September made no sense.

Stocks barely moved, bonds had their worst month in years, and crypto had its best month in 8 months.

Here's how everything played out:

🖱 S&P 500 fell -0.59% but overall 78% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September.

🖱 Fed hiked rates by 25 bps, yet Nasdaq gained +3.9% during the month, and hit a new ALL TIME HIGH.

🖱 AI was holding the U.S. markets up, adding $1.7 TRILLION in market value since August end.

🖱 Bonds were where the real September crash happened.

🖱 US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002, up 54 basis points alone this month.

🖱 US30Y hit a new 22-year high at 5.612%.

🖱 The US Treasury spent $5.1 billion in long term bond buybacks.

🖱 Volatility in bond markets spiked, MOVE Index, the VIX for Treasury bonds jumped nearly 30% this month.

🖱 WTI crude crossed $106, its highest in 4 months.

🖱 Crypto has outperformed all the global stock markets, up 12.55% despite the CLARITY Act failing. Total Crypto market cap reclaimed $3T for the first time in 8 months.

🖱 BTC reached $87000, and ETH crossed $2,800 giving their highest monthly close in 9 months.

✔️ @venture

📊 US Bond Yields Reverse Jobs-Data Move

US bond yields have reversed the entire move caused by weaker-than-expected jobs data and are back near multi-decade highs.

A move this sharp leaves the market's main driver unclear.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX Revenue Mix Shifts

Elon Musk says ~90% of $SPCX revenue this year will be commercial, with government revenue below 5% in Q4.

Starlink has shifted SpaceX toward a connectivity platform, not mainly a government launch business.

✔️ @venture

Gold does best when real rates fall and trust in the Fed’s independence weakens.

Rates held below inflation would be a textbook setup for gold.

✔️ @venture

True wealth means time with loved ones.

✔️ @venture

❕ Long-Term Unemployment Is Rising

Nearly 2 million Americans have been out of work for over 6 months, the 3rd-worst stretch since the Great Recession. Long-term unemployment now represents 27% of all jobless Americans, up from 17.8% in February 2023.

The 4.2% unemployment rate looks manageable, but people who lose their jobs are taking much longer to find new ones. Only the Great Recession and the COVID shutdown were worse, despite there being no recession or shutdown now.

✔️ @venture

Buy stocks when consumer confidence is low.

✔️ @venture

✊ Trump Forms Super Intelligence Force

Trump announced a Super Intelligence Force on Sunday, led by intelligence chief Jay Clayton. It includes the FTC chair, the Pentagon research under secretary, and the personnel director.

The group will coordinate federal engagement with companies and outside groups, reporting to Trump and Susie Wiles. Clayton said it has 120 days to recommend oversight under existing authorities. It does not create a new law.

✔️ @venture

Leopold Aschenbrenner opened 4 option positions two weeks ago. He paid $96M, and all 4 expired in the money.

🖱️ Micron (MU), strike $1,000.

🖱️ SanDisk (SNDK), strike $1,600.

🖱️ Intel (INTC), strike $115.

🖱️ Marvell (MRVL), strike $250.

The positions returned 47%, generating about $45.6M in 2 weeks.

✔️ @venture

The S&P 500 just hit its 28th record high of 2026, crossing $71 trillion in market cap for the first time.

🖱️ 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs.

🖱️ Inflation is 3.4%, above expectations, while mortgage rates are 7.28%, the highest since 2023.

🖱️ The Fed is hiking rates for the first time since 2023. Unemployment has risen to 4.2%, a 3-month high.

🖱️ Gasoline is $4.36 a gallon, up 39% in a year. Diesel is above $6.3.

🖱️ Crude is near $88-$95 a barrel. Consumer sentiment is 48.1, the second-lowest in 74 years.

✔️ @venture

Diversification is dying.

For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, its 10 largest stocks get about 41 cents: Nvidia ($NVDA) 8 cents, Apple ($AAPL) 7 cents, Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) 6 cents each, and Amazon ($AMZN) 4 cents.

Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron and AMD add 10 cents. The top 10 stocks represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies, which account for 23 cents. Big Tech effectively is the market

✔️ @venture

US high-yield credit market stress is rising sharply, with spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds up to 12.0%, their widest level since November 2022.

Over the last 5 months, spreads surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%.

The increase is comparable to moves during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 correction. If this pace continues, spreads will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% this month.

The 2020 pandemic high was 19.6%. Credit stress is rising beneath the surface.

✔️ @venture

Nike shares are down over 80% from their peak.

If they reclaim that high, investors buying here would make over 5x their money.

The latest quarter shows whether a turnaround is in sight.

✔️ @venture

The White House and the Fed are taking opposite positions on interest rates.

The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, with every voting member backing the move.

🖱️ Fed: Most officials expect another hike by year-end. PCE inflation was 3.8% in August.

🖱️ Trump: “We should have the lowest interest rate in the world.”

🖱️ Trump: “You have a board that would like to see the country do badly.”

✔️ @venture

US banks seized 42% more homes in August than last year as more borrowers failed to repay loans.

30-year mortgage rates reached 7.60%, the highest since Nov 2023.

Home ownership is no longer affordable for the average US citizen.

✔️ @venture