πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
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Independent market research using in-depth fundamental & sentiment analysis for active traders. Fully transparent.

Educational content - not personalised financial advice; Past performance is not a guarantee

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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ EUR/USD
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…1.11910 - 1.11960

β–Ί The USD is correcting slightly after very strong recent gains, including yesterday’s advance, pushed it to an 18-month high.

β–Ί Further cooling in the chip sector and Big Tech has temporarily reduced support for the USD from expectations that the US economy will outperform Europe / Asia. The IMF warned of a potential crash in AI stocks that could spread across global markets and threaten global financial stability. In its semiannual Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF highlighted the extremely high valuations of AI companies, alongside their growing debt burdens, as one reason why risks in the system are β€œelevated.” The IMF expects global economic growth of 3.1% this year. That is above its July forecast of 3.0%, but well below the 3.5% expansion in 2025. Selling in AI / chip stocks dragged the Korean stock market sharply lower today, with the market closing down almost 5.5%. We see high valuations but no extreme overvaluation - so while the risk exists, we do not see investors buying blindly.

β–Ί We saw a solid start to earnings season, although JPM posted a rare earnings miss. The big winner is Goldman Sachs - the stock is trading almost 3.5% higher after significantly beating earnings expectations (we are LONG).

β–Ί A temporary decline in oil prices helped yields ease after their recent surge - down 5 basis points today. Investors are becoming slightly more cautious on the USD ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data. The PCE data released in August showed cooler inflation than expected, but was already outdated. The upcoming CPI data will likely show that inflationary pressure has intensified.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26101301A


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SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP
βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry βœ…near/above 4185


β–Ί Gold benefited from temporarily lower oil prices as investors assessed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies entering global markets. However, with Russian refinery outages up by 3 million bpd from a year earlier, Moscow’s ability to increase production is limited.

β–Ί Gold also benefited from a slight correction in the USD following very strong gains over previous sessions and ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data.

β–Ί We also see slightly lower yields and stronger demand for safe havens (which also pushed bond prices higher). This comes amid growing concerns about an AI bubble, after the IMF warned of very high valuations and a potential shock to global financial markets if AI stock prices were to fall sharply.

β–Ί Overall, however, risk sentiment has not deteriorated. Earnings season also got off to a solid start. Goldman Sachs in particular significantly beat earnings expectations thanks to strong trading revenue - exactly as we predicted.

β–Ί Silver is trading slightly lower today, while gold is currently up around 0.3% and hovering near 4185. We are working with a relatively tight SL πŸ”‘

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 0.12-0.15x (12%-15%) - 2/3 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101302A


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πŸ”Ή NYSE OPENING UPDATE πŸ”Ή


πŸ”° VIP UPDATE SIGNAL πŸ•―
BUY EARLY NYSE TRADING πŸ”ΌNvidia (NVDA) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ HIGH VOLATILITY; 3/5 position size
TP βœ… @: 231.03

Recommended Entry Range βœ…222.00 - 223.40


πŸ”Ή Nasdaq 100 (-0.7%) - is underperforming as AI stocks extend their losses, after the IMF heightened concerns about a potential correction and high valuations. Losses are concentrated in the AI sector. More stocks are advancing than declining in New York, also supported by a solid start to earnings season. We found a good / perfect re-entry overnight / during Asian trading. We expect tech stocks to stabilize. We are keeping our current TP (
βœ… @: 30714.70 | 30914.70 future).

πŸ”Ή Russell 2000 (+0.1%) - is trading slightly higher but continues to hover around 2800. Losses in the tech sector / generally riskier stocks are also weighing somewhat on small caps. Most sectors are trading in the green in New York. We are tightening our TP by 13 points.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 2821.70


πŸ”Ή ExxonMobil (+0.6%) - is opening strongly after some pre-market losses. We see room for a short-term correction, but the energy sector continues to benefit from concerns that the situation in the Middle East could worsen rather than improve. We are working with a tighter TP βœ….
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 171.21

πŸ”Ή Goldman Sachs (+3.7%) - is opening well above our TP βœ… (900.49), delivering a huge profit. The stock is leading bank shares higher. We saw the strong revenue driven by high demand for equity trading that we expected. Overall, GS significantly exceeded third-quarter revenue expectations. Trading revenue was the key driver, supported by strong contributions from its own investment banking operations, as well as asset and wealth management. GS is opening near 925 (!)
⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED TP βš οΈπŸ“Έ

πŸ”Ή Intel (-1.4%) - is in oversold territory, but the IMF warning has prolonged the recent underperformance in the chip / AI infrastructure sector.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 113.20

πŸ”Ή Meta (-0.8%) - gave back some of yesterday’s strong gains as AI stocks undergo a slight correction. We generally see a temporary rotation into more defensive sectors, particularly financials, after banks unofficially kicked off the new earnings season. Truist issued one of its strongest β€œBUY” recommendations for META and sharply raised its price target to $1,000 (from $763).
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 758.18
⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED TP βš οΈπŸ“Έ

πŸ”Ή Nvidia (-0.9%) - is becoming very attractive again after its recent decline. Investment banks continue to urge investors to buy the AI leader - today, Bank of America. NVDA is trading in a range where we want to increase our position, with strong support between 221 - 224.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 231.03

πŸ”Ή SK Hynix (-4.8%) - is very volatile and is opening sharply lower, with memory stocks suffering the biggest losses in the AI sector. We have a very small position, which is now deep in loss (or has already been closed). We are looking for an exit and lowering our TP. SKHY is very attractive at its current price for a medium-term holding. I see potential for a gain of more than 20% over the next three months.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 161.49


β–Ί There is significant rebound potential in the AI / chip sector - particularly in NVDA, MU - as well as other memory chip stocks, including SKHY, AMD, INTC, and MRVL. However, our tech exposure is already high, as we are also LONG in the Nasdaq. The sell-off has gone too far here after the IMF report triggered market panic. We are also seeing a rotation into sectors outside tech - particularly financials, but also consumer and energy stocks.

β–Ί We can make a re-entry in NVDA here and are looking for further entries. SPCX also remains bullish but is opening lower. We may look for a re-entry in SPCX below 160.00.

Nvidia (NVDA): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 90 – 100x (9000%–10,000%) – 3/5 position size.



position code / 100% Transparency - 26101202A


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πŸš€ Trade of the Day πŸš€

βœ… 12.10 - GS - LONG ↗️

Average movement in our favor: + 2.70% πŸ“ˆ

❗️You could have increased your capital by: +4.15% πŸ“ˆβ—οΈ

Example:
↗️ Initial Capital: $5,000 β€”> +$207.43 Profit with just this Trade (+4.15% πŸ“ˆβ—οΈπŸš€)


πŸ“Š Last 5 closed Stocks trades
βœ… 08.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ
βœ… 08.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ
βœ… 09.10 - SPCX - LONG ↗️
βœ… 09.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ
βœ… 12.10 - GS - LONG ↗️

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πŸ”° VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility post earnings; 3/5 trade size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…(ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)


β–Ί We secured a huge profit with GS at the NYSE opening. Wall Street banks opened sharply higher following strong earnings reports - although JPM posted a rare miss on earnings per share and revenue, but provided a positive outlook.

β–Ί GS was the big winner.

β–Ί After the strong gains, we saw some typical profit-taking. (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) has now turned negative despite beating analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings. (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) raised its (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

β–Ί Rotation back into tech stocks - as we expected - reduced gains in financials.


(ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)



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This stock fell a bit further offering a good entry now.


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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑 ⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) Recommended Entry βœ…near/above 4185 β–Ί Gold benefited from temporarily lower oil prices as investors assessed the prospect…
⚑️ LIGHTNING - RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
SL
πŸ”‘ @: 4178.21
TP
βœ… @: 4156.16
⚠️ TP ALREADY TRIGGERED βš οΈπŸ“Έ


EUR/USD
TP
βœ… @: 1.11757

ExxonMobil (XOM) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
TP βœ… @: 171.51

Intel (INTC) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
TP βœ… @: 109.39


We are updating some of our positions. We saw a rebound in AI stocks, with NVDA finding support in the range we expected. The Nasdaq 100 also significantly reduced its losses as chip stocks recovered.

META hit our TP βœ…πŸ“Έ (as did GS πŸ“Έ at the NYSE opening - the stock actually opened much higher at 923, so you may have closed significantly higher). META jumped almost 4% again, also supporting the Nasdaq.

We are already securing profits on Gold, but see further downside from here. Silver is down almost 1.5%.


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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP
βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…4158 - 4162

β–Ί We set a nearly perfect TP βœ…πŸ“Έ for our gold position. Gold found some buyers as oil prices stabilized. It really is all about oil prices and the USD.

β–Ί Gold also benefited somewhat from demand for safe havens, as the stock market remains mixed.
We see no signs of easing geopolitical tensions and little room for a significant near-term decline in oil prices, even as the Trump administration actively seeks ways to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans, including the Trump administration, are panicking over terrible poll numbers. These suggest that Democrats could win both the House and the Senate, making Trump a β€œlame duck” - at least on domestic policy.

β–Ί We can remain SHORT in Gold and also expect some concerns that tomorrow’s CPI data will show increased inflationary pressure.

β–Ί We continue to expect the USD to remain in demand.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 0.12-0.15x (12%-15%) - 2/3 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101304A

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Congrats on another round of beautiful gold profits! πŸŸ‘πŸ’΅

We re-entered in the perfect range.

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πŸ”° VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Citigroup (C) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility post earnings; 1/2 trade size
SL πŸ”‘ @: 124.97
TP βœ… @: 128.21
⚠️ SL ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

Recommended Entry βœ…125.60 - 125.90


πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Morgan Stanley (MS) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility & risk pre earnings; 3/5 trade size
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…186.40 - 186.70


β–Ί Profit-taking in C continued and was substantial. We can make a small re-entry slightly below 126.00 and work with a tighter TP and a tight SL. We saw capital flowing back into tech stocks, with several key names recovering, including NVDA, META, AVGO, and INTC. The chip sector delivered the strong rebound we expected.

β–Ί We expect a very strong Q3 earnings report from Morgan Stanley tomorrow and are therefore buying today’s weakness in MS ahead of earnings. Investors are concerned about MS’s weak share price performance following the investment bank’s strong Q2 report.

β–Ί I expect the report to be strong enough to support a higher opening tomorrow. MS is also trading well below its levels before the last earnings report, even though the Wall Street bank delivered strong results. MS will report very strong revenue from equity trading, along with strong results in investment banking and wealth management.

β–Ί Overall, I consider financials very attractive after their recent weak performance.

β–Ί Dovish comments from Fed official Williams weighed somewhat on the financial sector - which they should not have - and briefly pushed the USD lower (which also helped gold). The overall mixed performance and weakness in AI stocks have weighed on investment banks.

Citigroup (C): Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 130 - 140 (13,000% - 14,000%) - 1/2 position size

Morgan Stanley (MS): Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 130 -140 (13,000% - 14,000%) - 3/5 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101303B
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101305A


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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑 ⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) Recommended Entry Range βœ…4158 - 4162 β–Ί We set a nearly perfect TP βœ…πŸ“Έ for our gold position. Gold found some buyers as…
⚑️ RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
TP
βœ… @: 4153.06
OR
CLOSE SOON βœ… @: near/below 4155

We are setting a tight TP βœ… or will close the position in profit shortly. We see further downside from here, as oil prices remain elevated and concerns persist that the upcoming CPI data will show increased inflationary pressure. Dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, who sees no urgent need for interest rate hikes and expects only one increase, temporarily weighed on the USD and pushed gold back above 4160, after our position had initially moved well into profit following our entry.

However, we can find better trade setups here.



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πŸ”Ή FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days πŸ”Ή

πŸ—“ August 25 - October 13
πŸ’― Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


πŸ“Š 5 - Week -Performance: August 25 - October 06
(= 25 full trading days)

πŸ”Ή Number of Trades/Signals: 139 (excl. 4 open p.)
πŸ”Ή Number of Trades Won: 126
πŸ”Ή Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 90.6% πŸ”½ πŸ†

Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (August 24)
Added to statistics: 2/5* - 40%
Signal Accuracy (October 06)
(*3 open positions: NVDA, BTC/USD & US2000)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


πŸ”Ή The last 5 trading days: October 07 - October 13 πŸ”Ή

βœ… 7.10 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 89.99)
βœ… 7.10 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 51249.90 me or similar)
βœ… 7.10 - TSLA - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 375.57 me | or 376.61)
βœ… 7.10 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4128.13)
✴️ 7.10 - SKHY - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 161.49 πŸ”„

4/5 - (1 open position)

βœ… 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 4111.72)
βœ… 8.10 - EUR/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 1.11870)
βœ… 8.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 167.17)
🟑❌8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP- 4116.11 me | or clsd)
βœ… 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 30958.90 me | or 30942.90 | overall - in-profit)
βœ… 8.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 167.57 me | or 167.46)

5/6 = 83.3% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


We closed our previously open META position today, while three more positions from the previous week are now included as open positions in our rolling five-week statistics. We are looking for exits later this week and expect more market activity tomorrow following the CPI release and as earnings reports continue. We will also use tighter stop-loss levels.

BTC
had a strong session today, and we secured a phenomenal re-entry in NVDA. For now, we are tightening the TP
βœ… on our Russell 2000 position - πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 2812.90 πŸ”„

Our signal accuracy / success rate is little changed and stands at an exceptional 90.6% πŸ†
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πŸ”Ή OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days πŸ”Ή

βœ… 9.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 31054.90)
βœ… 9.10 - SPCX - LONG ↗️ (TP - 166.53)
βœ… 9.10 - XAG/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 60.811)
βœ… 9.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 168.56)
βœ… 9.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 1.32256)

5/5 = 100% πŸ’Ž Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)

✴️ 12.10 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit + re-entry in profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 30714.70 (30914.70 future)
✴️ 12.10 - XOM - SHORT β†˜οΈ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 171.51 πŸ”„
βœ… 12.10 - GS - LONG ↗️ (TP - 910.49 me | or 900.49 + gap) πŸ”„πŸ“Έ
βœ… 12.10 - XAG/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 59.99) πŸ“Έ
✴️ 12.10 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 158.697

1/5 - (4 open positions)


πŸ”ΉTODAY'S TRADES (TUESDAY) πŸ”Ή

✴️
13.10 - EUR/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (open - off-profit)
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 1.11757
βœ… 13.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 4156.16) πŸ“Έ
❌ 13.10 - C - LONG ↗️ (SL - 124.97 | +re-entry)
βœ… 13.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT β†˜οΈ (TP - 4153.06) πŸ“Έ
✴️ 13.10 - MS - LONG ↗️ (open - near break-even))
πŸ‘‰ SL πŸ”‘ @: 184.39 | TP βœ… @: 189.43

2/5 - (2- open positions)


β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”


It was another mixed session, with weakness during Asian / pre-market trading and stabilization during US trading. Our exposure remains too high, but we expect more trading activity in Wednesday’s session, giving us opportunities to reduce it further.


As always, very strong precious metals trading over the past few sessions, with two successful Gold trades πŸ“Έ in a difficult precious metals market + the Silver closing πŸ“Έ during Asian trading. We reduced the total number of open stock positions somewhat and secured some strong exits, including META πŸ“Έ and GS πŸ“Έ. On the other side was C πŸ“Έ, which saw significant profit-taking despite a strong earnings report.

We saw a temporarily weaker USD today, but expect the USD to remain in demand.

Overall, it was still a very profitable session for us πŸ’΅
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Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)

♦️ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) – 01:30 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ PPI YoY SEP – 01:30 (reported: 🟒)
♦️ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB President Lagarde Speech – 02:10
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Balance of Trade SEP – 03:00 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Exports YoY SEP – 03:00 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Imports YoY SEP – 03:00 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ BoE Gov Bailey Speech – 05:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Wholesale Prices SEP (MoM/YoY) – 06:00 (reported: 🟒)
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ BoC Gov Macklem Speech – 06:05
♦️ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί ECB President Lagarde Speech – 08:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Bowman Speech – 09:40
♦️ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Core Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) – 12:30
♦️ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) – 12:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ CPI SEP (MoM/YoY) – 12:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Barkin Speech – 17:30
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Fed Beige Book – 18:00
πŸ”Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/09 – 20:30

πŸ”Έ = Event of medium/high importance
♦️= Event of very high importance
πŸ”΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
🟑 = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
🟒 = Data better than analysts' expectations

---

Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)

β˜€οΈ ASML (ASML) πŸ‡³πŸ‡± (reported: 🟒)
β˜€οΈ Bank of America (BAC) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
β˜€οΈ Morgan Stanley (MS) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
β˜€οΈ BlackRock (BLK) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
β˜€οΈ Fastenal (FAST) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
β˜€οΈ State Street (STT) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

---

SmartTraderβ„’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ EUR/USD TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) Recommended Entry Range βœ…1.11910 - 1.11960 β–Ί The USD is correcting slightly after very strong recent gains, including yesterday’s advance, pushed it to an 18-month high. β–Ί Further cooling in…
⚑️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
EUR/USD
TP
βœ… @: 1.11882
OR
CLOSE SOON βœ… @: 1.11865 - 1.11895

CPI data will be released in just over an hour and will be a major market driver, including for the USD. We have LONG USD exposure through two positions, as we also hold a USD/JPY LONG, and are reducing that exposure.

We are setting a very tight TP here to exit with a small profit and want to close before the CPI data release.


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🌎 SmartTrader around the globe 🌎

Noah
πŸ“ Austria πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ή

β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”

πŸ† One overnight Goldman Sachs trade. €281.28 in profit.
Opened Monday evening. Closed just after Tuesday’s NYSE open.



πŸ“ˆ Goldman Sachs (GS) | LONG
β–Ί +2.63% price movement
β–Ί €281.28 profit before swap fees / €279.51 after swaps


Noah didn’t have to find this opportunity himself.

He followed a SmartTrader VIP πŸ’Ž signal with a clear entry level, clear take-profit target, and an explanation of WHY we were taking the trade and EXACTLY what price move we expected.

That’s what SmartTrader VIP delivers: actionable trading opportunities backed by clear and in-depth market analysis, so you understand the reasoning behind each trade while trading profitably.


‼️ Over 90% our predictions have been correct over the past four months.


Congrats, Noah - thanks for sharing your result! πŸ‘


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Still watching from the trial channel?

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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)
TP
βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…4079 - 4087


β–Ί The CPI report came in as we expected, once again showing that extremely high fuel prices had a significant impact on consumer prices. YoY core inflation came in at 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%. That is a clear acceleration from 2.4% in August. Particularly shocking for the market is monthly headline inflation, which rose to 0.6% - even though this was in line with expectations (YoY 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected).

β–Ί Overall, this outcome was foreseeable, even though the market is now reacting sharply. At least it shows that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is independent - these figures represent a major headwind for Republicans just weeks before the midterm elections.

β–Ί The market reaction has already gone far, and we are trading the rebound. Gains in the USD and losses in precious metals have already been substantial. This outcome was to be expected - it shows that many market participants apparently allowed themselves to be misled by the PCE data.

β–Ί We are cautiously going LONG in gold here (against the market!) and may improve our entry if gold falls significantly further. Silver is actually slightly more attractive for a dip purchase here, but is likely to remain very volatile and has also still more downside potential.

β–Ί It is entirely possible that gold could dip toward 4050 or last week’s low. However, gold will attempt to recover sooner than the market expects.

β–Ί The USD is trading at its highest level in more than 18 months. Our USD/JPY LONG position easily hit our TP βœ…. EUR/USD also fell well below our TP βœ… (or closing range). We also expect stocks to stabilize soon. The Nasdaq 100 should find support near πŸ”Ό 30350, although a decline to 30300 (= 30500 Dec future) cannot be ruled out.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 0.10-0.12x (10%-12%) - 1/2 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101401A


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Gold EXACTLY stabilized in our entry-range - a crazily accurate prediction against the market.


1⃣ Get trade recommendation πŸ“²
2⃣ Place your trade πŸ’»
3⃣ Receive position update πŸ“²
πŸ‘Έ Congratulations πŸ’°

WRITE US NOW πŸ“¨ - JOIN SMARTTRADER VIP πŸ’Ž
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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•― LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑 ⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size SL πŸ”‘ @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž) Recommended Entry Range βœ…4079 - 4087 β–Ί The CPI report came in as we expected, once again showing that extremely high fuel prices…
⚑️ RAPID UPDATE πŸ•―
Gold (XAU/USD) 🟑
SL
πŸ”‘ @: 4094.73
TP βœ… @: 4117.66
⚠️ SL ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

We are setting an in-profit SL for gold here. If it is triggered - which is quite possible given how tight it is - we can find a new entry slightly lower. We are also tightening our TP a little.

Gold found buyers exactly in our expected support range - an almost unrealistically perfect prediction against a market gripped by panic selling.


⏱️ Signal / Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by 1️⃣5️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
SHORT (SELL) πŸ”½ DAX (GER_40) πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TP
βœ… @: 25321.60 (25352.60 GDAXI)
⚠️ ALREADY NEAR TP ⚠️

Recommended Entry βœ…near/above 25415
πŸ“Œ GDAXI
30 points lower

β–Ί The EUR’s recent sharp weakness (particularly against the USD) provides fragile support for the DAX.

β–Ί The DAX is up around 0.45% today, even after the latest decline following the US CPI data. The CAC_40 is around 0.5% higher.

β–Ί We also see some β€œSell America” rotation, but the gains are primarily driven by the weak EUR - which is viewed as positive for Europe.

β–Ί While we generally remain constructive and see upside potential for global stocks, we are selling the DAX’s current outperformance.

DAX (GER_40): Multiply your "standard (EUR/USD)" trade size by ~2–2.5 (200%–250%) - 2/3 position size


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101402A


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Our DAX position is very close to TP here already.


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πŸ”Ή NYSE OPENING UPDATE πŸ”Ή


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SELL EARLY NYSE TRADING πŸ”½Apple (AAPL) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ…345.60 - 346.20


πŸ”Ή Nasdaq 100 (-0.65%) | Russell 2000 (-1.1%) - are trading lower. Wall Street had a very positive pre-market session. Many investors were apparently hoping that the CPI data would not yet reflect the sharp rise in fuel prices - much like the PCE data, which we described as very outdated but which the market apparently used to guide its expectations. However, the figures showed that inflationary pressures had increased, and faster than analysts expected. Nevertheless, we expect markets to be able to stabilize. Given the extremely high oil and fuel prices, it would actually have been a major surprise if inflation had not accelerated further. We are tightening our TPs:

Nasdaq 100 (US100) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 30669.70 | 30869.90 Future
Russell 2000 (US2000) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 2803.30


πŸ”Ή ExxonMobil (+0.4%) - continues to benefit from high oil prices. A strong USD is creating some short-term headwinds for oil prices. We are tightening our TP.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 172.52

πŸ”Ή Intel (-2.5%) - staged a very impressive rebound yesterday, but is opening significantly lower again following the hotter-than-expected inflation report. We are working with a tighter TP. We expect dip buying.
πŸ‘‰ TP βœ… @: 109.79

πŸ”Ή Morgan Stanley (-2.6%) - opens lower, despite beating estimates for both earnings per share and revenue on very strong trading revenue. However, sentiment has soured. While trading revenue, investment banking, and wealth management were strong (as we expected, although less positive than GS), there were also some areas of weakness, such as fixed-income trading revenue. Our position will close at the SL at the open.

πŸ”Ή Nvidia (-1.0%) - is giving back yesterday’s gains (+1.0%) in pre-market trading for now, but remains above our re-entry range from yesterday. The hotter-than-expected inflation report and growing concerns about interest rate hikes are weighing on growth stocks. NVDA has plenty of upside potential. Today, investment bank Mizuho is also recommending buying, or more specifically, overweighting NVDA. We are keeping our TP (βœ… @: 231.03).

πŸ”Ή SK Hynix (-3.7%) - remains under pressure from panic selling. Since we hold only a very small position, we can wait for a better exit. In the near term, there could be some further downside toward ~$140 (in New York). Once risk sentiment stabilizes, SKHY will rebound sharply.


β–Ί The market was apparently too optimistic about the inflation data. This is not a good open or pre-market session for our portfolio. However, we expect stabilization, supported in part by renewed dip buying, including in chip stocks.

β–Ί We see a rotation into defensive stocks and generally cautious market sentiment, which benefits AAPL. AAPL is trading around 1.1% higher at slightly above 345.00 in the late pre-market session. We expect some cooling and resistance in the 345.00 - 346.50 range.

Apple (AAPL): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 80-90x (8,000%-9,000%) - 2/3 position size.



position code / 100% Transparency - 26101403A


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We identified exactly where AAPL will hit resistance.


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πŸ”° FREE VIP SIGNAL πŸ•―
LONG (BUY) πŸ”Ό Dell Technologies (DELL) πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 position size
TP βœ… @: (ONLY VIP πŸ’Ž)

Recommended Entry Range βœ… 510.50 - 512.00 πŸ”„

β–Ί Although we are aiming to reduce our exposure to the technology sector, we are buying the very sharp sell-off in DELL. Chip stocks, and particularly AI infrastructure stocks, fell sharply today as hotter-than-expected inflation data created additional headwinds.

β–Ί At now more than -10% (!), however, the sell-off in DELL went very far and was accelerated by panic selling following the recent losses.

β–Ί We are going against the market here and buying this very sharp dip. Dell will remain volatile and has also a bit more downside potential but has more potential to recover some of its steep losses later today.

Dell Technologies (DELL): Multiply your β€œstandard (EUR/USD)” position size by approximately 25–30x (2,500%–3,000%) – 1/2 position size.


position code / 100% Transparency - 26101404A



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DELL extended losses as concerns mount that the Fed will raise interest rates after all, despite very high energy prices, to combat elevated inflation.


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