🖥 Microsoft Beats Q1 Estimates

Microsoft's Q1 results beat estimates across revenue, EPS, Azure revenue, and operating income. The main misses were commercial RPO and CapEx.

🖱️ Revenue: $92.2B vs $90.7B estimate.

🖱️ EPS: $4.89 vs $4.72 estimate.

🖱️ Azure revenue: $33.2B vs $32.3B estimate.

🖱️ Operating income: $45.9B vs $43.9B estimate.

🖱️ Commercial RPO: $677B vs $706B estimate.

🖱️ CapEx: $39.4B vs $45.9B estimate.

✔️ @venture

🪙 $6.3 Billion Drained From Binance

Binance's preliminary estimate is $6.3 billion, about 4 times the previous record set by Bybit. More than 18,000 BTC and about $3.8 billion in Ethereum moved across 10 blockchains, mostly within 20 minutes.

The attack began with a compromised DevOps laptop. Initial findings point to access to a service container and the hot-wallet transaction signing infrastructure, enabling unauthorized withdrawals. Binance found no leaked private keys.

Stablecoin issuers froze about $3 billion. Around $2.4 billion in BTC and ETH remains out of reach. Binance halted withdrawals and says SAFU, which holds about $1 billion, plus its own funds will cover the losses.

✔️ @venture

🥇 Gold Loses Its Safe-Haven Bid

Spot gold fell about 3% to roughly $3,910 an ounce, its lowest since October 2025. Futures are down about 26% from January's record close of $5,318.

The selloff came as the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 2% and $INTC had its worst day since 1974. Traders are pricing in more Fed hikes after a hot 0.5% September PCE print.

When even $GLD is sold during a tech rout, investors are raising cash wherever they can. Rates are the market's main fear.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Reddit’s Biggest Drawdown

$RDDT is in its biggest drawdown ever as Google AI Mode eats into Reddit’s search traffic.

CEO Steve Huffman says, “Google is crawling us as hard as ever.” Google still gets Reddit’s content, while Reddit receives fewer clicks in return.

✔️ @venture

👤 Black October’s cyber toll

October 2026 brought more than 100 million exposed records, hospital and government outages, critical software flaws, and major crypto thefts. Researchers called it “Black October”.

Most attacks used trusted access, including vendor accounts, cloud logins, certificates, and legacy systems. Breaches hit SourceNext, Burger King Japan, and Capcom.

An IDCF Cloud ransomware attack disrupted services for 495 companies and local governments. PHP flaws affected software used on about 70% of web servers, while LiteLLM exposed passwords and cloud keys.

AI agents used real logins, prompting JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Charles Schwab to block outside agents. Crypto losses included $93 million from CryptoBilis, nearly $16 million from CoinDCX, and $6.3 billion from Binance.

✔️ @venture

📉 Five Days of Market Risk

U.S. midterms, jobs data, central-bank decisions and major AI earnings land within 5 days, as tech stocks are already falling.

🖱️ Mon, Nov 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Apple and Palantir.

🖱️ Tue, Nov 3: elections, Australia’s rate decision, JOLTS, AMD and Shopify.

🖱️ Wed, Nov 4: ADP, ISM Services, eurozone inflation, Qualcomm and Arm.

🖱️ Thu, Nov 5: Bank of England decision, U.S. claims, Cloudflare and Airbnb.

🖱️ Fri, Nov 6: U.S. jobs report, with 60K expected after 29K in September and unemployment at 4.2%.

Markets price an 80% chance of another Fed rate hike in December.

✔️ @venture

🏘 Housing Market Turns Spookier

America has more home sellers than buyers, the biggest gap in over 10 years.

🖱️ Prices fell for the first time in 3 years.

🖱️ Only 276,000 home deals are in progress, a record low.

🖱️ Every major city has seen fewer sales for 3 straight weeks.

🖱️ The average house payment reached the second-highest level ever.

Michael Burry's advice: "Buy half the house you can afford"

✔️ @venture

💰 Ueno Bank Faces Emergency Control

Ueno Bank, a major Paraguayan bank, has failed, leaving nearly 60% of adults unable to access their accounts.

The bank has around 3 million customers and $2.8 billion in deposits, including hundreds of millions in public funds.

The central bank has taken emergency control, freezing withdrawals, transfers, and card payments.

✔️ @venture

📈 Midterms Meet a Costly Market

The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%.

JPMorgan’s election map:

🖱️ Democratic sweep, 66% odds, -0.25% to +0.5%.

🖱️ Democratic House, GOP Senate, 26% odds, +0.5% to +1%.

🖱️ Republican sweep, 7% odds, +1% to +1.25%.

A blue wave could pressure AI stocks through data center regulation fears. A red wave could extend the Iran campaign and deficit spending.

The catch is valuation. The Shiller CAPE is 40.7, above the old record of 33.8. History favors bulls, but no streak began from a market this expensive. AI earnings may matter more than tonight’s result.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ 5% 10-Year Rate Warning

“Once the 10-year nominal rates approach 5%, there's a very clear negative correlation between equities and the treasury yields”

Venu Krishna, Barclays.

“In fact, when we approached 4.5% on the 10, we had highlighted a red flag.” With rates stuck in this range, multiples stop helping and earnings must do the heavy lifting for SPY, QQQ, and the AI complex. The rally still has a rates ceiling.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Trump on Iran War Costs

“I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term. I thought the oil would go up a lot more, and I did it on that basis. If I were on the ballot, we would have won.”

Donald Trump

He said Vance was largely right that the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms, but he would do it again. He spoke at the White House the day after Democrats flipped the House and Senate, with US crude back below $90 for the first time since early October.

✔️ @venture