Evergreen Intel
So the bizarre twist about last night's Iranian ballistic missile attack on Erbil: it was to blast a villa owned by the CEO of the largest Kurdish oil company. https://t.co/84gfSg5q68
Video shows the aftermath of rocket attack targeted #Erbil.
#Iran claims that this villa was an #Israeli intelligence center while it’s owned by Baz Karin, CEO of KAR group company.
The company is the largest #Oil Kurdish company owns the KRI Pipeline & refineries. https://t.co/3fe98rctcd - Blesa Shaways
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Nuno Felix
RT @vtchakarova: The agreement tonight on #oil sanctions against Russia will effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year. #geoeconomics
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WarMonitor 🇺🇲🇺🇦
RT @ElinaMorhunova: $100 billion in 100 days. This is the estimated value of #oil & #gas and #coal exported by Russia since its invasion of #Ukraine. https://t.co/MPMbWlVNrv
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Nuno Felix
RT @APHClarkson: A lot of the "Russian economy invincible" takes will look silly by September at this rate https://t.co/x28pEzKfP9
Russian Urals #oil trading for 67 USD, the lowest price since early December 2021. https://t.co/YIYsjqH4DS - Janis Kluge
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Nuno Felix
RT @RealCynicalFox: Egypt is currently subsidizing both energy & food. This is a stop gap measure that cannot be maintained indefinitely. Recall rising grain prices were a major (often overlooked) contributing factor to the Arab Spring political violence. https://t.co/GeJ1nx0gfD
Egypt subsidising diesel at cost of nearly $3 billion annually- PM @reuters

These energy stimulus payments and subsidies in an increasing number of countries are stimulating #oil products demand in a weakening global economy.

https://t.co/Z1x29He7FL - Josh Young 🦬🛢️
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Nuno Felix
RT @Nigelgd1: Russia’s monthly oil & gas revenues have more than halved since April. “Spiking inflows/ sanctions failing”narrative was over-written. https://t.co/fSAZe7Wl50
#Russian #oil & #gas revenues collapsed in July, according to @ru_minfin failing of #gas income is especially impressive, because of the energy war with the #EU. Export duty fell 1/3: -32.9% YoY (64.9% YoY in June). We will see the reverse in o&g revenues during next month. https://t.co/KJM6tnTlEf - Alexandra Prokopenko
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Nuno Felix
RT @TotherChris: Venezuela threatening to annex western Guyana.

Given Venezuela's relationship with Russia and Iran, it is unsurprising that they are being encouraged to breach international law again.

The Essequibo claim was settled in 1905 with Venezuela's own request for independent arbitration, facilitated by the Monroe-driven USA who were not enamoured with Europe at the time.

The independent arbitrators found in favour of the current Guyana border with some gains to Venezuela following a survey. That decision arguably came down to whether using the outdated system of Rivers as Borders, or the now modern usage of a River Basin with grandfathered arrangements / agreements honoured was the appropriate basis for settling land border disputes.

The UK's interest in this threat is direct with Guyana remaining a republic within the Commonwealth of Nations. The Commonwealth released a joint statement in September 2023 stating the Commonwealth "...supports Guyana’s territorial integrity and calls for the respect of the judicial process underway".

As recently as 2019, Britain was considering developing a military base in the Caribbean as part of an international effort to stabilise the region.

Others efforts included but are not limited to France investing in defence and security infrastructure around Rémire in French Guiana and the Netherlands investing similarly in the island of Bonaire off the north coast of Venezuela.

One of the candidate locations for UK base development was in the British Overseas Territory of Montserrat, an Island in the Leeward Island chain. Montserrat provides a stand-off location to operate from.

The other location was in Guyana itself, directly supporting Guyana in its security though closer to the main sources of threats being experienced now.

Both locations are supported by the Global Hub in Belize in the east of the Caribbean as well as by other British Overseas Territories such as Cayman and the British Virgin Islands further north.

The situation is tense and could get messy with security concerns ranging from "below threshold" actions similar to what we see from Iran through what we're seeing in the Red Sea from the Houthi's in Yemen to an invasion of Guyana similar to what we have seen Russia do to Ukraine in both the Crimea / Tauric Peninsula and Eastern Ukraine itself.

Venezuela manufactures a number of Iranian drones and ships on license now, including the Shahed-136 drone used by Russia to strike Ukrainian cities and fast-attack boats such as those recently delivered to Venezuela by Iran aboard Makran.

A significant amount of trade passes through the southern Caribbean from Panama and passes within reach of Venezuela.

Bolivia is suspected of being a customer of these Iranian-licensed weapons from Venezuela.

🚨🇻🇪Venezuela could launch an invasion of🇬🇾Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo area after a referendum on annexation to be held on Sunday.
🇬🇾is the rising star of the #Oil market
🇻🇪a fading superstar
🛢️Latin America is getting closer to a energy war with global implications
🧵 - Francesco Sassi
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Nuno Felix
RT @vtchakarova: Are you paying attention yet? #RedSea #Velsig

“A hefty 20% of global container volumes, 10% of seaborne trade and 8-10% of seaborne gas and oil pass through the Red Sea and Suez route. If unresolved, the crisis will cause a supply-chain crunch.”👀 #shipping 🚢#RedSea #Houthi #containers #oil #tankers #LNG #USLNG #LPG #OOTT #ONGT - Susan Sakmar
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WarMonitor 🇺🇲🇺🇦
Logical.

The strike against Russian oil facilities in Tuapse, Russia, only days after the successful strike against the Ust-Luga terminal removes all doubt that we are dealing with a targeted effort to eliminate all major Russian oil and gas ports, so that they are rendered useless for any operations.

When looking at the Russian oil and gas pipeline map, then you will notice that almost all of them head West. There is a small pipeline going east, but it is not connected to the main oil fields in Western Siberia and only small in size. Russia's economic lifeline goes all the way West. In the past, this was the matter of problems for the West, since Russia used this power to blackmail Europe. Now, its close proximity has become the source of weakness.

Among all of those pipelines only 5 end in Russian sea ports. Every other pipeline, especially the Druzhba pipeline, enters Western (NATO) territory and are therefore subject of sanctions or worse. The Druzhba pipeline goes anyway partly through Ukrainian territory and the rest such as the pumping stations are anyway in firing range.

3 of the pipelines end near Sankt Petersburg in the Baltic Sea, 2 of them go the Black Sea. Among of them, Ukraine successfully struck 2 already. Ust-Luga is inoperable for the next weeks or even months. Shipping companies will increasingly reconsider sending their vessels to those ports which are military targets.

This will be a big headache for the Russian war effort. The current attacks are still small in size, using a handful of drones, but already caused considerable damage. When Ukraine starts mass-hitting those ports, then the Russian air defense will not be able to stop the outcome, even when destroying 99% of all drones.

The National Geographic map is from 2006 and yet not much has changed since then. The major difference I see is the extension of the natural gas pipeline grid of which some have been turned into "sea water pipelines". The irony behind that speak for itself. Putin and his oligarchs never ever anticipated this situation, like everything since February 2022. Everything what Moscow does makes a bad situation worse and I'm sure that sooner or later somebody in Putin's circle (of which nobody is a saint but simply tired of this vicious cycle) will do the math that it is easier to remove Putin than remove the Ukraine will for freedom and independence.

#Ukraine #Russia #Oil #NaturalGas - (((Tendar)))
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Nuno Felix
RT @Tendar: The strike against Russian oil facilities in Tuapse, Russia, only days after the successful strike against the Ust-Luga terminal removes all doubt that we are dealing with a targeted effort to eliminate all major Russian oil and gas ports, so that they are rendered useless for any operations.

When looking at the Russian oil and gas pipeline map, then you will notice that almost all of them head West. There is a small pipeline going east, but it is not connected to the main oil fields in Western Siberia and only small in size. Russia's economic lifeline goes all the way West. In the past, this was the matter of problems for the West, since Russia used this power to blackmail Europe. Now, its close proximity has become the source of weakness.

Among all of those pipelines only 5 end in Russian sea ports. Every other pipeline, especially the Druzhba pipeline, enters Western (NATO) territory and are therefore subject of sanctions or worse. The Druzhba pipeline goes anyway partly through Ukrainian territory and the rest such as the pumping stations are anyway in firing range.

3 of the pipelines end near Sankt Petersburg in the Baltic Sea, 2 of them go the Black Sea. Among of them, Ukraine successfully struck 2 already. Ust-Luga is inoperable for the next weeks or even months. Shipping companies will increasingly reconsider sending their vessels to those ports which are military targets.

This will be a big headache for the Russian war effort. The current attacks are still small in size, using a handful of drones, but already caused considerable damage. When Ukraine starts mass-hitting those ports, then the Russian air defense will not be able to stop the outcome, even when destroying 99% of all drones.

The National Geographic map is from 2006 and yet not much has changed since then. The major difference I see is the extension of the natural gas pipeline grid of which some have been turned into "sea water pipelines". The irony behind that speak for itself. Putin and his oligarchs never ever anticipated this situation, like everything since February 2022. Everything what Moscow does makes a bad situation worse and I'm sure that sooner or later somebody in Putin's circle (of which nobody is a saint but simply tired of this vicious cycle) will do the math that it is easier to remove Putin than remove the Ukraine will for freedom and independence. #Ukraine #Russia #Oil #NaturalGas
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The Intel Crab
RT @vtchakarova: Ukraine has attacked 12 #oil refineries in Russia as of March 17. #Velsig #geopolitics
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Visioner
RT @TTheBattlefield: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 ZELENSKYY CRACKS DOWN: Ukraine Sanctions 225 Captains of Russia's 'Shadow Fleet'

‼️Ukraine is taking aim at the human element of Moscow's war economy. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has officially imposed sweeping sanctions on the international captains commanding Russia's illicit oil tankers, as well as key figures in the drone supply chain.

🔍 Key Details of the New Sanctions:

🔻The Shadow Fleet: The decree targets 225 captains from 11 different countries (including India, the Philippines, and Russia) who navigate the vessels smuggling Russian oil products worldwide.

🔻Evading Embargoes: Monitoring in the Black, Red, and Baltic seas confirmed these captains deliberately bypassed price caps set by the EU and G7. (Notably, 188 of the tankers they command are already under Western sanctions).

🔻Military-Industrial Hits: In a parallel move, Ukraine sanctioned 44 Russian companies, 46 Russian citizens, and 2 Iranians responsible for supplying critical aviation spare parts for deadly Shahed drones.

💡 Why it matters (Zero-Click Context): By specifically targeting the captains rather than just the physical vessels or shell companies, Kyiv is escalating the personal and legal risks for international maritime crews. Ships can be renamed and shell companies dissolved, but a sanctioned captain loses their ability to work globally. This aims to cripple the human resource pipeline keeping Russia's economic lifeline afloat.

👇 Will sanctioning individual captains actually deter international crews from manning Russia's shadow fleet, or will Moscow simply pay them higher premiums to take the risk? Let's discuss in the replies.

▶️ Follow for daily frontline and geopolitical updates: @TTheBattlefield

#Ukraine #Russia #Sanctions #ShadowFleet #Oil #Geopolitics #Zelenskyy #BreakingNews
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Nuno Felix
RT @Ross__Hendricks: For those willing to listen, Trump is telling you that he has no ability to de-escalate the situation with Iran and tame #oil prices... buckle up!

U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS SHORT-TERM OIL PRICE SPIKES FROM THE WAR WITH IRAN ARE A “SMALL PRICE TO PAY” FOR GLOBAL SECURITY, ADDING THAT PRICES WILL DROP RAPIDLY ONCE THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR THREAT IS ELIMINATED. - TRUTH SOCIAL - First Squawk
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Nuno Felix
RT @Ross__Hendricks: The trade is actually very easy... you buy #oil, and then when Trump and his minions manipulate the market lower, you thank them for the discount and buy more

Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now

Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3%

Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49%

Green = repost below, potential mines in the Strait, +9.57% https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/2031444454893302151/photo/1 - Jim Bianco
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Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: The primary issues I see with Miad’s notorious analysis is the fundamental lack of understanding as it pertains to countries under economic warfare pressures, and the overwhelming buy-in from a Trump Administration desperate for solutions.

Let’s start with the latter.

Miad is smart. Full stop, irrefutable. FDD… also sharp.

But the adoption of this analysis by the White House and Treasury was not made because it was the BEST analysis that existed at the time.

It was the ONLY analysis that existed at the time. That’s the problem. The Trump Administration, clear as day, entered this conflict with insufficient planning, and throughout the conflict has been entirely outclassed from a STRATEGIC perspective. Iran controls the Strait, Iran has extensive asymmetric capabilities, and Iran knows that the Trump Administration is caught in a politically untenable quagmire.

Miad and FDD offered the Trump Admin a solution to their poor preparation, and they took it.

The issue, however, is that Miad’s analysis was not pressure tested. It didn’t have the gift of public discourse before implementation. It did not get the opportunity to be refined and adjusted. And now we see the fallout from it.

The lack of understanding aspect is truly critical, and we see this playing out with the VLCC’s loading some 8M barrels from Kharg in the last two days, of which, 6M has been loaded today alone.

Miad’s analysis that points to oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, etc., operated on the core assumption that Kharg fills capacity at a rate of 1.0M-1.1M bpd, and had at the time of the blockade implementation, 13M barrels of spare capacity, thus a projection of 13 days to shut-in.

The core issue that Miad misses in his analysis, is that it operates on a status quo scenario.

That’s not how countries under economic pressure operate. We saw this extensively with Russia who had massive sanctions imposed after their 2022 (2014) invasion of Ukraine. Believe it or not, they didn’t simply just roll over and call it a day. They got creative. They innovated. They came up with new methods of sanctions-evasion. They mastered known methods.

Iran is the exact same.

Pulling a retired VLCC out of storage allowed for an additional 2M barrels to be loaded, thus extending the timeline by +2 days. Now, we have another 6M barrels loaded, +6 days.

At this point, Miad is admitting that around 18M barrels can be loaded onto available tankers.

There is a HUGE difference to the global economy between a 13 day timeline and a 31 day timeline.

But this still doesn’t totally account for what we will see. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what Iran will do to extend this timeline further, but if one thing is clear, they will do everything they can to extend that now 31 day time horizon to 40 days. To 50 days. 60 days.

And even then? It will take WEEKS if not MONTHS for it to become truly catastrophic to the point of forcing Iran to the negotiating table or creating enough public unrest for regime change movements to occur.

Miad’s core premise — oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, public unrest — is not incorrect. What is incorrect is operating on an assumption that Iran will simply roll over and call it a day.

They won’t.

Miad and FDD over-promised and under-delivered, and now the world will be the ones paying the price.

#Iran #Oil #Sanctions #Treasury #Trump
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Nuno Felix
This right here is solid, solid analysis.

The primary issues I see with Miad’s notorious analysis is the fundamental lack of understanding as it pertains to countries under economic warfare pressures, and the overwhelming buy-in from a Trump Administration desperate for solutions.

Let’s start with the latter.

Miad is smart. Full stop, irrefutable. FDD… also sharp.

But the adoption of this analysis by the White House and Treasury was not made because it was the BEST analysis that existed at the time.

It was the ONLY analysis that existed at the time. That’s the problem. The Trump Administration, clear as day, entered this conflict with insufficient planning, and throughout the conflict has been entirely outclassed from a STRATEGIC perspective. Iran controls the Strait, Iran has extensive asymmetric capabilities, and Iran knows that the Trump Administration is caught in a politically untenable quagmire.

Miad and FDD offered the Trump Admin a solution to their poor preparation, and they took it.

The issue, however, is that Miad’s analysis was not pressure tested. It didn’t have the gift of public discourse before implementation. It did not get the opportunity to be refined and adjusted. And now we see the fallout from it.

The lack of understanding aspect is truly critical, and we see this playing out with the VLCC’s loading some 8M barrels from Kharg in the last two days, of which, 6M has been loaded today alone.

Miad’s analysis that points to oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, etc., operated on the core assumption that Kharg fills capacity at a rate of 1.0M-1.1M bpd, and had at the time of the blockade implementation, 13M barrels of spare capacity, thus a projection of 13 days to shut-in.

The core issue that Miad misses in his analysis, is that it operates on a status quo scenario.

That’s not how countries under economic pressure operate. We saw this extensively with Russia who had massive sanctions imposed after their 2022 (2014) invasion of Ukraine. Believe it or not, they didn’t simply just roll over and call it a day. They got creative. They innovated. They came up with new methods of sanctions-evasion. They mastered known methods.

Iran is the exact same.

Pulling a retired VLCC out of storage allowed for an additional 2M barrels to be loaded, thus extending the timeline by +2 days. Now, we have another 6M barrels loaded, +6 days.

At this point, Miad is admitting that around 18M barrels can be loaded onto available tankers.

There is a HUGE difference to the global economy between a 13 day timeline and a 31 day timeline.

But this still doesn’t totally account for what we will see. I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t know what Iran will do to extend this timeline further, but if one thing is clear, they will do everything they can to extend that now 31 day time horizon to 40 days. To 50 days. 60 days.

And even then? It will take WEEKS if not MONTHS for it to become truly catastrophic to the point of forcing Iran to the negotiating table or creating enough public unrest for regime change movements to occur.

Miad’s core premise — oil well shut-ins, hyperinflation, public unrest — is not incorrect. What is incorrect is operating on an assumption that Iran will simply roll over and call it a day.

They won’t.

Miad and FDD over-promised and under-delivered, and now the world will be the ones paying the price.

#Iran #Oil #Sanctions #Treasury #Trump - Brett Erickson
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Open Source Intel
Reports indicate tanker loading operations at Kharg Island have stopped.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Very interesting.

🚢Satellite imagery shows no tankers have loaded cargo since the suspected Kharg Island oil spill.

Imagery from May 7, 8, and 11 shows no tankers present at the loading terminals following the suspected spill on May 6.

#KhargIsland #MiddleEast #Oil https://twitter.com/SoarAtlas/status/2054393779126431863/video/1 - Soar
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Nuno Felix
RT @aeberman12: Veteran oil trader Mark Eckard thinks the calm may end around Aug. 22–24.

His thesis: buyers are delaying physical purchases as long as possible. Once contract needs become unavoidable, concentrated buying could hit a supply-constrained market all at once.

That’s how $85 oil can become $95–110 very quickly.

#Oil #CrudeOil #Energy #Trading #Hormuz #IranWar‌

Veteran oil trader Eckard just called it: After Aug 22, crude is primed for a sharp upward jump.
Here’s why you need to listen. https://twitter.com/Mark4XX/status/2090334464031227924/video/1 - Mark
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Nuno Felix
Yes. Physical scarcity is about to kill all the paper manipulation

Veteran oil trader Mark Eckard thinks the calm may end around Aug. 22–24.

His thesis: buyers are delaying physical purchases as long as possible. Once contract needs become unavoidable, concentrated buying could hit a supply-constrained market all at once.

That’s how $85 oil can become $95–110 very quickly.

#Oil #CrudeOil #Energy #Trading #Hormuz #IranWar‌ - Art Berman
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Nuno Felix
RT @OilandEnergy: Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says diesel is currently around $200 a barrel and commercial onshore inventories are well below 6 billion barrels, most of them locked up. Refilling them while meeting demand could take up to two years, he told the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh. #Oil #Diesel #Aramco #Hormuz
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