Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: The primary issues I see with Miad’s notorious analysis is the fundamental lack of understanding as it pertains to countries under economic warfare pressures, and the overwhelming buy-in from a Trump Administration desperate for solutions.
Let’s start with the latter.
Miad is smart. Full stop, irrefutable. FDD… also sharp.
But the adoption of this analysis by the White House and Treasury was not made because it was the BEST analysis that existed at the time.
It was the ONLY analysis that existed at the time. That’s the problem. The Trump Administration, clear as day, entered this conflict with insufficient planning, and throughout the conflict has been entirely outclassed from a STRATEGIC perspective. Iran controls the Strait, Iran has extensive asymmetric capabilities, and Iran knows that the Trump Administration is caught in a politically untenable quagmire.
Miad and FDD offered the Trump Admin a solution to their poor preparation, and they took it.
The issue, however, is that Miad’s analysis was not pressure tested. It didn’t have the gift of public discourse before implementation. It did not get the opportunity to be refined and adjusted. And now we see the fallout from it.
The lack of understanding aspect is truly critical, and we see this playing out with the VLCC’s loading some 8M barrels from Kharg in the last two days, of which, 6M has been loaded today alone.
Miad’s analysis that points to oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, etc., operated on the core assumption that Kharg fills capacity at a rate of 1.0M-1.1M bpd, and had at the time of the blockade implementation, 13M barrels of spare capacity, thus a projection of 13 days to shut-in.
The core issue that Miad misses in his analysis, is that it operates on a status quo scenario.
That’s not how countries under economic pressure operate. We saw this extensively with Russia who had massive sanctions imposed after their 2022 (2014) invasion of Ukraine. Believe it or not, they didn’t simply just roll over and call it a day. They got creative. They innovated. They came up with new methods of sanctions-evasion. They mastered known methods.
Iran is the exact same.
Pulling a retired VLCC out of storage allowed for an additional 2M barrels to be loaded, thus extending the timeline by +2 days. Now, we have another 6M barrels loaded, +6 days.
At this point, Miad is admitting that around 18M barrels can be loaded onto available tankers.
There is a HUGE difference to the global economy between a 13 day timeline and a 31 day timeline.
But this still doesn’t totally account for what we will see. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what Iran will do to extend this timeline further, but if one thing is clear, they will do everything they can to extend that now 31 day time horizon to 40 days. To 50 days. 60 days.
And even then? It will take WEEKS if not MONTHS for it to become truly catastrophic to the point of forcing Iran to the negotiating table or creating enough public unrest for regime change movements to occur.
Miad’s core premise — oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, public unrest — is not incorrect. What is incorrect is operating on an assumption that Iran will simply roll over and call it a day.
They won’t.
Miad and FDD over-promised and under-delivered, and now the world will be the ones paying the price.
#Iran #Oil #Sanctions #Treasury #Trump
tweet
RT @BrettErickson28: The primary issues I see with Miad’s notorious analysis is the fundamental lack of understanding as it pertains to countries under economic warfare pressures, and the overwhelming buy-in from a Trump Administration desperate for solutions.
Let’s start with the latter.
Miad is smart. Full stop, irrefutable. FDD… also sharp.
But the adoption of this analysis by the White House and Treasury was not made because it was the BEST analysis that existed at the time.
It was the ONLY analysis that existed at the time. That’s the problem. The Trump Administration, clear as day, entered this conflict with insufficient planning, and throughout the conflict has been entirely outclassed from a STRATEGIC perspective. Iran controls the Strait, Iran has extensive asymmetric capabilities, and Iran knows that the Trump Administration is caught in a politically untenable quagmire.
Miad and FDD offered the Trump Admin a solution to their poor preparation, and they took it.
The issue, however, is that Miad’s analysis was not pressure tested. It didn’t have the gift of public discourse before implementation. It did not get the opportunity to be refined and adjusted. And now we see the fallout from it.
The lack of understanding aspect is truly critical, and we see this playing out with the VLCC’s loading some 8M barrels from Kharg in the last two days, of which, 6M has been loaded today alone.
Miad’s analysis that points to oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, etc., operated on the core assumption that Kharg fills capacity at a rate of 1.0M-1.1M bpd, and had at the time of the blockade implementation, 13M barrels of spare capacity, thus a projection of 13 days to shut-in.
The core issue that Miad misses in his analysis, is that it operates on a status quo scenario.
That’s not how countries under economic pressure operate. We saw this extensively with Russia who had massive sanctions imposed after their 2022 (2014) invasion of Ukraine. Believe it or not, they didn’t simply just roll over and call it a day. They got creative. They innovated. They came up with new methods of sanctions-evasion. They mastered known methods.
Iran is the exact same.
Pulling a retired VLCC out of storage allowed for an additional 2M barrels to be loaded, thus extending the timeline by +2 days. Now, we have another 6M barrels loaded, +6 days.
At this point, Miad is admitting that around 18M barrels can be loaded onto available tankers.
There is a HUGE difference to the global economy between a 13 day timeline and a 31 day timeline.
But this still doesn’t totally account for what we will see. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what Iran will do to extend this timeline further, but if one thing is clear, they will do everything they can to extend that now 31 day time horizon to 40 days. To 50 days. 60 days.
And even then? It will take WEEKS if not MONTHS for it to become truly catastrophic to the point of forcing Iran to the negotiating table or creating enough public unrest for regime change movements to occur.
Miad’s core premise — oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, public unrest — is not incorrect. What is incorrect is operating on an assumption that Iran will simply roll over and call it a day.
They won’t.
Miad and FDD over-promised and under-delivered, and now the world will be the ones paying the price.
#Iran #Oil #Sanctions #Treasury #Trump
tweet
Nuno Felix
This right here is solid, solid analysis.
tweet
This right here is solid, solid analysis.
The primary issues I see with Miad’s notorious analysis is the fundamental lack of understanding as it pertains to countries under economic warfare pressures, and the overwhelming buy-in from a Trump Administration desperate for solutions.
Let’s start with the latter.
Miad is smart. Full stop, irrefutable. FDD… also sharp.
But the adoption of this analysis by the White House and Treasury was not made because it was the BEST analysis that existed at the time.
It was the ONLY analysis that existed at the time. That’s the problem. The Trump Administration, clear as day, entered this conflict with insufficient planning, and throughout the conflict has been entirely outclassed from a STRATEGIC perspective. Iran controls the Strait, Iran has extensive asymmetric capabilities, and Iran knows that the Trump Administration is caught in a politically untenable quagmire.
Miad and FDD offered the Trump Admin a solution to their poor preparation, and they took it.
The issue, however, is that Miad’s analysis was not pressure tested. It didn’t have the gift of public discourse before implementation. It did not get the opportunity to be refined and adjusted. And now we see the fallout from it.
The lack of understanding aspect is truly critical, and we see this playing out with the VLCC’s loading some 8M barrels from Kharg in the last two days, of which, 6M has been loaded today alone.
Miad’s analysis that points to oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, etc., operated on the core assumption that Kharg fills capacity at a rate of 1.0M-1.1M bpd, and had at the time of the blockade implementation, 13M barrels of spare capacity, thus a projection of 13 days to shut-in.
The core issue that Miad misses in his analysis, is that it operates on a status quo scenario.
That’s not how countries under economic pressure operate. We saw this extensively with Russia who had massive sanctions imposed after their 2022 (2014) invasion of Ukraine. Believe it or not, they didn’t simply just roll over and call it a day. They got creative. They innovated. They came up with new methods of sanctions-evasion. They mastered known methods.
Iran is the exact same.
Pulling a retired VLCC out of storage allowed for an additional 2M barrels to be loaded, thus extending the timeline by +2 days. Now, we have another 6M barrels loaded, +6 days.
At this point, Miad is admitting that around 18M barrels can be loaded onto available tankers.
There is a HUGE difference to the global economy between a 13 day timeline and a 31 day timeline.
But this still doesn’t totally account for what we will see. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what Iran will do to extend this timeline further, but if one thing is clear, they will do everything they can to extend that now 31 day time horizon to 40 days. To 50 days. 60 days.
And even then? It will take WEEKS if not MONTHS for it to become truly catastrophic to the point of forcing Iran to the negotiating table or creating enough public unrest for regime change movements to occur.
Miad’s core premise — oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, public unrest — is not incorrect. What is incorrect is operating on an assumption that Iran will simply roll over and call it a day.
They won’t.
Miad and FDD over-promised and under-delivered, and now the world will be the ones paying the price.
#Iran #Oil #Sanctions #Treasury #Trump tweet