Top investing books.

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What “Smart Money” bought last quarter.

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📊 Risk Types

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A $10,000 investment a decade ago produced:

🖱️ Nvidia, $1,355,800.

🖱️ AMD, $964,300.

🖱️ Sterling, $684,000.

🖱️ Micron, $601,300.

🖱️ Comfort Systems, $570,300.

🖱️ Arista, $383,200.

🖱️ Celestica, $350,400.

Nvidia was the clear leader.

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Nano Banc became the 6th US bank to fail in 2026.

Over 25% of its loans went bad, mostly tied to commercial real estate.

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Fair Isaac is down 64% from its highs. This is the backside of concentration. $FICO

When a fund's largest holding moves against it, investors will surely leave. Fund management is tough.

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AI token pricing is collapsing, while usage is exploding as reasoning models and agents consume far more tokens per task.

That should drive more AI usage across $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and $AMZN. $NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO power the compute stack, while $MU and $SKHY supply memory.

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💻️ Nvidia’s Buyback Meets Cash Flow

The board raised Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion on 28 September, with use expected by January 2028. That implies about $15 billion a month, versus average free cash flow of $11.6 billion a month in the six months to July.

The authorization is permission, not spending, and can be suspended. Nvidia bought $19.7 billion of stock last quarter, or about $6.6 billion a month. Cash flow fell from $48.6 billion in the first quarter to $21.3 billion in the second.

The CFO said Nvidia plans to return 50% or more of free cash flow, versus 60% so far this year. In July, it held $56.6 billion in cash and debt securities, plus $42.8 billion in listed stock stakes, and sold $25 billion of bonds in June.

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🇺🇸Tariff Relief Excludes Soybeans

The US and China published tariff cut lists covering $60 billion in trade under a new "30-for-30" deal. China’s 1,600+ item list excludes soybeans, the product the US wanted most.

US soybean exports to China were worth $12.8 billion in 2024. That equals 43% of the $30 billion tariff relief package.

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“The most important thing in investments is not having a high IQ…The most important thing is realism and discipline.”

“You don’t need to be extraordinarily bright to do well in investments if you are realistic and disciplined.”

Warren Buffett

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"If you want to be successful in business and in life, you have to create more than you consume."

Jeff Bezos

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🛢 Brent Curve and EIA Outlook

November Brent expires Today. On 29 September at 12:30 UTC, November traded at $103.91 and December at $96.41. A contract-switching service can therefore show a $7.50 lower price without the underlying becoming cheaper.

The EIA's 2027 outlook puts Brent at an average of $73.74, assuming most Gulf production and trade return to pre-conflict averages by the second quarter. Futures sit $9.67 to $11.84 higher in the cited calendar comparisons, with the gap widening to about $16 to $17 by the fourth quarter. Risk compensation means this gap alone does not show that futures traders expect the EIA to be wrong.

The view here is that Brent will stay above the EIA's 2027 path. The cited calls include a 70% chance that the EIA raises its 2027 average, a 95% chance that it cuts its end-October US gas storage forecast below 3,969 billion cubic feet, and an 18% chance of official confirmation of a US-Iran arrangement that reopens Hormuz before 3 November. The probabilities are judgments, not calibrated model results.

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The Iranian rial hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar.

In Iran, $400 makes you a billionaire.

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🤖 Anthropic IPO Filing

Anthropic filed an S-1 for an IPO after the congressional elections. Reuters highlighted key figures.

Revenue rose 12-fold in 2025. The two largest clients each account for 12% of revenue.

GAAP net loss in FY25 was $42 billion, while actual cash operating losses were about $8 billion. The rest reflects accounting for instruments convertible into Anthropic shares. Valuation could exceed $2 trillion.

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🤖 OpenAI Moves Into Chip Design

Synopsys and OpenAI are building GPT Synopsys, a specialized AI model that can directly use EDA tools to design and optimize chips.

AI is moving from assisting engineers to running chip design workflows. Synopsys gets paid as usage scales.

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💰 ADAPT Act Targets Crypto Taxes

Senate Republicans introduced the ADAPT Act, which would take effect in 2027. Stablecoin payments would be tax-free when the coin stays within 3% of $1, and network fees under $10 per transaction would not be taxed.

Wash sale rules would apply to crypto, closing a tax-loss loophole. Mining and staking rewards would get clearer sourcing rules.

Foreign investors using a US broker would not be treated as doing business in the US. Crypto donations would no longer require a formal appraisal, matching stock donations.

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Fed rate hike odds fell from 70% to 23% in 4 days as officials hinted at a pause.

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😺 OpenAI Targets Another Raise

NVDA completed its final $10B installment of the $30B commitment as the round closed at an $852B valuation.

OpenAI targets another ~$30B raise at about $1.4T, driven by compute buildout.

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