2. Israel’s Interests and the Possibility of Backchannel Negotiations with Iran
🇮🇱 Beyond the publicly stated goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s interests include strengthening its regional dominance, weakening Iran’s influence over proxy groups (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), and preventing a potential rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. through nuclear talks, which could limit Israel’s freedom of action.
- Additionally, Israel is almost openly pursuing regime change in Iran to eliminate the long-term threat and redistribute regional resources (although these objectives remain less explicit).
Israel’s aggressive lobbying — for example, public calls by Ambassador Leiter to destroy Fordow — and the scale of the Israeli operation make secrecy around any backchannel negotiations, like the murky Cyprus story, nearly impossible. Add to this Iran’s diplomatic blitz — 22 calls from Araghchi and letters to the UN — and you get a story too big to fully hide.
🔺 Is Israel targeting Khamenei and regime change?
Absolutely! Mossad’s track record, including infiltration of Iran’s security apparatus, along with at least two candid admissions by Netanyahu, prove that Israel is targeting Khamenei — if the strategic benefits outweigh the risks.
A world without Iranian ayatollahs can indeed breathe easier, but the blowback could also be huge.
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🇮🇱 Beyond the publicly stated goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s interests include strengthening its regional dominance, weakening Iran’s influence over proxy groups (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), and preventing a potential rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. through nuclear talks, which could limit Israel’s freedom of action.
- Additionally, Israel is almost openly pursuing regime change in Iran to eliminate the long-term threat and redistribute regional resources (although these objectives remain less explicit).
Israel’s aggressive lobbying — for example, public calls by Ambassador Leiter to destroy Fordow — and the scale of the Israeli operation make secrecy around any backchannel negotiations, like the murky Cyprus story, nearly impossible. Add to this Iran’s diplomatic blitz — 22 calls from Araghchi and letters to the UN — and you get a story too big to fully hide.
🔺 Is Israel targeting Khamenei and regime change?
Absolutely! Mossad’s track record, including infiltration of Iran’s security apparatus, along with at least two candid admissions by Netanyahu, prove that Israel is targeting Khamenei — if the strategic benefits outweigh the risks.
A world without Iranian ayatollahs can indeed breathe easier, but the blowback could also be huge.
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3. How Stable Is the Iranian Regime? What Will Happen to Iran if Khamenei Is Eliminated
🇮🇷 The Iranian regime is battered but not broken. A strike against Khamenei would be a test of its survival and could push Iran to the brink.
Eliminating Khamenei could paralyze the Iranian regime, given his role as the ultimate decision-maker and symbol of the Islamic Republic. The Spectator notes that his death would destabilize Iran, especially if his son Mojtaba, the potential successor, is also removed.
What Could Iran’s Reaction Be to Khamenei’s Assassination?
If Khamenei is killed, Iran’s response will be chaotic, driven by the IRGC and political factions:
1. IRGC Response: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls Iran’s ballistic missiles, would likely lead a fierce retaliation. Killing Khamenei would escalate vows of “severe punishment” to an existential level. General Mohammad Ali Naini has signaled readiness for escalation, and the IRGC’s air defense weaknesses (exposed by Israeli strikes) might force reliance on proxies such as Iraqi militias or the Houthis.
2. Internal Divisions: Khamenei’s death would trigger a power struggle.
Moderates like President Pezeshkian advocate restraint to avoid full-scale war, while hawks like Saeed Jalili may demand aggressive retaliation.
A leadership vacuum and Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential succession (lacking legitimacy) would spark unrest and could even lead to military rule. Economic troubles (691,500 rials per dollar) may further destabilize the regime.
3 Succession Crisis: Mojtaba Khamenei, the likely heir, lacks the religious and political influence of his father, threatening a power vacuum. Hardliners like Saeed Jalili could seize control, but factional battles within the IRGC or clergy might paralyze decision-making.
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🇮🇷 The Iranian regime is battered but not broken. A strike against Khamenei would be a test of its survival and could push Iran to the brink.
Eliminating Khamenei could paralyze the Iranian regime, given his role as the ultimate decision-maker and symbol of the Islamic Republic. The Spectator notes that his death would destabilize Iran, especially if his son Mojtaba, the potential successor, is also removed.
What Could Iran’s Reaction Be to Khamenei’s Assassination?
If Khamenei is killed, Iran’s response will be chaotic, driven by the IRGC and political factions:
1. IRGC Response: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls Iran’s ballistic missiles, would likely lead a fierce retaliation. Killing Khamenei would escalate vows of “severe punishment” to an existential level. General Mohammad Ali Naini has signaled readiness for escalation, and the IRGC’s air defense weaknesses (exposed by Israeli strikes) might force reliance on proxies such as Iraqi militias or the Houthis.
2. Internal Divisions: Khamenei’s death would trigger a power struggle.
Moderates like President Pezeshkian advocate restraint to avoid full-scale war, while hawks like Saeed Jalili may demand aggressive retaliation.
A leadership vacuum and Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential succession (lacking legitimacy) would spark unrest and could even lead to military rule. Economic troubles (691,500 rials per dollar) may further destabilize the regime.
3 Succession Crisis: Mojtaba Khamenei, the likely heir, lacks the religious and political influence of his father, threatening a power vacuum. Hardliners like Saeed Jalili could seize control, but factional battles within the IRGC or clergy might paralyze decision-making.
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4. How Khamenei’s Assassination Would Impact Global Politics and the Economy
⚔️ Regional Escalation Through Proxies:
The killing of Khamenei would unleash Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Despite losses, Hezbollah could launch rockets from Lebanon; Iraqi militias might strike U.S. bases; and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause a sharp spike in oil prices, as The Spectator warns.
This risks escalating into a broader regional war potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Gulf states.
❗️ In such a scenario, if American assets are attacked, the U.S. would be forced to enter the war (although they are already on that path).
🛢📈 Oil Storm
Khamenei’s assassination would blow up the oil market. Iran-backed Houthis could block the Red Sea, cutting off up to 15% of global supply through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude prices could soar from $80 to $120+ per barrel, as it was in the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 The U.S. and EU would face inflation and rising fuel costs. China, reliant on Iranian oil, would back Tehran, demanding stability.
Chaos will drag on if Iran doesn’t collapse. Market panic is guaranteed!
‼️ BUT — it must be understood that the fall of the Iranian ayatollah regime is now inevitable; it’s only a matter of time. Otherwise, the world risks a nuclear power run by uncontrollable IRGC fanatics, before whom even Putin’s bravado pales!
How exactly the Iranian regime falls — whether through Khamenei’s elimination or a “Syrian scenario” — is less important. The global economy will have to weather a storm in the oil markets and Houthi blackmail in the Red Sea. Otherwise, the nuclear alternative will cost far more. And everyone understands this.
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⚔️ Regional Escalation Through Proxies:
The killing of Khamenei would unleash Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Despite losses, Hezbollah could launch rockets from Lebanon; Iraqi militias might strike U.S. bases; and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause a sharp spike in oil prices, as The Spectator warns.
This risks escalating into a broader regional war potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Gulf states.
❗️ In such a scenario, if American assets are attacked, the U.S. would be forced to enter the war (although they are already on that path).
🛢📈 Oil Storm
Khamenei’s assassination would blow up the oil market. Iran-backed Houthis could block the Red Sea, cutting off up to 15% of global supply through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude prices could soar from $80 to $120+ per barrel, as it was in the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 The U.S. and EU would face inflation and rising fuel costs. China, reliant on Iranian oil, would back Tehran, demanding stability.
Chaos will drag on if Iran doesn’t collapse. Market panic is guaranteed!
‼️ BUT — it must be understood that the fall of the Iranian ayatollah regime is now inevitable; it’s only a matter of time. Otherwise, the world risks a nuclear power run by uncontrollable IRGC fanatics, before whom even Putin’s bravado pales!
How exactly the Iranian regime falls — whether through Khamenei’s elimination or a “Syrian scenario” — is less important. The global economy will have to weather a storm in the oil markets and Houthi blackmail in the Red Sea. Otherwise, the nuclear alternative will cost far more. And everyone understands this.
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5. Is This a War for Oil or Something Bigger?
On the surface — yes, oil plays a role. If the Khamenei regime collapses, Brent prices could spike to $120–130 per barrel due to supply disruptions (Iran produces about 3.2 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of the global market). But that’s only part of the puzzle. Sanctions relief following a regime change could open the market, causing prices to inevitably drop. However, the main prize is not just oil, but geopolitical control.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳 The #US and #Israel want to undermine the #Iran–#Russia–#China “axis of evil” that threatens their influence. The fall of Iran would weaken Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while simultaneously striking at Moscow’s and Beijing’s positions in the region. China, by the way, depends on Iranian oil (about 10% of its imports), so it’s not just a bystander — its aircraft carriers may serve as a warning that Beijing won’t let the region be reshaped easily.
🇨🇳 The USS Nimitz has left the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a shift in power: the U.S. is focusing on the Middle East, where tensions are hotter. But this also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in the Pacific.
🌍 So, this is not just a war for oil — it’s a struggle for dominance in a region where oil, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and alliances with Russia and China are intertwined. If Iran falls, the board will be flipped, but China is already preparing its pieces for a new chess game — and we need to be ready for that.
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On the surface — yes, oil plays a role. If the Khamenei regime collapses, Brent prices could spike to $120–130 per barrel due to supply disruptions (Iran produces about 3.2 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of the global market). But that’s only part of the puzzle. Sanctions relief following a regime change could open the market, causing prices to inevitably drop. However, the main prize is not just oil, but geopolitical control.
🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷🇷🇺🇨🇳 The #US and #Israel want to undermine the #Iran–#Russia–#China “axis of evil” that threatens their influence. The fall of Iran would weaken Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while simultaneously striking at Moscow’s and Beijing’s positions in the region. China, by the way, depends on Iranian oil (about 10% of its imports), so it’s not just a bystander — its aircraft carriers may serve as a warning that Beijing won’t let the region be reshaped easily.
🇨🇳 The USS Nimitz has left the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a shift in power: the U.S. is focusing on the Middle East, where tensions are hotter. But this also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in the Pacific.
🌍 So, this is not just a war for oil — it’s a struggle for dominance in a region where oil, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and alliances with Russia and China are intertwined. If Iran falls, the board will be flipped, but China is already preparing its pieces for a new chess game — and we need to be ready for that.
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⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Израильский телеканал i24News сообщил, что министр обороны США Пит Хегсет приказал подготовиться к потенциальному присоединению Соединенных Штатов к текущим операциям Израиля против Ирана, в случае если президент Трамп даст «зеленый свет».
❗️На X также появились сообщения, что американские танкеры-заправщики уже направляются в сторону Ирана. Курилла представил Трампу и Хегсету военные варианты решения ситуации с Ираном в случае провала ядерных переговоров еще до атаки Израиля, 10 июня.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
#США #Израиль #Иран
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Командующий CENTCOM генерал Майкл Э. Курилла и другие должностные лица Центрального командования США, как сообщается, поддерживают присоединение к конфликту, но некоторые высокопоставленные должностные лица администрации Трампа выступают против прямого участия США.
❗️На X также появились сообщения, что американские танкеры-заправщики уже направляются в сторону Ирана. Курилла представил Трампу и Хегсету военные варианты решения ситуации с Ираном в случае провала ядерных переговоров еще до атаки Израиля, 10 июня.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
#США #Израиль #Иран
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⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 According to a report by i24News, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered that preparations be made for the United States to potentially join the ongoing operations by Israel against Iran, in case the “Green Light” is given by President Trump.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
❗️There were also reports on X that American refueling tankers were already heading towards Iran. Kurilla presented Trump and Hegseth with military options for resolving the situation with Iran in the event of a failure of nuclear negotiations even before the Israeli attack, on June 10.
#USA #Israel #Iran
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The report further states that officials within U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), likely including CENTCOM Commander General Michael E. Kurilla, support U.S involvement in Iran, but there is opposition by other senior officials in the Trump Administration.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934716747162026073
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1934723185053978768
❗️There were also reports on X that American refueling tankers were already heading towards Iran. Kurilla presented Trump and Hegseth with military options for resolving the situation with Iran in the event of a failure of nuclear negotiations even before the Israeli attack, on June 10.
#USA #Israel #Iran
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Forwarded from Bloomberg
Breaking: Donald Trump is cutting short his visit to the G-7 leaders’ summit and returning to Washington. Read more here: https://bloom.bg/45Vg6DG
Bloomberg.com
Trump to Leave G-7 Summit and Return to Washington on Monday
President Donald Trump is cutting short his visit to the Group of Seven leaders’ summit, according to the White House, and returning to Washington.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Live News (Hyperborea)
🇺🇸 The U.S. Secretary of Defense announced the deployment of additional assets to U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility to enhance defensive posture and protect U.S. forces in the region.
@TabZLIVE
@TabZLIVE
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Chronicles of Troubled Times: prologue to WWIII
⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 The takeoff of multiple #US Air Force KC-135R/T Stratotanker (17 aircraft) and KC-46A Pegasus (4 aircraft) tankers from air bases in the United States headed for Europe was recorded. ⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 Зафиксирован взлёт множества самолётов-заправщиков ВВС #США…
⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 The 32 #US Air Force tankers that flew to Europe and the CENTCOM area of responsibility yesterday are joined by four more KC-135T/R Stratotankers that took off in the last hour
⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 К 32 самолётам-заправщикам ВВС #США, вылетевшим вчера в Европу и зону ответственности CENTCOM, присоединяются ещё четыре KC-135T/R Stratotanker, взлетевшие в течение последнего часа
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⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 К 32 самолётам-заправщикам ВВС #США, вылетевшим вчера в Европу и зону ответственности CENTCOM, присоединяются ещё четыре KC-135T/R Stratotanker, взлетевшие в течение последнего часа
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🇮🇷 ИРАН: События за последние несколько часов
⚡️🇮🇱 Нетаньяху заявил, что удары существенно задержали ядерную программу Ирана, но полное уничтожение ключевого объекта Фордо требует бомб большой мощности, таких как GBU-57 (MOAB), которые есть только у США.
▪️#Израиль сосредоточил удары на трёх ключевых ядерных объектах: Натанз, Исфахан и Фордо. Два из них получили значительные повреждения, но Фордо, расположенный глубоко под землёй, остаётся уязвимым.
⚡️🇺🇸 Трамп призвал всех гражданских немедленно эвакуироваться из Тегерана и потребовал «полной капитуляции» Ирана: "У меня нет желания вести переговоры с Ираном. Не ожидаю ничего, кроме их полной капитуляции" — Reuters
На выезд из Тегерана выстроились длинные очереди из автомобилей.
⚡️🇴🇲🇶🇦 🇸🇦 Иран обратился к Оману и Катару с просьбой выступить посредником в переговорах с Вашингтоном, чтобы остановить израильские удары и возобновить ядерные переговоры.
Саудовская Аравия также за кулисами тоже работает над продвижением соглашения о прекращении огня, направленного на возобновление переговоров
⚡️🇮🇷 Иранский дипломат Арагчи заявил, что для прекращения конфликта достаточно одного звонка из Вашингтона, намекая на возможность дипломатического решения, если Израиль прекратит удары.
⚡️Пит Хегсет приказал начать подготовку к участию США в операциях Израиля против Ирана, ожидая одобрения Трампа
⚡️🇺🇸 Сопротивление Конгресса усиливается: сенатор Тим Кейн (демократ от Вирджинии) и представитель Томас Мэсси (республиканец от Кентукки) представили резолюции, запрещающие Трампу использовать военную силу против Ирана без одобрения Конгресса — The Hill, Рolitico, CNN, Roll Call ❌
❗️Все статьи о законодательных инициативах по контролю над военными полномочиями президента США уже удалены
⚡️🇺🇸 Администрация Трампа заявила союзникам, что не будет вмешиваться, если Иран не нацелится на американцев, — Axios
#США #Израиль #Иран
Подписаться | Прислать контент
⚡️🇮🇱 Нетаньяху заявил, что удары существенно задержали ядерную программу Ирана, но полное уничтожение ключевого объекта Фордо требует бомб большой мощности, таких как GBU-57 (MOAB), которые есть только у США.
▪️#Израиль сосредоточил удары на трёх ключевых ядерных объектах: Натанз, Исфахан и Фордо. Два из них получили значительные повреждения, но Фордо, расположенный глубоко под землёй, остаётся уязвимым.
⚡️🇺🇸 Трамп призвал всех гражданских немедленно эвакуироваться из Тегерана и потребовал «полной капитуляции» Ирана: "У меня нет желания вести переговоры с Ираном. Не ожидаю ничего, кроме их полной капитуляции" — Reuters
На выезд из Тегерана выстроились длинные очереди из автомобилей.
⚡️🇴🇲🇶🇦 🇸🇦 Иран обратился к Оману и Катару с просьбой выступить посредником в переговорах с Вашингтоном, чтобы остановить израильские удары и возобновить ядерные переговоры.
Саудовская Аравия также за кулисами тоже работает над продвижением соглашения о прекращении огня, направленного на возобновление переговоров
⚡️🇮🇷 Иранский дипломат Арагчи заявил, что для прекращения конфликта достаточно одного звонка из Вашингтона, намекая на возможность дипломатического решения, если Израиль прекратит удары.
⚡️Пит Хегсет приказал начать подготовку к участию США в операциях Израиля против Ирана, ожидая одобрения Трампа
⚡️🇺🇸 Сопротивление Конгресса усиливается: сенатор Тим Кейн (демократ от Вирджинии) и представитель Томас Мэсси (республиканец от Кентукки) представили резолюции, запрещающие Трампу использовать военную силу против Ирана без одобрения Конгресса — The Hill, Рolitico, CNN, Roll Call ❌
❗️Все статьи о законодательных инициативах по контролю над военными полномочиями президента США уже удалены
⚡️🇺🇸 Администрация Трампа заявила союзникам, что не будет вмешиваться, если Иран не нацелится на американцев, — Axios
#США #Израиль #Иран
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The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com
Trump expected to offer Iran 'last-chance' proposal, US and European sources tell 'Post'
An Israeli official told the Post that, as of now, Israel has not received any official approach.
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🇮🇷 IRAN: Developments in the Past Few Hours
⚡️🇮🇱 Netanyahu stated that the strikes have significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program, but fully destroying the key Fordow facility would require heavy bunker-buster bombs like the GBU-57 (MOAB), which only the U.S. possesses.
▪️Israel has focused its strikes on three key nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Two of these have sustained significant damage, but Fordow, located deep underground, remains vulnerable.
⚡️🇺🇸 Trump has called for all civilians to immediately evacuate Tehran and demanded Iran’s 'complete give-up'
Long lines of cars have formed as people try to leave Tehran.
⚡️🇴🇲🇶🇦 🇸🇦 Iran has reached out to #Oman and #Qatar, asking them to mediate talks with Washington to halt Israeli strikes and restart nuclear negotiations.
#SaudiArabia is also quietly working behind the scenes to broker a ceasefire agreement aimed at resuming talks.
⚡️🇮🇷 Iranian diplomat Araghchi said that ending the conflict would take just one call from Washington, hinting at the possibility of a diplomatic solution if Israel halts its strikes.
⚡️🇺🇸 U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered preparations for potential U.S. involvement in Israel’s operations against Iran, pending Trump’s approval.
⚡️🇺🇸 Congressional pushback grows: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced resolutions to block Trump from using military force against Iran without Congress’s approval — The Hill, Рolitico, CNN, Roll Call ❌
❗️All articles about legislative initiatives to control the US President's war powers have already been removed
⚡️🇺🇸 The Trump administration told allies it won’t get involved unless Iran targets Americans — Axios
#USA #Israel #Iran
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⚡️🇮🇱 Netanyahu stated that the strikes have significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program, but fully destroying the key Fordow facility would require heavy bunker-buster bombs like the GBU-57 (MOAB), which only the U.S. possesses.
▪️Israel has focused its strikes on three key nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Two of these have sustained significant damage, but Fordow, located deep underground, remains vulnerable.
⚡️🇺🇸 Trump has called for all civilians to immediately evacuate Tehran and demanded Iran’s 'complete give-up'
Long lines of cars have formed as people try to leave Tehran.
⚡️🇴🇲🇶🇦 🇸🇦 Iran has reached out to #Oman and #Qatar, asking them to mediate talks with Washington to halt Israeli strikes and restart nuclear negotiations.
#SaudiArabia is also quietly working behind the scenes to broker a ceasefire agreement aimed at resuming talks.
⚡️🇮🇷 Iranian diplomat Araghchi said that ending the conflict would take just one call from Washington, hinting at the possibility of a diplomatic solution if Israel halts its strikes.
⚡️🇺🇸 U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered preparations for potential U.S. involvement in Israel’s operations against Iran, pending Trump’s approval.
⚡️🇺🇸 Congressional pushback grows: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced resolutions to block Trump from using military force against Iran without Congress’s approval — The Hill, Рolitico, CNN, Roll Call ❌
❗️All articles about legislative initiatives to control the US President's war powers have already been removed
⚡️🇺🇸 The Trump administration told allies it won’t get involved unless Iran targets Americans — Axios
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Axios
Scoop: U.S. tells allies it won't join war unless Iran targets Americans
The U.S. wants Iran to understand that killing Americans is its red line.
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