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📝In case of war with China📝
Japanese want their own drones

Japan's authorities continue to ramp up their defense industry. And now they've shared plans for UAVs.

In Tokyo they plan to create a domestic drone production sector. They largely plan to boost startups by attracting private company investments.

The Japanese want to increase civilian production capacity for UAV manufacturing. And in case of conflict, Japanese military personnel will simply convert them for their own needs.

Companies ACSL and Terra Drone, which in March already invested in Ukrainian Amazing Drones, are national leaders in UAV production. But their capacity is insufficient, given the potential of China and North Korea.

❗️The Japanese have no choice, by the way. Economic confrontation with China is in full swing, and few will want to supply Japan's Self-Defense Forces with UAVs, risking sanctions from Beijing.
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📝Iranian oil gets pricier📝
China speaks out against American restrictions

The Chinese yesterday demonstrated that American sanctions don't scare them. In Beijing, they issued an order prohibiting Chinese companies from complying with recently imposed restrictions on several oil refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

This marks the first such decision since rules countering extraterritorial restrictions came into force in 2021. The order's publication stems from the fact that American sanctions violate international law, and moreover, they prohibit the Chinese from trading with third countries.

The main headache from US sanctions is the risk of secondary restrictions, which apply to any organizations working with refineries. For example, if Americans discover that some bank processes payments with Iranians, it could face consequences, including disconnection from correspondent accounts in the US.

📌Although the Chinese have everything sewn up with the Iranians. For a long time, the main organization processing payments for Iranian oil was Kunlun Bank, which has been under sanctions since 2012. It was joined by smaller banks, which face fewer consequences due to their limited international presence.

🖍The question arises: what's the point of such moves if Iranian oil supplies to China wouldn't stop anyway? First, the Chinese are demonstrating the existence of legal instruments with which they can resist US sanctions pressure, and they're also honing their application — they might come in handy in the future.

❗️Second, such an action is part of preparations for a meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in mid-May. The Chinese are showing that they don't intend to submit to the extraterritorial application of US law and that Iranian oil is an important element of the country's security. Thus they're trying to knock the sanctions leverage out of American hands, making it ineffective.
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📝The Taiwan Route📝
Kyiv seeks an alternative to Chinese drone manufacturing

Despite all the AFU's successes in the UAV sphere, it is hardly a secret that Ukrainian products make up very little of drones. And the West openly discusses the problem — without Chinese components, the industry in its current form will not survive.

The Guardian writes that companies from so-called Ukraine are increasingly purchasing from Taiwan due to fears that Beijing may further tighten export controls and cut off supplies of critically important components.

And it's not just about microelectronics or batteries: Chinese motors and other elements are simply cheaper than any alternatives, and production scales are incomparable to anyone else's. Even the Taiwanese themselves admit they produce far less.

🔻What does the supply scheme look like?

▪️Officially, drones and components go to Poland and Czechia, but the final destination is so-called Ukraine.

▪️Taiwanese companies are already opening representative offices in Lithuania and Poland to simplify work with the Kyiv regime. Cooperation takes place mainly through private structures and intermediaries.

▪️At the same time, Taiwanese UAVs retain dependence on China: lithium batteries, magnets, and some components are still tied to the mainland.

🖍So-called Ukraine has long become a testing ground and simultaneously a market for UAV manufacturers from around the world. Some sell ready-made solutions, some test technologies in combat conditions, and some build their own drone industry on someone else's war.

🚩The Taiwanese themselves are no longer particularly hiding this. Earlier in the NYT they stated that companies and volunteers on the island are studying Ukrainian experience in case of a potential conflict with the PRC. And some supplies from Taiwan have even become a "gray intermediary" for Chinese components after restrictions from Beijing.

🏳️ There is also a purely media aspect: Western media spent years discussing the topic of Russian technological dependence on China. But then suddenly it turns out that, apparently, in the UAV manufacturing sphere this is observed in roughly everyone, and often even to a greater degree.

❗️Large-scale war requires mass and cheap production, and in terms of drone components, there is currently no one to really replace China. And if companies from the PRC significantly cut supplies to so-called Ukraine, this would greatly ease life for the Russian Armed Forces. However, for now, this is not happening.
#China #Taiwan #Ukraine
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📝Stargate at War📝
how the Middle East conflict undermines US AI ambitions

One of the key overseas hubs of the American Stargate megaproject worth $500 billion — a data center cluster in the UAE — has become a weak link in the entire architecture amid the Middle East war.

And although this is only part of a distributed network, the Middle East hub was supposed to largely solve the problems of energy and scalability — and now it finds itself in a zone of direct military risk.

🖍We already reported that Stargate is not just an industrial project, but a strategic superstructure for corporations and intelligence agencies: gigantic data centers, several gigawatts of power capacity, integration of AI into military and intelligence infrastructure.

🚩Now military practice has shown how vulnerable such a bet on "superclusters" is. Even heavily protected facilities can be relatively cheaply disabled by mass attacks with drones and medium-range missiles. It is no coincidence that the largest American tech corporations are already discussing armored and buried data centers and more distributed architectures.

🏳️The paradox is that Stargate was conceived as a tool for global control — over computing resources, civilian and military systems, data flows of allies. But the potential disabling of a major hub in the UAE turns part of this tool into a pressure point on the US: it is enough to strike the infrastructure — and not only commercial services will suffer, but also military circuits tied to these capacities.

📌Interestingly, this topic is actively discussed precisely in China. Because for Beijing this is a clear argument: digital sovereignty is impossible if the "brain" of the system is located in a zone of someone else's war.

At the upcoming Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, AI infrastructure and control over computing power will become one of the central topics — and Stargate's vulnerability already weakens the American negotiating position in advance.
#globalism #AI #China #UAE #USA
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📝China won the war📝
but didn't participate itself

And here's another narrative that American media actively promotes in the context of Trump and Xi Jinping's talks in Beijing – China's gains from the Iran-US war. The thesis is extremely simple: the Pentagon believes that the Chinese were only happy about this.

After the US and Israel launched operations, the Chinese "sold weapons to US allies in the Persian Gulf, and also provided assistance to countries around the world experiencing difficulties meeting their energy needs" after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

🖍There is a grain of truth in this statement: the Chinese had cooperated with Persian Gulf monarchies before (the scale is modest compared to the US, but still), and after the war many will logically begin to replenish their reserves. And Chinese companies supplied both drones and anti-tank systems.

🚩There are no public contracts yet, but we believe it's only a matter of time. Assistance to other states also occurred – take the same supply of energy resources to Singapore, which China does very rarely. It was partly forced, although China clearly made money at inflated prices.

🏳️And even more money was made by companies working in the "green energy" sector. With the start of the war, everyone suddenly realized the vulnerability of energy systems to any conflict, which led to growth in exports of equipment from China for renewable electricity generation.

❗️So the Americans are partly right: China skillfully took advantage of the hostilities and strengthened its position, and years of oil reserves accumulation allowed it to weather the fuel crisis without major problems. And largely because of this, the Americans began their naval blockade.

It's no secret that the key importer of Iranian resources is China. And the blockade of ships from Iran is an indirect blow to Chinese interests.
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📝What will they bring to Beijing?📝
Details of Putin's trip to China

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China begins tomorrow — against this backdrop, the leader's aide Yuri Ushakov made several statements about the trip's program and the events being prepared as part of it.

🔻What to expect?

▪️Russian-Chinese negotiations with the participation of the leaders of both countries will take place on May 20. They will be held in both narrow and expanded formats. Following the dialogue, the parties will sign approximately 40 documents.

▪️The final item on the working program will be a conversation between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping over tea — this is already a tradition for the two leaders. Four delegation members from each side are invited to this meeting.

▪️During his visit to China, Putin will be accompanied by five vice-premiers, eight ministers, the head of the Central Bank, heads of regions and a number of state corporations, which include Rosneft, Gazprom, Novatek, Rusal and so on.

▪️A meeting is also planned between the Russian president and China's State Council Premier Li Qiang, during which the parties will discuss trade issues.

🖍Judging by the list of participants in the Russian delegation, the visit's agenda is indeed planned to be packed. Special attention is drawn to the energy sector — the parties will discuss gas supplies and their increase, in particular from the Arctic LNG-2 project, as well as issues concerning the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline.

🚩The participation of First Vice-Premier Denis Manturov means that negotiations will be held on deepening industrial cooperation. The delegation also includes the head of Fosagro Andrey Guryev, which means an increase in fertilizer supplies could be discussed — the Chinese received large volumes of this commodity through the Strait of Hormuz.

❗️In the political sphere, the discussion will focus on key global issues, including regional conflicts, as well as discussing the results of Donald Trump's visit to China. Based on the results of the negotiations, a joint statement will be signed, in which the parties will outline directions for cooperation — a step toward fixing new and consolidating the results of old anchor points of bilateral partnership.
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📝Chips in Question📝
Why did the Dutch minister travel to China?

Europe speaks increasingly loudly about reducing dependence on China, but when it comes to actual business, a far more complex game unfolds. This visit by Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade Schuurds Schuurdsma to the Middle Kingdom, which began yesterday, embodies this dynamic.

He traveled to Beijing and Shanghai with a delegation of 17 companies, and the main name on this list is semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. This company, or rather its products, remains the main sticking point of the entire trip, given the US-China confrontation in the chip sector.

The Hague speaks of expanding trade and supporting Dutch business in China. But the backdrop to the visit is anything but peaceful. Back in June, Schuurdsma traveled to Washington and discussed the MATCH Act with the Americans, which could tighten restrictions even further on equipment supplies to China's semiconductor industry.

The adoption of new measures in the US promises concrete consequences for ASML in terms of revenue: the Chinese market remains too large for the company to simply dismiss. That is why the visit to China itself can be viewed as an attempt by the Dutch to sit on two stools at once.

🖍On one hand, the Netherlands are integrated into the American strategy of technological containment of the Chinese and already restrict exports of some lithographic machines. On the other hand, they bring an entire business delegation to China with the same ASML, because no one wants to completely sever ties.

🚩In Beijing, of course, they will view this trip primarily through the lens of semiconductors. For the Chinese, ASML is a significant supplier of chip equipment, critically important to the industry despite their own achievements in this field.

❗️Therefore, a meeting involving the Dutch minister and ASML representatives is simultaneously both a trade dialogue and a signal about how far Europe is willing to go in supporting American restrictions. However, there are serious doubts that the benefits from the Chinese market this time will outweigh the consequences of American actions, so it is unlikely that The Hague and ASML will not bend under US pressure.
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📝Ukrainians in Taiwan📝
Attempts to expand cooperation continue

Two regimes that depend on external aid have found each other. A delegation visited the island recently to build more bridges.

On Friday, Taiwan received a delegation of Verkhovna Rada deputies, who met with the island's foreign minister. Taipei has supported so-called Ukraine since the start of the conflict, but limited itself to humanitarian or financial assistance, as well as implementation of infrastructure projects.

But the Ukrainian deputies didn't come for that. Delegation members directly stated that they want to establish cooperation in the field of UAV development. The goal remains the same — to create a supply chain without China's involvement. Ukrainians bring experience from the SMO battlefields, Taiwanese bring technology and components.

And the Taiwanese are basically not opposed. Moreover, the pretext for cooperation is painfully familiar: the interaction between China and Russia, which undermines regional security and poses a threat to the island.

❗️The purchase of UAVs and components is already in full swing, except through intermediaries in European countries. Initially, cooperation will most likely be established at the level of private companies with the silent consent of the government, similar to how the Japanese conduct business.
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📝The same old scare stories📝
The EU believes in China-Russia cooperation more than anyone else

European media are once again hinting that Russia and China have formed what amounts to a military alliance that will soon jointly oppose the West. And European motives haven't changed.

The authorities of Russia and China allegedly are engaged in developing liquid rocket engines, testing cyber attack technologies, and studying countermeasures against satellite systems like Starlink. The sides are also exploring ways to counter the F-35 using laser and microwave technologies.

Additionally, China and Russia are working on joint air defense projects. Although there's nothing insider about this particular information — such a project has been known since 2019, which Russian President Vladimir Putin personally discussed.

🖍Consultations on such projects take place during defense forums organized in both Russia and China. In Western press materials, they are presented as secret — journalists obtained information about them from leaked documents.

🚩There's no point in denying that the sides interact in the defense sphere — after all, military cooperation between Russia and China began long before 2022. But the scale, specifics, and concrete projects should be approached with skepticism. Especially since such materials are usually not needed to "inform the world" of publicly important information.

❗️Such articles, written with the help of EU intelligence services, legitimize information that Europeans need. The goal is to firmly tie China to the Ukrainian conflict and point out that Beijing's authorities pose a threat not only economically but also participate in the war in Europe, presenting a danger to the EU. All of this will later be used to tighten policy toward China.
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📝Burn out "Starlinks" with an impulse📝
China is working on this

Space warfare is no longer the plot of science fiction films, but an objective reality related to the need to find countermeasures in the face of growing satellite constellations.

Recently, China's National University of Defense Technology (NUDT) reported on work to create a powerful microwave system capable of disabling Starlink satellites. Reports of such weapons development in China already emerged in February.

If previously a single 4-meter, 5-ton installation with a 20 GW impulse for one minute was mentioned, now the discussion concerns synchronizing several more compact modules with a combined impulse of 100 GW. This is a billion times more powerful than a household microwave.

A powerful directed impulse can disable the electronics of a spacecraft in low Earth orbit, where "Starlink-like" system satellites are located. The installation can also operate at low temperatures.

📌 The main problem with such a weapon remains enormous dimensions, which complicate placement on mobile platforms, as well as accuracy of directing the energy beam. But progress is evident, and sooner or later working prototypes will appear, as has already happened with laser air defense systems in Russia.

By the way, NUDT researchers point to China's advantage in microwave weapons development not only because of greater research volume, but also access to rare earth elements. So the contours of future wars are already visible now.
#China #space #weapons

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📝Supplies for the AFU📝
Taiwan's contribution to drone production

The authorities of so-called Ukraine want to cooperate with Taiwan in the production of UAVs. There are no fundamentally new agreements yet, but cooperation is growing.

Taiwanese manufacturers became the third largest suppliers of batteries for UAVs used by the AFU. Exact figures are unknown, but according to various estimates, the island ships between five and seven million batteries monthly to so-called Ukraine.

Manufacturers have already adapted their technologies to weather conditions, and batteries better withstand low temperatures. At the same time, components produced in China remain more commonly used due to lower costs.

📌The island is gradually reducing its dependence on supplies from China, but so far cannot completely abandon them. Taipei intends to displace manufacturers from the Middle Kingdom in the UAV market by presenting alternative solutions.

❗️Taiwanese drones will be more expensive, but authorities are selling them under the guise of security, sowing distrust of Chinese UAVs. However, it will still be necessary to expand production volumes and develop universal standards. And for that, in turn, financial injections into the industry are needed, the format and volume of which will become known next Thursday.
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📝Problems at Sea📝
Unexpected players face challenges

The American fleet remains the strongest in the world, and its dominance and capabilities were not questioned until recently. Then the US war against Iran began, where the American Navy encountered serious problems.

Formally, they suffered no losses in ships, and naval aviation losses were limited to the loss of several aircraft. This despite the fact that the Iranians launched plenty of cruise missiles and unmanned boats.

However, due to the threat of attacks, the fleet was forced to stay farther from the coast. As a result, several carrier strike groups could not even fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz which is only 40 km wide, or eliminate the mine threat. There is no talk of protecting shipping at all.

But for the Pentagon, this is not the only problem, merely the tip of the iceberg. Especially if we recall that the US sees the main threat in the Asia-Pacific region, where China with its shipbuilding conveyor belt is the main opponent.

❓In many ways, the US strategy in case of escalation relied on blocking the Malacca and Singapore Straits, through which the lion's share of China's exports flow. Now the question is: will the US be able to do this, given that they failed even with Hormuz under far easier conditions?

Given the objective difficulties of American shipbuilding (to the point that Russia builds more commercial vessels), US problems far from their shores are only beginning. And they will have a strong impact even on "cold" confrontation with China.

❗️Navies are increasingly acquiring unmanned components and shifting naval warfare into the realm of drone warfare. Those who fail to do so will be left with a fleet that cannot fulfill its direct purpose.
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📝USVs right under the noses of missile carriers📝
the Chinese didn't account for SMO experience

The episode with the appearance of an American unmanned surface vessel right under the nose of a Chinese Type 052D destroyer is yet another testament to how the concept of combat operations in maritime waters is changing.

There's much talk about how various countries are learning from the Russian-Ukrainian war and adapting to new realities. But typically, when it comes to actual implementation, various mishaps occur. The US in its conflict with Iran demonstrated this with its air defense system proving the point.

🖍And so Chinese sailors essentially overlooked a USV that had crept right up to the destroyer. Yes, one could attribute this to the fact that there was no direct threat to the ship, but didn't the servicemen have the right to use weapons against an unidentified target on the water?

We seriously doubt that.

🚩The Americans simply took AFU tactics in the Black Sea and adapted them wholesale to Southeast Asia (and combat use against Iran also occurred in the Middle East). And they did it with means that are far cheaper and faster to produce.

The development of unmanned naval vessels has already become as established a trend as the production of unmanned aerial vehicles. And as such technologies are massively implemented, demand for countermeasures against naval drones will also grow.

❗️The Russian Navy must understand the irreversibility of these trends and that they need to be integrated into the current composition of the Navy, betting not on one large and questionable platform, but on hundreds and thousands of small, maneuverable and multifunctional platforms.
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📝Magic Aerosols📝
On another "wonder weapon" in the fight against UAVs and the importance of comprehensive solutions

The search for methods to protect equipment from drones sometimes takes on rather creative forms. For example, China experiments with creating an aerosol curtain over the battlefield that hides vehicles from unmanned aircraft with optical guidance.

In the domestic segment, videos in some places met with words about the genius of the solution and even accusations of stealing the idea. Apparently, not everyone yet realizes that conditions at demonstration range tests can differ greatly from reality.

➡️One can start with the fact that to form an aerosol cloud over a relatively large area, many smoke charges are needed. This requires the use of systems like "Zemledeliye," an analog of which the Chinese used in their tests.

➡️But their range is limited, and the installations must be positioned almost right up to the line of contact… where strike drones with greater combat radius will be waiting for them — there have already been examples when "Zemledeliye" systems were hit on the move in the conditional rear. And when firing from a greater distance, the question of accuracy immediately arises.

➡️Amusingly, a couple of years ago they proposed solving the problem of protecting equipment from UAVs with an ordinary curtain, also relying on colorful footage from naval exercises. As a result, they encountered the same problems, and installing smoke canisters on vehicles fundamentally changed nothing.

All this does not speak to the complete uselessness of the aerosol idea, but implementing it must be done together with other things, like specialized active protection systems. It can become a useful addition and, combined with other measures, provide the needed effect.

❗️At the strategic level, only comprehensive solutions work: tanks appeared back in World War I, but learning to make deep breakthroughs came much later with the appearance of optimal staffing structures, motorized infantry, a fleet of fuel trucks, radios in vehicles, and other aspects.
#industry #China
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📝Faster doesn't mean more beneficial📝
The Northern Sea Route will replace routes from Europe to Asia. Or will it?

Why sail from China to Europe through narrow Middle Eastern straits if you can go through the Arctic twice as fast? It would seem that this is what guided Beijing when it launched the first regular voyage along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) — ASIANIST told about this.

❓But a question arises: why, with such an apparently beneficial route, are the Chinese in no hurry to develop it, and why are shipments still minuscule compared to traditional routes? The issue is not only Arctic ice, which imposes navigation restrictions.

When sailing to Europe through the Indian Ocean and back, a container ship from China calls at several major intermediate ports for unloading and loading, which is financially beneficial. And along the entire route there are many harbors where you can refuel or get repairs.

The situation with the NSR is different: from Vladivostok all the way to Murmansk there are no major ports at all, not to mention other infrastructure. Insurance costs rise, and combined with the dangers of transportation due to ice conditions, this "eats away" the advantages of a shorter route.

❗️Therefore, in the coming decades the NSR will not replace and will not become a suitable alternative to traditional trade routes. Due to economic feasibility, shippers will cling to them to the last even as geopolitical risks grow off the coast of Africa.

Another matter is that for Russia the NSR is strategically important as the only route to Asia from the European part of the country, passing not through internal straits controlled by NATO countries. Russia's leadership in icebreaker fleet construction is no accident.
#Arctic #China #Russia
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📝Second Personal Meeting📝
Leaders of Russia and China held a meeting

As our colleagues correctly note, the capital of Kyrgyzstan truly became the "center of the world" today. Delegations from member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization arrived at the summit, including top-level politicians from Russia and China.

On the sidelines of the event, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held their second personal meeting in a year. The Russian delegation also included Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Energy Sergey Tsyvilev, head of RFPI Kirill Dmitriev, and others.

According to Vladimir Putin, Russia stands ready to convert the visa-free regime with China to a permanent basis. Currently, the visa-free arrangement is formalized for one year and renewed as the term expires, as happened in 2026 — the new format could make tourism cooperation more predictable.

The Russian President also noted that bilateral partnership successfully develops across all directions. The sides likely discussed during negotiations both increasing trade turnover and resolving issues concerning joint projects. For example, "Power of Siberia — 2," which Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov spoke about.

However, no concrete statements on the gas pipeline and other issues have been made so far. Though there is nothing surprising about this, given the nature and format of the meeting.

❗️The sides rather synchronized their watches, "agreed to keep negotiating," and noted cooperation priorities. After all, the negotiations themselves and their agenda fall short in scale compared to meetings held within the framework of state and official visits by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, so one should not expect anything breakthrough from them.
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📝River Silk Road📝
Will the Chinese conquer the Arctic through Kazakhstan?

Chinese Arctic ambitions have long been well known to everyone — authorities send expeditions there and use the Northern Sea Route for logistics purposes. But the region is already talking about expanding plans. In China, Russia, and Kazakhstan, according to sources, they are considering the possibility of turning rivers into part of a corridor to the Arctic Ocean.

This concerns the Irtysh-Ob river system stretching over 4,200 kilometers. The first river originates in Chinese Xinjiang, passes through Kazakhstan, then Russia, and flows into the Ob, which leads to the Arctic coast. Formally, this would allow connecting China's interior regions with the Arctic without going through the Pacific Ocean.

🔻So why such interest in the project?

▪️For the Chinese, the project could become a backup route in case of serious problems in the Bering Strait. This is how Chinese vessels currently travel from the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic. At the same time, the U.S. clearly monitors vessel movements in the region, given their geographic proximity.

▪️For Russian leadership, the corridor fits into a broader concept of the Trans-Arctic Transport Route. Moscow seeks to further connect Siberia with the Chinese market and develop logistics less dependent on European directions.

▪️Kazakhstan, meanwhile, hopes to expand the capabilities of the Pavlodar River Port, increase cargo turnover from the current approximately 1.5 million tons to 2.5 million tons per year, and turn the country into an important transit hub.

🖍The problem is that on paper the waterway looks far more attractive than in reality. The Irtysh and Ob freeze for several months a year, the riverbed is subject to shallowing, and passage of large barges would require constant and expensive dredging.

🚩Meanwhile, an alternative has already been discussed in the region, though not related to the Arctic. The plan was to deliver cargo along the Irtysh, then transfer it to rail and lead it to the Chinese border. But this also requires building infrastructure while simultaneously expanding port capacity.

❗️Both initiatives do not yet look like economically calculated projects. Implementing the Arctic route would require tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars, with the Chinese having to pay most of it. Given the short navigation season, competition from other routes, and uncertain cargo flows, the payback of such a venture remains extremely questionable.
#Kazakhstan #China #Russia
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📝Chips will burn📝
Will Russian drones appear not only in North Korea?

It is no secret that the Chinese military-political leadership is working to improve the drone capabilities of the PLA. Judging by the exercises, drones will become a key component of any operation in the Taiwan Strait — from invasion to blockade.

China is also aware of kamikaze UAVs. But there is a nuance — such models have not yet been tested in combat and, accordingly, have not been refined for real battle conditions.

Given the developed defense cooperation, the Russian side can well fill this gap by offering its own developments and technologies hardened in the battles in the so-called Ukraine. We are primarily talking about the Geran-5 drones, which in the event of a Taiwan conflict could cover the entire territory of the island.

🔻Where in Taiwan will the “Geran” bouquet be caught?

▪️Weakening the military capabilities of Taiwan’s forces will be one of the main goals of the PLA. Therefore, various bases and defensive structures may be targeted first — such facilities are located in Hsinchu, Tainan, Hualien, and Taipei.

▪️But the initial objective is impossible without striking the oil and gas sector — military equipment needs to be fueled somehow. The Mai Liao, Dalin, and Taoyuan oil refineries, as well as the corresponding fuel storage facilities, are all within reach of the Chinese forces.

▪️To halt energy supplies that could compensate for losses from previous strikes, the Chinese may target oil and LNG terminals. Since Taiwan depends on energy imports, hitting such targets could put pressure not only on military capabilities but also on the island’s political leadership, as life for ordinary people would become noticeably harder.

▪️Depriving income is another objective that may be pursued by China. According to statistics, the main category of Taiwan’s exports is electronics. Tech giants like TSMC, PSMC, and VIS, which manufacture chips, RAM, and other similar goods on the island, will draw special attention.

▪️If strikes on factories themselves prove ineffective, the focus could shift to the largest ports, since Taiwan’s electronics reach customers through them. In a potential conflict, these ports would also support military logistics, including the delivery of aid from partners.

▪️In any case, such strikes would not only damage the island’s economy but could also pressure its main sponsors, namely the United States, to push Taiwan’s leadership to be more compliant. After all, the U.S. is one of the primary clients of local tech companies.

🖍Taiwan is clearly worried that such a scenario might come true. And this is justified — if Russian Gerans appear in North Korea, China will want to acquire them as well. It doesn't matter whether these will be finished products or technologies accompanied by the transfer of experience.

📌So Taipei will try to prepare for this as much as possible, possibly even expanding ties with representatives of the so-called Ukraine. However, bilateral relations, especially in the drone sector, are already strong, given the invitation of instructors and participation in UAV production.

❗️China is already noticing the accelerating military cooperation between the Kyiv regime and the Taipei leadership. Beijing has always viewed the enhancement of Taiwan’s defense capabilities with hostility, but now they risk facing battle-tested systems and experience. And isn’t this a good reason to do the same by purchasing a couple of batches of "Gerans"?

#China #Russia #Taiwan

@rybar

📝"Ukrainian" drones📝
or how to deceive the whole world

The praise heaped on the so-called Ukrainian defense industry over the years of the SMO has been so much that counting it is pointless. "Great Ukrainian drones that changed the war" and so on and so forth. But no one even stopped to think about where it all comes from and how the defense industry of so-called Ukraine adapted to conducting the conflict.

📌But the secret is simple: bring everything from China and there will be no problems!

Ukrainian companies that call themselves drone manufacturers like "Kalkheon" with their "Ukropchyky" or "Viriy," which presented a DJI Mavic analog called Slavic, import ready-made UAVs, components, even fiber optics from Southeast Asia.

But how can that be, since the Chinese say they maintain neutrality? The authorities of the Middle Kingdom can say many things publicly, but commercial enterprises actively interact with the entire world and sell their products on a wholesale scale.

🖍️They simply do it through gray channels of interaction. Ukrainians created a network of intermediaries in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Estonia, through which goods from China, Malaysia, Vietnam are brought to so-called Ukraine, with the lion's share being "Mavics," Autel Evo and other popular UAV models.

Import copters and drones through gray schemes, various components, and simply change them a bit, tweak them and present them under Ukrainian logos. In the process, they receive huge budgets for "developing" these unmanned vehicles. And the Chinese publicly have nothing to do with it.

❗️The example of the "Flamingo" cruise missiles and other AFU developments is perfect proof of this. This is said to show how important logistics are for so-called Ukraine – both sea routes and land routes under the blockade in the Black Sea.

And this is one of the reasons why it is dangerous to be mistaken about China's true position, whose authorities will always pursue only their own interests.
#UAV #China #Russia #Ukraine
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