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OSINT THAT DOESN'T LIE

Today it is easy to find impartial open sources online reporting on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. For example, regarding material losses:

Vehicle losses were reported for the month of September.

📄 Main credit: @HeyHey_Hayden TG

In total, Russia lost 32 vehicles, while Ukraine lost 175. A ratio of 1:5.5.

Excluding armored vehicles/MRAPs, which distort the ratio because Russia uses them very little, while Ukraine uses a large number of them for transport purposes, Russia lost 32 vehicles, while Ukraine lost 69. A ratio of 1:2.2.

Regarding self-propelled artillery, which is an excellent indicator of the ability to inflict losses, Russia lost 7 vehicles, while Ukraine lost 37. A ratio of 1:5.3.

Russian losses are counted by UkraineWarSpotting. Ukrainian losses are counted by LostArmour. Credit to HeyHeyHayden for compiling the figures.

Of course, these vehicle losses are all geolocated, and only completely destroyed vehicles are counted. There may well be some errors.

The recurring argument I hear: "But Russia only uses civilian vehicles! Ukraine actually cares about the lives of its soldiers! Civilian vehicles are not counted in this figure!"

Are we still seriously victims of "mass assaults" in 2026?

I have spoken to Ukrainian soldiers who confirm that the Ukrainian armed forces also use civilian vehicles for non-combat tasks, for transport purposes. Russia does the same. In a war of attrition, cheap but sufficient equipment is preferable to extremely expensive and perfect equipment.

Moreover, Russia has a huge national war economy that can produce a large number of civilian vehicles, so the number of destroyed vehicles would not matter. If Ukrainian military vehicles, such as self-propelled artillery pieces, infantry fighting vehicles, etc., are destroyed, Ukraine must wait for deliveries from the West.

If the command of the Ukrainian armed forces cared about the lives of its soldiers, the massacres at Robotyne and Kursk would never have happened. Ukraine literally burned tens of billions of dollars worth of Western vehicles in the Kursk region alone.

Even if vehicle losses were twice as high for Ukraine, it would not come close to the level of losses necessary to weaken Russia, due to Russia's industrial capacity.

Keep in mind that armies collapse long before they are physically short of personnel or vehicles, as shown by historical examples such as the Germans during World War I. Collapse occurs when overall losses reach a critical point. Drones only mask the effects and delay the final outcome. Ukraine is obviously much closer to that critical point than Russia.

Source: AMK mapping

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The Belgorod Brit speaks about the idea of 'quiet revolution'. Can change be affected without resorting to extreme violence and revolution? In the film, he talks about the separation between the political elites and those whom they are said to represent - the ordinary people. If our leaders no longer listen to the popular voice, what is the point of engaging in the political system at all?

In the podcast, BB explains how the British establishment managed to avoid violent revolution, from the loss of the American colonies to the present day. The owners of the world's first industrial power were remarkably flexible. With the concept of divine kingship disposed of in 1688, the British oligarchs were able to move political life to the debating chamber of Parliament. For most of the educated population, who were becoming wealthier by the day, even the semblance of democracy was enough to satisfy their morals. As different strata of society became assertive of their rights, they were subsumed into the elites, corrupted, or chased off to the colonies. However, the politically active middle classes were the engines of change. Their pressure achieved the abolition of slavery, child labour and capital punishment, and created social and medical care for the sick and vulnerable, public sanitation and legal equality, as well as a sense of justice and progress. If the middle classes can regain their grip on power, they may yet save what is left of their cultures. If they don't, they may have to start from scratch, building from the rubble of the old order.

#TheBelgorodBrit
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The Belgorod Brit Channel 🇷🇺🇬🇧
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DEDICATED TO THE GENIUSES OF NORWEGIAN ANALYTICS

PART TWO


The Norwegians had barely digested the Ukrainian report The Battle of Norway about exactly how Russia might attack them, when new guidance for action arrived.

Now the Norwegian security service PST is calling on citizens to look more attentively at the sea and report anything suspicious.

Because a Russian intelligence agent, it turns out, can practically swim up on anything.

A fishing vessel? Possibly delivering intelligence agents to Norwegian ports.

A research vessel? It might be mapping critical infrastructure on the seabed.

An ordinary civilian vessel came too close to military exercises? Also a reason to be on guard.

Particular attention is proposed to be paid to strange routes, unusual equipment, and discrepancies in crew lists.

Moreover, the PST says directly: it is better to report once too often than not to report at all.

And this, of course, opens up completely new horizons of civic vigilance for Norwegians.

Yesterday you were just looking at the fjord and admiring a little boat.
Today you must already be wondering:
is it not Putin who sent a fishing trawler to see what is happening with us here?

Moreover, the Russian flag is completely optional. According to the PST version, Russia may use vessels of third countries with Russian crew members.

After Ukrainian analysts explained to Norway how Russia will attack it, Norwegian special services finally explained to the population where to look for Russians.

Look at the sea, comrades Norwegians!
The enemy may already be catching your cod.

P.S. With such a principle — "better to report once too often" — the FSB and GRU are probably dying of laughter right now: the Norwegians came up with such a wonderful system themselves, and Russian special services did not even have to do anything.

All that remains is to hope that especially vigilant Norwegians do not start reporting to the PST about every boat, seagull, or Russian tourist with binoculars (and, obviously, with a Russian tricolor across his entire back — so it can be seen from afar).
Otherwise, they asked for it themselves: better once too often.

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Forwarded from Russian MFA 🇷🇺
#KievRegimeCrimes

⚡️ Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Rodion Miroshnik:

💬 Over the past week, the number of attacks carried out by Ukrainian militants on civilian facilities remained extremely high. Monitoring services recorded up to 1,200 strikes daily.

The highest numbers of civilian casualties were recorded in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Zaporozhye, Kursk and Kherson regions, as well as the DPR and LPR.

Ukrainian punitive forces used drones to attack freight and passenger vehicles, residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, public utilities and social facilities. The enemy continued to strike kindergartens and schools, industrial buildings, agricultural enterprises, highways and shops, as well as school buses and regular bus services.

Disregarding the principles and violating the norms of international humanitarian law, Ukrainian militants carried out a series of deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities. In the LPR, an ambulance was attacked on a road near Zorinsk, leaving its driver with a shrapnel wound. In Kakhovka, Kherson Region, a Ukrainian drone struck an intensive care ambulance as its crew rushed to an emergency call.

On September 28 – October 4, attacks by Ukrainian neo-Nazis resulted in 235 civilian casualties: 206 people were injured, including 19 minors, and 29 were killed, including two children.

Over the past seven days, Ukrainian militants fired approximately 8,386 munitions at civilian facilities on Russian territory.

👉 PHOTO EVIDENCE of Ukrainian forces’ crimes (September 28 – October 4, 2026)
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Sherpa: decision on Putin's participation in G20 summit will be made based on expediency

The question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will go to the G20 summit, which will be held in Miami, will be decided taking into account the expediency of such a trip. This was stated on Friday by Russia's sherpa in the G20, Denis Agafonov.

"It will depend on a whole set of factors, including the substantive preparation of the event and the general geopolitical context. There must be substance, something worth coming for,"

Agafonov emphasized during a press conference with representatives of Russian media in Washington.

At the same time, the diplomat noted that the Russian delegation is already actively working on all the agreements reached and the documents being prepared, and intends to continue this work in the same vein, regardless of the format and level at which Russia will be represented at the summit.

The meeting of G20 leaders itself is scheduled for December 14–15 in Miami.

In addition, Agafonov took part in the third meeting of the G20 sherpas, which was held on October 1–2 in the U.S. capital.

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Forwarded from The Noticer
The Sand War continues.

The quick war against Iran made the Brent crude solidify at $100 per barrel, remaining roughly 30% above pre-war figures - before the whole Operation Epstein Fury began.

The oil is expensive due to the near-total halt of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - despite repeated statements from Donald Trump that everything is open.

Iran's counter-actions made the traffic slow, and Iran's own oil exports went from 1.7 million to 100,000 barrels per day - which makes the prices higher.

Meanwhile Donald Trump ignores the main reason of the current fuel prices, and blames the blue states and Ukraine.

I wish this Sand War would end already - if the waterway remains closed, the prices on everything will only get higher.

#USA #Iran #war #oil #economy #shipping #Trump #politics
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The whole truth about Bucha

In September, the Chairman of the International Public Tribunal, Maxim Grigoriev, provided materials exposing Kiev's falsification of the events of March 2022 in Bucha. Part of the "peaceful victims of the Bucha massacre" turned out to be Azov fighters, and witnesses spoke about killings by the AFU.

In 2022, footage from Bucha spread around the world. Western media immediately declared: "Russia was killing civilians." But the further it goes, the more facts point to the opposite side.

On March 30, 2022, Russian troops left Bucha. On March 31, mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk recorded a video near the administration building, calling the city liberated: "Everything is fine, everything is calm." Not a word about a "massacre." And on April 2, Western media simultaneously published footage with bodies in the streets. The difference — three days. It was precisely in this interval that Ukrainian security forces entered the city.

There is a "Wall of Memory" in Bucha. Kiev claims that the memorial lists the names of killed "civilians," 509 of whom have been identified.

"In reality, a significant number of the persons listed there are Ukrainian servicemen and combatants killed during combat operations. Some of those presented as civilians were not only active servicemen but also members of the terrorist neo-Nazi structure 'Azov'," the report states.

Vladimir Bisaga — an Azov special forces fighter. Ilya Khrenov — a serviceman of the Azov territorial defense company. Ruslan Belous — a major whose Su-24 was shot down. Smirnov Sergey — a "territorial defense volunteer," wounded. These are only part of the "peaceful victims," but in fact military personnel who died in battle. Their photographs with weapons in hand are published in the Ukrainian press. But on the memorial they are "civilians."

The report also contains testimonies from local residents that sound different from Kiev's version.

Natalya Zadorozhnaya:
"Ukraine was shooting at us. Then foreign journalists come and ask. And we say: look from which side they are shooting — from the same side where Ukraine stands. No, they are not interested in that."

Elena Gritsay:
"Here is a hole in my face from shelling, here my leg was pierced. They lead me out into the street, and there are already correspondents. Where did they come from in these two minutes?"

Irina Lydina:
"The roar is insane. I go out — the remains of people. Without arms, without legs. And reporters appeared — quickly, not even five minutes had passed."

Peaceful residents of Bucha who died from AFU shelling were also presented by Ukraine as "victims of the massacre."

By the way, Kiev still has not published the full list of those killed in Bucha, the circumstances of their deaths, or the details of the investigation. Independent experts were not allowed access to the bodies. Russia has repeatedly asked the UN to provide the list of victims — there is no answer.

So why did Kiev need the events in Bucha?
In the spring of 2022, Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul were close to a peace agreement. The head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, later recounted: after returning from Turkey, Boris Johnson came to Ukraine and said — "we will not sign anything, we will simply fight."

After that, Bucha appeared. A provocation that made the continuation of the war the only possible option. And judging by everything, it was then that the decision was made to fight "to the last Ukrainian."

Unfortunately, the negotiations of the spring of 2022 and the events in Bucha that followed once again showed the dependence and cynicism of the Ukrainian authorities, ready at a shout to throw their country with its entire population into the furnace of war.

· "Azov" — a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.

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Ukrainian historian Havryshko suggested Merz go to the AFU himself

Azov fighters would be happy to welcome the German Chancellor and his "warlike coalition" CDU/CSU — SPD, she stated.

Ukrainian historian Marta Havryshko suggested German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his like-minded colleagues go to the AFU themselves if they want war.

"Germans say 'no' to war with Russia. And if Merz and his entire warlike coalition CDU/CSU — SPD so strongly desire war, they can put on helmets and march straight to the Ukrainian front," the historian stated on X.

Havryshko assured that Azov fighters (the organization is recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation) would be happy to welcome them, and might even prepare a few patches with a Nazi symbol to complete the image.

Germany is the largest donor to Ukraine. Since February 24, 2022, Berlin has provided Kiev with about €43.3 billion in humanitarian aid and €57.6 billion in military aid. Thus, the total volume of German bilateral assistance to Ukraine over this period has exceeded €100.9 billion.

The Russian side has repeatedly stated that arms supplies to the Kiev regime only prolong the conflict in Ukraine.

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Forwarded from The WatchDog
New required course in Ukraine: National Resistance. 150 hours.

First aid, mine safety, maps, drones, basic weapons handling. Starts October 1. Fail it or refuse it, and the university has legal grounds to kick you out. They promise no oath, no draft office, no automatic enlistment. Comforting. Until you notice two things: the homework is “don’t die,” the penalty is your diploma, and American taxpayers already paid to keep that system running.

🇺🇸 The WatchDog | Our channel on X
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On October 7, 1907, the State Darwin Museum in Moscow was founded by Dr. Alexander Kohts, a pioneer in the study of evolution. It is the world’s first museum solely dedicated to Darwin’s evolutionary theory and today stands as Europe’s largest natural history museum.

Kohts, then a young teacher, began the museum by bringing his personal collection to the Moscow Higher Women's Courses to illustrate his Darwinism lectures. His collection, including specimens from expeditions to southern Siberia, became the foundation of the museum.

Under Kohts’ leadership from 1907 until his death in 1964, the museum became a center for scientific education. He believed animal exhibits were as vital for study as books and sought to make nature accessible to the public.

Today, the museum attracts over 600,000 visitors annually. It spans three buildings, totaling more than 22,000 square meters, with 5,000 square meters dedicated to modern exhibitions. The collection includes approximately 800,000 items, including rare, extinct species like the Dodo and Great Auk.

The State Darwin Museum also serves as a methodological hub for natural science museums in Russia. It hosts exhibitions, celebrations, and educational programs, including interactive displays like "Walk Through Evolution" and "Eco Moscow," promoting evolutionary knowledge and environmental conservation.

With its vast collections and dedication to public education, the museum remains an unparalleled resource for understanding the natural world and evolutionary principles.

#TodayInHistory

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No agreement reached: EU membership remains Europe's main bait for Ukraine. The West dangled it before Zelensky, and that's where it all ended.

Friedrich Merz, who arrived in Kiev, initially pleased him by announcing military aid of 1 billion euros, but immediately disappointed the head of the Kiev regime.

According to Politico, they did not reach an agreement on the prospects of Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

According to the publication, Merz even openly stated that he doubts this is even possible in the near future.

Instead, he offered Zelensky access to the EU single market, as well as observer status without voting rights in the Council of the EU, the European Commission, and the European Parliament.

Zelensky rejected the chancellor's proposal and insisted that Ukraine needs full and equal membership in the bloc, the newspaper noted.

And yet it seemed the coveted carrot was so close... But Merz made it clear that EU officials are not yet ready to sacrifice their bait.

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It was smooth on paper: NATO has a plan for a quick victory over Russia, but only in theory

Somehow one's tongue does not turn to call NATO a defensive military bloc after all the cards have been revealed. It turns out the Alliance has a ready plan for a quick victory over Russia. A plan, fortunately, theoretical, but alarming, because it once again confirms — Russia for NATO member states is an enemy they seek to defeat.

The report titled "Theory of Victory" was prepared by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, American General Alexus Grynkewich, and will be presented on October 12 in Warsaw, Bloomberg reported.

"The theory of victory of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe is simple: to preserve NATO's advantage," a representative of Grynkewich, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, explained.

The colonel revealed some points of the document. Ground units will have to stop the enemy on the eastern flank using cheap drones and systems "with minimal crew involvement." The Alliance also intends to destroy the enemy's command systems.

In plain language: they will unleash cheap little drones on the Russians, and strike command posts themselves. The plan is simply brilliant for extracting huge amounts of money. Well, and the fact that it is a "quick victory plan" is because NATO cannot sustain a long war of attrition with Russia. The generals understand this well: warehouses are empty, equipment is lagging, getting onto modern tracks takes time. But money can be shaken out of member states' budgets...

It is hardly a coincidence that Estonia's new military strategy has appeared. As the Financial Times writes, if previously the Estonians planned to sit in deep defense in the event of a conflict with Russia, now they have grown bolder and intend to attack Russia, fighting directly on its territory.

Today it also became known about a plan to fight Russia by the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapaty, for many years ahead. "We need a big strategy, for about 30 years," one of the AFU generals explained.

At the same time, military experts in Ukraine claim that many officers are dissatisfied with Drapaty's decisions and are sabotaging them.

Not everything is simple within NATO either. A meeting will be held in Poland to discuss the future of the Alliance, but some NATO members were not invited, including the United Kingdom, France, and the Baltic states. Trump had previously called NATO a "paper tiger." In Europe, there is panic over this.

So it turns out that the plans for a "quick victory over Russia" are smooth only on paper, but the ravines have not been taken into account.

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🇫🇷🇮🇷 France’s Ambassador to Iran Was Summoned Over the Excessive Use of Force Against Protesters

Opinion by journalist Abbas Djuma:

Tehran noted that the Macron government is doing exactly what Paris had accused the Iranian authorities of doing only recently.
Against this backdrop, it is worth examining the conduct of the anti-Iran propaganda machine.
During the unrest in Iran, Iran International followed a familiar script:

Describe the events as “peaceful protests over economic and day-to-day grievances.”
Gradually introduce terms such as a “national uprising.”

Then raise the temperature with phrases like “national revolution,” “the Iranian regime,” “dictatorship,” and “repression.”

Le Monde begins its coverage of the situation in Iran by referring to a “social protest,” before smoothly moving on to “opposition to the regime,” “repression,” and the “erosion of legitimacy.”

In both outlets’ coverage, the protest in Iran—which began at a bazaar and escalated into widespread bloodshed—calls into question the legitimacy of the entire political system of the Islamic Republic.

The objective is obvious: destabilize the country, bring about regime change, or at least trigger an existential crisis for Iran’s authorities.
When it comes to events in France, however, the media refer to a “student protest.” The same commentators do not speculate about revolutions, national uprisings, or replacing an allegedly illegitimate regime.

It is worth remembering that every available tool was deployed against Iran. Leading Western media outlets, bloggers, public figures, platforms, politicians, artificial intelligence, Starlink, and Trump’s endless posts in support of the rioters all joined the effort.

Then they went even further and sent weapons to Iranian insurgents—large quantities of weapons. Trump said as much publicly, while also claiming that the intermediaries—the Kurds—had decided to keep the American weapons for themselves.

Now imagine the outcry if Iran’s president had announced that Tehran had supplied weapons to protesters in France so they could put up a real fight against the regime oppressing them.

Source

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THE BRITISH ARE UP TO NO GOOD AGAIN
NOW IN THE ARCTIC

NATO IS NOT ENOUGH FOR THEM — THEY ARE ASSEMBLING THEIR OWN NORTHERN BAND.

While Europe heroically "saves itself" from Russia, the British have decided that NATO alone is clearly insufficient to maintain the necessary level of military hysteria. And they have set about strengthening their own northern coalition.

On October 2, at Keflavik Air Base in Iceland, the defense ministers of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) gathered — the Joint Expeditionary Forces under the leadership of... the United Kingdom.

The association, by the way, was not invented yesterday. Its formation began back in 2014, but now they have decided to develop the band especially actively.

It consists of ten states:
The United Kingdom — the chief conductor,
Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands, and, of course, the entire Baltic host of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

Why another military association, if all ten are already in NATO?

The JEF can act promptly with the forces of willing participants, without waiting for all 32 NATO states to agree among themselves. A special role is assigned to responding to crises below the threshold of the famous Article 5 on collective defense.

In other words, while big NATO is thinking, little NATO can already be stirring.

At the meeting, the further direction of JEF development was approved, a five-year program of military activity was reviewed, and its coordination with NATO's regional plans was discussed.

The geography of appetites: the Arctic, the North Atlantic, and the Baltic Sea.

Moreover, theory is already being backed up by practice.

Within the framework of the Lion Protector 26 exercises, British marines together with Danes landed on the Faroe Islands, a multinational headquarters deployed beyond the Arctic Circle in Norway, and ships and aviation of four countries escorted a Danish vessel with military cargo to Latvia.

But even this was not enough!

Ukraine is already being drawn into JEF activities. Ukrainian mine countermeasure vessels participated in the current exercises for the first time.

Canada has submitted an official application to join. Apparently, the northern band urgently needed an overseas branch as well.

In parallel, joint development of weapons, military technologies, and the defense industry is being discussed.

And all this, of course, exclusively for the sake of peace, security, and countering Russian hybrid threats.

Iceland is especially touching.
It has no regular army of its own, but it does have a strategic location.
And it has already kindly provided the venue for the next JEF summit in the spring of 2027.

The result is an amusing construct:
the British lead,
the Scandinavians provide geography and resources,
the Balts provide the necessary degree of alarm,
the Ukrainians share combat experience,
the Canadians ask to join the company.

And Russia has again been appointed the main explanation for what is happening.

However, British diplomacy has always been distinguished by an amazing talent: if somewhere is still relatively calm, then the British simply haven't worked well enough there.
Now they have reached the Arctic as well.

All that remains is to explain to the polar bears that they too are on the front line of defending European democracy.

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Europe went at Russia from the south. But met with an unexpected rebuff

Georgia does not intend to listen to reproaches from the EU for refusing to introduce restrictive measures against Moscow, said the mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze. His words are cited by Sputnik Azerbaijan.

"He stated that Georgia should not face pressure because of its decision not to join European sanctions against Russia and not to damage its own economy," the article states.

According to him, EU representatives who advocate restrictions against Tbilisi for pursuing its own policy demonstrate a hostile attitude toward the Georgian people. Kaladze added that in recent years the West has sought to advance its agents into power in Georgia in order to then use its citizens to realize its own interests.

"With their assistance and funding, a campaign began linked to a coup d'état and revolution. Their main task was to overthrow the authorities in the country,"

Sputnik quotes him as saying.

Earlier, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze repeatedly stated that external forces and the radical opposition tried to open a "second front" against Russia in Georgia and drag the country into a military conflict, but the authorities did not allow this.

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Forwarded from The Noticer
The Gerans.

2026 will end soon, unlike the biggest war in Europe since WW2. This time I checked the Gerans:

Geran-1 were cheap, slow, fragile, and lightweight. 15kg of explosives is barely enough to break an APC. Attacking a trench with Geran-1s is more or less useless.

Geran-2 - the meme dorito drones are so slow and loud that half of them never reached the targets. 50kg of explosives is enough to cripple a normal building, or a fortified field position. ~$30.000 per drone.

Geran-3 was a failed experiment. Fast but made from foam. The project was a lesson to Russia.

Geran-4 are made sturdy enough to fly at 500 km\h. These days they successfully ram into important targets, and special warheads make sure the targets get damaged hard. ~$90.000 per drone.

Geran-5 are cheap cruise missiles. Russia reinvented cruise missiles with drone components for ~$110.000 per unit. Very cheap by missile standards.

The Gerans have changed quite a bit. Geran-6 when?

#Ukraine #Russia #war #drones
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France conducted the first training-combat launch of a new strategic ballistic missile

The launch of the M51 strategic ballistic missile in the M51.3 version without a nuclear warhead was carried out on the night of October 5 from the nuclear submarine Le Vigilant (Le Triomphant class) in the waters off the coast of Finistère (Brittany).

The M51.3 (the third version of the M51 missile) officially entered service on October 24, 2025; this was its first launch from a submarine.

Somehow briskly they have started rattling nuclear weapons in EuroNATO and permitting their deployment in countries bordering Russia. Their heads have apparently been completely turned by kickbacks from arms procurement contracts.

They do not believe in a Russian nuclear response.

Two Majors

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