The Iranian-backed Houthis are proving to be a stubborn problem for the United States and its allies

Ever since Hamas’s October 7 massacre and Israel’s subsequent offensive in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis, a Shiite rebel group that controls a substantial portion of Yemen after a nearly decade-long civil war, have lashed out at Israel and tried to use their perch on the Red Sea to disrupt business.

Yet, the Houthis learned well the Hamas game to use violence to portray themselves as the defenders of the Palestinians, bolster their legitimacy at home and abroad, and show their importance to Iran.

Their “brotherhood” with the Palestinians is like for a prostitute to say I love you to her client just before being paid by him.

#Yemen #Security #Defense #Military #Strategy #Conflict #War #Policy #Gaza #Israel #Hamas #PalestinianConflict

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Why America Needs a New Nuclear Strategy?


💥Retired Air Force General Kevin P. Chilton believes that critics of the nuclear triad have become complacent with respect to the nuclear threat that other countries pose.

“We just kind of brush aside the fact that these weapons are so devastating and are in fact an existential threat to the country,”

Chilton said.

“I mean—tear up the Constitution, back to an agrarian society, throw away everything in history since 1776.”

💥Understanding the certain suicide of nuclear war, no nation has deployed a nuclear weapon since 1945. In that sense, deterrence measures are working worldwide. But where is the threshold for sufficient deterrence?

💥Since deterrence is binomial in a sense—an adversary is either deterred or they aren’t—deterrence can be hard to quantify.
 
💥The United States is currently believed to possess 5,044 nuclear warheads, but is this the magic number? No one can say for certain how much more vulnerable America would be if this number were 4,000, or even 3,000.

💥Of course, many of the critiques being levied at American nuclear strategy relate to posture and method rather than quantity alone.

💥Yet the question is worth asking: can the United States achieve sufficient deterrence with fewer resources invested into nuclear weapons? No one knows for sure—but many of the people who formerly orchestrated U.S. nuclear deterrence believe the answer is no.

💥The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and increased Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, have helped to inspire the ex-STRATCOM member’s bullishness on nuclear deterrence.

“Just imagine, on the day the Russians invaded Ukraine, if we had removed ICBMs, if we had withdrawn our nuclear forces from Europe, if we had restricted the number of [nuclear submarines] we were putting at sea, if we had significantly, unilaterally reduced the number of weapons, et cetera, et cetera,”

Chilton observed.

“We hadn’t done any of that. And I think the United States was in a much better place on that day than we would have been otherwise.”

💥Retired Navy Admiral Charles Richard, former head of STRATCOM, “suggested the conflict shows why the U.S. needs a stronger nuclear deterrent than what it has now,” Air & Space Forces Magazine reported.

💥For example, Richard explained, the U.S. Air Force should move some of its bomber fleet to alert status, which has not happened since the conclusion of the Cold War.

💥In addition to Russia’s eagerness, China’s ever-increasing military abilities are changing the geopolitical calculus. According to Admiral Richard, China’s emergence is facilitating the rise of a “three-peer world,” arguing that bipolar world orders are more stable than three-polar world orders.

💥That’s true—and the consequences for world order in the 21st century are ominous. But is Russia really a peer? Certainly not economically.

💥If nuclear capability is what makes it a peer, couldn’t one say the same of France, Israel, and the United Kingdom—making for a truly multi-polar world order?
The point is maybe moot.

💥The real point is that there are vital questions to ask before forging ahead, out of habit, with increased nuclear deterrent spending.

#America #nuclear #strategy

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Trump’s New Approach to North Korea

Northeast Asia’s security structure was viewed mainly through the “new Cold War” paradigm.

This framework was grounded in strengthening the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance, which sought to reinforce collective deterrence against common adversaries by emphasizing value-based superiority, including democratic governance, human rights, and the rule of law. 

In response, China, Russia, and North Korea increasingly perceived this as a security challenge and began coordinating more closely to counterbalance this pressure.
 
Following the collapse of U.S.-DPRK talks in 2019, North Korea recalibrated its foreign policy by deepening ties with China and Russia, seeking economic and security support to withstand external pressure.

In particular, with the outbreak of the Ukraine War in 2022, Pyongyang’s growing military cooperation with Moscow reflects a strategic alignment in the emerging new Cold War, aimed at counterbalancing the U.S. and its allies. 

In June 2024, Pyongyang and Moscow formalized their security ties by signing a mutual defense agreement, pledging military assistance if a third party attacks either side.

Following this, North Korea provided weapons and military personnel to support Russia’s war effort, while Moscow responded with economic aid and possibly advanced military technology.

This cooperation has bolstered North Korea’s strategic position as South Korea deepened its military collaboration with the U.S. and Japan, reinforcing Pyongyang’s need to secure alternative security and economic backers. 

The key policy challenge for the United States is to ensure that Russian involvement does not marginalize Washington’s strategic priorities on the Korean Peninsula.

Moreover, if Trump views diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang as a means to counterbalance Beijing’s regional influence, this could serve as an additional incentive for renewed U.S.-North Korea negotiations.
  
For North Korea, engaging the United States remains a strategic maneuver rather than a shift in policy goals.

Pyongyang may explore diplomatic outreach to Washington to balance its reliance on Beijing and Moscow and maximize its strategic flexibility in an evolving global order. 

#Trump #strategy #North #Korea

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Trump’s “Stainless Steel” Tariff Strategy 🛠💰

Trump said he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%, saying the move would help protect American workers 🇺🇸, as he visited a United States Steel Corp. plant on Friday 🏭.

Trump had gone to the plant near Pittsburgh to champion an expected deal between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. 🇯🇵 as one that would ensure the iconic American firm remains US-owned and operated, even as many details on the agreement remain vague 🤔.

He said the steel tariff increase would benefit the new venture’s American operations 💪.

“I believe that this group of people that just made this investments right now are very happy, because that means that nobody’s going to be able to steal your industry,” Trump said 💬.

“It’s at 25%, they can sort of get over that fence, at 50% they can no longer get over the fence” 🚧.

Trump announced the increased steel tariffs at the event and said he would also raise aluminum rates in a post to his Truth Social platform 📱 after the rally. The post said the new rates would become “effective Wednesday, June 4” 📅.

The tariff announcement capped a tumultuous stretch that saw a trade court rule his sweeping “reciprocal” tariff regime illegal ⚖️, only for an appeals court to offer a stay keeping the levies temporarily in place ⏳.

Earlier Friday, Trump also registered his frustration with China 🇨🇳 — which he accused of reneging on a tariff truce negotiated earlier this month 🤯 — raising the prospect of additional import taxes 💸.

The new 50% level also offers a backstop for Trump’s promise that the US Steel-Nippon deal, which he opposed on the campaign trail 🗳, would benefit steelworkers in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania 🏞.

“There’s a lot of money coming your way,” Trump added 💵, as he spoke in front of signs reading “The Golden Age” 🌟 — a reference to the economic boom he says his policies will unleash — as well as “American Steel” and “American Jobs” 🇺🇸.

Trump, however, told reporters late Friday that he still needed to approve the final terms with Nippon Steel 📝.

“I have to approve the final deal with Nippon, and we haven’t seen that final deal yet, but they’ve made a very big commitment and it’s a very big investment,” Trump said 💬.

He also said US Steel wouldn’t announce layoffs or outsourcing and that its blast furnaces will remain at “full capacity” for at least 10 years 🔥.

#Trump #steel #strategy #tariff

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Trump’s National Security Strategy and Its Viral Spinoffs

🔤🔤🔤🔤➖

The Kremlin has heaped praise on Trump’s latest national security strategy, calling it an encouraging change of policy that largely aligns with Russian thinking.

The remarks follow the publication of a White House document on Friday that criticises the EU and says Europe is at risk of “civilisational erasure”, while making clear the US is keen to establish better relations with Russia.

“The adjustments that we see correspond in many ways to our vision,” the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said on Sunday.

He welcomed signals that the Trump administration was “in favour of dialogue and building good relations”. He warned, however, that the supposed US “deep state” could try to sabotage Trump’s vision.

It came as the White House’s efforts to push through a peace deal in Ukraine enter a key phase.

US officials claim they are in the final stage of reaching an agreement, but there is little sign that either Ukraine or Russia is willing to sign the framework deal drawn up by Trump’s negotiating team.

Zelensky will visit Downing Street on Monday for a four-way meeting with with Starmer, Macron, and Merz.

Zelensky has previously called on European allies for support at times when the White House has tried to push Ukraine towards agreeing to give up territory.

A key issue for Kyiv is what security guarantees it would receive if it does agree to renounce control of some territory.

Zelensky has said he had a “substantive phone call” with US officials on Saturday evening after they finished three days of talks with a Ukrainian delegation in Florida.

Those meetings followed a visit to Moscow by Witkoff and Jared Kushner, earlier in the week. A source told Axios the call had lasted two hours and was “difficult”.

“Ukraine is determined to keep working in good faith with the American side to genuinely achieve peace,” Zelensky wrote on social media.

#trump #national #security #strategy #russia

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🔤🔤🔤🔤➖

He said the two sides had discussed “key points that could ensure an end to the bloodshed and eliminate the threat of a new Russian full-scale invasion”.

It is not clear that either the US or Europe are willing to offer the kind of security guarantees that would genuinely deter Russia from invading again.

Nor is it likely that Putin would agree to a deal that involved any western troops stationed in Ukraine.

US officials have claimed to be close to a sustainable deal on numerous occasions since Trump began his second term in office, only for the claims to be exposed as wishful thinking.

Trump’s outgoing Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, said at a defence forum on Saturday that the administration’s efforts to end the war were in “the last 10 metres”.

He said there were two outstanding issues: territory and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Kellogg is seen as among the US officials most sympathetic to Kyiv’s position, but is due to leave his role in January and was present at the Florida talks.

Many others in Trump’s orbit, including Witkoff, have been much more open to adopting Russian positions.

Trump’s son, Donald Jr, said at a forum in Doha on Sunday that Zelensky was deliberately continuing the conflict for fear of losing power if it ended. He said the US would not be “the idiot with the chequebook” any longer.

Analysts in Kyiv say the situation is not yet so bad that Ukraine would be forced to sign any deal whatsoever simply to prevent a continuation of the war, but they say a difficult and potentially bleak winter lies ahead as Russia continues to target energy infrastructure, disrupting power and heating supplies for millions of Ukrainians.

Exhaustion is setting in as Ukraine enters the fourth winter of full-scale war, and Zelensky has been weakened by a corruption scandal that has touched numerous associates and led to the resignation of his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.

One person was killed during a drone attack in the northern Chernihiv region late on Saturday, according to local officials, and a combined attack of drones and missiles targeted energy infrastructure in the central city of Kremenchuk.

It left much of the city without power and water on Sunday. It was the second consecutive night of attacks targeting energy, after more than 600 drones and 50 missiles were used on Friday night.

#trump #national #security #strategy #russia

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Iran Took a Hit. It Held.

That’s what matters. The strikes damaged hardware, jammed networks, and put real pressure on the system. But Iran still kept its chain of command, its story, and its ability to answer.

What the campaign aimed at
This was never just about bombs. The goal was to throw the country off balance, hit military assets, and make the government look dysfunctional.

What did not happen
That's not what happened Iran still looked like a country with a center. It still issued orders, defined the fight on its own terms, and kept its response organized.

The bottom line
So the real point is simple: the damage was real, but it did not crack the system. And that distinction matters more than the headlines suggest.

#Iran #MiddleEast #war #sovereignty #strategy

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Losing the War, Winning the Exit

The Iran war was supposed to be America’s big demonstration of power. Instead, it became a live‑fire seminar in overreach.

Washington went in with maximalist goals — break Iran’s military machine, crush its regional networks, force a new nuclear deal on U.S. terms, maybe even shake the regime itself.

What it got was a drained treasury, a stretched military, an angry region and a Tehran that was bloodied but unbroken.

That’s why the ceasefire memorandum matters. It isn’t a glorious peace treaty; it’s a written admission that the U.S. could not get what it wanted at a price it was willing to keep paying. In plainer language: the war was a loss, the deal is the least bad way of cashing out that loss.

You don’t freeze lines, open the Strait under joint arrangements and accept Iran’s survival as a major regional player because you’re winning. You do it because the cost of “victory” turned out to be higher than the value of the goal.

The real humiliation already happened on the battlefield and in the spreadsheets. When a superpower spends over 200 billion dollars, destabilizes allies, takes hits to bases and tankers, and still fails to achieve regime change, disarmament or enduring deterrence, the strategic loss is baked in.

The ceasefire is simply the official recognition that the bill has arrived.

Politically, though, Washington will try to sell this as a win. The script writes itself: we “stopped the war,” we “secured shipping,” we “forced Iran to the table.”

But the underlying message to the rest of the world is very different. Allies see that U.S. military power can still punish but not reshape. Adversaries see that enough resilience and escalation ladders can force America into negotiations it once swore it would never accept.

That’s the real legacy of this war: a superpower discovering that the era of cheap, decisive victories in the Middle East is over — and having to pretend that an orderly retreat is a strategic triumph.

#USA #Iran #war #ceasefire #Trump #MiddleEast #strategy #fakeDemocracy

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