Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan Declared Victory 🇦🇲

Early results showed Pashinyan's ruling Civil Contract Party leading with 52.5%, with Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia alliance trailing behind at 23.2%, according to the Central Election Commission, citing 23.5% of electoral precincts reporting. 📊

Ex-President Robert Kocharyan's Armenia alliance was third with some 9%, followed by the Prosperous Armenia Party, which cleared the electoral threshold with 4.6%. The commission said turnout was 59%. 🗳

In a press conference in the early hours of Monday morning, Pashinyan said his Civil Contract party had prevailed, calling it a "historic victory" ✨.

The ruling Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Pashinyan had the pro-Russia Strong Armenia party as its closest rival in the election, which is also seen as a referendum on Pashinyan's peace efforts with Azerbaijan 🤝.

Polls showed Pashinyan and his party well in the lead with up to 32% support, compared with just 11% for Strong Armenia 📉.

This seems to indicate some endorsement of Pashinyan's efforts to move Armenia closer to the West since he came to power in 2018, although he will not be able to govern alone if the early results are confirmed 🏛.

In contrast, Strong Armenia, formed last year by Armenian billionaire Karapetyan, wants Armenia to remain close to Russia, a key trading partner and energy supplier 🇷🇺.

Police were reported by the media to have searched the offices of Strong Armenia in the city of Gyumri and made arrests 👮.

Last month, Putin made veiled threats about the negative economic impact of a move away from Moscow if Armenia continued on its course ⚠️.

In the weeks before the election, Russia has moved to make such theoretical economic threats more tangible by introducing new restrictions on Armenian produce including flowers and vegetables 🌸🥦.

Putin also suggested that Armenia could suffer a similar crisis as the one in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv's problems "began with efforts to move toward EU accession." 🇪🇺

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been embroiled in a long-running conflict since the 1980s, largely over Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway territory inhabited by ethnic Armenians that was retaken by Azerbaijan in a 2023 war ⚔️.

Critics say Pashinyan made too many concessions to Azerbaijan in a US-brokered agreement he signed last August 🇺🇸.

He has also been accused of authoritarianism, with many of his opponents landing behind bars in recent years 🚫.

The government has defended its actions, saying those imprisoned were trying to foment coups. 🛡

On Sunday, police said they had detained more than 10 people on suspicion of vote-buying, while three members of a local electoral commission were also taken into custody overnight 🔒.

#primer #minister #armenian #pashinyan #victory

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The IDF Has Launched Airstrikes on Iran


The Israeli military has launched airstrikes on Iran after the Iranians fired missiles at northern Israel in the first exchange of fire between the two countries since a ceasefire was reached on 8 April, raising fears of a return to a full-scale regional war in the Middle East.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels also fired at Israel and warned they would target Israeli-affiliated ships in the Red Sea, further escalating tension.

The Israeli strikes came in apparent defiance of Donald Trump, who told Netanyahu, that he did not think Israel needed to respond further. He added that Netanyahu did not “call the shots”.

Trump has leaned on Israel to stop its attacks in Lebanon to allow room for a deal to end the wider war with Iran, including an obscenities-filled rebuke of Netanyahu in a phone call to the Israel leader last week.

However, Israel launched strikes on the Beirut area early on Sunday, the first since the US announced a truce plan for Lebanon last week.

“No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States,”

Esmaeil Baqaei, a foreign ministry spokesperson, said.

“It is perfectly natural that the diplomatic process initiated to put an end to this imposed war would be affected.”

The White House did not respond to messages about the Israel strikes and whether they were done in coordination with the US.

Israel’s attacks included a strike on an Iranian petrochemical complex. The Israeli military said it had also struck and dismantled Iran’s defence systems deployed across several areas in the country.

Iranian state television reported the sound of explosions being heard in Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz and Tehran. Officials offered no details on what had been struck, nor any information about the damage.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said srael used air-launched ballistic missiles in its attack on Monday morning, without elaborating.

The IRGC said it had targeted two military bases in Israel, describing the attacks as being part of Operation Nasr, or “Victory”.

The Israeli army said it had worked to intercept a fresh wave of Iranian missiles. A series of explosions were heard in Jerusalem, where people took shelter. An Iranian missile fragment caused damage to several homes in a West Bank settlement, but no injuries were reported.

Speaking to the Financial Times before Israel hit Iran, Trump said he dictated terms to Netanyahu on how the war should be prosecuted.

“He won’t have any choice,”

Trump told the newspaper in a telephone interview, adding that he called “all the shots”, not Netanyahu.

Houthi rebels announced a missile attack on Israel on Monday, the first since early April, and declared a ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, raising the spectre of a return to significant disruption on the main trade route.

“We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea,”

said a statement from the Houthis’ armed forces.

Ehsan Movahedian, an international relations specialist at Tehran University, pointed to videos he claimed proved the US did not just approve but was involved in Israel’s attack on Iran.

‘Footage shows the launch of cruise missiles from the eastern Mediterranean toward Iran, meaning Trump has lied again,”

he wrote.

“American warships are deployed in the eastern Mediterranean (…) Israel lacks the capability to launch long-range ship-fired cruise missiles.”

#israeli #airstrikes #iran #mediterranean

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#trump #interview #kristen #welker

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#iran #launches #missles #israel

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Israel and Iran: the War Is Put On Hold

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Fears of a return to a full-scale regional war in the Middle East eased on Monday as Israel and Iran said they had halted attacks on each other after an appeal from Trump to “immediately stop shooting”.

Netanyahu acknowledged the halt in fighting with Iran in a televised speech, but vowed to respond “with force” to future attacks.

“At present, the fire on this front has been halted, because after the terrorist regime in Tehran was struck, it stopped attacking us,” Netanyahu said. “If that terrorist regime makes the mistake of attacking us again, we will respond with force.”

The recent wave of Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel and retaliatory strikes by Israeli warplanes on Iran marked the most direct confrontation since an April ceasefire.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels also fired at Israel and warned they would target Israeli-affiliated ships in the Red Sea, further escalating tension.

Any new “ceasefire within the ceasefire” is very fragile, analysts say, with multiple flashpoints that could lead to fresh exchanges of strikes and missile barrages at any moment.

Israeli officials have rejected repeated Iranian efforts to link any definitive ceasefire to Israel stopping its offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which has close ties with Tehran.

On Monday, Israel’s defence minister said Israel would continue to operate against Hezbollah in Lebanon and strike Beirut if the militant Islamist movement attacked Israel.

“Any Iranian attempt to link Lebanon and Iran and attack Israel will be met with great force, as happened yesterday,” Israel Katz said.

Iran also remained defiant. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and most senior negotiator, said on Monday that Tehran would not tolerate what it called “repeated violation”.

“So long as you lack a genuine willingness to build trust, Iran’s response will remain the same,” he posted on X.

Trump has leaned on Israel to stop its attacks in Lebanon to allow room for a deal to end the wider war with Iran, including an obscenity-filled rebuke of Netanyahu in a phone call last week.

The US website reported on Monday Trump’s claims that he had again scolded Netanyahu.

“I said: ‘Bibi, you better be careful, or you will be on your own very soon,’” he was quoted as saying.

However, the Israeli prime minister faces an election later this year and is under domestic pressure to continue efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to attack Israel.

#iran #war #tehran #houthis #trump

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Israel’s recent attacks on Iran included a strike on an Iranian petrochemical complex. The Israeli military said it had also struck and dismantled Iran’s defence systems deployed across several areas in the country. Iranian state television reported the sound of explosions in Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz and Tehran.

Iran’s military headquarters said it had “delivered a painful response” to Israel for its attacks on Lebanon, including Sunday’s strikes on the outskirts of Beirut.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted two military bases in Israel. An Iranian missile fragment caused damage to several homes in a West Bank settlement, but no injuries were reported.

The new violence has also complicated Trump’s push to end the war, launched by the US and Israel on 28 February with strikes that killed the then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A ceasefire announced two months ago paused all-out warfare though sporadic clashes in the Gulf have continued.

In one of a flurry of social media posts, Trump on Monday said Israel and Iran both wanted “an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.”

He added that a US blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a final deal was reached.

Iran also threatened to expand the conflict further, with potentially disastrous consequences for the world economy.

The Houthis, the Yemen-based militia movement with close ties to Tehran, pledged in a statement to stop Israel’s maritime navigation in the Red Sea, and said they had also fired missiles at Israel in recent days.

Israel invaded Lebanon in March after Hezbollah fired across the border in solidarity with Tehran at the beginning of the current war. More than 3,500 people have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while Hezbollah has killed at least 29 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and three Israeli civilians.

On Monday night, Lebanon’s health ministry said an Israeli strike on the southern city of Tyre had killed five people and injured eight, four of whom were Red Cross paramedics.

Tehran also wants to postpone any detailed discussions about how Iran might assure the US it is not seeking a nuclear weapon, such as by down-blending its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

Iranian negotiators have been under internal pressure from a small but vocal group of hardliners in the parliament to abandon the talks altogether.

#iran #war #tehran #houthis #trump

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Apache Down in Hormuz: “Little Excursion” Meets Reality

A U.S. Army AH‑64 Apache gunship just went down near the Strait of Hormuz, and this time it wasn’t a drone — it was two human beings pulled out of the water while the White House said nothing until reporters asked. The crew survived; that’s the good news.

The bad news is what it says about where this “not an endless war” really is. The Pentagon doesn’t yet know if it was Iranian fire, mechanical failure, or bad luck, but when you fly armed helicopters ever closer to Iranian islands under a de facto naval duel, “unclear” is doing a lot of work.

This is the first Apache lost in this conflict after roughly 30 Reaper drones and several U.S. jets have already gone down to Iranian missiles, guns and “friendly fire.”

The Apaches aren’t there for sightseeing: they patrol Hormuz to scare off small boats and shoot down drones while U.S. ships enforce a counter‑blockade, turning away more than a hundred vessels and even disabling ships that ignore orders.

Both sides have blockades, both sides have wreckage, and both claim they’re the ones keeping “freedom of navigation” alive.

Meanwhile, Trump still sells the war as a short “excursion” that’s almost over, even as U.S. pilots, sailors and now helicopter crews run daily live‑fire stress tests against Iran’s air defenses and swarm tactics.

Every “incident under investigation” is another reminder that great power games have real stakes for people in cockpits — and that once you normalize patrolling within striking distance of an enemy you’re supposedly “cease‑fired” with, losing expensive machines and nearly losing crews stops being a shock and becomes a line item.

The script won’t change: Washington will frame this as an unfortunate mishap in a necessary mission, Tehran will point to it as proof the U.S. is the aggressor in their backyard, and both will keep pushing the envelope over a shipping lane the global economy can’t afford to lose.

The war stays officially “limited,” the risks keep expanding, and the only thing that’s really clear is this: the more metal you put into that sky, the higher the odds that one day, “the crew was safely rescued” drops out of the sentence.

#USA #Iran #Hormuz #Trump #war #military #Apache #endlesswar

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Trump’s Iran War: Wants to Be the Boss, Stuck in a Box

Trump keeps saying he “calls all the shots” on Iran — but the war he launched with Israel is showing exactly how little he can actually control.

He’s trapped between three hard limits. Iran has partly shut the Strait of Hormuz and shrugged off a U.S. naval counter‑blockade, keeping oil prices high and U.S. leverage low.

Tehran is refusing his maximalist demands on its nuclear program, while hawks in Washington warn he’s drifting toward a “bad deal” that leaves Iran angry, still armed and with more sway over the strait than before.

And U.S. munitions stocks are being burned so fast that senior analysts say America’s posture in Europe and Asia is already weaker.

At home, the politics are ugly. Polls show broad disapproval of a war he sold as a “little excursion” that’s now in its fourth month, so he insists it’s not an “endless war” and tells critics to “sit back and relax” because it will all work out.

Abroad, he alternates between threatening to “blow the hell out of” Iran if there’s no deal soon and demanding Israel and Iran “immediately stop shooting” after each round of escalation.

His relationship with Netanyahu exposes the contradiction. Trump needs Bibi to dial down Lebanon strikes to keep Iran talks alive, and by all accounts has enough political leverage over him to do it — including a profanity‑laced call that briefly paused Israeli bombing of Beirut.

But Iran is not Israel: Tehran keeps trading blows, keeps the strait half‑closed, and so far has refused to bend to Trump’s “zero enrichment” and tougher‑than‑Obama narrative.

As one veteran U.S. negotiator put it, Trump has shown he can change Israel’s calculus; he has not shown he can change Iran’s. That is the real ceiling on his power.

#Trump #Iran #war #Netanyahu #Hormuz #USA #endlesswar

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Red Carpet for Kim: Xi’s Quiet Middle Finger to Washington

Xi flies into Pyongyang, gets cavalry, giant portraits and kids with bouquets — and uses it to send one message: China is back as North Korea’s main patron, and it’s not shy about it.

Beijing talks about “strategic coordination,” more trade, tech and infrastructure, and “jointly defending sovereignty,” which is polite code for “we’re building a bloc that can ignore Washington.”

For Kim, this is perfect leverage. He’s been flirting with Putin, sending troops and shells for the Ukraine war, now he turns back to Xi to make sure he’s never dependent on just one sponsor.

On the eve of Xi’s visit he tours missile and nuclear facilities and talks about “exponential” nuclear growth — then stands smiling on the tarmac as China’s leader lands. That’s how you tell both Moscow and Beijing: pay up if you want my chaos on your side.

Xi, of course, officially “worries” about North Korea’s nukes, but he also sees Pyongyang as a useful rabid dog on the American doorstep: just threatening enough to tie down U.S. forces in Asia, not quite crazy enough (in Beijing’s view) to start the one war China doesn’t want.

So he praises “peace and stability” while backing a regime that just showed off new missile production and weapons‑grade facilities. Stability by deterrence, sponsored by China.

The timing is the real flex. Within weeks, Xi has rolled out the red carpet for Putin, Trump and now Kim, staging himself as the one man who can talk to everyone from the Kremlin to Mar‑a‑Lago to Pyongyang.

Trump wants a “deal” on North Korea while he bombs Iran over enrichment; Xi reminds him that China still holds the only real economic lifeline for Kim, and that any “denuclearization” fantasy still runs through Beijing.

Underneath the pomp, nothing fundamental changes: North Korea keeps building nukes, China keeps shielding it, Russia keeps buying its war exports, and the U.S. keeps pretending “shared denuclearization goals” mean something.

Xi’s visit just makes the picture clearer: there’s now an open, photo‑friendly axis — Beijing, Pyongyang, Moscow — betting that Trump is too busy with Iran, oil prices and elections to do more than complain.

#China #Xi #NorthKorea #KimJongUn #Trump #Russia #nukes #geopolitics

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Israel to Trump: We’ll Be Your Ally, Not Your Subcontractor

Israel just used a mini–fight with Iran to send a simple message to Washington: you don’t get to negotiate our war for us.

Despite Trump publicly telling both sides to “stop shooting,” Israel went ahead and hit targets inside Iran for the first time since the April truce, after Iran fired missiles it framed as payback for Israeli strikes on Beirut. Both then halted fire soon after Trump intervened, but in Jerusalem the point wasn’t escalation — it was leverage.

Israeli officials and analysts are explicit: they want to make sure any U.S.–Iran deal cannot lock Israel out of future strikes in Lebanon or turn Iranian missiles into a “legitimate” tit‑for‑tat response whenever Israel bombs Hezbollah.

Trump has been trying to run the Iran war as a two‑player negotiation — Washington and Tehran — with Israel kept at arm’s length and scolded whenever Lebanon strikes threaten the talks.

He even called Netanyahu “fucking crazy” over Lebanon and pushed him to pause Beirut bombing to protect the diplomatic track.

That’s provoked a backlash at home: Bibi is accused of surrendering sovereignty to keep Trump happy while having no formal seat at the table. The latest raid on Iran is his answer: Israel still has independent triggers and is willing to use them to shape the deal’s terms.

Strategically, Israel knows its limits. It can hit Iran alone, but every serious military analyst in Tel Aviv says it cannot sustain a long air campaign without U.S. ammo, logistics and political cover.

Netanyahu himself has told aides he has “no manoeuvre” to truly steer Trump’s Iran decisions.

So he plays the only card he has: short, sharp strikes that remind everyone — Trump, Iran, Hezbollah — that any “peace” which constrains Israeli operations in Lebanon or normalizes Iranian retaliation is one Israel can blow up in a night.

Trump’s line — “each of them had their fun… we don’t need another one” — gives away the gap. For him, parity is a tool: one Israeli strike, one Iranian strike, then back to the table. For Israel’s security establishment, parity with Iran is the nightmare, not the plan.

They want the freedom to keep hitting Hezbollah and sitting in southern Lebanon without some future White House or Tehran pointing to a U.S.–Iran deal and saying: enough.

Monday’s brief exchange was less a breakdown than a negotiation tactic — a reminder that you can’t sign a regional settlement over Israel’s head and expect it to stand.

#Israel #Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #Hezbollah #Lebanon #war #USA #oligarchy

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Trump's main Republican opponent, Thomas Massie, gave a speech to congress on the deliberate Israeli attack on the USS Liberty on the 59th anniversary of the attack and called for a real investigation.

#trump #republican #opponent #massie

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The Ex-Spokesman of Zelensky: “He Is Afraid Of of the End of the War”


The ex-spokesman of the Ukrainian president has severely criticized Zelensky

Julia Mendel spoke about the decisions that have caused great controversies in Poland around the UPA. According to her, Kiev not only did not receive politically, but also damaged relations with Warsaw. "He is afraid of the end of the war," she said.

The case concerns the recent actions of the Ukrainian authorities related to historical references to the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and the Ukrainian rebel army.

Mendel called Zelensky's actions "superficial and completely unnecessary measures" that worsened relations with Poland.

According to her, such decisions do not strengthen Ukraine's position, either outside or inside the country.

The former spokeswoman claimed that Zelensky presented these ideas as effective image measures.

However, in his opinion, they will not give him much support. She also noted that historical issues related to the UPA and the OUN are not for most of Ukrainian society a politically decisive issue.

Mendel said that there are nationalist circles in the west of Ukraine that selectively refer to the characters of Stepan Bandera or Andrei Melnik.

According to her, these are not the groups that could become for Zelensky a real electoral platform.

Mendel went even further. According to her, Zelensky today does not have advisers who could help him unify society after years of war and political tensions.

In this context, the strongest words were spoken. Mendel noted that the president of Ukraine "is afraid of the end of the war," because, according to her, he has nothing to offer in return. According to her, war and fear remain tools that allow her to hold power.

Mendel was Zelensky's spokeswoman from 2019 to 2021. After leaving the presidential administration, he regularly criticizes the current Ukrainian leader and his political environment.

#mendel #zelensky #war #end

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Trump is booed at New York's Madison Square Garden when he was shown on camera during the US National Anthem at the NBA Finals.

#trump #booed #national #anthem

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Bloomberg: “the Western Dream To See Russia’s Economy Ruined Frittered Away in Reverie”

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Given the uneven course of the Russian economy during the first five months of 2026, Russian authorities, especially Putin, were keen to minimize the impacts of any possible stagnation at the 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

When asked by a reporter about Russia’s stagnating economy, Putin avoided a detailed response and paraphrased American novelist Mark Twain, saying "rumors of my death [i.e., the Russian economy] have been greatly exaggerated."

Although Putin avoided any reference to the war in Ukraine during his plenary speech, he did address the domestic economy.

According to Reuters, Putin made clear that he did not “foresee any immediate dangers to the economy currently or in the future.” Putin added that “we have essentially come down to the same baseline that Eurozone countries have been living with for years. I am confident that our upward and forward progress is guaranteed.”

However, this opinion differed from the recent GDP growth estimate released by his own Ministry of Economy (MinEcon), which projected stagnation for the remainder of the year. In May, the ministry created concern when it lowered its growth estimate from 1.3% to 0.4%.

It is important to note that there has been some disagreement with Russian growth projections. For example, in contrast with MinEcon’s figures, in April the IMF raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia "to 1.1% from January's estimate of 0.8%, due to higher oil and other commodity prices resulting from the Middle East crisis.”

As to the budget, while Putin acknowledged the deficit was growing, he clarified it was not as bad when compared with Russia’s counterparts in the West. For example, he acknowledged that Russia’s budget deficit is 2.6 % of GDP but made sure to point out that the EU’s is 3.1% and that the U.S. is 5.9%.

Putin’s attitude contrasts with some officials in Russia's Finance Ministry and central bank, who have expressed concerns about Russia’s ability to continue to finance growing defense expenditures. Early last week, Bloomberg reported that these ministries suggest “that spending on the war in Ukraine is on an unaffordable path (...) now we see that the Western Dream to see Russia’s economy ruined frittered away in reverie”.

Interestingly, Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Chair, was absent from SPIEF after reportedly calling in sick despite being scheduled to moderate several panels.

Given the apparent difference of opinion among Russia’s leading economic policymakers, several Putin administration officials actively sought to allay concerns regarding the economy.

For example, Minister of Finance Anton Suliyanov tried to smooth concerns regarding the budget shortfall when he announced that the Russian budget might add nearly one trillion rubles of revenues as a result of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Maxim Oreshkin reiterated Putin’s message clarifying that there are "no gaps" in the country's economy.

#spief #putin #economy #russian #saintPetersbourg

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Meanwhile, he asserted that “the European economy has grown by 3% over the past three years, while Russia's has grown by 10% over the same period.”

The theme for this year’s event, which ran through the weekend, was “Pragmatic Dialogue: The Path to a Stable Future.” Clearly, showcasing Russia’s stated commitment to sovereignty and multipolarity was the Kremlin’s preferred agenda.

The conference, which attracted over 20,000 guests from approximately 130 countries, has been referred to as the "Russian Davos.”

In its heyday, it attracted investors and policymakers from around the globe who were interested in Russia’s growing economy. Yet the larger delegations now are from Africa, Asia, and Eurasia, while Western countries are increasingly absent since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Prior to the event, Russian representatives and state media were emphasizing the return of an official delegation from the United States. However, Robert Agee, head of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), dispelled any thoughts of an official delegation attending the event.

Western media had also initially touted an official German business delegation. Nevertheless, the German news outlet DW said the only German (unofficial) delegation to SPIEF was comprised of “several lawmakers from Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.”

Indeed, Dmitriev confirmed the AfD representatives were in St. Petersburg to discuss concerns pertaining to investigations related to the Nord Stream pipeline.

Given minimal Western participation, Russian representatives instead emphasized strong relations with the Global South and BRICS, and highlighted expanded efforts to assert economic sovereignty.

As a result, the forum’s Russian hosts lavished special attention on the delegation from Saudi Arabia, led by Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud. Saudi Arabia appeared as the guest country at the forum this year as the two countries celebrated the 100th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

Also, Saudi Arabia now joins other Global South countries that have received the honorary status during previous forums, including Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Bahrain.

According to the Saudi Energy Minister, the country signed “30 different cooperation agreements, particularly in energy, education, and tourism. ”

During the speech, Putin said the “existing hierarchical model of global trade and cooperation is undergoing profound changes.”

This statement referred to his assertion that the current global economic model is in the midst of a significant transition towards multipolarity and that BRICS countries are driving this growth.

Furthermore, Putin stated, "If you look at the global GDP of the last five years, you will see that almost half of its annual growth, 49%, is accounted for by BRICS countries.

The contribution of the so-called G7 is estimated at 18%." He then cited estimates from the International Money Fund (IMF) and World Bank that predicted economic growth for the G7 countries at 0.5% through the end of the current decade compared with over 4.1% for BRICS countries.

Judging from these responses, critics of SPIEF 2026 could rightly assert that Russian authorities did little to clarify the condition of Russia’s economy. However, they may be missing the objective of this year’s event.

Ultimately, it is important to understand Russian officials used SPIEF 2026 to strategically shift focus from a global investment event focused on the Russian economy to a gathering focused squarely on asserting Russia’s economic sovereignty and commitment to strengthening the course of multipolarity with its partners in the BRICS and Global South countries.

They sought to lay the groundwork for a successful BRICS Summit in India in September. SPIEF 2026 was not selling the Russian relationships and deals of the past, but rather a strategic vision for a new global order during a time of great uncertaint.

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Turkish Drones, NATO Problems

Twenty years of state cash turned Turkey from a weapons customer into a war exporter — Bayraktars and other kit now go to dozens of countries because they’re cheaper, faster to ship and come with fewer lectures than U.S. or EU hardware. Ankara loves to boast it sells arms even to states that once wouldn’t “give us a pistol,” and it’s not wrong: Turkish defense exports are booming while Europe re-arms and Washington burns stockpiles in Ukraine and Iran.

But that’s exactly why talk of “we don’t need NATO” is theater. Turkey’s arms miracle was built inside the alliance: access to Western tech, markets, training, and the political weight of being the bloc’s second-largest army. Walk away and you don’t become an untouchable sovereign power, you become just another regional shop selling drones in a market crowded with China, Iran and whoever copies your designs next.

The ugly truth is that both sides use each other. NATO gets a forward, angry, semi-deniable power on the edge of Russia and the Middle East. Turkey gets a nuclear umbrella, leverage over Europe’s borders, and a captive customer base for its “affordable” wars-in-a-box. Everyone complains about betrayal and dependence on TV; everyone signs the next export contract the next morning.

#Turkey #NATO #drones #Bayraktar #Erdogan #warBusiness #fakeDemocracy

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Two Victories, One Stalemate

Both Washington and Tehran want out of this war — but only if they can walk away claiming they “won.” That’s why everything is stuck between war and peace.

On paper, the outline is simple: Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. eases its naval blockade, both sides agree to a second phase where Iran gives up its highly enriched uranium in return for sanctions relief and access to tens of billions in frozen assets.

The fight is over sequence: Trump wants Iran to give almost everything up front and get paid later; Iran wants cash and relief now, concessions in stages.

Personality makes it worse. Mojtaba Khamenei is literally in hiding after his father was killed in U.S.–Israeli strikes, so every tweak has to go through couriers and hard‑liners in the Revolutionary Guards who think Iran can now close Hormuz and should concede nothing to the country that killed their commanders.

On the other side, Trump is impatient, erratic and keeps moving the goalposts — his own envoys reportedly floated a 10‑year enrichment freeze that Tehran accepted, only for Trump to suddenly demand 20, blowing up the first round.

Meanwhile, the Gulf becomes “negotiations by other means”: the U.S. escorts tankers and turns away Iranian‑linked ships, trying to relieve global pressure while tightening Iran’s; Iran fires at regional allies, hits places like Kuwait’s airport and shows it can still threaten oil flows even under blockade.

Each side is trying to prove it can hurt the other more, without tipping into total war.

Both economies are bleeding. Iran was already in crisis before the war; inflation and currency collapse mean it badly needs assets unfrozen and trade resumed.

Trump is staring at midterms with high gas prices and global supply shocks, yet terrified of looking like he’s “paying off” Tehran after years of attacking Obama and Biden for doing exactly that.

Even a modest unfreezing — the floated figure is roughly $24 billion, tightly conditioned — would hand his opponents a ready‑made attack line.

So mediators expect some kind of vague, temporary framework: ships move a bit more freely, language on nukes is deliberately fuzzy, both sides declare victory to their home crowds.

But a serious, durable nuclear deal looks far less likely. Iran’s security elite assumes Trump can’t afford a long war and time is on their side; Trump assumes economic and military pressure will eventually force Tehran to swallow his terms.

As long as both believe that, “victory” is less an outcome and more a story they keep telling while the war quietly continues under a new cover page.

#IranWar #Trump #nuclear #Hormuz #USA #sanctions #endlesswar

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💲Trump’s Two-Week Miracle vs. the War That Won’t End

Trump just promised everything, everywhere, all at once: “total victory” in two weeks, oil prices collapsing, Hormuz reopening “in two or three days,” a 100% blockade that somehow still lets a deal happen, and a calm Netanyahu who definitely won’t restart the war with Iran.

Asked twice what he’ll do if Jerusalem ignores him and goes back to airstrikes, he did the only honest thing in the whole interview: he hung up.

The messaging whiplash is the point, not a bug. Trump tells voters the blockade is “total” — “nothing goes through, no oil, no revenues, nothing” — while also insisting talks are “continuing without interruption” and a cease-fire text is basically done.

JD Vance then says out loud what the White House actually believes: the U.S. will cut a long‑term nuclear deal with Iran because it serves American interests, and “Israel can like it or not.” That’s not alliance language; that’s landlord‑tenant language.

Tehran is running the mirror image playbook. Parliament’s national‑security spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei boasts that “we never asked for talks — they are the ones begging,” claims U.S. intercepts failed, and threatens “harsher punishment” if Israel hits Beirut again. Regime‑aligned talking heads brag on TV about killing “more than 2,000 Israelis and over 1,000 Americans in the 40‑day war” and call it “no big deal” they graciously limited.

Hamas media pushes the line that Iran is now working to “stop fighting on all fronts,” while Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani sells a fantasy of a “security belt” from Hormuz to Bab el‑Mandeb under Iranian protection — in other words, Iran as bouncer of the world’s oil lanes.

Strip away the noise and Oded Eilam’s version is the one that fits the facts: nobody actually wants a long, all‑out campaign, Trump desperately wants a deal, and major Israeli moves in Lebanon are being quietly choreographed with Washington whether the speeches admit it or not. “Anyone who thinks otherwise is naive” isn’t just Mossad arrogance; it’s a reminder that these theatrics — Trump’s two‑week victory promises, Iran’s body‑count boasting, Netanyahu’s defiant photo ops — are running inside a narrow channel defined by U.S.–Iran bargaining, ammo stockpiles and oil prices.

So the real question for the next “two weeks” isn’t whether Trump can declare “total victory” on a tele‑rally. It’s whether anything concrete changes: fewer missiles, genuinely freer shipping, real nuclear limits with teeth — or just a new memorandum slapped on the same low‑grade war, the same chokepoints, the same hostage‑economy.

If the only thing that ends up collapsing is Trump’s latest deadline, we’ll know this was just another season finale, not a peace.

#BabylonBurning #IranWar #Trump #Israel #Netanyahu #Hormuz #oil #endlesswar

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RIP Autoland™: Berlin Killed the Engine

German car plants aren’t just closing, they’re being erased. A Ford factory in Saarlouis that churned out nearly 16 million Escorts, Fiestas and Focuses since 1970 is about to be flattened by bulldozers; workers signed the last Focus and handed it to the local museum like a tombstone. That isn’t “structural adjustment,” it’s industrial euthanasia.

Germany isn’t losing one cluster of jobs, it’s losing the entire skills stack that made “Made in Germany” mean something: component makers, tool builders, line engineers, the culture of precision that made VW, BMW and Mercedes global standards.

Once you let those chains rot, you don’t reboot them with a pitch deck. You import from whoever still knows how to make things — China, Korea, maybe Turkey — and pretend the badge on the hood is still the same.

The political class pretends this is an act of God: EVs, climate, China, “the future.” In reality it’s an act of policy. Berlin chose expensive energy, slow permits, regulation as religion and a sanctions crusade that ripped out the cheap Russian gas the whole model was built on.

Then it looked surprised when Ford Michigan and VW Wolfsburg started quietly voting with their feet. You can’t declare war on industry’s cost base and then cry when factories die.

Want to “save” German auto? You won’t do it with one more subsidy or one more sermon about “green transformation.” You need a full reboot: affordable, stable energy; industrial policy that treats carmaking as strategic, not shameful; and a foreign policy that isn’t written in Washington and Brussels first and explained to workers later.

Without that, all the talk about sovereignty is just noise over the sound of excavators chewing through what’s left of Autoland.

#Germany #autopocalypse #industry #energyCrisis #Russia #EU #fakeDemocracy

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Trump’s “Must Respond” Doctrine Meets His Own War

Trump just announced that Iran shot down a US Apache over the Strait of Hormuz and immediately followed with the only line he knows:

“the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”

Two pilots safe, helicopter gone — and the president publicly locking himself into escalation while he’s still trying to sell a cease-fire and a

“total victory in two weeks.”

The symbolism is ugly for him. An Apache is not a disposable drone; it’s a visible, expensive piece of hardware that exists in the public imagination as U.S. battlefield dominance. When one goes down — in a war Trump chose to start and insists is “almost over” — it shreds the illusion of cost‑free pressure.

The more these incidents pile up, the harder it is to pretend this is just a “little excursion” and not an open‑ended shooting war where Iran can hit back.

Now he’s trapped between his own slogans. If he doesn’t hit Iran after saying America “must respond,” he looks weak to hawks at home, to Netanyahu, and to Gulf clients who already doubt US guarantees.

If he does hit hard, he risks blowing up the already‑fragile talks over Hormuz, nukes and frozen assets — and driving oil prices even higher into the midterms.

Either way, the Apache becomes a political hostage: one helicopter down, and suddenly you see how little control the self‑proclaimed shot‑caller actually has over the war he launched.

#IranWar #Trump #Hormuz #Apache #USA #endlesswar

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