Peace Through Empty Magazines

Washington wants Ukraine to spare Russia’s refineries. Ukraine needs American missiles to protect its own power plants.

Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptors, a source familiar with the situation told CNN on Oct. 15. The source said the shortage meant almost none of the ballistic missiles in the latest strike were intercepted.

Two European officials told CNN that Washington had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and block European purchases of American weapons for Kyiv unless Ukraine stopped hitting Russian energy facilities. Trump says intelligence sharing continues.

Trump has arranged a Russian diesel deal to ease fuel prices before the midterms. Seven senators, including four Republicans, urged him to reverse course, warning that the deal would give Putin a financial lifeline.

Zelensky says Ukraine needs more Patriots before it halts refinery strikes.

That is the bargaining table. Russian oil has an American buyer. Ukraine’s air defenses have an empty magazine.

#Ukraine #Patriot #Trump #Russia

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Zelensky: Western Allies Failed to Warn Kyiv Before Russian Ballistic Missile Attack


Zelensky has criticized the lack of advance warning from Western partners before a Russian ballistic missile attack struck civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, raising fresh questions about intelligence-sharing as tensions between Washington and Kyiv continue to grow.

Zelensky said five ballistic missiles hit civilian infrastructure in the Ukrainian capital on Monday, October 12.

He described the strike as particularly reprehensible and stressed that timely intelligence about Russian missile launches can help save lives. “Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives, and this is one of the most critical issues,” Zelensky said in a statement published on social media.

He added that Ukraine had received no early warning from its partners before the attack. The Ukrainian leader’s remarks came amid growing uncertainty over U.S. support, following reports that American officials had threatened to suspend intelligence cooperation with Kyiv.

The warnings reportedly came as the Trump administration pressed Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Despite the concerns, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha indicated that intelligence cooperation with the United States was continuing. He suggested that the absence of a warning before the Kyiv strike could be linked to the particular type of Russian weapon used. The dispute highlights the importance of intelligence-sharing beyond identifying targets for Ukrainian strikes against Russia.

Ukrainian military officials have said that information from the United States is particularly valuable for detecting ballistic missile launches and monitoring the takeoff of Russian long-range bombers, giving civilians and emergency services a chance to prepare.

Zelensky also accused Moscow of disregarding Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire. According to the Ukrainian president, Kyiv had refrained from attacking Russian oil refineries and energy facilities for two days after the announcement, while Russian forces continued striking Ukrainian infrastructure.

He said 19 Ukrainian regions had come under attack during that period, adding that Russian forces had made clear they were not prepared to stop their bombardment.

Ukraine, Zelensky said, remained willing to take reciprocal steps toward de-escalation but needed effective international pressure on Moscow to secure meaningful results.

He warned that reducing assistance to Ukraine or making it more difficult to protect civilians from ballistic missiles would undermine efforts to achieve peace.

The latest developments underscore the challenges facing Western allies as they balance diplomatic efforts to end the war with continued military and intelligence support for Kyiv.

While Ukrainian officials say cooperation with Washington remains active, Zelensky’s comments reveal the potentially deadly consequences when early-warning information does not reach Ukrainian authorities in time.

#Ukraine #Zelensky #Russia
#USForeignPolicy

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The Palace Survives Its Staff

Yemen’s prime minister and Cabinet survived the Houthi attack on their presidential compound. Five people working there did not.

Missiles and drones struck Aden’s al-Maashiq Palace on Oct. 15, killing five people and injuring 16, according to Yemen’s health minister. The casualties included guards and civilian employees. Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani and his ministers were unharmed.

The Houthis said they targeted a Saudi military operations center. An unnamed Yemeni minister told AFP that missiles hit command centers used by government and Saudi-led coalition forces inside the compound.

Zindani condemned the attack as another example of Houthi strikes on civilian sites. The palace apparently changes categories depending on who is describing it.

Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition says Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport have killed 17 people and injured 333 this month.

The Houthis had warned airlines and workers to leave Saudi airports and oil facilities.

#Yemen #Houthis #SaudiArabia #Aden

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Protection, Up for Renewal

Netanyahu says he stopped the killing of Syria’s Druze with airstrikes and a phone call. His defense minister says their survival may depend on his reelection.

At an Oct. 15 campaign event in Yarka, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described striking government targets in Damascus before calling Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. “It was a very short, very sharp conversation, and the slaughter stopped,” he said, referring to the July 2025 violence.

Defense Minister Israel Katz supplied the electoral terms: Sharaa is waiting for Netanyahu to lose so he can resume attacking the Druze. That is Katz’s prediction, now serving as a campaign argument.

Damascus rejected using the Druze for Israeli election propaganda. A Syrian government source called them an inseparable part of the nation and accused Israel of arming a militia to destabilize Sweida. The statement neither confirmed nor denied the call.

Both governments claim the Druze as proof of their legitimacy. Netanyahu offers personal protection with an election deadline. Damascus invokes national belonging while blaming Israel for the violence.

The Druze get two competing claims of guardianship. Neither comes with the right to fire the guardian.

#Syria #Druze #Netanyahu #IsraelElections

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Inside Trump’s White House Power War: Ambitious Insiders Circle as Midterm Fears Mount

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Behind the carefully managed public image of Trump’s White House, a struggle over access, authority and political survival is intensifying. With the November midterm elections approaching, uncertainty over Republican control of Congress is colliding with a separate battle inside the administration: who will wield power if the president decides his inner circle needs a shake-up?

At the center of the tension is Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, whose position has become the subject of speculation as senior officials and outside allies weigh their prospects for greater influence. The possibility of a post-election departure has fueled discussions about potential successors, although no resignation has been announced.

The atmosphere has been described in stark terms. One Trump ally characterized the White House as “the new Wild Wild West,” a phrase that captures the perception of an administration in which formal lines of authority can compete with personal relationships and direct access to the president.

The question is whether the current friction will remain a series of internal disputes or develop into a broader restructuring after the midterms.

The succession battle begins before a vacancy existsAmong the figures mentioned in discussions about the administration’s future are Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, housing official Bill Pulte and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin.

Their names have surfaced amid speculation about who could gain influence if Wiles leaves her position or if Trump reorganizes his senior team.

But the distinction between political chatter and an actual succession process is important: there has been no confirmed announcement that Wiles is stepping down or that a replacement has been selected.

Even so, uncertainty at the top creates incentives for officials to strengthen their relationships, demonstrate loyalty and prepare for a possible change in leadership. The chief of staff’s office is one of the most consequential positions in the executive branch. Its occupant helps coordinate policy, manage competing demands and determine how information and recommendations reach the president.

A change in that position can therefore reshape the internal balance of power across the administration. For officials hoping to move up, the opportunity is significant. For those already close to the president, the risk is that an election setback could prompt Trump to reconsider the people responsible for managing his White House.

A warning about the election — and the ambitions it could unleashThe midterms are central to the calculations taking place behind the scenes. Republicans face the prospect of losing their House majority, a result that would give Democrats greater control over congressional investigations, committee priorities and the legislative agenda.

One ally of Wiles reportedly warned that a Republican defeat could become a catalyst for internal maneuvering, describing the possibility this way: “A Republican ‘blowout next month, very likely, will be a wedge that the ambitious use.”

The remark points to a familiar dynamic in Washington: political setbacks can turn questions about performance into struggles over responsibility. When a party loses ground, advisers and officials may begin arguing over strategy, messaging and who should be held accountable.

#Trump #SusieWiles #WhiteHouse #Powerstruggle

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Bill Pulte and the question of who is positioning for powerBill Pulte has emerged as one of the names associated with speculation about a possible change in the White House leadership structure. That speculation has drawn attention to the relationships and conversations surrounding the president’s advisers.

Corey Lewandowski, a longtime Trump ally and former campaign manager, rejected one specific claim about Pulte’s prospects. “I have never spoken with the president about Bill Pulte being the chief of staff.”

The statement is a direct denial of a conversation that would have been relevant to succession speculation. It does not, by itself, resolve the broader question of who might be considered for a senior position if Wiles’ status changes.

That distinction matters in an administration where rumors about personnel can become politically consequential before any formal decision is made. A name circulating among insiders may reflect genuine interest, informal speculation or an attempt by competing factions to shape perceptions of who is gaining ground.

Without confirmation from the president, the individuals involved or an official announcement, the succession question remains open.

The White House has pushed back against portrayals of the administration as divided by a struggle for control. Responding to the reporting, White House spokesman Davis Ingle dismissed the credibility of anonymous sources, saying: “These anonymous sources know nothing.”

The response reflects the administration’s effort to challenge accounts of internal conflict and reject the suggestion that outside observers have a reliable picture of its private deliberations. That denial is an important part of the story.

Reports of internal rivalries often rely on people familiar with private conversations, and their accounts may reflect incomplete information, personal grievances or competing political interests.

At the same time, official denials do not automatically settle questions about internal disagreements. The available evidence supports a more limited conclusion: succession speculation exists, the administration has faced questions about competing centers of influence, and the White House disputes the characterization of its internal dynamics as a power struggle. Whether those tensions will produce personnel changes remains uncertain.

A network of allies, advisers and competing interestsThe struggle surrounding Wiles also illustrates the complexity of Trump’s wider political network. Formal government positions are only one source of influence.

Longtime allies, former campaign officials and outside advisers can retain access to the president, creating additional channels through which competing arguments reach the White House. Lewandowski’s involvement in the wider political conversation is one example of how relationships outside the formal chain of command can become relevant to questions about senior staffing.

The reporting has also drawn attention to overseas consulting activities involving political strategists James Blair and Chris LaCivita, both associated with Wiles. Those activities have attracted scrutiny, adding another complication to the political environment surrounding figures close to the chief of staff.

A change in the chief of staff’s office could alter the flow of information to Trump, redistribute influence among senior advisers and reshape how the White House responds to congressional opposition. The midterms will determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill. They may also become the moment when the president decides which people he trusts to manage the next phase of his administration.

Inside the West Wing, that possibility is enough to make every personnel rumor, public denial and sign of shifting allegiance politically significant.

#Trump #SusieWiles #WhiteHouse #Powerstruggle

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God’s Chosen, Rival Campaigns

Israel’s secular and religious Zionists share a belief in Jewish chosenness. They disagree on what God’s selection entitles them to build.

In an Oct. 16 essay published by TheJ.ca, Israeli researchers examine how that belief survives outside religious observance. Secular Zionism translates chosenness into moral exceptionalism: “the most moral army in the world” and “the only democracy in the Middle East.” Religious Zionism links it to a divine promise of land and sovereignty.

The secular version needs the world to recognize Israel’s exceptional virtue. The religious version can treat the world’s objections as obstacles to fulfilling the promise.

That creates an uneven contest. One camp promises to repair Israel’s reputation. The other builds settlements and institutions to advance its territorial future.

The ultra-Orthodox locate chosenness in Torah and religious obligation. That gives them a different bargaining position: either Zionist camp can supply budgets and protect exemptions from military service.

The researchers’ argument cuts beneath the election campaign. These camps dispute what being God’s chosen people requires of the state.

On Oct. 27, Israelis can choose a government. Each camp will still claim a mandate issued long before the polls opened.

#IsraelElections #JewishIdentity #Zionism #Sovereignty

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The Opposition’s Friendly Fire Sale

Israel’s opposition agreed to stop attacking itself. Eleven days before the election, the ceasefire expired.

On Oct. 16, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman branded Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot “Benny Gantz 2.” He accused Eisenkot of poaching opposition votes to negotiate a government with Netanyahu from a stronger position.

Gantz defended Eisenkot, then accused Lieberman of plotting a minority government with Bennett and the Arab parties. Lieberman has publicly ruled that out. Gantz’s own prescription is a “cross-bloc Zionist unity government.”

Eisenkot answered without naming Lieberman. He urged voters to ignore the spin and deliver more than 61 seats for change.

Lieberman offers an opposition purged of unacceptable partners. Gantz offers a government across the divide. Eisenkot wants enough votes to avoid explaining the coalition before election day.

Netanyahu’s opponents are competing over who might rescue him after the vote. For now, they are providing the campaign assistance free.

#IsraelElections #Lieberman #Eisenkot #Gantz

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Europe, Please Hold

Zelensky wants at least €70 billion more from Europe. Ukraine’s own anti-corruption investigators keep finding officials who allegedly sold protection or took a cut, and some of them sat close to the president.

On Oct. 16, the Ukrainian president put next year’s war costs at €155 billion and asked EU leaders for at least €70 billion in additional support. “This is a realistic amount,” he said.

In September, anti-corruption agencies charged a senior official in the Prosecutor General’s Office with running a protection racket.

Investigators say the group took bribes to shield fraudulent call centers that targeted Ukrainians and foreigners. On Oct. 14, authorities said they had shut down another fraudulent call center in the Lviv region. Its alleged victims included EU citizens whose banking credentials were stolen.

The cases reach well above call centers. Operation Midas, unveiled in November 2025, involves an alleged $100 million corruption scheme that implicates officials at Energoatom, the state nuclear operator. Its alleged ringleader, Tymur Mindich, is Zelensky’s longtime friend and a co-owner of Kvartal 95, the production company the president co-founded. Mindich left Ukraine for Israel that month.

Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff until he resigned in November 2025, was charged in May with laundering about 460 million hryvnias ($10.5 million) through a luxury housing project near Kyiv. Yermak denies the allegations.

Before approving the next package, European leaders owe taxpayers an answer on what controls will keep this money away from officials who sell protection to criminals and from the schemes investigators keep finding near the top.

#Ukraine #EU #Corruption #Accountability

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The Photo Op Gets a Case Number

Itamar Ben-Gvir posed over detained flotilla activists in Ashdod. Italian prosecutors are now examining the chain of command behind the spectacle.

On Oct. 16, Rome prosecutors expanded their investigation to include Defense Minister Israel Katz, military chief Eyal Zamir and other senior security officials.

The case follows complaints from 50 Italians detained during two Gaza-bound flotilla missions in 2025 and 2026. Investigators are examining suspected torture, kidnapping and other offenses.

Prosecutors say detainees reported beatings and death threats. Participants in the second mission described harsher treatment, including tasers and rubber bullets.

Israel denies mistreatment. Its prison service says detainees received lawful treatment and medical care.

Ben-Gvir’s response when the investigation emerged in June was that he would “continue to stand proudly alongside our fighters.”

Rome’s inquiry asks a different question, who ordered, carried out or bore responsibility for what happened?

The minister supplied the publicity. Prosecutors are working on the credits.

#Israel #Italy #BenGvir #Accountability

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Trump’s Approval Hits a New Low as Democrats Gain Ground Ahead of the Midterms


Trump is facing a growing political challenge just two weeks before the November midterm elections.

His approval rating has fallen to a record low, economic anxiety is weighing on voters, and Democrats have opened a significant lead in the race for control of Congress, according to a new Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll published October 18.

The numbers paint a difficult picture for the White House. Just 33% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, while 66% disapprove. More than half of all adults surveyed, 52%, say they strongly disapprove of his leadership.

The president’s approval rating has dropped four percentage points since July and eight points compared with the same period last year. Among likely voters, his approval stands at 38%, with 62% expressing disapproval.

For Democrats, the findings offer a potential opening ahead of the November 3 elections, when control of Congress will be at stake. The party leads Republicans by eight percentage points among likely voters in the congressional contest, with 52% supporting Democratic candidates compared with 44% backing Republicans.

The gap has widened since the previous Washington Post poll in July, when Democrats held a three-point advantage among registered voters. Economic dissatisfaction appears to be one of the central factors behind the shift in public opinion.

Rising gasoline prices, increasingly expensive groceries and mounting health care costs are putting pressure on household budgets. For many Americans, the economy is not an abstract political debate but a daily calculation about how to pay bills, fill the refrigerator and cover medical expenses.The poll also reveals a significant change in which party voters trust to manage the economy.

For the first time in more than a decade, Democrats have moved ahead of Republicans on this issue. That shift could complicate the Republican campaign, which has traditionally relied on its reputation for economic management and fiscal discipline.

Foreign policy is adding another layer of uncertainty. Trump’s handling of the war with Iran has become a source of public dissatisfaction, with voters concerned about the consequences of the conflict and its impact on energy prices.

The combination of military tensions and rising living costs is creating a difficult environment for an administration seeking to convince Americans that its policies are working.The broader mood is equally troubling for the president.

According to the survey, 72% of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, a five-point increase since April. Meanwhile, 63% of respondents hold an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. These figures suggest that dissatisfaction extends beyond the president himself and could affect Republican candidates in competitive congressional districts.

Trump’s political image is also facing scrutiny. A majority of Americans surveyed consider him too extreme, while 66% believe he is using the presidency to benefit himself financially. Such perceptions could further weaken the administration’s appeal among independent voters and some Americans who supported Trump in 2024.

Still, national polling does not determine the outcome of individual races. Congressional elections are decided district by district, and the Senate map presents a different set of challenges from the House of Representatives.

For Republicans, the immediate challenge is to persuade voters that the administration can address the cost of living and restore confidence in its leadership.

Democrats, meanwhile, must turn their polling advantage into actual votes and demonstrate that their own economic proposals can deliver tangible improvements.

Whether that discontent translates into a major shift in congressional power will become clear on November 3.

#Trump #MidtermElections #Democrats #USPoliticsSource

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Yemen’s Coalition Renewal Plan

Abu Dhabi is reopening the payroll, and Riyadh is providing air cover. Yemen’s fractured anti-Houthi coalition has found a reason to cooperate again. The Houthis are advancing.

The UAE has agreed to resume payments to southern Yemeni forces, principally the Giants Brigades, while Saudi Arabia protects them from the air, The Guardian reported. Abu Dhabi halted its funding in January amid a dispute with Riyadh over Yemen’s future.

That dispute went as far as Saudi strikes on Emirati arms shipments meant for southern separatists. Now the two governments are arranging joint operations.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has called for an emergency parliamentary session to authorize military action in Saudi Arabia’s defense.

The Houthis reportedly threatened Egyptian airports, tourism and energy infrastructure if Cairo intervenes, telling Egyptians to prepare firewood for winter.

The Gulf governments can renegotiate who funds the fighters and who flies the aircraft. Egyptians get a simpler arrangement. Cairo makes a military decision, and their electricity becomes a target.

#BabylonBurning #Yemen #Egypt #SaudiArabia #UAE

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