended Entry
π DJI future ~42 points lower
π° VIP SIGNAL
SHORT AFTER NYSE TRADING
TP
Recommended Entry Range
πΉ Russell 2000 (-0.8%) - is trading lower with global stocks seeing some profit taking as returning concerns about higher oil prices as well as inflation and no end in sight for the rising yields soured sentiment. We generally expect markets to stabilize later today, however, small caps will react more sensitively to oil prices and yields. We thus set our TP near entry price.
π TP
πΉ Apple (+1.1%) - is the big and one of the very few strong winners in New York and especially in the Nasdaq 100. If your position did not already hit TP in pre-market then it will hit it at NYSE opening + gap. Yorkville Ives gave AAPL an outperform rating and an impressive PT of $400.
πΉ Intel (-0.2%) - opens only slightly lower, but has seen some selling also in the previous session. INTC will find buyers nearing $110.00 but short-term the stock will remain volatile. For now, we tighten our TP.
π TP
πΉ Meta (+0.4%) - is opening a bit lower but generally remains bullish. However, we expect a negative session for META today. Nevertheless, we keep our current TP (
πΉ Nvidia (-0.8%) - is facing a bit of profit taking after the recent sharp gains but remains bullish. Yorkville Ives is the next investment firm which urges to invest in NVDA and expects the chip giant to "outperform" (PT $300). It remains attractive to buy dips and we will look to do so in the range $234 - $236 in case NVDA cools further. We tighten our TP
π TP
βΊ While tech / growth stocks, particularly the important chip / AI stocks, are seeing further profit-taking after recent gains, the Dow is falling even more sharply, despite the 30-stock index already underperforming last week. This is due to weakness in financials and CAT, which is linked to the AI sector and is one of the Dowβs most important stocks. However, losses in GS, V, JPM, and AXP are weighing particularly heavily on the Dow.
βΊ While we look for dip-buying opportunities in chip stocks such as AMD, MU, MRVL, and NVDA, we are buying the dip in the Dow for now. We may initially see some additional selling pressure, but we see upside potential for the Dow and generally expect less volatility and downside potential than in the Nasdaq - at least today. We are using the volatility around the NYSE opening to find an entry near 51000 - we see the Dow trading at around 51060 in pre-market trading.
βΊ We are also opening a small SHORT position and choosing TSLA. Investment banks are not optimistic about TSLA ahead of earnings - for example, Goldman Sachs yesterday with a βNeutralβ rating and a $360 price target, below the current price, or UBS today, also with a βNeutralβ rating and a $391 price target (up from $385). A βNeutralβ rating is in reality a negative rating.
βΊ TSLA benefits from expectations of potentially massive future growth, as investors believe in CEO Muskβs vision. With SPCX, however, they now have a more attractive stock through which to bet on that vision. TSLA remains extremely expensive and is, of course, absurdly overvalued on fundamentals. We are cautiously going SHORT and see some headwinds ahead. TSLA is opening around 0.6% lower near 378.20 - initially, however, we expect a rebound driven by the typical dip-buying in TSLA & SPCX, followed by resistance in the
Dow Jones (US30): Multiply your βstandard position size (EUR/USD)β by ~1.2 - 1.5x (120%-150%) - 2/3 position size
Tesla (TSLA): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 50β55x (5,000%β 5,500%) β 1/2 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100702A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100703A
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βTSLA is opening around 0.6% lower near 378.20 - initially, however, we expect a rebound driven by the typical dip-buying in TSLA & SPCX, followed by resistance in the π½ 381.00 - 382.50 range and then losses toward 375.00.β
This may be the most accurate price prediction you will ever see with TSLA which is generally seen as unpredictable. We could not have been more right. TSLA is now trading slightly below 375 and has some further downside potential. I updated the TP from its original level of 375.57 (where I closed) - but even at 376.61: a phenomenal trade.
The Dow now offers a better entryπΌ below 51000
NO DELAY as a SmartTrader VIPπ member ββ°
This may be the most accurate price prediction you will ever see with TSLA which is generally seen as unpredictable. We could not have been more right. TSLA is now trading slightly below 375 and has some further downside potential. I updated the TP from its original level of 375.57 (where I closed) - but even at 376.61: a phenomenal trade.
The Dow now offers a better entry
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LONG (BUY)πΌ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘
β οΈ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entryβ
near 4102.50
βΊ We see stabilizing risk sentiment, as oil prices are no longer risingβbut only after our TP was triggered. Oil prices now paint a mixed picture: WTI is actually down today (-0.4%), while Brent is still up around 0.6%.
βΊ We see upside potential in risk assets, including stocks and the Nasdaq 100, but do not want to increase our exposure too much, as we are already positioned LONG in the Dow and Russell 2000. The Dow would actually be trading significantly higher if its two most heavily weighted stocks were not sharply lower (GS -2.3% and CAT down more than 6.2%).
βΊ We could call it an unfortunate end to our gold positionβand it certainly was, with our TP nearly triggered twice. At the same time, we could have / should have closed, as the high volatility and market swings would have allowed for a lower entry anyway.
βΊ We are a little late to the rebound, but see gold moving higher in the short term, as we expect only limited additional near-term upside for the USD. Oil prices remain key.
βΊ Gold is trying to find buyers near 4100 (and silver at $60/oz). We limit potential losses with a relatively tight SL.
position code / 100% Transparency - 2610704A
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LONG (BUY)
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry
βΊ We see stabilizing risk sentiment, as oil prices are no longer risingβbut only after our TP was triggered. Oil prices now paint a mixed picture: WTI is actually down today (-0.4%), while Brent is still up around 0.6%.
βΊ We see upside potential in risk assets, including stocks and the Nasdaq 100, but do not want to increase our exposure too much, as we are already positioned LONG in the Dow and Russell 2000. The Dow would actually be trading significantly higher if its two most heavily weighted stocks were not sharply lower (GS -2.3% and CAT down more than 6.2%).
βΊ We could call it an unfortunate end to our gold positionβand it certainly was, with our TP nearly triggered twice. At the same time, we could have / should have closed, as the high volatility and market swings would have allowed for a lower entry anyway.
βΊ We are a little late to the rebound, but see gold moving higher in the short term, as we expect only limited additional near-term upside for the USD. Oil prices remain key.
βΊ Gold is trying to find buyers near 4100 (and silver at $60/oz). We limit potential losses with a relatively tight SL.
Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.10-0.12x (10%-12%) - 1/2 position size.
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Dow Jones (US30) πΊπΈ
SL π @: 51169.40
TP
OR
CLOSE
π DJI future ~25 points lower
We are setting an in-profit SL for our Dow position, which is now trading near our TP. We see some resistance in the 51250 - 51300 range, so we are also tightening our TP - or, better yet, simply closing the position.
You can close the position, as we expect continued volatility to allow for a lower re-entry anyway.
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LONG (BUY)πΌ SK Hynix (SKHY) π°π·(πΊπΈ)
β οΈ HIGH volatility; 2/5 position size;
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
177.10 - 177.40
βΊ We are cautiously buying a small position in SKHY, which has significantly underperformed this week and is also trading 3% lower in todayβs final trading minutes (in New York) - currently near 177.00.
βΊ Samsung and SKHY, both leaders in High-Bandwidth Memory alongside MU, dominate the market and have benefited from massive memory demand and rising prices, which have pushed margins to extreme levels.
βΊ D.A. Davidson expects the MU stock price to triple and sees memory demand significantly outstripping supply in 2027 and even into 2028. MU is up more than 3.5% following this very positive outlook / analyst call, while SKHY (and Samsung) remain under pressure.
βΊ SKHY will remain volatile, but we can start building a LONG position here. Strong gains in MU and a broader stabilization of the memory sector will also support SKHY. The stock has fallen sharply over recent sessions ahead of earnings later this month.
βΊ AMD is also interesting - currently with support atπΌ 650.00. We remain bullish on NVDA (we are LONG - we see further support at πΌ 234.50 - 236.50). INTC has outperformed other chipmakers today (currently up 0.8%).
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100705A
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LONG (BUY)
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ We are cautiously buying a small position in SKHY, which has significantly underperformed this week and is also trading 3% lower in todayβs final trading minutes (in New York) - currently near 177.00.
βΊ Samsung and SKHY, both leaders in High-Bandwidth Memory alongside MU, dominate the market and have benefited from massive memory demand and rising prices, which have pushed margins to extreme levels.
βΊ D.A. Davidson expects the MU stock price to triple and sees memory demand significantly outstripping supply in 2027 and even into 2028. MU is up more than 3.5% following this very positive outlook / analyst call, while SKHY (and Samsung) remain under pressure.
βΊ SKHY will remain volatile, but we can start building a LONG position here. Strong gains in MU and a broader stabilization of the memory sector will also support SKHY. The stock has fallen sharply over recent sessions ahead of earnings later this month.
βΊ AMD is also interesting - currently with support at
SK Hynix (SKHY): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 100β120x (10,000%β11,000%) β 2/5 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100705A
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TidyCal
15 Minutes Meeting - SmartTrader Community
π6β€4π3
π August 19 - October 07
ββββββββββββββ
(= 25 full trading days)
πΉ Number of Trades/Signals: 137 (excl. INTC & META)
πΉ Number of Trades Won: 123
πΉ Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 89.8%
Dropped from statistics: 3/4 - 75% Signal Accuracy (August 18)
Added to statistics: 5/8 - 62,5% Signal Accuracy (September 30)
ββββββββββββββ
β 1.10 - UKOIL - SHORT βοΈ(TP-99.52 m. or100.21|+re-entry)
β 1.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30609.40 me | or clsd)
β 1.10 - MU - LONG βοΈ (TP - 1084.70 me or 1081.10)
β 1.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 4174.13)
β 1.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51047.40)
5/5 = 100%
β 2.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51472.30)
β 2.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (SL - 4119.43 | +re-entry)
β 2.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51284.70)
β 2.10 - NFLX - LONG βοΈ (TP - 67.69 me | or 67.63)
β 2.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 162.51)
β 2.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 162.71)
β 2.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30950.40)
β 2.10 - UKOIL - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 100.36)
7/8 = 87.5% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)
ββββββββββββββ
Our
We also had a very unfortunate SL closing with Gold today - a position we should have closed (well) in profit. Ultimately, our position management was too greedy, resulting in an extremely rare off-profit closing for us in a precious metals position.
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β 5.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30909.30)
β 5.10 - AAPL - LONG βοΈ (TP - 335.33)
β 5.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51174.90)
β 5.10 - NVDA - LONG βοΈ (TP - 238.43)
β 5.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 163.21)
5/5 = 100%
β 6.10 - SPX500 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 7824.90)
β 6.10 - AAPL - LONG βοΈ (TP - 336.67 | or 335.07 + gap)
β΄οΈ 6.10 - NVDA - LONG βοΈ (open - in-profit)
π TP
β΄οΈ 6.10 - BTC/USD - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
β΄οΈ 6.10 - US2000 - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
2/5 - (3 open positions)
β 7.10 - USOIL - LONG βοΈ (TP - 89.99) πΈ
β 7.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51249.90 me or similar) πΈ
β 7.10 - TSLA - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 375.57 me | or 376.61) πΈ
β 7.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 4128.13) πΈ
β΄οΈ 7.10 - SKHY - LONG βοΈ (open - deep in profit)
π TP
4/5 - (1 open positions)
ββββββββββββββ
It is of course frustrating, because this session could have been exceptionally strong. Ultimately, a very rare position management mistake in Gold πΈ - my responsibility! - led to mixed results. Our position was well in profit overall on Tuesday and should have been closed. Many of you probably did so, as we were also seeing the volatility. Particularly frustrating: Twice, the position came extremely close to a TP
Aside from that, we reacted very well to todayβs market moves, made strong decisions, and showed excellent timing - including an absolutely perfect TSLA πΈ prediction.
Our new Gold πΈ position has already hit TP. We could have found a slightly better entry here; with the previous position, we should not (!) have let it reach an SL closing in the first place.
Toward the end of NYSE trading, we found an excellent entry in SKHY. SKHY is already trading at 181.50 after hours, putting it well above our TP.
I closed AAPL πΈ in pre-market trading after widening my TP. AAPL opened at 336.96 - so if your position had not already been closed in pre-market by you or your broker, your exit was even better.
Our portfolio positions delivered mixed performances. However, we see signs of stabilizing risk sentiment. INTC rebounded strongly, while we want to give META, NVDA, Russell 2000, and BTC a little more time.
Todayβs session was an important reminder to be a little more conservative with positions that are sensitive to risk sentiment. At the same time, it is essential to recognize changing market conditions and make informed decisions (the right ones!), rather than act out of panic. We did that very well today
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Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)
β¦οΈ π©πͺ Balance of Trade AUG β 06:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π©πͺ Exports MoM AUG β 06:00 (reported: π΄)
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Credit Conditions Survey β 08:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Waller Speech β 08:30
πΈ πͺπΊ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts β 11:30
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Gov Bailey Speech β 12:15
πΈ πΊπΈ Initial Jobless Claims OCT/03 β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 β 15:00
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Musalem Speech β 17:40
πΈ π―π΅ Household Spending AUG (MoM/YoY) β 23:30
πΈ = Event of medium/high importance
β¦οΈ= Event of very high importance
π΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
π‘ = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
π’ = Data better than analysts' expectations
---
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
βοΈ PepsiCo (PEP) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Tesco (TSCDY) π¬π§
---
SmartTraderβ’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)
β¦οΈ π©πͺ Balance of Trade AUG β 06:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π©πͺ Exports MoM AUG β 06:00 (reported: π΄)
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Credit Conditions Survey β 08:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Waller Speech β 08:30
πΈ πͺπΊ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts β 11:30
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Gov Bailey Speech β 12:15
πΈ πΊπΈ Initial Jobless Claims OCT/03 β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 β 15:00
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Musalem Speech β 17:40
πΈ π―π΅ Household Spending AUG (MoM/YoY) β 23:30
πΈ = Event of medium/high importance
β¦οΈ= Event of very high importance
π΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
π‘ = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
π’ = Data better than analysts' expectations
---
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
βοΈ PepsiCo (PEP) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Tesco (TSCDY) π¬π§
---
SmartTraderβ’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
π3β€2π2
π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘
β οΈ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entryβ
near/above 4123
βΊ We are seeing significantly higher oil prices: WTI and Brent are up around 5% - supported by additional panic buying following the initial gains. Escalation concerns are keeping markets on edge after reports emerged that the Trump administration is considering large-scale military operations in Iran in the coming weeks. US President Donald Trump said last week, and reiterated in statements this week, that he does not want a deal with Iran to end the war. Yields have risen further and are also climbing sharply today / right now with the US 10-year Treasury yield up more than 7 basis points, for example.
βΊ Gold is currently still trading higher for the day as investors pull out of risk assets and, with few places to hide, some turn to gold as a safe haven. Gold has benefited little from this recently, as it has been strongly negatively correlated with oil prices, whose rise has pushed yields to their highest levels in decades.
βΊ We expect selling pressure in Gold. Silver is already down more than 1.5%, and Gold will also be unable to stay in positive territory from here unless oilβs gains ease very significantly. We are selling near 4125.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100801A
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SHORT (SELL)
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry
βΊ We are seeing significantly higher oil prices: WTI and Brent are up around 5% - supported by additional panic buying following the initial gains. Escalation concerns are keeping markets on edge after reports emerged that the Trump administration is considering large-scale military operations in Iran in the coming weeks. US President Donald Trump said last week, and reiterated in statements this week, that he does not want a deal with Iran to end the war. Yields have risen further and are also climbing sharply today / right now with the US 10-year Treasury yield up more than 7 basis points, for example.
βΊ Gold is currently still trading higher for the day as investors pull out of risk assets and, with few places to hide, some turn to gold as a safe haven. Gold has benefited little from this recently, as it has been strongly negatively correlated with oil prices, whose rise has pushed yields to their highest levels in decades.
βΊ We expect selling pressure in Gold. Silver is already down more than 1.5%, and Gold will also be unable to stay in positive territory from here unless oilβs gains ease very significantly. We are selling near 4125.
Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.10-0.12x (10%-12%) - 1/2 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100801A
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ EUR/USD
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entryβ
near/above 1.11970
βΊ We are seeing some βSell Americaβ trading amid concerns that the US will soon resume its strikes against Iran. At the same time, there are no signs that US President Donald Trump is pushing for a deal with Iran to end the ongoing war.
βΊWe are seeing significantly higher oil prices today, with WTI up nearly 5%. The βSell Americaβ trade is limiting USD gains here. However, higher oil prices will continue to weigh on the EUR, JPY, and other currencies. In the Eurozone, more EUR must be exchanged for USD to pay for more expensive oil imports.
βΊ We are seeing sharply rising yields in the US - but also in Europe, so this effect creates no additional headwinds for EUR/USD.
βΊ The βSell Americaβ trade will fade as strong US corporate earnings continue to confirm Wall Streetβs outperformance relative to Europe.
βΊ Additionally, the FOMC minutes reinforced the hawkish tone that accompanied the Fedβs September rate hike. Most participants considered further tightening appropriate, and almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Recent weaker hiring data and the surprisingly cooler-than-expected, though already outdated, PCE report will only temporarily temper expectations that further tightening is needed.
βΊ We also see an attractive entry in USD/JPY atπΌ 158.000 - 158.100, but are choosing EUR/USD here near the key level of π½ 1.12000.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100802A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by 4οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ + minutes! β οΈ
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SHORT (SELL)
TP
Recommended Entry
βΊ We are seeing some βSell Americaβ trading amid concerns that the US will soon resume its strikes against Iran. At the same time, there are no signs that US President Donald Trump is pushing for a deal with Iran to end the ongoing war.
βΊWe are seeing significantly higher oil prices today, with WTI up nearly 5%. The βSell Americaβ trade is limiting USD gains here. However, higher oil prices will continue to weigh on the EUR, JPY, and other currencies. In the Eurozone, more EUR must be exchanged for USD to pay for more expensive oil imports.
βΊ We are seeing sharply rising yields in the US - but also in Europe, so this effect creates no additional headwinds for EUR/USD.
βΊ The βSell Americaβ trade will fade as strong US corporate earnings continue to confirm Wall Streetβs outperformance relative to Europe.
βΊ Additionally, the FOMC minutes reinforced the hawkish tone that accompanied the Fedβs September rate hike. Most participants considered further tightening appropriate, and almost all saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Recent weaker hiring data and the surprisingly cooler-than-expected, though already outdated, PCE report will only temporarily temper expectations that further tightening is needed.
βΊ We also see an attractive entry in USD/JPY at
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100802A
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15 Minutes Meeting - SmartTrader Community
β€6π6π₯4π1πΎ1
π° VIP UPDATE SIGNAL
LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING
TP
Recommended Entry Range
π° VIP SIGNAL
SHORT EARLY NYSE TRADING
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 3/4 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
πΉ Russell 2000 (-0.5%) - is trading weaker in pre-market, as sharp gains in oil prices and higher yields weigh on stocks. As we saw yesterday, we expect stocks to stabilize and trade well above their pre-market lows. However, much will depend on oil prices. We are tightening our TP
π TP
πΉ Intel (-1.7%) - is opening lower after yesterdayβs outperformance relative to the Nasdaq 100 / chip stocks. Uncertainty over INTCβs involvement in Muskβs Terafab AI chip complex persists and will likely cause INTC to temporarily fall below 110.00. This is compounded by broader profit-taking, as higher oil prices and another surge in yields have dampened risk sentiment.
πΉ Meta (+1.1%) - is opening very well after some profit-taking yesterday, but faces an unfavorable sentiment environment, primarily due to high oil prices. META continues to offer significant upside potential, but will likely remain mostly in a volatile sideways range for a while longer.
πΉ Nvidia (-0.7%) - continues to see some profit-taking and is opening in a range where we want to re-enter. NVDA remains bullish regardless and will continue to receive very positive analyst calls - such as todayβs call from Citi, which again urged investors to βBUYβ Nvidia and sees significant upside potential in the fourth quarter. We are making a re-entry and tightening our TP.
π TP
πΉ SK Hynix (-1.0%) - traded well above our TP after hours, but has since given back those gains and is now opening around 1% lower. We have a very small position and had expected continued high volatility. SKHY offers significant upside potential following its recent weakness.
π TP
βΊ We are buying the dip in NVDA. However, NVDA will be volatile at the opening and fluctuate around 234.00, allowing us to find an entry slightly below 234.00 as well.
βΊ We are selling the very strong opening in (ONLY VIP
Nvidia (NVDA): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by ~65 β 75x (6,500%β7,500%) β 1/2 position size.
(ONLY VIPπ )
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100803A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26100804A
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ββββββββββββββ
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Gold (XAU/USD)
TP
EUR/USD
TP
ExxonMobil (XOM) πΊπΈ
TP
Nvidia (NVDA) πΊπΈ
TP
Gold will retest 4100 and fall further as long as oil prices remain this elevated / continue to rise.
We are not currently seeing sharp losses in Gold, as investors are looking for somewhere to park their money. Bonds continue to fall, and other risk assets, including stocks, are also under pressure today from higher oil prices and further gains in yields.
Gold has become more of a safe haven again - even in an environment of sharply rising yields. We are tightening our TP here and would prefer to close our position soon, as we can continue to find good / even better entries.
We are also adjusting the TPs for our XOM and EUR/USD positions. There is absolutely no reason (!) to panic, but we want to work with tighter TPs.
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