⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🤚 A new Format from Wagner in the Form of Operational Updates on the Situation in the #Bakhmut Direction. Information as of 16 April⚡️

🔹1) The Enemy has concentrated a grouping of up to 80,000 militants in the Wagner PMC's area of responsibility;

🔹2) The AFU is taking measures to form strike groups for flank strikes;

🔹3) An AFU Grouping is concentrated near Ray-Aleksandrovka, #Malinovka and #Slavyansk in order to unblock #Bakhmut from the north;

🔹4) The Ukrainian Command concentrates forces in the areas of #Konstantinovka, #Predtechino, and #Nikolayevka in order to unblock the city from the south;

🔹5) Kiev is building up its concentration of artillery systems;

🔹6) The AFU suffers daily losses of up to 450 militants in #Bakhmut;

🔹7) Formed Territorial Defence Battalions continue to be redeployed to #Bakhmut;

🔹8) Ukrainian Militants have no shortage of weapons and ammunition;

🔹9) The Wagner PMC advances in the western part of #Bakhmut;

🔹10) Mobilised military personnel began to arrive voluntarily in the Wagner structure.

📜 Voenkor Kotenok Z; 16 Apr 2023,19:04

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🤚 Options for the AFU in #Bakhmut - Analysis by Military Chronicles⚡️

🗓 On 20 and 21 April, reports emerged that Wagner PMC fighters, with fire support by the airborne troops, had approached the O-0506 route between #Bakhmut and Chasov Yar. After this, the position of the AFU in #Bakhmut could deteriorate considerably.

🔹What is this Route and why is it so important?

Route O-0506 connected the western stronghold of the AFU in Chasovy Yar directly to the city. It passes through the village of #Khromovo and was used by the AFU directly from Chasov Yar to the western neighbourhoods of #Bakhmut. Prior to the advancement of the Wagner PMCs inside the city blocks, #Bakhmut could also be reached by another route - via the southwestern route T-0504, bypassing #Krasnoye.

Route O-0506 was the last relatively safe road through which supplies and reinforcements could be brought in and the wounded transported out.

🔹What is happening in #Bakhmut now:

As the "Bandwagon" advanced deeper into #Bakhmut, fire control over the AFU supply routes intensified, with the result that Ukrainian forces began to lose up to 90% of the equipment and people sent to #Bakhmut not only from Chasov Yar, but also from #Konstantinovka, #Druzhkovka, and #Toretsk.

At the moment, the AFU retains control of no more than 10% of the city: Ukrainian troops are in the Novy and Cherema neighbourhoods, School No. 18 and defending from Chernyakhovsky Street in #Khromovo. "Orchestra" crushes the enemy from the north in the area of Metallurgov Boulevard and Roz Alley, in parallel - on the AFU units that are trying to leave the city in small groups in one or two vehicles. FAB-120/250 bombs with planning and correction modules (MPCMs) as well as Krasnopol guided artillery rounds are actively used against targets both in the immediate vicinity of #Artyomovsk and deep in the AFU defence - #Konstantinovka, #Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar. This further complicates and slows down the supply of the group, which cannot hold out without help.

🔹What options do the AFU have?

The first option is to throw reinforcements into the city and either continue defending or cover the retreat. According to preliminary estimates, the AFU's total losses in killed, wounded, missing and prisoners of war both in and around #Bakhmut, including reinforcements destroyed almost every day, are as high as 650-730 per day.

To hold the city, the AFU is preparing to send the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the reserve 117th Territorial Defense Brigade, prepared for a counterattack, to #Bakhmut. In the western quarters of the city, these troops should reinforce units of the AFU's 92nd Mechanized, whose losses are estimated at 65%.

The second option is to retreat on asphalt roads. Most roads between #Bakhmut and neighbouring towns are not only shelled by artillery "banding" and airborne troops, but also severely damaged. Some bridges and crossings cannot be crossed by heavy equipment. This means that on the other side retreating AFU units have to transfer to another vehicle. It is practically impossible to do this safely.

The third option is to retreat through the fields:

It rained almost all last week in #Bakhmut, and rain will continue to fall next week. This will make the fields impassable again. Even tanks, not to mention pickup trucks and other vehicles, will find it difficult to get through them quickly in such conditions. Any AFU equipment that gets stuck will almost instantly come under artillery fire and be disabled, and after that the Ukrainian military will have to overcome the five-kilometre stretch between Chasov Yar and #Bakhmut on foot.

The fourth option is a diversionary flank counterattack:

If the AFU command feels that control over #Bakhmut is finally being lost, 80,000-strong reserves from Ray-Aleksandrovka, #Konstantinovka, #Predtechino, #Nikolayevka and #Dzerzhinsk will probably be brought into the fight.

📜 Military Chronicles; 21 Apr 2023, 14:54

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