Two Majors - English Channel
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🇷🇺 🖇️⚙️ The Western press decided to pay attention to the pace of Russian military production and came to a clear conclusion: the Russian defense industry is working even despite all the sanctions, and production has doubled compared to the pre-war level.

Business Insider cited an official from the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Commerce. He said that despite all the limited measures, the Russian authorities are becoming more and more creative in matters of re-export and supply of sanctioned products.

At the same time , The New York Times quoted a senior Estonian Defense Ministry official as saying that Russian ammunition production is now seven times higher than in the US and EU. The newspaper also claims that the Russian Armed Forces can now receive 200 new tanks per year.

📌 Judging by these publications, the West apparently still does not know the real production numbers of the Russian military industry. So the true figures will clearly come as a surprise to NATO countries.

And the reason for such drastic transformations is simple: for a year and a half they were talking about Russia running out of missiles and non-functioning factories. But when confronted with objective reality, it eventually became clear that the original forecasts were too strongly influenced by ideological attitudes.

The main thing in this situation is not to repeat the same mistakes and not to build the entire strategy with the expectation that the enemy and his sponsors are about to run out of 155 mm ammunition, tanks and guns.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦⚙️ The phrase "People's Military-Industrial Complex" has become synonymous with quality work done in the interests of our units liberating historical Russian territories during the special operation.

We have already told you about the "Upyr" drones from Those Obsessed with War or the unmanned boats "Murena" from the authors of Beyond the Mists. And recently we discussed kamikaze drones based on hoverboards from Two Majors, and the colleagues have already presented new unmanned systems that have already gone into serial production.

First, they demonstrated drones assembled according to the wishes of the fighters. Now, a new autonomous tracked platform has been presented, which is used for supply, can install mines and fire back at the enemy from a turret. Moreover, it has already been successfully tested in combat.

The colleagues can only be congratulated on this, since the people's unity in supporting the front has more than once proved its importance and effectiveness.
#industry #Russia #Ukraine
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🇺🇸⚙️ About DARPA's initiative to create "flexible" military production

Recently, the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced a seminar called Freedom Forge 2.0. It is dedicated to the concept of rapid deployment of military production, the relevance of which has become especially obvious against the backdrop of the fighting in the so-called Ukraine and the need for quickly establishing mass production.

Currently, it can take months or years to create a new military-industrial enterprise in the US and other NATO countries, but DARPA is looking for ways to reduce this time to several days. The plan is for the capacities to represent not huge factories, but a network of decentralized flexible productions that can be deployed anywhere.

🔻 It is proposed to implement this with the help of advanced scientific achievements: instead of the usual machines and conveyor belts, the authors of the concept believe it is necessary to use robots that will "form" the required part from a workpiece. All the necessary tooling is planned to be manufactured on site using 3D printers.

In simple terms, DARPA is striving to create a system in which a factory built in a short time can produce almost any military product from a drone fuselage and artillery ammunition to a tank turret. Within this concept, it is enough to load a new process to make changes to the design or even change the type of product being manufactured.

The authors were clearly inspired by the example of the revolution in drone construction, where thousands of FPV drones are produced in relatively small workshops, and developers quickly make the necessary changes to the design. However, the simple scaling of this experience to all other branches of the military industry still looks poorly implementable.

📌 As noted by Ilya Kramnik, in practice, everything comes down to cooperation with regular productions, which already destroys the entire concept. Moreover, the military-industrial complexes of NATO countries are experiencing difficulties due to this and other problems, such as personnel and competence shortages. And the existing exceptions rather confirm the rule: the same mass-produced F-35s are made on quite standard capacities.

Nevertheless, the very issue of finding methods for flexibility and adaptability of military production is quite relevant. And DARPA's initiative indicates that the US is not ignoring the "industrial" component of the experience of the special military operation and is trying to get ahead, becoming better prepared for the next conflict than any potential adversary.
#industry #USA
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🇷🇺⚙️✈️ Today, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) reported the delivery of another batch of multi-role Su-35S fighters and fifth-generation Su-57 fighters to the troops.

The exact number of aircraft is not disclosed for understandable reasons. The previous deliveries of these aircraft types took place in mid-September, and the UAC also clarified that this is not the last batch this year.

It is unnecessary to emphasize the importance of combat aviation during the special military operation, especially when it comes to the well-proven Su-35S, which have repeatedly demonstrated their capabilities over the past three years. Therefore, the appearance of new aircraft in the Aerospace Forces is certainly welcome news.

And while fighters and bombers are not yet being shipped in dozens of aircraft per month, the industry is doing everything possible to increase production. The Su-57 is no longer a singular machine in the troops.
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📝First Flight of the "Superjet" with Russian Engines📝

In Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a prototype of a short-haul aircraft with PD-8 engines has performed its first flight. The flight mission was completed in full, and certification of the engine is planned for the fall.

Previously, "Superjets" were equipped with the Russian-French SaM-146 engine. Their supplies stopped in 2022 due to sanctions, which, along with other problems, effectively led to the suspension of aircraft production.

🖍Today's event does not mean that aircraft with PD-8 engines will go into series production tomorrow - this is just the beginning of a lengthy flight test phase. However, it brings closer the appearance of a conditionally "import-substituted" version of the aircraft.

🚩Previously, the "Superjet" was repeatedly criticized for the presence of foreign components. But at the time of its design, there was no normal alternative: one can recall the competitor Tu-334 with three crew members and Motor Sich engines.

❗️Serial production of a "technologically independent" version of the "Superjet" is vital: the problems of Russian airlines show that without civil aviation in the country, there will simply be nothing to fly on, and the purchase of old Airbus and Boeing will not be a solution.
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📝More of These!📝
About the delivery of Pantsir-SMD to troops

The High-Precision Complexes holding reported on transferring a batch of Pantsir-SMD anti-aircraft missile systems — a modification of the complex that can be equipped with mini-missiles to combat drones.

Previously, we reported on this product: it can carry 48 small-sized ammunition, and its modularity allows installing standard Pantsir SAMs, creating different missile combinations depending on the tasks.

🖍During the repulsion of Ukrainian UAV raids, Pantsir-SMD systems have proven themselves very successfully due to their increased ammunition load, making it difficult for the enemy to "overload" air defense. So news of new system deliveries is encouraging.

🚩With sufficient ammunition, Pantsirs are an extremely effective means, which has been repeatedly demonstrated during the SMO. They have shot down everything from full HIMARS packages to even ATACMS tactical missiles.

📌There's some irony in this: in 2018-2021, the systems were criticized by everyone based on their use in Syria and Libya. However, their testing in real combat conditions allowed for necessary improvements.

As a result, Pantsirs not only demonstrated excellent performance but also avoided problems encountered by other air defense systems on both sides of the front, which had never been in war before 2022.
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📝Linked by One Chain📝

With each month, the "Gerani" drones become increasingly lethal and are equipped with technical devices that significantly enhance their combat capabilities. Now they are installing network radio modems.

🖍As a result, the drones can operate as repeaters and create a stable "mesh network". Among other things, this increases both the combat radius of the devices and their resistance to interference.

🚩But the most important thing is different: such infrastructure allows dozens of "Gerani" to exchange information directly in flight, even if some of them are shot down. Communication between the drone and the control point is maintained through neighboring devices, as well as through camouflaged ground repeaters.

🏳️Previously, a similar system was presumably tested on "Gerbers", and now it has appeared on the most well-known long-range Russian drones. This is another clear evidence that only the body shape remains from the original devices in the "Gerani".

📌Partly, this can be called an embodiment of the "drone swarm" concept in its first approximation. And in a "pack" of "Gerani", you can combine various types of payload, and in conjunction with repeaters, the same "Gerani-miners" can work, which multiplies the variability of their application.

❗️Accumulated combat experience, mass production, and continuous improvement are turning "Gerani" into a multifunctional tool that is increasingly difficult to intercept. This means that the effectiveness of strikes against the enemy will continue to grow.
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📝Emerging Opportunities📝
prospects for using new Geran modifications

As production scales up and existing models are refined, the range of tasks for "Gerans" continues to expand. A vivid example is the recently published Kirill Fedorov's footage of drone wreckage carrying propaganda materials.

Of course, the effectiveness of such a psychological impact method is questionable. Nevertheless, the very possibility of adapting new KPTM-3 containers in drones for different types of content is encouraging.

📌 The total number of frames featuring KPTM-3 is constantly growing. Production of this modification appears to be well-established.

Now "Gerans" can not only strike designated targets but also regularly mine supply routes deep in the rear and supply reconnaissance groups far from the front line. Even routes of repair teams for electricians are now targeted, which enemy-focused resources have been frequently complaining about recently.

❗️The AFU command will have to keep this in mind and allocate additional resources to ensure the safety of their communications. As the total number of UAVs produced grows, the enemy will have to spread its attention more and more often.
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📝Sky Defense📝
new developments in automatic turret technology

The widespread proliferation and improvement of drones have created a demand for countermeasures. Electronic warfare means are quickly becoming obsolete and often do not cover all signal transmission channels.

Therefore, domestic engineers are working on creating automatic turrets. According to the developers, the new system shows good results in intercepting low-visibility targets. However, the relatively small horizontal guidance angle raises concerns.

🖍Today on the front line, enemy UAVs often infiltrate the rear to strike communications and supply groups. Therefore, it will be problematic to effectively use the system to intercept targets on the front line.

🚩Moreover, the massive use of UAVs increases the requirements for the system's ability to identify targets. Even today, on both sides of the conflict, there are not uncommon cases of intercepting one's own drones.

🏳️ Nevertheless, the system may well find application in the rear. In the context of regular attacks by the AFU on industry, AI-guided turrets will significantly enhance the capabilities of both mobile fire groups (MFG) and air defense facilities. The problem of target identification can be solved by creating no-fly zones and equipping MFGs with radar or acoustic reconnaissance means.

❗️Right now, the main task is to scale up the production of such systems — combat testing will allow faster identification and elimination of shortcomings. And given that the authorities have become concerned about protecting Russia's sky from new threats, it is quite likely that the project will eventually get the green light.
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📝Fuel Issue📝
The state of Russia's oil industry after two years of attacks

Autumn was marked by large-scale AFU attacks on Russian oil refineries: while there were about 30 attacks throughout 2024, the enemy conducted over 60 raids on oil processing facilities this incomplete year.

Targets included enterprises even in the Perm Region and Orenburg Region, more than 1000 km from the line of contact. Some oil refineries were attacked multiple times — the Volgograd, Ryazan, and Novokuybyshevsk refineries were hit 5 to 7 times.

The result was rising fuel prices and shortages in southern regions, causing a certain psychological effect. However, the situation has generally stabilized at the moment, as evident from fuel prices.

🔻What's the situation with fuel?
▪️Jet fuel: Exchange prices showed records in August 2024, reaching 84,000 rubles per ton in August 2024. By November 10, 2025, the wholesale price per ton of fuel had dropped by ~7% to ~78,500 rubles.

▪️AI-92 gasoline: Since October 26, the exchange price per ton has fallen by ~13% — from 74,218 to 64,852 rubles/ton. This is largely due to the end of the harvest season, during which fuel traditionally becomes more expensive.

▪️Shortage was avoided by redirecting part of crude oil to refineries deep in the rear, reducing the impact of "seasonal factors" and applying various administrative measures.

🖍However, it would be foolish to assume that the raids will stop. The enemy is actively trying to undermine Russia's economic capabilities to continue combat operations, aiming to demonstrate to the West the possibility of "peace through force".

🚩The Kyiv regime will definitely try to "reach" oil refineries beyond the Urals, not only using missiles and drones but also through sabotage. They will also attempt to interfere with the restoration of damaged capacities.

❗️Preparation is necessary: the fact that low-noise UAVs still reach the Urals is a clear indication of insufficient measures taken. But this can still be corrected, as there are technical capabilities, and the issue often has an organizational nature.

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📝Russian Hardware📝
new CRP antennas for "Geran" drones

Russia is increasingly using fewer foreign components for drones — at least in the communications area.

The enemy has recently more often reported discovering Russian-made CRP "Kometa-M16" antennas in Russian strike UAVs. These antennas are necessary for drones to maintain a stable communication channel while avoiding interference and data spoofing by the opponent.

🖍Previously, their mass implementation significantly reduced the effectiveness of AFU electronic warfare, though production was dependent on foreign components. Russian samples were previously mainly found on correction and planning modules for FAB bombs.

🚩Some time ago, 12-channel models were even spotted on individual drones, but were more of a custom product. Now, specialized enemy resources report mass implementation of more stable 16-channel CRP antennas in "Geran" drones.

These antennas will not only allow Russian manufacturers to be less dependent on foreign supplies but also enable them to upgrade and adapt modules based on unit feedback. Such adaptation would be impossible when using antennas designed for the civilian market.

❗️However, it's worth understanding that with the spread of new antennas, the opponent will also be able to extract them from downed UAVs, research them, and install them on their own drones. Therefore, development in this area must continue — the AFU are not standing still and may soon find an effective countermeasure.
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📝Expanding the Model Range📝
what is known about the new "Geran" model

The evolution of Russian strike UAVs continues: network images have emerged of debris from a new drone, which is referred to as "Geran-5" in enemy reports.

It is designed with a standard aerodynamic configuration and equipped with an improved version of the Telefly jet engine, which was already seen on the "Geran-3".

➡️AFU documents mention the possibility of equipping drones with air-to-air missiles. Previously, these were already installed on "Geran-2", and — according to some data — they have already shot down enemy helicopters.

➡️The new unmanned aerial vehicle is fitted with a 12-channel satellite navigation module "Kometa" and a tracker based on a Raspberry Pi computer. Control can also be carried out using 3G and 4G signals through mobile networks, which was already implemented on other devices.

➡️Despite external differences, the new UAV is largely standardized with other "Geran" types, which facilitates production scaling and positively affects the product's price.

The appearance of "Geran-5" indicates active efforts to expand strike capabilities under constant "shield and sword" competition, considering production economics and other factors.

❗️Given the potential to carry a more powerful warhead with a range of almost 1000 km at higher speed and lower interception probability by drones and air defense systems, mass production of "Geran-5" will create many new problems for the enemy, especially when used with other series aircraft.

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📝Rocket-powered greeting📝

Barely has the enemy learned to more or less counter the "Geran-2" and actively develops a line of interceptor drones, as in the "sword and shield" competition, a new update appears. Until recently, there was almost no information about the "Geran-5". Now, however, evidence of their use is growing.

➡️As we predicted, during the strike on the oil depot of AFU formations near the settlement of Moshenko, the rocket-powered drone "Geran-5" was used. In fresh footage from objective control from the drone's board, you can see the outstanding speed, which became one of the advantages of the new drone.

➡️The new "Geran" in form factor resembles more of a small cruise missile, which adds variability to the tactics of target destruction: higher speed, greater payload, harder to intercept. And in this regard, standard "Gerans" even in rocket-powered variant are inferior to "Geran-5s".

❗️At the same time, there are already rumors about potential capability for use from aircraft, which would take "Geran" to a new level as a "substitute cruise missile". Therefore, with the new rocket-powered drone, the strike arsenal of our UAVs expands, and with it the options for their use in so-called Ukraine.
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📝Reactive ammunition is not a panacea📝
and interceptor drones either

When we wrote about how Ukrainian formations learned to counter "Geran-2" and "Geran-3," we were talking specifically about a significant expansion of the nomenclature of interceptor drones that the AFU deploys with increasing frequency.

➡️"Geran-2" drones, which became a problem for so-called Ukraine at a certain point, forced the AFU to adapt and begin countering them through work on reactive ammunition, development of interceptor drones, and improvement of warning systems.

➡️The response in this "sword and shield competition" came through flights at extremely low (and sometimes conversely high altitudes), various anti-air measures, and improvement of flight characteristics. Those same low-altitude flights complicated the work of reactive ammunition by reducing reaction time, but somewhat eased the work of interceptor drones, which became more numerous over time.

❗️A development came with the appearance of reactive "triangular" Geran-3. However, this model cannot boast significantly greater speed: it is harder for reactive ammunition to respond to it, but interceptor drones already handle it.

📌The next stage became "Geran-5," which Ukrainian drones cannot yet catch up to. However, the enemy will sooner or later learn to counter these as well, which in turn will accelerate the appearance of a new "Geran-N+1" model.

This, however, does not mean the older "Geran" models are useless — there are plenty of targets for them too. The enemy cannot cover 100% of territory with reactive ammunition and interceptor crews anyway, and it is not even possible everywhere in principle. Nothing prevents using "Geran-2s" to strike enemy command posts and strongpoints, and right on the front line – in the zone of active Russian FPV drones, the AFU cannot protect itself with reactive ammunition.
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📝From MOG to morgue📝
now pickups are burning in the AFU rear as well

In the east of so-called Ukraine, hunters for "Geraniums" increasingly become targets themselves. Against the backdrop of growing numbers of AFU mobile fire groups, Russian forces have begun deploying pairs or more of unmanned aircraft to locate and strike them.

In April, attacks on air defense groups were already noted in Chernihiv and Poltava Regions. In all episodes, "Geraniums" recorded video confirmation of target destruction thanks to installed cameras that provide the operator with constant control over the drone's flight.

The deliberate nature of the hunt for air defense systems is confirmed by the fact that in some cases Russian drone operators conducted reconnaissance of attack areas later in daylight. This allows not only assessing the success of the strike, but also determining changes in the zones where enemy air defense systems operate — fire crews are not particularly eager to return to the area after a drone impact.

📌 Likely, the number of attacks on MOGs will only increase in the future. In current conditions, "Geranium-2" increasingly fails to reach targets, but can quite effectively be used to "clear" the path for reactive models. Moreover, some footage already shows a new drone interface with installed "machine vision" systems that will facilitate hunting mobile fire groups.

❗️Likely, similar technical solutions will appear for destroying operators of interceptor drones like STING.

As we discussed on TAKTIKARE, they currently pose a threat even to reactive "threes" and "fives". Strikes on their deployment locations are already practiced, but the effectiveness of attacking a crew while operating "in the field" will be much higher.
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📝Do we need "motherships"?📝
experience with carrier drones in the SMO zone

The idea of launching drones from other UAVs emerged early in the SMO, but now its implementation has become widespread. The reason is a significant increase in the range of FPV drone strikes with the ability to "drop" them into enemy rear areas.

Although the AFU employs "motherships" on a larger scale, Russian forces are also increasingly using carrier drones. Their targets include both objects directly on the line of contact and far behind the front line.

🔻Which models are we talking about?
▪️The vast majority of documented cases of "mothership" use involve the "Molniya-2" UAV. More long-range compared to its predecessor, this drone can carry at least two FPV drones that separate from it shortly before the target approach.

▪️"Geran" and "Gerber" drones have also served as carriers on multiple occasions. Such "configurations" were most often noted in front-line regions like Sumy or Chernihiv Regions. However, no visual confirmation of target destruction by FPV drones from this platform has emerged.

▪️Occasionally, footage appears online showing reconnaissance drones "Orlan" modified as "motherships." There is also reliable information about at least one successful target destruction using the Kh-51 "Lancet" launched from a modified high-altitude UAV "Forpost."

🖍The effectiveness of "mothership" deployment largely depends on a stable radio channel. You can drop an FPV drone from a "Gerber" all the way to Kyiv, but what good is it if you cannot control it?

🚩To improve the situation, one needs to deploy and massively use relays based on heavy multi-rotor drones, which we covered in detail in a video on TAKTIKARE.
❗️In any case, drones serving as carriers for other drones have a future, and increasingly heavier-class aircraft will serve as platforms. If we lose sight of this now, there is a risk that we will not be able to catch up in the future.

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📝The Result Is Not So Bad📝
On "Arena-M" and vehicle survivability against drones

An anti-drone active protection system (APS) for vehicles, which experts have discussed for many years, has appeared in the form of "Arena-M." It has already seen combat use on T-72B3M tanks in the Dobrovolsky direction.

The problem is that the system carries only 12 rounds: while this might have sufficed for 2023-2024, by 2026 there are far more attack UAVs over the battlefield. This explains the documented losses of vehicles equipped with "Arena-M."

🖍However, while online experts have rushed to call the system completely useless, the adversary itself takes a different view and considers "Arena-M" quite effective, which is why the consumption of drones per tank kill has noticeably increased.

Moreover, such high drone density is not observed across all theaters of operations, and in some places 12 rounds will be more than sufficient. The system could also theoretically be adapted for installation on the same IFVs. So calling "Arena-M" useless is too categorical.

🚩The real issue is that fighting UAVs by simply increasing the number of anti-drone munitions alone will not work — previously they tried to turn the tank into a carrier of all sorts of electronic warfare systems. The solution to the problem lies in combining mass production with technological sophistication of platforms.

And since no one can produce hundreds of modern tanks per month today, it makes sense to develop unmanned armored vehicles based on commercial automotive or tracked platforms, equipped with specialized APS.

❗️Therefore, the appearance of "Arena-M" is a success, and its results are better than they might seem. The main thing is not to forget about a comprehensive approach to solving the problem and not reduce everything to a single wonder weapon that should change everything.
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📝Magic Aerosols📝
On another "wonder weapon" in the fight against UAVs and the importance of comprehensive solutions

The search for methods to protect equipment from drones sometimes takes on rather creative forms. For example, China experiments with creating an aerosol curtain over the battlefield that hides vehicles from unmanned aircraft with optical guidance.

In the domestic segment, videos in some places met with words about the genius of the solution and even accusations of stealing the idea. Apparently, not everyone yet realizes that conditions at demonstration range tests can differ greatly from reality.

➡️One can start with the fact that to form an aerosol cloud over a relatively large area, many smoke charges are needed. This requires the use of systems like "Zemledeliye," an analog of which the Chinese used in their tests.

➡️But their range is limited, and the installations must be positioned almost right up to the line of contact… where strike drones with greater combat radius will be waiting for them — there have already been examples when "Zemledeliye" systems were hit on the move in the conditional rear. And when firing from a greater distance, the question of accuracy immediately arises.

➡️Amusingly, a couple of years ago they proposed solving the problem of protecting equipment from UAVs with an ordinary curtain, also relying on colorful footage from naval exercises. As a result, they encountered the same problems, and installing smoke canisters on vehicles fundamentally changed nothing.

All this does not speak to the complete uselessness of the aerosol idea, but implementing it must be done together with other things, like specialized active protection systems. It can become a useful addition and, combined with other measures, provide the needed effect.

❗️At the strategic level, only comprehensive solutions work: tanks appeared back in World War I, but learning to make deep breakthroughs came much later with the appearance of optimal staffing structures, motorized infantry, a fleet of fuel trucks, radios in vehicles, and other aspects.
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
📝Cover with "Dань"📝

Now officially: at an exhibition in Egypt, "Dань-T" was presented — that very "package-like product" from our publications. This is essentially the world's first serial cruise missile successfully launched from a helicopter.

Given that "Dань-T" can potentially be adapted to various carriers, it's easy to imagine how much the firepower of a salvo and the element of surprise will increase. And there could be more missiles due to lower production labor intensity compared to the familiar Kh-101.

➡️We'll add a couple of points. First, "Dань-T" is an example of combining quantity and quality. If a product has only one attribute, like "let it be cheap, made of stones and sticks, but mass-produced," then it won't be effective.

➡️Second, despite all the obvious successes of the "small defense industry," large-scale production of cruise missiles can't be set up in garages. This is another reminder of the importance of traditional defense industry, which some media personalities have already managed to "cancel."

➡️Finally, to have a product, you need to order it. Over four years, there are plenty of examples when long-existing advanced weapons samples appeared in the troops with significant delays due to unwillingness to contract them.

As for "Dань-T," if its serial production and deliveries continue, the product (along with others) is capable of creating a strategic effect in the form of reducing the economy of so-called Ukraine, after which — as if by coincidence — US diplomatic visits to Moscow begin.

#industry #Russia

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