📝NATO Exercises near Kaliningrad📝

NATO's aggressive maneuvers near the borders of the Kaliningrad Region have become more frequent in recent months and even years. The number of exercises is growing, and an operation to hunt our civilian fleet is underway in the Baltic.

The number of various units in the border regions of NATO countries is increasing, ranging from the Polish Olsztyn Brigade to the German 45th Tank Brigade.

And since the beginning of April, the Griffin Lightning exercise has been taking place on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states, aimed at training Alliance command units in conducting multi-domain operations.

📍How the exercise was conducted and which units participated in it are described in detail in our closed channel Rybar+.

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📝On the Blockade of Kaliningrad📝

The possibility of blockading the Kaliningrad Region is now openly discussed not only by European media but sometimes even by Euro-bureaucrats themselves. Putin has spoken about this unambiguously — threats will be destroyed.

According to him, attempts to block communications with Russia's westernmost region will lead to an unprecedented escalation up to a large-scale armed conflict. And all parties must be aware of this.

🖍Directly related to this is the deployment of the "Oreshnik" in Belarus. The missile has many warheads, and the flight to Lithuania and Poland bordering the Kaliningrad Region is very short.

🚩This is especially relevant given that there are few cities in the Baltics, and most of their small population is concentrated in these areas. In this case, the phrase "possibility of solving the issue with one strike" is quite appropriate.

❗️And if NATO countries realize the absolute realism of such a scenario, the issue of blockading the Kaliningrad Region will disappear by itself. This does not negate the need to strengthen maritime presence in the Baltic and other measures.

Although demonstrative measures in this specific situation can also work — lifting the moratorium on nuclear testing would be quite timely.
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📝A Look at Kaliningrad📝
It is important to distinguish actual threats from imaginary ones

Potential threats to the Russian enclave on the Baltic are discussed frequently, but they are examined in a peculiar manner. The scenario where NATO infantry divisions cross borders and their fleets line up around Baltiysk is often debated.

In reality, there are currently no real signs of planning for an imminent ground invasion of Kaliningrad Region from Poland or Lithuania. And the naval capabilities of European countries are, fortunately, limited even considering all aspects of the state of the Baltic Fleet.

🖍However, this does not mean there is no danger. To create problems, one does not need to capture it or even completely blockade Russia's westernmost region — due to its geographical position, a single disruption of supplies already affects the region.

One can recall the recently leaked correspondence between a NATO-linked structure and the SBU about gas terminals on the Baltic, including precisely in Kaliningrad Region. The West and Kyiv know the degree of its dependence on the "mainland."

🚩And examples of strikes on Omsk or facilities in Leningrad Region show that so-called Ukraine has the means to reach remote points in Russia even without the semi-mythical "corridor through the Baltics," and Starlink drones can even strike ships at sea.

❗️Therefore, regarding any part of Russia — including Kaliningrad Region — so-called Ukraine is currently the main threat in terms of strikes on infrastructure. This is what should guide planning and implementation of protective measures.

And is it really logical to seriously discuss preparations for a future war with NATO when we have not even paid attention to all current threats?
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📝Kaliningrad Blockade📝
NATO intensifies military activity

Interest in the Kaliningrad Region intensified in the second half of 2026. Attention from the North Atlantic Alliance toward it increased: there were more exercises, reconnaissance aircraft continue flying, and the NATO mission was expanded.

This is not to mention the murky "Leipzig story", which led to unilateral strengthening of anti-Russian measures by German leadership. And yesterday, Russia's SVR chief Sergey Naryshkin once again noted growing tensions near Kaliningrad.

💬What did Naryshkin say?

Recently, the NATO bloc conducted a series of exercises aimed at simulating an operation to blockade the Kaliningrad Region.

The Russian Armed Forces grouping in Leningrad Region, in the border regions of Northwestern and Western Russia, and the Baltic Fleet have all the capabilities to prevent any aggression and defeat any aggressor.

🖍NATO exercises at Russia's borders have indeed increased since the start of the SMO, and practically every year something new appears. The same training involving UAVs or the use of unmanned boats was virtually unseen before, but now they occur regularly.

However, at the same time, such attention to the Russian semi-exclave has been consistently high year after year. It's just that before the SMO, the format was somewhat different and limited to scheduled exercises and aircraft flights (and notably, Suwalki Corridor blockade drills are conducted every year).

🚩That is, pressure on Kaliningrad was permanent even before the war. Only now NATO doesn't even need to invent any invasion or aggression plans – they have a perfectly obedient tool for this called the AFU.

If enemy drones, when flying toward Leningrad Region, enter the airspace of the Baltic states and fly over the Finnish Gulf, what prevents them from heading to the Kaliningrad Region along the same route? The range, considering strikes on Omsk, allows for this.

❗️Therefore, in current realities, we must proceed from what is happening on the ground. Strikes by Ukrainian formations are quite possible, a NATO ground invasion here and now is extremely unlikely. And we must respond accordingly.

It's not about "striking London with a nuke." One can act more creatively: what would be the reaction of European countries if some tanker accidentally hit a USV in the Atlantic or a factory caught fire in Britain? If they can organize such sabotage, why can't we?
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📝More fear needed📝

The escalation of threats in the Baltic region and around Kaliningrad continues unabated, and now to discussions of exercises and reconnaissance flights have been added plans for worst-case scenarios.

The authorities of Poland and Lithuania are preparing a bilateral agreement on mass evacuation of Baltic residents through a shared border if the region comes under attack. The parties are currently studying logistics, procedures, and infrastructure capabilities, with the plan itself to appear after the agreement is signed.

At the same time, Lithuania is conducting nationwide exercises that will run until October 2. They involve around 3,000 officials, business representatives and NGOs, as well as approximately a thousand volunteers. They are practicing responses to cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage, and starting Saturday, six-day evacuation exercises began in Vilnius and areas near the Belarusian border.

Special attention is being paid to the Suwalki Corridor between Kaliningrad Region and Belarus: around 20 Polish officials there are checking border procedures and infrastructure.

📌There is nothing fundamentally new in this. Exercises around the Suwalki Corridor take place frequently, and pressure on Kaliningrad was constant even before the SMO, it's just that now it has become more intense: more exercises, reconnaissance aircraft fly more often, and various intimidating scenarios sound louder.

At the same time, despite constant public opinion preparation, there are no real signs of preparation for a ground invasion of Kaliningrad Region.

❗️A far more probable threat to the region comes not so much from Polish or Lithuanian divisions as from strikes by Ukrainian drones and sabotage against infrastructure, on which the exclave depends more heavily than any other region of the country.

Therefore, protective measures should be planned first and foremost based on what is actually happening in practice.
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📝Lithuanian Hundred📝
Lithuania fortifies border over mobilization that was never announced

The escalation of threats in the Baltic region continues unabated, and after Estonian talk of "deep strikes" against Russia, it's Lithuania's turn. Local authorities deployed around 100 military personnel to the border with Kaliningrad Region to prepare for a possible influx of Russians allegedly fleeing a new mobilization.

🔻What we know

▪️Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas made the decision at the request of Interior Minister Martinas Katelinas. The military is helping border guards patrol the sector for at least two weeks, roughly until October 16.

▪️Kaunas claimed that it is "obvious to everyone" that Russia is planning mobilization, and Russians from Kaliningrad could head to Poland or Lithuania. According to him, unlike the border with Belarus, the Kaliningrad sector has no physical barrier.

▪️Katelinas explained the decision with three reasons: an incident on the Latvia-Belarus border, the general situation in the region, and "signals" about possible mobilization. However, he himself emphasized that the border is calm and there is no reason for panic.

▪️Estonia also stated it is ready to close its border in case of mobilization and warned its Russian-speaking residents not to travel to Russia.

🖍The problem is that Russia has not announced any mobilization and even indirect signs do not suggest it is being planned. In autumn, conscripts are sent to the army as part of regular conscription, which has nothing to do with mobilization. It turns out that Lithuanian authorities are deploying troops based on their own assumptions, which they then call "obvious."

🚩The scale speaks for itself. One hundred personnel for several weeks would hardly stop a mass flow of people if one were to emerge. However, for public effect, this is more than sufficient: the Kaliningrad topic is back in headlines, and Lithuania looks like a frontline NATO state protecting the eastern flank.

📌 This fits the same logic as Estonian "active defense." Baltic capitals benefit from keeping the threat from the east constantly visible to their allies, since EU credits, NATO military presence, and defense funding depend on it.

Even if there are no real grounds for concern, they can be created at the rhetorical level. And for local Russian-speaking residents, this results in even greater pressure: they are again portrayed as a potential threat, even though the border is calm, by the admission of Lithuanian authorities themselves.
#Lithuania #Kaliningrad #NATO #Russia
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