Trump in Beijing: The Failure That Was the Plan
Trump’s Beijing trip wasn’t a diplomatic surprise gone wrong. It was a photo‑op wrapped around a failure everyone could see coming.
He arrived in China with two open wounds: a grinding war with Iran that’s bleeding U.S. money and credibility, and a Russia–Ukraine conflict he promised to “fix in 24 hours” but hasn’t moved an inch. Iran is blocking Hormuz and literally charging tolls per ship.
Russia is dug in, rebuilding its military under sanctions. Both regimes are plugged into a loose triangle with China on energy, trade and arms. That’s the power balance Trump walked into.
Washington wanted two things it wasn’t going to get:
- China leaning hard on Tehran to stop using Hormuz as a weapon;
- China distancing itself from Moscow while the U.S. still needs Russian restraint in Ukraine.
Beijing, meanwhile, sits on a stronger hand: it buys Iranian and Russian energy at a discount, helps them stay afloat under Western sanctions, and quietly coordinates where it suits its interests.
The U.S. comes asking for help in two wars while still running tariffs and tech controls against China. That’s not leverage. That’s begging in slow motion.
In that context, the “negotiations” with Xi could only be theater. The body language tells the story: Trump unusually cautious, visibly less exuberant than with Putin; Xi calm, leaning in, projecting ownership of the script.
Xi drags the conversation up to the level he wants — “Thucydides Trap,” great powers, red lines — and plants his flag on Taiwan: the “most important and sensitive issue,” a non‑negotiable red line, the place where mishandling could trigger open conflict. That’s not a friendly warning. That’s a drawn boundary.
The U.S. side doesn’t echo any of China’s framing. Beijing talks about “constructive strategic stability” — a coded way of saying: two equal centers of power setting the rules for global order.
Washington’s readout, by contrast, stays transactional and tactical: Iran’s nukes, Hormuz shipping, Ukraine, tariffs, trade.
The statements aren’t just different; they’re talking about different worlds. China wants structural recognition as co‑arbiter of the system. Trump wants case‑by‑case favors without paying the systemic price.
No agreements are signed. No concrete mechanisms on Hormuz. No public shift on Chinese links to Iran or Russia. No new framework on Taiwan. Trump still invites Xi to Washington — because he needs to keep the show going, not because this round produced anything real. The visit confirms what was already obvious:
- The Iran war has handed Beijing leverage over U.S. energy security without any cost to China.
- The Russia–Ukraine stalemate has entrenched a strategic triangle in which Beijing can support Moscow just enough to keep the West tied down.
- The U.S. can’t simultaneously squeeze China economically, confront Iran militarily, and force Russia into concessions — and still expect Beijing to play junior partner.
Seen from the outside, the Beijing summit is less about “failure” and more about exposure. It exposes how far U.S. influence has eroded when it comes to dictating terms. It exposes how much Trump’s second‑term strategy relies on performative strength while he walks into rooms where the structural balance has already shifted.
And it exposes, in Xi’s Thucydides‑Trap sermon, that China now feels confident enough to say, in public: if you keep playing the Taiwan card, don’t pretend you weren’t warned about where this leads.
The visit didn’t change the trajectory of any major crisis: Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan all remain live. What it did change is the optics. Trump went to Beijing to prove he still writes the script. He came home having auditioned for a role in Xi’s version instead.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Russia #Taiwan #geopolitics #fakeDiplomacy
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Trump’s Beijing trip wasn’t a diplomatic surprise gone wrong. It was a photo‑op wrapped around a failure everyone could see coming.
He arrived in China with two open wounds: a grinding war with Iran that’s bleeding U.S. money and credibility, and a Russia–Ukraine conflict he promised to “fix in 24 hours” but hasn’t moved an inch. Iran is blocking Hormuz and literally charging tolls per ship.
Russia is dug in, rebuilding its military under sanctions. Both regimes are plugged into a loose triangle with China on energy, trade and arms. That’s the power balance Trump walked into.
Washington wanted two things it wasn’t going to get:
- China leaning hard on Tehran to stop using Hormuz as a weapon;
- China distancing itself from Moscow while the U.S. still needs Russian restraint in Ukraine.
Beijing, meanwhile, sits on a stronger hand: it buys Iranian and Russian energy at a discount, helps them stay afloat under Western sanctions, and quietly coordinates where it suits its interests.
The U.S. comes asking for help in two wars while still running tariffs and tech controls against China. That’s not leverage. That’s begging in slow motion.
In that context, the “negotiations” with Xi could only be theater. The body language tells the story: Trump unusually cautious, visibly less exuberant than with Putin; Xi calm, leaning in, projecting ownership of the script.
Xi drags the conversation up to the level he wants — “Thucydides Trap,” great powers, red lines — and plants his flag on Taiwan: the “most important and sensitive issue,” a non‑negotiable red line, the place where mishandling could trigger open conflict. That’s not a friendly warning. That’s a drawn boundary.
The U.S. side doesn’t echo any of China’s framing. Beijing talks about “constructive strategic stability” — a coded way of saying: two equal centers of power setting the rules for global order.
Washington’s readout, by contrast, stays transactional and tactical: Iran’s nukes, Hormuz shipping, Ukraine, tariffs, trade.
The statements aren’t just different; they’re talking about different worlds. China wants structural recognition as co‑arbiter of the system. Trump wants case‑by‑case favors without paying the systemic price.
No agreements are signed. No concrete mechanisms on Hormuz. No public shift on Chinese links to Iran or Russia. No new framework on Taiwan. Trump still invites Xi to Washington — because he needs to keep the show going, not because this round produced anything real. The visit confirms what was already obvious:
- The Iran war has handed Beijing leverage over U.S. energy security without any cost to China.
- The Russia–Ukraine stalemate has entrenched a strategic triangle in which Beijing can support Moscow just enough to keep the West tied down.
- The U.S. can’t simultaneously squeeze China economically, confront Iran militarily, and force Russia into concessions — and still expect Beijing to play junior partner.
Seen from the outside, the Beijing summit is less about “failure” and more about exposure. It exposes how far U.S. influence has eroded when it comes to dictating terms. It exposes how much Trump’s second‑term strategy relies on performative strength while he walks into rooms where the structural balance has already shifted.
And it exposes, in Xi’s Thucydides‑Trap sermon, that China now feels confident enough to say, in public: if you keep playing the Taiwan card, don’t pretend you weren’t warned about where this leads.
The visit didn’t change the trajectory of any major crisis: Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan all remain live. What it did change is the optics. Trump went to Beijing to prove he still writes the script. He came home having auditioned for a role in Xi’s version instead.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Russia #Taiwan #geopolitics #fakeDiplomacy
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Trump in Beijing: Tone Shift, Same Void
Trump softened his tone in Beijing, but the strategic ledger barely moved.
He played the respectful visitor, leaned into personal chemistry, called Xi a friend and talked up a “pretty historic couple days.” The visuals were flawless: Tiananmen ceremony, banquets, a stroll through Zhongnanhai, rose seeds for the White House garden.
But behind that spectacle, the core problems he claimed to be there to solve — Iran, Hormuz, Taiwan, trade — remain almost exactly where they were.
On Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Trump insisted that he and Xi “feel very similar,” that they both want the war to end and the strait reopened, and that China “automatically” will pressure Tehran because it needs the energy flows.
At the same time, he bragged that he never explicitly asked Xi for help “because I don’t need favors.” Beijing’s side declined to acknowledge any concrete commitment on Hormuz. It’s hard to call that diplomacy; it’s closer to wishful thinking wrapped in bravado.
Trade and investment follow the same pattern. U.S. officials brief that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets, ramp up investment, purchase more American farm goods and energy.
Trump calls the deals “fantastic.” Beijing, which still hasn’t fully delivered on earlier pledges to him, doesn’t publicly confirm the new ones. The gap between what Washington sells as a win and what Beijing is actually on the hook for keeps widening.
Taiwan is where the tonal shift becomes dangerous. Xi uses the summit to warn that decades of U.S. strategic ambiguity and any move toward Taiwanese independence are steering both countries toward a collision.
Trump admits they talked about Taiwan “a lot.” He says he heard Xi out, made “no commitment,” dodged a direct answer when asked if the U.S. would defend the island, and punts on already approved arms sales by promising a decision “in the fairly short period” after talking to Taiwan’s leader.
That’s not clarity; it’s a live reminder to Taipei and Beijing that U.S. resolve is negotiable in real time.
Even the security choreography underscores the mistrust. The moment Air Force One leaves Chinese airspace, U.S. staff dump Chinese‑issued badges, pins and keepsakes into a bag with disposable phones and jettison them off the plane.
Publicly: reset, goodwill, trust. Privately: assume every object is a sensor and every interaction is a data point.
All of this lands in a feed that’s already run two strong pieces on the same summit. This third pass shifts the camera in tighter: less on structures and markets, more on tone and outcomes.
That kind of narrowing can work, but it also risks over‑weighting one event at the expense of other moving fronts — Iran’s war trajectory, Taiwan’s security calculus, Ukraine’s stalemate — that are shaped by the same summit but not exhausted by it. The language here does its job; the pacing across posts is where the redundancy creeps in.
Trump changed the music in Beijing. He didn’t change the math. Xi leaves with the same leverage on Iran, the same red lines on Taiwan, the same options on trade and AI — and the added benefit of an American president on record sounding less like a commander and more like a guest who badly wants to call the visit a success.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Taiwan #Boeing #AI #diplomacy
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Trump softened his tone in Beijing, but the strategic ledger barely moved.
He played the respectful visitor, leaned into personal chemistry, called Xi a friend and talked up a “pretty historic couple days.” The visuals were flawless: Tiananmen ceremony, banquets, a stroll through Zhongnanhai, rose seeds for the White House garden.
But behind that spectacle, the core problems he claimed to be there to solve — Iran, Hormuz, Taiwan, trade — remain almost exactly where they were.
On Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Trump insisted that he and Xi “feel very similar,” that they both want the war to end and the strait reopened, and that China “automatically” will pressure Tehran because it needs the energy flows.
At the same time, he bragged that he never explicitly asked Xi for help “because I don’t need favors.” Beijing’s side declined to acknowledge any concrete commitment on Hormuz. It’s hard to call that diplomacy; it’s closer to wishful thinking wrapped in bravado.
Trade and investment follow the same pattern. U.S. officials brief that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets, ramp up investment, purchase more American farm goods and energy.
Trump calls the deals “fantastic.” Beijing, which still hasn’t fully delivered on earlier pledges to him, doesn’t publicly confirm the new ones. The gap between what Washington sells as a win and what Beijing is actually on the hook for keeps widening.
Taiwan is where the tonal shift becomes dangerous. Xi uses the summit to warn that decades of U.S. strategic ambiguity and any move toward Taiwanese independence are steering both countries toward a collision.
Trump admits they talked about Taiwan “a lot.” He says he heard Xi out, made “no commitment,” dodged a direct answer when asked if the U.S. would defend the island, and punts on already approved arms sales by promising a decision “in the fairly short period” after talking to Taiwan’s leader.
That’s not clarity; it’s a live reminder to Taipei and Beijing that U.S. resolve is negotiable in real time.
Even the security choreography underscores the mistrust. The moment Air Force One leaves Chinese airspace, U.S. staff dump Chinese‑issued badges, pins and keepsakes into a bag with disposable phones and jettison them off the plane.
Publicly: reset, goodwill, trust. Privately: assume every object is a sensor and every interaction is a data point.
All of this lands in a feed that’s already run two strong pieces on the same summit. This third pass shifts the camera in tighter: less on structures and markets, more on tone and outcomes.
That kind of narrowing can work, but it also risks over‑weighting one event at the expense of other moving fronts — Iran’s war trajectory, Taiwan’s security calculus, Ukraine’s stalemate — that are shaped by the same summit but not exhausted by it. The language here does its job; the pacing across posts is where the redundancy creeps in.
Trump changed the music in Beijing. He didn’t change the math. Xi leaves with the same leverage on Iran, the same red lines on Taiwan, the same options on trade and AI — and the added benefit of an American president on record sounding less like a commander and more like a guest who badly wants to call the visit a success.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Taiwan #Boeing #AI #diplomacy
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The War Against the US: Cuba Is Ready
Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana.
The intelligence — which could become a pretext for U.S. military action — shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat because of developments in drone warfare and the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana, a senior U.S. official said.
"When we think about those types of technologies being that close, and a range of bad actors from terror groups to drug cartels to Iranians to the Russians, it's concerning," the official said.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and bluntly warned officials there against engaging in hostilities. He also urged them to scrap their totalitarian government to end crippling U.S. sanctions.
"Director Ratcliffe made clear that Cuba can no longer serve as a platform for adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere," that official said.
On Wednesday, the Department of Justice plans to unseal an indictment of Cuba's de facto leader, Raúl Castro, for allegedly ordering the 1996 downing of two planes flown by a Miami-based aid group called Brothers to the Rescue.
More sanctions targeting the island nation could be announced this week.
Cuba has been acquiring attack drones of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023, and has stashed them in strategic locations across the island, U.S. officials say.
Within the past month, Cuban officials have sought more drones and military equipment from Russia, the senior U.S. official said.
The official cited intelligence intercepts that also indicated Cuban intelligence officials are "trying to learn about how Iran has resisted us."
#cuba #drones #war #us #ratcliffe
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Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana.
The intelligence — which could become a pretext for U.S. military action — shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat because of developments in drone warfare and the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana, a senior U.S. official said.
"When we think about those types of technologies being that close, and a range of bad actors from terror groups to drug cartels to Iranians to the Russians, it's concerning," the official said.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and bluntly warned officials there against engaging in hostilities. He also urged them to scrap their totalitarian government to end crippling U.S. sanctions.
"Director Ratcliffe made clear that Cuba can no longer serve as a platform for adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere," that official said.
On Wednesday, the Department of Justice plans to unseal an indictment of Cuba's de facto leader, Raúl Castro, for allegedly ordering the 1996 downing of two planes flown by a Miami-based aid group called Brothers to the Rescue.
More sanctions targeting the island nation could be announced this week.
Cuba has been acquiring attack drones of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023, and has stashed them in strategic locations across the island, U.S. officials say.
Within the past month, Cuban officials have sought more drones and military equipment from Russia, the senior U.S. official said.
The official cited intelligence intercepts that also indicated Cuban intelligence officials are "trying to learn about how Iran has resisted us."
#cuba #drones #war #us #ratcliffe
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Pageantry Over Policy: Trump’s Beijing Performance Review
Trump went to Beijing needing a win. He came home with good visuals, disciplined messaging, and the same problems he left with.
For two days he played the role his staff begged him to stick to: on script, deferential, no surprise rants in front of the Great Hall cameras.
He praised Xi, called the visit “pretty historic,” walked the manicured paths of Zhongnanhai and toasted “cooperation” at a state dinner. The pageantry worked on its own terms. It did not translate into policy.
On Iran, the war that is torching his approval ratings, he publicly claimed alignment with Xi — same view on stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions, same desire to reopen Hormuz — while insisting he never actually asked China for help “because I don’t need favors.”
Beijing, unsurprisingly, declined to advertise any promise to pressure Tehran. The only concrete hint from Trump was that he might ease sanctions on Chinese refineries doing business with Iran, effectively dangling relief in exchange for undefined cooperation. That’s not a breakthrough; it’s a vague IOU.
On trade, he hyped Chinese purchases of Boeing jets, beef, farm goods, and energy as “fantastic” deals. Markets were unimpressed. The reported 200‑plane Boeing order was smaller than pre‑summit chatter, soy futures fell when no specific ag package appeared, and Beijing didn’t publicly confirm most of what Trump claimed.
There was talk of new joint “boards” to manage trade and investment, but no joint statement, no shared fact sheet, and no extension of the existing trade truce. Even the choreography said “minimalist”: unlike 2017, no coordinated press appearance, no mutually agreed narrative.
On Taiwan, the strategy was silence. Xi used private talks to warn that mishandling the issue could push U.S.–China ties to a “dangerous place” and asked Trump directly whether Washington would defend the island. Trump’s answer — “I don’t talk about that” — kept the label of “strategic ambiguity” while sounding more like personal hesitation than calculated doctrine.
He refused to commit on already approved arms sales, saying he’d decide “over the next fairly short period” after speaking with Taiwan’s leader. For Taipei, that reads as a wobble, not a reassurance.
The one genuinely new element was tone. This was a disciplined Trump, sticking to prepared text in a capital that does not tolerate improvisation.
Xi responded with his usual mix of hospitality and warning: friendship gestures, sharp lines about the stakes, and the line that “we must make it work and never mess it up” — a reminder that Beijing sees the relationship as both essential and fragile, and expects Washington to internalize that.
Back home, nothing fundamental has shifted. Gas prices are still high, inflation still stings, and the Iran war still dominates his political horizon. The trip provided a news cycle’s worth of “reset” imagery, but little evidence that China has tied itself to concrete steps on Iran, trade, or Taiwan.
The power dynamics that brought Trump to Beijing — a U.S. president under pressure, facing wars and economic headwinds, and a Chinese leadership in no hurry to bail him out — are still in place.
Trump got a rare, disciplined turn on the world stage and a carefully choreographed show of respect. Xi got exactly what he wanted: a calm summit, no major concessions, and a U.S. president who left Beijing talking about tone instead of terms.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Taiwan #trade #AI #diplomacy
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Trump went to Beijing needing a win. He came home with good visuals, disciplined messaging, and the same problems he left with.
For two days he played the role his staff begged him to stick to: on script, deferential, no surprise rants in front of the Great Hall cameras.
He praised Xi, called the visit “pretty historic,” walked the manicured paths of Zhongnanhai and toasted “cooperation” at a state dinner. The pageantry worked on its own terms. It did not translate into policy.
On Iran, the war that is torching his approval ratings, he publicly claimed alignment with Xi — same view on stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions, same desire to reopen Hormuz — while insisting he never actually asked China for help “because I don’t need favors.”
Beijing, unsurprisingly, declined to advertise any promise to pressure Tehran. The only concrete hint from Trump was that he might ease sanctions on Chinese refineries doing business with Iran, effectively dangling relief in exchange for undefined cooperation. That’s not a breakthrough; it’s a vague IOU.
On trade, he hyped Chinese purchases of Boeing jets, beef, farm goods, and energy as “fantastic” deals. Markets were unimpressed. The reported 200‑plane Boeing order was smaller than pre‑summit chatter, soy futures fell when no specific ag package appeared, and Beijing didn’t publicly confirm most of what Trump claimed.
There was talk of new joint “boards” to manage trade and investment, but no joint statement, no shared fact sheet, and no extension of the existing trade truce. Even the choreography said “minimalist”: unlike 2017, no coordinated press appearance, no mutually agreed narrative.
On Taiwan, the strategy was silence. Xi used private talks to warn that mishandling the issue could push U.S.–China ties to a “dangerous place” and asked Trump directly whether Washington would defend the island. Trump’s answer — “I don’t talk about that” — kept the label of “strategic ambiguity” while sounding more like personal hesitation than calculated doctrine.
He refused to commit on already approved arms sales, saying he’d decide “over the next fairly short period” after speaking with Taiwan’s leader. For Taipei, that reads as a wobble, not a reassurance.
The one genuinely new element was tone. This was a disciplined Trump, sticking to prepared text in a capital that does not tolerate improvisation.
Xi responded with his usual mix of hospitality and warning: friendship gestures, sharp lines about the stakes, and the line that “we must make it work and never mess it up” — a reminder that Beijing sees the relationship as both essential and fragile, and expects Washington to internalize that.
Back home, nothing fundamental has shifted. Gas prices are still high, inflation still stings, and the Iran war still dominates his political horizon. The trip provided a news cycle’s worth of “reset” imagery, but little evidence that China has tied itself to concrete steps on Iran, trade, or Taiwan.
The power dynamics that brought Trump to Beijing — a U.S. president under pressure, facing wars and economic headwinds, and a Chinese leadership in no hurry to bail him out — are still in place.
Trump got a rare, disciplined turn on the world stage and a carefully choreographed show of respect. Xi got exactly what he wanted: a calm summit, no major concessions, and a U.S. president who left Beijing talking about tone instead of terms.
#Trump #Xi #China #Iran #Taiwan #trade #AI #diplomacy
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How Trump Lost His Meeting With Xi Jinping
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Though Trump said Xi “discussed almost everything,” their superpower summit here this week produced no real agreements and concluded with just a handful of measurable outcomes.
Instead, each side lavished praise upon its counterpart and appeared to count the level-setting as an important step toward stabilizing the relationship.
“Neither side moved on the issues that matter most,” Craig Singleton, the China program senior director and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a statement.
“Technology, Taiwan, Iran, rare earths, and supply-chain dependence remain unresolved. The summit helped manage the moment, but the underlying contest now returns to the same pressure points.”
Among those pressure points is Taiwan, with Xi warning of “clashes and even conflicts” with the United States over the issue if not handled “properly.” While not new, the force of Beijing’s warnings showed how sensitive the issue has become for China, with Xi framing it as the most important issue in U.S.-China relations, according to a Chinese readout of the meeting.
Trump later told reporters that he discussed arms sales to Taiwan “in great detail” with Xi and would make a decision about a long-delayed $14 bn package “shortly.”
Trump’s repeated comments about discussing those arms sales with Xi have alarmed Taiwan supporters, with some experts saying that would violate longstanding U.S. policy prohibiting such consultations.
Trump said it was Xi who raised the issue of arms sales in their discussions: “What am I going to say? I don’t want to talk to you about it, because I have an agreement that was signed in 1982?”
He said he declined to answer when Xi asked whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, in keeping with another longstanding U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” but that “the last thing we need right now is war 9,500 miles away.”
For China, the talks highlighted another pressing question of whether the status quo on trade with Washington could hold after the two sides struck a truce last year.
One thing they didn’t discuss, Trump said, was a reduction in tariffs.
Beijing faces its own long-standing economic problems, including high youth unemployment, weak consumer demand and concerns about how long it can withstand energy shocks from the Iran war.
“The Chinese have realized that nothing they can do is going to change the approach of the U.S. trade policy for the next couple of years, and so what they are focused on is trying to come to some arrangement where they can survive without suffering a major economic hardship,” said a former senior Trump administration trade official, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about a sensitive dynamic.
This person continued: “Trump clearly is not in the mood to make concessions, and if you look at the arc of his decision-making, he goes through periods of being less stubborn. That doesn’t seem to be the situation we’re in now.”
The ongoing war with Iran, for whom China remains an important partner, loomed over the visit, and Trump said he will make a decision over the next few days on whether to lift sanctions on Chinese oil companies that buy Iranian oil.
Separately, he reiterated his maximalist view of the negotiations on Iran, telling Fox News that failure to come to the table on a nuclear agreement would result in “annihilation.”
Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar at the Heritage Foundation, said that going into the meetings with China, Trump had made a deliberate choice to hold off on ultimatums to keep the dialogue open.
“Trump has portrayed everything as ‘a talk,’ which is much easier for the Chinese to go along with than if he said, ‘I’m coming to cut something off,’” Pillsbury said.
The approach, he said, was a departure from Trump’s first-term posture, and the two leaders discussed how they could meet three more times this year, during a state visit in Washington, at the G20 and at APEC.
#trump #china
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Though Trump said Xi “discussed almost everything,” their superpower summit here this week produced no real agreements and concluded with just a handful of measurable outcomes.
Instead, each side lavished praise upon its counterpart and appeared to count the level-setting as an important step toward stabilizing the relationship.
“Neither side moved on the issues that matter most,” Craig Singleton, the China program senior director and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a statement.
“Technology, Taiwan, Iran, rare earths, and supply-chain dependence remain unresolved. The summit helped manage the moment, but the underlying contest now returns to the same pressure points.”
Among those pressure points is Taiwan, with Xi warning of “clashes and even conflicts” with the United States over the issue if not handled “properly.” While not new, the force of Beijing’s warnings showed how sensitive the issue has become for China, with Xi framing it as the most important issue in U.S.-China relations, according to a Chinese readout of the meeting.
Trump later told reporters that he discussed arms sales to Taiwan “in great detail” with Xi and would make a decision about a long-delayed $14 bn package “shortly.”
Trump’s repeated comments about discussing those arms sales with Xi have alarmed Taiwan supporters, with some experts saying that would violate longstanding U.S. policy prohibiting such consultations.
Trump said it was Xi who raised the issue of arms sales in their discussions: “What am I going to say? I don’t want to talk to you about it, because I have an agreement that was signed in 1982?”
He said he declined to answer when Xi asked whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, in keeping with another longstanding U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” but that “the last thing we need right now is war 9,500 miles away.”
For China, the talks highlighted another pressing question of whether the status quo on trade with Washington could hold after the two sides struck a truce last year.
One thing they didn’t discuss, Trump said, was a reduction in tariffs.
Beijing faces its own long-standing economic problems, including high youth unemployment, weak consumer demand and concerns about how long it can withstand energy shocks from the Iran war.
“The Chinese have realized that nothing they can do is going to change the approach of the U.S. trade policy for the next couple of years, and so what they are focused on is trying to come to some arrangement where they can survive without suffering a major economic hardship,” said a former senior Trump administration trade official, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about a sensitive dynamic.
This person continued: “Trump clearly is not in the mood to make concessions, and if you look at the arc of his decision-making, he goes through periods of being less stubborn. That doesn’t seem to be the situation we’re in now.”
The ongoing war with Iran, for whom China remains an important partner, loomed over the visit, and Trump said he will make a decision over the next few days on whether to lift sanctions on Chinese oil companies that buy Iranian oil.
Separately, he reiterated his maximalist view of the negotiations on Iran, telling Fox News that failure to come to the table on a nuclear agreement would result in “annihilation.”
Michael Pillsbury, a China scholar at the Heritage Foundation, said that going into the meetings with China, Trump had made a deliberate choice to hold off on ultimatums to keep the dialogue open.
“Trump has portrayed everything as ‘a talk,’ which is much easier for the Chinese to go along with than if he said, ‘I’m coming to cut something off,’” Pillsbury said.
The approach, he said, was a departure from Trump’s first-term posture, and the two leaders discussed how they could meet three more times this year, during a state visit in Washington, at the G20 and at APEC.
#trump #china
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“When Donald Trump made his first official state visit to China nearly a decade ago, its overall power lagged far behind that of the United States,” agreed Comfort Ero, the president and CEO of International Crisis Group, speaking in a briefing. Now, “Trump says that the two countries constitute a ‘G2.’
Military officials already consider China an equal — and the Pentagon’s national defense strategy contends that it is the most powerful competitor that Washington has faced since the 19th century.”
Xi referenced the new dynamic ahead of the talks, invoking the Thucydides Trap, which suggests a tendency toward conflict when a rising power threatens an existing one.
Trump, in his first Truth Social post from China, sought to gloss over that rhetoric. Xi had “very elegantly” referred to the United States “as perhaps being a declining nation,” Trump wrote and offered some of his own analysis: Xi, he said, “was referring to the tremendous damage” inflicted during the administration of his predecessor Biden.
He added that Xi congratulated him on “many tremendous successes in such a short period of time.”
The shift in the balance of power underpinned the week, as did an agreement, forged when Trump and Xi met last year in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, for a one-year moratorium on export licenses for rare-earth minerals. The two sides also finalized a trade truce at the time, after Trump hiked tariffs on goods from China as high as 145%.
The former Trump administration official said that despite investments to bolster domestic extraction and refining of rare-earth materials, U.S. efforts have been slow to get off the ground.
“The Chinese are not in a position to come to agreements about the future of critical minerals, which is really one of their principal levers of power,” the official said.
Extending that moratorium would be a major win for Trump, though White House officials declined to signal whether they anticipated any developments in Beijing.
“All the Chinese have to do is say, ‘Look, we’re going to let this stuff exit our fortress,’” the former official said.
“It doesn’t even have to be said directly. It can just be, ‘Oh, we’re gonna revisit the question.’ Everyone knows what they mean.”
On Friday, the two-day summit concluded with commitments announced by Trump for purchases of 200 Boeing aircraft, with a tentative promise that the order could be even higher if it goes well.
He said they also made a deal for China to buy “billions of dollars” of soybeans.
Trump said he also raised the case of Jimmy Lai, 78, the Hong Kong pro-democracy publisher who was sentenced to 20 years in prison earlier this year after being convicted on national security charges, with no result. China says Lai, who pleaded not guilty, was the “mastermind” behind anti-government protests that roiled the Chinese territory for months in 2019.
Trump said Friday that he did not want to ask Xi for any favors “because when you ask for favors, you have to do favors in return,” but that the two agreed the war needed to come to an end. And, he noted to Fox News, Xi promised not to give military equipment to Tehran.
Washington’s readout said that Xi had voiced interest in purchasing American oil, a development that, if realized, would reduce Beijing’s appetite for Iranian oil and deal a potential economic blow to Tehran, as China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil.
Pillsbury said Trump’s decision to bring his defense secretary on the trip — something he did not do in 2017 — suggests a failed strategy to demonstrate to China a level of trust in what the U.S. is doing now with Iran and plans to do in the future.
#trump #china #meeting #xi
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U.S.–Iran Talks: 14-Point Theater, Zero Trust
Washington and Tehran are trading 14‑point documents and talking about “confidence‑building.” In practice, both sides are just haggling over oil, frozen cash, and who gets to call it a victory.
Iran’s latest text, sent via Pakistani mediation, again runs to 14 clauses and focuses on ending the war and forcing “trust‑building steps” from the U.S. It demands a full end to the war, full lifting of sanctions, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for U.S. strikes.
The nuclear file is pushed to “later stages,” wrapped in generic talk about Iran’s rights under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty – with no specifics on enriched uranium, inspections, or timelines. Western officials read that as a promise with no teeth.
The American counter‑offer is deliberately narrower. According to leaks from the Iranian side, Washington is prepared to temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil during talks and unfreeze around 25% of Tehran’s blocked assets on a fixed schedule, while Iran demands everything, permanently.
U.S. nuclear demands are dismissed in Tehran as “political excuses,” and any attempt to link an end to the war with binding nuclear limits is branded “illogical.”
Inside Iran’s own media ecosystem, the verdict is brutal. Sources close to the delegation call the U.S. position “greedy and unrealistic,” insist that frozen assets must “clearly and finally” return, and treat talk of a development fund as an insult to the scale of destruction.
Commentators in the Arab‑language space sum up the whole 14‑point exchange in two words: empty nonsense.
The pattern matches broader coverage of U.S.–Iran contacts since the war began: rounds of talks described as “constructive,” but no real breakthrough, just more time burned while the blockade and sanctions stay in place.
On paper, it looks like diplomacy. In substance, it’s a very expensive argument over money and face, dressed up as a peace process.
#US #Iran #war #sanctions #Hormuz #diplomacy
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Washington and Tehran are trading 14‑point documents and talking about “confidence‑building.” In practice, both sides are just haggling over oil, frozen cash, and who gets to call it a victory.
Iran’s latest text, sent via Pakistani mediation, again runs to 14 clauses and focuses on ending the war and forcing “trust‑building steps” from the U.S. It demands a full end to the war, full lifting of sanctions, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for U.S. strikes.
The nuclear file is pushed to “later stages,” wrapped in generic talk about Iran’s rights under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty – with no specifics on enriched uranium, inspections, or timelines. Western officials read that as a promise with no teeth.
The American counter‑offer is deliberately narrower. According to leaks from the Iranian side, Washington is prepared to temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil during talks and unfreeze around 25% of Tehran’s blocked assets on a fixed schedule, while Iran demands everything, permanently.
U.S. nuclear demands are dismissed in Tehran as “political excuses,” and any attempt to link an end to the war with binding nuclear limits is branded “illogical.”
Inside Iran’s own media ecosystem, the verdict is brutal. Sources close to the delegation call the U.S. position “greedy and unrealistic,” insist that frozen assets must “clearly and finally” return, and treat talk of a development fund as an insult to the scale of destruction.
Commentators in the Arab‑language space sum up the whole 14‑point exchange in two words: empty nonsense.
The pattern matches broader coverage of U.S.–Iran contacts since the war began: rounds of talks described as “constructive,” but no real breakthrough, just more time burned while the blockade and sanctions stay in place.
On paper, it looks like diplomacy. In substance, it’s a very expensive argument over money and face, dressed up as a peace process.
#US #Iran #war #sanctions #Hormuz #diplomacy
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Trump is openly putting a clock on Iran and quietly putting the Pentagon back on a war footing.
While negotiators swap 14‑point documents, U.S. and Israeli militaries are doing the opposite of de‑escalation.
According to reports based on U.S. and regional officials, the Pentagon has drawn up options to resume strikes on Iran within days, with American and Israeli forces engaged in the most intensive preparations since the ceasefire began.
Two Middle Eastern sources told the New York Times that the current force posture — carriers, bombers, and tens of thousands of U.S. troops in theater — is calibrated so that “Operation Epic Rage” could be switched back on at short notice.
Trump is signaling exactly that. CNN reports he spent Saturday huddling with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and special envoy Steve Witkoff to review the war track and Pentagon strike plans.
U.S. officials quoted by Arab and Israeli outlets say his patience with Iran’s bargaining tactics is “running out,” and that Tehran has “days, not weeks” to move off maximalist demands before military options return to the front of the table. Lindsey Graham, never one to underplay, is already marketing the idea of a “short but powerful strike” to “reset” the conflict — as if a region‑wide war can be rebooted like a frozen app.
On the home front, the numbers are ugly. A New York Times poll cited in multiple reports says roughly two‑thirds of Americans now believe the decision to go to war with Iran was a mistake. Gas and inflation remain high, and Trump’s political advisers know another round of strikes could deepen the backlash even as they promise a clean, limited hit.
Treasury, for its part, is still urging G7 allies to keep sanctions tight to starve what it calls Iran’s “war machine,” even as Washington dangles partial sanctions relief in the secret 14‑point correspondence.
The Arab desk you quoted as “kharta b’pita” has a point. Publicly, it’s 24‑, 48‑, 72‑hour ultimatums and “last chances.” Privately, it’s force deployments, war plans and a president who likes to threaten “days, not weeks” while his own electorate is already telling pollsters the first round was a mistake.
#US #Iran #war #Trump #Pentagon #Hormuz #sanctions #diplomacy
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While negotiators swap 14‑point documents, U.S. and Israeli militaries are doing the opposite of de‑escalation.
According to reports based on U.S. and regional officials, the Pentagon has drawn up options to resume strikes on Iran within days, with American and Israeli forces engaged in the most intensive preparations since the ceasefire began.
Two Middle Eastern sources told the New York Times that the current force posture — carriers, bombers, and tens of thousands of U.S. troops in theater — is calibrated so that “Operation Epic Rage” could be switched back on at short notice.
Trump is signaling exactly that. CNN reports he spent Saturday huddling with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and special envoy Steve Witkoff to review the war track and Pentagon strike plans.
U.S. officials quoted by Arab and Israeli outlets say his patience with Iran’s bargaining tactics is “running out,” and that Tehran has “days, not weeks” to move off maximalist demands before military options return to the front of the table. Lindsey Graham, never one to underplay, is already marketing the idea of a “short but powerful strike” to “reset” the conflict — as if a region‑wide war can be rebooted like a frozen app.
On the home front, the numbers are ugly. A New York Times poll cited in multiple reports says roughly two‑thirds of Americans now believe the decision to go to war with Iran was a mistake. Gas and inflation remain high, and Trump’s political advisers know another round of strikes could deepen the backlash even as they promise a clean, limited hit.
Treasury, for its part, is still urging G7 allies to keep sanctions tight to starve what it calls Iran’s “war machine,” even as Washington dangles partial sanctions relief in the secret 14‑point correspondence.
The Arab desk you quoted as “kharta b’pita” has a point. Publicly, it’s 24‑, 48‑, 72‑hour ultimatums and “last chances.” Privately, it’s force deployments, war plans and a president who likes to threaten “days, not weeks” while his own electorate is already telling pollsters the first round was a mistake.
#US #Iran #war #Trump #Pentagon #Hormuz #sanctions #diplomacy
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Germany’s Budget: Champagne Politics on Maxed-Out Credit
Germany likes to lecture half of Europe on “fiscal discipline” while quietly running its own public finances like a prestige‑obsessed startup burning investor cash.
Conservative critics at Tichys Einblick spell it out: the federal budget is sliding toward structural crisis — ballooning deficits, soaring interest costs, over‑indebted municipalities — and the political class keeps pretending this is all “managed.”
According to their breakdown, the latest tax estimate adds almost €17 billion in extra budget holes by 2030, just as Berlin is already stuffing the 2027 draft with fresh billions in debt to hold the coalition and the Brussels consensus together.
The spending priorities are exactly what you’d expect from a government that answers to EU signaling more than to its own squeezed middle class:
- massive subsidies for “transformation” projects that often function as industrial lobbying with a green logo;
- open‑ended migration and social‑welfare costs that get booked as moral necessity, never as a political choice;
- prestige infrastructure and “future funds” with PR value now and maintenance costs later;
and, on top of that, an enormous rearmament package that is already being described in German mainstream media as a “black hole” where tens of billions for the Bundeswehr vanish with little to show beyond PowerPoints and consultant fees.
Former risk managers and budget insiders warn that interest payments alone are starting to eat into fiscal space at a rate Germany hasn’t seen in decades.
Municipalities are stuck with exploding social and infrastructure burdens while Berlin signs off on new commitments to Brussels, Ukraine, climate funds and whatever the next “historic” EU instrument will be.
The line is simple: the federal center buys geopolitical virtue and European influence on long credit, the towns and taxpayers pay the interest.
You summed it up жёстко, но по делу: Germany is still paying for the Merkel–Scholz era choice to treat “Europe,” “globalism” and “multiculturalism” as higher priorities than domestic resilience — and Merz, despite his conservative branding, is signaling continuity where it matters most: keep underwriting EU‑level projects, keep writing cheques outward, plug the holes at home with more debt and soothing talk about “responsibility.”
In that model, Germans don’t get a sovereign, hard‑nosed budget debate. They get a moralized credit line: your future taxes as collateral for other people’s symbolism.
#Germany #budget #debt #EU #Merz #migration #subsidies
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Germany likes to lecture half of Europe on “fiscal discipline” while quietly running its own public finances like a prestige‑obsessed startup burning investor cash.
Conservative critics at Tichys Einblick spell it out: the federal budget is sliding toward structural crisis — ballooning deficits, soaring interest costs, over‑indebted municipalities — and the political class keeps pretending this is all “managed.”
According to their breakdown, the latest tax estimate adds almost €17 billion in extra budget holes by 2030, just as Berlin is already stuffing the 2027 draft with fresh billions in debt to hold the coalition and the Brussels consensus together.
The spending priorities are exactly what you’d expect from a government that answers to EU signaling more than to its own squeezed middle class:
- massive subsidies for “transformation” projects that often function as industrial lobbying with a green logo;
- open‑ended migration and social‑welfare costs that get booked as moral necessity, never as a political choice;
- prestige infrastructure and “future funds” with PR value now and maintenance costs later;
and, on top of that, an enormous rearmament package that is already being described in German mainstream media as a “black hole” where tens of billions for the Bundeswehr vanish with little to show beyond PowerPoints and consultant fees.
Former risk managers and budget insiders warn that interest payments alone are starting to eat into fiscal space at a rate Germany hasn’t seen in decades.
Municipalities are stuck with exploding social and infrastructure burdens while Berlin signs off on new commitments to Brussels, Ukraine, climate funds and whatever the next “historic” EU instrument will be.
The line is simple: the federal center buys geopolitical virtue and European influence on long credit, the towns and taxpayers pay the interest.
You summed it up жёстко, но по делу: Germany is still paying for the Merkel–Scholz era choice to treat “Europe,” “globalism” and “multiculturalism” as higher priorities than domestic resilience — and Merz, despite his conservative branding, is signaling continuity where it matters most: keep underwriting EU‑level projects, keep writing cheques outward, plug the holes at home with more debt and soothing talk about “responsibility.”
In that model, Germans don’t get a sovereign, hard‑nosed budget debate. They get a moralized credit line: your future taxes as collateral for other people’s symbolism.
#Germany #budget #debt #EU #Merz #migration #subsidies
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Trump Has Taken a Tumble in the Hormuz Tug of War
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
Iran has made a new proposal for a deal to definitively end the war in the Middle East, officials in the region said on Monday, with Trump claiming he had postponed new military strikes so talks could continue.
But while the US president has regularly used social media to threaten Tehran, and to claim that a peace deal was within reach, there has been no sign of an immediate breakthrough in the stalled negotiations to end the war.
A ceasefire has paused most violence after six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian retaliation, but there has been little progress since Trump said the ceasefire was “on life support”, with some Israeli media reports suggesting a resumption of hostilities is imminent.
In a post on Monday, Trump said he had been asked by the leaders of several Gulf countries to “hold off on our planned Military attack [on Iran], which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place”.
Trump claimed that the leaders of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia had approached Washington because of the chance of reaching a deal that would be “very acceptable” to the US, and preclude Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The US president said he had instructed military leaders that “we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice”.
The announcement came as Iran’s foreign military spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, claimed Pakistan has shared Tehran’s latest proposal with the US.
There were contradictory reports from Islamabad, which has been mediating between both sides. A Pakistani source appeared pessimistic, telling Reuters that Washington and Tehran “keep changing their goalposts” and that time was running out to find agreement.
Other regional officials said Iran had made or reiterated some concessions, including a long-term suspension of its nuclear programme and transfer of its highly enriched uranium to Russia, as well as a phased reopening of the strait of Hormuz.
#trump #iran #proposal #teheran #congrès
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Iran has made a new proposal for a deal to definitively end the war in the Middle East, officials in the region said on Monday, with Trump claiming he had postponed new military strikes so talks could continue.
But while the US president has regularly used social media to threaten Tehran, and to claim that a peace deal was within reach, there has been no sign of an immediate breakthrough in the stalled negotiations to end the war.
A ceasefire has paused most violence after six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian retaliation, but there has been little progress since Trump said the ceasefire was “on life support”, with some Israeli media reports suggesting a resumption of hostilities is imminent.
In a post on Monday, Trump said he had been asked by the leaders of several Gulf countries to “hold off on our planned Military attack [on Iran], which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place”.
Trump claimed that the leaders of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia had approached Washington because of the chance of reaching a deal that would be “very acceptable” to the US, and preclude Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The US president said he had instructed military leaders that “we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice”.
The announcement came as Iran’s foreign military spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, claimed Pakistan has shared Tehran’s latest proposal with the US.
There were contradictory reports from Islamabad, which has been mediating between both sides. A Pakistani source appeared pessimistic, telling Reuters that Washington and Tehran “keep changing their goalposts” and that time was running out to find agreement.
Other regional officials said Iran had made or reiterated some concessions, including a long-term suspension of its nuclear programme and transfer of its highly enriched uranium to Russia, as well as a phased reopening of the strait of Hormuz.
#trump #iran #proposal #teheran #congrès
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The semi-official Tasnim news agency, citing an unnamed source close to the country’s negotiation team, reported on Monday that the US had agreed to waive sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports during the negotiation period.
There was no independent confirmation of the claims, and talks have been marked by a series of misleading statements made by Iran, the US and mediators to try to publicly frame the talks to their advantage.
Rhetoric on both sides has remained defiant in recent days. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened on Monday to impose permits on internet cables passing through the strait of Hormuz, while other officials have said the waterway would remain under Iranian “management”, implying Tehran would impose tolls on shipping, which Washington has said it cannot accept.
Baghaei said Tehran was prepared for all scenarios, telling a televised press conference: “As for their threats, rest assured that we are fully aware of how to respond appropriately to even the smallest mistake from the opposing side.”
Axios reported that Trump was expected to meet national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for resuming military action.
But speaking later on Monday at a White House event, Trump said there had been a “very positive development” and claimed a deal was near that would leave Iran without nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies pursuing.
“There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I’d be very happy,” Trump said.
Though US-Israeli airstrikes have ceased and Iranian retaliation has been scaled back, drones have been launched from Iran towards Gulf countries hosting US military bases.
One drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, officials there said on Sunday, and Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones.
Iran stepped up attacks on the UAE this month after Trump announced a naval mission to try to open the strait of Hormuz, which he suspended after 48 hours.
Analysts say the conflict is now deadlocked, with both sides facing significant pressure to bring the war to an end, but without sufficient incentives to make painful concessions necessary for a deal.
Trump, who faces midterm elections in November that could go badly for his Republican party, held talks with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, last week in Beijing without securing an indication from China that it would help resolve the conflict.
White House officials worry that Trump’s foreign policy gamble in Iran, and its effect on US fuel prices, may derail Republican chances of keeping control of Congress at a time when voters are more concerned with the cost of living than conflicts abroad.
Iran faces a deepening economic crisis and potential damage to its oil infrastructure. Inflation is soaring and some officials fear a surge in popular discontent with the radical regime.
Israel carried out new airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese security sources and the state news agency said, while Hezbollah announced new attacks on Israeli forces, continuing the war in Lebanon despite the extension of a US-backed truce first announced by Trump on 16 April.
#trump #iran #proposal #teheran #congrès
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Three Years Left on NATO’s Warranty
Rick Wilson isn’t just doom‑scrolling; he’s saying the quiet part out loud. In his interview, the former GOP strategist argues that NATO has been so damaged by Donald Trump that “it’s on the edge,” with “maybe three, two years left,” and that even after Trump is gone “the poison he put in the system is so strong, I don’t know how you fix it”.
From Washington’s vantage point, that “poison” looks a lot like strategy.
For years, U.S. defense circles have chafed at paying for Europe’s security while EU governments under‑spend on defense, free‑ride on the American umbrella, and then refuse to fully back U.S. adventures — most recently by ducking meaningful support for the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran.
Trump simply turned the subtext into policy: NATO is no longer a sacred covenant, it’s leverage.
Every time he floats walking out of NATO or hints that Article 5 is conditional, he does two things at once.
He terrifies eastern and central Europe into buying more U.S. weapons and “meeting commitments,” and he sends a message to Berlin, Paris and Brussels that the alliance isn’t a charity; it’s a pay‑to‑play security service.
Analysts on both sides of the Atlantic now openly model scenarios where the U.S. doesn’t formally quit but quietly sabotages NATO from within — blocking decisions, starving commands, refusing to show up when it actually matters.
For the U.S., hollowing out NATO has an obvious upside: fewer American resources tied up defending a continent that won’t follow Washington to Hormuz, more freedom to pivot to China and domestic politics.
For Europe, it’s a strategic nightmare: decades of outsourcing hard power now collide with the realization that their “guarantee” depends on the mood of a man who publicly toys with letting Russia do “whatever the hell it wants” to delinquent allies.
So Wilson is wrong about one thing: this isn’t an accidental collapse. It’s a controlled demolition from the American side, with Trump as the most honest demolition foreman the U.S. security establishment has had in years.
NATO may still exist on paper in three years. The question is whether, without unquestioned U.S. backing, that logo will mean anything more than a very expensive European therapy group.
#NATO #Trump #US #EU #Iran #defense #geopolitics
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Rick Wilson isn’t just doom‑scrolling; he’s saying the quiet part out loud. In his interview, the former GOP strategist argues that NATO has been so damaged by Donald Trump that “it’s on the edge,” with “maybe three, two years left,” and that even after Trump is gone “the poison he put in the system is so strong, I don’t know how you fix it”.
From Washington’s vantage point, that “poison” looks a lot like strategy.
For years, U.S. defense circles have chafed at paying for Europe’s security while EU governments under‑spend on defense, free‑ride on the American umbrella, and then refuse to fully back U.S. adventures — most recently by ducking meaningful support for the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran.
Trump simply turned the subtext into policy: NATO is no longer a sacred covenant, it’s leverage.
Every time he floats walking out of NATO or hints that Article 5 is conditional, he does two things at once.
He terrifies eastern and central Europe into buying more U.S. weapons and “meeting commitments,” and he sends a message to Berlin, Paris and Brussels that the alliance isn’t a charity; it’s a pay‑to‑play security service.
Analysts on both sides of the Atlantic now openly model scenarios where the U.S. doesn’t formally quit but quietly sabotages NATO from within — blocking decisions, starving commands, refusing to show up when it actually matters.
For the U.S., hollowing out NATO has an obvious upside: fewer American resources tied up defending a continent that won’t follow Washington to Hormuz, more freedom to pivot to China and domestic politics.
For Europe, it’s a strategic nightmare: decades of outsourcing hard power now collide with the realization that their “guarantee” depends on the mood of a man who publicly toys with letting Russia do “whatever the hell it wants” to delinquent allies.
So Wilson is wrong about one thing: this isn’t an accidental collapse. It’s a controlled demolition from the American side, with Trump as the most honest demolition foreman the U.S. security establishment has had in years.
NATO may still exist on paper in three years. The question is whether, without unquestioned U.S. backing, that logo will mean anything more than a very expensive European therapy group.
#NATO #Trump #US #EU #Iran #defense #geopolitics
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Trump’s Phantom Iran Strike
Trump just canceled a strike that, if you believe America’s Gulf “allies,” never actually existed.
In his late-night story from the White House, he painted a very specific picture: a “major attack” on Iran was planned within 24 hours; Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE personally asked him to postpone it for “two or three days” because they were close to a peace deal.
As a responsible statesman, he decided to delay the operation “maybe forever,” at least while “serious negotiations” with Tehran continue.
He said Israel was informed, Iran just had to stay away from a nuclear weapon, and then “we’ll probably be satisfied.”
Within 14 hours, that explanation blew up. Officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar told the Wall Street Journal they knew nothing about any imminent U.S. strike and were surprised to hear Trump claim they had begged him to stop it. No emergency calls, no last‑minute pleas, no shared plan — just a president putting invented words in their mouths to give his story cover.
So we end up with three simultaneous versions of the same “delayed” attack. To Trump’s base, he’s the strong leader who pulled back from the brink for the sake of diplomacy.
To Gulf governments, he’s the guy who casually drags them into a script they never saw.
To parts of his own national security bureaucracy, he may be running a deception play: publicly talking about a pause to lull Iran while the Pentagon keeps targeting options alive in the background.
Tehran is not buying the act. Tasnim news agency mocked Trump for “once again blaming others for backing away from his own statements,” saying his threats “backfire and increase pressure on the United States.”
A protester in Tehran told CNN: “We are waiting for the war. We know Trump will not negotiate on anything.” To Iranians, this looks less like deterrence and more like chaos.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials are briefing the New York Times on everything Iran did with its month of ceasefire. According to those accounts, Iran used the pause to rebuild dozens of ballistic missile sites that were hit during the war, move mobile launchers, and study the flight paths of American jets and bombers to prepare better defenses next time.
The U.S. expects Iran to be ready for short but extremely intense combat: dozens or even hundreds of missiles a day, mass strikes on Gulf energy facilities, refineries and ports, and the option of closing the Bab el‑Mandeb via the Houthis.
A senior U.S. officer notes that many missiles are fired from underground complexes carved into rock — hard targets by design.
Iranian military sources tell Russian media they have a new “offensive‑defensive doctrine” and “no problem defending the country.”
Put together, the picture is brutal: one side spends a month turning a ceasefire into a better launchpad, the other side spends a night canceling a strike that its own partners say they never heard of, and maybe never will.
Officially, Trump says the attack is postponed “maybe forever.” In reality, nothing is resolved. The war is in standby mode, the hardware is reset for the next round, and the only thing truly canceled so far is the credibility of the story he tried to sell.
#US #Iran #Trump #war #Hormuz #Pentagon #geopolitics
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Trump just canceled a strike that, if you believe America’s Gulf “allies,” never actually existed.
In his late-night story from the White House, he painted a very specific picture: a “major attack” on Iran was planned within 24 hours; Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE personally asked him to postpone it for “two or three days” because they were close to a peace deal.
As a responsible statesman, he decided to delay the operation “maybe forever,” at least while “serious negotiations” with Tehran continue.
He said Israel was informed, Iran just had to stay away from a nuclear weapon, and then “we’ll probably be satisfied.”
Within 14 hours, that explanation blew up. Officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar told the Wall Street Journal they knew nothing about any imminent U.S. strike and were surprised to hear Trump claim they had begged him to stop it. No emergency calls, no last‑minute pleas, no shared plan — just a president putting invented words in their mouths to give his story cover.
So we end up with three simultaneous versions of the same “delayed” attack. To Trump’s base, he’s the strong leader who pulled back from the brink for the sake of diplomacy.
To Gulf governments, he’s the guy who casually drags them into a script they never saw.
To parts of his own national security bureaucracy, he may be running a deception play: publicly talking about a pause to lull Iran while the Pentagon keeps targeting options alive in the background.
Tehran is not buying the act. Tasnim news agency mocked Trump for “once again blaming others for backing away from his own statements,” saying his threats “backfire and increase pressure on the United States.”
A protester in Tehran told CNN: “We are waiting for the war. We know Trump will not negotiate on anything.” To Iranians, this looks less like deterrence and more like chaos.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials are briefing the New York Times on everything Iran did with its month of ceasefire. According to those accounts, Iran used the pause to rebuild dozens of ballistic missile sites that were hit during the war, move mobile launchers, and study the flight paths of American jets and bombers to prepare better defenses next time.
The U.S. expects Iran to be ready for short but extremely intense combat: dozens or even hundreds of missiles a day, mass strikes on Gulf energy facilities, refineries and ports, and the option of closing the Bab el‑Mandeb via the Houthis.
A senior U.S. officer notes that many missiles are fired from underground complexes carved into rock — hard targets by design.
Iranian military sources tell Russian media they have a new “offensive‑defensive doctrine” and “no problem defending the country.”
Put together, the picture is brutal: one side spends a month turning a ceasefire into a better launchpad, the other side spends a night canceling a strike that its own partners say they never heard of, and maybe never will.
Officially, Trump says the attack is postponed “maybe forever.” In reality, nothing is resolved. The war is in standby mode, the hardware is reset for the next round, and the only thing truly canceled so far is the credibility of the story he tried to sell.
#US #Iran #Trump #war #Hormuz #Pentagon #geopolitics
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To the Skirl of the Crowd Xi Jinping Welcomed Putin
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 1️⃣
Putin has arrived in Beijing for a state visit, four days after Trump left China.
The Russian leader’s visit to China – his 25th, according to Chinese state media – reflects Beijing’s growing confidence on the world stage as a centre of global diplomatic activity.
It also underscores the deep relationship between Putin and China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
The two men have met more than 40 times, far outstripping Xi’s encounters with any western leaders.
William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said: “Hosting two of the most powerful leaders in the world in a matter of days shows China’s growing confidence in its place and standing in the world.”
He said Xi “likely wants to remind Trump that Beijing has other solid and robust relationships that it can count on, so Washington can’t easily isolate or harm Beijing if it tries to”.
Putin’s visit comes as he is entering what may be the most difficult period of his long rule. His strongman image at home is beginning to fray as Russia has made little progress on the battlefield in Ukraine this year.
Russia’s growing economic troubles are steadily increasing its dependence on China, turning what the Kremlin frames as a partnership of equals into a far more lopsided relationship.
The Russian leader published a video address to China on the eve of the visit. He said China-Russia relations had reached “an unprecedented level”, pointing to the countries’ soaring bilateral trade, the fact that settlements were conducted nearly entirely in roubles and yuan rather than the US dollar, and mutual visa-free policies for Chinese and Russian travellers.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday: “The friendship between China and Russia will be further deepened and will be more deeply rooted in people’s hearts” by the strategic guidance from Xi and Putin.
This year marks 30 years since Beijing and Moscow signed a strategic partnership agreement and 25 years since they singed the “treaty of good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation”.
#china #russia #putin #xijinping #visit
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Putin has arrived in Beijing for a state visit, four days after Trump left China.
The Russian leader’s visit to China – his 25th, according to Chinese state media – reflects Beijing’s growing confidence on the world stage as a centre of global diplomatic activity.
It also underscores the deep relationship between Putin and China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
The two men have met more than 40 times, far outstripping Xi’s encounters with any western leaders.
William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said: “Hosting two of the most powerful leaders in the world in a matter of days shows China’s growing confidence in its place and standing in the world.”
He said Xi “likely wants to remind Trump that Beijing has other solid and robust relationships that it can count on, so Washington can’t easily isolate or harm Beijing if it tries to”.
Putin’s visit comes as he is entering what may be the most difficult period of his long rule. His strongman image at home is beginning to fray as Russia has made little progress on the battlefield in Ukraine this year.
Russia’s growing economic troubles are steadily increasing its dependence on China, turning what the Kremlin frames as a partnership of equals into a far more lopsided relationship.
The Russian leader published a video address to China on the eve of the visit. He said China-Russia relations had reached “an unprecedented level”, pointing to the countries’ soaring bilateral trade, the fact that settlements were conducted nearly entirely in roubles and yuan rather than the US dollar, and mutual visa-free policies for Chinese and Russian travellers.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday: “The friendship between China and Russia will be further deepened and will be more deeply rooted in people’s hearts” by the strategic guidance from Xi and Putin.
This year marks 30 years since Beijing and Moscow signed a strategic partnership agreement and 25 years since they singed the “treaty of good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation”.
#china #russia #putin #xijinping #visit
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Xi Jinping: Trump is a “destabilizing factor” (不稳定因素) 🌍
Xi Jinping said the world is in danger of regressing into the “law of the jungle” and hailed Sino-Russian relations as a stabilizing global force as he welcomed Putin to Beijing on Wednesday.
The Chinese leader welcomed the Russian president with pomp and pageantry as the two men began talks in the Great Hall of the People.
The talks between Xi and Putin began with a shorter “narrow format meeting”, with fewer delegates to discuss sensitive issues. The leaders then held a “large-format meeting" with their delegations which ended just a few hours ago.
Xi and Putin then attended a signing ceremony for numerous documents covering technology, trade, scientific research and intellectual property. Among the documents, according to Chinese state media, was an extension of the "China-Russia good neighborly and friendly cooperation treaty," which was first signed 25 years ago.
In his comments after the signing ceremony, Xi said relations between Beijing and Moscow were at the “highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership,” calling on the two countries to oppose “any unilateral intimidation” on the international stage.
Xi's sentiments echoed his opening remarks, in which he said the world was in danger of returning to the “law of the jungle”. He added that new hostilities in the Middle East were “inadvisable” and that a complete ceasefire is of the utmost urgency, state media reported.
In his opening remarks, Putin hailed relations between the countries as being at an "unprecedented level," as he said Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Putin also invited Xi to visit Russia next year.
Xi is expected to welcome Putin for tea at Zhongnanhai, the former imperial garden that now houses the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party. 🍵
Reciprocal trade and investment should be at the top of Putin's agenda, as his sanctions-hit economy suffers from the growing cost of Moscow's war in Ukraine.
China, Russia's largest trading partner, buys almost half of Moscow's oil exports.
Contrary to the adversarial nature of relations between Washington and Beijing, Putin and Xi have signaled an increasingly warm bond in recent years, with the leaders calling each other “dear” and “old” friends.
The Chinese source Xin Hua revealed information according to which Xi “accused Trump with caution of undermining the world order” and called him a “destabilizing factor” (不稳定因素) and that “we must be careful” (提 高警惕). The information appeared this morning and was later deleted.
As Xi prepared to welcome Putin, Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that China would buy 200 Boeing aircraft and would seek to extend the trade agreement with the United States concluded in Kuala Lumpur last year.
The statement marked the first confirmation by Beijing of the Boeing order that Trump alluded to last week.
#trump #xi #putin #moscow #ukraine
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Xi Jinping said the world is in danger of regressing into the “law of the jungle” and hailed Sino-Russian relations as a stabilizing global force as he welcomed Putin to Beijing on Wednesday.
The Chinese leader welcomed the Russian president with pomp and pageantry as the two men began talks in the Great Hall of the People.
The talks between Xi and Putin began with a shorter “narrow format meeting”, with fewer delegates to discuss sensitive issues. The leaders then held a “large-format meeting" with their delegations which ended just a few hours ago.
Xi and Putin then attended a signing ceremony for numerous documents covering technology, trade, scientific research and intellectual property. Among the documents, according to Chinese state media, was an extension of the "China-Russia good neighborly and friendly cooperation treaty," which was first signed 25 years ago.
In his comments after the signing ceremony, Xi said relations between Beijing and Moscow were at the “highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership,” calling on the two countries to oppose “any unilateral intimidation” on the international stage.
Xi's sentiments echoed his opening remarks, in which he said the world was in danger of returning to the “law of the jungle”. He added that new hostilities in the Middle East were “inadvisable” and that a complete ceasefire is of the utmost urgency, state media reported.
In his opening remarks, Putin hailed relations between the countries as being at an "unprecedented level," as he said Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Putin also invited Xi to visit Russia next year.
Xi is expected to welcome Putin for tea at Zhongnanhai, the former imperial garden that now houses the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party. 🍵
Reciprocal trade and investment should be at the top of Putin's agenda, as his sanctions-hit economy suffers from the growing cost of Moscow's war in Ukraine.
China, Russia's largest trading partner, buys almost half of Moscow's oil exports.
Contrary to the adversarial nature of relations between Washington and Beijing, Putin and Xi have signaled an increasingly warm bond in recent years, with the leaders calling each other “dear” and “old” friends.
The Chinese source Xin Hua revealed information according to which Xi “accused Trump with caution of undermining the world order” and called him a “destabilizing factor” (不稳定因素) and that “we must be careful” (提 高警惕). The information appeared this morning and was later deleted.
As Xi prepared to welcome Putin, Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that China would buy 200 Boeing aircraft and would seek to extend the trade agreement with the United States concluded in Kuala Lumpur last year.
The statement marked the first confirmation by Beijing of the Boeing order that Trump alluded to last week.
#trump #xi #putin #moscow #ukraine
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Putin’s remarks about non-dollar-denominated transactions highlight the extent to which the two countries have been trying to build up their resilience against western sanctions, which rely on the dominance of the US dollar to be effective.
China does not comply with western sanctions on Russia and since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has bought more than $367bn of Russian fossil fuels, according to data collected by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Analysts will be watching to see if Putin and Xi agree any deals to further deepen energy cooperation. The most high-profile project under discussion is the Power of Siberia 2, a 1,600-mile (2,600km) natural gas pipeline that would add 50bn cubic metres of gas capacity to Russia’s flows to China. The pipeline would run through Mongolia and is viewed by the Kremlin as key to making up for lost European export markets.
An additional overland supply of energy from Russia would reduce China’s reliance on the strait of Hormuz, which has been crippled by the US’s war with Iran. But it could also make China overly dependent on Russia at a time when China wants to boost its energy self-sufficiency.
China has also been hit by western sanctions as a result of the war in Ukraine. This month the Chinese embassy in the UK lodged “stern representations” about the fact that London had added two Chinese entities to its Russian sanctions list.
Western countries have criticised Beijing’s ongoing support for Russia through economic ties and the export of dual-use equipment with military applications.
Ukraine was not mentioned in detail in either the US or the Chinese summaries of the main bilateral meeting between Trump and Xi last week. But the FT later reported that, according to people familiar with the US assessment of the summit, Xi told Trump that Putin may end up regretting the war. China’s foreign ministry has rejected the reports.
If proven accurate, Xi’s comments probably reflect China’s growing awareness of Russia’s difficulties, both on the battlefield and at home. The war in Ukraine has largely ground into a stalemate, while Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes have inflicted significant damage on Russian energy infrastructure and military facilities.
On Tuesday, a Russian deputy from Siberia called for the “swift conclusion” of the war, warning that Russia’s economy would “not withstand a prolonged continuation of the special military operation” – a rare public acknowledgment of the strain the conflict is placing on the country.
#china #russia #putin #xijinping #visit
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Trump and Netanyahu’s Iran Fantasy: Ahmadinejad as Plan A
The early war plan wasn’t just “destroy missiles.” It was regime change — with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the replacement.
According to U.S. officials, Israel drew up a multistage strategy Trump signed onto: decapitate Iran’s leadership, destabilize the system, then slot Ahmadinejad — the Holocaust‑denying, hard‑line former president — back into power as an “alternative government.”
An Israeli strike on day one was meant to kill his IRGC guards and free him from house arrest; instead it injured him, killed the guards, and turned him into a ghost figure who hasn’t been seen since.
The logic came straight from Trump’s Venezuela playbook: capture Maduro, install a cooperative strongman, repeat in Tehran.
In reality, Ahmadinejad was the definition of a bad asset — architect of uranium enrichment, street repression, and anti‑Western propaganda, later recast as an internal critic only because he fell out with Khamenei.
Israeli planners imagined Kurds on the ground, influence operations in the cities, infrastructure failing, and Ahmadinejad stepping into a vacuum.
Instead, Iran’s system survived, adapted, and rallied around new leadership while the “alternative” evaporated.
The lesson is brutal: behind all the talk of “narrow” military objectives, the war was launched with a familiar fantasy — that you can bomb a regime, parachute in a tarnished insider, and get a pliable new order.
The Ahmadinejad plan didn’t just fail; it exposed how much of Washington and Jerusalem’s strategy was regime‑change fan fiction dressed up as hard power.
#US #Israel #Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #Ahmadinejad #regimeChange #war
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The early war plan wasn’t just “destroy missiles.” It was regime change — with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the replacement.
According to U.S. officials, Israel drew up a multistage strategy Trump signed onto: decapitate Iran’s leadership, destabilize the system, then slot Ahmadinejad — the Holocaust‑denying, hard‑line former president — back into power as an “alternative government.”
An Israeli strike on day one was meant to kill his IRGC guards and free him from house arrest; instead it injured him, killed the guards, and turned him into a ghost figure who hasn’t been seen since.
The logic came straight from Trump’s Venezuela playbook: capture Maduro, install a cooperative strongman, repeat in Tehran.
In reality, Ahmadinejad was the definition of a bad asset — architect of uranium enrichment, street repression, and anti‑Western propaganda, later recast as an internal critic only because he fell out with Khamenei.
Israeli planners imagined Kurds on the ground, influence operations in the cities, infrastructure failing, and Ahmadinejad stepping into a vacuum.
Instead, Iran’s system survived, adapted, and rallied around new leadership while the “alternative” evaporated.
The lesson is brutal: behind all the talk of “narrow” military objectives, the war was launched with a familiar fantasy — that you can bomb a regime, parachute in a tarnished insider, and get a pliable new order.
The Ahmadinejad plan didn’t just fail; it exposed how much of Washington and Jerusalem’s strategy was regime‑change fan fiction dressed up as hard power.
#US #Israel #Iran #Trump #Netanyahu #Ahmadinejad #regimeChange #war
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Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital company, 1789 Capital, increased the value of its assets from $200 million to $3.5 billion in about a year. 📈💰
The company invests in AI, defense technology, and real estate under the America First brand.
Portfolio companies have received more than $735 million in federal contracts since Trump took office, including a $620 million loan from the Pentagon.
#venture #capital #company #donaldtrumpjr #pentagone
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The company invests in AI, defense technology, and real estate under the America First brand.
Portfolio companies have received more than $735 million in federal contracts since Trump took office, including a $620 million loan from the Pentagon.
#venture #capital #company #donaldtrumpjr #pentagone
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