🤖 OpenAI Moves Into Chip Design

Synopsys and OpenAI are building GPT Synopsys, a specialized AI model that can directly use EDA tools to design and optimize chips.

AI is moving from assisting engineers to running chip design workflows. Synopsys gets paid as usage scales.

✔️ @venture

💰 ADAPT Act Targets Crypto Taxes

Senate Republicans introduced the ADAPT Act, which would take effect in 2027. Stablecoin payments would be tax-free when the coin stays within 3% of $1, and network fees under $10 per transaction would not be taxed.

Wash sale rules would apply to crypto, closing a tax-loss loophole. Mining and staking rewards would get clearer sourcing rules.

Foreign investors using a US broker would not be treated as doing business in the US. Crypto donations would no longer require a formal appraisal, matching stock donations.

✔️ @venture

Fed rate hike odds fell from 70% to 23% in 4 days as officials hinted at a pause.

✔️ @venture

😺 OpenAI Targets Another Raise

NVDA completed its final $10B installment of the $30B commitment as the round closed at an $852B valuation.

OpenAI targets another ~$30B raise at about $1.4T, driven by compute buildout.

✔️ @venture

September made no sense.

Stocks barely moved, bonds had their worst month in years, and crypto had its best month in 8 months.

Here's how everything played out:

🖱 S&P 500 fell -0.59% but overall 78% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September.

🖱 Fed hiked rates by 25 bps, yet Nasdaq gained +3.9% during the month, and hit a new ALL TIME HIGH.

🖱 AI was holding the U.S. markets up, adding $1.7 TRILLION in market value since August end.

🖱 Bonds were where the real September crash happened.

🖱 US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002, up 54 basis points alone this month.

🖱 US30Y hit a new 22-year high at 5.612%.

🖱 The US Treasury spent $5.1 billion in long term bond buybacks.

🖱 Volatility in bond markets spiked, MOVE Index, the VIX for Treasury bonds jumped nearly 30% this month.

🖱 WTI crude crossed $106, its highest in 4 months.

🖱 Crypto has outperformed all the global stock markets, up 12.55% despite the CLARITY Act failing. Total Crypto market cap reclaimed $3T for the first time in 8 months.

🖱 BTC reached $87000, and ETH crossed $2,800 giving their highest monthly close in 9 months.

✔️ @venture

📊 US Bond Yields Reverse Jobs-Data Move

US bond yields have reversed the entire move caused by weaker-than-expected jobs data and are back near multi-decade highs.

A move this sharp leaves the market's main driver unclear.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX Revenue Mix Shifts

Elon Musk says ~90% of $SPCX revenue this year will be commercial, with government revenue below 5% in Q4.

Starlink has shifted SpaceX toward a connectivity platform, not mainly a government launch business.

✔️ @venture

Gold does best when real rates fall and trust in the Fed’s independence weakens.

Rates held below inflation would be a textbook setup for gold.

✔️ @venture

True wealth means time with loved ones.

✔️ @venture

❕ Long-Term Unemployment Is Rising

Nearly 2 million Americans have been out of work for over 6 months, the 3rd-worst stretch since the Great Recession. Long-term unemployment now represents 27% of all jobless Americans, up from 17.8% in February 2023.

The 4.2% unemployment rate looks manageable, but people who lose their jobs are taking much longer to find new ones. Only the Great Recession and the COVID shutdown were worse, despite there being no recession or shutdown now.

✔️ @venture

Buy stocks when consumer confidence is low.

✔️ @venture

✊ Trump Forms Super Intelligence Force

Trump announced a Super Intelligence Force on Sunday, led by intelligence chief Jay Clayton. It includes the FTC chair, the Pentagon research under secretary, and the personnel director.

The group will coordinate federal engagement with companies and outside groups, reporting to Trump and Susie Wiles. Clayton said it has 120 days to recommend oversight under existing authorities. It does not create a new law.

✔️ @venture

Leopold Aschenbrenner opened 4 option positions two weeks ago. He paid $96M, and all 4 expired in the money.

🖱️ Micron (MU), strike $1,000.

🖱️ SanDisk (SNDK), strike $1,600.

🖱️ Intel (INTC), strike $115.

🖱️ Marvell (MRVL), strike $250.

The positions returned 47%, generating about $45.6M in 2 weeks.

✔️ @venture

The S&P 500 just hit its 28th record high of 2026, crossing $71 trillion in market cap for the first time.

🖱️ 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs.

🖱️ Inflation is 3.4%, above expectations, while mortgage rates are 7.28%, the highest since 2023.

🖱️ The Fed is hiking rates for the first time since 2023. Unemployment has risen to 4.2%, a 3-month high.

🖱️ Gasoline is $4.36 a gallon, up 39% in a year. Diesel is above $6.3.

🖱️ Crude is near $88-$95 a barrel. Consumer sentiment is 48.1, the second-lowest in 74 years.

✔️ @venture