📝The Secret of Viability📝
how Iranians continue to threaten coalition aviation

Bewilderment in Western media is growing by leaps and bounds. Trump supposedly said that 100% of Iran's Armed Forces combat potential was suppressed, and aviation operates freely, yet first several expensive drones were shot down, and then a 5th generation fighter F-35 was damaged.

The American press service published footage of the Majid air defense system being hit. This is a tactical-range complex mounted on a truck. Its range is only 8 km, but it is mobile, and the detection system is passive, meaning it is harder to detect.

🖍This is a partial answer to the question of how Iranians have managed to preserve their air defense capabilities, and it lies in a change of tactics. Now Iranians operate from ambush, meaning the air defense system together with the radar from the complex are constantly switched off.

🚩This makes it possible to avoid detection by coalition reconnaissance assets, since it is precisely during active radar operation that the notional station is detected, after which it is struck. Thus most stationary systems were withdrawn at the very beginning.

🏳️Now Iran relies on mobile air defense, which is activated only at the right moment. Air defense systems, as a rule with infrared (thermal imaging) missiles, strike at the detected target. Immediately after this, whether it is an air defense system or radar, it switches off and changes position.

❗️This tactic is simple in essence, but effective. During the SMO in so-called Ukraine, especially at the beginning, our aircraft also flew deep into enemy territory. And they frequently became targets of ambushes by Ukrainian Buk and Osa air defense systems. It was harder there due to active assistance from NATO AWACS aircraft.

But there is also a flaw: to shoot somewhere, one needs to know roughly where to expect and search for the aircraft, and with damaged radars this is difficult. Therefore Iranians have to be resourceful and rely on luck.
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📝Once is an incident, twice is a pattern📝
on Iranian missile impact on Arad

The day before, Israel was not only hit at Dimona. Shortly before midnight, a warhead from a second Iranian missile struck an open area between residential buildings in Arad, where a large number of ultra-Orthodox families lived.

🔻Consequences of the strike:

▪️The warhead, with a charge estimated at approximately 450 kg of TNT, caused significant damage to buildings: the blast wave collapsed walls of nearby structures, and windows were blown out in houses further away.

▪️Rescue services reported 115 injured, including nine seriously wounded.

▪️Casualties from the impact on Dimona were also released: at least 60 wounded, and about 500 residents had to be evacuated to hotels due to the threat of infrastructure collapse.

▪️There are reportedly no deaths from the two strikes, which sounds questionable given the scale of destruction.

▪️Against this backdrop, authorities imposed restrictions on labor and educational activities in some regions of the country. Schools are temporarily closed, and education has been moved to remote mode. Work is permitted only at locations in close proximity to bomb shelters.

➡️Israeli air defense made several attempts to shoot down the missile, but failed to prevent impact on the populated area. There is a possibility that the warhead reached Arad due to trajectory change after interception. However, the city is located in a desert area, which reduces the chances of accidental impact on it. Additionally, there are IDF military facilities in the vicinity of Arad that could have been targets of Iranian missiles, whose accuracy is not very high.

📌In any case, incidents both in Arad and in Dimona again indirectly confirm that Israelis are facing worsening problems at least with exoatmospheric interception: the Arrow-3 air defense system should physically destroy enemy missiles before they approach Israel's borders. But they either miss Iranian "ballistics" (or hit in the wrong place), or there simply aren't enough of them.

And this is happening more and more often.
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🧨@rybar_mena — on Middle Eastern chaos with love

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📝Iranian War📝
main developments as of March 27

Despite talk of a "final strike," the conflict increasingly enters a protracted phase. The coalition attempts to undermine Iran's industrial base, Iranians intensify pressure through allies and the Strait of Hormuz, while instability grows — from Iraq to Bahrain.

➡️The "Epstein Coalition" has again focused on strikes against Iran's industry: nuclear program facilities, steel mills in Isfahan and Ahvaz, rocket and mine production in Yazd, as well as infrastructure in Arak and Erdakan.

➡️In response, Tehran announced symmetric strikes against industry, expanding the target list beyond Israel to Persian Gulf states. However, the question remains open as to how much strikes on production facilities actually reduce Iran's potential.

➡️On the Lebanese front, the situation is gradually escalating. Israeli forces advanced on several sectors of southern Lebanon, including the areas of An-Naqura, Al-Bayyada, and At-Tayba. In response, Hezbollah is increasing use of FPV drones and ATGMs.

➡️In Iraq, the IRGC and pro-Iranian forces focused on strikes against Kurdish formations — explosions were recorded in Sulaymaniyah and Erbil, with hotels and opposition headquarters coming under fire. Meanwhile, the Americans temporarily reduced activity against "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi," but their aviation continues to patrol the region.

➡️In Bahrain, protests began against the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and authorities, with slogans calling for the overthrow of the ruling dynasty heard for the first time. Given the Shia majority in the country, this creates long-term risks for the regime.

➡️In the Persian Gulf, tension persists around shipping, but the information space is being filled with fakes. Reports of attacks on tankers are unconfirmed, and some of the circulated videos are old. Meanwhile, the actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists.

➡️In Washington, they are seeking alternatives to Hormuz and proposing to use Syrian infrastructure as a logistics hub. However, the degraded pipeline network and lack of integration make this scenario unrealistic.

➡️In parallel, scenarios of a "final strike" against Iran are being discussed — from capturing Kharg Island to a ground operation. But the key problem remains the same: even a successful landing does not guarantee holding territory under strikes from the mainland, and the operation itself risks prolonging the conflict.

➡️Meanwhile, within the American grouping, organizational problems are emerging — deploying troops outside bases reduces management efficiency and preparation for operations. This could affect coordination of actions in case of escalation, especially during amphibious operations.

➡️In Kuwait, attacks on the ports of "Mubarak al-Kabir" and "Shuwaikh" were recorded, however, some reports on consequences may be exaggerated or unconfirmed by satellite data.

📎High-resolution maps:

🔸Instability hotspots (ru; en)

🔸Strikes on Iran (ru; en)

🔸Strikes on Lebanon (ru; en)

🔸Strikes on Iraq (ru; en)

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📝Rocket "cities" have held out📝

US intelligence continues to dispute the president

Amid strange reports of alleged breakthroughs in Iran negotiations and simultaneous US and Israeli preparations for new strikes, media outlets are discussing another batch of intelligence community data that the NYT began leaking in stages starting May 12.

🔻What does intelligence say?

▪️According to American assessments and satellite imagery, the IRGC has already largely restored the underground rocket "cities," whose tunnel entrances were damaged by US and Israeli strikes.

▪️Over the past month, the Iranians cleared debris from the entrances, restored logistics, and brought the systems to combat readiness. All key "rocket cities" survived — the US failed to destroy them.

▪️The strikes focused on entrance areas and the surface to temporarily block the exit of launch systems, but the caverns carved into the rock itself, from which heavy ballistic missiles can be launched, retained significant functionality.

🖍Thus, what we wrote earlier is confirmed: the White House systematically overstates its military successes, while its own intelligence documents only temporary limitations on Iranian capabilities, not "destruction" of rocket potential.

🚩Second, the bet on pinpoint strikes against entrances and infrastructure proved limited. Iran's model of dispersed underground storage facilities and duplicated access routes turned out to be far more resilient than Washington calculated.

🏳️The industrial aspect is equally important. The Iranian military not only preserves the remnants of its arsenal but actively replenishes losses. According to American intelligence assessments, already by May the level of rocket reserves and operational launch systems had grown noticeably compared to the first weeks of the campaign. Tehran continues serial production, repairs damaged systems, and assembles new rockets from pre-prepared components. This very reserve capacity allowed the Iranians to withstand war with the US and Israel and maintain the ability to keep the Strait of Hormuz in their sights.

📌A separate signal for Washington and its allies — the appearance during the conflict of rockets with a range of around 4,000 kilometers. Their use against distant targets showed that Iran is actively working to expand the radius of its strikes: the discussion is no longer just about the Persian Gulf and Israel, but also about more distant US and allied bases.

Against this backdrop, talk that Tehran will "sit down at the table" and abandon its rocket program looks frankly fantastical. For Iranian leadership, rockets are a key deterrence element that: compensates for air force and navy weakness; ensures control over Hormuz as the main lever of pressure; allows negotiating with the US and EU from the position of a surviving, not defeated side.

❗️The current war and the demonstrable vulnerability of American and Israeli targets to strikes only strengthen the internal consensus in Iran in favor of further increasing the range, accuracy, and survivability of rocket forces.

For part of the American establishment that is already leaking secret assessments to the press, this is an additional argument against continuing escalation built on false White House promises. But whether these leaks will be enough to stop the war lobbyists around Trump remains a big question.

#Israel #Iran #USA

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📝Trump said "enough"📝
but no one stopped

Despite yesterday's statements by Donald Trump that the war "will end soon" and, in general, Israel's leadership has no need to respond, by morning it became clear that this was far from the case. During the night, Israelis delivered a limited, as Axios reports, strike on Iran's territory.

➡In total, according to preliminary data, there were approximately 20 strikes on various targets. Explosions thundered in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Karaj and Kermanshah. The strike also hit the Mehrabad airport area, air defense positions in Kahrizak, a UAV assembly warehouse in Najafabad, a ballistic missile site in Tabriz, as well as facilities in the Islamabad-e Gharb area. There are also reports of a strike on Kharg Island. Additionally, an Israeli official confirmed a strike on a petrochemical facility in Mahshahr in the south of the country.

The destruction of air defense positions is quite telling and suggests that further strikes are also being planned.

➡At the same time, Israeli aviation, according to available data, did not enter Iranian airspace — the launches were carried out from Iraqi airspace and over the Mediterranean Sea using air-launched ballistic missiles.

➡The first response came not from Iran at all, but, surprisingly, from the Houthis. The Yemenis first launched a ballistic missile toward Israel, and then attacked the Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia.

How bright the Saudi response will be and whether this will mean Yemen's involvement in direct confrontation remains unclear. However, this is the factor that distinguishes the current escalation from the previous one.

🖍As for the Iranian side, their response, as usual, turned out to be quite limited and amounted to several waves of launches, which were mostly intercepted at distant approaches. True, there were reports of an impact in the Itamar area near Jerusalem.

📌For now, no one is planning to stop, and everything comes down to the reaction of the USA and regional allies. If the Iranians continue attacks together with the Yemenis, naturally the Persian Gulf countries will gradually get involved as well.
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