Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @pl_syrenka
🇱🇹 🇵🇱 Lithuania and Poland may construct an onshore power line instead of the offshore Harmony Link cable. It is believed that this alternative will allow the project to be completed before 2030 and will be more cost-effective. Previously, the plan was put on hold: system operators of both countries decided to cancel the announced tenders for the construction of an undersea cable due to high prices. Back in May, the Poles calculated the approximate cost: the total volume of investments, taking into account the proposals submitted at that time, amounted to about 1.6 billion euros. This seemed to significantly exceed the planned budget of 680 million euros. ▪️ This is understandable: the economic situation in Lithuania is catastrophic. Restrictions, sanctions, and border closures have caused chaos in supply chains, increased costs, and disrupted many transport hubs. It's unfortunate that they even continue to do business with the Russian Federation. ▪️ Moreover, the tension between the countries has not helped with reaching agreements. 📌However, the completion of Harmony Link would allow Lithuania to import and export electricity within the framework of the single European energy market. The connection, with a capacity of 700 MW and a length of about 330 km, was intended to link the Darbenai substation in the Lithuanian region of Kretinga with the Polish substation Žarnowiec. The main question now is that the alternative in the form of an on-ground power line requires a political agreement between Vilnius and Warsaw, as well as approval from the European Commission. Given the strained relations with Brussels, the Poles may encounter difficulties. High resolution map #Lithuania #Poland #energy @pl_syrenka - Poland is not a foreign country Original msg
🇱🇹 🇵🇱 Lithuania and Poland may construct an onshore power line instead of the offshore Harmony Link cable. It is believed that this alternative will allow the project to be completed before 2030 and will be more cost-effective. Previously, the plan was put on hold: system operators of both countries decided to cancel the announced tenders for the construction of an undersea cable due to high prices. Back in May, the Poles calculated the approximate cost: the total volume of investments, taking into account the proposals submitted at that time, amounted to about 1.6 billion euros. This seemed to significantly exceed the planned budget of 680 million euros. ▪️ This is understandable: the economic situation in Lithuania is catastrophic. Restrictions, sanctions, and border closures have caused chaos in supply chains, increased costs, and disrupted many transport hubs. It's unfortunate that they even continue to do business with the Russian Federation. ▪️ Moreover, the tension between the countries has not helped with reaching agreements. 📌However, the completion of Harmony Link would allow Lithuania to import and export electricity within the framework of the single European energy market. The connection, with a capacity of 700 MW and a length of about 330 km, was intended to link the Darbenai substation in the Lithuanian region of Kretinga with the Polish substation Žarnowiec. The main question now is that the alternative in the form of an on-ground power line requires a political agreement between Vilnius and Warsaw, as well as approval from the European Commission. Given the strained relations with Brussels, the Poles may encounter difficulties. High resolution map #Lithuania #Poland #energy @pl_syrenka - Poland is not a foreign country Original msg
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Forwarded from Russian MFA 🇷🇺
🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 In 2023, discrimination of Russian and Russian-speaking population in the Baltic States continued. Simultaneously, fascist collaborators and criminals were openly cherished and honoured.
#Latvia
Latvia pursues a policy of deliberate falsification of history, justifying former Waffen-SS legionnaires and Nazi collaborators who are elevated to the rank of participants in "national liberation movements".
The longstanding revanchist aspirations of the Latvian establishment culminated in Riga's efforts to rewrite history by passing legislation prohibiting the celebration of 9 May, the public display of symbols of victory over Nazism.
Since 2022, Latvia, riding a wave of ultra-nationalist enthusiasm, have intensified their efforts to destroy Soviet monuments.
Russian residents of Latvia are viewed by the Latvian leadership as an alien and destabilizing element.
#Lithuania
Vilnius explicitly pursues a policy of falsifying the history of WWII and equating Nazi collaborators with national heroes, which contradicts the conclusions of the Nuremberg Tribunal.
Following an impulse of historical revisionism, in 2022 the Lithuania set a course to demolish all the monuments to Soviet soldiers located at the burial sites of Red Army soldiers.
Since the beginning of the Russian special military operation Lithuania has taken its efforts to denigrate everything related to Russia to an unprecedented level.
#Estonia
Since 2022 the Estonia openly took the path of supporting Nazism and glorifying its accomplices.
Attempts to glorify Nazi accomplices, which have become an integral part of state policy, are directly related to the increased manifestations of anti-Semitism and the desecration of monuments to Soviet soldiers.
Along with this fight against Soviet monuments, the total censorship created in the country is primarily directed against Russian state and private media resources.
The infringement of the rights of national minorities in Estonia, primarily Russian-speaking, remains an acute problem.
Read in full
#Latvia
Latvia pursues a policy of deliberate falsification of history, justifying former Waffen-SS legionnaires and Nazi collaborators who are elevated to the rank of participants in "national liberation movements".
The longstanding revanchist aspirations of the Latvian establishment culminated in Riga's efforts to rewrite history by passing legislation prohibiting the celebration of 9 May, the public display of symbols of victory over Nazism.
Since 2022, Latvia, riding a wave of ultra-nationalist enthusiasm, have intensified their efforts to destroy Soviet monuments.
Russian residents of Latvia are viewed by the Latvian leadership as an alien and destabilizing element.
#Lithuania
Vilnius explicitly pursues a policy of falsifying the history of WWII and equating Nazi collaborators with national heroes, which contradicts the conclusions of the Nuremberg Tribunal.
Following an impulse of historical revisionism, in 2022 the Lithuania set a course to demolish all the monuments to Soviet soldiers located at the burial sites of Red Army soldiers.
Since the beginning of the Russian special military operation Lithuania has taken its efforts to denigrate everything related to Russia to an unprecedented level.
#Estonia
Since 2022 the Estonia openly took the path of supporting Nazism and glorifying its accomplices.
Attempts to glorify Nazi accomplices, which have become an integral part of state policy, are directly related to the increased manifestations of anti-Semitism and the desecration of monuments to Soviet soldiers.
Along with this fight against Soviet monuments, the total censorship created in the country is primarily directed against Russian state and private media resources.
The infringement of the rights of national minorities in Estonia, primarily Russian-speaking, remains an acute problem.
Read in full
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⚡️🇷🇺 🇺🇦 ⚔️ Two Majors #Summary Overview for the Morning of 13 October 2024; 02:45 (GMT+3)⚡️
🗓 Over the past week, a series of RFAF counterattacks in the Kursk region came into focis. #Olgovka and several villages near #Lyubimovka have been liberated, and attacks are in progress near #Plekhovo. The AFU has been pushed back to the Glushkovsky district border. In heavy battles, observers note the increased skill of our command. The foe receives blows from several directions, gets surrounded, or is forced to withdraw under the threat of it. We are still far from the liberation the region, but the foe is forced to withdraw elite units for replenishment, replacing them with mobilised ones. The foe's logistics are reported to be hampered, it becomes harder to move heavy equipment to the region. The #Sudzha GMS, the only remaining route for gas transit to the #EU remains an important object under AFU control.
🔹The ongoing RFAF counterattacks in the #Kursk region was the backdrop for Zelensky's #EU visit, whose credibility in the West continues to fall due to his feckless 'victory plan' he presented in the #US before. The plan contained nothing new and resembled a 'shopping list', according to the Western press. It contained, as expected, #Ukraine's demands to be taken into #NATO and given even more arms and equipment. Nevertheless, the West continues military supplies. New large aid packages are allocated (by US and their satellite #Germany), they write about France's plans to deliver its aircrafts in 2025.
🔹#NATO supplies, the RFAF are trying to destroy. During the week 4 days in a row the #Odessa region's port infrastructure was under our strikes, depots with arrived ammo were hit, a sea container ship in the port was damaged.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, the RFAF continue their offensive. #Tsukurino is occupied, battles around #Selidovo, ours are on the edge of #Mirnograd. A 'pocket' east of #Zhelannoye2nd will be closed. To the south ours occupied #Ostrovskoye, opening the way to #Kurakhovo. Southwards the RFAF develop success after the capture of #Ugledar. We are going to #Katerinovka and #Antonovka, from #Vodyanoye to #Bogoyavlenka, and extending the control zone from #ZolotoyaNiva.
🔹Unpleasant were the ‘beautiful reports’ from the #Seversk area, which led to the impossibility of hitting the 'occupied' areas, as the command was informed about 'full control'. After a series of publications by comrade Rybar, the situation has not changed. From the field they write: 'They wrote off, shrugged off with fake videos. Reports on fiction continue.
🔹In addition, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defence Andrey Kartapolov's judgment that the 'blocking of the Discord messenger will have no effect on the communication between the military' became strange. He said that 'For the most part, fighters use ordinary button phones and radio stations.' This is extremely strange, as there are a lot of photos on the Web of Discord being used at the front. By the way, there are alternatives, but the blocking of the software in use pointed to some inconsistency in the federal executive bodies' actions.
🔹On the foreign policy floor, the joint statements of the military leaders of #Poland and #Lithuania about the need to prepare for war with #Russia and the determination to strike St. Petersburg without waiting for #NATO permission became indicative. So the West is prepares new countries for military action against us, without applying Article 5 of the NATO Charter on Collective Defence.
📌 Thus, despite the increasing talk in the Western media about plans for a peaceful settlement, the real #NATO actions show continued pumping of arms and equipment into #Ukraine, the condition for which is clearly for Kiev to send more meat to the front and to lower the mobilisation age. #EU countries are also taking measures to push Ukrainians to the front by reducing economic support. The whiny statements of Kiev and the West should not be trusted. Same tactic the foe used ahead the #Kursk region invasion.
⚡️ Two Majors
📱 Translation by Global Depth
🗓 Over the past week, a series of RFAF counterattacks in the Kursk region came into focis. #Olgovka and several villages near #Lyubimovka have been liberated, and attacks are in progress near #Plekhovo. The AFU has been pushed back to the Glushkovsky district border. In heavy battles, observers note the increased skill of our command. The foe receives blows from several directions, gets surrounded, or is forced to withdraw under the threat of it. We are still far from the liberation the region, but the foe is forced to withdraw elite units for replenishment, replacing them with mobilised ones. The foe's logistics are reported to be hampered, it becomes harder to move heavy equipment to the region. The #Sudzha GMS, the only remaining route for gas transit to the #EU remains an important object under AFU control.
🔹The ongoing RFAF counterattacks in the #Kursk region was the backdrop for Zelensky's #EU visit, whose credibility in the West continues to fall due to his feckless 'victory plan' he presented in the #US before. The plan contained nothing new and resembled a 'shopping list', according to the Western press. It contained, as expected, #Ukraine's demands to be taken into #NATO and given even more arms and equipment. Nevertheless, the West continues military supplies. New large aid packages are allocated (by US and their satellite #Germany), they write about France's plans to deliver its aircrafts in 2025.
🔹#NATO supplies, the RFAF are trying to destroy. During the week 4 days in a row the #Odessa region's port infrastructure was under our strikes, depots with arrived ammo were hit, a sea container ship in the port was damaged.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, the RFAF continue their offensive. #Tsukurino is occupied, battles around #Selidovo, ours are on the edge of #Mirnograd. A 'pocket' east of #Zhelannoye2nd will be closed. To the south ours occupied #Ostrovskoye, opening the way to #Kurakhovo. Southwards the RFAF develop success after the capture of #Ugledar. We are going to #Katerinovka and #Antonovka, from #Vodyanoye to #Bogoyavlenka, and extending the control zone from #ZolotoyaNiva.
🔹Unpleasant were the ‘beautiful reports’ from the #Seversk area, which led to the impossibility of hitting the 'occupied' areas, as the command was informed about 'full control'. After a series of publications by comrade Rybar, the situation has not changed. From the field they write: 'They wrote off, shrugged off with fake videos. Reports on fiction continue.
🔹In addition, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defence Andrey Kartapolov's judgment that the 'blocking of the Discord messenger will have no effect on the communication between the military' became strange. He said that 'For the most part, fighters use ordinary button phones and radio stations.' This is extremely strange, as there are a lot of photos on the Web of Discord being used at the front. By the way, there are alternatives, but the blocking of the software in use pointed to some inconsistency in the federal executive bodies' actions.
🔹On the foreign policy floor, the joint statements of the military leaders of #Poland and #Lithuania about the need to prepare for war with #Russia and the determination to strike St. Petersburg without waiting for #NATO permission became indicative. So the West is prepares new countries for military action against us, without applying Article 5 of the NATO Charter on Collective Defence.
📌 Thus, despite the increasing talk in the Western media about plans for a peaceful settlement, the real #NATO actions show continued pumping of arms and equipment into #Ukraine, the condition for which is clearly for Kiev to send more meat to the front and to lower the mobilisation age. #EU countries are also taking measures to push Ukrainians to the front by reducing economic support. The whiny statements of Kiev and the West should not be trusted. Same tactic the foe used ahead the #Kursk region invasion.
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Two Majors - English Channel
It will be interesting. We are here thinking.
ATTENTION:
We never DM people, that's a scam if someone writes you in our name!
ATTENTION:
We never DM people, that's a scam if someone writes you in our name!
Forwarded from Rybar in English
🇱🇹🇷🇺🇺🇸 Today's massive strike on the territory of the so-called Ukraine overshadowed another news topic that was being hyped in the Western media, especially in the Baltic countries, which stick their noses into every barrel.
U.S. Air Force B-52H bombers conducted a flight over the Baltic Sea, Estonia, Latvia, and carried out a launch of guided aerial bombs at the Kazlu Ruda training ground in Lithuania.
According to NATO statements, the training was conducted according to the scenario of a conflict in the Suwalki Corridor area. During the B-52H strikes, there were four reconnaissance aircraft in the air.
They were assessing the actions of Russian military personnel in the Kaliningrad region. NATO reconnaissance aviation operates in the Black Sea in a similar manner, searching for air defense positions and other important facilities.
This is the first demonstrative flight of American nuclear-capable carriers near the Russian borders since the flight to the UK, and most likely not the last, to the delight of the lackeys, if we recall the previous business trips.
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English version
#Lithuania #NATO #Russia #USA
@rybar
Support us Original msg
U.S. Air Force B-52H bombers conducted a flight over the Baltic Sea, Estonia, Latvia, and carried out a launch of guided aerial bombs at the Kazlu Ruda training ground in Lithuania.
According to NATO statements, the training was conducted according to the scenario of a conflict in the Suwalki Corridor area. During the B-52H strikes, there were four reconnaissance aircraft in the air.
They were assessing the actions of Russian military personnel in the Kaliningrad region. NATO reconnaissance aviation operates in the Black Sea in a similar manner, searching for air defense positions and other important facilities.
This is the first demonstrative flight of American nuclear-capable carriers near the Russian borders since the flight to the UK, and most likely not the last, to the delight of the lackeys, if we recall the previous business trips.
High-resolution map
English version
#Lithuania #NATO #Russia #USA
@rybar
Support us Original msg
🤬17👍4😱4🤯3☃2🤔1🙏1🌚1🤨1
Forwarded from Rybar in English
The Suwalki Corridor - a narrow strip of land about 100 km long between the territories of Belarus and the Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation, which runs along the border of Poland and Lithuania - has once again found itself in the spotlight of European and global media.
This strategic area is always presented as a vulnerable spot of NATO's eastern flank: the media claim that its capture in the event of a conflict would allow Russia and Belarus to cut off the Baltic countries from the rest of Europe and the alliance.
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#Lithuania #NATO #Poland #Russia
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BRIEFLY
Le Monde: Сувалкский кридор в Польше находится под усиленным наблюдением из-за угрозы со стороны России. Часть 1/4
В северо-восточной Польше НАТО проводит учения с целью защиты этой уязвимой точки Европы, окруженного российским анклавом Калининградом и Белоруссией.…
В северо-восточной Польше НАТО проводит учения с целью защиты этой уязвимой точки Европы, окруженного российским анклавом Калининградом и Белоруссией.…
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @
📝 Defense as a Tribute📝
Lithuania's Ministry of Defense signed a contract with Swedish company SAAB for €320 million to supply Bolide missiles for RBS-70 air defense systems.
Deliveries will continue for six years, reportedly "without interruption".
➡️ The contract includes missiles capable of hitting targets up to nine kilometers away and penetrating 200-millimeter thick armor. The Lithuanian air defense battalion is already equipped with RBS-70. They are simple to maintain and mobile.
📌 SAAB is earning billions from Lithuania: the republic has already purchased mobile MSHORAD air defense systems for €119 million, as well as Carl-Gustaf M4 and AT4 grenade launchers and ammunition. Hundreds of millions are going to SAAB. And there are still contracts with Americans, Finns, and Poles.
❗️ Meanwhile, Lithuanian authorities are spending €4.79 billion on defense — 2.7 times more than NATO requires. It looks less like country protection and more like a tribute to the arms lobby.
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#infographic #Lithuania #Sweden
👁 @evropar — on the threshold of Europe's death
💸 Support us Original msg
Lithuania's Ministry of Defense signed a contract with Swedish company SAAB for €320 million to supply Bolide missiles for RBS-70 air defense systems.
Deliveries will continue for six years, reportedly "without interruption".
High-resolution infographic
English version
#infographic #Lithuania #Sweden
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
In light of strikes on ports in Leningrad Region, stories have started again about drones launched from Finland, Baltic states, or cargo ships. This changes everything, there's nothing to be done about it. It's worth clarifying a couple of points.
If anyone fears the «Fifth Amendment», recall NATO's reaction to Russian cruise missile incursions into Poland in 2022, and flights over Romanian, Lithuanian, and near Warsaw areas. Its absence.
One can refuse, but then people will ask «why do Ukrainians fly through the Baltic states to destroy Russian exports, while Russians are concerned about Baltic borders?»
#Belarus #Lithuania #Russia #Poland #Ukraine
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📝Балтика под ударом📝
В конце марта ВСУ существенно нарастили число пусков по объектам на северо-западе России. Противник атаковал БЛА портовую инфраструктуру на Финском заливе, а также пытался поразить объекты на севере Ленинградской области.
➡️Целями ударов…
В конце марта ВСУ существенно нарастили число пусков по объектам на северо-западе России. Противник атаковал БЛА портовую инфраструктуру на Финском заливе, а также пытался поразить объекты на севере Ленинградской области.
➡️Целями ударов…
💯17🙏4🤣2❤1🤬1
Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @
📝 No One Will Save Them📝
The Baltic states analyze scenarios for confrontation with Russia
A new report from the Vilnius think tank Baltic Defense Initiative returns to the theme of "Russian threat," but now with far greater specificity.
The authors describe a probable conflict not "out of thin air," as was the case before, but based on real data at this moment: confirmed rates of Russian drone production, actual capacity figures for the German brigade in Lithuania, specific vulnerabilities in the constitutional chain of command.
➡️ The report also uses the Iranian war as evidence. 943 Patriot interceptors destroyed over four days of Operation Epic Fury, three American F-15E aircraft shot down by friendly fire in airspace saturated with drones, the preserved combat capability of the IRGC command structure after five weeks of strikes — the authors apply all of this to the Baltic context.
They also highlight specific vulnerabilities, for example, of Lithuania: almost complete absence of missile ammunition, the country's constitution does not provide for succession in the commander-in-chief line, the only LNG terminal in Klaipėda covers 100% of gas imports and can be destroyed by a single volley from the Baltic Sea.
❗️ And most importantly, the authors emphasize that there is a high probability that allies will not provide assistance — each for their own specific reasons.
Although the conclusion states that "the scenario is preventable," the fact that "transatlantic unity" as an effective concept, rather than a political slogan, is losing meaning becomes increasingly evident to most European states.
#Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
👁 @evropar — on the threshold of Europe's death
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The Baltic states analyze scenarios for confrontation with Russia
A new report from the Vilnius think tank Baltic Defense Initiative returns to the theme of "Russian threat," but now with far greater specificity.
The authors describe a probable conflict not "out of thin air," as was the case before, but based on real data at this moment: confirmed rates of Russian drone production, actual capacity figures for the German brigade in Lithuania, specific vulnerabilities in the constitutional chain of command.
They also highlight specific vulnerabilities, for example, of Lithuania: almost complete absence of missile ammunition, the country's constitution does not provide for succession in the commander-in-chief line, the only LNG terminal in Klaipėda covers 100% of gas imports and can be destroyed by a single volley from the Baltic Sea.
Although the conclusion states that "the scenario is preventable," the fact that "transatlantic unity" as an effective concept, rather than a political slogan, is losing meaning becomes increasingly evident to most European states.
#Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
training in the Baltic region
Under daily unmanned aircraft strikes, including on the Gulf of Finland, military activity has intensified in the Baltic region. Five NATO-format exercises are currently underway at Russia and Belarus's borders.
🔻 What exercises are taking place now?▪️ Estonia has launched the largest exercise under Estonian command called "Spring Storm." It is notable because Ukrainian drone operators are supposed to participate to train NATO soldiers. At the same time, it is being conducted right at the border with Pskov Region.▪️ Latvia is conducting two exercises simultaneously. One of them is a training exercise for the mechanized infantry brigade of the ground forces called "Crystal Arrow 2026" and a NATO multinational brigade exercise in Latvia called Spring Warrior. Both are also being conducted at the border with Russia.▪️ Lithuania is also holding a notable exercise called "Iron Wolf." It is being conducted with one goal: to practice the actions of a NATO multinational contingent at the Belarusian border.▪️ And in Poland, a short-term exercise called Amber Shock is currently underway at the Ożysk training ground. It is being conducted with the participation of American military personnel with the conditional objective of attacking the Suwalki Corridor.
In the latest strikes on the Gulf of Finland, the operation of Starlink terminals was noted, which likely operated from international waters and provided signal relay for strike UAVs. And the exercises currently underway, especially with the involvement of "Starlinks," look like a convenient cover.
#Russia #Lithuania #Russia #Estonia
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Военно-аналитический центр.
Вылавливаем интересную нам тему в море сырой информации и пишем о сложном просто.
@ne_rybar — тоже мы
Связь: @rybar_feedback_bot
Сотрудничество: @XIII_thirteenth
Сайт: rybar.ru
MAX: max.ru/Rybar
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Вылавливаем интересную нам тему в море сырой информации и пишем о сложном просто.
@ne_rybar — тоже мы
Связь: @rybar_feedback_bot
Сотрудничество: @XIII_thirteenth
Сайт: rybar.ru
MAX: max.ru/Rybar
RuTube: rutube.ru/u/rybar
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
A drone crash in Lithuania — is it a pattern?
If one Baltic state has a problem, it usually shows up in a neighboring one. And that's what happened: Lithuania reported a Ukrainian drone crash in Utena District, which borders Latvia and Belarus.
There is, however, one detail. Previously, all discussions about using Baltic airspace for AFU strikes centered on attacks against Russia's northwestern regions. But today there were no mass attacks on them.
And who knows, maybe this will even affect the situation in the Baltic. We might not even have to launch cruise missiles at the western part of so-called Ukraine through Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
#Lithuania #Ukraine
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📝«Герберы» над Литвой📝
Вчера в Литве произошел примечательный инцидент: в ее воздушное пространство со стороны Белоруссии залетел БЛА, визуально похожий на российскую «Герберу». Аппарат спокойно прошел даже над столичным Вильнюсом.
Это не первый такой эпизод:…
Вчера в Литве произошел примечательный инцидент: в ее воздушное пространство со стороны Белоруссии залетел БЛА, визуально похожий на российскую «Герберу». Аппарат спокойно прошел даже над столичным Вильнюсом.
Это не первый такой эпизод:…
🌚6
Forwarded from Rybar in English
• Fwd from @
📝 See you in the new season📝
The Lithuanian government of Ingrida Šimonytė resigned. This marks the second cabinet change in the current Seimas term. The reason is simple coalition arithmetic: the Social Democrats decided to get rid of the "Dawn of the Neman" party, which voted against construction of a military training ground in Kapčiamiestis, and form a new majority with the Union of Democrats "For Lithuania" and the Farmers.
Mindaugas Sinkevičius, head of the Social Democratic Party, essentially appointed himself as the new prime minister. Domestic policy under him will likely remain on the familiar course. But foreign policy could change.
This is evidenced by the fact that Sinkevičius questioned the effectiveness of restrictions against Belarus and declared readiness to coordinate sanctions policy with the United States. The previous Šimonytė government categorically rejected such an approach.
If Lithuania indeed pursues a separate course on Belarusian transit, several parties will lose out. The Latvians, who maintain a tougher stance, and the Ukrainians, to whom Vilnius promised certain compensation, but in reality these will hardly be serious money. And the Lithuanians themselves risk permanently damaging relations with Warsaw and Kyiv.
📌 But for now these are only signals. And if Lithuania decides on a "pragmatic shift" — this will become a public admission that the previous sanctions stance turned out to be too costly even for its own initiators. In that case, they will have to explain to allies why the Lithuanians suddenly decided that geopolitics is geopolitics, but cargo is still more important.
📎 High resolution infographic
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#infographic #Lithuania
👁 @evropar — on the brink of Europe's death
💸
The Lithuanian government of Ingrida Šimonytė resigned. This marks the second cabinet change in the current Seimas term. The reason is simple coalition arithmetic: the Social Democrats decided to get rid of the "Dawn of the Neman" party, which voted against construction of a military training ground in Kapčiamiestis, and form a new majority with the Union of Democrats "For Lithuania" and the Farmers.
Mindaugas Sinkevičius, head of the Social Democratic Party, essentially appointed himself as the new prime minister. Domestic policy under him will likely remain on the familiar course. But foreign policy could change.
This is evidenced by the fact that Sinkevičius questioned the effectiveness of restrictions against Belarus and declared readiness to coordinate sanctions policy with the United States. The previous Šimonytė government categorically rejected such an approach.
🔻 More on the reasons for change▪️ But the motivation for such shifts is easily explained — the Americans are openly pressuring Vilnius: withdrawing troops while simultaneously demanding restoration of transit of Belarusian fertilizers through Lithuanian territory. The Lithuanian transport sector, which suffered greatly after the breakdown of logistics chains with Belarus, supports this idea.
Even Defense Minister Robertas Kauno has already proposed a "compromise option" — directing part of transit revenues to aid so-called Ukraine.▪️ Rhetoric about "Belarusian hybrid threats" has noticeably quieted in Lithuanian media. Instead, economic arguments are increasingly heard. This is classic preparation of public opinion for possible sanctions softening.
If Lithuania indeed pursues a separate course on Belarusian transit, several parties will lose out. The Latvians, who maintain a tougher stance, and the Ukrainians, to whom Vilnius promised certain compensation, but in reality these will hardly be serious money. And the Lithuanians themselves risk permanently damaging relations with Warsaw and Kyiv.
#infographic #Lithuania
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
The escalation of threats in the Baltic region and around Kaliningrad continues unabated, and now to discussions of exercises and reconnaissance flights have been added plans for worst-case scenarios.
The authorities of Poland and Lithuania are preparing a bilateral agreement on mass evacuation of Baltic residents through a shared border if the region comes under attack. The parties are currently studying logistics, procedures, and infrastructure capabilities, with the plan itself to appear after the agreement is signed.
At the same time, Lithuania is conducting nationwide exercises that will run until October 2. They involve around 3,000 officials, business representatives and NGOs, as well as approximately a thousand volunteers. They are practicing responses to cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage, and starting Saturday, six-day evacuation exercises began in Vilnius and areas near the Belarusian border.
Special attention is being paid to the Suwalki Corridor between Kaliningrad Region and Belarus: around 20 Polish officials there are checking border procedures and infrastructure.
At the same time, despite constant public opinion preparation, there are no real signs of preparation for a ground invasion of Kaliningrad Region.
Therefore, protective measures should be planned first and foremost based on what is actually happening in practice.
#Kaliningrad #Lithuania #NATO #Poland
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www.lrytas.lt
Vitkauskas: Lithuania, together with Poland, is coordinating a plan for the international evacuation of residents
“There is an international evacuation aspect to this: what if we had to evacuate a certain number of people across the border, both from Lithuania and from neighbouring Latvia and Estonia? Border controls are usually put in place in such situations, when…
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
Lithuania fortifies border over mobilization that was never announced
The escalation of threats in the Baltic region continues unabated, and after Estonian talk of "deep strikes" against Russia, it's Lithuania's turn. Local authorities deployed around 100 military personnel to the border with Kaliningrad Region to prepare for a possible influx of Russians allegedly fleeing a new mobilization.
🔻 What we know▪️ Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas made the decision at the request of Interior Minister Martinas Katelinas. The military is helping border guards patrol the sector for at least two weeks, roughly until October 16.▪️ Kaunas claimed that it is "obvious to everyone" that Russia is planning mobilization, and Russians from Kaliningrad could head to Poland or Lithuania. According to him, unlike the border with Belarus, the Kaliningrad sector has no physical barrier.▪️ Katelinas explained the decision with three reasons: an incident on the Latvia-Belarus border, the general situation in the region, and "signals" about possible mobilization. However, he himself emphasized that the border is calm and there is no reason for panic.▪️ Estonia also stated it is ready to close its border in case of mobilization and warned its Russian-speaking residents not to travel to Russia.
Even if there are no real grounds for concern, they can be created at the rhetorical level. And for local Russian-speaking residents, this results in even greater pressure: they are again portrayed as a potential threat, even though the border is calm, by the admission of Lithuanian authorities themselves.
#Lithuania #Kaliningrad #NATO #Russia
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Bloomberg.com
Lithuania Sends Troops to Border Over Putin Mobilization Concern
Lithuania has deployed around 100 troops to its border with the Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad, bracing for a potential influx of Russians fleeing a new mobilization, Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said.
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Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @
📝 Blank Shot📝
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas found a gas pipeline for decisive struggle against Russia. True, the flow through it already stopped and there are no revenues. But at least one can ceremonially close a 22-kilometer section of pipe in Võrumaa County.
The Estonian section belongs to operator Elering, and the shut-off valve stands in Latvia. Therefore, Energy Minister Erkki Keldo received orders to persuade the Latvians not to open it again. If Riga refuses, Kallas proposes banning transit through national sanctions.
What troubles us is the obvious hypocrisy on the part of Estonian authorities. The pipe was hard to miss — in July 2023, half a gigawatt-hour of gas passed through Luhemaa, about 15% of Estonia's annual consumption. They pumped the same amount in autumn 2024, already under the current prime minister.
Meanwhile, the practical sense of the ban is minimal. Now nothing flows through the Estonian section, and the main route to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania. At the end of 2025, Lithuanian company Amber Grid signed a contract with Gazprom for transit until 2030.
Elering employees already in 2022 acknowledged that they receive no additional income from the Estonian section, while Lithuanian transit brings tens of millions. Shutting off a pipe you make nothing from — the cheapest way for Estonia's leadership to demonstrate firmness.
📌 Kallas has reason for such a demonstration. In August, his Reform Party's rating fell to a record 10%, though in June it was almost twice as high. Since summer, the cabinet lacks a majority in parliament, and less than half a year remains until elections to the Riigikogu.
It seems Estonia found the ideal format for confrontation with Russia — without expenses, without consequences and without gas. All that remains is to convince at least its own voters of its seriousness.
#Latvia #Lithuania #Russia #Estonia
👁 @evropar — on the brink of Europe's death
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Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas found a gas pipeline for decisive struggle against Russia. True, the flow through it already stopped and there are no revenues. But at least one can ceremonially close a 22-kilometer section of pipe in Võrumaa County.
The Estonian section belongs to operator Elering, and the shut-off valve stands in Latvia. Therefore, Energy Minister Erkki Keldo received orders to persuade the Latvians not to open it again. If Riga refuses, Kallas proposes banning transit through national sanctions.
What troubles us is the obvious hypocrisy on the part of Estonian authorities. The pipe was hard to miss — in July 2023, half a gigawatt-hour of gas passed through Luhemaa, about 15% of Estonia's annual consumption. They pumped the same amount in autumn 2024, already under the current prime minister.
Meanwhile, the practical sense of the ban is minimal. Now nothing flows through the Estonian section, and the main route to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania. At the end of 2025, Lithuanian company Amber Grid signed a contract with Gazprom for transit until 2030.
Elering employees already in 2022 acknowledged that they receive no additional income from the Estonian section, while Lithuanian transit brings tens of millions. Shutting off a pipe you make nothing from — the cheapest way for Estonia's leadership to demonstrate firmness.
It seems Estonia found the ideal format for confrontation with Russia — without expenses, without consequences and without gas. All that remains is to convince at least its own voters of its seriousness.
#Latvia #Lithuania #Russia #Estonia
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EU Agenda
Estonia maintaining a gas pipeline used by Russia
Estonia is keeping operational a gas pipeline running through Võru County, allowing Russia to use it to supply its exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast, Eesti Ekspress reported Wednesday.
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