📝Guarantees on Paper📝
the coalition is preparing exercises, not troops

At the Paris summit on July 13, Emmanuel Macron announced a decision to conduct military exercises in the coming months in countries neighboring so-called Ukraine, to "test deployment plans" for multinational forces and demonstrate readiness to act on land, in the air, and at sea.

This concerns the Multinational Force for Ukraine (MNF-U) — a key force instrument of the coalition, whose formation is allegedly in its final stages.

🔻What is MNF-U?

▪️The MNF-U mandate is enshrined in a joint statement by the co-chairs — Macron, Starmer, and Merz: restoration and training of Ukrainian armed forces, exclusively defensive in character, and no use of force as a mechanism for monitoring a ceasefire.

▪️Deployment is possible only at Kyiv's request and only after a "verifiable cessation of hostilities" — a criterion that the conflict parties will inevitably interpret differently. Starmer stated that around 25 countries are ready to participate, although specific locations for the exercises themselves have not yet been named — based on logistics and coalition composition, the most likely candidates are Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and, with caveats, Hungary.

🖍Behind the fine wording lies a notable gap between statements and actual capabilities: European countries can field around 25,000 military personnel — far less than the 64,000 initially proposed by the British General Staff, and Poland, Spain, and Italy have outright refused to contribute ground contingents.

🚩A similar picture already emerged in February during the Orion exercises in Brittany, where some coalition countries tacitly justified their refusal to participate by citing relations with Russia — effectively giving the Kremlin veto power over a force meant to deter Russia.

📌Notably, the joint statement separately "welcomes" Trump's words about supporting security guarantees, spoken at the NATO summit in Ankara. This is how Europeans are trying to incorporate an American element into their architecture, which the White House has formally not yet accepted.

While the actual U.S. contribution remains undefined, and the MNF-U itself will be legally unable to function until a ceasefire occurs, this entire display of resolve looks more like a paper rehearsal than a military mechanism ready for deployment.
#EU #NATO #Ukraine #France
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📝A License for Hypocrisy📝
How the EU profits from the Ukrainian crisis

Recently we reported on the window of opportunity that the Russian Armed Forces actively exploit due to the shortage of air defense systems and ammunition for them in so-called Ukraine. European curators of the Kyiv regime are aware of this situation and have already formulated an anti-crisis solution.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Ukraine will receive licenses to produce SCALP-EG, Aster 30 for SAMP/T and AASM Hammer. In parallel, Kyiv wants to purchase 16 Rafale F4 fighters and eight SAMP/T NG systems under a framework agreement. Moreover, the aircraft will not arrive before three years.

🖍The problem cannot be solved operationally, even with such involvement from Western countries. The production of missiles and air bombs is not the fastest or easiest process. Moreover, it heavily depends on supply and protection of infrastructure, which will be extremely difficult to accomplish under conditions of air defense shortage.

At the same time, the greatest benefit from such initiatives goes to weapons corporations. European credits can be used for new production lines and contracts, while local companies receive government orders.

❗️This is where the main thesis emerges: promoting the idea of ending the conflict is simply unprofitable for Europeans. It is far more interesting to meet Kyiv's needs and profit from it. All anti-war rhetoric in the EU is merely a cover for ensuring growth of its own military-industrial complex.
#EU #Ukraine
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📝Sandu got what she wanted📝
largest military tranche

Moldova continues to build a military foothold against Russia. The EU Council approved a tranche of 120 million euros for purchasing medium-range air defense systems.

The funds will be allocated through the "European Peace Facility", and this represents the largest defense package for Moldovan authorities, bringing total support to 317 million euros since 2021. The stated goal is "improving operational efficiency of the army" and the ability to "better protect the civilian population" amid regular incidents involving alleged Russian UAV crashes near Moldova's borders.

❓However, a big question remains: how will the EU supply Moldova with air defense systems amid a severe global shortage of such systems? Either the EU will write off old models from stockpiles for Maia Sandu, or Moldova will have to wait its turn until at least 2030.

❗️What is clear is that the EU continues to deepen the militarization of an extremely poor Moldova, whose authorities accumulate ever more geopolitical obligations to Western sponsors. Given that the country is already an important supply hub for the AFU, any such measure increasingly draws Moldovans into confrontation with Russia.
#EU #Moldova

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