Two Majors - English Channel
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Imagine leaving your home country at 14, with zero language skills to chase a dream, thatโ€™s Marina Shibayamaโ€™s story. She moved from Osaka to Moscow, where dedicated mentors helped her embrace a new life of ballet๐Ÿฉฐ. As Russia marks Trainerโ€™s Day today, letโ€™s celebrate the spirit of learning and dedication!

Marina Sibayama | No Limits: E4 / 2023
#Russia #Japan

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตWhy China and Japan are restoring diplomatic relations

China and Japan continue to work on improving their ties. This week, the foreign ministers of the two countries held a meeting in Beijing, where they discussed both problems in bilateral relations and opportunities to bring the partnership to a more friendly level.

โ–ช๏ธFor example, the Japanese side announced a relaxation of visa requirements for a certain group of Chinese tourists. This was a response to identical but broader measures taken recently by the Chinese authorities.

โ–ช๏ธIn addition, Beijing once again confirmed plans to lift the ban on imports of seafood caught in Japanese waters. It was introduced in 2023 against the backdrop of the water discharge from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

๐Ÿ“ŒBy the way, it can be assumed that the introduction of the ban was initially a purely political decision on the part of China, in order to use the cancellation of the ban as a bargaining chip to extract some concessions from Japan.

โ–ช๏ธIt is important to understand that the efforts to restore relations between Beijing and Tokyo intensified almost immediately after the elections in Japan. The local media recently circulated an opinion that the Chinese see the new Japanese administration as less pro-American.

โ–ช๏ธIt is argued that the policy of the former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was considered too irritating for China. The new cabinet is seen as offering more hope for the restoration of normal dialogue.

๐Ÿ”ปHowever, this is only one side of the issue. Possibly, the return of Donald Trump to the White House plays a significant role in the attempts to establish relations.

He may create problems for both China and Japan, so it is now beneficial for the parties to restore ties to address the upcoming challenges. It is unclear, however, whether the initiative will last and whether the attempts to settle the dialogue will lead to something more substantial.
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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Here's how Japan's military budget will be spent in 2025:

In late December last year, the Japanese government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba approved the country's new defense budget, which for the 13th time is a record high. About $55 billion will be allocated for security needs.

๐Ÿ“Œ The money will go towards various expenditures, including the development and production of domestic long-range missiles for counterstrikes against enemy military facilities.

In addition, funds will be used to create a satellite constellation necessary for target detection and surveillance. It seems not by chance that a U.S. Space Force unit was stationed in Japan last year.

๐Ÿ”ป Approximately three billion dollars are allocated to improve the service conditions of the Japanese military, including increasing salaries. Such expenses are necessary, as there is a certain shortage of personnel in the Self-Defense Forces in Japan.

It is worth noting that the approval of the budget by the Ishiba cabinet does not mean that it will be passed in the country's parliament. As a result of last year's elections, the ruling party lost its majority in the legislative body, so the opposition may still put spokes in the government's wheels. The final defense spending figures will be known later this year.
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The Soviet Union was the first to extend its hand to China in the struggle against militarist Japan. Their common victory forever bound Moscow and Beijing.

USSR and China: United in Victory / 2025
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๐Ÿ“We've Seen This Before๐Ÿ“
Japanese Pilots in Germany

Drawing historical parallels has always been a thankless task, but looking at the photo above, they are almost begging to be made. This week, Japanese pilots arrived in Germany to exchange experience and establish bilateral cooperation.

This is part of the Japanese Atlantic Eagles initiative. Within its framework, fighters from the Air Self-Defense Forces have been sent to the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, and Germany.

The rhetorical basis of the initiative is the thesis that European security directly depends on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

๐Ÿ–In recent years, the mantra "Today โ€” so-called Ukraine, tomorrow โ€” East Asia" has become widespread among Japanese leadership. Military cooperation with European countries fits well into this narrative.

๐ŸšฉSuch missions can be viewed as a continuation of defense partnership. Beyond the facade of sending fighters, it is also developing in the field of military equipment production. For example, the Japanese and NATO representatives plan to launch a dialogue in this area.

โ—๏ธTherefore, such a mission is far from the last. In the United States, calls to "turn inward" and reduce presence in alliances are becoming more frequent. The Japanese and Europeans, by organizing defense initiatives, seek to compensate for the potential absence of Americans in such a scenario. But will they be able to?
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๐Ÿ“No Missiles๐Ÿ“
They're needed more for the war with Iran

Japan's government is already experiencing Chinese economic pressure due to Tokyo's course toward strengthening defense capabilities. Now the Americans have also put the brakes on it.

Deliveries of around 400 Tomahawk missiles by 2028 may be delayed. The Japanese ordered them from the US back in 2024 for $2.35 billion, but Washington notified them that they may not meet the deadlines.

Tokyo authorities viewed the purchases as a quick way to obtain long-range missiles. Now the US has made it clear: there will be no missiles if they are needed for war in the Middle East.

๐Ÿ“ŒOverall, this is not critical, especially since a war involving Japan is unlikely to break out in Asia anytime soon. But it will likely push Tokyo authorities to encourage manufacturers to produce more domestic alternatives like Type-12 and HVGP.
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๐Ÿ“Not militarism๐Ÿ“
Exclusively for defensive purposes

The authorities of Japan are preparing for a possible counterattack in case of conflict in the region. Therefore, they increasingly deploy modern missile systems closer to the potential theater of military operations.

The Self-Defense Forces at the Kฤ“ngun base in Kumamoto Prefecture deployed new Type-25 missile systems โ€” upgraded Type-12s with a range of approximately 1,000 km. The strike radius covers southwestern Japan and the coast of China.

In the near future, bases in Hokkaido and Miyazaki will deploy different HVG missiles, after which the base in Fuji will also receive Type-25 systems. This is part of a plan to create a multi-layered defense.

๐Ÿ“ŒIn addition, the Japanese will purchase up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, deliveries of which have already begun. Tokyo also seeks to acquire UAVs and USVs, but suppliers remain undisclosed.

โ—๏ธThe Japanese government seeks to protect itself from possible aggression. However, by deploying new weapons amid confrontation with China, it instead unleashes a new round of tension in the region.

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๐Ÿ“The samurai has a weapon๐Ÿ“
And he lifted all restrictions on its sale

It was no coincidence that NATO ambassadors visited Japan last week. The authorities in Tokyo lifted restrictions on weapons exports. Now all defense industry products fall into two categories: weapons and non-weapons โ€” depending on whether they possess lethal potential.

Exports of non-weapons systems, such as radars, face no restrictions. Exports of items in the second category will only be permitted to countries that have signed an agreement with Japan on protection of classified information.

The National Security Council will approve deliveries, and then notify parliament. The only exception is the fighter jet being developed jointly with experts from Great Britain and Italy. Its sale must be approved by the cabinet of ministers.

โ—๏ธIn essence, Japan's authorities have now freed their hands. The amendments still prohibit weapons exports to countries experiencing conflict, but allow exceptions "in special circumstances," meaning deliveries to so-called Ukraine are now also possible.

๐Ÿ“ŒThis format will draw criticism from the opposition, which may argue that deliveries should be approved by parliament. But the prime minister's popularity remains high, the cabinet of ministers is at his disposal, which means objections risk remaining only in media headlines.
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๐Ÿ“In case of war with China๐Ÿ“
Japanese want their own drones

Japan's authorities continue to ramp up their defense industry. And now they've shared plans for UAVs.

In Tokyo they plan to create a domestic drone production sector. They largely plan to boost startups by attracting private company investments.

The Japanese want to increase civilian production capacity for UAV manufacturing. And in case of conflict, Japanese military personnel will simply convert them for their own needs.

Companies ACSL and Terra Drone, which in March already invested in Ukrainian Amazing Drones, are national leaders in UAV production. But their capacity is insufficient, given the potential of China and North Korea.

โ—๏ธThe Japanese have no choice, by the way. Economic confrontation with China is in full swing, and few will want to supply Japan's Self-Defense Forces with UAVs, risking sanctions from Beijing.
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๐Ÿ“Russian Armed Forces Orlan๐Ÿ“
Shot down by a Japanese interceptor?

Japanese authorities insist they are not supplying lethal weapons to the AFU directly. But private companies are already using so-called Ukraine as a testing ground.

๐Ÿ–Japanese company Terra Drone decided to boast about its interceptor Terra A1 in action. This is a joint development with Ukrainian firm Amazing Drones.

Whose UAV was shot down and where is not disclosed in the video. They only claim that Terra A1 saw combat use. It is clear that the interception took place in the airspace over so-called Ukraine. And it is unlikely that the Orlan was launched for demonstration purposesโ€”most likely it was one of those deployed by the Russian Armed Forces.

โ—๏ธThe Japanese are proud of a development that costs approximately $2,500 to use. And Terra Drone's management is now considering the possibility of deploying mass production of UAVs not only in Japan, but also in so-called Ukraine, as well as other regions of the world.

๐Ÿ“ŒA legal conflict arises here. Of course, one can argue that an air defense drone is non-lethal weapons, since it is used only against UAVs. But with sufficient mass production, it can be converted into an anti-personnel version.
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๐Ÿ“Japanese are returning๐Ÿ“
To talks with authorities in Moscow

Not long ago, the Japanese purchased Russian oil. Now Tokyo is assembling a delegation of companies that should travel to Moscow. The Japanese government wants to send to Russia a group of representatives from private companies. The tentative dates are May 26โ€“27.

The goal is to hold talks with Russian authorities on economic issues. That is, to sound out the ground regarding restoration of economic ties, which were severed since 2022. By the way, the recent visit of Japanese Senator Muneo Suzuki to Moscow may have been aimed at preparing the trip of Japanese business representatives.

๐Ÿ“ŒThe Japanese were pushed to this by an energy crisis caused by the Iranian war. Before it began, Japanese companies imported up to 90% of their oil from Persian Gulf countries.

So far, there is no confirmed list of participants. However, Japanese sources report on companies Mitsubishi and Mitsui, which hold stakes in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project. No one from the companies has publicly confirmed the visit โ€” some don't want to face sanctions or criticism, while others will only go if competitors join the delegation.

โ—๏ธFrom general anti-Russian sanctions, of course, the Japanese will not back down. But oil and LNG purchases under the Sakhalin-2 project don't fall under them โ€” the Americans have already made exceptions for it several times in the case of Japanese purchases. So energy will likely be at the top of the agenda.
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๐Ÿ“South Koreans in NATO๐Ÿ“
They won't join, but will become weapons suppliers

Individual European countries are already actively purchasing South Korean weapons. Now discussions are underway with NATO leadership.

On May 11, a meeting of the advisory body on defense industry took place between alliance leadership and South Korean authorities. This is not the first such meeting: the previous one was held back in September of last year.

NATO representatives urged South Koreans to join multilateral projects, including ammunition production and development of space technologies. South Korea emphasized the importance of obtaining alliance standards so that local weapons would be compatible with existing systems.

โ—๏ธMost likely, Seoul will more actively engage in supplying the alliance with its defense industry products. If nothing else, because there are already production facilities in European countries, and competitors in the form of Japan, where authorities lifted restrictions on weapons exports, are counting on becoming another weapons supplier and competing with South Korea.
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๐Ÿ“Another batch๐Ÿ“
Russian oil sails to Japanese port

Barely had concluded the Japan-Russia government-level talks when another oil tanker from Sakhalin already set sail for Japan โ€” already the second in a month. The vessel Voyager, likely loaded with energy resources, is heading for the Japanese port of Kiire.

The port hosts an oil terminal of one of Japan's largest energy companies, ENEOS. The tanker will arrive at the port this Sunday.

๐Ÿ“ŒThe purchase of a second batch of Russian oil in a month reflects the policy of Japanese authorities to seek alternative suppliers of hydrocarbons. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced energy imports from the Middle East are taking their toll.

The Sakhalin projects, from which the tanker carries oil, are subject to Western sanctions, but they do not apply to supplies to Japan. That's why Tokyo occasionally requests small batches โ€” this happened last June and in early May of this year.

๐Ÿ–Situations where the country would receive multiple deliveries in a month have not occurred for quite some time. Although the current batch may still be small โ€” according to unofficial data, in early May Japan received only 720 thousand barrels of oil.

โ—๏ธBut apparently, Tokyo does not plan to stop, given the lack of changes in the Strait of Hormuz. Supplies may cease to be one-off and continue until the situation improves in the Middle East. This is also indicated by the visit of a Japanese delegation to Moscow, during which the parties clearly discussed increasing imports of Russian oil.
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๐Ÿ“Collected for the AFU๐Ÿ“
Ties between Japanese and Ukrainians only grow stronger

The Japanese find more and more ways to support so-called Ukraine. Not directly, by sending soldiers, but through intermediaries.

Portuguese startup Tekever plans to create a production base for military drones in Japan. The company is currently selecting a site for producing fixed-wing UAVs.

The company's management states that it intends to export drones to Asian countries. The plan is sound, given Japan's location and technological base, which will supply the UAVs with Japanese components and production capacity. But that's not the most remarkable part.

๐Ÿ“ŒTekever has already supplied drones to so-called Ukraine for at least the past three years. No new Asian clients have been reported yet, which means UAVs assembled in Japan could be directed for AFU needs in addition to those already supplied by subsidiaries of Japanese Terra Drone.

โ—๏ธThe Japanese government remains in the background for now, as legally the authorities do not supply lethal weapons to so-called Ukraine, but with tacit consent, more and more private companies are preparing supply channels for the AFU. Given the dynamics, it is quite possible that in the near future the authorities will establish a direct mechanism of cooperation or will supply weapons through NATO programs.
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๐Ÿ“Pay, but don't interfere๐Ÿ“

At BAE Systems, they started talking about a "closing window" for new participants in GCAP โ€” a sixth-generation fighter program that the British are conducting together with the Italians and Japanese. Formally, the discussion concerns timelines: they promise to put the aircraft into service by 2035, and a new partner could bring their own requirements, modifications, and endless approvals to the project.

But behind the warning lies not concern for the schedule, but a desire to maintain control. GCAP has already reached the stage where future orders, technologies, and supply chains are being distributed. Letting in the same Germans or Spanish now โ€” means not just getting their money and potential purchases, but also redividing industrial influence. And this, remembering FCAS, leads nowhere useful.

๐Ÿ“ŒTherefore, new participants will be accepted if they don't interfere. If they bring financing, orders, and political support, but don't demand a share โ€” they are welcomed with open arms, but in the role of a contractor for secondary work or an observer without voting rights, like the Canadians.

โ—๏ธBAE Systems talks about acceleration because it monetizes very well. In the first half of the year, the company increased sales to ยฃ15.8 billion, profit by 11%, and the order portfolio reached a record ยฃ84 billion. GCAP in this scheme โ€” is not just an aircraft "for security," but a way to lock in yet another long and expensive cash flow in advance.
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๐Ÿ‘@evropar โ€” on the threshold of Europe's death

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๐Ÿ“Satellites Mobilized๐Ÿ“
Surveillance over the Far East intensified

Vladimir Putin's visit to Iturup Island triggered a sharp reaction from Japanese citizens and authorities. Later, the Americans joined in, but they didn't limit themselves to statements alone.

From August 12 to 13, US Department of Defense satellites became active and captured infrastructure objects on Iturup Island and in Sakhalin Region. There were two imaging sessions conducted in maximum detail mode.

However, the surveillance didn't stop at capturing objects on Russia's easternmost territories. From August 7 to 13, Pentagon satellites also conducted imaging of Russian Armed Forces facilities across the Far Eastern Federal District.

โ—๏ธGiven that US authorities spoke in near unison with Japanese authorities, supporting their claims to the Southern Kuril Islands, these actions look rather suspicious. Likely, we should expect further growth in intelligence activity from both countries across the entire Far East in the coming period.
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โ€ข ๐Ÿ“Threat to the Far East๐Ÿ“

The basing points of the Northern Fleet are not the only ones the US actively monitors in recent weeks. Something similar is happening in the Far East, and with the involvement of strategic aviation.

The main reason for such attention became Vladimir Putin's visit to this part of the country, including to Russian Kurils. That very visit that triggered hysteria in Japanese media, and the Americans supported unclear Japanese claims to Russian islands.

๐Ÿ–However, in addition to this, they also conducted surveillance of the Kura test range and the Pacific Fleet base on the Kamchatka Peninsula. And during the Pacific Fleet exercises that recently ended near Kamchatka, two reconnaissance aircraft RC-135 flew overhead at once.

Also, in Primorsky Krai, the Americans have been tracking changes at facilities of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the technical base of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy for almost a month now, and north of Irkutsk โ€“ monitoring the positions of the 29th Missile Division of the Russian Armed Forces.

โ—๏ธIn the Far East conditions, there is a convenient staging ground for anti-Russian operations in the form of the Pacific Ocean waters. Even in 2023, the Ukrainian side, with US and Japanese support, considered attacks from the Okhotsk and Japan Seas against strategic Russian Armed Forces facilities.

Back then, so-called Ukraine lacked the technological capabilities for such a mission. Now, when drones fly long distances, and the opponent launches USVs into the water from cargo ships off Crimea and Krasnodar Region, one can expect anything.

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๐Ÿ“No End to Grievances๐Ÿ“
Japanese upset again over the Kurils

The recent news about the UN adopting a new world map projection was noticed not only in Australia. While Australians mostly joked about it, the Japanese, after carefully examining the innovation, found something to be offended about.

It turns out that on the new Equal Earth projection map, the Kuril Islands belong to Russia, while Japanese territory ends at Hokkaido. Next to the Kurils, you can also find a footnote โ€” "Russia exercises control, and Japan claims."

The key point is that the Japanese themselves supported the UN initiative in a recent vote. The Foreign Ministry clarifies that it was aimed exclusively at adopting the new projection, not the map itself.

๐Ÿ“ŒBut apparently, such an explanation was insufficient. In the newspaper Sankei Shimbun, they worry that the "incorrect depiction of the Northern Territories" risks spreading around the world. The publication itself is right-conservative, so such concerns are typical for its authors, as well as other representatives of this political camp.

โ—๏ธIn reality, the Kuril Islands issue has long ceased to be of interest to the local public โ€” this is well demonstrated by poll results, especially among young people. But since the official Japanese position remains unchanged, the main complaints from the media and activists will not change either. Moreover, as we can see, the local government sometimes falls under them as well.
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๐Ÿ“A Parting Gift๐Ÿ“
Japanese left Kyiv with drones

After watching footage of Chinese exercises with unmanned aircraft, the Japanese began to realize that they have nothing to counter flying drones besides traditional air defense systems. Apparently, that's why Tokyo increasingly started turning to the Kyiv regime for help.

A Japanese delegation that arrived in so-called Ukraine this week is not leaving empty-handed. Its head Itsunori Onodera announced that Tokyo will purchase a batch of drones from Ukrainian company SkyFall on a trial basis. He did not specify which unmanned aircraft will be tested in Japan.

Based on the range of issues discussed with representatives of the Kyiv regime, we may be talking about interceptor drones. SkyFall is currently the most hyped Ukrainian company in this field โ€” it develops P1-SUN unmanned aircraft, which were also purchased by the UAE.

๐Ÿ–There is no talk of a long-term contract yet, but in any case, the SkyFall interceptor drone will become the second Ukrainian development in Japanese service. Recently, Maritime Self-Defense Force acquired supplies from Terra Drone, which owns two Ukrainian firms and produces interceptors.

๐Ÿ“ŒThe framework of defense cooperation between the Japanese and Ukrainians continues to take shape, and there is no doubt that Tokyo will soon acquire strike drones of Ukrainian manufacture.

โ—๏ธThe parties can lay the groundwork for further weapons purchases โ€” it is no coincidence that in spring insiders spoke of the likelihood of concluding a defense agreement. By the way, it will also open the way for supplies of Japanese equipment to so-called Ukraine, and will also facilitate joint production of UAVs โ€” the already created unmanned technology cluster will help with the latter.
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๐Ÿ“Another one caught๐Ÿ“
Russia detained a Japanese spy

The pace of deterioration in Russian-Japanese relations lately has been breaking all records: one moment Tokyo introduces sanctions, the next they respond harshly to Vladimir Putin's visit to the Kurils and the monument in Khabarovsk. But as the news shows, there is still room for further deterioration of relations.

The FSB reported the detention of a correspondent for the Japanese regional newspaper Hokkaido Shimbun on suspicion of espionage. He was detained in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on the eve of his departure from Russia.

The journalist is suspected of gathering information about Russia's defense capabilities. In particular, this concerns the number of SMO participants from residents of the Kuril Islands. Some publications report that before this he also traveled throughout the Far East and conducted interviews for his materials.

๐Ÿ“ŒThis is far from the first case of detention of Japanese correspondents on Russian territory on similar charges โ€” in 2020, a journalist from Kyodo met the same fate. And two years later, the Japanese Consul General in Vladivostok was declared persona non grata due to similar suspicions.

โ—๏ธThe fact of Japanese intelligence operations in the country should surprise no one, given that Russia has long been one of the security threats to Japan. Gathering as much sensitive and non-sensitive information as possible has always been on the list of main tasks for local intelligence services.

And this is especially relevant in light of the launch of a new body in Tokyo that accumulates intelligence information from various departments and helps piece together the full picture of what is happening in different countries, including Russia.
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