💰 AI Infrastructure Debt Is Getting Tighter

JPMorgan expects $5.5T of AI spending through 2030, including $4.1T funded with debt. Morgan Stanley estimates private credit will fund over half of the $1.5T needed for data centers through 2028.

Private credit investors can usually withdraw only 5% of their shares per quarter. In early 2026, Blue Owl, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, while the 30-year is near 5.5%.

AI revenue is still small relative to the buildout. Microsoft's AI revenue run rate is $37B and AWS's is $15B, versus about $650B of hyperscaler spending in 2026. The money is not gone, but cheap debt is. If AI revenue does not cover higher interest costs, lenders will fund fewer projects.

✔️ @venture

🚀 The Full Space Value Chain

Heading into 2028, space spans launch, manufacturing, spectrum and services.

🖱️ $RKLB: rockets, satellite manufacturing, defense, Iridium global spectrum, 2.55M+ existing subs.

🖱️ $SPCX: launch, satellite manufacturing, Starlink, vertically integrated network.

🖱️ $ASTS: direct-to-smartphone satellite links via large arrays and carrier spectrum.

🖱️ $PL: Earth observation satellites, imagery, data and analytics.

🖱️ $FLY: launch vehicles, lunar landers and defense systems.

🖱️ $YORK: satellites for Pentagon constellations and defense programs.

🖱️ $RDW: spacecraft components, sensors and mission hardware.

🖱️ $BKSY: imaging satellites, real-time geospatial intelligence.

✔️ @venture

🏦 Treasury’s Debt Gamble Moves Short

10-year Treasury yields have reached 5.23%, while 30-year yields moved above 5.6%, levels not seen in more than two decades. That comes despite Scott Bessent increasing long-term bond buybacks to as much as $6 billion.

Citi expects the Treasury to announce $3 billion cuts to both 20-year and 30-year bond auctions on November 4, with the 20-year bond potentially canceled. The government would borrow more through short-term Treasury bills to reduce long-term bond supply and ease yields.

The trade-off is faster refinancing. If rates remain elevated, interest costs could rise further as US national debt approaches $40 trillion. The Treasury may reduce pressure on long-term yields, but it cannot remove the debt problem.

✔️ @venture

🔐 Ledger Implant Case Remains Unresolved

By 11 October, Bitquery estimated $93.2M stolen from 315 wallets linked to Ledger buyers and authorised reseller CryptoBilis in Southeast Asia. Ledger confirmed an unauthorised hardware implant in one affected device.

The implant was a microscopic cellular transmitter added around the screen padding. Research on separate Ledger Nano X specimens describes implants copying recovery words and sending them over cellular. Those devices were not bought from CryptoBilis.

Tether froze $10M in USDT, blocking further transfers but not refunding victims. Ledger says its systems were not compromised, cannot reverse Bitcoin transactions, and has not confirmed the total or announced compensation.

Ledger advises CryptoBilis buyers not to set up unused devices and to move funds to new hardware with a fresh recovery phrase. Replacing a device does not invalidate stolen keys or restore funds already taken.

✔️ @venture

📈 AI Stocks Drive Market

Since the start of 2024, 42 AI stocks have generated 67% of the S&P 500’s price return, contributing 22 percentage points of its 33% gain. The other 458 stocks added 11 percentage points.

The AI basket also accounted for 58% of earnings growth and 81% of CapEx and R&D growth. The rest of the index contributed just 20% of CapEx and R&D growth.

Only 29% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 3 years, near the ~25% low during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. AI is all that matters.

✔️ @venture

Ⓜ️ Agent Commerce Could Lift Shopping Frequency

Mark Zuckerberg says his AI agent increased his Instacart orders from “twice a year” to “twice a week”, about 50x more often, by making shopping easier.

That points to the larger? opportunity: reducing buying friction could increase shopping frequency, not just move existing purchases online.

As personal agents communicate with business agents, $META could sit on both sides. $AMZN and $MELI could benefit from more transactions through their platforms.

✔️ @venture

US private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software reached a record 5.05% of US GDP, up 1.08 percentage points since Q3 2023.

Investment rose $531 billion to a record annual rate of $1.65 trillion. It previously peaked at 4.46% in Q4 2000, before the 2001 recession.

The investment has more than doubled since Q1 2018, reflecting an unprecedented AI spending boom.

✔️ @venture

📈 The S&P 500 Enters Year Five

The S&P 500 has gained 118% since the bull market began in October 2022. That makes it the third-best start to a bull market at its fourth birthday, based on analysis from Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick. Only 2 of the 7 other bull markets reaching this point in the past 7 decades started with larger gains.

History offers a wider range. Bull markets since 1950 delivered an average full-cycle gain of 192%, including 582% from 1987 to 2000 and 401% from 2009 to 2020. Detrick says that over the past 50 years, every bull market that passed its third birthday reached at least its fifth, with an average ultimate length of 8 years.

The S&P 500 is within 1% of its 52-week high and has risen just over 17% since its third birthday. Investors remain cautious because the market is tech-heavy and narrowing, with geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices. But forward valuations have fallen, leaving many popular AI names cheaper than a year ago.

✔️ @venture

🏦 Private Businesses Are the Hidden Wealth Engine

Economists Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick estimate that roughly 3 million Americans hold more than $65 trillion in wealth as owners of privately held businesses. About 1.7 million have built fortunes of at least $10 million this way. For every public-company CEO, there are more than 1,000 private-business owners worth over $25 million.

The scale was hard to see because most private companies are pass-through businesses, including S corporations and partnerships. Their profits appear on owners’ individual tax returns, while the IRS historically kept personal and business data in separate silos.

The businesses behind these fortunes are often mundane rather than venture-backed. They include car dealers, HVAC contractors, dentists, restaurants, distributors, and construction companies. Zidar also points to owners of a toilet-paper distributor, a trash-bag maker that sold for $300 million, and a major vehicle-repossession company.

✔️ @venture

KOSPI fell 8%, triggering a circuit breaker. The Korean Exchange halted stock and program trading for 20 minutes.

The index is down 21% in 7 sessions, wiping out over ₩1,186 trillion ($880 billion).

✔️ @venture

🤖 AI Boom Starts Spreading Inflation

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says the AI boom is becoming an inflation problem. Price pressure is spreading beyond data center components and adjacent industries.

Illinois businesses report scarce electricians, higher construction costs, and year-long waits for electrical components as data centers compete for the same resources. Land, power, water, and infrastructure costs tied to AI campuses have also risen sharply.

Goolsbee is increasingly concerned this reflects overheating demand, not a temporary supply shock. If inflation stays persistent, another rate hike later this month remains possible, reinforcing the higher-for-longer pressure already weighing on banks and long-duration tech.

✔️ @venture

📈 ETF Growth Is Moving Into Leverage

Since the S&P 500’s October 2022 low, ETF assets have risen more than 250%. Assets in ETFs using derivatives are up more than 450%. Issuers launched 3,363 new ETFs, and more than 30% of this year’s launches use leverage, according to VettaFi.

The shift is also pulling money from traditional vehicles. Equity ETFs attracted $3.2 trillion, while equity mutual funds lost $3.3 trillion. Money market fund assets rose 74%, or $3.4 trillion.

The product expansion now reaches private companies. 21shares listed CLAU in Vienna, billed as Europe’s first ETP offering exposure to Anthropic’s implied pre-IPO valuation.

✔️ @venture

🚀 AI Servers for Space

Jensen Huang says Nvidia and SpaceX engineers are working on a new type of server for AI data centers in space that could also work on Earth.

He compared Elon to Google because he trains AI models, runs Grok, and rents out compute. Nvidia is helping design infrastructure that SpaceX could eventually take into orbit using reusable rockets.

✔️ @venture

🚘 Volvo Extends Nvidia Self-Driving Partnership

Volvo Cars expanded its nearly decade-long partnership with Nvidia. Future models will use Nvidia Hyperion sensors and compute, the Alpamayo software stack, and the Halos safety layer for hands-free, door-to-door driving across highways, city streets, and parking areas.

The system is Level 2++ supervised autonomy, with drivers remaining responsible. It covers traffic lights, stop signs, and unprotected left turns. There will be no lidar at launch. The first vehicles are due before 2030, starting with a new model and expanding across Volvo’s lineup, excluding China.

All current Volvo battery EVs already use Nvidia Orin chips. The deal extends that stack to sensors and to EV, plug-in hybrid, and gas models. With Alpamayo downloaded by more than 650,000 developers, Nvidia’s auto business offers another demand path if supervised autonomy reaches mass-market fleets before robotaxis.

✔️ @venture

The US Treasury bought back $6 billion of its own debt to lower bond yields.

Total buybacks this month: $19.33 billion.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸 US Deficit Hits $1.992 Trillion

The US budget deficit reached $1.992 trillion in fiscal 2026, up 12% from $1.775 trillion in 2025. It was the 3rd largest in US history, at about 6.2% of GDP, and the 25th straight year in the red. The last surplus was in 2001.

Revenue and spending both hit records at $5.403 trillion and $7.396 trillion. Social Security cost nearly $1.7 trillion, Medicare almost $1.1 trillion, and net interest topped $1 trillion, up from $970 billion last year.

Tariffs did not close the gap. After the Supreme Court struck them down in February, $144.6 billion in refunds nearly halved $317.8 billion in gross customs receipts. Gross national debt is now above $40.3 trillion. A near $2 trillion deficit outside a recession keeps the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, while bond supply pressure also weighs on high-multiple AI names.

✔️ @venture

🇹🇼 Taiwan’s Stock Boom Tests Fund Managers

Taiwan’s stock market is up 62% this year, making it the best-performing major market. Nearly 10% of listed stocks have doubled in value.

Fund managers cannot buy individual stocks in personal accounts. Some are leaving traditional asset managers for private trading firms and hedge funds with fewer restrictions. One 30-year-old analyst reportedly left in March and grew his portfolio more than 10X.

More than half of Taiwan’s 20 largest equity funds changed managers in the past 3 years. Some private trading firms now trade over NT$10 billion per month, while managers who stay reportedly lock away their devices during trading hours.

Taiwan’s financial regulator is reviewing the restrictions as more professionals leave fund management to trade for themselves.

✔️ @venture

💻️ Nvidia's Valuation and Demand Shift

Nvidia is trading near its cheapest valuation in a decade, despite guiding to roughly 70% growth next year.

Vera Rubin is expected to be its fastest product ramp ever.

Growth is broadening beyond hyperscalers.

ACIE customers grew 25% sequentially, versus 13% for hyperscalers, giving Nvidia another major source of demand.

✔️ @venture