Trump :
“America opts for Crypto” To Be Greater Than Ever

⌨️⌨️⌨️⌨️⌨️

The ancients used oracles and inspected the entrails of animals to predict the future. Gen-Z has Polymarket, a crypto platform where (almost) anyone can bet on (almost) anything.

This turned out to be the way to choose the winning horse this election year, correctly calling Donald Trump's sweep – unlike most pollsters and experts — and making a star of the anonymous trader “Theo”, whose multiple bets brought in about $85 million focusing on indicators like the voting intentions of neighbors that went unnoticed by many pros.

However, with regulators in France and the United States intensifying the examination of the Polymarket — including a search of the Federal Bureau of Investigation which, according to the platform, was politically motivated—it is necessary to curb some of the enthusiasm for what some supporters of the prediction market consider a “new era” for the industry.

And maybe bet that if a future shock arrives for the world of opinion polls, it is more likely that it will come from artificial intelligence than from betting.

The idea behind prediction markets is simple’ bettors' money flows provide more valuable information than pollsters' surveys, with financial incentives rewarding the most accurate traders.

Like a spread bet in the financial markets, changing odds can work continuously and also be applied to almost anything, as shown by Polymarket's morbid range of bets, including whether or not a nuclear weapon will explode in 2024.

But there are limits, and not only because election betting is a legal gray area. The first is that these are bets, not polls – they need both closure and liquidity, which makes them quite narrow oracles for gauging public opinion.

Another is that the markets can be wrong, as can the polls. Two decades ago, George W Bush's victory over John Kerry also seemed to herald a new era for political betting, only for the double whammy of Trump and the 2016 Brexit to shatter it.

The inefficiencies of the market are, of course, there to be exploited by mythical traders with piercing eyes like Theo, but they could also reflect the biases inherent in the crypto markets (which bias young people and men) that diminish their usefulness.

There is also the risk of manipulation; financial incentives do not only attract truth seekers. Political scientist Dan Cassino gives the example of centuries-old bets on the papal elections in Rome, which led to his own scandals as the spread of gossip became lucrative; more recent examples include big bets on Mitt Romney in 2012 that made this year's election tighter than it was.

#Romney #Trump #America #GenZ

📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

⌨️⌨️⌨️⌨️⌨️

US regulators have warned of the risks to the integrity of the elections and in 2022 fined Polymarket for running an illegal derivatives market.

The ancients used oracles and inspected the entrails of animals to predict the future. Gen-Z has Polymarket, a crypto platform where (almost) anyone can bet on (almost) anything.

This turned out to be the way to choose the winning horse this election year, correctly calling Donald Trump's sweep – unlike most pollsters and experts — and making a star of the anonymous trader “Theo”, whose multiple bets brought in about $85 million focusing on indicators like the voting intentions of neighbors that went unnoticed by many pros.

However, with regulators in France and the United States intensifying the examination of the Polymarket — including a search of the Federal Bureau of Investigation which, according to the platform, was politically motivated—it is necessary to curb some of the enthusiasm for what some supporters of the prediction market consider a “new era” for the industry.

And maybe bet that if a future shock arrives for the world of opinion polls, it is more likely that it will come from artificial intelligence than from betting.

The idea behind prediction markets is simple’ bettors' money flows provide more valuable information than pollsters' surveys, with financial incentives rewarding the most accurate traders.

Like a spread bet in the financial markets, changing odds can work continuously and also be applied to almost anything, as shown by Polymarket's morbid range of bets, including whether or not a nuclear weapon will explode in 2024.

But there are limits, and not only because election betting is a legal gray area. The first is that these are bets, not polls – they need both closure and liquidity, which makes them quite narrow oracles for gauging public opinion.

Another is that the markets can be wrong, as can the polls. Two decades ago, George W Bush's victory over John Kerry also seemed to herald a new era for political betting, only for the double whammy of Trump and the 2016 Brexit to shatter it.

The inefficiencies of the market are, of course, there to be exploited by mythical traders with piercing eyes like Theo, but they could also reflect the biases inherent in the crypto markets (which bias young people and men) that diminish their usefulness.

There is also the risk of manipulation; financial incentives do not only attract truth seekers. Political scientist Dan Cassino gives the example of centuries-old bets on the papal elections in Rome, which led to his own scandals as the spread of gossip became lucrative; more recent examples include big bets on Mitt Romney in 2012 that made this year's election tighter than it was.

US regulators have warned of the risks to the integrity of the elections and in 2022 fined Polymarket for running an illegal derivatives market.

#Romney #Trump #America #GenZ

📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸