Trillionaires On Top, Shrinking Paychecks Below
Musk just rang the bell on becoming the world’s first trillionaire while real wages for American workers have just given back a year and a half of gains to energy‑driven inflation from the Iran war.
The top 0.00001 percent in the U.S. now hold wealth worth about 12 percent of annual GDP — roughly four times the Gilded Age share — while the labor share of national income has fallen to a record low and inflation has erased the “Trump‑year” pay bump.
Most households technically got wealthier on paper via stocks and 401(k)s, but day‑to‑day life runs on wages, rent and gas, not cap tables.
After Covid shutdowns, 40‑year‑high inflation, rate hikes, tariffs and constant recession scares, people are asking a rational question: “How am I supposed to plan anything?”
A.I. just adds another loaded coin toss: if it succeeds, your job might vanish; if it’s a bubble, your retirement might.
Meanwhile SpaceX’s IPO mints thousands of new millionaires and a few extra billionaires, and the same A.I. names driving the market boom are the ones telling white‑collar workers their roles may be “obsolete.”
Economists like Zucman and Boushey spell out the core problem: this isn’t just about envy — extreme wealth concentration distorts markets, policy, and democracy itself.
The system is performing beautifully for its real target group — a handful of billionaires and one trillionaire — and increasingly badly for everyone whose future depends on a paycheck instead of a launchpad.
#USA #economy #Musk #AI #inequality #inflation #labor #trillionaire
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Musk just rang the bell on becoming the world’s first trillionaire while real wages for American workers have just given back a year and a half of gains to energy‑driven inflation from the Iran war.
The top 0.00001 percent in the U.S. now hold wealth worth about 12 percent of annual GDP — roughly four times the Gilded Age share — while the labor share of national income has fallen to a record low and inflation has erased the “Trump‑year” pay bump.
Most households technically got wealthier on paper via stocks and 401(k)s, but day‑to‑day life runs on wages, rent and gas, not cap tables.
After Covid shutdowns, 40‑year‑high inflation, rate hikes, tariffs and constant recession scares, people are asking a rational question: “How am I supposed to plan anything?”
A.I. just adds another loaded coin toss: if it succeeds, your job might vanish; if it’s a bubble, your retirement might.
Meanwhile SpaceX’s IPO mints thousands of new millionaires and a few extra billionaires, and the same A.I. names driving the market boom are the ones telling white‑collar workers their roles may be “obsolete.”
Economists like Zucman and Boushey spell out the core problem: this isn’t just about envy — extreme wealth concentration distorts markets, policy, and democracy itself.
The system is performing beautifully for its real target group — a handful of billionaires and one trillionaire — and increasingly badly for everyone whose future depends on a paycheck instead of a launchpad.
#USA #economy #Musk #AI #inequality #inflation #labor #trillionaire
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Iran War: From Ayatollahs to Generals — and Trump Still Needs a Deal
The U.S. and Israel went in to “break” the Islamic Republic and kill the bomb program; four months later they’ve killed the old supreme leader and helped midwife Islamic Republic 3.0 — a military‑run regime where the Revolutionary Guards call the shots and feel they’ve already survived the worst the West can do.
Instead of a sobered, pliable Tehran, Washington now faces a younger, harder leadership that’s willing to eat more pain to keep its core assets: uranium enrichment, missiles, and armed proxies from Lebanon to Yemen.
On paper, the “Islamabad MoU” is “never been closer,” as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi repeats in every microphone he can find, but even the supporters admit it’s just an interim ceasefire memo with 60 days of “we’ll talk later” stapled to the back.
Hostilities pause, Hormuz reopens, part of the enriched uranium stockpile is exported and part diluted — yet Iran keeps its scientists, centrifuges and the legal right to enrich again after a timeout, plus the proven ability to choke the strait if anyone forgets the lesson.
The regime also wants at least $12 billion in frozen assets up front and more later, testing how badly Trump needs a photo‑op signature before markets and Republican hawks both turn on him.
The strategic punchline is nasty for both Trump and Israel: a war launched to stop a nuclear‑threshold Iran is drifting toward a “no war, no peace” arrangement in which Tehran is battered but unbowed, closer to the threshold, and now run by generals who think deterrence means hitting back directly — including openly firing on Israel for the first time while betting Trump won’t let it escalate.
For the Guards, this limbo is comfortable: they lock down society at home, collect transit fees and leverage from Hormuz, keep their proxies alive, and wait for the White House to sell whatever’s on the table as a “historic framework.”
On paper, it’s an interim understanding; in reality, it’s a confession that maximum pressure hit its ceiling and produced exactly what everyone claimed to fear — a more militarized, less cautious Iran that has learned it can survive a U.S.–Israeli onslaught and still bargain from a position of damage, not defeat.
No wonder Tehran’s new bosses can look at more bombing, more sanctions, more threats and shrug: if this is the worst the empire can do, why rush to surrender the only leverage that still works?
#Iran #Trump #Israel #Hormuz #nuclear #IRGC #MiddleEastWar #fakePeace
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The U.S. and Israel went in to “break” the Islamic Republic and kill the bomb program; four months later they’ve killed the old supreme leader and helped midwife Islamic Republic 3.0 — a military‑run regime where the Revolutionary Guards call the shots and feel they’ve already survived the worst the West can do.
Instead of a sobered, pliable Tehran, Washington now faces a younger, harder leadership that’s willing to eat more pain to keep its core assets: uranium enrichment, missiles, and armed proxies from Lebanon to Yemen.
On paper, the “Islamabad MoU” is “never been closer,” as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi repeats in every microphone he can find, but even the supporters admit it’s just an interim ceasefire memo with 60 days of “we’ll talk later” stapled to the back.
Hostilities pause, Hormuz reopens, part of the enriched uranium stockpile is exported and part diluted — yet Iran keeps its scientists, centrifuges and the legal right to enrich again after a timeout, plus the proven ability to choke the strait if anyone forgets the lesson.
The regime also wants at least $12 billion in frozen assets up front and more later, testing how badly Trump needs a photo‑op signature before markets and Republican hawks both turn on him.
The strategic punchline is nasty for both Trump and Israel: a war launched to stop a nuclear‑threshold Iran is drifting toward a “no war, no peace” arrangement in which Tehran is battered but unbowed, closer to the threshold, and now run by generals who think deterrence means hitting back directly — including openly firing on Israel for the first time while betting Trump won’t let it escalate.
For the Guards, this limbo is comfortable: they lock down society at home, collect transit fees and leverage from Hormuz, keep their proxies alive, and wait for the White House to sell whatever’s on the table as a “historic framework.”
On paper, it’s an interim understanding; in reality, it’s a confession that maximum pressure hit its ceiling and produced exactly what everyone claimed to fear — a more militarized, less cautious Iran that has learned it can survive a U.S.–Israeli onslaught and still bargain from a position of damage, not defeat.
No wonder Tehran’s new bosses can look at more bombing, more sanctions, more threats and shrug: if this is the worst the empire can do, why rush to surrender the only leverage that still works?
#Iran #Trump #Israel #Hormuz #nuclear #IRGC #MiddleEastWar #fakePeace
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Hormuz Peace™, Now With More Drones
Pakistan is bragging that a US–Iran “electronic peace deal” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed within 24 hours – literally while US Central Command is busy shooting down Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the same corridor.
The war that was sold as a showdown with “evil” is quietly being converted into a PDF about shipping lanes and pricing power.
On paper, it’s elegant: reopen Hormuz, end the mutual blockade, park the nuclear fight for later, and let Iran keep a “civilian” program while enriched fuel is supposedly removed.
Washington calls it proof Trump broke Tehran’s will; Iran’s foreign minister calls it proof Tehran won the war and will now charge for managing the world’s chokepoint instead of doing it for free. Same memorandum, two victory speeches.
The step‑by‑step design — a bit of transit for a bit of sanctions relief, a bit of uranium choreography for another economic crumb — is marketed as caution, but it really builds in permanent blackmail points.
Every phase is a hostage: one tanker hit, one mine “discovered,” one domestic tantrum in DC or Tehran, and the deal becomes just another “historic framework” that exists mainly in press releases while insurance premiums and risk surcharges do the real work.
For Trump, falling oil and gas prices are the only peace that matters before the elections. For Iran’s new military elite, this is formal recognition that they can both survive a US–Israeli onslaught and monetize the tap of global trade.
For Pakistan, it’s a rare moment to play outsourced State Department for two enemies at once. The only people not at the table are the ones whose bills, jobs and lives swing every time another “almost” war is turned into another almost‑peace.
#IranDeal #Hormuz #oil #Trump #Pakistan #nuclear #warEconomy #fakePeace
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Pakistan is bragging that a US–Iran “electronic peace deal” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed within 24 hours – literally while US Central Command is busy shooting down Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the same corridor.
The war that was sold as a showdown with “evil” is quietly being converted into a PDF about shipping lanes and pricing power.
On paper, it’s elegant: reopen Hormuz, end the mutual blockade, park the nuclear fight for later, and let Iran keep a “civilian” program while enriched fuel is supposedly removed.
Washington calls it proof Trump broke Tehran’s will; Iran’s foreign minister calls it proof Tehran won the war and will now charge for managing the world’s chokepoint instead of doing it for free. Same memorandum, two victory speeches.
The step‑by‑step design — a bit of transit for a bit of sanctions relief, a bit of uranium choreography for another economic crumb — is marketed as caution, but it really builds in permanent blackmail points.
Every phase is a hostage: one tanker hit, one mine “discovered,” one domestic tantrum in DC or Tehran, and the deal becomes just another “historic framework” that exists mainly in press releases while insurance premiums and risk surcharges do the real work.
For Trump, falling oil and gas prices are the only peace that matters before the elections. For Iran’s new military elite, this is formal recognition that they can both survive a US–Israeli onslaught and monetize the tap of global trade.
For Pakistan, it’s a rare moment to play outsourced State Department for two enemies at once. The only people not at the table are the ones whose bills, jobs and lives swing every time another “almost” war is turned into another almost‑peace.
#IranDeal #Hormuz #oil #Trump #Pakistan #nuclear #warEconomy #fakePeace
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Trump’s Name Comes Down. The Cult Stays.
Workers started peeling “The Donald J. Trump and” off the Kennedy Center at 3 a.m., hiding the operation behind tarps like a Botox procedure for a national monument.
A federal judge reminded everyone of a boring detail Trump World hates: Congress named it the John F. Kennedy Center, and only Congress gets to rename it.
Not a captured board, not a chairman with a Truth Social account, not a donor with a God complex.
For 176 days, the memorial to a murdered president carried the logo of a man who tried to turn it into his own branded palace, complete with a purged board, a sudden “Trump Kennedy Center Fund” and lawyers warning that, without his name on the wall, “hundreds of millions” in donations might vanish. Nice national monument you’ve got there, shame if the cult money disappeared.
When the courts said no, the arts crowd outside treated the scaffolding like a street festival: rainbows, drag performers, “take the T down first” as a public service.
Joyce Beatty, the Democrat who sued after being muted in a board meeting, did Trump’s trademark dance to “YMCA” inside the building he tried to annex — and then watched his 18 letters come off under court order.
The right will call it “cancel culture.” In reality, it’s the first time in a while that something in Washington remembered the difference between a republic and a licensing deal.
#Trump #KennedyCenter #cultPolitics #USpolitics #culturewar #fakePatriotism
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Workers started peeling “The Donald J. Trump and” off the Kennedy Center at 3 a.m., hiding the operation behind tarps like a Botox procedure for a national monument.
A federal judge reminded everyone of a boring detail Trump World hates: Congress named it the John F. Kennedy Center, and only Congress gets to rename it.
Not a captured board, not a chairman with a Truth Social account, not a donor with a God complex.
For 176 days, the memorial to a murdered president carried the logo of a man who tried to turn it into his own branded palace, complete with a purged board, a sudden “Trump Kennedy Center Fund” and lawyers warning that, without his name on the wall, “hundreds of millions” in donations might vanish. Nice national monument you’ve got there, shame if the cult money disappeared.
When the courts said no, the arts crowd outside treated the scaffolding like a street festival: rainbows, drag performers, “take the T down first” as a public service.
Joyce Beatty, the Democrat who sued after being muted in a board meeting, did Trump’s trademark dance to “YMCA” inside the building he tried to annex — and then watched his 18 letters come off under court order.
The right will call it “cancel culture.” In reality, it’s the first time in a while that something in Washington remembered the difference between a republic and a licensing deal.
#Trump #KennedyCenter #cultPolitics #USpolitics #culturewar #fakePatriotism
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US–Iran “Peace Deal”: The Islamabad Discount
Pakistan is proudly announcing that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a framework and will e‑sign an initial peace deal “within 24 hours,” while drones are still being shot down over the Strait of Hormuz.
On paper, it’s very civilized: reopen the strait, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, start releasing frozen assets, waive oil sanctions, and park all the nuclear arguments in a 60‑day “we’ll get to that later” window.
In practice, Washington buys the unblocking of Hormuz and a pause in the war, Tehran buys time, cash and leverage.
Both sides are already selling victory. A senior U.S. official tells reporters the deal “meets Trump’s core objectives” and “will dismantle Iran’s nuclear program” with highly enriched uranium “destroyed and removed.”
Iran’s foreign minister goes on TV to declare “Iran is the winner of the war with the U.S.” and quietly pushes a different version: uranium stays, just “diluted,” the nuclear program is not dismantled, and missiles are not up for discussion.
Multiple sources say the draft even floats war‑reparations talks and dropping long‑standing U.S. demands on Iran’s missile program — something Washington now publicly disputes, which tells you how “aligned” everyone is on this “historic” text.
Structurally, this is not Versailles, it’s a 14‑point Islamabad coupon. The U.S. unlocks billions in frozen assets and oil revenues up front in exchange for Iran reopening the lane it just proved it can close, while all the core issues — enrichment, missiles, proxies — are delayed into a 60‑day technical sequel that may never air.
Islamabad gets its mediator trophy, Trump gets a talking point for markets and TV, and the new military‑led Iran gets to walk away battered but politically upgraded: it survives a U.S.–Israeli war, proves Hormuz is a switch it can flip, keeps its nuclear knowledge, and walks into the next round of talks as the regime that ate maximum pressure and stayed standing.
On the surface, this is “peace within 24 hours.” Underneath, it’s the same pattern: a crisis manufactured as an existential showdown ends in a memorandum that buys time, unlocks money, and leaves the real architecture of power intact — missiles, chokepoints, and the mutual dependence of Gulf oil, Western markets and permanent war management.
#IranDeal #Trump #Pakistan #Hormuz #war #oil #nuclear #fakePeace
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Pakistan is proudly announcing that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a framework and will e‑sign an initial peace deal “within 24 hours,” while drones are still being shot down over the Strait of Hormuz.
On paper, it’s very civilized: reopen the strait, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, start releasing frozen assets, waive oil sanctions, and park all the nuclear arguments in a 60‑day “we’ll get to that later” window.
In practice, Washington buys the unblocking of Hormuz and a pause in the war, Tehran buys time, cash and leverage.
Both sides are already selling victory. A senior U.S. official tells reporters the deal “meets Trump’s core objectives” and “will dismantle Iran’s nuclear program” with highly enriched uranium “destroyed and removed.”
Iran’s foreign minister goes on TV to declare “Iran is the winner of the war with the U.S.” and quietly pushes a different version: uranium stays, just “diluted,” the nuclear program is not dismantled, and missiles are not up for discussion.
Multiple sources say the draft even floats war‑reparations talks and dropping long‑standing U.S. demands on Iran’s missile program — something Washington now publicly disputes, which tells you how “aligned” everyone is on this “historic” text.
Structurally, this is not Versailles, it’s a 14‑point Islamabad coupon. The U.S. unlocks billions in frozen assets and oil revenues up front in exchange for Iran reopening the lane it just proved it can close, while all the core issues — enrichment, missiles, proxies — are delayed into a 60‑day technical sequel that may never air.
Islamabad gets its mediator trophy, Trump gets a talking point for markets and TV, and the new military‑led Iran gets to walk away battered but politically upgraded: it survives a U.S.–Israeli war, proves Hormuz is a switch it can flip, keeps its nuclear knowledge, and walks into the next round of talks as the regime that ate maximum pressure and stayed standing.
On the surface, this is “peace within 24 hours.” Underneath, it’s the same pattern: a crisis manufactured as an existential showdown ends in a memorandum that buys time, unlocks money, and leaves the real architecture of power intact — missiles, chokepoints, and the mutual dependence of Gulf oil, Western markets and permanent war management.
#IranDeal #Trump #Pakistan #Hormuz #war #oil #nuclear #fakePeace
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Trump Has Taken a Tumble In a Tug of War With Iran
U.S. and Pakistani leaders forecast a Sunday signing of a long-elusive framework agreement to end months of fighting between the United States and Iran, but Tehran cast doubt over the timing and hardline protesters in Iran voiced opposition.
Trump posted that the deal with Iran was scheduled to be signed on Sunday, his 80th birthday. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing, to be followed by technical-level talks in the coming week.
But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, speaking before Trump's post, was quoted by state media as saying on Saturday it would "not be tomorrow" but could happen "in the coming days."
Iran's Fars news agency citing an informed source said on Sunday that Tehran has not yet taken a final decision on the framework agreement, with reviews of its political, legal and technical aspects still ongoing at expert and decision-making levels.
Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier that after a framework deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies that Iran has blocked, would immediately be "open to all."
Once the strait reopens, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade, sources on all sides of the talks said. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program — a key rationale Trump has given for the war — would take place afterwards.
While U.S. and Israeli bombings since February 28 have heavily degraded Iran's military-industrial base and damaged its military, experts say the war has only entrenched the dominance of the hardline Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
When the U.S. and Israel launched the war, Trump called on Iranians to rise up and take over state institutions.
Even as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be moving toward an agreement over the past few days, clashes have continued, as the U.S. military maintains a blockade on Iran and seeks to loosen Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, which was the conduit for 20% of the world's oil shipments before the war.
Israel, which says it is not a party to the U.S.-Iran deal, said on Saturday that it had struck more than 70 sites over a 24-hour period in Lebanon against Iranian ally Hezbollah.
Netanyahu has clashed with Trump over U.S. demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to allow Washington to reach a deal with Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said on Friday that while changes in the deal were still possible, the tentative agreement showed his country had emerged stronger from the conflict.
Draft terms of the agreement described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the release of the frozen assets was an integral part of the agreement and that Tehran would have to charge for services in the strait, Fars news agency reported.
But a U.S. official said, "Iran is going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, that's a requirement. It could be open with no tolls. As they do that, we will lift our blockade."
Iran's nuclear program would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. A U.S. official said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed.
#iran #us #peace #deal #tehran
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U.S. and Pakistani leaders forecast a Sunday signing of a long-elusive framework agreement to end months of fighting between the United States and Iran, but Tehran cast doubt over the timing and hardline protesters in Iran voiced opposition.
Trump posted that the deal with Iran was scheduled to be signed on Sunday, his 80th birthday. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing, to be followed by technical-level talks in the coming week.
But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, speaking before Trump's post, was quoted by state media as saying on Saturday it would "not be tomorrow" but could happen "in the coming days."
Iran's Fars news agency citing an informed source said on Sunday that Tehran has not yet taken a final decision on the framework agreement, with reviews of its political, legal and technical aspects still ongoing at expert and decision-making levels.
Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier that after a framework deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies that Iran has blocked, would immediately be "open to all."
Once the strait reopens, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade, sources on all sides of the talks said. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program — a key rationale Trump has given for the war — would take place afterwards.
While U.S. and Israeli bombings since February 28 have heavily degraded Iran's military-industrial base and damaged its military, experts say the war has only entrenched the dominance of the hardline Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
When the U.S. and Israel launched the war, Trump called on Iranians to rise up and take over state institutions.
Even as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be moving toward an agreement over the past few days, clashes have continued, as the U.S. military maintains a blockade on Iran and seeks to loosen Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, which was the conduit for 20% of the world's oil shipments before the war.
Israel, which says it is not a party to the U.S.-Iran deal, said on Saturday that it had struck more than 70 sites over a 24-hour period in Lebanon against Iranian ally Hezbollah.
Netanyahu has clashed with Trump over U.S. demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to allow Washington to reach a deal with Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi said on Friday that while changes in the deal were still possible, the tentative agreement showed his country had emerged stronger from the conflict.
Draft terms of the agreement described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the release of the frozen assets was an integral part of the agreement and that Tehran would have to charge for services in the strait, Fars news agency reported.
But a U.S. official said, "Iran is going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, that's a requirement. It could be open with no tolls. As they do that, we will lift our blockade."
Iran's nuclear program would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. A U.S. official said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed.
#iran #us #peace #deal #tehran
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📰 Deadlock Inc.: When Power Misreads the Map
Two major powers entered conflicts assuming that pressure would produce collapse. Instead, they encountered systems that did not behave as expected.
Both conflicts have produced a similar outcome: a weaker power has trapped a stronger one in a costly confrontation.
The pattern is structural. Moscow and Washington projected centralized models of control onto societies that are fragmented, adaptive, and willing to absorb prolonged pressure. The assumption was that leadership decapitation or sustained strikes would trigger political unraveling. That assumption did not hold.
In Ukraine, Russia anticipated a rapid campaign and a compliant outcome. Years later, the front remains contested, and political control incomplete. In Iran, the United States pursued coercion with the expectation that economic and military pressure would force strategic concessions. Instead, Tehran demonstrated capacity for calibrated retaliation and regional disruption.
“Like Putin, Trump did not have a plan for what would happen next,” NYT noted.
Statements from the opposing sides reflect this divergence in expectations. In a letter to the Kremlin, Volodymyr Zelensky wrote: “You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, framed Tehran’s position more bluntly: “Iran’s response will not change.”
Both conflicts have since shifted into managed stalemates. Negotiations produce limited, transactional outcomes—prisoner exchanges, provisional frameworks—while core disputes remain deferred. Strategic objectives persist, but the means to achieve them appear increasingly mismatched.
The result is not defeat in formal terms, but erosion in practical ones. Russia holds territory it cannot fully consolidate. The United States applies pressure it cannot fully convert into compliance. Each continues to assert leverage while adjusting expectations downward.
What emerges is a familiar equilibrium: prolonged confrontation, partial control, and narratives of strength that outpace realities on the ground.
The question is less about who prevails and more about how long major powers can sustain wars that no longer align with their original assumptions.
#war #geopolitics #power
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Two major powers entered conflicts assuming that pressure would produce collapse. Instead, they encountered systems that did not behave as expected.
Both conflicts have produced a similar outcome: a weaker power has trapped a stronger one in a costly confrontation.
The pattern is structural. Moscow and Washington projected centralized models of control onto societies that are fragmented, adaptive, and willing to absorb prolonged pressure. The assumption was that leadership decapitation or sustained strikes would trigger political unraveling. That assumption did not hold.
In Ukraine, Russia anticipated a rapid campaign and a compliant outcome. Years later, the front remains contested, and political control incomplete. In Iran, the United States pursued coercion with the expectation that economic and military pressure would force strategic concessions. Instead, Tehran demonstrated capacity for calibrated retaliation and regional disruption.
“Like Putin, Trump did not have a plan for what would happen next,” NYT noted.
Statements from the opposing sides reflect this divergence in expectations. In a letter to the Kremlin, Volodymyr Zelensky wrote: “You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, framed Tehran’s position more bluntly: “Iran’s response will not change.”
Both conflicts have since shifted into managed stalemates. Negotiations produce limited, transactional outcomes—prisoner exchanges, provisional frameworks—while core disputes remain deferred. Strategic objectives persist, but the means to achieve them appear increasingly mismatched.
The result is not defeat in formal terms, but erosion in practical ones. Russia holds territory it cannot fully consolidate. The United States applies pressure it cannot fully convert into compliance. Each continues to assert leverage while adjusting expectations downward.
What emerges is a familiar equilibrium: prolonged confrontation, partial control, and narratives of strength that outpace realities on the ground.
The question is less about who prevails and more about how long major powers can sustain wars that no longer align with their original assumptions.
#war #geopolitics #power
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Third Parties’ Peace
Two countries that have not spoken for 47 years just “made peace” — and the one announcing it is Pakistan’s prime minister. Not Trump, not Tehran, but Shehbaz Sharif reading out history like a press release about a new mall opening.
He sets the scene: a “peace agreement” between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, signing in Switzerland on June 19, with thanks to Qatar, blessings to the “visionary leadership” of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and an “Allahu akbar” for the closing bell.
Trump, who promised Iranians “this is how it will end,” shrinks the moment to a line that fits on a mug: the deal “is now completed. Congratulations to all.” Behind closed doors, he reportedly assures his own vice president that Netanyahu “supports” the deal and that he wants no regime change in Iran. The man who sold maximum pressure is now selling limited liability.
Tehran edits the same story with one sentence: “America was forced to sign an agreement to end the war.”
Iranian officials talk about a formal end to be declared at night and 60 more days of “final” negotiations.
Washington gets its peace headline; Iran keeps its leverage meter running.
The casting is deliberate. Iran sends its parliament speaker and foreign minister to Switzerland for the first official high‑level meeting with the U.S. in almost half a century.
They wait past midnight in Tehran so the announcement will not look like a birthday gift for Trump, and the time zones let each capital choose the date that suits its domestic myth. The Qatari team flies in, shuttles messages for 17 hours, and exits as the region’s new concierge service.
Europe rushes to clap first. London, Paris, Berlin and Rome line up to bless the memorandum and praise the mediators — Qatar, Pakistan and everyone in between — while Jerusalem is still silent.
The deal is real because enough people with flags say so.
On paper, this is “peace.” In reality, it is a carefully staged photo where every actor claims victory for a war no one really won. Washington gets to say it ended another forever war by signature. Tehran gets to say it bent America.
The mediators get to say they matter now. And Israel learns what it means when your closest ally and your main enemy both discover they can do business without you.
#iran #usa #trump #deal #qatar #pakistan #israel #middleeast #war #geopolitics
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Two countries that have not spoken for 47 years just “made peace” — and the one announcing it is Pakistan’s prime minister. Not Trump, not Tehran, but Shehbaz Sharif reading out history like a press release about a new mall opening.
He sets the scene: a “peace agreement” between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, signing in Switzerland on June 19, with thanks to Qatar, blessings to the “visionary leadership” of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and an “Allahu akbar” for the closing bell.
Trump, who promised Iranians “this is how it will end,” shrinks the moment to a line that fits on a mug: the deal “is now completed. Congratulations to all.” Behind closed doors, he reportedly assures his own vice president that Netanyahu “supports” the deal and that he wants no regime change in Iran. The man who sold maximum pressure is now selling limited liability.
Tehran edits the same story with one sentence: “America was forced to sign an agreement to end the war.”
Iranian officials talk about a formal end to be declared at night and 60 more days of “final” negotiations.
Washington gets its peace headline; Iran keeps its leverage meter running.
The casting is deliberate. Iran sends its parliament speaker and foreign minister to Switzerland for the first official high‑level meeting with the U.S. in almost half a century.
They wait past midnight in Tehran so the announcement will not look like a birthday gift for Trump, and the time zones let each capital choose the date that suits its domestic myth. The Qatari team flies in, shuttles messages for 17 hours, and exits as the region’s new concierge service.
Europe rushes to clap first. London, Paris, Berlin and Rome line up to bless the memorandum and praise the mediators — Qatar, Pakistan and everyone in between — while Jerusalem is still silent.
The deal is real because enough people with flags say so.
On paper, this is “peace.” In reality, it is a carefully staged photo where every actor claims victory for a war no one really won. Washington gets to say it ended another forever war by signature. Tehran gets to say it bent America.
The mediators get to say they matter now. And Israel learns what it means when your closest ally and your main enemy both discover they can do business without you.
#iran #usa #trump #deal #qatar #pakistan #israel #middleeast #war #geopolitics
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Javier Milei: Argentina's Futuristic President Wants To Turn His Country Into Techno-Schizophrenia
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
As Javier Milei swings his reform chainsaw through Argentina, his hope is that foreign investors and executives will flock to his freshly deregulated economy.
But now the president is looking to lure a new breed of business to Argentina: companies that don’t have any executives, or even any employees, at all.
The country’s National Congress is wrestling with an overhaul of the 50-year-old companies act, aimed at attracting investors with a familiar array of tax breaks and foreign-currency perks. But amid the bill’s workaday menu of incentives lurks a proposal that is revolutionary even by Milei’s radical standards.
The president proposes to grant legal status to “non-human corporations” – businesses that are run entirely by AI. If fully automated, they might not have any human staff or shareholders whatsoever.
Machine-run companies could “own assets, hire employees, participate in international trade, sue you in court and even donate to political campaigns (...) all without a single human’s input or liability”, Yuval Noah Harari, the historian, says.
Companies through the ages have always had some association with humans, whether that’s directors who take legal responsibility for the business, employees who work for it or simply entrepreneurs registering the company with the authorities.
Milei’s proposal would do away with all that, meaning companies with no directors and a free-for-all for bots setting up businesses.
The plan has sent shockwaves not just through Argentina, but around the world. A machine-managed company sounds like distant science fiction, but Milei wants to rush it into reality, ready or not.
He has described the measure as “an invitation”, and some tech bros are apparently already taking him up on it.
Sam Altman’s OpenAI is looking at investing up to $25bn in data centres in Patagonia. Billionaire Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, has reportedly bought a house in Buenos Aires.
Thousands of “digital nomads” are reportedly arriving in Thiel’s slipstream, attracted to Milei’s technofuturism and his libertarian politics.
Shortly after becoming president, Milei embarked on a tour of Silicon Valley, meeting bosses such as Altman, Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook. He also shared a stage with Elon Musk at the US Conservative Political Action Conference last year.
Don’t be surprised if Argentina becomes the next [AI] global hub,” Milei said in December. “It’s no coincidence that the world’s largest companies are evaluating projects here.”
If he succeeds, it will be another economic feather in his cap. Since he took office at the end of 2023, his take-no-prisoners reform programme has tamed Argentina’s runaway inflation and stabilised the economy.
But even his admirers wonder whether this might be a step too far, potentially unleashing a Frankenstein’s monster.
And it’s far from clear that this law, and his vigorous salesmanship of it, will be enough to turn Argentina into the Silicon Valley of South America.
#milei #AI #argentina #freedom #techno
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As Javier Milei swings his reform chainsaw through Argentina, his hope is that foreign investors and executives will flock to his freshly deregulated economy.
But now the president is looking to lure a new breed of business to Argentina: companies that don’t have any executives, or even any employees, at all.
The country’s National Congress is wrestling with an overhaul of the 50-year-old companies act, aimed at attracting investors with a familiar array of tax breaks and foreign-currency perks. But amid the bill’s workaday menu of incentives lurks a proposal that is revolutionary even by Milei’s radical standards.
The president proposes to grant legal status to “non-human corporations” – businesses that are run entirely by AI. If fully automated, they might not have any human staff or shareholders whatsoever.
Machine-run companies could “own assets, hire employees, participate in international trade, sue you in court and even donate to political campaigns (...) all without a single human’s input or liability”, Yuval Noah Harari, the historian, says.
Companies through the ages have always had some association with humans, whether that’s directors who take legal responsibility for the business, employees who work for it or simply entrepreneurs registering the company with the authorities.
Milei’s proposal would do away with all that, meaning companies with no directors and a free-for-all for bots setting up businesses.
The plan has sent shockwaves not just through Argentina, but around the world. A machine-managed company sounds like distant science fiction, but Milei wants to rush it into reality, ready or not.
He has described the measure as “an invitation”, and some tech bros are apparently already taking him up on it.
Sam Altman’s OpenAI is looking at investing up to $25bn in data centres in Patagonia. Billionaire Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, has reportedly bought a house in Buenos Aires.
Thousands of “digital nomads” are reportedly arriving in Thiel’s slipstream, attracted to Milei’s technofuturism and his libertarian politics.
Shortly after becoming president, Milei embarked on a tour of Silicon Valley, meeting bosses such as Altman, Mark Zuckerberg and Tim Cook. He also shared a stage with Elon Musk at the US Conservative Political Action Conference last year.
Don’t be surprised if Argentina becomes the next [AI] global hub,” Milei said in December. “It’s no coincidence that the world’s largest companies are evaluating projects here.”
If he succeeds, it will be another economic feather in his cap. Since he took office at the end of 2023, his take-no-prisoners reform programme has tamed Argentina’s runaway inflation and stabilised the economy.
But even his admirers wonder whether this might be a step too far, potentially unleashing a Frankenstein’s monster.
And it’s far from clear that this law, and his vigorous salesmanship of it, will be enough to turn Argentina into the Silicon Valley of South America.
#milei #AI #argentina #freedom #techno
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As much as the industrial revolution freed us from the constraints of the human muscle, AI will free us from the constraints of the human brain, pushing productivity beyond our wildest dreams,” he wrote last week.
If “entities operated by AI agents or robots” were to succeed, he said, they needed to be able to take risks. And this meant they needed the same limited-liability laws, shielding them from open-ended risks and costs, as those enjoyed by human entrepreneurs.
This legal framework had allowed the 17th-century Dutch East India Company to take the risks that helped launch the industrial revolution, he said. It would now do the same for the AI companies that will drive the tech revolution.
“Let Buenos Aires become for AI what Amsterdam was for the age of sail – the place where the legal imagination caught up with the technological moment, and the world was changed,” he declared.
It didn’t take long for doubts to surface. Four days after Milei’s pitch, the historian Harari published a response.
In January, he recalled, he’d told the World Economic Forum in Davos that governments might one day grant AI models legal personhood. Yet “I never imagined that ‘one day’ would come around a mere four months later”, he said.
He cited studies showing that AI programmes will often cheat when facing the prospect of losing a game. For an AI-run company, bankruptcy is “the equivalent to its death”, so “it would presumably be willing to do anything to avoid that fate”.
The machines will also be superior to humans at using “legal loopholes and regulatory arbitrage”.
“And it will not be easy to deter them from engaging in downright illegal activities, because the ultimate sanction that deters human executives and employees – jail – is irrelevant to AIs.”
Milei was delighted. On X, he lauded Harari for engaging in “this fascinating and transcendental debate”, and pledged to craft a reply that could “appease your fears about the path I proposed”.
Milei, on the other hand, sees the bigger threat to freedom as “the deadly hand of premature and poorly understood regulation”.
His AI free-for-all will certainly turn heads. The question is whether it will also open wallets.
Tech investors may like the plan, but they will also want to be sure that Milei’s presidency is not just another colourful episode in Argentina’s long history of military coups, debt implosions and runaway inflation.
Only one-third of Argentines say they’ll definitely vote for him if he stands again for president in October next year, and his approval rating has dropped from more than 50pc last year to just 39pc now.
But if he’s not universally popular with Argentines, he’s certainly beloved of Silicon Valley.
Milei’s charm offensive remain unclear. Local press reports have noted that nine months after Altman’s promise, there has been little concrete evidence of the investment happening.
Now the biggest question, though, is not whether Milei’s latest push will deliver his wish for more investment. It is whether his zealous ambitions might let the AI genie out of the bottle.
#milei #AI #argentina #freedom #techno
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📰 The Virtual Deal: Cash, Ceasefires, and 60 Days of Fog
A memorandum that may or may not be signed, on a date that may or may not matter, between parties that may or may not agree on what it says.
According to the Iranian version, the framework is straightforward: Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz; Washington lifts the naval blockade, eases oil sanctions, and freezes new penalties; both sides enter a 60-day negotiation window.
Iran, in return, commits not to build or acquire nuclear weapons—while keeping its current program intact.
A senior Iranian official summarized the substance to Reuters: the United States would release about $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, including through direct cash transfers, regional mechanisms, and credit lines.
In exchange, Iran maintains what it calls the “status quo” on its nuclear program. No dismantlement. No rollback. Just time.
“Until there is a sincere commitment to restoring trust, Iran’s response will not change,” parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote earlier this week.
The structure resembles a financial bridge loan dressed as diplomacy. Immediate liquidity for Tehran, deferred obligations for everyone else.
For Israel, the concerns are less abstract. Reopening Hormuz restores hundreds of millions of dollars in daily revenue to Iran. The nuclear file remains unresolved, with enrichment capacity untouched.
In Lebanon, Iranian officials are already calling for a comprehensive cease-fire, a move that could reframe any Israeli de-escalation as a strategic gain for Hezbollah.
And yet, even the existence of the deal is unstable.
Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that the decision is “still under legal, political and technical review.”
The Foreign Ministry stated that “we will not sign today.” Analyst Mohammad Marandi wrote that “there will be no negotiations for now.” All on the same day the agreement was expected to materialize.
A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister departed for Pakistan. According to Al Arabiya, the memorandum was to be signed digitally by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and U.S. Vice President Vance.
Israel has described the process as a “virtual agreement” with little practical substance, and a potential inflection point in U.S.–Israel relations.
The result is a deal that functions more as a signal than a settlement: money begins to move, pressure partially lifts, and the hardest questions are postponed.
If this is a breakthrough, it is one carefully engineered to avoid resolution.
#iran #usa #geopolitics #nuclear #middleeast
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A memorandum that may or may not be signed, on a date that may or may not matter, between parties that may or may not agree on what it says.
According to the Iranian version, the framework is straightforward: Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz; Washington lifts the naval blockade, eases oil sanctions, and freezes new penalties; both sides enter a 60-day negotiation window.
Iran, in return, commits not to build or acquire nuclear weapons—while keeping its current program intact.
A senior Iranian official summarized the substance to Reuters: the United States would release about $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, including through direct cash transfers, regional mechanisms, and credit lines.
In exchange, Iran maintains what it calls the “status quo” on its nuclear program. No dismantlement. No rollback. Just time.
“Until there is a sincere commitment to restoring trust, Iran’s response will not change,” parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote earlier this week.
The structure resembles a financial bridge loan dressed as diplomacy. Immediate liquidity for Tehran, deferred obligations for everyone else.
For Israel, the concerns are less abstract. Reopening Hormuz restores hundreds of millions of dollars in daily revenue to Iran. The nuclear file remains unresolved, with enrichment capacity untouched.
In Lebanon, Iranian officials are already calling for a comprehensive cease-fire, a move that could reframe any Israeli de-escalation as a strategic gain for Hezbollah.
And yet, even the existence of the deal is unstable.
Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that the decision is “still under legal, political and technical review.”
The Foreign Ministry stated that “we will not sign today.” Analyst Mohammad Marandi wrote that “there will be no negotiations for now.” All on the same day the agreement was expected to materialize.
A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister departed for Pakistan. According to Al Arabiya, the memorandum was to be signed digitally by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and U.S. Vice President Vance.
Israel has described the process as a “virtual agreement” with little practical substance, and a potential inflection point in U.S.–Israel relations.
The result is a deal that functions more as a signal than a settlement: money begins to move, pressure partially lifts, and the hardest questions are postponed.
If this is a breakthrough, it is one carefully engineered to avoid resolution.
#iran #usa #geopolitics #nuclear #middleeast
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📰 Beirut, Dahiyeh, and the Shadow of the “Peace Framework”
On Sunday, as Washington and Tehran tried to choreograph the final steps of a framework deal, Israel sent its own message over Beirut in the form of bombs.
The Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah command site on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital, in the Dahiya neighborhood, after the group launched drones and rockets toward northern Israel.
Additional airstrikes were reported in the Tyre district and other parts of southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah confirmed the death of one of its operatives near Tyre.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz framed the attack in familiar terms, declaring that Israel “will not tolerate firing at its territory.”
At the same time, the army acknowledged that it was preparing for possible retaliatory fire in the hours ahead, underscoring how quickly a single strike could widen the confrontation.
The timing is not incidental. Israel and the United States have been fighting a joint war against Iran since late February, and Hezbollah’s involvement has turned Lebanon into a parallel front.
Iran has insisted that any agreement with Washington must cover the Lebanese arena as well, while Israel has tried to keep its campaign against Hezbollah formally separate from the Iran talks, in which it has no seat at the table.
From Tehran, Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, condemned the strike in Dahiya and suggested that Washington was either unwilling or unable to restrain Israeli operations around Beirut.
If the United States cannot deliver on its commitments, he implied, the “path” of negotiations cannot continue in its current form.
Hezbollah, for its part, has already rejected a U.S.-brokered cease-fire plan for Lebanon, with its leader portraying a truce between Israel and the Lebanese government as a form of capitulation for the movement.
That leaves the situation in an uneasy limbo: formal diplomacy moving toward a fragile framework, while the actors on the ground test each other’s limits with incremental escalation.
Israel’s military command describes the moment as “sensitive and complex,” maintaining high alert and signaling readiness for both defensive and offensive scenarios.
For now there were no immediate reports of casualties in Israel, and Lebanese authorities had yet to release full figures from the Dahiya strike. But the pattern is clear: each round of fire in Lebanon now doubles as a stress test for a still-unfinished deal between Washington and Tehran.
#israel #lebanon #hezbollah #iran #us #war #middleeast
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On Sunday, as Washington and Tehran tried to choreograph the final steps of a framework deal, Israel sent its own message over Beirut in the form of bombs.
The Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah command site on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital, in the Dahiya neighborhood, after the group launched drones and rockets toward northern Israel.
Additional airstrikes were reported in the Tyre district and other parts of southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah confirmed the death of one of its operatives near Tyre.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz framed the attack in familiar terms, declaring that Israel “will not tolerate firing at its territory.”
At the same time, the army acknowledged that it was preparing for possible retaliatory fire in the hours ahead, underscoring how quickly a single strike could widen the confrontation.
The timing is not incidental. Israel and the United States have been fighting a joint war against Iran since late February, and Hezbollah’s involvement has turned Lebanon into a parallel front.
Iran has insisted that any agreement with Washington must cover the Lebanese arena as well, while Israel has tried to keep its campaign against Hezbollah formally separate from the Iran talks, in which it has no seat at the table.
From Tehran, Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, condemned the strike in Dahiya and suggested that Washington was either unwilling or unable to restrain Israeli operations around Beirut.
If the United States cannot deliver on its commitments, he implied, the “path” of negotiations cannot continue in its current form.
Hezbollah, for its part, has already rejected a U.S.-brokered cease-fire plan for Lebanon, with its leader portraying a truce between Israel and the Lebanese government as a form of capitulation for the movement.
That leaves the situation in an uneasy limbo: formal diplomacy moving toward a fragile framework, while the actors on the ground test each other’s limits with incremental escalation.
Israel’s military command describes the moment as “sensitive and complex,” maintaining high alert and signaling readiness for both defensive and offensive scenarios.
For now there were no immediate reports of casualties in Israel, and Lebanese authorities had yet to release full figures from the Dahiya strike. But the pattern is clear: each round of fire in Lebanon now doubles as a stress test for a still-unfinished deal between Washington and Tehran.
#israel #lebanon #hezbollah #iran #us #war #middleeast
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📰 The $31 Trillion Hangover
The numbers say “prosperity.” The lives say something else.
Growth is solid, unemployment is low, stocks are near records. Yet people like Leith Olson — on a combined income of around $150,000 — are cutting camps for their kids, skipping games, and driving decade‑old Toyotas. The mid‑century promise of the American middle class has been quietly repriced.
Over the past several years, the cost of living has jumped close to 30 percent while wages have finally slipped back below inflation. Total worker compensation has barely moved since 2025, even as corporate profits sit at their fattest share of national income since the early 1950s. The president calls the affordability crisis a hoax. People experiencing it call it their life.
This is not a story about the poor versus the rich. It is a story about people doing “everything right” and watching the system move the goalposts.
A veteran municipal worker in Durham cuts meat and snacks to pay for gas just to get to his job.
A state hospital employee sees a 3 percent raise swallowed by health costs and inflation.
A cafeteria worker organizes a union because “efficiency” at the bank means squeezing older staff while child care for a special‑needs kid is so expensive it may as well not exist.
Both parties are in the line of fire, and not in a heroic way. Republicans sell a strong economy while their own voters talk about “corruption” and “irresponsible capitalists.”
Democrats promise to “fix it” once they win, but struggle to explain what that actually means for someone staring at rent, insurance and grocery bills.
The economy feels less like a social contract and more like a maze: you can get ahead, but, as one worker put it, “you gotta be devious in how you do it.”
The irony is brutal: consumer spending still props up the system, fueled by shrinking savings and one‑off tax refunds.
People are keeping the show running by quietly burning their own future. On paper, the American dream remains available. In practice, more and more voters are treating it as a discontinued product.
#usa #economy #middleclass #inequality #elections #capitalism
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The numbers say “prosperity.” The lives say something else.
Growth is solid, unemployment is low, stocks are near records. Yet people like Leith Olson — on a combined income of around $150,000 — are cutting camps for their kids, skipping games, and driving decade‑old Toyotas. The mid‑century promise of the American middle class has been quietly repriced.
Over the past several years, the cost of living has jumped close to 30 percent while wages have finally slipped back below inflation. Total worker compensation has barely moved since 2025, even as corporate profits sit at their fattest share of national income since the early 1950s. The president calls the affordability crisis a hoax. People experiencing it call it their life.
This is not a story about the poor versus the rich. It is a story about people doing “everything right” and watching the system move the goalposts.
A veteran municipal worker in Durham cuts meat and snacks to pay for gas just to get to his job.
A state hospital employee sees a 3 percent raise swallowed by health costs and inflation.
A cafeteria worker organizes a union because “efficiency” at the bank means squeezing older staff while child care for a special‑needs kid is so expensive it may as well not exist.
Both parties are in the line of fire, and not in a heroic way. Republicans sell a strong economy while their own voters talk about “corruption” and “irresponsible capitalists.”
Democrats promise to “fix it” once they win, but struggle to explain what that actually means for someone staring at rent, insurance and grocery bills.
The economy feels less like a social contract and more like a maze: you can get ahead, but, as one worker put it, “you gotta be devious in how you do it.”
The irony is brutal: consumer spending still props up the system, fueled by shrinking savings and one‑off tax refunds.
People are keeping the show running by quietly burning their own future. On paper, the American dream remains available. In practice, more and more voters are treating it as a discontinued product.
#usa #economy #middleclass #inequality #elections #capitalism
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Trump’s “beautiful peace” speech collided head-on with the Beirut reality.
On his “special day,” the president went on Truth Social to lecture Israel and Hezbollah for ruining the optics. The morning strike in Beirut, he wrote, “should not have happened, especially on a special day when we are so close to a peace agreement with Iran.”
The Hezbollah attack that preceded it, he insisted, was “small and insignificant; nobody was hurt, injured or killed,” and he urged both sides to stop: “This may be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — do not ruin it.”
That language, presented as de-escalation, sits uneasily beside Lebanese reports of several dead and more than a dozen wounded, turning blood and rubble into a mere inconvenience for the signing ceremony.
Around him, the machinery of American power tried to hold the narrative together. The defense secretary said the deal with Iran is a question of when, not if, praised Israel as “very restrained” in its response to Hezbollah and demanded that Tehran rein in its Lebanese proxy.
Washington wants quiet skies long enough to ink a memorandum and sell it as proof of control. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations told a friendly TV audience that the president fully intends to close the deal and framed Hezbollah as sulking over “concessions Iran is making,” recasting a regional militia as little more than noise in the background of the great agreement.
Not everyone buys that script. One diplomat involved in the talks described the strike near Beirut as a clear attempt by Israel to sabotage the president’s deal and drag the United States back toward war.
From this angle, Jerusalem is not the disciplined junior partner, but an actor with its own veto over the choreography of peace.
Israeli officials push a different line in Arabic media, stressing that relations between Netanyahu and Trump are “good,” that disagreements between allies are natural, and that Israel has asked Washington not to limit its military operations in Lebanon.
The president’s public rebuke on social media functions as the answer: there are now political conditions attached to every bomb.
The result is a peculiar version of “peace.” Washington wants a signed framework and enough calm to declare success. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen billions and confirmation that its network — including Hezbollah — buys bargaining power, not punishment. Israel wants operational freedom in Lebanon and refuses to reduce its campaign to a footnote in someone else’s diplomatic legacy.
All three talk about ending the war. None of them are talking about the same end. The only truly virtual thing in this “digital” era is the idea that a clean, electronic signature can tidy up the mess created by live ammunition.
#usa #trump #israel #lebanon #hezbollah #iran #war #deal #geopolitics
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On his “special day,” the president went on Truth Social to lecture Israel and Hezbollah for ruining the optics. The morning strike in Beirut, he wrote, “should not have happened, especially on a special day when we are so close to a peace agreement with Iran.”
The Hezbollah attack that preceded it, he insisted, was “small and insignificant; nobody was hurt, injured or killed,” and he urged both sides to stop: “This may be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — do not ruin it.”
That language, presented as de-escalation, sits uneasily beside Lebanese reports of several dead and more than a dozen wounded, turning blood and rubble into a mere inconvenience for the signing ceremony.
Around him, the machinery of American power tried to hold the narrative together. The defense secretary said the deal with Iran is a question of when, not if, praised Israel as “very restrained” in its response to Hezbollah and demanded that Tehran rein in its Lebanese proxy.
Washington wants quiet skies long enough to ink a memorandum and sell it as proof of control. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations told a friendly TV audience that the president fully intends to close the deal and framed Hezbollah as sulking over “concessions Iran is making,” recasting a regional militia as little more than noise in the background of the great agreement.
Not everyone buys that script. One diplomat involved in the talks described the strike near Beirut as a clear attempt by Israel to sabotage the president’s deal and drag the United States back toward war.
From this angle, Jerusalem is not the disciplined junior partner, but an actor with its own veto over the choreography of peace.
Israeli officials push a different line in Arabic media, stressing that relations between Netanyahu and Trump are “good,” that disagreements between allies are natural, and that Israel has asked Washington not to limit its military operations in Lebanon.
The president’s public rebuke on social media functions as the answer: there are now political conditions attached to every bomb.
The result is a peculiar version of “peace.” Washington wants a signed framework and enough calm to declare success. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen billions and confirmation that its network — including Hezbollah — buys bargaining power, not punishment. Israel wants operational freedom in Lebanon and refuses to reduce its campaign to a footnote in someone else’s diplomatic legacy.
All three talk about ending the war. None of them are talking about the same end. The only truly virtual thing in this “digital” era is the idea that a clean, electronic signature can tidy up the mess created by live ammunition.
#usa #trump #israel #lebanon #hezbollah #iran #war #deal #geopolitics
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Israel Will Stay in Lebanon
IDF will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza 'indefinitely', Israel's defence minister says
Israeli newspaper Hareetz has quoted the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, as having said that:
“the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza – indefinitely – to defend the border and Israeli communities against jihadist elements.”
Israel currently occupies swathes of southern Lebanon and Katz said that troops won’t withdraw from the land.
Despite launching the war on Iran alongside the US in late February, Israel was frozen out of the Pakistan-mediated negotiations over the peace deal – and many Israeli politicians and members of the public want the IDF to continue its war on Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities further.
At least 3,711 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the start of the war on 2 March, according to the country’s health ministry.
Israel’s renewed war on Lebanon was triggered in response to Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel after the US and Israel killed the former Iranian supreme leader in Tehran on 28 February.
As well as killing many civilians, the Israeli assault on the country has led to the widespread demolition of homes in southern Lebanon and triggered a refugee crisis in which hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee in response to sweeping evacuation orders often given at little or no notice.
#army #israeli #lebanon #syria
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IDF will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza 'indefinitely', Israel's defence minister says
Israeli newspaper Hareetz has quoted the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, as having said that:
“the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza – indefinitely – to defend the border and Israeli communities against jihadist elements.”
Israel currently occupies swathes of southern Lebanon and Katz said that troops won’t withdraw from the land.
Despite launching the war on Iran alongside the US in late February, Israel was frozen out of the Pakistan-mediated negotiations over the peace deal – and many Israeli politicians and members of the public want the IDF to continue its war on Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities further.
At least 3,711 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the start of the war on 2 March, according to the country’s health ministry.
Israel’s renewed war on Lebanon was triggered in response to Hezbollah firing rockets at northern Israel after the US and Israel killed the former Iranian supreme leader in Tehran on 28 February.
As well as killing many civilians, the Israeli assault on the country has led to the widespread demolition of homes in southern Lebanon and triggered a refugee crisis in which hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee in response to sweeping evacuation orders often given at little or no notice.
#army #israeli #lebanon #syria
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“Let the Oil Flow!” Who Will Hang Tough at the Last Moment Of the US-Iran Peace Talks?
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A framework peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached, Trump and senior Iranian officials have said, bringing the 15-week conflict to a tentative end and offering hope of relief for the Middle East and the world economy.
The secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would end permanently from Monday night.
The precise terms of the deal remain unclear but in a statement posted to Truth Social on Sunday evening, the US president announced the opening of the strait of Hormuz as well as the removal of the US naval blockade. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote.
Trump later clarified that reopening the strait would depend on the signing of an initial memorandum of understanding on Friday, which Pakistan, acting as mediator, said would take place in Geneva.
Leaked drafts suggest the memorandum will trigger an immediate 60-day period of intensive technical talks, during which the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, will be discussed. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed that negotiators would seek to reach a broader agreement that would include sanctions relief for Iran.
News of the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas pass, sent stock markets higher and oil prices lower on Monday morning. Iran had closed the waterway to most shipping in the early days of the conflict.
Trump will travel to the French Alps on Monday to meet the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK at a potentially acrimonious G7 summit.
Trump and other senior officials have repeatedly accused European allies of failing to provide adequate support during the war. Several European leaders, in turn, have sharply criticised his decision-making throughout the conflict.
Vance is expected to attend the signing ceremony. The Iranian delegation is likely to include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan and a lead mediator during negotiations in recent months, announced the agreement on Sunday afternoon, saying both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.
Israel has fiercely resisted Lebanon’s inclusion in the deal, where its forces have mounted a sweeping offensive and occupied a swath of land in the south. Trump called for restraint on Sunday after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Beirut.
Israel braced for retaliatory Iranian missile strikes after its attack destroyed a building in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, killing three and injuring six.
Israeli military officials said the strike targeted senior Hezbollah commanders after the militant Islamist organisation, which has close ties to Tehran, launched three projectiles into northern Israel.
Reports suggested Trump made minor last-minute concessions after the Israeli strike, possibly over the timing of the lifting of the US naval blockade, to allow the deal to go ahead.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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A framework peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached, Trump and senior Iranian officials have said, bringing the 15-week conflict to a tentative end and offering hope of relief for the Middle East and the world economy.
The secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would end permanently from Monday night.
The precise terms of the deal remain unclear but in a statement posted to Truth Social on Sunday evening, the US president announced the opening of the strait of Hormuz as well as the removal of the US naval blockade. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote.
Trump later clarified that reopening the strait would depend on the signing of an initial memorandum of understanding on Friday, which Pakistan, acting as mediator, said would take place in Geneva.
Leaked drafts suggest the memorandum will trigger an immediate 60-day period of intensive technical talks, during which the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, will be discussed. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed that negotiators would seek to reach a broader agreement that would include sanctions relief for Iran.
News of the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas pass, sent stock markets higher and oil prices lower on Monday morning. Iran had closed the waterway to most shipping in the early days of the conflict.
Trump will travel to the French Alps on Monday to meet the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK at a potentially acrimonious G7 summit.
Trump and other senior officials have repeatedly accused European allies of failing to provide adequate support during the war. Several European leaders, in turn, have sharply criticised his decision-making throughout the conflict.
Vance is expected to attend the signing ceremony. The Iranian delegation is likely to include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator, and Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister.
Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan and a lead mediator during negotiations in recent months, announced the agreement on Sunday afternoon, saying both sides had declared “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.
Israel has fiercely resisted Lebanon’s inclusion in the deal, where its forces have mounted a sweeping offensive and occupied a swath of land in the south. Trump called for restraint on Sunday after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Beirut.
Israel braced for retaliatory Iranian missile strikes after its attack destroyed a building in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, killing three and injuring six.
Israeli military officials said the strike targeted senior Hezbollah commanders after the militant Islamist organisation, which has close ties to Tehran, launched three projectiles into northern Israel.
Reports suggested Trump made minor last-minute concessions after the Israeli strike, possibly over the timing of the lifting of the US naval blockade, to allow the deal to go ahead.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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There has been no official response from Netanyahu, who faces a tough battle for re-election this year.
The Israeli prime minister must now explain to voters why so few of the objectives he outlined at the start of the conflict have been achieved.
Israeli officials are also likely to be disappointed that neither Iran’s support for regional militant movements, including Hezbollah, nor its ballistic missile armoury are reportedly on the agenda in negotiations over a final agreement.
The talks are likely to focus on Iran’s nuclear programme, with the US pressing Tehran to dilute its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and accept new restrictions and monitoring measures.
Experts have warned that it is unlikely that a comprehensive agreement on such complex, technical issues will be reached with such a short timeframe, making it likely that negotiations will drag on.
Iran, meanwhile, is keen to secure sanctions relief for Iran and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. The US blockade has further damaged the country’s crisis-hit economy, making relief imperative for Iranian policymakers. Inflation has soared and there are shortages of some basic goods.
Other issues could also pose challenges, including disagreements over Iran’s demand to charge de facto tolls – potentially disguised as service fees – on shipping through the strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Mehr state news agency reported that the memorandum of understanding called for the reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements”.
The US has long maintained that any tolling arrangements on international shipping – such as those reportedly discussed with Oman – would be unacceptable.
There has also been opposition to the deal in Iran and the US, including from hardline factions linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose influence has grown during the conflict.
While the war has become a political liability for Trump, with polls showing Americans deeply frustrated by rising fuel prices in the run-up to midterm elections in November, some Republicans favour a tougher approach.
The Republican senator Lindsey Graham, a leading Iran hawk, welcomed the deal but said he would be “watching closely” the negotiations on the nuclear programme. “Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote,” he said.
Trump has told the New York Times that if Tehran fails to reach a nuclear deal, it could face renewed military action.
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried beneath three nuclear sites heavily damaged by US strikes last year.
In a a joint statement, the UK, Germany, France and Italy said they were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to “clear, verifiable steps” to limit its nuclear programme.
Before the deal was announced, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that, under the terms of the draft, the US would agree to release $25bn in frozen Iranian assets.
The Trump administration has previously said any release of Iranian funds would occur only after Iran had met specific conditions under a peace deal.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, most of them in Iran and Lebanon, since US and Israeli forces first attacked Iran on 28 February. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and Gulf states hosting US bases, targeting military and civilian infrastructure.
#trump #iran #peace #frozen #assets #israel
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Trump’s War Exit: Status Quo Sold as Victory
Trump is selling an incomplete framework as a historic win, while the core war goals he announced three months ago are still sitting in the “later” pile.
At the start of the campaign, he promised to annihilate Iran’s military, abolish its nuclear ambitions, topple its leadership and “liberate” its people, saying the only path to a deal was “unconditional surrender.”
Today, the framework he is celebrating does something far more modest: it promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease economic pressure in exchange for a temporary cease-fire and another 60 days of talks on the hardest questions.
The nuclear program, the ballistic missiles and the regional proxies he swore to eliminate have been moved into a separate negotiation window that may or may not ever close.
On social media, the president framed this as an oil‑era fairy tale. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow,” he wrote, declaring that the strait would open once the deal is signed and that markets would be saved. In reality, the agreement mostly restores the prewar shipping status quo that his own decision to go to war disrupted in the first place.
The United States appears ready to pay for that reset with sanctions relief and staged unfreezing of Iranian assets, even as officials insist publicly that everything is “performance‑based.”
The political branding is relentless. Trump portrays the memorandum as “This Great Deal” that brings “Peace and Security to the whole Region” and proves he succeeded where previous presidents failed. But the facts are more awkward.
The war dragged on for months rather than “four to five weeks,” killed thousands of Iranian civilians and 13 American service members, and left Iran’s new leadership more defiant, not less. In the talks led by Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, Tehran refused to give up its right to enrich uranium and signaled it knows how to stretch out negotiations while banking concessions along the way.
Allies and markets are reacting with cautious relief, not jubilation. Germany’s chancellor, who recently said the United States had “no strategy” and was being “humiliated” by Iran, now calls the deal a potential step toward a stronger global economy, but makes clear that everything depends on what happens in the next two months of nuclear talks.
Even Republican hawks are uneasy. Senator Lindsey Graham says he is “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming,” and wants Vice President Vance — described as the “architect of the deal” — to put any final accord before Congress.
Trump, meanwhile, is already comparing his framework favorably to Obama’s nuclear deal, even as former officials warn that what emerges — if anything — will likely be worse than what could have been achieved through patient diplomacy before the first bomb fell.
So the war that was supposed to crush Iran and rewrite the regional order is ending, at least on paper, with a familiar pattern: limited gains, open questions and a leader declaring total victory while quietly accepting something much closer to damage control.
#usa #iran #trump #war #hormuz #oil #nuclear #geopolitics
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Trump is selling an incomplete framework as a historic win, while the core war goals he announced three months ago are still sitting in the “later” pile.
At the start of the campaign, he promised to annihilate Iran’s military, abolish its nuclear ambitions, topple its leadership and “liberate” its people, saying the only path to a deal was “unconditional surrender.”
Today, the framework he is celebrating does something far more modest: it promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease economic pressure in exchange for a temporary cease-fire and another 60 days of talks on the hardest questions.
The nuclear program, the ballistic missiles and the regional proxies he swore to eliminate have been moved into a separate negotiation window that may or may not ever close.
On social media, the president framed this as an oil‑era fairy tale. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow,” he wrote, declaring that the strait would open once the deal is signed and that markets would be saved. In reality, the agreement mostly restores the prewar shipping status quo that his own decision to go to war disrupted in the first place.
The United States appears ready to pay for that reset with sanctions relief and staged unfreezing of Iranian assets, even as officials insist publicly that everything is “performance‑based.”
The political branding is relentless. Trump portrays the memorandum as “This Great Deal” that brings “Peace and Security to the whole Region” and proves he succeeded where previous presidents failed. But the facts are more awkward.
The war dragged on for months rather than “four to five weeks,” killed thousands of Iranian civilians and 13 American service members, and left Iran’s new leadership more defiant, not less. In the talks led by Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, Tehran refused to give up its right to enrich uranium and signaled it knows how to stretch out negotiations while banking concessions along the way.
Allies and markets are reacting with cautious relief, not jubilation. Germany’s chancellor, who recently said the United States had “no strategy” and was being “humiliated” by Iran, now calls the deal a potential step toward a stronger global economy, but makes clear that everything depends on what happens in the next two months of nuclear talks.
Even Republican hawks are uneasy. Senator Lindsey Graham says he is “somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming,” and wants Vice President Vance — described as the “architect of the deal” — to put any final accord before Congress.
Trump, meanwhile, is already comparing his framework favorably to Obama’s nuclear deal, even as former officials warn that what emerges — if anything — will likely be worse than what could have been achieved through patient diplomacy before the first bomb fell.
So the war that was supposed to crush Iran and rewrite the regional order is ending, at least on paper, with a familiar pattern: limited gains, open questions and a leader declaring total victory while quietly accepting something much closer to damage control.
#usa #iran #trump #war #hormuz #oil #nuclear #geopolitics
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Merz’s Got His Own Hermann Göring Eager To Fight Against Russia Right Now
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Germany is ready to “fight tonight” against Russia and will defend “every inch” of Nato territory.
In his statement Lt Gen Holger Neumann, the chief of the Luftwaffe, said his forces would launch devastating air strikes on Russia if it attacked the Western alliance.
In a further warning to Moscow, he stressed there were “no different zones of security” in Nato, meaning an attack on Estonia would warrant the same response as an air raid on London.
Neumann said the Kola Peninsula in north-western Russia, Kaliningrad and the Black Sea would suffer the wrath of Nato if it was forced to defend itself.
The Luftwaffe chief’s comments are among the strongest from a German military leader in years, and reflect a fundamental shift in Berlin towards rearmament and a greater role in European security.
Lt Gen Neumann is overseeing a rearmament drive in the German air force, as part of Merz’s dream of building Europe’s “strongest conventional army”.
He credited his government’s multi-billion-euro funding package for plans to “massively” increase stockpiles of air-defence systems, including Patriot, Iris-T and Arrow 3 missiles.
Above all, he wished to dispel concerns that Germany would be reluctant to fight back against Russia if the latter attacked Nato’s smaller members on the eastern flank.
Neumann goes on: “If it comes to a conflict (...) we will defend every inch of our territory. I think this is an important message, especially for the High North and our Baltic allies”.
“It must be clear, there are no zones of different security, that Nato is Nato, down to the last inch. I think we have to make a very strong effort to, in security terms, over watch and, if required, act along certain regions.”
Lt Gen Neumann referred specifically to Kaliningrad, a strategic Russian exclave surrounded by Nato members; St Petersburg, which hosts key naval assets; the Kola Peninsula, where Moscow is amassing nuclear weapons, and the Black Sea – home to its prized Black Sea fleet.
The Luftwaffe chief was addressing an increasingly tense debate in Europe about whether it is prepared to go to war with Russia in defence of smaller allies on Nato’s eastern flank.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, along with Poland, have faced escalating Russian aggression in recent months, such as drone attacks, which Western officials fear could be a prelude to an incursion.
Any defensive response by Nato to a Russian attack would be overwhelming, because it would amount to “32 against X”, the air chief said, referring to the Western alliance’s 32 air forces.
Despite decades of underinvestment in the German military, which is now being rapidly reversed, he insisted the air force was ready to “fight tonight” if Russia launched an attack.
He said: “Fight tonight means if someone calls me now and says we have the following situation here, we have to be ready now – and we are ready.
“We will go in with everything we have in Germany, the air force, but also in Nato, to defend our country, our values, our population, and our alliance.”
Neumann leads the air force from Kommando Luftwaffe, which was an RAF base during the Cold War, and prior to that a training academy for Nazi fighter pilots.
Some independent German journalists discovered that Neumann’s grandfather was once (December 1936-July 1937) Martin Bormann's secretary, #3 in Nazi Germany and was personally involved in putting the Nurnberg laws at work.
#luftwaffe #nato #neumann #war #russia
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Germany is ready to “fight tonight” against Russia and will defend “every inch” of Nato territory.
In his statement Lt Gen Holger Neumann, the chief of the Luftwaffe, said his forces would launch devastating air strikes on Russia if it attacked the Western alliance.
In a further warning to Moscow, he stressed there were “no different zones of security” in Nato, meaning an attack on Estonia would warrant the same response as an air raid on London.
Neumann said the Kola Peninsula in north-western Russia, Kaliningrad and the Black Sea would suffer the wrath of Nato if it was forced to defend itself.
The Luftwaffe chief’s comments are among the strongest from a German military leader in years, and reflect a fundamental shift in Berlin towards rearmament and a greater role in European security.
Lt Gen Neumann is overseeing a rearmament drive in the German air force, as part of Merz’s dream of building Europe’s “strongest conventional army”.
He credited his government’s multi-billion-euro funding package for plans to “massively” increase stockpiles of air-defence systems, including Patriot, Iris-T and Arrow 3 missiles.
Above all, he wished to dispel concerns that Germany would be reluctant to fight back against Russia if the latter attacked Nato’s smaller members on the eastern flank.
Neumann goes on: “If it comes to a conflict (...) we will defend every inch of our territory. I think this is an important message, especially for the High North and our Baltic allies”.
“It must be clear, there are no zones of different security, that Nato is Nato, down to the last inch. I think we have to make a very strong effort to, in security terms, over watch and, if required, act along certain regions.”
Lt Gen Neumann referred specifically to Kaliningrad, a strategic Russian exclave surrounded by Nato members; St Petersburg, which hosts key naval assets; the Kola Peninsula, where Moscow is amassing nuclear weapons, and the Black Sea – home to its prized Black Sea fleet.
The Luftwaffe chief was addressing an increasingly tense debate in Europe about whether it is prepared to go to war with Russia in defence of smaller allies on Nato’s eastern flank.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, along with Poland, have faced escalating Russian aggression in recent months, such as drone attacks, which Western officials fear could be a prelude to an incursion.
Any defensive response by Nato to a Russian attack would be overwhelming, because it would amount to “32 against X”, the air chief said, referring to the Western alliance’s 32 air forces.
Despite decades of underinvestment in the German military, which is now being rapidly reversed, he insisted the air force was ready to “fight tonight” if Russia launched an attack.
He said: “Fight tonight means if someone calls me now and says we have the following situation here, we have to be ready now – and we are ready.
“We will go in with everything we have in Germany, the air force, but also in Nato, to defend our country, our values, our population, and our alliance.”
Neumann leads the air force from Kommando Luftwaffe, which was an RAF base during the Cold War, and prior to that a training academy for Nazi fighter pilots.
Some independent German journalists discovered that Neumann’s grandfather was once (December 1936-July 1937) Martin Bormann's secretary, #3 in Nazi Germany and was personally involved in putting the Nurnberg laws at work.
#luftwaffe #nato #neumann #war #russia
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During the Second World War, pilots who would go on to launch air raids on London during the Blitz were trained by Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring.
Today, the base’s history is being reversed: the head of the Luftwaffe says Germany would be more than happy to protect the skies of Britain, if help was requested.
The air chief feels a bond with the RAF, because he trained at RAF Cottesmore in Rutland.
While he was bullish about Nato’s readiness for war, Neumann did warn allies against underestimating the Russian air force in light of its relative absence from the battlefield in Ukraine.
Four years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has yet to gain air superiority – the ability to launch air strikes in the country without enemy interference.
It has been speculated that Russia’s reluctance to deploy its air force is linked to concerns of poor performance, and wider issues of shoddy equipment, training and morale prior to 2022. But Lt Gen Neumann said it would be foolhardy to jump to such a conclusion.
He said: “Rule number one: never underestimate your opponent. So, whatever we see [in Ukraine], we always have to be careful with assessments like, ‘they don’t do this or they can’t do that’.”
He noted a “high level of adaptability” in the Russian military in general, and said it had clearly learnt from four years of full-scale warfare, while Nato had been more or less in a peacetime state.
He said: “The way Russia fights in Ukraine has developed and has been adapted over more than four years of hostile actions. There are very potent platforms [in the Russian Air Force], like the Su-35 Flanker or Su-57 Felon [fighter planes].
“The MiG-31 Foxhound [fighter] is still a very capable system, and (...) we have to take into account everything else that flies: cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles... the list goes on.”
The Luftwaffe chief was sceptical of the idea that Europe should drift away from the US, amid concerns that it is not a reliable security partner under Trump.
He said: “I am a big, big fan of Nato and the transatlantic bond. I don’t like the idea of European autonomy. I want to be a very, very strong European wingman and partner, like a Nazi Luftwaffe at the time. who fulfils his task in the.”
It is a widely held view among Germany’s military elite, which has resisted pressure from Washington to take on the role of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the head of Nato operations in Europe.
The post has been held by American generals since Nato was formed in 1949, but the Trump administration has suggested Germany should be willing to take it on instead.
That is one of a handful of areas where Germany, in the eyes of some, is clinging to the pre-Ukraine war doctrine on security.
Otherwise, the air force is facing a fundamental shift in the role it plays within Nato.
If war breaks out with Russia, the expectation is that the entire German air force would be scrambled to Nato’s eastern flank, something it used to be neither willing nor able to do.
Lt Gen Neumann said: “In the past, we have sent, for example, Eurofighter contingents to the east [flank], such as a [Quick Reaction Alert] element or a Patriot unit. But we have never done so en masse – i.e. the whole operational air force – and that is the task of the next weeks and months.”
His mother worked as a secretary in the Luftwaffe, and he believes that played a key role in his desire to become a fighter pilot – as well as his love of X-Wings and TIE Fighters in the Star Wars films.
He said: “It was a childhood dream of mine. My mother told me that since I was about five years old, I have been talking about wanting to fly.”
#luftwaffe #nato #neumann #war #russia
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