• Fwd from @
📝Escalation on the West Bank📝

The authorities of Israel, bored from too peaceful a life, found a source of inspiration: a wave of attacks on settlers and security forces swept across the West Bank of the Jordan River.

Over two days, there were at least four knife attacks on Israelis (including the incident from the day before yesterday), and reportedly an attempted vehicle ramming. The targets were mainly soldiers at several checkpoints.

Later, in the area of the Havat Gilad settlement, Arabs, while expelling what they claimed were tourist settlers from their village, seized weapons from security forces and opened fire. As a result, one Israeli was killed and at least four Palestinians died, with casualties on both sides.

🖍These incidents, with the exception of the last one, were clearly an attempt at a coordinated attack. However, Palestinians get more harm than benefit from it: even isolated attacks lead to intensified raids, arrests, and eliminations by Israeli security forces. And here the authorities of Israel received a pretext for even more active operations.

Israelis have already been warned that attacks may continue. Against this backdrop, large-scale operations to prevent terrorist attacks seem merely a matter of time (regardless of whether attacks actually occur or not).

❗️Moreover, Palestinians on the West Bank can barely mount any resistance: total Israeli control does not facilitate coordination between local formations, and obtaining weapons is significantly more difficult for them. Presumably, that's why they resorted to knives.

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📝Emptied Directions📝
War in Burkina Faso "retreated" to the north?

Shifts in the tactics of militants operating in Burkina Faso are clearly visible when comparing the geography of their attacks over the past two years.

If in 2024 and in the first half of 2025 radical Islamists from the "Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" group conducted operations across the entire country, then in recent months their priorities have noticeably narrowed to the northern and southeastern regions.

Of course, their attention to key cities — wherever they may be — has not disappeared, however, attacking government forces near Fada-Ngourma or Bobo-Dioulasso is becoming increasingly difficult due to the qualitative changes in the operational capabilities of Burkina Faso's Armed Forces that we have already examined.

But for militants of the "Islamic State" the past two years have become a time of forming full-fledged control zones in the far northeast of Burkina Faso. As such, offensive operations by this group still go poorly, however their presence in the aforementioned territories can already be called significant.

❗️Overall, the current zones of activity of radical Islamists form a kind of arc connecting the northwestern and northern regions of Burkina Faso into a single front. Operations in the east and southeast of the country, in turn, are becoming increasingly isolated, and the vector of movement of local units of "Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin" is shifting from the center of the country toward Benin and Nigeria.

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• 📝Boiler warm-up📝

Subdivisions of the Russian "North" troop grouping continue their offensive in the Burluk direction. New successes have been recorded on the eastern flank, where the settlement of Vodyane came under control of the Russian Armed Forces. The village is located between the recently freed Anishchino and the larger Olkhovatka, where firefights have already begun, with the enemy attempting to hold back the Russian Armed Forces from reaching their defensive line.

➡️Russian subdivisions are expanding the eastern flank of the "cauldron" pocket along the line Ustynivka — Vodyane, which could potentially allow them to encircle enemy positions with a wider front. The forming encirclement zone contains over 10 settlements.

➡️However, it is unlikely that large concentrations of Ukrainian personnel are involved. In the realities of modern drone warfare, individual holes and trenches can be held by 1-2 personnel, with responsibility zones spanning several kilometers. Most personnel after the fall of Volchansk were withdrawn to pre-prepared positions around Velykyi Burluk, where extensive defensive lines have been constructed.

➡️Occupying the approaches to Velykyi Burluk will allow in the future to significantly push back the line of contact in one of the sectors of the Belgorod border region. This will both reduce the enemy's maneuver capabilities on positions they still hold and somewhat ease the situation for Shebekino District of Belgorod Region, which the enemy has been massively attacking with drones over the past year.

📌 Once the Russian Armed Forces establish a defensive line in Kharkiv Region approximately 20 kilometers wide with several echelons, the attention of the "northerners" will likely shift to other sectors. It can be assumed that as the "pocket" near Belyy Kolodets is completed and cleared, the fighters of the "North" troop grouping will begin attacking further west — in the adjacent Slobozhansky direction near Kazacha Lopan.

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• 📝PR stunt backfired📝

Media "victories" don't last long. While the opponent celebrated the "clearing" of Dnipropetrovsk Region, the command of the "Vostok" Guards presented objective evidence of stability on the front line in this direction.

➡️New footage made it possible not only to confirm the retention of control over most of the settlements allegedly captured by the AFU, but also to clarify the current front configuration. On the western flank, assault troops occupy new positions in the buildings of Rybalske and surrounding hedgerows.

➡️On the eastern flank, Russian units confidently control Yalta, Poddubne, and Mirne. In the vicinity of Tolstoe, an extensive combat zone persists. Although the presence of Russian Armed Forces in the settlements located here is maintained, much work still lies ahead to eliminate AFU infiltration groups.

➡️On the central sector of the direction, the Far Eastern warriors completely drove the opponent out of the chain of settlements from Yehorivka to Voskresenka. Individual groups of Ukrainian formations still hide in the surrounding hedgerows, but they conduct no coordinated actions and are only occasionally resupplied via drones.

❓But how did the opponent's "flag-bearers" manage to reach the necessary villages? It comes down to the peculiarities of modern combat operations, which we discussed on TAKTIKARE. The front line at the "forward edge" is not monolithic, which allows groups from both sides to infiltrate even settlements held by Russian Armed Forces.

❗️However, such infantry groups are incapable of organizing stable control over captured positions. In the opponent's case, Russian drone operators often quickly identify the positions they occupy and eliminate the infiltrators, preventing their accumulation in the rear.

Therefore, the loud statements by AFU command about a "successful counteroffensive" are not backed by real advances or a shift in the situation on the sector. They became possible only thanks to "lucky" footage from personnel sent on a one-way mission.

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📝NATO practices algorithmic warfare📝

From August 13 to September 11, American soldiers will conduct exercises Saber Junction 26 in Bavaria. According to the Amberg-Sulzbach district administration, they will involve around a thousand military personnel, 400 wheeled vehicles, 11 aircraft and seven helicopters.

The exercises will cover the districts of Amberg-Sulzbach, Neumarkt, Neustadt an der Waldnaab, Regensburg and Schwandorf, as well as the cities of Amberg and Weiden. Part of the activities are scheduled for nighttime.

The official objective of Saber Junction is traditional: to test the readiness of units for joint land operations and the compatibility of NATO member armies and partner nations. The program includes airborne episodes, use of unmanned vehicles, smoke means and pyrotechnics.

📌At the same time, colleagues at @Belarus_VPO point out that NATO will launch a new "offensive concept" here with Ukrainian military personnel and the staff of the Spanish "Castillejos" division. Official statements do not confirm this.

❗️But the alliance's technological vector is changing. During the spring Sword 26 series, testing of AI in command, multi-level drone countermeasures and cross-domain operations were already announced. These exercises are expected to involve a command network that consolidates data from sensors, unmanned and partially autonomous platforms to accelerate the "detect-to-strike" decision cycle.

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• 📝Has the fortress fallen?📝

In recent days, there are reports from the West Zaporizhia direction about establishing control over the long-suffering Mala Tokmachka. However, the situation on this sector of the front is actually more complex.

➡️The presence of assault troops from the Dnipr National Guard is visually confirmed in Novodanylivka. The village is almost completely destroyed from the fighting and reliable shelters on its territory are almost non-existent. Fighters from the 42nd Division operate in "rushes," destroying AFU positions with small groups and withdrawing to their original lines.

➡️The situation in Mala Tokmachka is similar, except that objective footage confirming the presence of Russian Armed Forces in the village has not been received for several weeks. There is also no data on clearing Correctional Colony No. 88, which Ukrainian formations have long used as the main defensive strongpoint in this sector.

Given this, it is clearly premature to confidently claim the village has been freed. There may be no sustained AFU presence in it, but Russian forces will not be able to reliably consolidate their gains without capturing the heights north of the Konka River.

➡️Despite all this, Russian Armed Forces are already operating in Orikhiv, which is confirmed by footage from the sector. However, the presence of assault troops in the built-up area remains limited, and without clearing Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka, it is impossible to establish stable supply lines to its territory.

❗️The reason for this is the difficult situation in the "small sky." The route to Orikhiv and its approaches from Russian positions runs through open fields visible from all directions, which are constantly monitored by AFU drone operators. Without systematic hunting of enemy crews and fighting the drone control infrastructure, it will be difficult to turn the situation around.

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📝Gas Somewhere on the Road📝

There is not much time left before the heating season, and European gas storage facilities are filled to only about 58–60%. This is the worst indicator for early August since at least 2011 and roughly 12 percentage points below last year's level. Meanwhile, the seasonal norm is around 82%.

Credit goes to the architects of "energy independence": they severed the usual pipeline connections, bet on spot LNG — but it turned out this gas is needed not only by Europeans.

Although European countries receive about 7% of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, the problem lies in market mechanics. Roughly a fifth of global liquefied gas supplies pass through the strait, primarily from Qatar. When the route became unsafe, it was not "someone's" gas that disappeared, but the flexible volume that kept the global market in balance.

Thus, injection into European storage facilities slowed down precisely when it needed to accelerate. In March, the European Commission asked countries to inject gas as early as possible, but simultaneously effectively softened the storage facility filling target: instead of 90% by November 1, it allowed 80%, and in some cases — 75%.

At the same time, the Suez Canal creates a second level of vulnerability. A tanker going around Africa spends more fuel, time, and money on insurance; the fleet makes fewer trips, and each shipment becomes more expensive.

📌It turns out that Europeans abandoned the relatively predictable pipeline model without creating either sufficient reserves, or a cheap alternative, or protected logistics. Now the security of European storage facilities depends on Hormuz, Suez, weather, Asian demand, and the willingness of American traders to sell LNG.

Formally this is diversification, but in essence — energy on outsourcing with an alarm button in the Persian Gulf.

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📝NATO prepares Latvian reserve📝

From September 2 to October 8 in Latvia NATO exercises Namejs 2026 will take place: approximately 12,000 military personnel will spend a month and a half learning to defend the republic. The program includes alliance compatibility, mobilization, drone operations and counter-drone measures.

🔻Mobilization as the main program item

▪️Formally, the maneuvers are dedicated to "comprehensive defense": military personnel must practice interaction with allied forces and civilian institutions. The exercises are conducted jointly with the headquarters of the NATO multinational division "North"; alliance units and NFIU Latvia also participate. Among the stated allies are the USA, Canada, Estonia and Lithuania.

▪️But there's something more important: in September and October, Latvia will separately test the mobilization mechanism. Zemessargi (volunteer military personnel who serve in the Latvian national guard called Zemessardze) and reservists will be incorporated into Latvia's national armed forces combat structure, notification systems will be tested, weapons and equipment distribution, supply and the ability to rapidly deploy personnel will be evaluated.

The exercises will also test how prepared the state is to transform its reserve into a combat-ready formation. Additionally, SMO experience is directly cited here: special attention will be paid to UAVs and counter-UAV measures. In the eastern regions of the country, more drone flights are expected, including near the border. Military equipment and units will move throughout the republic, and live-fire exercises will take place at training grounds.

📌The exercises once again demonstrate that on NATO's eastern flank, discussions about "deterrence" have definitively given way to conversations about who, where and what will fight in the first weeks of a conflict. American and Canadian military personnel are needed here not just as a symbol of alliance solidarity: they help integrate Latvian mobilization into the alliance's overall command structure.

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• 📝Knocked down the arrogance📝
Russian Armed Forces reduce Ukraine's ability to strike ships and tankers

Work on the port infrastructure of so-called Ukraine is bearing fruit. Since the start of practically daily Russian Armed Forces strikes on ports and ship repair bases in Odesa Region, enough time has passed to assess the interim results of the campaign.

The most obvious thing is, of course, the disruption of the Kyiv regime's logistics routes, which was forced to switch to land supply chains. Later, targets became components of land-based export infrastructure such as railway trains, cargo vehicles and border checkpoints.

🖍Against this backdrop, the frequency of attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea has fallen. If in July Ukrainian sources cheerfully reported more than two hundred attacks on Russian trade vessels and related targets, then in August this figure collapsed to fifty-two claims. The number of objectively confirmed incidents is even lower.

🚩In August, the enemy expanded the geography of strikes, but their frequency remained low. AFU strikes in the waters and off the coast of the Caucasus hit tankers, dry cargo ships under the Turkish flag and ferries, and on August 12, a large-scale attempt was made to attack a group of military ships in the Novorossiysk area.

🏳️This mainly happened due to a reduction in maritime traffic in the region, along with which the number of potential targets also decreased. The enemy simply ran out of targets to work on at previous volumes. However, even so, the AFU does not abandon attempts to damage Russian shipping and military infrastructure.

Drones attack Black Sea Fleet ships directly in ports. Civilian vessels continue to become targets, which underscores the need to create a unified coordination framework between military and civilian services.

❗️But you cannot win the initiative with static defense alone. It is necessary to continue preventive and methodical destruction of the enemy's military and export infrastructure. August statistics clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of such tactics.

Thanks to it, the AFU loses combat capabilities, and the economy suffers significant losses. And the longer this situation persists, the less attractive it will become for Western partners to pour funds into a potentially unprofitable Ukrainian project.

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• 📝On the Threshold of the City📝

The approaches to Dobropillia are gradually coming under Russian Armed Forces control. Fighters from the GV "Tsentr" are pushing AFU out of neighboring settlements, seeking to reach a favorable position for a future assault.

➡️Some time ago, Russian units consolidated in the center of Annovka. AFU maintains sporadic presence on its western outskirts — it will likely only be possible to fully eliminate it after fighting begins in Dobropillia itself.

➡️Russian Armed Forces also took control of another section of the T-05-15 highway and the territory of the Dobropillia CHP tailings ponds. This allowed the expansion of the bridgehead near the city and provided assault troops with positions for accumulation not only in Annovka's built-up areas, but also in numerous "fox holes" on slag dumps.

❗️Control over this sector is important for GV "Tsentr" units not only in the context of the offensive on Dobropillia. Numerous former AFU fortifications also provide units with shelter for attacks toward Rubizhne, where right now the left "claw" of the encirclement of Ukrainian formations in the Zolote Kolodets area is forming.

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• 📝Successes near Mala Tokmachka and in Orikhiv📝

In the West Zaporizhia direction, Russian forces continue to develop successes on several sectors. The 42 MRD channel published video from the much-contested Mala Tokmachka. Apparently, the legendary village is now practically entirely under control of Russian units. The reasons behind the prolonged fighting for the village were discussed in detail on TAKTIKARE.

➡️To the east, a fairly large "pocket" remains in the Bilohiria area, but Russian units are gradually clearing it. As Russian forces occupy strongpoints south of Krasna Krynytsia, the AFU will have fewer options to hold the heights north of Mala Tokmachka. In Orikhiv, the combat zone is gradually expanding. Russian forces are gaining more routes to bring personnel into the city.

➡️On the western flank, Russian unit activity is growing again. There are quite positive reports of successes and tactical advances in the Stepnohorsk area, as well as on the approaches to Pavlivka. Their exact scale remains unclear, but even pro-Ukrainian sources claim that Ukrainian formations lost control over Shcherbaky and Maly Shcherbaky.

📌 After eliminating the "pocket" on the eastern flank and straightening out the front line along the Shcherbaky — Novoandriyivka — Novodanylivka line, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to assault Orikhiv from several directions at once. Over the years of fighting on the city's approaches, a "belt" of several defensive lines was built around the city, so expecting an "easy walk" would be premature, but the enemy's ranks in this sector have thinned considerably in recent times.

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• 📝Trains no longer running📝

Russian units continue systematic strikes against the logistics and fuel infrastructure of so-called Ukraine. The railway network is not spared — strikes on rolling stock and hub stations are delivered with no less intensity.

So Ukrainian Railways officially acknowledged: passenger service to Sumy no longer operates. Due to constant attacks, trains stop in Konotop, and passengers are delivered to the city by bus.

🔻Strike statistics

▪️In the first half of September, at least 20 units of rolling stock were destroyed — locomotives and electric locomotives in Verkhovtsevo, Kamianske, Vilnohirsk, Chornobayivka and other settlements.

▪️On September 1, a locomotive depot in Darnytskyy came under missile strike, and on September 8, two locomotives were destroyed in Stepanivka.

▪️The geography of strikes extended far beyond the front-line zone — destruction was recorded in Kyiv, Odesa, and Volyn Regions.

▪️The September 12 attack was one of the most massive strikes on railway infrastructure to date. Strikes on trains continued on September 13.

The enemy is developing security measures for rolling stock. At minimum, there is discussion of returning to full-scale armored train operations, and the first such trains have already been spotted at some stations.

📌In this regard, it is important to continue systematic work on railway infrastructure, not giving the enemy time for full adaptation. Strikes should be delivered so that any attempts to protect rolling stock prove too late and ineffective.

Beyond rolling stock, it is important not to ease pressure on hub stations, depots, and repair bases — these are what ensure locomotive recovery and maintenance. The fewer repair and redeployment options the enemy has, the faster its railway network degrades to a level where recovery becomes impossible.

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📝Greetings from the Maghreb📝
Russian "medicine" for French arrogance

In political and trade disputes with the French, Algeria's authorities often lack weighty arguments. Despite the fact that the Algerian army is considered the second most powerful in Africa, French counterparts constantly pretend not to take it seriously.

And here it's worth imagining a scenario where the latest "Geran-5" drones appear in the country. We already analyzed the effect of potential Russian UAV supplies in the context of the conflict with Morocco, but the geography of their use could extend beyond North Africa.

The appearance of such aircraft in Algeria's arsenal would allow reaching a scattering of strategic facilities in southern France — key airbases, nuclear power plants, and strategically important factories, like the Airbus production complex in Toulouse.

Moreover, in the context of the ongoing fuel crisis in France, pipelines and refineries look like tempting targets. Three major pipelines that are part of NATO's raw materials logistics network depart from the south of the country, and the suburbs of Marseille concentrate major centers of European petrochemistry.

❗️For France, the mere prospect of Algerians acquiring numerous long-range UAVs could become a serious reason to show more flexibility on various issues.

Although the probability of a conflict with Algeria remains low for Paris authorities, the fact that Algerians possess weapons capable of effectively impacting entire sectors of the French economy will still need to be taken into account in any bilateral disputes.

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• 📝Elimination of the "wedge" is near📝
situation in the Druzhkivka direction

No matter how hard the enemy tried to return to Chasiv Yar, the front continues to move steadily westward. Russian units push the AFU from positions on the approaches to the city and from the "pocket" in the Krasnoye area.

Some time ago, assault troops drove the enemy out of a strongpoint north of Nikolayevka. This village still retains an extensive "gray zone" through which small enemy infantry groups attempt to infiltrate into Chasiv Yar.

📌 Consolidation on occupied positions, thanks to the terrain's elevation differences, will allow Russian units to establish fire control over both the village buildings and part of the Rakit ridge. This will create a threat to cut off the last AFU supply routes near Stenky.

❗️Although the situation in the sector remains difficult, the position of AFU units in the "pocket" is steadily deteriorating. Drone operators isolate AFU positions from supplies and reserves, which simplifies their subsequent clearing. It can be expected that within the coming weeks, units of the Southern Group will eliminate the salient and launch an offensive toward Verolyubovka.

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• 📝The Invisible Threat📝
the price of information noise

Drones alone don't get on the nerves of Russians. Since early September, dozens of social and medical facilities have come under information attacks in the form of false bomb threat messages.

The most large-scale incident occurred in the Moscow Region, where on September 1st, over 4,000 people were evacuated from 19 facilities due to calls. Another wave of phone attacks took place during the elections, when at least 56 polling stations became targets.

At first glance, there's nothing critical about this — after all, the facilities themselves suffered no direct damage. However, each such call places additional strain on emergency services, which are forced to divert attention from actual emergencies.

🖍The institutions themselves suffer direct losses, where work schedules are disrupted, equipment sits idle, and overtime pay is required for staff. Meanwhile, the total economic damage is practically impossible to calculate accurately — it includes the entire volume of services not provided on time.

🚩Moreover, terror through false threats dulls vigilance of both ordinary citizens and on-duty services. It disperses the resources of law enforcement and other agencies and increases the risk that a real attack will go without proper attention.

❗️Not all calls come from the territory of so-called Ukraine — there are plenty of "domestic" AFU sympathizers and simply people who like to make inappropriate jokes. The external threat can be reduced by new strikes on Kyiv, and the internal one — by creative approaches and demonstrating the inevitability of punishment.

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• 📝Lyman Front📝

The situation in the Lyman direction remains tense, although it shows certain signs of improvement. Russian forces hold back the enemy's offensive along the Zherebets river, preventing them from breaking through with substantial forces.

Reports continue to emerge of recon groups attempting to infiltrate the eastern bank. The enemy does not abandon attempts to enter Yampolivka from the Kolodezi direction, as well as to cross in the area of the settlement Novolyubivka.

➡️The enemy gradually increases its presence in the forests west of Zarechne, where Ukrainian formations continuously feed new infantry groups despite heavy losses from Russian drone and artillery strikes. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Zarechne itself.

➡️In Lyman, the situation remains difficult. Russian forces continue to maintain approaches to the city through the forest massif, but cannot consolidate there. The enemy possesses numerical superiority, as well as an advantage in drones, of which there are many here.

➡️In the area of Dibrova and Ozerny, the enemy has accumulated considerable reserves. According to footage regularly published by the 204th "Akhmat" regiment, Russian forces systematically destroy enemy drone control points west of Ozerny.

➡️The enemy uses these UAVs not only to strike the responsibility zone of the "West" grouping under Yampol, but also attempts to disrupt supplies to Russian forces from the "South" grouping, which are conducting heavy defensive battles in the vicinity of Rai-Aleksandrivka and attempting to maintain a bridgehead across the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal.

❗️To say the crisis has passed would be premature. Stabilization measures have already yielded some results, however the consequences of these problems will have to be dealt with for a long time, especially since the "ripple effects" in the form of deteriorating situations on the Slavyansk and Kupiansk directions are only just beginning.

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• 📝Komar Under Pressure📝
enemy flanking maneuvers

The enemy attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the situation remains extremely tense. There is growing evidence of enemy attempts to advance in the area of the settlement Komar.

➡️According to footage from Russian sources, the enemy already operates with infantry in the vicinity of the settlement Perebudova, which lies east of the Mokri Yaly river. Judging by the direction of movement of a Ukrainian assault aircraft struck by a drone, the enemy attempts to outflank Komar.

➡️There are reports of AFU activity in the area of the settlement Fedorivka, which lies further south. This adds complications for Russian units conducting active defense here.

➡️The eastern flank of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, as before, remains an extensive "gray zone" where the enemy gradually consolidates. Taking advantage of superiority in drones and high ground in the area of Ivanovka and Gavrilovka, the enemy gains the ability to control the low-lying settlements with UAVs.

Russian fighters intercept enemy infiltration groups and strike them with drone strikes, and sometimes artillery. Meanwhile, on the western flank, the initiative remains with Russian units operating in Zaporizhia Region.

📌 Trends in the Dnipropetrovsk direction remain largely negative — for several months now, the enemy maintains the ability to insert new groups across the Volchya river. This raises questions about the presence of Russian Armed Forces units across a vast area of terrain south of the river, since footage from near Komar appears regularly.

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• 📝Nowhere to Run📝

The encirclement in the east of the Burluk direction gradually tightens. Ukrainian formations fail to break through a reliable "corridor" out of it, while Russian forces systematically destroy disorganized enemy units.

➡️Recently emerged footage from objective control indicates that the "northerners" freed Shyroke. Reports of this came several days ago, but only now has it been possible to clarify the current front configuration in this sector.

➡️Forward assault groups already press the enemy in the territory of Komysarivka. Fighting for the village continues, while in the hedgerows to the north and in the vicinity of the border town Rublene AFU presence still persists in pockets.

➡️Meanwhile, the "northerners" confidently advance toward the center of the "cauldron." On the morning of October 9, reports emerged of fighting beginning for Lukashove and Lobanivka. However, the front configuration here requires additional clarification.

❗️The capture of Lobanivka matters for strengthening the southern flank of the encirclement, which complicates potential AFU breakout attempts. Already, enemy transport regularly takes fire from Russian drone operators, and further expansion of the control zone will completely isolate the enemy from ground supply.

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