π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ EUR/USD
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
1.11910 - 1.11960
βΊ The USD is correcting slightly after very strong recent gains, including yesterdayβs advance, pushed it to an 18-month high.
βΊ Further cooling in the chip sector and Big Tech has temporarily reduced support for the USD from expectations that the US economy will outperform Europe / Asia. The IMF warned of a potential crash in AI stocks that could spread across global markets and threaten global financial stability. In its semiannual Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF highlighted the extremely high valuations of AI companies, alongside their growing debt burdens, as one reason why risks in the system are βelevated.β The IMF expects global economic growth of 3.1% this year. That is above its July forecast of 3.0%, but well below the 3.5% expansion in 2025. Selling in AI / chip stocks dragged the Korean stock market sharply lower today, with the market closing down almost 5.5%. We see high valuations but no extreme overvaluation - so while the risk exists, we do not see investors buying blindly.
βΊ We saw a solid start to earnings season, although JPM posted a rare earnings miss. The big winner is Goldman Sachs - the stock is trading almost 3.5% higher after significantly beating earnings expectations (we are LONG).
βΊ A temporary decline in oil prices helped yields ease after their recent surge - down 5 basis points today. Investors are becoming slightly more cautious on the USD ahead of tomorrowβs CPI data. The PCE data released in August showed cooler inflation than expected, but was already outdated. The upcoming CPI data will likely show that inflationary pressure has intensified.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101301A
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SHORT (SELL)
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ The USD is correcting slightly after very strong recent gains, including yesterdayβs advance, pushed it to an 18-month high.
βΊ Further cooling in the chip sector and Big Tech has temporarily reduced support for the USD from expectations that the US economy will outperform Europe / Asia. The IMF warned of a potential crash in AI stocks that could spread across global markets and threaten global financial stability. In its semiannual Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF highlighted the extremely high valuations of AI companies, alongside their growing debt burdens, as one reason why risks in the system are βelevated.β The IMF expects global economic growth of 3.1% this year. That is above its July forecast of 3.0%, but well below the 3.5% expansion in 2025. Selling in AI / chip stocks dragged the Korean stock market sharply lower today, with the market closing down almost 5.5%. We see high valuations but no extreme overvaluation - so while the risk exists, we do not see investors buying blindly.
βΊ We saw a solid start to earnings season, although JPM posted a rare earnings miss. The big winner is Goldman Sachs - the stock is trading almost 3.5% higher after significantly beating earnings expectations (we are LONG).
βΊ A temporary decline in oil prices helped yields ease after their recent surge - down 5 basis points today. Investors are becoming slightly more cautious on the USD ahead of tomorrowβs CPI data. The PCE data released in August showed cooler inflation than expected, but was already outdated. The upcoming CPI data will likely show that inflationary pressure has intensified.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101301A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entryβ
near/above 4185
βΊ Gold benefited from temporarily lower oil prices as investors assessed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies entering global markets. However, with Russian refinery outages up by 3 million bpd from a year earlier, Moscowβs ability to increase production is limited.
βΊ Gold also benefited from a slight correction in the USD following very strong gains over previous sessions and ahead of tomorrowβs CPI data.
βΊ We also see slightly lower yields and stronger demand for safe havens (which also pushed bond prices higher). This comes amid growing concerns about an AI bubble, after the IMF warned of very high valuations and a potential shock to global financial markets if AI stock prices were to fall sharply.
βΊ Overall, however, risk sentiment has not deteriorated. Earnings season also got off to a solid start. Goldman Sachs in particular significantly beat earnings expectations thanks to strong trading revenue - exactly as we predicted.
βΊ Silver is trading slightly lower today, while gold is currently up around 0.3% and hovering near 4185. We are working with a relatively tight SL π
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101302A
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Please make sure you NEVER miss a Gold/Silver trade. We have won more than 93% of our Gold/Silver trades this year.
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SHORT (SELL)
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry
βΊ Gold benefited from temporarily lower oil prices as investors assessed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies entering global markets. However, with Russian refinery outages up by 3 million bpd from a year earlier, Moscowβs ability to increase production is limited.
βΊ Gold also benefited from a slight correction in the USD following very strong gains over previous sessions and ahead of tomorrowβs CPI data.
βΊ We also see slightly lower yields and stronger demand for safe havens (which also pushed bond prices higher). This comes amid growing concerns about an AI bubble, after the IMF warned of very high valuations and a potential shock to global financial markets if AI stock prices were to fall sharply.
βΊ Overall, however, risk sentiment has not deteriorated. Earnings season also got off to a solid start. Goldman Sachs in particular significantly beat earnings expectations thanks to strong trading revenue - exactly as we predicted.
βΊ Silver is trading slightly lower today, while gold is currently up around 0.3% and hovering near 4185. We are working with a relatively tight SL π
Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.12-0.15x (12%-15%) - 2/3 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101302A
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π° VIP UPDATE SIGNAL
BUY EARLY NYSE TRADING
β οΈ HIGH VOLATILITY; 3/5 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
πΉ Nasdaq 100 (-0.7%) - is underperforming as AI stocks extend their losses, after the IMF heightened concerns about a potential correction and high valuations. Losses are concentrated in the AI sector. More stocks are advancing than declining in New York, also supported by a solid start to earnings season. We found a good / perfect re-entry overnight / during Asian trading. We expect tech stocks to stabilize. We are keeping our current TP (
πΉ Russell 2000 (+0.1%) - is trading slightly higher but continues to hover around 2800. Losses in the tech sector / generally riskier stocks are also weighing somewhat on small caps. Most sectors are trading in the green in New York. We are tightening our TP by 13 points.
π TP
πΉ ExxonMobil (+0.6%) - is opening strongly after some pre-market losses. We see room for a short-term correction, but the energy sector continues to benefit from concerns that the situation in the Middle East could worsen rather than improve. We are working with a tighter TP
π TP
πΉ Goldman Sachs (+3.7%) - is opening well above our TP
πΉ Intel (-1.4%) - is in oversold territory, but the IMF warning has prolonged the recent underperformance in the chip / AI infrastructure sector.
π TP
πΉ Meta (-0.8%) - gave back some of yesterdayβs strong gains as AI stocks undergo a slight correction. We generally see a temporary rotation into more defensive sectors, particularly financials, after banks unofficially kicked off the new earnings season. Truist issued one of its strongest βBUYβ recommendations for META and sharply raised its price target to $1,000 (from $763).
π TP
πΉ Nvidia (-0.9%) - is becoming very attractive again after its recent decline. Investment banks continue to urge investors to buy the AI leader - today, Bank of America. NVDA is trading in a range where we want to increase our position, with strong support between 221 - 224.
π TP
πΉ SK Hynix (-4.8%) - is very volatile and is opening sharply lower, with memory stocks suffering the biggest losses in the AI sector. We have a very small position, which is now deep in loss (or has already been closed). We are looking for an exit and lowering our TP. SKHY is very attractive at its current price for a medium-term holding. I see potential for a gain of more than 20% over the next three months.
π TP
βΊ There is significant rebound potential in the AI / chip sector - particularly in NVDA, MU - as well as other memory chip stocks, including SKHY, AMD, INTC, and MRVL. However, our tech exposure is already high, as we are also LONG in the Nasdaq. The sell-off has gone too far here after the IMF report triggered market panic. We are also seeing a rotation into sectors outside tech - particularly financials, but also consumer and energy stocks.
βΊ We can make a re-entry in NVDA here and are looking for further entries. SPCX also remains bullish but is opening lower. We may look for a re-entry in SPCX below 160.00.
Nvidia (NVDA): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approx. 90 β 100x (9000%β10,000%) β 3/5 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101202A
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β 12.10 - GS - LONG βοΈ
Average movement in our favor: + 2.70%
βοΈ You could have increased your capital by: +4.15%π βοΈ
Example:βοΈ Initial Capital: $5,000 β> +$207.43 Profit with just this Trade (+4.15%π βοΈ π )
β 08.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ
β 08.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ
β 09.10 - SPCX - LONG βοΈ
β 09.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ
β 12.10 - GS - LONG βοΈ
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π° VIP SIGNAL π―
LONG (BUY)πΌ (ONLY VIP π ) πΊπΈ
β οΈ Elevated volatility post earnings; 3/5 trade size
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
(ONLY VIP π )
βΊ We secured a huge profit with GS at the NYSE opening. Wall Street banks opened sharply higher following strong earnings reports - although JPM posted a rare miss on earnings per share and revenue, but provided a positive outlook.
βΊ GS was the big winner.
βΊ After the strong gains, we saw some typical profit-taking. (ONLY VIPπ ) has now turned negative despite beating analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings. (ONLY VIP π ) raised its (ONLY VIP π )
βΊ Rotation back into tech stocks - as we expected - reduced gains in financials.
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by: 1οΈβ£ 3οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ + minutes! β οΈ
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This stock fell a bit further offering a good entry now.
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LONG (BUY)
β οΈ Elevated volatility post earnings; 3/5 trade size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ We secured a huge profit with GS at the NYSE opening. Wall Street banks opened sharply higher following strong earnings reports - although JPM posted a rare miss on earnings per share and revenue, but provided a positive outlook.
βΊ GS was the big winner.
βΊ After the strong gains, we saw some typical profit-taking. (ONLY VIP
βΊ Rotation back into tech stocks - as we expected - reduced gains in financials.
(ONLY VIPπ )
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
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This stock fell a bit further offering a good entry now.
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π¬π§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π― SHORT (SELL) π½ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘ β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size SL π @: (ONLY VIP π ) TP β
@: (ONLY VIP π ) Recommended Entry β
near/above 4185 βΊ Gold benefited from temporarily lower oil prices as investors assessed the prospectβ¦
Gold (XAU/USD)
SL π @: 4178.21
TP
EUR/USD
TP
ExxonMobil (XOM) πΊπΈ
TP
Intel (INTC) πΊπΈ
TP
We are updating some of our positions. We saw a rebound in AI stocks, with NVDA finding support in the range we expected. The Nasdaq 100 also significantly reduced its losses as chip stocks recovered.
META hit our TP
We are already securing profits on Gold, but see further downside from here. Silver is down almost 1.5%.
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
4158 - 4162
βΊ We set a nearly perfect TPβ
πΈ for our gold position. Gold found some buyers as oil prices stabilized. It really is all about oil prices and the USD.
βΊ Gold also benefited somewhat from demand for safe havens, as the stock market remains mixed.
We see no signs of easing geopolitical tensions and little room for a significant near-term decline in oil prices, even as the Trump administration actively seeks ways to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans, including the Trump administration, are panicking over terrible poll numbers. These suggest that Democrats could win both the House and the Senate, making Trump a βlame duckβ - at least on domestic policy.
βΊ We can remain SHORT in Gold and also expect some concerns that tomorrowβs CPI data will show increased inflationary pressure.
βΊ We continue to expect the USD to remain in demand.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101304A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by 8οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ + minutes! β οΈ
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ββββββββββββββ
Congrats on another round of beautiful gold profits!π‘ π΅
We re-entered in the perfect range.
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SHORT (SELL)
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ We set a nearly perfect TP
βΊ Gold also benefited somewhat from demand for safe havens, as the stock market remains mixed.
We see no signs of easing geopolitical tensions and little room for a significant near-term decline in oil prices, even as the Trump administration actively seeks ways to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans, including the Trump administration, are panicking over terrible poll numbers. These suggest that Democrats could win both the House and the Senate, making Trump a βlame duckβ - at least on domestic policy.
βΊ We can remain SHORT in Gold and also expect some concerns that tomorrowβs CPI data will show increased inflationary pressure.
βΊ We continue to expect the USD to remain in demand.
Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.12-0.15x (12%-15%) - 2/3 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101304A
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Congrats on another round of beautiful gold profits!
We re-entered in the perfect range.
Start
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β€7π5π5π₯1
π° VIP SIGNAL π―
LONG (BUY)πΌ Citigroup (C) πΊπΈ
β οΈ Elevated volatility post earnings; 1/2 trade size
SL π @: 124.97
TPβ
@: 128.21
β οΈ SL ALREADY TRIGGERED β οΈ
Recommended Entryβ
125.60 - 125.90
π° FREE VIP SIGNALπ―
LONG (BUY)πΌ Morgan Stanley (MS) πΊπΈ
β οΈ Elevated volatility & risk pre earnings; 3/5 trade size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
186.40 - 186.70
βΊ Profit-taking in C continued and was substantial. We can make a small re-entry slightly below 126.00 and work with a tighter TP and a tight SL. We saw capital flowing back into tech stocks, with several key names recovering, including NVDA, META, AVGO, and INTC. The chip sector delivered the strong rebound we expected.
βΊ We expect a very strong Q3 earnings report from Morgan Stanley tomorrow and are therefore buying todayβs weakness in MS ahead of earnings. Investors are concerned about MSβs weak share price performance following the investment bankβs strong Q2 report.
βΊ I expect the report to be strong enough to support a higher opening tomorrow. MS is also trading well below its levels before the last earnings report, even though the Wall Street bank delivered strong results. MS will report very strong revenue from equity trading, along with strong results in investment banking and wealth management.
βΊ Overall, I consider financials very attractive after their recent weak performance.
βΊ Dovish comments from Fed official Williams weighed somewhat on the financial sector - which they should not have - and briefly pushed the USD lower (which also helped gold). The overall mixed performance and weakness in AI stocks have weighed on investment banks.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101303B
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101305A
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LONG (BUY)
β οΈ Elevated volatility post earnings; 1/2 trade size
SL π @: 124.97
TP
Recommended Entry
π° FREE VIP SIGNAL
LONG (BUY)
β οΈ Elevated volatility & risk pre earnings; 3/5 trade size
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ Profit-taking in C continued and was substantial. We can make a small re-entry slightly below 126.00 and work with a tighter TP and a tight SL. We saw capital flowing back into tech stocks, with several key names recovering, including NVDA, META, AVGO, and INTC. The chip sector delivered the strong rebound we expected.
βΊ We expect a very strong Q3 earnings report from Morgan Stanley tomorrow and are therefore buying todayβs weakness in MS ahead of earnings. Investors are concerned about MSβs weak share price performance following the investment bankβs strong Q2 report.
βΊ I expect the report to be strong enough to support a higher opening tomorrow. MS is also trading well below its levels before the last earnings report, even though the Wall Street bank delivered strong results. MS will report very strong revenue from equity trading, along with strong results in investment banking and wealth management.
βΊ Overall, I consider financials very attractive after their recent weak performance.
βΊ Dovish comments from Fed official Williams weighed somewhat on the financial sector - which they should not have - and briefly pushed the USD lower (which also helped gold). The overall mixed performance and weakness in AI stocks have weighed on investment banks.
Citigroup (C): Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 130 - 140 (13,000% - 14,000%) - 1/2 position size
Morgan Stanley (MS): Multiply your usual lot size by ~ 130 -140 (13,000% - 14,000%) - 3/5 position size
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101303B
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101305A
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π¦
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β€5π3πΎ3π₯2π2π€2
π¬π§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π― SHORT (SELL) π½ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘ β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size SL π @: (ONLY VIP π ) TP β
@: (ONLY VIP π ) Recommended Entry Range β
4158 - 4162 βΊ We set a nearly perfect TP β
πΈ for our gold position. Gold found some buyers asβ¦
Gold (XAU/USD)
TP
OR
CLOSE SOON
We are setting a tight TP
However, we can find better trade setups here.
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π₯6β€5π4πΎ3
π August 25 - October 13
ββββββββββββββ
(= 25 full trading days)
πΉ Number of Trades/Signals: 139 (excl. 4 open p.)
πΉ Number of Trades Won: 126
πΉ Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 90.6%
Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100%
Added to statistics: 2/5* - 40% Signal Accuracy (October 06)
(*3 open positions: NVDA, BTC/USD & US2000)
ββββββββββββββ
β 7.10 - USOIL - LONG βοΈ (TP - 89.99)
β 7.10 - US30 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 51249.90 me or similar)
β 7.10 - TSLA - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 375.57 me | or 376.61)
β 7.10 - XAU/USD - LONG βοΈ (TP - 4128.13)
β΄οΈ 7.10 - SKHY - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
4/5 - (1 open position)
β 8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 4111.72)
β 8.10 - EUR/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 1.11870)
β 8.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 167.17)
π‘β8.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP- 4116.11 me | or clsd)
β 8.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 30958.90 me | or 30942.90 | overall - in-profit)
β 8.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 167.57 me | or 167.46)
5/6 = 83.3% Signal Accuracy (Success Rate)
ββββββββββββββ
We closed our previously open META position today, while three more positions from the previous week are now included as open positions in our rolling five-week statistics. We are looking for exits later this week and expect more market activity tomorrow following the CPI release and as earnings reports continue. We will also use tighter stop-loss levels.
BTC had a strong session today, and we secured a phenomenal re-entry in NVDA. For now, we are tightening the TP
Our signal accuracy / success rate is little changed and stands at an exceptional 90.6%
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β 9.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (TP - 31054.90)
β 9.10 - SPCX - LONG βοΈ (TP - 166.53)
β 9.10 - XAG/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 60.811)
β 9.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 168.56)
β 9.10 - GBP/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 1.32256)
5/5 = 100%
β΄οΈ 12.10 - NAS100 - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit + re-entry in profit)
π TP
β΄οΈ 12.10 - XOM - SHORT βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
β 12.10 - GS - LONG βοΈ (TP - 910.49 me | or 900.49 + gap)
β 12.10 - XAG/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 59.99) πΈ
β΄οΈ 12.10 - USD/JPY - LONG βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
1/5 - (4 open positions)
β΄οΈ 13.10 - EUR/USD - SHORT βοΈ (open - off-profit)
π TP
β 13.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 4156.16) πΈ
β 13.10 - C - LONG βοΈ (SL - 124.97 | +re-entry)
β 13.10 - XAU/USD - SHORT βοΈ (TP - 4153.06) πΈ
β΄οΈ 13.10 - MS - LONG βοΈ (open - near break-even))
π SL π @: 184.39 | TP
2/5 - (2- open positions)
ββββββββββββββ
It was another mixed session, with weakness during Asian / pre-market trading and stabilization during US trading. Our exposure remains too high, but we expect more trading activity in Wednesdayβs session, giving us opportunities to reduce it further.
As always, very strong precious metals trading over the past few sessions, with two successful Gold trades πΈ in a difficult precious metals market + the Silver closing πΈ during Asian trading. We reduced the total number of open stock positions somewhat and secured some strong exits, including META πΈ and GS πΈ. On the other side was C πΈ, which saw significant profit-taking despite a strong earnings report.
We saw a temporarily weaker USD today, but expect the USD to remain in demand.
Overall, it was still a very profitable session for us
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β€10π5π₯4π3
Key events in today's economic calendar:
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)
β¦οΈ π¨π³ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 01:30 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ PPI YoY SEP β 01:30 (reported: π’)
β¦οΈ πͺπΊ ECB President Lagarde Speech β 02:10
πΈ π¨π³ Balance of Trade SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ Exports YoY SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ Imports YoY SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Gov Bailey Speech β 05:30
πΈ π©πͺ Wholesale Prices SEP (MoM/YoY) β 06:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π¦ BoC Gov Macklem Speech β 06:05
β¦οΈ πͺπΊ ECB President Lagarde Speech β 08:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Bowman Speech β 09:40
β¦οΈ πΊπΈ Core Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
β¦οΈ πΊπΈ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ CPI SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Barkin Speech β 17:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Beige Book β 18:00
πΈ πΊπΈ API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/09 β 20:30
πΈ = Event of medium/high importance
β¦οΈ= Event of very high importance
π΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
π‘ = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
π’ = Data better than analysts' expectations
---
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
βοΈ ASML (ASML) π³π± (reported: π’)
βοΈ Bank of America (BAC) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Morgan Stanley (MS) πΊπΈ
βοΈ BlackRock (BLK) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Fastenal (FAST) πΊπΈ
βοΈ State Street (STT) πΊπΈ
---
SmartTraderβ’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
(times in UTC+0; one hour before British Summer Time)
β¦οΈ π¨π³ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 01:30 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ PPI YoY SEP β 01:30 (reported: π’)
β¦οΈ πͺπΊ ECB President Lagarde Speech β 02:10
πΈ π¨π³ Balance of Trade SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ Exports YoY SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π³ Imports YoY SEP β 03:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¬π§ BoE Gov Bailey Speech β 05:30
πΈ π©πͺ Wholesale Prices SEP (MoM/YoY) β 06:00 (reported: π’)
πΈ π¨π¦ BoC Gov Macklem Speech β 06:05
β¦οΈ πͺπΊ ECB President Lagarde Speech β 08:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Bowman Speech β 09:40
β¦οΈ πΊπΈ Core Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
β¦οΈ πΊπΈ Inflation Rate SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ CPI SEP (MoM/YoY) β 12:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Barkin Speech β 17:30
πΈ πΊπΈ Fed Beige Book β 18:00
πΈ πΊπΈ API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/09 β 20:30
πΈ = Event of medium/high importance
β¦οΈ= Event of very high importance
π΄ = Data worse than analysts' expectations
π‘ = Data in-line with analysts' expectations
π’ = Data better than analysts' expectations
---
Key Earnings Reports:
(ordered by market capitalization)
βοΈ ASML (ASML) π³π± (reported: π’)
βοΈ Bank of America (BAC) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Morgan Stanley (MS) πΊπΈ
βοΈ BlackRock (BLK) πΊπΈ
βοΈ Fastenal (FAST) πΊπΈ
βοΈ State Street (STT) πΊπΈ
---
SmartTraderβ’ Analyst team & Robert Lindner
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π¬π§ SmartTrader TRIAL - Fundamental Market Research & Analysis
π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π― SHORT (SELL) π½ EUR/USD TP β
@: (ONLY VIP π ) Recommended Entry Range β
1.11910 - 1.11960 βΊ The USD is correcting slightly after very strong recent gains, including yesterdayβs advance, pushed it to an 18-month high. βΊ Further cooling inβ¦
EUR/USD
TP
OR
CLOSE SOON
CPI data will be released in just over an hour and will be a major market driver, including for the USD. We have LONG USD exposure through two positions, as we also hold a USD/JPY LONG, and are reducing that exposure.
We are setting a very tight TP here to exit with a small profit and want to close before the CPI data release.
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Noah
π Austria π¦πΉ
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π Goldman Sachs (GS) | LONG
βΊ +2.63% price movement
βΊ β¬281.28 profit before swap fees / β¬279.51 after swaps
Noah didnβt have to find this opportunity himself.
He followed a SmartTrader VIPπ signal with a clear entry level, clear take-profit target, and an explanation of WHY we were taking the trade and EXACTLY what price move we expected.
Thatβs what SmartTrader VIP delivers: actionable trading opportunities backed by clear and in-depth market analysis, so you understand the reasoning behind each trade while trading profitably.
βΌοΈ Over 90% our predictions have been correct over the past four months.
Congrats, Noah - thanks for sharing your result! π
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Noah
π Austria π¦πΉ
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π One overnight Goldman Sachs trade. β¬281.28 in profit.
Opened Monday evening. Closed just after Tuesdayβs NYSE open.
π Goldman Sachs (GS) | LONG
βΊ +2.63% price movement
βΊ β¬281.28 profit before swap fees / β¬279.51 after swaps
Noah didnβt have to find this opportunity himself.
He followed a SmartTrader VIP
Thatβs what SmartTrader VIP delivers: actionable trading opportunities backed by clear and in-depth market analysis, so you understand the reasoning behind each trade while trading profitably.
Congrats, Noah - thanks for sharing your result! π
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
LONG (BUY)πΌ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘
β οΈ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
SL π @: (ONLY VIPπ )
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
4079 - 4087
βΊ The CPI report came in as we expected, once again showing that extremely high fuel prices had a significant impact on consumer prices. YoY core inflation came in at 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%. That is a clear acceleration from 2.4% in August. Particularly shocking for the market is monthly headline inflation, which rose to 0.6% - even though this was in line with expectations (YoY 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected).
βΊ Overall, this outcome was foreseeable, even though the market is now reacting sharply. At least it shows that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is independent - these figures represent a major headwind for Republicans just weeks before the midterm elections.
βΊ The market reaction has already gone far, and we are trading the rebound. Gains in the USD and losses in precious metals have already been substantial. This outcome was to be expected - it shows that many market participants apparently allowed themselves to be misled by the PCE data.
βΊ We are cautiously going LONG in gold here (against the market!) and may improve our entry if gold falls significantly further. Silver is actually slightly more attractive for a dip purchase here, but is likely to remain very volatile and has also still more downside potential.
βΊ It is entirely possible that gold could dip toward 4050 or last weekβs low. However, gold will attempt to recover sooner than the market expects.
βΊ The USD is trading at its highest level in more than 18 months. Our USD/JPY LONG position easily hit our TPβ
. EUR/USD also fell well below our TP β
(or closing range). We also expect stocks to stabilize soon. The Nasdaq 100 should find support near πΌ 30350, although a decline to 30300 (= 30500 Dec future) cannot be ruled out.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101401A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by 5οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ + minutes! β οΈ
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Gold EXACTLY stabilized in our entry-range - a crazily accurate prediction against the market.
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LONG (BUY)
SL π @: (ONLY VIP
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ The CPI report came in as we expected, once again showing that extremely high fuel prices had a significant impact on consumer prices. YoY core inflation came in at 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%. That is a clear acceleration from 2.4% in August. Particularly shocking for the market is monthly headline inflation, which rose to 0.6% - even though this was in line with expectations (YoY 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected).
βΊ Overall, this outcome was foreseeable, even though the market is now reacting sharply. At least it shows that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is independent - these figures represent a major headwind for Republicans just weeks before the midterm elections.
βΊ The market reaction has already gone far, and we are trading the rebound. Gains in the USD and losses in precious metals have already been substantial. This outcome was to be expected - it shows that many market participants apparently allowed themselves to be misled by the PCE data.
βΊ We are cautiously going LONG in gold here (against the market!) and may improve our entry if gold falls significantly further. Silver is actually slightly more attractive for a dip purchase here, but is likely to remain very volatile and has also still more downside potential.
βΊ It is entirely possible that gold could dip toward 4050 or last weekβs low. However, gold will attempt to recover sooner than the market expects.
βΊ The USD is trading at its highest level in more than 18 months. Our USD/JPY LONG position easily hit our TP
Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 0.10-0.12x (10%-12%) - 1/2 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101401A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
β‘οΈ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
ββββββββββββββ
Gold EXACTLY stabilized in our entry-range - a crazily accurate prediction against the market.
WRITE US NOW π¨ - JOIN SMARTTRADER VIP
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π― LONG (BUY) πΌ Gold (XAU/USD) π‘ β οΈ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size SL π @: (ONLY VIP π ) TP β
@: (ONLY VIP π ) Recommended Entry Range β
4079 - 4087 βΊ The CPI report came in as we expected, once again showing that extremely high fuel pricesβ¦
Gold (XAU/USD)
SL π @: 4094.73
TP
We are setting an in-profit SL for gold here. If it is triggered - which is quite possible given how tight it is - we can find a new entry slightly lower. We are also tightening our TP a little.
Gold found buyers exactly in our expected support range - an almost unrealistically perfect prediction against a market gripped by panic selling.
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
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π° FREE VIP SIGNAL π―
SHORT (SELL)π½ DAX (GER_40) π©πͺ
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TPβ
@: 25321.60 (25352.60 GDAXI)
β οΈ ALREADY NEAR TP β οΈ
Recommended Entryβ
near/above 25415
π GDAXI 30 points lower
βΊ The EURβs recent sharp weakness (particularly against the USD) provides fragile support for the DAX.
βΊ The DAX is up around 0.45% today, even after the latest decline following the US CPI data. The CAC_40 is around 0.5% higher.
βΊ We also see some βSell Americaβ rotation, but the gains are primarily driven by the weak EUR - which is viewed as positive for Europe.
βΊ While we generally remain constructive and see upside potential for global stocks, we are selling the DAXβs current outperformance.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101402A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by 1οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ + minutes! β οΈ
β‘οΈ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
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Our DAX position is very close to TP here already.
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SHORT (SELL)
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 trade size
TP
Recommended Entry
π GDAXI 30 points lower
βΊ The EURβs recent sharp weakness (particularly against the USD) provides fragile support for the DAX.
βΊ The DAX is up around 0.45% today, even after the latest decline following the US CPI data. The CAC_40 is around 0.5% higher.
βΊ We also see some βSell Americaβ rotation, but the gains are primarily driven by the weak EUR - which is viewed as positive for Europe.
βΊ While we generally remain constructive and see upside potential for global stocks, we are selling the DAXβs current outperformance.
DAX (GER_40): Multiply your "standard (EUR/USD)" trade size by ~2β2.5 (200%β250%) - 2/3 position size
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101402A
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Our DAX position is very close to TP here already.
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SELL EARLY NYSE TRADING
β οΈ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP
Recommended Entry Range
πΉ Nasdaq 100 (-0.65%) | Russell 2000 (-1.1%) - are trading lower. Wall Street had a very positive pre-market session. Many investors were apparently hoping that the CPI data would not yet reflect the sharp rise in fuel prices - much like the PCE data, which we described as very outdated but which the market apparently used to guide its expectations. However, the figures showed that inflationary pressures had increased, and faster than analysts expected. Nevertheless, we expect markets to be able to stabilize. Given the extremely high oil and fuel prices, it would actually have been a major surprise if inflation had not accelerated further. We are tightening our TPs:
Nasdaq 100 (US100) πΊπΈ
π TP
Russell 2000 (US2000) πΊπΈ
π TP
πΉ ExxonMobil (+0.4%) - continues to benefit from high oil prices. A strong USD is creating some short-term headwinds for oil prices. We are tightening our TP.
π TP
πΉ Intel (-2.5%) - staged a very impressive rebound yesterday, but is opening significantly lower again following the hotter-than-expected inflation report. We are working with a tighter TP. We expect dip buying.
π TP
πΉ Morgan Stanley (-2.6%) - opens lower, despite beating estimates for both earnings per share and revenue on very strong trading revenue. However, sentiment has soured. While trading revenue, investment banking, and wealth management were strong (as we expected, although less positive than GS), there were also some areas of weakness, such as fixed-income trading revenue. Our position will close at the SL at the open.
πΉ Nvidia (-1.0%) - is giving back yesterdayβs gains (+1.0%) in pre-market trading for now, but remains above our re-entry range from yesterday. The hotter-than-expected inflation report and growing concerns about interest rate hikes are weighing on growth stocks. NVDA has plenty of upside potential. Today, investment bank Mizuho is also recommending buying, or more specifically, overweighting NVDA. We are keeping our TP (
πΉ SK Hynix (-3.7%) - remains under pressure from panic selling. Since we hold only a very small position, we can wait for a better exit. In the near term, there could be some further downside toward ~$140 (in New York). Once risk sentiment stabilizes, SKHY will rebound sharply.
βΊ The market was apparently too optimistic about the inflation data. This is not a good open or pre-market session for our portfolio. However, we expect stabilization, supported in part by renewed dip buying, including in chip stocks.
βΊ We see a rotation into defensive stocks and generally cautious market sentiment, which benefits AAPL. AAPL is trading around 1.1% higher at slightly above 345.00 in the late pre-market session. We expect some cooling and resistance in the 345.00 - 346.50 range.
Apple (AAPL): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 80-90x (8,000%-9,000%) - 2/3 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101403A
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We identified exactly where AAPL will hit resistance.
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LONG (BUY)πΌ Dell Technologies (DELL) πΊπΈ
β οΈ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 position size
TPβ
@: (ONLY VIP π )
Recommended Entry Rangeβ
510.50 - 512.00 π
βΊ Although we are aiming to reduce our exposure to the technology sector, we are buying the very sharp sell-off in DELL. Chip stocks, and particularly AI infrastructure stocks, fell sharply today as hotter-than-expected inflation data created additional headwinds.
βΊ At now more than -10% (!), however, the sell-off in DELL went very far and was accelerated by panic selling following the recent losses.
βΊ We are going against the market here and buying this very sharp dip. Dell will remain volatile and has also a bit more downside potential but has more potential to recover some of its steep losses later today.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101404A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYEDβ οΈ by 1οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ 0οΈβ£ minutes! β οΈ
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DELL extended losses as concerns mount that the Fed will raise interest rates after all, despite very high energy prices, to combat elevated inflation.
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LONG (BUY)
TP
Recommended Entry Range
βΊ Although we are aiming to reduce our exposure to the technology sector, we are buying the very sharp sell-off in DELL. Chip stocks, and particularly AI infrastructure stocks, fell sharply today as hotter-than-expected inflation data created additional headwinds.
βΊ At now more than -10% (!), however, the sell-off in DELL went very far and was accelerated by panic selling following the recent losses.
βΊ We are going against the market here and buying this very sharp dip. Dell will remain volatile and has also a bit more downside potential but has more potential to recover some of its steep losses later today.
Dell Technologies (DELL): Multiply your βstandard (EUR/USD)β position size by approximately 25β30x (2,500%β3,000%) β 1/2 position size.
position code / 100% Transparency - 26101404A
β±οΈ Signal / Update is DELAYED
β‘οΈ Get instant signals & updates in the VIP channel
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DELL extended losses as concerns mount that the Fed will raise interest rates after all, despite very high energy prices, to combat elevated inflation.
π SmartTrader Tools:
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