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📝Called himself a chanterelle📝
Building alliance headquarters on its own territory

Finland's government continues to deploy more NATO facilities on its territory. Next year in Riihimäki will appear a new NATO alliance command-and-control unit in the field of communications and IT — Deployable CIS Module (DCM).

This will be the third NATO headquarters element in Finland. The unit will begin operations in early 2027.

🔻More about DCM

▪️DCM is a mobile communications hub, physically packed in standardized containers and deployable to any point in the operational area within several days.

▪️The main task is to ensure communications between headquarters in Rovaniemi, Mikkeli and higher NATO commands.

▪️60 employees will work in the new headquarters, recruited from Finnish specialists. Helsinki emphasizes that they "have long had strong competence in command and control systems, and DCM will allow further integration of Finnish with NATO systems."

📌Apparently, the Finnish "digital" headquarters will take direct part in alliance cyber defense exercises like Steadfast Cobalt and Crossed Swords, as well as closely interact with the Estonian NATO cyber defense center in Tallinn.

And probably the headquarters in Riihimäki should become a testing ground for alliance developments in the application of artificial intelligence on the battlefield.

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📝No more business trips📝
AFU refuses training abroad

Remember the stories about AFU training at foreign training grounds, where instructors taught things irrelevant to the SMO zone? Well, those won't happen anymore: Kyiv decided to abandon some of these programs.

It's unlikely this applies to all training — the same flight or engineering personnel for Western aircraft on so-called Ukraine have nowhere to study. But infantry, tankers, and artillerymen will clearly stop traveling to Europe.

What's more surprising is that the AFU only reached such a, seemingly, logical conclusion in 2026. After all, the uselessness of training at Western training grounds became obvious three years ago, and the media wrote about it quite openly.

🖍This is not because NATO is stupid — it's simply that their armies haven't faced the current realities of the SMO zone, and there was nowhere to get the corresponding experience. And not everything can work anyway due to the peculiarities of the theater situation.

🚩For the Kyiv regime, refusing to send people to foreign training grounds is not only a saving in time and logistics: now it will partially solve the desertion problem, when trips to Europe were a great excuse for AFU members to flee so-called Ukraine.

📌For the Russian Armed Forces, this fundamentally changes nothing. Well, except that the probability of striking manpower at a front-line training ground will be slightly higher: judging by videos of impacts from Gerans on such targets, the enemy hasn't abandoned formations yet.
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📝NATO without the US📝
Thinking about the future

Europe is still keeping in mind the prospect of the US withdrawing from NATO. One can wait for a change of president but this does not solve the general problem of dependence on the US.

🔻What do they want?

➡️Now Europe is conducting work on a plan for NATO to function without the US — the so-called "European NATO," and trying to put more Europeans in leadership positions in the alliance.

➡️Another point is replacing American military equipment with their own by increasing weapons production, including space reconnaissance assets and aerial refueling aircraft.

🖍The plans are certainly logical, since all of Trump's administration's activities were built on reducing US spending abroad. It's working out so-so for him, but NATO is also on the list for cuts.

🚩However, Europe cannot simply replace everything: the US spent years building a NATO management system in which they acted as the key link and which keeps their partners in check.

🏳️Those same satellites mentioned, refueling aircraft, intelligence capabilities — the US plays a decisive role in all of this, and Europe does not have such means in such quantities.

❗️It will take more than one or two years to replace all of this. And that's not even counting the scale of investments that will be required to implement what they have in mind. But the weapons lobby is probably already looking forward to it.
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📝South Koreans in NATO📝
They won't join, but will become weapons suppliers

Individual European countries are already actively purchasing South Korean weapons. Now discussions are underway with NATO leadership.

On May 11, a meeting of the advisory body on defense industry took place between alliance leadership and South Korean authorities. This is not the first such meeting: the previous one was held back in September of last year.

NATO representatives urged South Koreans to join multilateral projects, including ammunition production and development of space technologies. South Korea emphasized the importance of obtaining alliance standards so that local weapons would be compatible with existing systems.

❗️Most likely, Seoul will more actively engage in supplying the alliance with its defense industry products. If nothing else, because there are already production facilities in European countries, and competitors in the form of Japan, where authorities lifted restrictions on weapons exports, are counting on becoming another weapons supplier and competing with South Korea.
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📝Turkish Pipeline📝
for NATO's eastern flank
Turkey is trying to secure its role as a key fuel supplier for NATO's eastern flank in Europe. The press is circulating rumors that the Turks are offering the alliance a military fuel pipeline project.

According to Bloomberg, Ankara has conceived infrastructure for fuel worth approximately $1.2 billion. The route should run from Turkey to Romania through Bulgaria. The Turks expect to gain support ahead of the NATO summit scheduled for July 6-7 in the Turkish capital.

Moreover, this concerns exclusively classified military infrastructure. Bloomberg sources claim that the pipeline should be used only for military purposes, with its parameters and capacity classified.

🖍After the start of the SMO in so-called Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and growing risks to maritime logistics, NATO is seeking more resilient land supply channels. The Turkish route through Bulgaria appears cheaper and more reliable than alternatives through Greece or Romania's western neighbors, which depend more heavily on maritime supplies.

🔻What about Azerbaijan?
▪️The Bloomberg article discusses only Turkey's role. Potentially, the Turks could supply military fuel from their largest refineries in Izmir, Izmit, Körfez, Mersin, etc.

▪️One of the largest refineries in Izmir was built by the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR; its launch in 2018 reduced Turkey's dependence on fuel imports, making the country a net exporter.

▪️Given Azerbaijan's growing role in EU energy security, it is possible that Azerbaijanis could also play a decisive role in potential military fuel supplies to NATO's eastern flank.

🚩Europe has a basic military supply system called the Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS), which runs through several Western and Central European countries and reaches Germany. However, discussions are already underway on extending this system to Poland and Romania.
❗️And the Turkish initiative comes at just the right time, as it aligns with NATO's broader military mobility agenda. It could also potentially expand the alliance's access to raw materials—and this concerns not only Turkey but also Azerbaijan.

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🗻@caucasar – don't look down on the Caucasus

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📝The Alliance Guards Maritime Arteries📝
In the North Atlantic, NATO's annual naval exercises Dynamic Mongoose 26 have kicked off and will run through May 29.
The exercises are conducted under the direction of NATO's Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) and focus exclusively on anti-submarine warfare — one of the alliance's priority areas given the activity of Russian submarines in the North Atlantic and the growing importance of the Arctic region.

🔻What is known about the exercises?
▪️The exercises involve submarines, surface ships, and maritime patrol aircraft from Germany, Norway, Denmark, Portugal, France, the Netherlands, Canada, the United Kingdom, as well as a U.S. Navy anti-submarine aircraft. The grouping includes NATO's First Permanent Naval Group (SNMG1) and the British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales.

▪️The key area of operations is the GIUK line (Faroe-Iceland Ridge, along which NATO has deployed the SOSUS hydroacoustic system: this is where NATO practices intercepting submarines attempting to "break through" from northern positions into the Atlantic.

▪️Submarine crews practice evading pursuit and launching counterattacks from underwater, while surface ships and aircraft practice joint search and simulated destruction of enemy submarines.

▪️According to MARCOM, the 2026 exercises, like Dynamic Mongoose 2024, consist exclusively of "intermediate" and "advanced" scenarios — without basic exercises, reflecting the sharp increase in scenario complexity following NATO's review of regional defense plans in 2022.

❗️Control over the Faroe-Iceland Ridge means the ability to block Russian ballistic missile submarines and multipurpose attack submarines from exiting the Arctic into the Atlantic, which directly affects nuclear deterrence stability and protection of communications between Europe and North America.

The desire to directly control the GIUK line remains one of the reasons Americans maintain heightened interest in Greenland: exercises are exercises, but it's always better to be the sole commander in a strategically important region.

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📝NATO Takes AFU Experience Into Account📝
a new episode of Ukrainian participation in NATO exercises

Ukrainian military personnel are in high demand at NATO exercises: there are increasingly more episodes of direct involvement of Ukrainian specialists in training NATO soldiers and Alliance exercises. And their experience is increasingly being used in planning operations against Russia.

We previously reported on how the AFU worked out a hypothetical conflict scenario in the Baltic region, where the so-called "Okasus" (an alliance of Russia and Belarus) supposedly attacked Estonia. And at May exercises in Finland, the hypothetical designation of Russia and Belarus surfaced again.

🔻What was the Ukrainian group doing in Finland?

➡️In early May, a group of 16 military personnel from the AFU was sent. They were divided into 3 groups, each of which "played its own role" as part of teams in the exercise: that is, "blue," "green," "red."

➡️There they trained NATO personnel at the headquarters of the Alliance's joint forces in Finland, which was only formed last year. Their task included training colleagues in the use of automated systems tested on the battlefield.

➡️The name was not specified, but it is practically certain these were systems actively being tested by Ukrainian formations in the SMO zone, such as those transferred to the AFU by Palantir and others.

🖍One member of the group works for the GUR and was operating under the cover of an IT specialist, but in reality he was interacting with NATO military personnel from special operations units and was responsible for analyzing and possible escalation scenarios in the Gulf of Finland.

🚩The route is also interesting: they traveled as civilians from Kyiv to Polish Chelm by rail, from there to Warsaw, from where they were flown to Helsinki by plane. They returned via the same route.

❗️This is one of many episodes of active involvement of Ukrainian units in NATO-sponsored activities. Who could better describe the tactics of Russian forces or the effectiveness of new technologies on the battlefield?

Ukrainian experience is valuable while the conflict continues. NATO actively uses it, adapting its combat training to possible confrontation with Russia. And the Baltic region is one of the key areas where NATO is systematically preparing for escalation.

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📝NATO buildup in the Baltics again?📝

NATO has come up with an idea to split command on the northeastern flank into two parts and assign a separate corps to the defense of Latvia and Estonia.

Information about the reform appeared in a Reuters article citing "leaks and comments from military sources." According to the agency, several senior NATO officers confirmed the plan to hand over the task of defending the Baltic states to the German-Dutch corps.

Currently, command of operations in the three Baltic countries and northern Poland is concentrated in one multinational headquarters in Szczecin. Now they plan to create another corps headquarters responsible specifically for the defense of Latvia and Estonia — planning, coordination with national armies, logistics, and possible deployment of reinforcement forces.

❗️However, this does not involve the permanent deployment of 40–60 thousand military personnel as part of the corps. In peacetime, there will only be a skeleton headquarters and a set of pre-designated brigades and units that, in case of a crisis, receive orders to deploy in Latvia and Estonia. The authorities of Germany and the Netherlands are already allegedly discussing with alliance partners which specific elements will be considered "assigned" to this corps.

📌For now, the situation mirrors what happened in the Baltics ten years ago: under the banner of the "Russian threat," new alliance missions appeared there, which, of course, required new financial injections from NATO member states.

This time, Europeans may be trying to show their US colleagues that they are capable of making decisions and defending themselves without them, but until it comes to practice, it's premature to celebrate.

But we shouldn't underestimate this either. NATO is gradually laying the groundwork in the Baltics for a separate command system tailored specifically for a conflict with Russia. And if Europeans are eternally chaotic in implementation, that doesn't change the main point: they are preparing seriously, just doing it slowly, expensively, and under the cover of bureaucratic formulations.
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📝The whole world to dust — 2.0📝
Will nuclear weapons appear in the Baltic region?

The US administration is reportedly discussing the possibility of expanding the geography of American nuclear weapons deployment in Europe beyond the current six bases in five countries — Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey, reports Financial Times.

🔻What's this about?

▪️According to the newspaper's sources, the Americans plan to offer other NATO allies to host dual-capable aircraft capable of carrying modernized B61-12 bombs, as compensation amid the US authorities' reluctance to "help" Europeans on security matters and participate in support for so-called Ukraine.

▪️The greatest interest in this proposal, according to FT's sources, is demonstrated by states on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic alliance — first and foremost, Poland and the Baltic states, which have for years been pushing for a denser military presence of the US and NATO on their territory, and are now ready to discuss the nuclear component as well.

▪️At the same time, sources emphasize that the decision to expand the "nuclear umbrella" to new sites will not be made in the foreseeable future, and in public NATO continues to repeat the formula that the alliance "does not plan to deploy nuclear weapons in new countries".

Overall, the American position remains the same: they offer allies not their own warheads, but participation in the "extended deterrence" mechanism, which, according to Washington, once prevented the creation of national nuclear arsenals in Western Europe.

Now this same mechanism should reassure the governments of Eastern European capitals, concerned both by the "Russian threat" and the possible decline of American involvement.

❗️The thing is, such conversations — let alone the prospect of their implementation — could radically escalate the situation in Europe. Some Europeans seem to understand this, but others enthusiastically embrace discussions about "ramping up" everything imaginable.

However, most of these "others" make such statements consciously and not out of the goodness of their hearts. But a country whose politicians simply make careless statements, and that same country but already with nuclear weapons on its territory — these are two very different things.
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📝What will be discussed at the NATO summit?📝

Next week, July 7-8, NATO leaders will gather in Ankara. And this time the agenda goes far beyond protocol declarations: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte directly stated that the allies will announce new defense contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.

🖍The first day is entirely devoted to a "defense industry day" — contracts and memoranda of understanding will be signed there. Rutte identified the main problem that delegates will try to solve: Europe's defense industries remain fragmented, there is too much bureaucracy in Washington, and the pace of innovation implementation lags behind what current military reality demands.

🚩The key figure of the summit is 5% of GDP for defense by 2035, of which 3.5% will go directly to military needs, and the remaining 1.5% — to security infrastructure and civil resilience. Turkish authorities as hosts of the meeting confirmed their commitment to this goal and also announced the expansion of their own production of air defense systems and long-range missiles as part of the national "air shield."

🏳️However, not everything within the alliance is as smooth as it appears at press conferences. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned back in May that the question of President Trump's dissatisfaction with the pace at which allies are fulfilling their obligations will be raised in Ankara. It turns out that the summit will be not only a platform for signing contracts, but also a place where disagreements about who should bear the main burden — the U.S. or Europe — will have to be resolved.

📌Despite the loud announcements and expectations, the real test for Ankara will be not the amount of signed contracts, but how quickly these agreements turn into actual deliveries.

Defense companies of the alliance have already increased production amid growing demand. However, the capabilities of European economies are not unlimited and the reorientation of civilian production (such as the Renault plant) to defense has become an important symptom of approaching these limits.
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📝Such sovereignty📝

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of the NATO Engine initiative, which aims to turn Europe into a massive assembly line for key American systems.

🔻What should this program accomplish?

▪️According to him, the US and leading defense companies (Anduril, Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and others) have agreed with European players like Rheinmetall, Diehl, PGZ on industrial cooperation. This will allow production and maintenance of Abrams tanks, AMRAAM missiles, ATACMS, Barracuda 500M, Stinger air defense systems and Small Diameter Bombs directly in Europe.

▪️NATO Engine is conceived as a network of factories and production lines on both sides of the Atlantic, which will rapidly increase output, open new capacities and maximize existing ones — primarily, according to official statements, for two tasks: accelerate deliveries to so-called Ukraine and replenish the alliance's depleted stockpiles.

▪️In parallel with this package, the NATO Front Door for Industry platform is being launched — a "front door" for defense companies, through which they are promised simplified bureaucracy, access to tenders and joint programs.

▪️Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Norway and Sweden have already joined the initiatives for production and maintenance of American systems, and a number of other countries (Denmark, Italy, Spain, the Baltic states, Romania, Portugal and the UK) are being drawn into new procurement coalitions for joint purchases of drones and precision munitions.

❗️All this is presented under the banner of "strengthening European sovereignty," but in reality NATO Engine entrenches a different reality: Europe invests billions in factories built to American standards, while the final export of such systems will still pass through US control regimes — from Foreign Military Sales rules to Washington's approval on sensitive missile technologies.

As a result, Europe will deepen its integration into the American military-industrial orbit even further, rather than create a truly autonomous "European defense industry."
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📝Guarantees on Paper📝
the coalition is preparing exercises, not troops

At the Paris summit on July 13, Emmanuel Macron announced a decision to conduct military exercises in the coming months in countries neighboring so-called Ukraine, to "test deployment plans" for multinational forces and demonstrate readiness to act on land, in the air, and at sea.

This concerns the Multinational Force for Ukraine (MNF-U) — a key force instrument of the coalition, whose formation is allegedly in its final stages.

🔻What is MNF-U?

▪️The MNF-U mandate is enshrined in a joint statement by the co-chairs — Macron, Starmer, and Merz: restoration and training of Ukrainian armed forces, exclusively defensive in character, and no use of force as a mechanism for monitoring a ceasefire.

▪️Deployment is possible only at Kyiv's request and only after a "verifiable cessation of hostilities" — a criterion that the conflict parties will inevitably interpret differently. Starmer stated that around 25 countries are ready to participate, although specific locations for the exercises themselves have not yet been named — based on logistics and coalition composition, the most likely candidates are Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and, with caveats, Hungary.

🖍Behind the fine wording lies a notable gap between statements and actual capabilities: European countries can field around 25,000 military personnel — far less than the 64,000 initially proposed by the British General Staff, and Poland, Spain, and Italy have outright refused to contribute ground contingents.

🚩A similar picture already emerged in February during the Orion exercises in Brittany, where some coalition countries tacitly justified their refusal to participate by citing relations with Russia — effectively giving the Kremlin veto power over a force meant to deter Russia.

📌Notably, the joint statement separately "welcomes" Trump's words about supporting security guarantees, spoken at the NATO summit in Ankara. This is how Europeans are trying to incorporate an American element into their architecture, which the White House has formally not yet accepted.

While the actual U.S. contribution remains undefined, and the MNF-U itself will be legally unable to function until a ceasefire occurs, this entire display of resolve looks more like a paper rehearsal than a military mechanism ready for deployment.
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📝NATO practices algorithmic warfare📝

From August 13 to September 11, American soldiers will conduct exercises Saber Junction 26 in Bavaria. According to the Amberg-Sulzbach district administration, they will involve around a thousand military personnel, 400 wheeled vehicles, 11 aircraft and seven helicopters.

The exercises will cover the districts of Amberg-Sulzbach, Neumarkt, Neustadt an der Waldnaab, Regensburg and Schwandorf, as well as the cities of Amberg and Weiden. Part of the activities are scheduled for nighttime.

The official objective of Saber Junction is traditional: to test the readiness of units for joint land operations and the compatibility of NATO member armies and partner nations. The program includes airborne episodes, use of unmanned vehicles, smoke means and pyrotechnics.

📌At the same time, colleagues at @Belarus_VPO point out that NATO will launch a new "offensive concept" here with Ukrainian military personnel and the staff of the Spanish "Castillejos" division. Official statements do not confirm this.

❗️But the alliance's technological vector is changing. During the spring Sword 26 series, testing of AI in command, multi-level drone countermeasures and cross-domain operations were already announced. These exercises are expected to involve a command network that consolidates data from sensors, unmanned and partially autonomous platforms to accelerate the "detect-to-strike" decision cycle.

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📝NATO prepares Latvian reserve📝

From September 2 to October 8 in Latvia NATO exercises Namejs 2026 will take place: approximately 12,000 military personnel will spend a month and a half learning to defend the republic. The program includes alliance compatibility, mobilization, drone operations and counter-drone measures.

🔻Mobilization as the main program item

▪️Formally, the maneuvers are dedicated to "comprehensive defense": military personnel must practice interaction with allied forces and civilian institutions. The exercises are conducted jointly with the headquarters of the NATO multinational division "North"; alliance units and NFIU Latvia also participate. Among the stated allies are the USA, Canada, Estonia and Lithuania.

▪️But there's something more important: in September and October, Latvia will separately test the mobilization mechanism. Zemessargi (volunteer military personnel who serve in the Latvian national guard called Zemessardze) and reservists will be incorporated into Latvia's national armed forces combat structure, notification systems will be tested, weapons and equipment distribution, supply and the ability to rapidly deploy personnel will be evaluated.

The exercises will also test how prepared the state is to transform its reserve into a combat-ready formation. Additionally, SMO experience is directly cited here: special attention will be paid to UAVs and counter-UAV measures. In the eastern regions of the country, more drone flights are expected, including near the border. Military equipment and units will move throughout the republic, and live-fire exercises will take place at training grounds.

📌The exercises once again demonstrate that on NATO's eastern flank, discussions about "deterrence" have definitively given way to conversations about who, where and what will fight in the first weeks of a conflict. American and Canadian military personnel are needed here not just as a symbol of alliance solidarity: they help integrate Latvian mobilization into the alliance's overall command structure.

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📝Kaliningrad Blockade📝
NATO intensifies military activity

Interest in the Kaliningrad Region intensified in the second half of 2026. Attention from the North Atlantic Alliance toward it increased: there were more exercises, reconnaissance aircraft continue flying, and the NATO mission was expanded.

This is not to mention the murky "Leipzig story", which led to unilateral strengthening of anti-Russian measures by German leadership. And yesterday, Russia's SVR chief Sergey Naryshkin once again noted growing tensions near Kaliningrad.

💬What did Naryshkin say?

Recently, the NATO bloc conducted a series of exercises aimed at simulating an operation to blockade the Kaliningrad Region.

The Russian Armed Forces grouping in Leningrad Region, in the border regions of Northwestern and Western Russia, and the Baltic Fleet have all the capabilities to prevent any aggression and defeat any aggressor.

🖍NATO exercises at Russia's borders have indeed increased since the start of the SMO, and practically every year something new appears. The same training involving UAVs or the use of unmanned boats was virtually unseen before, but now they occur regularly.

However, at the same time, such attention to the Russian semi-exclave has been consistently high year after year. It's just that before the SMO, the format was somewhat different and limited to scheduled exercises and aircraft flights (and notably, Suwalki Corridor blockade drills are conducted every year).

🚩That is, pressure on Kaliningrad was permanent even before the war. Only now NATO doesn't even need to invent any invasion or aggression plans – they have a perfectly obedient tool for this called the AFU.

If enemy drones, when flying toward Leningrad Region, enter the airspace of the Baltic states and fly over the Finnish Gulf, what prevents them from heading to the Kaliningrad Region along the same route? The range, considering strikes on Omsk, allows for this.

❗️Therefore, in current realities, we must proceed from what is happening on the ground. Strikes by Ukrainian formations are quite possible, a NATO ground invasion here and now is extremely unlikely. And we must respond accordingly.

It's not about "striking London with a nuke." One can act more creatively: what would be the reaction of European countries if some tanker accidentally hit a USV in the Atlantic or a factory caught fire in Britain? If they can organize such sabotage, why can't we?
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📝More fear needed📝

The escalation of threats in the Baltic region and around Kaliningrad continues unabated, and now to discussions of exercises and reconnaissance flights have been added plans for worst-case scenarios.

The authorities of Poland and Lithuania are preparing a bilateral agreement on mass evacuation of Baltic residents through a shared border if the region comes under attack. The parties are currently studying logistics, procedures, and infrastructure capabilities, with the plan itself to appear after the agreement is signed.

At the same time, Lithuania is conducting nationwide exercises that will run until October 2. They involve around 3,000 officials, business representatives and NGOs, as well as approximately a thousand volunteers. They are practicing responses to cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage, and starting Saturday, six-day evacuation exercises began in Vilnius and areas near the Belarusian border.

Special attention is being paid to the Suwalki Corridor between Kaliningrad Region and Belarus: around 20 Polish officials there are checking border procedures and infrastructure.

📌There is nothing fundamentally new in this. Exercises around the Suwalki Corridor take place frequently, and pressure on Kaliningrad was constant even before the SMO, it's just that now it has become more intense: more exercises, reconnaissance aircraft fly more often, and various intimidating scenarios sound louder.

At the same time, despite constant public opinion preparation, there are no real signs of preparation for a ground invasion of Kaliningrad Region.

❗️A far more probable threat to the region comes not so much from Polish or Lithuanian divisions as from strikes by Ukrainian drones and sabotage against infrastructure, on which the exclave depends more heavily than any other region of the country.

Therefore, protective measures should be planned first and foremost based on what is actually happening in practice.
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📝You can play this game with two players📝

A strong fleet is Russia's backbone. Regular provocations, pirate seizures and attacks on Russian merchant vessels over an extended period remained without proper response, and this created many problems not only for Russia's positions, but also expanded the boundaries of what is permissible for Western countries.

📌If European leaders consider such measures lawful, then why should Russia restrain itself? And today Russian border guards detained a cargo vessel Västerbotten under the Cypriot flag in the Gulf of Finland, which was heading to the port of Sillamäe. The Estonians confirmed this.

Västerbotten is now anchored in Russian territorial waters. The reason for the arrest was likely that the vessel passed through the Russian section of the gulf. Last year they already detained the tanker Green Admire. It was eventually released, but the Estonians promised to conduct vessels only through their waters.

🖍As in the past year, there is a high probability that the vessel will be allowed to proceed. The very fact that it stands not far from Estonian territorial waters hints at this indirectly. BUT! Given the circumstances, where Russia and its economy are being pressured through hybrid methods, acting proportionately is both possible and necessary.

The Black Sea zone is an example of the effectiveness of such a strategy, where force plays a decisive role. Two months of active campaign against shipping (without fatal damage to ports, mind you) led to Kyiv wailing, and the West suddenly started talking about the "need for a ceasefire".

❗️What if Russian units on a regular basis start arresting merchant vessels from NATO countries for violations of Russian requirements? Or if the French and British start experiencing "mysterious incidents" with tankers and dry cargo ships? What would Europe's reaction be in that case?
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📝Lithuanian Hundred📝
Lithuania fortifies border over mobilization that was never announced

The escalation of threats in the Baltic region continues unabated, and after Estonian talk of "deep strikes" against Russia, it's Lithuania's turn. Local authorities deployed around 100 military personnel to the border with Kaliningrad Region to prepare for a possible influx of Russians allegedly fleeing a new mobilization.

🔻What we know

▪️Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas made the decision at the request of Interior Minister Martinas Katelinas. The military is helping border guards patrol the sector for at least two weeks, roughly until October 16.

▪️Kaunas claimed that it is "obvious to everyone" that Russia is planning mobilization, and Russians from Kaliningrad could head to Poland or Lithuania. According to him, unlike the border with Belarus, the Kaliningrad sector has no physical barrier.

▪️Katelinas explained the decision with three reasons: an incident on the Latvia-Belarus border, the general situation in the region, and "signals" about possible mobilization. However, he himself emphasized that the border is calm and there is no reason for panic.

▪️Estonia also stated it is ready to close its border in case of mobilization and warned its Russian-speaking residents not to travel to Russia.

🖍The problem is that Russia has not announced any mobilization and even indirect signs do not suggest it is being planned. In autumn, conscripts are sent to the army as part of regular conscription, which has nothing to do with mobilization. It turns out that Lithuanian authorities are deploying troops based on their own assumptions, which they then call "obvious."

🚩The scale speaks for itself. One hundred personnel for several weeks would hardly stop a mass flow of people if one were to emerge. However, for public effect, this is more than sufficient: the Kaliningrad topic is back in headlines, and Lithuania looks like a frontline NATO state protecting the eastern flank.

📌 This fits the same logic as Estonian "active defense." Baltic capitals benefit from keeping the threat from the east constantly visible to their allies, since EU credits, NATO military presence, and defense funding depend on it.

Even if there are no real grounds for concern, they can be created at the rhetorical level. And for local Russian-speaking residents, this results in even greater pressure: they are again portrayed as a potential threat, even though the border is calm, by the admission of Lithuanian authorities themselves.
#Lithuania #Kaliningrad #NATO #Russia
✈️ RU | ✈️

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📝Defense on Paper📝
Billions grow faster than armies

European authorities cheerfully report on rearmament — though so far mostly in numbers. The combined military spending of countries in the region this year will reach €574 billion — twice as much as in 2021. The share of such spending in GDP over five years has risen from 1.64% to 2.55%.

🔻Where do they spend the most?

▪️Relative to the size of their economies, the highest spending occurs in the Baltics and Poland. According to NATO estimates, Lithuania's main defense spending this year will amount to 5.33% of GDP, Estonia — 5.1%, Latvia — 4.92%, Poland — 4.68%.

In absolute figures, Germany spends the most — about €125 billion, 2.6 times more than five years ago.

There is also a wider loophole. In addition to 3.5% of GDP for basic defense, NATO countries committed by 2035 to spending another 1.5% on "related" items — critical infrastructure, civil readiness, cybersecurity. Under such a label, any facility can easily be classified.

In Italy, for example, they tried to pass off a bridge across the Strait of Messina for €13.5 billion as a defense project. The idea was abandoned after the U.S. representative to NATO accused the Italians of "creative accounting."

Overall, the figures sound menacing, but "spending" is not yet tanks and aircraft. Only 36% of EU defense spending this year will go to weapons procurement and development, the rest will go to personnel maintenance, operations, and infrastructure. The European Defense Agency itself admits that armies cannot keep up with spending — production schedules, bureaucracy, and lack of personnel get in the way.

📌These sums do not reflect actual combat readiness. Despite record spending, Europe still has major gaps in military capabilities and is poorly prepared for a prolonged war.

📎High-resolution infographic

📎English version

#infographic #EU #NATO #Poland
👁@evropar — on the brink of Europe's death

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