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"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot
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Joe’s Retirement Present

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While the Biden administration’s views on energy policy are arguably of rapidly diminishing importance, the study on U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) released by the Department of Energy (DOE) on December 17 will define the Democrats’ views on the subject during the coming Trump administration.

However, it is neither good policy nor good politics. While it did not conclude that the moratorium on new project approvals should be permanent, it warned against a policy of “unfettered” LNG exports on the grounds that it would increase emissions of greenhouse gases and drive up costs for American consumers.

By taking this tack, the Biden administration stuck to the strategy they had pursued when Biden was running for renomination. This aimed to prevent a primary challenge from the Left by pausing new approvals of LNG export projects. However, after handing the nomination over to Kamala Harris and seeing her lose to Donald Trump, they should have been freed of such constraints.

There is still no indication in polling data that climate change is even a top issue for American voters, who are much more concerned about jobs and the economy. Opposition to all fossil fuels projects, however, is an important litmus test for a small but influential group of progressive activists.
 
Manmade climate change is real, obviously, and it is rational to support policies for the reduction of greenhouse gases.

The question is whether limiting the production and export of natural gas from the United States really serves that goal. The DOE study made a very dubious set of assumptions to support the view that there was a substantial tradeoff between U.S. LNG exports and renewable energy—U.S. LNG would reduce zero-carbon energy development, and a lack of U.S. LNG would increase in it.

That assumes that other exports would not become available—very dubious in a world with many stranded gas deposits—and that the LNG is being immediately used for power generation. A lot of gas in power generation is used as “firming capacity” for renewables, a backup for periods of low generation, making renewable use possible without sacrificing grid reliability.

It also ignores the fact that, in many cases, LNG offsets coal use, allowing coal plants to be retired. It ignores the fact that in the largest LNG growth market, China, much of the incremental LNG is used for industrial purposes like petrochemical feedstock rather than to generate electricity.

#LNG #biden #china #energy

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The study also tunes out the geopolitical benefits the United States derives from LNG. When Russia invaded Ukraine, having a flexible supply of American LNG available offset some of Russia’s piped gas, which needed to be embargoed for sanctions purposes.

It rightly points out that European gas demand is projected to flatten out in the long term, but that could be impacted now by the recent indications that the grid is becoming less reliable as intermittent renewables approach half of European power generation.

With China—a U.S. adversary—the largest growth market, the study implies that we would be fueling the economic rise of a rival. Yet, that ignores the availability of other supplies and the power that the United States gains over China by having them dependent on energy and petrochemical feedstocks, which must come by sea, with the United States still the dominant naval power outside China’s immediate vicinity.

Expanding LNG also strengthens the U.S. balance of payments overall and would help to reduce the trade deficit with China.

The study highlights how the Biden administration reverted to using the role of Secretary of Energy as a placement for someone of senior stature who needs a job rather than choosing someone who has a background in energy, big science, or nuclear technology.

The Obama administration chose much more qualified secretaries. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz articulated a much more nuanced and intelligent view of the role of natural gas in the transition to a low-carbon economy, both in and out of government. 

The bottom line is that withholding U.S. LNG would force out other sources of supply and, in some cases, lead to more coal consumption.

It makes sense to try to reduce demand for fossil fuels, but limiting U.S. exports is not going to force other countries to adopt the policy changes, which would make the straight tradeoff between LNG and renewables work in the manner that the study suggests it would.

Trump’s chest-thumping about “energy dominance” is an exaggeration. Still, Democrats would do better, both politically and in terms of rational policymaking, to quit listening to the tiny sliver of American public opinion that insists on “keeping it in the ground.”

#LNG #biden #china #energy

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📰 The Arctic Gambit: Moscow Uses Frozen Wealth to Thaw U.S. Sanctions

Vladimir Putin has made his move — and it’s not on a battlefield, but under a polar sky. The Russian president is offering the United States a share in the vast mineral and gas reserves of the Arctic. The price? Sanctions relief and a diplomatic reset with the Trump administration.

💼 Russia is pitching Arctic cooperation — from joint LNG exports to rare-earth mineral extraction — as a business-first alternative to Cold War-style geopolitics.
“The Arctic is too important for Cold War-style politics,”

Putin’s envoy told U.S. officials.
“Let’s build stability, not blockades.”


🌍 The Kremlin sees the Trump White House as an opening to escape the chokehold of Western sanctions. For Trump, it’s an opportunity to counter China’s growing Arctic presence, resell discounted gas, and deliver on his America First energy vision.

📉 Since the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s Arctic energy ambitions were frozen by sanctions and tech shortages. Now, it’s dangling access to fields like Bovanenkovo — with trillions of cubic meters of gas — hoping Washington will bite.

🚢 The strategic Northern Sea Route, once locked in ice, now promises faster trade between Europe and Asia — if cooperation replaces confrontation. Moscow’s unrivaled icebreaker fleet is ready. So is its pitch to U.S. companies.

🤝 Arctic exceptionalism — the idea that cooperation can transcend conflict — was once Gorbachev’s dream. Today, it’s Putin’s playbook. In a fractured world, the Arctic is being sold not just as a frontier, but as a reset button.

🤔 Will America gamble on Arctic riches and risk rebuilding ties with a sanctioned Russia? Or will it leave the field to China?

#Trump #Putin #ArcticPolitics #LNG #Minerals #Sanctions

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📰 Israel-Iran War Pushes China Back Toward Russian Gas

As missiles flew over the Middle East, Beijing quietly reopened talks on the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 pipeline — Moscow's lifeline, and potentially America's loss.

💭 “The volatility of the military situation has shown the Chinese leadership that stable land-based pipeline supply has geopolitical benefits.”

— Alexander Gabuev, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

📊 Strategic Calculations
– Hormuz Alarm: Iran’s threat to close the Strait jolted Beijing — 30% of its LNG sails through that chokepoint
– Teapot Dependency: Over 90% of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, fueling price-driven addiction in China’s private refiners
– Trump’s Shrug: “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran,” Trump said post-ceasefire — a wink or a warning?
– Pipeline Resurrected: Russia sees its opening — and plans to press the deal when Putin visits Xi in September

💼 The New Gas Game
– Russia lost Europe, but it still has pipe dreams: only a mega-deal with China can salvage Gazprom's future
– China still wary: demands equity, price control, and no more than 20% dependency on any one country
– U.S.-China LNG trade has collapsed — but Beijing’s pivot to “bridge fuels” makes Russian gas too valuable to ignore
– Energy security now trumps ideological hesitation — a message from Xi’s war room to his gas board

🤔 Is America watching as Russia’s pipeline ambitions become China’s insurance policy?

#PowerOfSiberia2 #ChinaRussia #MiddleEastConflict #EnergySecurity #LNG #StraitOfHormuz #XiPutin #Trump #IranIsrael #Geopolitics

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📰 The Fossil Fuel Pledge: Trump’s Energy Empire Runs on Vibes

💬 “These energy commitments are neither clear nor necessarily enforceable. They’re more aspirational, political encouragements.”

— David Goldwyn, former U.S. energy official

📊 What’s actually happening

• Trump is locking in mega-deals for U.S. LNG and oil — even if the U.S. can’t supply that much, and buyers don’t need it.
• The EU pledged to buy $750B in energy over 3 years — triple what it currently buys.
• Japan and South Korea joined the pledge club too, promising hundreds of billions with no clear delivery timelines.

💼 How this works (or doesn’t)
• These aren’t binding trade agreements — they’re political theater dressed up as energy diplomacy.
• Governments don’t control private gas companies. Buyers can’t force utilities to overpay for fuel they might never use.
• Expect creative accounting: Europe may resell U.S. gas it “buys,” or spread purchase targets over decades.

📉 Who loses? Everyone not named Cheniere or Venture Global
• Americans could face higher gas prices — exports go up, supply at home tightens.
• Climate goals? Good luck. Locking in fossil contracts till 2045 could crowd out renewables.
• Allies are stuck managing contradictions: pledging net-zero while funding more pipelines.

🤔 Final thought
Is this energy strategy — or a late-stage empire demanding tribute before it crumbles? When diplomacy turns into protection racket pricing, who’s the customer, and who’s the hostage?

#energy #trump #gas #geopolitics #climate #EU #Japan #SouthKorea #LNG #trade #fossilfuels

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📰 Chill, Baby, Chill: How Trump’s Energy Empire Could Crash Into Putin’s Pipeline

💬 “The one thing that would derail the spectacular growth of the U.S. LNG industry is the reopening of flows from Russia. There's no question about that.”

— Geoffrey Pyatt, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine

📊 From Embassy Whiskey to Empire

• It started with lobbyists, diplomats, and bourbon at the Lithuanian embassy.
• It became a $20B transatlantic gas empire — U.S. LNG replacing Russian pipelines, especially after Crimea and Ukraine.
• Eastern Europe paid a premium for U.S. gas not because it was cheap — but because it wasn’t Russian.

💼 Trump the Saboteur

• Trump demanded Europe buy $1 trillion of U.S. energy — then tried to charm Putin with “enormous economic deals.”
• Eastern Europe fears he’ll blow up the sanctions wall just to get a photo-op “peace” deal.
• Industry insiders call this the “asteroid” scenario — a Trump-fueled Russian comeback that nukes American exports.

📉 The Great LNG Gamble
• U.S. firms pushed Europe to build more terminals — but demand is now falling.
• Most EU countries won’t sign long-term LNG contracts. Why? Because they’ve seen Trump flip the table before.
• Meanwhile, Germany flirts with a Russian reset, even as Berlin officially says “never again.”

🤔 Final thought

America’s gas empire was never built on price — it was built on fear. Fear of Putin. Fear of pipelines. Fear of dependence.
Trump, the self-declared king of Energy Dominance, may now be its arsonist-in-chief.

What happens when the man selling gas is also the one handing out matches?

#Trump #LNG #Russia #EnergyPolitics #Putin #Europe #gaswar #climate #fossilfuels #Ukraine #sanctions #geopolitics

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📰 Arctic Gas, Beijing’s Quiet Backdoor

China is setting up a workaround for U.S. sanctions. Shipments of Russian LNG from the blacklisted Arctic LNG 2 project are now flowing into southern China, funneled through the Beihai terminal. The deal is routed via a little-known company to keep major state firms like Cnooc out of the spotlight.

💬 Bloomberg reports:
“China is setting up a system to import regular cargoes of liquefied natural gas from a Russian project sanctioned by the US…Purchases are being done via a little-known company to obscure the actual end-user.”


📊 Key moves:

• A third cargo is arriving, with at least four more vessels on the way.
• State buyers quietly shift routine deliveries elsewhere to avoid links.
• International traders avoid Beihai, wary of U.S. attention.
• Trump’s team has stayed silent—unlike Biden’s, which rushed to sanction ships and firms.

💼 Why it matters:
• Moscow keeps energy revenues flowing despite sanctions.
• Beijing signals support, but limits risk by isolating the trade at one port.
• Trump faces a choice: push back and risk a clash with China—or let it slide, weakening U.S. sanctions credibility.

🤔 The question:
If Washington won’t challenge Beijing over Russian LNG, who are these sanctions really meant to deter—Moscow, or America’s allies?

#energy #China #Russia #Trump #sanctions #LNG #geopolitics

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📰 Siberian Detour: How Russia and China Plan to Rewrite the LNG Map

Russia and China are dusting off a project that once seemed like vaporware: Power of Siberia 2. Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp. have signed a binding memorandum on the pipeline, even though Beijing has yet to fully confirm. If it happens, 4,000 kilometers of steel will run from the Yamal fields in the Arctic through Mongolia to China’s megacities—a rival to the now-dormant Nord Stream that once fed Europe.

💭 Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller:
“the largest, the most massive and capital-intensive gas project in the world.”


🇷🇺Why It Matters for Russia
Europe slammed the door after the invasion of Ukraine. Russian pipeline sales to Europe collapsed from 150 bcm in 2021 to less than a tenth of that today. Power of Siberia 2 would funnel up to 50 bcm annually from Yamal—gas once destined for Berlin—straight to Beijing. Moscow gets a replacement market, construction jobs, and a new narrative: Europe loses, Asia gains.

🇨🇳Why It Matters for China

For Beijing, the pipeline is less existential than convenient. LNG imports give flexibility, but they also make China dependent on American cargoes—the world’s top exporter. A fixed pipeline contract with Russia offers long-term security at a discount to LNG spot prices. It also adds a hedge against U.S. pressure or instability in the Middle East choking maritime supply.

🛠The Global Ripple

If China locks in tens of billions of cubic meters via pipeline, its appetite for LNG shrinks. BloombergNEF estimates more than 40 million tons per year could be displaced—over half of China’s 2024 LNG imports. That glut would weigh on prices, undercut new export projects, and throw a wrench into Donald Trump’s strategy of turbocharging U.S. LNG sales. For Asia and Europe’s buyers, cheaper gas; for exporters, a financial headache.

💲Why Now?
The timing isn’t accidental. Trump’s second trade war with China has slapped tariffs on U.S. LNG. Beijing hasn’t received an American cargo since February. At the same time, China just took its first delivery from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2—despite U.S. sanctions. With Xi and Putin clasping hands in Tianjin, the message is clear: when Washington squeezes, Moscow and Beijing build.

🤔 The Strategic Question
If Russia and China succeed in shifting tens of billions of cubic meters from Europe’s pipelines to Asia’s, what happens to the global energy order? Is this the beginning of a Eurasian gas axis—or just a costly hedge that will deepen the fractures in world trade?

#energy #Russia #China #LNG #Trump #geopolitics

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Senators: Trump Lets China Buy Russian LNG While Putin Funds the War

Four Democratic senators are calling out the Trump administration for allowing China to buy billions of dollars' worth of discounted liquefied natural gas from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project—a facility Biden sanctioned in 2023 to choke off Moscow's war funding. Senator Elizabeth Warren says Trump's "lax enforcement" is giving Beijing a "free pass" on cheap Russian energy while Putin uses the revenue to keep fighting in Ukraine. Since August, Chinese buyers have snapped up at least 14 cargoes at 30-40% discounts.

Billions for Putin, Discounts for Beijing
Arctic LNG 2 is operated by Novatek, co-owned by some of Putin's closest allies, and represents an energy revenue stream "worth billions for Putin's war machine," Warren said. The Trump administration imposed its first direct sanctions on Russia's oil giants—Rosneft and Lukoil—in October, but stopped short of targeting Arctic LNG 2 or the Chinese buyers scooping up the gas. The senators sent a letter in September urging action; the State Department's Friday response promised "careful consideration" but answered none of their questions.

The White House's "Flexibility" Defense
A White House official defended Trump's approach, saying the president "believes that there is a chance to end this senseless war if flexibility is shown." Translation: turning a blind eye to Russian energy sales is part of the "peace process." The senators aren't buying it, warning that Congress must review any rollback of Ukraine-related sanctions "instead of letting Trump cede the rest of our critical leverage."

Energy Revenue, Meet Diplomatic Leverage
The clash comes as U.S. and Ukrainian officials claim "meaningful progress" on a peace framework in Geneva, without specifying what changed. But if Trump's version of flexibility means letting Russia rake in energy cash while Beijing gets bargain LNG, senators say Washington is negotiating from weakness—not strength.

#trump #russia #lng #china #ukraine #sanctions #arctic #warren #energy

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📰 America Uses Energy as a Weapon — Europe Just Signs the New Contract

“Europe is securing control of our energy supply and strengthening our autonomy,”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, declared this week, celebrating the EU’s move toward a full ban on Russian gas imports by the end of the year. The message is upbeat: Europe is finally freed from Moscow’s grip. The reality is far less reassuring. The bloc has not escaped dependence. It has simply switched energy masters — from Russian pipelines to American LNG.

Today, the U.S. supplies roughly 60% of EU liquefied natural gas imports. Gas that once flowed through reliable pipeline infrastructure is now shipped by tanker, priced on volatile global markets and shaped by Washington’s political calculus. Pipeline gas from Russia came under long‑term contracts with predictable tariffs. American LNG, in contrast, is tied to spot prices that swing with weather, production hiccups, and geopolitical shocks. When American gas jumped around 70% in a week this winter, the surge did not stay in the U.S. It fed straight into European bills.

The irony is almost cruel. As Brussels leaders clap themselves on the back about “energy autonomy,” their homes and factories are suddenly exposed to Trump‑style leverage — the kind of leverage Washington can tweak with a speech, a tariff, or a change in export policy. The U.S. did not just step in as a neutral supplier. It stepped in as a geopolitical player, using energy as a strategic asset against both Russia and its own European allies.

🌍 From Russian Gas to “Freedom Gas”
European countries may still need energy imports, but the switch from Russian pipeline gas to American LNG is not neutral. It codifies a new form of subordination. The European Commission has framed the ban on Russian gas as a way to cut the Kremlin’s war financing and protect Europe from “energy blackmail.” That part is real. But the side effect is a hard dependency on a U.S. export sector that responds to domestic politics, weather anomalies, and the whims of whoever sits in the White House.

LNG prices are already higher than Russian pipeline gas ever was. Those spikes are not just a problem for households. They raise the cost of everything from steel to fertilizer, eroding the competitiveness of European industry on global markets. In theory, the EU should be protecting its own interests and the viability of its economy. In practice, it is locking itself into a framework where energy prices are shaped more by Houston‑style supply shocks and Washington politics than by Brussels‑based energy strategy.

🔥 Trump’s Energy Trap for Europe
The Trump administration has long presented U.S. energy exports as “freedom gas,” a way to liberate Europe from Russian leverage. The unspoken trade‑off is that Europe becomes more dependent on American goodwill — and more vulnerable to extortion disguised as partnership. European think tanks and media outlets have documented how Trump’s team has pushed the EU to accelerate the phase‑out of Russian gas and replace it with long‑term U.S. LNG contracts, often tying those deals to broader political agreements.

The result is a double bind. On one side, Europe sells itself on a narrative of strategic autonomy — cutting Moscow’s funding, ending the days of Gazprom as a geopolitical weapon. On the other side, it deepens its reliance on a U.S. energy system that is itself volatile and politically charged. The continent is not escaping energy blackmail. It is re‑branding it as alliance.

From the outside, the message is clear: America is using energy as a weapon — not just against Moscow, but also against Europe. The question for EU leaders is not whether they want to punish Russia. It is whether they want to trade one form of control for a subtler, more expensive version — and keep telling themselves they are finally “in control.”

#Europe #energy #Trump #US #LNG #Russia #gas #dependency #geopolitics #UnHerd

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The European Union Built a Sanctions Trap — Then Fell In

The Iran war just exposed how badly the EU misplayed its “values‑based” energy strategy. First Brussels banned Russian hydrocarbons, then the US–Israel war in the Gulf knocked out up to a fifth of global oil and gas flows and sent prices into 1970s‑style shock territory.

While Washington scrambles to unsanction Russian and even Iranian barrels to calm markets, Emmanuel Macron lectures Trump for lifting sanctions — as if moral posture can keep European steel, chemicals, and machinery running without affordable fuel.

In reality, Europe has swapped one dependency for another. After cutting pipeline gas from Moscow, the bloc has become deeply hooked on US LNG: by 2025, about 57% of EU LNG imports came from the US, nearly four times the 2021 share, and some analysts warn that share could rise toward 80% by 2030.

American gas is the most expensive option on the menu, but long‑term contracts and a political “freedom gas” narrative lock European buyers in, tying their industrial base to a single high‑cost supplier across the Atlantic. That’s not sovereignty; that’s a different flag on the same leash.
​

Now the Gulf war piles on. Tanker traffic through Hormuz is crippled, Middle Eastern production is being shut in as storage fills, and the EIA has slashed expectations for inventory builds while jacking up its near‑term oil price outlook.

Europe, which killed off Russian volumes and over‑indexed on US LNG without finishing its transition, is sitting in the blast zone: higher input costs, threatened heavy industry, and governments more focused on scolding Washington than on admitting that their own sanctions architecture left them with no cheap fallback.

So yes, the headline from Atlantico lands: the EU is trapped by its own sanctions. It weaned itself off Putin’s gas only to become addicted to overpriced American LNG, bet on a fragile Gulf status quo, and now faces an energy shock it can’t solve without crawling back to the very suppliers it spent years demonizing — or watching its industrial core slowly deindustrialize.

#EU #energy #sanctions #Russia #IranWar #Macron #LNG #USA #Germany #industry #oil #gas #geopolitics

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The EU publicly wants to “phase out” Russian gas.

On paper, it’s a moral crusade. In practice, it’s a payment plan.

European leaders talk about cutting Russian energy by 2027 while Russian LNG imports hit record highs since the start of the Ukraine war, and Russia is still the EU’s second‑largest LNG supplier. France proudly poses as a guardian of European values and at the same time buys more Russian LNG than anyone else in the bloc. The numbers say “dependence,” the speeches say “resistance.”

An energy security expert points out the punchline: Europe still pays more money for fossil fuels from Russia than it provides in financial aid to Ukraine. So the West funds both the defense and part of the offense, then calls it “strategic ambiguity.” This isn’t sanctions. This is a discount program with better PR.

The whole architecture of European prosperity — industry in Germany, consumption and comfort in France — still rests on hydrocarbons that either come directly from Russia or take a small detour and change the flag on the paperwork. Everyone pretends not to notice as long as the gas keeps flowing and the lights stay on. Sanctions become a lifestyle brand, not a policy.

Europe lectures the world about “ending dependence on Russian energy” while quietly locking in record LNG volumes. Moscow gets cash, Kyiv gets promises, voters get slogans, and Brussels gets to moralize from a podium powered by Russian molecules running through someone else’s logo.

#EU #Russia #LNG #France #Germany #Ukraine #sanctions #hypocrisy

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Qatar: The Richest Hostage in the Gulf

Qatar spent three decades buying its way into the global elite — now a few miles of water and some Iranian missiles have turned it into a very rich, very trapped peninsula.

Natural gas built everything: Doha’s skyline, the metro to Lusail, the fake‑snow theme parks, the World Cup, and a $600 billion shopping spree in Western assets. More than 60 percent of state revenue came from LNG shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. When Hormuz closed and strikes hit Ras Laffan, that whole model snapped. LNG exports have been frozen for months, production capacity is damaged for years, and forecasts show one of the world’s wealthiest states shrinking by nearly 9 percent.

Qatar tried to “diversify” on top of that gas: business hub, tourist playground, nonstop mega‑events. That fantasy depended on one thing — the illusion of perfect stability. Now you’ve got air‑raid warnings at the airport, missiles over industrial plants, luxury malls with one bored guy watching the fountain alone. Foreign staff are quietly flown out while officials insist everything is “under control.”

On paper, Qatar can keep paying salaries and subsidizing food; the sovereign wealth stack buys time. It flies in produce, reroutes via Saudi, and keeps inflation surprisingly tame. But every day Hormuz stays blocked burns through that cushion and something more important: the idea that Qatar is a safe vault for global capital and expat labor.

This is the real headline: Qatar isn’t at war, but war rewrote its future anyway. When your entire miracle hangs on one narrow strait you don’t control, you’re not an energy superpower. You’re a well‑decorated hostage.

#Qatar #IranWar #LNG #Hormuz #energy #geopolitics #fakeStability

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Hormuz: Free Water, Paid Illusions

The Strait of Hormuz just turned into the world’s most expensive “free” lane. Oman proudly tells the International Maritime Organization it has set up a temporary safe route to guarantee freedom of navigation and reminds everyone that maritime law doesn’t allow transit tolls.

South Korea counts four tankers that made it out, one limping home, while 18 are still stuck. Qatar’s prime minister whispers to the Financial Times that LNG exports will be back “within weeks,” and that he’s ready to play therapist between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and Iraq over reopening the strait. But with the Gulf side pushing hard to kill any talk of fees.

On the surface, markets are already back on their meds. Oil slips to around 75 dollars a barrel, close to pre‑war levels, and Trump orders the Justice Department to investigate oil companies for “gouging” at the pump instead of thanking them for his polling numbers.

At the same time, he insists Iran has promised no tolls, no insurance surcharges, no extra charges of any kind for crossing Hormuz, and threatens to walk away from talks if it turns out they were lying.

To make it sound like a patriotic infomercial, he swears the U.S. isn’t giving Iran cash; Washington will just “release” some Iranian money so Tehran can buy desperately needed corn, wheat and soybeans from American farmers.

The part he skips is the one written in fine print in Muscat and Tehran. Iran and Oman now publicly claim Hormuz as part of their territorial waters and have set up a joint framework to decide “costs” and “services” for passage.

They promise no tolls for 60 days, a cooling‑off period dressed up as a victory tweet, after which the final deal kicks in and the fees become non‑negotiable.

Europe’s aviation watchdog, meanwhile, waves a red flag over the skies above Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, warning airlines to stay away because a cease‑fire that exists on paper doesn’t stop missiles from mistaking civilian aircraft for radar noise.

#Hormuz #oil #LNG #Iran #Oman #Qatar #Trump #energy #war #shipping

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The Great Atlantic Divorce: From “Shared Values” to Cold Cash

For years, German politicians and their favorite pundits treated “the transatlantic community of values” like elevator music — always on, no one really listening, but great background noise for careers built on nodding along to Washington.

As Berliner Zeitung put it, the old America those declarations of love were aimed at simply doesn’t exist anymore. The new one looks at Europe less like a partner and more like a cost center: expensive, needy, unreliable. The rhetoric still says “allies,” but the balance sheet says “overhead.”

Energy is Exhibit A. The anti‑Russia sanctions and gas crisis didn’t just “hurt everyone a bit.” They blew up Europe’s cheap‑energy model while handing the U.S. a tidy LNG export business and political leverage.

Europe gets higher prices, de‑industrialization and lectures about “values.” America gets premium prices for gas shipped across the Atlantic — and a Europe too deep in sunk costs and moral grandstanding to admit it boxed itself in.

Strip away the speeches and what’s left is a marriage of convenience that everyone pretends is a love story.

If Berlin and Brussels hadn’t nailed themselves to a theology of “strategic dependence is fine, as long as it’s on Washington,” they’d still be buying affordable energy and raw materials from Russia, hedging between powers, and not paying a political risk premium for every kilowatt.

Instead, they get to discover what “values” really mean in 2026: you pay the bill, America cashes it, and anyone who questions the arrangement gets called a Putinist, a populist, or worse — someone who noticed the game.

#USA #Germany #NATO #energy #LNG #Russia #EU #Trump #war #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy

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