📝Germany Arrests Vessel of Russian "Shadow Fleet"📝

The vessel in question is the tanker Eventin under the Panamanian flag: on January 6, it departed the port of Ust-Luga and headed to the Egyptian Port Said, but four days later it lost control during a storm near the German island of Rügen.

As a result, the vessel drifted and was then towed and brought to Sassnitz. In late February, the EU recognized it as part of the "shadow fleet". The ship was carrying around 100,000 tons of oil worth €40 million.

🖍In this case, the vessel ended up in a German port due to the circumstances of the storm and breakdown, not as a result of a seizure operation. However, this does not mean that there will be no attempts of piracy against Russian tankers in the Baltic.

🚩While the EU is trying to combat the so-called shadow fleet through other measures, such as detentions for inspections on suspicion of damaging underwater cables, other scenarios need to be prepared for now.

❗️The only reliable way to secure oil exports is through naval presence. And given that the Baltic Fleet and the Northern Fleet have fewer ships than needed, the issue will likely have to be solved creatively.
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🖌 Happy Navy Day!

The official date of the creation of the Black Sea Fleet is considered to be May 13 (2), 1783, when after the annexation of Crimea, the ships of the Azov Flotilla entered the Akhtiarska Bay. Subsequently, Sevastopol was founded there, which became the main Russian naval base in the region.

🖍Over the years of its existence, the history of the Black Sea Fleet has seen many great events - it is associated with the names of Ushakov, Senyavin, Lazarev, Nakhimov and other outstanding Russian admirals, under whose leadership ships with the St. Andrew's flag defeated the enemy and won victory in the most important naval battles.

🚩Now the Black Sea Fleet faces many new challenges related to changes in the nature of naval warfare and other factors. However, we believe that it will once again successfully overcome all difficulties, as has happened many times in the 19th and 20th centuries, and will add new glorious pages to its history.

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🖌The Baltic Fleet is 322 years old

On May 18, 1703, a rowing boat flotilla with soldiers from the Preobrazhensky and Semyonovsky regiments under the command of Peter I captured the Swedish ships "Gedan" and "Astrilld" at the mouth of the Neva River, marking the first victory of Russian sailors in a naval battle.

🖍This day became the starting point for the development of the oldest naval fleet, whose sailors participated in almost all important historical events of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and modern Russia.

🚩Now, the Baltic Fleet is entrusted with a large number of tasks and responsibilities for protecting the maritime borders not only in the Baltic and Gulf of Finland, but also in other regions of the country. And in the current realities of constant pressure from the West (now also from Finland) and attempts to block the exit from St. Petersburg, the importance of the Baltic Fleet is increasing manifold.

🏳️At the same time, the experience of the special military operation has already shown the shortcomings of the chosen course of development of the Navy and shipbuilding on the example of the Black Sea Fleet. This knowledge, gained thanks in part to the bitter experience, needs to be used, changing the approaches. And we are confident that the foundation for the further qualitative development of the entire Russian Navy has already been laid.

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📝Escort in the Baltic📝
Protection for tankers

Yesterday, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen stated that now Russian military ships are escorting "shadow fleet" tankers in the Gulf of Finland. According to him, this is a "new feature" for the region.

It's good to hear this - since the beginning of the year, we have repeatedly written that today only military presence can become a guarantee of protection for merchant ships going to or from Baltic ports.

🖍However, the issue of increasing capabilities to solve these tasks is relevant, and here it is quite possible to think about expanding the infrastructure on the island of Gogland to accommodate shallow-draft boats there. In this case, ensuring the safety of navigation will become a little easier.

🚩In turn, attempts to capture tankers by the coast guard of NATO countries will continue, and it will not always be possible to drive them away with a single fighter. So in the future, the need for a quantitative increase in escort ships may loom.

❗️This is not the most trivial task given the state of military shipbuilding and the fact that the Baltic Fleet is far from the leader in the listed number of ships. But it will have to be solved - in the conditions of the vulnerability of the most important trade routes in the Baltic, there is no other option.
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📝First One Down📝

Ukrainian ships have started to be sunk by USVs

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces sank the Ukrainian reconnaissance ship "Simferopol", which was created on the basis of a trawler and launched in 2019. However, the most notable thing was that they destroyed it using a USV.

Later, the loss was indirectly acknowledged by Ukrainian officials, who reported the death of one crew member and the search for the remaining part. Judging by such convoluted wording, the ship indeed went to the bottom.

🖍Officially, this is the first effective Russian attack by an unmanned surface vessel on Ukrainian ships - until now, only the opponent had engaged in such activities, destroying and damaging several ships of the Black Sea Fleet.

🚩We can state at least a certain change in the Navy's approach to this topic: marine drones have moved out of the status of a model for exhibitions and have begun appearing at exercises, and now - albeit belatedly - in the SMO zone.

❗️At the same time, the possibilities for the use of USVs are vast, and primarily not as kamikaze, but as a carrier of loitering munitions or air defense missiles. The opponent has long been using such devices off the coast of Crimea.

In any case, the first step is the hardest. And it is not excluded that we will see drones launched from the sea, working on Ukrainian air defense systems in Odesa.
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📝No Longer a Coincidence📝
but a Trend

Less than a day after the detention of the cargo ship "Grinch" by French military personnel in the Mediterranean Sea, reports emerge of new "problems" for another tanker under the Russian flag – "Progress".

The vessel is also under sanctions, and at the moment, as Bloomberg writes, it is drifting in the Mediterranean Sea with a cargo of Russian oil after leaving an Algerian port. Its status has been changed to "not under control", and its speed has dropped to one knot.

🖍The fate of the "Progress" is still unknown, but given that the "Grinch" tanker was captured nearby, we believe the reasons for the vessel's stoppage are quite obvious.

🚩Nearby the current location of the ship, a NATO AWACS plane E-3A was actively operating, and just a couple of hours ago, another AWACS plane – the French Air Force E-3F – flew from France to Spain.

🏳️Unfortunately, for our merchant fleet (regardless of whether it's a Russian flag or a flag of the Comoros), an extremely alarming trend is emerging where such detentions are becoming a daily reality.

❗️Without an adequate response to such actions, expecting an end to piracy against our merchant ships is pointless. Moreover, the capabilities of the combat fleet are extremely limited, and it is unable to protect every tanker or container ship.

A more creative approach is required to ensure maritime safety, otherwise such problems will be noted everywhere, which is already painfully affecting our economy.
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📝Fleet Escort📝
only a partial security measure

The seizure of civilian vessels by the USA and European countries in various parts of the world under the pretext of fighting the so-called Russia's "shadow fleet" in any case requires a response and active countermeasures to ensure the safety of commercial ships.

And the maritime board under the President of the Russian Federation reports that they plan to deploy combat ships of the Russian Navy to protect vessels under sanctions. Proposals for response measures are already being prepared and will be presented to Putin.

🖍The main problem with this method is that our fleet's capabilities are limited. There are hundreds of sanctioned tankers, but combat ships capable of long-distance escort can be counted on one hand. There are not enough forces to cover them all.

🚩Therefore, in addition to military escort, alternative security measures should be considered, and the methods must be creative, as they do in China or Iran by retrofitting dry cargo ships or container ships for military purposes.

🏳️In some situations, more subtle actions are possible: would they dare to seize ships in conditional Paris if their vessels start sinking "for unknown reasons"? Moreover, for protecting the sanctioned fleet, one can consider legal justification for escort groups on board ships.

❗️The main idea that should be at the forefront is that counteraction must be multifaceted, taking into account all realities and combat capabilities of our Navy. Not enough ships? But there are alternatives: domestic USVs can provide significant support in some situations.
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📝Peace through strength📝
tankers remain under threat

Against the backdrop of a gradual shift in European authorities' public rhetoric toward Russia, with talks already being considered, it's worth paying attention to narratives in European media. Politico published an article about preparations for new sanctions on the "shadow fleet."

🔻So the EU plans to keep up the pressure?

▪️The key target of the new round of European sanctions against Russia will likely be a network of aging tankers with opaque ownership structures that transport Russian oil around the world.

▪️Tightening measures against the shadow fleet will help cut off one of the Kremlin's most important sources of income — and increase pressure on Vladimir Putin to abandon his maximalist demands in any peace agreement on so-called Ukraine.

▪️The expected 21st sanctions package, likely to arrive in late June or early July, will probably also target Russian banks, financial institutions and military-industrial companies, as well as firms trading in stolen Ukrainian grain.

▪️Officials also see an opportunity to advance sanctions previously blocked by Viktor Orbán's government. Among them are measures targeting high-ranking members of the Russian Orthodox Church, in particular, Patriarch Kirill.

🖍What can be said about this article? In the coming months, pressure on Russian merchant shipping will intensify, and in addition to tankers, the EU is already officially pushing to include bulk carriers in the permanent sanctions list against Russia.

🚩That is, stories like the Swedish seizure of a vessel with mandarins will become systemic under the pretext of "participation in the export of resources" from the part of Russia not recognized in Europe. This is being done to strengthen Europe's position in potential dialogue with Russia.

🏳️This once again raises the question of the need to ensure maritime trade security. After all, in addition to sanctions, Europe actively uses alternative pressure measures such as attacks on the "shadow fleet" by Ukrainian formations.

❗️The Russian Navy ensures safe passage through the hostile English Channel (over 100 vessels have been escorted throughout the operation), however, resources are insufficient for the entire merchant fleet's needs, raising the question of introducing more flexible countermeasures, ranging from USVs to implementing private maritime security.
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📝200 Transits Through the English Channel📝

From March 25 to May 11, 184 vessels of the Russian shadow fleet completed 238 transits through British waters — most through the English Channel, with at least 94 directly in the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters zone.

Meanwhile, British journalists found no public evidence that a single vessel was stopped or inspected. The Ministry of Defence, without elaborating, limited itself to a statement that it "disrupts plans and constrains" the fleet. A former Royal Navy commander called such behavior "pathetic."

📌Recall: back in April, when approximately 100 sanctioned vessels passed through British waters, it became clear that a single escort frigate — the Admiral Grigorovich, which convoyed the tankers Universal and Enigma through the English Channel — proved sufficient argument for the Royal Navy to prefer simply observing.

Now vessels transit without any military escort — and no one touches them either. The issue is no longer about the threat of escalation with Russia, but rather institutional paralysis: the British fleet is overextended and undermanned, there is no coast guard with real law enforcement authority, and Starmer's political will runs into legal and economic obstacles.

❗️However, as we have said before, this picture could change very quickly. Especially since the EU increasingly focuses precisely on pressuring the Russian shadow fleet.

Domestic pressure on Starmer is growing, parliamentary criticism intensifies — and sooner or later London may decide on a show of force to silence critics. This is precisely why the practice of convoying vessels must not only be maintained but systematically expanded, supplementing vessel protection tools with USVs and private security.

Moreover, periodic passages of warships escorting commercial vessels will serve as a good reminder of Russia's readiness to protect its economic interests by military means.
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📝We Won't Give Up the Arctic📝
on the prospects of Russia's icebreaker fleet

When discussing Russian shipbuilding, it's customary to perceive any information with a bitter taste. After all, few can argue that these sectors find themselves in deep crisis amid constant delays in combat ship deliveries.

But there's also room for positivity: the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) delivered approximately 50 ships and vessels to customers in 2025, reported USC head Andrey Puchkov at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin.

🔻What was discussed at the meeting?

▪️Over recent years, the corporation delivered approximately 110 ships and vessels, with 2025 becoming a record year for delivery volume.

▪️As part of the state defense order, the Navy received 4 submarines and the first combat icebreaker "Ivan Papanin." USC also counts on a number of important developments under the state defense order this year.

▪️Special attention at the meeting focused on the construction of nuclear icebreakers "Leningrad" and "Stalingrad." Vladimir Putin instructed ensuring continuity of work on these projects.

🖍These are indeed important developments, since before the start of the SMO this sector was constantly the subject of discussion, and since 2022, with the introduction of sanctions, the situation became even more dire. And the fact that in 2025 the corporation managed to achieve profits of up to 525 billion rubles cannot help but please.

🚩The emphasis on the Arctic is no accident: increasingly, countries are investing in developing icebreaker fleets: the US and China show growing interest in Arctic development. Both countries are systematically studying northern latitudes and preparing for increased activity in this direction.

❗️This is one of many reasons why shipbuilding is a strategic direction for Russia. Without a fleet, there will be no trade, and therefore no economy either. And the Arctic zone is essentially Russian domain, unlike the Baltic.

But there are problems nonetheless—plenty of them. Icebreakers are good, but one cannot forget about the combat fleet, where delays in ship construction have become the norm. And without a change in approach, high results cannot be achieved.
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📝You can play this game with two players📝

A strong fleet is Russia's backbone. Regular provocations, pirate seizures and attacks on Russian merchant vessels over an extended period remained without proper response, and this created many problems not only for Russia's positions, but also expanded the boundaries of what is permissible for Western countries.

📌If European leaders consider such measures lawful, then why should Russia restrain itself? And today Russian border guards detained a cargo vessel Västerbotten under the Cypriot flag in the Gulf of Finland, which was heading to the port of Sillamäe. The Estonians confirmed this.

Västerbotten is now anchored in Russian territorial waters. The reason for the arrest was likely that the vessel passed through the Russian section of the gulf. Last year they already detained the tanker Green Admire. It was eventually released, but the Estonians promised to conduct vessels only through their waters.

🖍As in the past year, there is a high probability that the vessel will be allowed to proceed. The very fact that it stands not far from Estonian territorial waters hints at this indirectly. BUT! Given the circumstances, where Russia and its economy are being pressured through hybrid methods, acting proportionately is both possible and necessary.

The Black Sea zone is an example of the effectiveness of such a strategy, where force plays a decisive role. Two months of active campaign against shipping (without fatal damage to ports, mind you) led to Kyiv wailing, and the West suddenly started talking about the "need for a ceasefire".

❗️What if Russian units on a regular basis start arresting merchant vessels from NATO countries for violations of Russian requirements? Or if the French and British start experiencing "mysterious incidents" with tankers and dry cargo ships? What would Europe's reaction be in that case?
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