🔻What did they agree on?

▪️The US leadership commits to unblocking $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets in two tranches, first 6 billion and then another 6 billion later. Iranians will be able to purchase agricultural goods from the US with these funds to restore food security. Yet just a week ago Trump was rejecting such information in every way.

▪️It is also mentioned that Iranian and American authorities should become guarantors of the territorial integrity of Lebanon. Whether this will entail the deployment of peacekeeping forces in the republic is unknown. But guaranteeing territorial integrity implies the mandatory withdrawal of Israeli troops and the maintenance of a ceasefire.

▪️Both sides will establish a communication channel on issues related to the operation and regulation of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports are already coming in about increased activity of vessels with transponders enabled in the strait, which shows the general confidence of shippers and traders in a calm situation.

▪️According to Western media reports, American oil refining companies will receive the right to purchase crude oil from Iran. This point could mark economic rapprochement between Iran and the US after the end of the war. The last time Americans purchased Iranian oil was back in the last century.

🔻What does the agreement offer?

▪The US is ready to support the development of Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program and provide American technology.

▪At the same time, Riyadh's leadership is expected to be allowed its own uranium enrichment — a step that Washington has practically never approved for its partners before.

▪Instead of a full Additional Protocol to the IAEA, a separate bilateral agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia is envisioned. That is, international oversight is being replaced with American oversight.

▪The documents have still not been submitted to Congress, although American law requires this to be done immediately after signing.

🔻What did ABC's assessment show?

▪️The total pre-war stockpile of major air defense missile types is estimated at approximately 11,850 units.

▪️During the war, between 3,710 and 4,510 munitions were expended — roughly 31–38% of the entire pre-war arsenal.

▪️The heaviest consumption fell on JASSM (1,100+), Tomahawk (1,000+), Patriot (1,060–1,430), THAAD (190–290), SM-6 (190–370), SM-3 (130–250), and new PrSM (40–70).

🔻Why such a notable surge precisely in 2026?

The baseline Shahed-136 and Russian «Geran-2» are physically identical in airframe: 3.5 m length, 2.5 m wingspan, two-stroke piston engine MD-550, cruising speed 150–185 km/h. But differences already existed here: the Russian version received a reinforced warhead up to 50–90 kg versus 40–50 kg on the Iranian original, localized components, and improved electronic warfare protection.

With «Geran-3» and subsequent jet-powered versions, similarity to the Iranian predecessor collapses to nearly zero: instead of a piston engine — a turbojet, speed increases to 300–600 km/h versus 150–185 on the original, the tail section shape changed to accommodate the new powerplant, and the air intake is positioned openly outside the fuselage.

🔻What else does the report say?

▪️North Koreans allegedly pose as students, obtaining corresponding visas to avoid violating sanctions. Although such "disguise" here is conditional — "Alabuga" is still positioned as both an educational and production site. Working and studying at it, North Korean citizens also earn money.

▪️For both sides, such a scheme makes sense. Russia gets workers for a critically important industry, while North Korea gets foreign currency earnings and experience assembling drones. Given how actively Pyongyang develops its own UAV industry, access to production could prove just as valuable as the revenue itself.

🔻What else does the report say?

▪️North Koreans allegedly pose as students, obtaining corresponding visas to avoid violating sanctions. Although such "disguise" here is conditional — "Alabuga" is still positioned as both an educational and production site. Working and studying at it, North Korean citizens also earn money.

▪️For both sides, such a scheme makes sense. Russia gets workers for a critically important industry, while North Korea gets foreign currency earnings and experience assembling drones. Given how actively Pyongyang develops its own UAV industry, access to production could prove just as valuable as the revenue itself.