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It will be interesting. We are here thinking.

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Forwarded from Rybar in English
๐Ÿ“The Rich Also Cry๐Ÿ“
Again on the cost of repelling Iranian attacks by Gulf states

News in the style of "Gulf states have air defense missiles left for 2-3 days" โ€” another reason to assess their spending on repelling Iranian attacks. The problem here is that we have limited input data โ€” only official figures on the number of intercepted missiles and drones for Bahrain, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.

Since all estimates are approximate, for objectivity we'll take them purely at the "lower bound." Let's assume that to intercept "ballistic" missiles, countries used PAC-3 missiles from their Patriot systems. We'll take the minimum consumption โ€” 2 missiles per 1 target.

With drones it's more complicated: short and medium-range air defense systems are almost absent there (we're not counting the remaining Emirati "Pantsirs" that weren't transferred to Libya), and footage of anti-aircraft gun operations is absent. Therefore, we'll assume that AIM-9 and MICA missiles from fighter jets were used. We'll take the minimum consumption โ€” 1 missile per 1 target.

โ—๏ธWith these parameters, it turns out that over just over three days of conflict, the Gulf states (excluding Saudi Arabia) spent almost $10 billion on air defense/anti-missile systems alone.

And this is the lower bound based on official data: if they spent 4+ missiles instead of 2 to counter Iranian ballistic missiles (which is more realistic), fired "Patriots" at drones, or used THAAD anti-missile systems costing $20 million each, the sum increases many times over.

So even for wealthy Persian Gulf states, countering Iranian strikes is an expensive affair. Especially considering they bear the costs of someone else's military operation.

๐Ÿ“High-resolution infographic
๐Ÿ“English version

#Bahrain #Iran #Qatar #Kuwait #UAE
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
๐Ÿ“Iranian War๐Ÿ“
main developments as of March 27

Despite talk of a "final strike," the conflict increasingly enters a protracted phase. The coalition attempts to undermine Iran's industrial base, Iranians intensify pressure through allies and the Strait of Hormuz, while instability grows โ€” from Iraq to Bahrain.

โžก๏ธThe "Epstein Coalition" has again focused on strikes against Iran's industry: nuclear program facilities, steel mills in Isfahan and Ahvaz, rocket and mine production in Yazd, as well as infrastructure in Arak and Erdakan.

โžก๏ธIn response, Tehran announced symmetric strikes against industry, expanding the target list beyond Israel to Persian Gulf states. However, the question remains open as to how much strikes on production facilities actually reduce Iran's potential.

โžก๏ธOn the Lebanese front, the situation is gradually escalating. Israeli forces advanced on several sectors of southern Lebanon, including the areas of An-Naqura, Al-Bayyada, and At-Tayba. In response, Hezbollah is increasing use of FPV drones and ATGMs.

โžก๏ธIn Iraq, the IRGC and pro-Iranian forces focused on strikes against Kurdish formations โ€” explosions were recorded in Sulaymaniyah and Erbil, with hotels and opposition headquarters coming under fire. Meanwhile, the Americans temporarily reduced activity against "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi," but their aviation continues to patrol the region.

โžก๏ธIn Bahrain, protests began against the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and authorities, with slogans calling for the overthrow of the ruling dynasty heard for the first time. Given the Shia majority in the country, this creates long-term risks for the regime.

โžก๏ธIn the Persian Gulf, tension persists around shipping, but the information space is being filled with fakes. Reports of attacks on tankers are unconfirmed, and some of the circulated videos are old. Meanwhile, the actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists.

โžก๏ธIn Washington, they are seeking alternatives to Hormuz and proposing to use Syrian infrastructure as a logistics hub. However, the degraded pipeline network and lack of integration make this scenario unrealistic.

โžก๏ธIn parallel, scenarios of a "final strike" against Iran are being discussed โ€” from capturing Kharg Island to a ground operation. But the key problem remains the same: even a successful landing does not guarantee holding territory under strikes from the mainland, and the operation itself risks prolonging the conflict.

โžก๏ธMeanwhile, within the American grouping, organizational problems are emerging โ€” deploying troops outside bases reduces management efficiency and preparation for operations. This could affect coordination of actions in case of escalation, especially during amphibious operations.

โžก๏ธIn Kuwait, attacks on the ports of "Mubarak al-Kabir" and "Shuwaikh" were recorded, however, some reports on consequences may be exaggerated or unconfirmed by satellite data.

๐Ÿ“ŽHigh-resolution maps:

๐Ÿ”ธInstability hotspots (ru; en)

๐Ÿ”ธStrikes on Iran (ru; en)

๐Ÿ”ธStrikes on Lebanon (ru; en)

๐Ÿ”ธStrikes on Iraq (ru; en)


#Iran #digest #Israel #Iraq #Kuwait #map #Lebanon #Syria #USA
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @
๐Ÿ“And the thunder did not cease๐Ÿ“

It's no wonder the Middle East is called a powder keg. Over the past night, another major exchange of strikes occurred between the USA and Iran.

โžก๏ธAlready in the evening, the Iranians began attacking positions in Iraqi Kurdistan, including major cities such as Sulaymaniyah and Erbil. Strikes were carried out mainly with Shahed-136 UAVs.

โžก๏ธThere are also reports of Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia, the western province of Yanbu with its namesake center. A major oil terminal is located there, likely the target of the strikes.

โžก๏ธAnd in Bahrain, an American base came under fire. According to Iranian claims, the targets of the attacks were aircraft hangars, parking areas and fuel tanks at Sheikh Isa airbase, as well as bridges connecting this airbase to other facilities. Whether they were hit remains unknown.

โžก๏ธIn Kuwait things are also tense. The IRGC claims to have struck a troop assembly area at Aridjan base, as well as a radar station at Ali Al-Salem airbase.

โžก๏ธIn Jordan, two US bases came under fire, resulting in several American military personnel being wounded. They have been burning for quite some time, with no one attempting to extinguish them yet.

โžก๏ธIn Iran itself, American bombing strikes hit the cities of Lar, Ahvaz, Yazd, Bushehr and Qeshm island, located in the Strait of Hormuz. Strikes were also carried out on the cities of Bandar Abbas and Hajji Abad, where 116 communication towers were destroyed.

โ—๏ธA new escalation is on the horizon, if it hasn't already begun. Iranian strikes on oil facilities and infrastructure show they have returned to their old and, as it turned out, successful tactics.
#Bahrain #Iraq #Iran #Jordan #Kuwait #Syria #SaudiArabia #USA
๐Ÿงจ@rybar_mena โ€” on Middle Eastern chaos with love

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