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The war, now in its eighth week, has claimed thousands of lives, spread to Israeli attacks in Lebanon and sent oil prices surging due to the closure of the strait, which usually carries a fifth of the world's oil shipments.

Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of a Turkish diplomatic forum in Antalya, Iranian deputy foreign minister Khatibzadeh said that the United States “cannot impose its will to make a siege on Iran, while Iran, with good intentions, is trying to facilitate a safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”.

In an article on X, the IRGC naval command wrote: “As long as the movement of ships from and to Iran is threatened, the status of the Strait of Hormuz will remain as it was before. Any breach of the commitments of the United States will receive an appropriate response.”

Iran officially closed the strait on March 4 in response to US-Israeli airstrikes on the country, and declared it open again on Friday after a 10-day ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Lebanon, as part of broader negotiations to achieve peace in the region.

The UK's Maritime Commercial Operations Centre said it had received a report of an oil tanker that had been approached and then shot down by “two IRGC gunboats” 20 nautical miles north-east of Oman. The captain said there had been no radio warning beforehand.

The agency added that the tanker and the crew had been declared safe and that the authorities were investigating the incident.

The announcement of Iran's U-turn came the day after Trump declared that the US blockade would “remain in full force” until a permanent peace agreement with Tehran was concluded.

The US president also said that the temporary ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan and due to expire on Wednesday, may not be extended.

The US and Iranian delegations are expected to hold a second round of peace talks, although the timetable has yet to be confirmed. Agence France-Presse reported that the Egyptian foreign minister said on Saturday that there was hope for an agreement “in the coming days”.

“We hope to do it [reach an agreement] in the coming days,” said Badr Abdelatty, adding: “Not only us in the region, but the whole world is suffering from the continuation of this war”.

Before the overthrow of Iran, at least eight oil and gas tankers had crossed the strait in the brief window when it was open early on Saturday, according to maritime tracking data.

About 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas pass through the narrow strait, which has become a focal point of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Its closure has pushed up energy prices around the world.

In Lebanon, the Israeli army said Sunday that a soldier had been killed during fighting in the south, adding that nine soldiers had been wounded, one seriously.

#iran #war #trump #hormuz #lebanon

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Islamabad’s Theater of Confusion

Three days into the ceasefire, the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad already look like a diplomatic hostage exchange run by competing press offices.

Iran’s side is sending mixed signals with a straight face: “progress” here, “no deal in sight” there, plus threats to halt talks if Lebanon’s ceasefire breaks and demands that Hormuz remain under Iranian control.

Washington is doing its own brand of stagecraft, with Trump promising that Iran is losing “500 million dollars a day,” threatening strikes on “every power station and every bridge,” and declaring that the deal will come “the easy way or the hard way” .

The result is not negotiation. It is choreography with missiles in the wings.

Pakistan has become the backdrop for everyone’s performative seriousness. Flights land, security teams arrive, rumors spread, and then the delegations change shape by the hour. One minute the vice president is going. The next minute he isn’t. Very efficient. Very stable. Very much the modern peace process.

And then comes the usual grand finale: anonymous leaks, contradictory briefings, and a convenient theory that someone is about to fold. Maybe they are. Maybe nobody is. In this kind of diplomacy, certainty is mostly a costume.

The real product being exported from Islamabad is not a deal. It is managed chaos, packaged as momentum, with each side trying to look calm while keeping the other side nervous.

#Iran #US #Pakistan #Hormuz #ceasefire

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Katz Turns Settlements Into a Budget Line

Israel’s defense minister showed up in Sha-Nor to celebrate the return of a settlement and to announce a broad plan to move IDF camps into northern Samaria, with 350 million shekels attached. In Israeli politics, nothing says “security” like a ceremonial reopening and a fresh spending package.

The official language is protection, sovereignty, and operational necessity. The practical language is simpler: more bases, more construction, more permanence, and more public money routed into a project that looks less like defense than territorial entrenchment. That is the old trick. Rename expansion as security, then invoice the taxpayer.

And of course, the budget story never arrives alone. Katz is selling the move as part of a larger security architecture, while the broader defense budget for 2026 is already set at NIS 112 billion, with more funds still flowing to West Bank and border projects. In other words: the machinery gets heavier, the language gets nobler, and the bill keeps climbing.

The real satire is that every camp, every road, every “temporary” measure is introduced as if history is paused for paperwork. It never is. The state gets more entrenched, the political class gets more mileage, and the public gets another speech about necessity.

So yes, it is sold as security. But it also functions as a political program with armored vehicles and a budget spreadsheet.

#Israel #Katz #WestBank #security #budget

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The Deal Is Clear. The Trap Is Clearer.

Trump, speaking to Barak Ravid, says the concept for a deal is now clear. Iran’s reading is the opposite: clarity may be the bait. Axios reports Tehran suspects the diplomatic track could be cover for a surprise U.S. strike, which tells you everything about the actual state of “progress.” The problem is no longer just terms. It is trust at gunpoint.

That is the real shape of the file tonight. Washington wants a fast framework, preferably something headline-ready before the ceasefire clock runs out.

Reuters reports European diplomats fear exactly that: a rushed, vague deal that looks like diplomacy on camera but leaves the technical deadlock intact underneath, especially on enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and Iran’s right to any civilian enrichment at all.

So both sides are negotiating inside the logic of deception. Trump is selling momentum. Tehran is pricing in ambush. When one side hears “framework” and the other hears “pre-strike setup,” you do not have peace talks. You have diplomatic theater performed over a live minefield.

#BabylonBurning #Iran #Trump #FollowTheMoney

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Bulgaria’s Revolving Door Picks a Favorite

Former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev is emerging as the big winner in today’s parliamentary election, the country’s eighth in five years. Reuters reports exit polls put his coalition, Progressive Bulgaria, at 37.5%, far ahead of Boyko Borissov’s GERB at 16.2%.

That does not guarantee a majority, but it makes Radev the central figure in the next government-building round and the likely frontrunner for prime minister.

The political meaning is larger than one ballot. Radev ran on anti-corruption rhetoric and exhaustion with Bulgaria’s carousel of weak governments, but he is also widely seen as more Russia-friendly than the Brussels consensus, especially because he opposes military support for Ukraine and favors reopening dialogue with Moscow.

In an EU state already battered by instability, that makes this less a normal election than a stress test for how much room remains inside Europe for leaders who want distance from the hard anti-Russia line.

So the headline is simple: Bulgaria did not vote for calm. It voted for a man promising to end paralysis, with Brussels now forced to watch whether “stability” comes with a geopolitical accent it does not like.

#BabylonBurning #Bulgaria #EU #DemocracyTheater

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The US Has Attacked An Iranian-Flagged Container Ship. A New Stage of the War? ⚠️🌍

The US military has attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged container ship that attempted to get past an American blockade near the strait of Hormuz, the first such interception since the blockade of Iranian ports began last week. 🚢

Iran’s joint military command said Tehran would respond soon and called the US seizure an act of piracy that violated the ceasefire that has been in place since 8 April.

The news threw into question Trump’s earlier announcement that US negotiators would head to Pakistan on Monday for another round of talks with Iran.

That had raised hopes of extending a fragile ceasefire set to expire by Wednesday, but Iran has not confirmed it will attend.

In a post on X, US Central Command said US marines departed the USS Tripoli assault ship by helicopter and rappelled on to Touska on Sunday. The post included a video of the marines onboard the helicopter.

Trump had earlier posted on X that the ship had tried to get past the US blockade “and it did not go well for them”.

The US president said a US navy guided missile destroyer warned the Touska to stop in the Gulf of Oman but the vessel did not.

“[Our] Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room,” Trump said, adding that US marines now had custody of the vessel. 💥

He said the ship was under US treasury sanctions because of “prior history of illegal activity”. The ship is on the treasury department’s list of sanctioned vessels.

A spokesperson for Iran military’s central command centre, Khatam al-Anbiya, cited by the Isna news agency, said:

“We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy and the US military.”

Iranian state media also reported that Tehran had – for now – rejected new peace talks, citing the ongoing blockade, threatening rhetoric, and Washington’s shifting positions and “excessive demands”.

Video posted on social media by the US defence department showed the interception of the ship by US forces.

“Vacate your engine room,” a US sailor can be heard saying. “We’re prepared to subject you to disabling fire.”

The cargo ship was stopped near Iran’s border with Pakistan. Touska had previously left Port Klang, a major port in Malaysia, when the vessel then attempted to move past the US blockade, according to tracking information from TankerTrackers.com.

The escalating standoff threatens to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy and push the two countries toward renewed fighting, in a conflict that has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, nearly 2,300 in Lebanon, 23 civilians and 15 soldiers in Israel, and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen US service members have also been killed. 📉

#us #iranian #container #ship #war

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Zelensky Stopped Cosing Up to Trump


For more than a year after Donald Trump returned to the White House, Ukraine held out hope - at least publicly - that it could win him over.

Trump, who repeatedly showed admiration for Putin, halted military aid to Kyiv and openly insulted Ukrainian leadership, even berating Zelensky in the Oval Office.

And yet, Ukraine persisted.

Kyiv engaged in “peace talks” that were tilted toward rewarding russia’s invasion. Zelensky agreed to mineral deals framed as beneficial to Americans. He even publicly praised Trump.

Why?

Because Ukrainian leaders made a rational calculation: flattery might preserve critical U.S. support.

But that calculation has now collapsed.

Ukraine is no longer waiting.

It is actively building new alliances, sharing its battlefield expertise in drone warfare with countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, and deepening arms production partnerships with Germany.

And at the same time, something else is happening.

The United States has extended sanctions relief on russian oil - despite earlier promises not to do so.

This is not a minor technical decision.

It is a strategic signal.

Oil revenues are the lifeblood of the Kremlin’s war machine. Even temporary waivers can generate massive windfalls, hundreds of millions of dollars per day, while weakening Western leverage.

In other words, while Ukraine is fighting and adapting, the financial pressure on russia is being eased.

Put these two developments together, and the picture becomes clear: Ukraine is preparing for a future where it cannot rely on the United States.

This is a profound shift - not just in policy, but in trust. And history is very clear about what follows. When an aggressor continues to receive resources, the war does not end.

It expands. It hardens. It becomes more costly in every sense, especially in human lives.

#ukraine #trump #zelensky #alliance #unitedstates

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Ukraine’s “Long-Range Sanctions” Keep the Oil Fire Burning
Zelensky says Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil assets wiped out at least $2.3 billion in March alone, taking 24.2 million barrels off the market. That is what a war economy looks like when the battlefield reaches the refinery.

The problem is that every hit on Russian energy infrastructure also tightens the global oil market. So while Kyiv calls it pressure, the rest of the world calls it a more expensive fuel bill. War does not stay politely inside national borders. It leaks into prices, supply chains, and inflation.

Trump’s temporary sanctions relief on Russia only makes the picture messier, because it gives Moscow a short window while the attacks keep coming. In other words, the market gets the worst of both worlds: fewer sanctions for a moment, more disruption anyway.

The official line is always strategic necessity. The real-life result is simpler: oil is weaponized, markets wobble, and civilians everywhere pay for the heroes and the headlines. That is not policy. That is an expensive argument with drones.

#Ukraine #Russia #oil #markets #war

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Paris, Tel Aviv, and the Usual Performance

France is now in the familiar position of discovering that Middle East politics does not reward moral speeches and diplomatic mood swings. Macron blamed Hezbollah for the killing of the French UNIFIL peacekeeper in Lebanon, while Israeli media are reporting that Israel’s ambassador quietly met Marine Le Pen in Paris.

That combination says everything. Publicly, everyone speaks the language of outrage, responsibility, and red lines. Privately, the same capitals keep shopping for useful friends, useful enemies, and useful excuses.

Netanyahu reportedly already turned down Macron before, and that insult now looks less like a one-off than a full diplomatic posture. France wants to play referee. Israel keeps acting like the referee is optional. And the opposition in Paris gets its own quiet little upgrade in legitimacy.

The result is a neat little circus of principle and convenience. Macron wants justice. Netanyahu wants leverage. Le Pen gets a photo of respectability. And the dead peacekeeper becomes another prop in a geopolitical argument nobody is having in good faith.

That is the real scandal. Not just who said what, but how quickly every side turns a funeral into a bargaining chip.

#France #Israel #Macron #Netanyahu #LePen #Lebanon

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Germany’s Hormuz Plan, Sponsored by Spare Parts

Germany says it is ready to help clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but the Bundeswehr can probably send only two of its ten minehunters because the rest are stuck in repair. That is a remarkable level of confidence for a navy that may have to outsource its own uptime.

Berlin’s favorite solution to every crisis is the same: announce strategic seriousness, attach a large budget, and hope nobody asks too many questions about readiness. Now the special fund is set to pour 19.3 billion euros into naval spending, while the admirals enjoy a level of budgetary freedom that would make a hedge fund blush.

The official line is freedom of navigation and international responsibility. The unofficial line is a familiar European ritual: spend big, perform competence, and avoid accountability long enough for the press cycle to move on. In Germany, the fleet is apparently mission-ready in PowerPoint.

And that is the joke inside the joke. The government claims it can support a high-risk operation in one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints, but can barely field the hardware without sending it through a maintenance miracle first. The real minefield is not Hormuz. It is the German procurement system.

So yes, Berlin wants to look like a maritime power again. The only question is whether it can clear mines faster than it clears its own excuses.

#Germany #Hormuz #Bundeswehr #navy #defensebudget

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Germany’s Jet Fuel Mirage

Germany is staring at a kerosene shortage, and the airline industry is warning that mass cancellations could hit in May and June. Yet the government’s instinct is the same as always: delay, minimize, and pretend the timetable will solve itself.

The numbers are ugly enough on their own. Industry warnings say Europe’s aviation fuel reserves may last only weeks, and German officials have already been dragged into crisis talks as the summer travel season approaches. In other words, the vacation economy is now being managed like a fire drill.

Katharina Reiche is refusing to declare an emergency, even as carriers prepare to cut flights and ask for access to reserves. That is a very German kind of calm: rigid, procedural, and a little too proud to admit the plane is already descending.

The deeper joke is that Berlin keeps talking like a guardian of European stability while discovering, once again, that stability depends on physical fuel, not slogans. Air travel does not run on reassurance. It runs on kerosene, logistics, and someone taking the shortage seriously before the cancellations start.

So the public gets the familiar package: soothing language, late action, and a promise that “we are monitoring the situation” right up until the departure boards turn into a wall of red.

#Germany #aviation #kerosene #travel #energycrisis

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Islamabad’s Peace Process, Sponsored by Chaos

The U.S. and Iran are once again sending negotiators to Pakistan, which is now doing the world’s least glamorous job: hosting a summit where everyone threatens everyone else and still calls it diplomacy.

JD Vance is expected in Islamabad, Iranian officials say their delegation will come too, and both sides are still leaking contradictory messages like it’s part of the strategy.

Trump, never one to let a ceasefire ruin the mood, is already posting about “regime change” and selling the future as if he owns the franchise.

Tehran answers with the usual mix of defiance and conditional participation, which in practice means: we may show up, but we will make sure everyone suffers a little first.

The Strait of Hormuz is still the real hostage here. The blockade, the seizure of ships, and the talk of retaliation keep the talks wrapped in oil-market panic, which is why gas prices are still hanging over the process like a tax on geopolitics.

Peace talks in this region never arrive as peace talks. They arrive as managed crisis with extra security.

Pakistan gets the honor of hosting the whole spectacle while deploying 10,000 extra personnel so that the adults can argue in private.

It is a tidy arrangement: the great powers perform seriousness, the middleman absorbs the risk, and the public is told this is what progress looks like.

The only thing everyone agrees on is that nobody trusts anybody. Which, in 2026, is basically the foundation of international relations.

#Iran #US #Pakistan #Hormuz #diplomacy

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Vance Is Flying To Islamabad For the Second Round Of Peace Talks

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Vance is flying to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.

Vance will travel with Witkoff, Kushner, the president’s son-in-law – though Iran’s president warned there remained a “deep historical mistrust” of the US.

Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was concerned about “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials” and concluded they amounted to an effort to seek the country’s surrender. “Iranians do not submit to force,” he said.

However, one senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation, amid reports that its delegation would again be headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf if Vance attends.

Ghalibaf said later that Iran would not accept negotiations with the US while under threat, adding in the post on X early on Tuesday that “we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

He also accused Trump of seeking to “turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”

Tehran called for an end to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump repeated a demand that Iran should never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon and even said he would be willing to meet Iranian leaders himself.

Earlier, the US president had confused the situation by telling the New York Post that Vance and his team were “heading over now” and he expected them to be arriving in Islamabad that evening.

That was quickly corrected by US officials who said while there had been a discussion about Vance leaving on Monday, the vice-president was in fact expected to depart on Tuesday morning if the talks were taking place.

A second round of high-stakes discussions to end a war begun by US and Israeli bombing at the end of February could – if they go ahead – take place on Wednesday, with the threat of renewed outbreak of fighting in the background.

Trump said he now considers the two-week ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time”, extending the pause for an extra 24 hours to allow the critical meeting in Islamabad to take place.

Vance led the US team during 21 hours of failed discussions with Iran earlier in the month, which collapsed after Iran would not agree to US demands to end nuclear enrichment and hand over its 440kg of highly enriched uranium.

The Iranians had said there remained a deficit of trust with the US, and wanted assurances they would not be attacked again if a final agreement was reached.

#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon

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Though Iran was intensively bombed during the five-week US-Israel joint campaign, Tehran’s leadership does not believe it has been defeated.

Pakistan has been preparing for possible negotiations since Sunday, setting up a security lockdown and suspending public transport in the capital.

Islamabad’s electricity board also promised that power cuts would be suspended in the city while negotiations continue.

Power cuts lasting six to seven hours a day have become typical in cities across Pakistan as the country grapples with oil and gas shortages caused by the double closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US.

Trump had imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in response to Iran’s decision to charge tolls on merchant shipping crossing the strategic waterway, and on Sunday the US military seized an Iranian-flagged container ship trying to cross, raising concerns an escalation of hostilities would prevent peace talks resuming.

US central command said the Touska had been seized after its crew had ignored six hours of warnings. Its engines were disabled by fire from a US destroyer and it was then captured by marines from the USS Tripoli, arriving by helicopter and roping down on to the merchant vessel.

Though Iran had briefly lifted its own blockade on Friday, it reimposed it again on Saturday because the US would not lift its counter-blockade.

One tanker in the region was attacked by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Saturday and a second container ship was struck by an unknown projectile.

Commercial shipping was once again at a near standstill in the strait. Three tankers made the crossing on Monday – after 18 ships had transited on Saturday – and the price of Brent crude oil was up by $5 to more than $95 on Monday, reflecting the renewed maritime danger.

Israel and Lebanon are due to hold a second round of ambassador level talks in Washington on Thursday, the US state department said, the first discussions between the two countries since a 10-day ceasefire in the theatre was announced last week.

Israel also told residents of southern Lebanon to stay out of a zone of territory next to the border, and warned people not to approach the area of the Litani River, as it sought to consolidate its military grip on the area while the ceasefire is ongoing.

A map posted by the country’s military on social media marked a red line through 21 villages across the south, covering an area 5km to 10km from the border.

#vance #peace #talks #islamabad #iran #lebanon

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