📰 Turkey’s Peripheral Doctrine: Evict Israel, Own the Map
Ben-Gurion’s periphery doctrine is broken. Iran and Turkey, once the non‑Arab rim that balanced Israel’s environment, now sit at the heart of two hostile axes.
The partial defeat of the Shiite arc didn’t remove the threat; it opened space for a Sunni front with Ankara in the middle and Syria, Hamas-in-Istanbul, Qatar, Saudi Arabia–Pakistan, and reactivated jihadist networks around it. Israel emerges from simultaneous wars depleted, while its main military patron (the US), economic partner (the EU) and Arab pillar (Saudi Arabia) all cool at once.
Turkey’s challenge is threefold and cumulative. Politically, Erdoğan’s camp now brands Israel a regional danger and warns that “after Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy,” casting Turkey as the next target.
Geopolitically, Ankara pushes pan‑Turkic and “Blue Homeland” projects, drawing in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan — even Baku criticized Israel’s recognition of the Armenian genocide while keeping energy ties with Turkey.
Economically, Turkey and Syria are building an India–EU route that runs via Jordan and Syria to Latakia and Tartus, ports locked into 30‑year concessions with CMA CGM and DP World, backed by Turkish–Saudi rail memoranda reviving the Hejaz corridor.
Paris has entrenched itself as the Western anchor at Syria’s terminus: Macron’s Damascus visit, EU sanctions relief, UN delisting of Syrian leaders, and CMA CGM’s expanded Latakia concession mean any Syrian–Turkish branch of the India–EU corridor ends in a French‑operated port.
Brussels’s parallel sanctions ladder and “peace triangle” logic tie support for an Israeli endpoint to Palestinian conditions no Israeli government can meet.
Washington, meanwhile, arms Turkey with F‑110 engines and flirts with restored F‑35 access, tests Syria as a tool against Hezbollah, and seats Ankara and Doha in Gaza governance under Trump’s “Board of Peace,” all while Israel’s air defense remains tuned to long‑range Iranian threats rather than short‑range Turkish and Syrian vectors.
Five forces now converge on pushing Israel out of the corridor: French control of Latakia, Turkish–Saudi logistics deals, a US pivot to Ankara and Damascus, an EU conditionality built on Palestinian attachments, and Turkey’s grip on Levantine ports and rails.
Iran’s reopening of Hormuz may soften the urgency of overland bypasses, but it doesn’t restore Israel’s centrality.
The new peripheral doctrine belongs to Ankara — and it draws the region’s arteries around Israel, not through it.
#israel #turkey #syria #IMEC #latakia #nato #periphery #fakeCentrality
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Ben-Gurion’s periphery doctrine is broken. Iran and Turkey, once the non‑Arab rim that balanced Israel’s environment, now sit at the heart of two hostile axes.
The partial defeat of the Shiite arc didn’t remove the threat; it opened space for a Sunni front with Ankara in the middle and Syria, Hamas-in-Istanbul, Qatar, Saudi Arabia–Pakistan, and reactivated jihadist networks around it. Israel emerges from simultaneous wars depleted, while its main military patron (the US), economic partner (the EU) and Arab pillar (Saudi Arabia) all cool at once.
Turkey’s challenge is threefold and cumulative. Politically, Erdoğan’s camp now brands Israel a regional danger and warns that “after Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy,” casting Turkey as the next target.
Geopolitically, Ankara pushes pan‑Turkic and “Blue Homeland” projects, drawing in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan — even Baku criticized Israel’s recognition of the Armenian genocide while keeping energy ties with Turkey.
Economically, Turkey and Syria are building an India–EU route that runs via Jordan and Syria to Latakia and Tartus, ports locked into 30‑year concessions with CMA CGM and DP World, backed by Turkish–Saudi rail memoranda reviving the Hejaz corridor.
Paris has entrenched itself as the Western anchor at Syria’s terminus: Macron’s Damascus visit, EU sanctions relief, UN delisting of Syrian leaders, and CMA CGM’s expanded Latakia concession mean any Syrian–Turkish branch of the India–EU corridor ends in a French‑operated port.
Brussels’s parallel sanctions ladder and “peace triangle” logic tie support for an Israeli endpoint to Palestinian conditions no Israeli government can meet.
Washington, meanwhile, arms Turkey with F‑110 engines and flirts with restored F‑35 access, tests Syria as a tool against Hezbollah, and seats Ankara and Doha in Gaza governance under Trump’s “Board of Peace,” all while Israel’s air defense remains tuned to long‑range Iranian threats rather than short‑range Turkish and Syrian vectors.
Five forces now converge on pushing Israel out of the corridor: French control of Latakia, Turkish–Saudi logistics deals, a US pivot to Ankara and Damascus, an EU conditionality built on Palestinian attachments, and Turkey’s grip on Levantine ports and rails.
Iran’s reopening of Hormuz may soften the urgency of overland bypasses, but it doesn’t restore Israel’s centrality.
The new peripheral doctrine belongs to Ankara — and it draws the region’s arteries around Israel, not through it.
#israel #turkey #syria #IMEC #latakia #nato #periphery #fakeCentrality
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Managed Allies, Managed Voters
Trump’s relationship with Israel in 2026 sits in the paradox that Carnegie analysts keep pointing out: military cooperation with Israel is at an all‑time high, while political support for the alliance inside the US is at a low.
On one track, the White House leans hard on Netanyahu to scale back operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and shrink Israel’s footprint in Syria — a move experts read as Trump trying to show he’s not Israel’s subcontractor in every theater, and as part of US efforts to get Lebanon written into the Iran memorandum’s first clause.
On another track, Washington still treats the security relationship as untouchable: joint war on Iran, missile defense cooperation, and continued funding streams remain pillars, even as public discomfort with Israel’s actions in Gaza and the wider region grows.
Against that backdrop, reports describe Israel deliberately targeting Trump’s conservative base with messaging against the Iran memorandum and any hint of “restraint,” treating the US right not as an independent actor but as a lever to drag the president back into line.
This fits a broader pattern scholars now document: each capital increasingly tries to manage the other’s domestic politics — Israel cultivating US evangelical and MAGA networks, US administrations telegraphing preferences for Israeli coalition and policy choices — instead of openly acknowledging diverging interests.
On Capitol Hill, figures like Hakeem Jeffries embody the shift: personally backing continued security aid while refusing to whip the caucus, effectively conceding that unconditional support for Israel is no longer a safe consensus in the Democratic Party.
Trump pressures Israel to pull back in Syria and Lebanon while protecting its budget lines and joint projects; Israel responds by running influence campaigns inside US politics to box him into old patterns of automatic alignment.
The alliance remains operationally tight — intelligence, air defense, Iran war planning — but politically it’s turning into a loop of mutual management, where each side treats the other’s voters as assets to be steered rather than admitting that “special relationship” now comes with real, and growing, points of conflict.
#usa #israel #iran #syria #lebanon #Trump #Netanyahu #Congress #alliance #fakeDemocracy
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Trump’s relationship with Israel in 2026 sits in the paradox that Carnegie analysts keep pointing out: military cooperation with Israel is at an all‑time high, while political support for the alliance inside the US is at a low.
On one track, the White House leans hard on Netanyahu to scale back operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and shrink Israel’s footprint in Syria — a move experts read as Trump trying to show he’s not Israel’s subcontractor in every theater, and as part of US efforts to get Lebanon written into the Iran memorandum’s first clause.
On another track, Washington still treats the security relationship as untouchable: joint war on Iran, missile defense cooperation, and continued funding streams remain pillars, even as public discomfort with Israel’s actions in Gaza and the wider region grows.
Against that backdrop, reports describe Israel deliberately targeting Trump’s conservative base with messaging against the Iran memorandum and any hint of “restraint,” treating the US right not as an independent actor but as a lever to drag the president back into line.
This fits a broader pattern scholars now document: each capital increasingly tries to manage the other’s domestic politics — Israel cultivating US evangelical and MAGA networks, US administrations telegraphing preferences for Israeli coalition and policy choices — instead of openly acknowledging diverging interests.
On Capitol Hill, figures like Hakeem Jeffries embody the shift: personally backing continued security aid while refusing to whip the caucus, effectively conceding that unconditional support for Israel is no longer a safe consensus in the Democratic Party.
Trump pressures Israel to pull back in Syria and Lebanon while protecting its budget lines and joint projects; Israel responds by running influence campaigns inside US politics to box him into old patterns of automatic alignment.
The alliance remains operationally tight — intelligence, air defense, Iran war planning — but politically it’s turning into a loop of mutual management, where each side treats the other’s voters as assets to be steered rather than admitting that “special relationship” now comes with real, and growing, points of conflict.
#usa #israel #iran #syria #lebanon #Trump #Netanyahu #Congress #alliance #fakeDemocracy
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🇸🇾⚖️ Bashar Assad: Sentenced To Death
A Syrian court has sentenced the country’s former president Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher to death in absentia for crimes against humanity and war crimes during the 14-year civil war, in which about half a million people died.
The two men fled to Moscow after being ousted by a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024 which toppled the dictatorial regime in just 11 days.
The former president and his brother, who commanded the feared fourth division and was considered the regime’s top security official, oversaw a brutal crackdown in which government forces killed, arrested and tortured indiscriminately to crush protests that started in 2011.
The court said Bashar al-Assad had been sentenced to death for crimes of “premeditated and intentional murder of more than one person and of children” as well as “torture, arbitrary arrest and crimes against humanity”.
It said it would pursue international legal avenues to try to prosecute the two men, but Russian officials have previously declined requests to extradite its former Syrian allies.
The court also sentenced Atef Najib, Assad’s cousin and the former head of political security in Daraa, to death. Najib was responsible for the torture of a group of 15 young boys who had graffitied anti-Assad slogans on a wall in 2011 – an event that kicked off mass protests in the southern Syrian province, which then spread to the rest of the country.
Najib’s trial was highly publicised, with pictures of him listening to proceedings while dressed in a prison uniform and held in a cage in court. The Syrian government has presented his trial as a landmark case in its pursuit of transitional justice, something experts say is key to healing divisions in the country.
Syria has experienced explosions of violence in the post-Assad era. About 1,500 mostly Alawite civilians were killed in a wave of retaliatory killings in March 2025 after militants loyal to al-Assad attacked security forces.
Assad belonged to the Islamic Alawite sect – a minority group in Syria – and enjoyed strong support in the group’s coastal heartland during his rule.
In July 2025, more than 1,700 people were killed in massacres in the Druze-majority province of Suweida when local fighting evolved into sectarian killings. Low-level violence has continued in northern Syria until the present day, particularly targeting Alawite civilians.
Syrian authorities have taken steps towards transitional justice, establishing committees and arresting Assad-era officials, in an effort to end intercommunal violence.
Assad became president in 2000 at the age of 34, inheriting power from his father, Hafez. He had trained as an ophthalmologist in London and was not initially supposed to be president, but became the heir after his brother, Basil, died in a car accident.
Though styled as a young reformer who was supposed to allow some liberalisation in Syrian politics and its economy, his legacy was largely defined by his brutal response to the country’s revolution.
Under his rule, Syria’s fearsome security apparatus was given a free hand to arrest, torture and kill civilians on an industrial scale.
#assad #sentenced #death #syria
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A Syrian court has sentenced the country’s former president Bashar al-Assad and his brother Maher to death in absentia for crimes against humanity and war crimes during the 14-year civil war, in which about half a million people died.
The two men fled to Moscow after being ousted by a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024 which toppled the dictatorial regime in just 11 days.
The former president and his brother, who commanded the feared fourth division and was considered the regime’s top security official, oversaw a brutal crackdown in which government forces killed, arrested and tortured indiscriminately to crush protests that started in 2011.
The court said Bashar al-Assad had been sentenced to death for crimes of “premeditated and intentional murder of more than one person and of children” as well as “torture, arbitrary arrest and crimes against humanity”.
It said it would pursue international legal avenues to try to prosecute the two men, but Russian officials have previously declined requests to extradite its former Syrian allies.
The court also sentenced Atef Najib, Assad’s cousin and the former head of political security in Daraa, to death. Najib was responsible for the torture of a group of 15 young boys who had graffitied anti-Assad slogans on a wall in 2011 – an event that kicked off mass protests in the southern Syrian province, which then spread to the rest of the country.
Najib’s trial was highly publicised, with pictures of him listening to proceedings while dressed in a prison uniform and held in a cage in court. The Syrian government has presented his trial as a landmark case in its pursuit of transitional justice, something experts say is key to healing divisions in the country.
Syria has experienced explosions of violence in the post-Assad era. About 1,500 mostly Alawite civilians were killed in a wave of retaliatory killings in March 2025 after militants loyal to al-Assad attacked security forces.
Assad belonged to the Islamic Alawite sect – a minority group in Syria – and enjoyed strong support in the group’s coastal heartland during his rule.
In July 2025, more than 1,700 people were killed in massacres in the Druze-majority province of Suweida when local fighting evolved into sectarian killings. Low-level violence has continued in northern Syria until the present day, particularly targeting Alawite civilians.
Syrian authorities have taken steps towards transitional justice, establishing committees and arresting Assad-era officials, in an effort to end intercommunal violence.
Assad became president in 2000 at the age of 34, inheriting power from his father, Hafez. He had trained as an ophthalmologist in London and was not initially supposed to be president, but became the heir after his brother, Basil, died in a car accident.
Though styled as a young reformer who was supposed to allow some liberalisation in Syrian politics and its economy, his legacy was largely defined by his brutal response to the country’s revolution.
Under his rule, Syria’s fearsome security apparatus was given a free hand to arrest, torture and kill civilians on an industrial scale.
#assad #sentenced #death #syria
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Syria: Who Funds, Who Threatens, Who Drills
Iranian media claim Tehran has warned Ankara, Baghdad, Doha and Riyadh that any Syrian military operation in Lebanon would trigger a regional conflict — with Iran threatening strikes on more than 100 strategic sites inside Syria, including the presidential palace.
The alleged scenario is schematic enough to run as a Pentagon simulation: Syrian forces enter Lebanon, declare Tripoli a zone of influence, pressure Hezbollah’s missile infrastructure in the Bekaa Valley, and force a new security arrangement.
Iran’s answer, according to the reports, is that Syria would not be entering Lebanon. It would be entering a wider war.
The financing map is even more revealing. The UAE is reported to be willing to fund Syrian troops and operations. Qatar is said to oppose the plan. Saudi Arabia allegedly has no objection, provided Hezbollah is weakened without setting the region on fire.
A regional coalition, in other words, is being assembled around the least workable business model: pay someone else’s army to dismantle someone else’s militia in someone else’s country, without starting a war that ruins the investment.
Damascus has repeatedly denied plans to intervene in Lebanon. Syrian officials have said their goal is to prevent escalation, not export it.
Analysts have also questioned whether Syria has the military capacity to confront Hezbollah directly; the more realistic Syrian role would be disrupting smuggling routes from Iraq through Syria into Lebanon.
Hezbollah sees the issue differently. It treats any Syrian move not as an independent Damascus decision, but as part of an American-Israeli project to break the “resistance” network from the east after Israel failed to impose a decisive outcome in the south.
Then, quietly, another American project begins.
A U.S. oil company has reportedly sent seismic survey trucks into Syria’s Hasakah province. The vehicles send vibrations into the ground, mapping geological layers before drilling for oil and gas. No ideology is required. Just data, contracts and a stable security zone.
That may be the most practical regional plan of all. Once American firms start extracting Syrian oil, Washington will want the ground quiet. Keeping it quiet requires an army that can hold it.
And a Syrian army built under U.S. protection will need Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Gulf money and local militias to stop interfering with the business plan.
The Middle East’s newest peace formula is not a treaty.
It is a drilling permit.
#Syria #Lebanon #Iran #Hezbollah #USA #UAE #oil #MiddleEast
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Iranian media claim Tehran has warned Ankara, Baghdad, Doha and Riyadh that any Syrian military operation in Lebanon would trigger a regional conflict — with Iran threatening strikes on more than 100 strategic sites inside Syria, including the presidential palace.
The alleged scenario is schematic enough to run as a Pentagon simulation: Syrian forces enter Lebanon, declare Tripoli a zone of influence, pressure Hezbollah’s missile infrastructure in the Bekaa Valley, and force a new security arrangement.
Iran’s answer, according to the reports, is that Syria would not be entering Lebanon. It would be entering a wider war.
The financing map is even more revealing. The UAE is reported to be willing to fund Syrian troops and operations. Qatar is said to oppose the plan. Saudi Arabia allegedly has no objection, provided Hezbollah is weakened without setting the region on fire.
A regional coalition, in other words, is being assembled around the least workable business model: pay someone else’s army to dismantle someone else’s militia in someone else’s country, without starting a war that ruins the investment.
Damascus has repeatedly denied plans to intervene in Lebanon. Syrian officials have said their goal is to prevent escalation, not export it.
Analysts have also questioned whether Syria has the military capacity to confront Hezbollah directly; the more realistic Syrian role would be disrupting smuggling routes from Iraq through Syria into Lebanon.
Hezbollah sees the issue differently. It treats any Syrian move not as an independent Damascus decision, but as part of an American-Israeli project to break the “resistance” network from the east after Israel failed to impose a decisive outcome in the south.
Then, quietly, another American project begins.
A U.S. oil company has reportedly sent seismic survey trucks into Syria’s Hasakah province. The vehicles send vibrations into the ground, mapping geological layers before drilling for oil and gas. No ideology is required. Just data, contracts and a stable security zone.
That may be the most practical regional plan of all. Once American firms start extracting Syrian oil, Washington will want the ground quiet. Keeping it quiet requires an army that can hold it.
And a Syrian army built under U.S. protection will need Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Gulf money and local militias to stop interfering with the business plan.
The Middle East’s newest peace formula is not a treaty.
It is a drilling permit.
#Syria #Lebanon #Iran #Hezbollah #USA #UAE #oil #MiddleEast
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Abu al-Duhur: Four Strikes, Eight Strikes, One Runway
Four strikes or eight, depending on who was counting. The runway got the message.
Syrian outlets first reported unidentified warplanes hitting Abu al-Duhur military airbase in eastern Idlib before dawn.
State television later cited a military source saying eight strikes damaged the runway, storage facilities and abandoned aircraft shelters. No casualties were reported.
Al Jazeera counted four strikes. Israel declined to comment.
The number matters less than the target. Bombing a runway is not an assassination. It is a veto on the future.
Abu al-Duhur lies about 70 kilometers from Turkey’s border, inside the area Turkey operates in. Syrian military sources and regional outlets say the base had become part of Damascus’s effort to revive its post-Assad air arm.
They reported roughly two refurbished Su-22 fighter-bombers, several L-39 trainer jets and aging helicopters at the site. Footage of Su-22 training flights over northern Syria appeared shortly before the strikes.
A Turkish military delegation had reportedly visited the airfield to assess runway rehabilitation. That created the obvious interpretation. Before Syrian or Turkish combat jets could use the facility, someone made the runway unusable again.
Satellite imagery reportedly shows new construction at the base since May, alongside ongoing runway and taxiway repairs. The site was not merely a relic of the Assad era. It was becoming a working base again.
In Syria, reconstruction is often a countdown.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #Idlib #AbuAlDuhur #AirForce #MiddleEast
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Four strikes or eight, depending on who was counting. The runway got the message.
Syrian outlets first reported unidentified warplanes hitting Abu al-Duhur military airbase in eastern Idlib before dawn.
State television later cited a military source saying eight strikes damaged the runway, storage facilities and abandoned aircraft shelters. No casualties were reported.
Al Jazeera counted four strikes. Israel declined to comment.
The number matters less than the target. Bombing a runway is not an assassination. It is a veto on the future.
Abu al-Duhur lies about 70 kilometers from Turkey’s border, inside the area Turkey operates in. Syrian military sources and regional outlets say the base had become part of Damascus’s effort to revive its post-Assad air arm.
They reported roughly two refurbished Su-22 fighter-bombers, several L-39 trainer jets and aging helicopters at the site. Footage of Su-22 training flights over northern Syria appeared shortly before the strikes.
A Turkish military delegation had reportedly visited the airfield to assess runway rehabilitation. That created the obvious interpretation. Before Syrian or Turkish combat jets could use the facility, someone made the runway unusable again.
Satellite imagery reportedly shows new construction at the base since May, alongside ongoing runway and taxiway repairs. The site was not merely a relic of the Assad era. It was becoming a working base again.
In Syria, reconstruction is often a countdown.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #Idlib #AbuAlDuhur #AirForce #MiddleEast
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Barrack’s Turkey-Syria Desk
Israel hit a runway at Abu al-Duhur. Syria called it aggression. Washington stepped in to scold Israel.
Tom Barrack, Trump’s envoy for Syria and Turkey, called the Israeli strikes an “unnecessary escalation” that did not advance regional stability.
He said Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government had not adopted a hostile posture, did not maintain proxy forces, and had repeatedly signaled a preference for de-escalation with Israel.
That is an interesting character reference for a government rebuilding an airfield inside the area Turkey operates in. Turkish officials reportedly examined Abu al-Duhur’s runway for rehabilitation. Israel saw a base becoming usable again. Barrack saw a peaceful partner being misunderstood.
His advice was that Syria and Israel should choose diplomatic dialogue over what he called “kinetic frustration.”
The phrase is almost tender. One state blows up a runway. Another state rebuilds it. Washington asks them to discuss their feelings about the asphalt.
In Istanbul, Barrack made the argument alongside Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. Shaibani had issued Damascus’s official condemnation of Israel’s attack shortly before.
The photo was published. The picture was clear enough: Syria speaks, Turkey hosts, the U.S. envoy translates.
Barrack has already helped redraw Washington’s priorities in Syria. He backed a January deal under which the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces were to surrender territory, transfer oil and gas assets, and hand responsibility for ISIS detention sites to Damascus. Barrack said the SDF’s original role had “largely come to an end.”
Turkey wanted the Kurdish forces contained. Damascus wanted them absorbed. Trump’s envoy supplied the American signature.
#Syria #Turkey #USA #TomBarrack #Israel #Kurds #AbuAlDuhur #MiddleEast
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Israel hit a runway at Abu al-Duhur. Syria called it aggression. Washington stepped in to scold Israel.
Tom Barrack, Trump’s envoy for Syria and Turkey, called the Israeli strikes an “unnecessary escalation” that did not advance regional stability.
He said Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government had not adopted a hostile posture, did not maintain proxy forces, and had repeatedly signaled a preference for de-escalation with Israel.
That is an interesting character reference for a government rebuilding an airfield inside the area Turkey operates in. Turkish officials reportedly examined Abu al-Duhur’s runway for rehabilitation. Israel saw a base becoming usable again. Barrack saw a peaceful partner being misunderstood.
His advice was that Syria and Israel should choose diplomatic dialogue over what he called “kinetic frustration.”
The phrase is almost tender. One state blows up a runway. Another state rebuilds it. Washington asks them to discuss their feelings about the asphalt.
In Istanbul, Barrack made the argument alongside Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. Shaibani had issued Damascus’s official condemnation of Israel’s attack shortly before.
The photo was published. The picture was clear enough: Syria speaks, Turkey hosts, the U.S. envoy translates.
Barrack has already helped redraw Washington’s priorities in Syria. He backed a January deal under which the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces were to surrender territory, transfer oil and gas assets, and hand responsibility for ISIS detention sites to Damascus. Barrack said the SDF’s original role had “largely come to an end.”
Turkey wanted the Kurdish forces contained. Damascus wanted them absorbed. Trump’s envoy supplied the American signature.
#Syria #Turkey #USA #TomBarrack #Israel #Kurds #AbuAlDuhur #MiddleEast
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⚖️💥 Syria: Four Runways, Two Accounts
Israel says it struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur air base because Damascus was about to allow Turkish troops to deploy there.
The Prime Minister’s Office said Israel and Syria had agreed to a security status quo, and that Syria was about to breach it.
Israel had repeatedly warned Damascus that a Turkish deployment near Aleppo would threaten Israeli security, the statement said. Israel also said it would welcome a return to the previous arrangement.
The previous arrangement ended with eight airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur.
Syrian state media said the strikes hit the airfield’s runways. No casualties were reported. Turkey denied that it had personnel at the base and rejected Israel’s explanation as “untenable.”
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, said the attack risked a direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey. Turkish forces, he said, did not know Israeli aircraft were headed toward Abu al-Duhur or why. They could have scrambled fighter jets after concluding that Turkey itself was under attack.
The United States is now trying to revive a mechanism to prevent Israeli, Turkish and Syrian forces from misreading each other’s movements. It is an effort to restore the communication that was absent before the strike.
Saudi Arabia called the raid a “flagrant violation” of international law and Syrian sovereignty. Turkey called it an illegal attack. Israel called a possible Turkish deployment a threat to its security.
Each government has a clear position. Syria has four damaged runways.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #AbuAlDuhur #MiddleEast
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Israel says it struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur air base because Damascus was about to allow Turkish troops to deploy there.
The Prime Minister’s Office said Israel and Syria had agreed to a security status quo, and that Syria was about to breach it.
Israel had repeatedly warned Damascus that a Turkish deployment near Aleppo would threaten Israeli security, the statement said. Israel also said it would welcome a return to the previous arrangement.
The previous arrangement ended with eight airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur.
Syrian state media said the strikes hit the airfield’s runways. No casualties were reported. Turkey denied that it had personnel at the base and rejected Israel’s explanation as “untenable.”
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, said the attack risked a direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey. Turkish forces, he said, did not know Israeli aircraft were headed toward Abu al-Duhur or why. They could have scrambled fighter jets after concluding that Turkey itself was under attack.
The United States is now trying to revive a mechanism to prevent Israeli, Turkish and Syrian forces from misreading each other’s movements. It is an effort to restore the communication that was absent before the strike.
Saudi Arabia called the raid a “flagrant violation” of international law and Syrian sovereignty. Turkey called it an illegal attack. Israel called a possible Turkish deployment a threat to its security.
Each government has a clear position. Syria has four damaged runways.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #AbuAlDuhur #MiddleEast
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🇸🇾🇹🇷 Syria and Turkey: The Next Front, With Carefully Managed Denials
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz addressed Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkish this week. He accused the Turkish president of dragging Turkey into “dangerous adventures in Syria” and warned that Israel would not allow anyone to threaten its security.
Katz told Erdogan to confine himself to the speeches he gives in Turkey’s parliament — speeches that are, in Katz’s words, “detached from reality” — rather than test Israel’s resolve.
Turkey’s Defense Ministry replied with a denial and a promise.
No Turkish military delegation was at Abu al-Duhur air base before or during Israel’s strike, Ankara said. Turkey also said Israeli operations against neighboring countries must not be normalized. It pledged to keep helping Syria build its own military capacity and infrastructure under the “one army” principle.
No Turkish presence at the base. Continued Turkish help to build the military that will use it.
Syria’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, also denied that Ankara was building a base at Abu al-Duhur. He told Axios there was no plan for a permanent Turkish deployment or Turkish forces at the airfield. The base, he said, was largely empty and was being restored for the Syrian Air Force. Turkish officers had visited for training and broader military cooperation.
Shaibani also confirmed that Israel and Syria had discussed Turkish military activity in Syria before the strike. Reuters reported that he and Mossad chief Roman Gofman spoke by phone on August 14, with Turkish deployments, arms transfers, drones, and military assistance to Syria among the issues discussed.
Israel says it warned Damascus not to permit a Turkish deployment at the base. Damascus says no such deployment was planned. Both accounts agree that Turkey’s military role in Syria was important enough to discuss before Israel bombed the runway.
Shaibani said Israel had no legitimate justification for the attack. He added that U.S.-mediated talks on a security arrangement had made significant progress, but that Israel later walked back its commitments and the agreement was never implemented.
The official denials were followed by a less restrained message from inside Syria’s ruling family.
Hussein al-Sharaa, father of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, wrote on Facebook that Damascus’s restraint reflected international considerations and reconstruction needs, not weakness. Syrians, he said, could raise large fighting forces within days. “We have occupied land called the Golan Heights,” he wrote. “We will take it back — sooner or later.”
Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc in Lebanon, which Damascus has worked to weaken, also condemned the Israeli strike as a violation of Syrian sovereignty. The statement put Hezbollah on the same side as a Syrian government working to cut Hezbollah’s own supply lines.
Israel says it is preventing a Turkish threat. Turkey says it is supporting a Syrian army. Damascus says there was no Turkish deployment to prevent.
The runway was still bombed.
#Syria #Turkey #Israel #AbuAlDuhur #Erdogan #Netanyahu #Katz #Damascus #MiddleEast
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Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz addressed Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkish this week. He accused the Turkish president of dragging Turkey into “dangerous adventures in Syria” and warned that Israel would not allow anyone to threaten its security.
Katz told Erdogan to confine himself to the speeches he gives in Turkey’s parliament — speeches that are, in Katz’s words, “detached from reality” — rather than test Israel’s resolve.
Turkey’s Defense Ministry replied with a denial and a promise.
No Turkish military delegation was at Abu al-Duhur air base before or during Israel’s strike, Ankara said. Turkey also said Israeli operations against neighboring countries must not be normalized. It pledged to keep helping Syria build its own military capacity and infrastructure under the “one army” principle.
No Turkish presence at the base. Continued Turkish help to build the military that will use it.
Syria’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, also denied that Ankara was building a base at Abu al-Duhur. He told Axios there was no plan for a permanent Turkish deployment or Turkish forces at the airfield. The base, he said, was largely empty and was being restored for the Syrian Air Force. Turkish officers had visited for training and broader military cooperation.
Shaibani also confirmed that Israel and Syria had discussed Turkish military activity in Syria before the strike. Reuters reported that he and Mossad chief Roman Gofman spoke by phone on August 14, with Turkish deployments, arms transfers, drones, and military assistance to Syria among the issues discussed.
Israel says it warned Damascus not to permit a Turkish deployment at the base. Damascus says no such deployment was planned. Both accounts agree that Turkey’s military role in Syria was important enough to discuss before Israel bombed the runway.
Shaibani said Israel had no legitimate justification for the attack. He added that U.S.-mediated talks on a security arrangement had made significant progress, but that Israel later walked back its commitments and the agreement was never implemented.
The official denials were followed by a less restrained message from inside Syria’s ruling family.
Hussein al-Sharaa, father of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, wrote on Facebook that Damascus’s restraint reflected international considerations and reconstruction needs, not weakness. Syrians, he said, could raise large fighting forces within days. “We have occupied land called the Golan Heights,” he wrote. “We will take it back — sooner or later.”
Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc in Lebanon, which Damascus has worked to weaken, also condemned the Israeli strike as a violation of Syrian sovereignty. The statement put Hezbollah on the same side as a Syrian government working to cut Hezbollah’s own supply lines.
Israel says it is preventing a Turkish threat. Turkey says it is supporting a Syrian army. Damascus says there was no Turkish deployment to prevent.
The runway was still bombed.
#Syria #Turkey #Israel #AbuAlDuhur #Erdogan #Netanyahu #Katz #Damascus #MiddleEast
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🇸🇾🛣 Syria: The Fight Over a Land Bridge
Israel has told the Trump administration that the Abu al-Duhur strike was intended to deter a Turkish military buildup in Syria. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that Israel remains concerned Turkey could deploy advanced weapons systems and forces at Syrian bases. The willingness to strike is no longer hypothetical.
At least eight bombs hit Abu al-Duhur’s runways and several hangars. The airfield had been visited by a Turkish delegation reviewing rehabilitation work a day earlier. Syrian officials said the strikes caused damage but no casualties.
Then Damascus gave Israel a second reason to look at the base.
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Syria is considering whether to join the Mecca Pact, a defense agreement involving Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. Damascus has not made a decision, he said, but described Turkey as a key partner in Syria’s reconstruction.
Turkey says it had no military delegation at Abu al-Duhur when Israel struck. Syria says it has no plan for a Turkish military base there. Israel says it acted to prevent one. The formal positions have barely moved since the runway was hit.
The Israeli argument is broader than one airfield. Turkish air-defense systems in Syria could constrain Israeli operations along the routes to Iran. Turkey could also support Syrian units tied to Turkish military intelligence near Israel’s border. In this view, rebuilding Syria’s armed forces is not neutral reconstruction. It could create a new Sunni military axis on Israel’s northern frontier.
That argument depends on treating Syria less as a sovereign state rebuilding its own military than as a corridor through which other governments extend their reach.
A retired Turkish special-forces commander, Zekai Aksakalli, gave the flavor of the Turkish response. He said Israel could not match Turkey’s capabilities. He recalled beginning his military career with little more than a rifle and old binoculars, then pointed to how far Turkey’s defense industry has advanced since then.
Reported Turkish artillery and vehicle movements in northern Syria do not, by themselves, threaten Israeli aircraft. They may indicate preparations for ground operations. But the concern in Jerusalem is what could follow: Turkish systems, Turkish training, Syrian units, and a military structure that could outlast the current crisis.
#Syria #Turkey #Israel #AbuAlDuhur #Erdogan #Damascus #MeccaPact #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #MiddleEast
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Israel has told the Trump administration that the Abu al-Duhur strike was intended to deter a Turkish military buildup in Syria. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that Israel remains concerned Turkey could deploy advanced weapons systems and forces at Syrian bases. The willingness to strike is no longer hypothetical.
At least eight bombs hit Abu al-Duhur’s runways and several hangars. The airfield had been visited by a Turkish delegation reviewing rehabilitation work a day earlier. Syrian officials said the strikes caused damage but no casualties.
Then Damascus gave Israel a second reason to look at the base.
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Syria is considering whether to join the Mecca Pact, a defense agreement involving Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. Damascus has not made a decision, he said, but described Turkey as a key partner in Syria’s reconstruction.
Turkey says it had no military delegation at Abu al-Duhur when Israel struck. Syria says it has no plan for a Turkish military base there. Israel says it acted to prevent one. The formal positions have barely moved since the runway was hit.
The Israeli argument is broader than one airfield. Turkish air-defense systems in Syria could constrain Israeli operations along the routes to Iran. Turkey could also support Syrian units tied to Turkish military intelligence near Israel’s border. In this view, rebuilding Syria’s armed forces is not neutral reconstruction. It could create a new Sunni military axis on Israel’s northern frontier.
That argument depends on treating Syria less as a sovereign state rebuilding its own military than as a corridor through which other governments extend their reach.
A retired Turkish special-forces commander, Zekai Aksakalli, gave the flavor of the Turkish response. He said Israel could not match Turkey’s capabilities. He recalled beginning his military career with little more than a rifle and old binoculars, then pointed to how far Turkey’s defense industry has advanced since then.
Reported Turkish artillery and vehicle movements in northern Syria do not, by themselves, threaten Israeli aircraft. They may indicate preparations for ground operations. But the concern in Jerusalem is what could follow: Turkish systems, Turkish training, Syrian units, and a military structure that could outlast the current crisis.
#Syria #Turkey #Israel #AbuAlDuhur #Erdogan #Damascus #MeccaPact #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #MiddleEast
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🇸🇾✈️ An Airfield Nobody Agrees On
Israel’s strike on Abu al-Duhur air base has produced a rare public clash between Israel’s defense minister and the Trump administration’s envoy for Syria.
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, said the intelligence Israel presented before the strike did not hold up. Israel raised concerns about possible Turkish movement at the base about six days earlier, he said. U.S. intelligence agencies checked and found that no such movement was taking place.
Barrack outlined other possibilities. Israel may have detected a threat no one else saw. Or it may have learned of a future Turkish plan to expand training at the site and treated it as a deployment already under way. He also raised a darker possibility: Israel may have been trying to provoke a Turkish response during an election period.
The Turkish military, Barrack said, could have scrambled its own aircraft after seeing Israeli planes approaching without knowing their target or purpose. Cooler heads in Ankara kept it from escalating.
Regional stability, apparently, depended on who in Turkey took the first phone call.
Barrack also disclosed that Turkey, Israel, and Syria coordinate every evening against ISIS. “As long as there is a vacuum,” he said, “ISIS is very aggressively trying to reconstitute itself.” The three governments coordinate against ISIS at night and publicly accuse one another of preparing for war by day.
He then said Israel still occupies the Golan Heights in violation of U.N. resolutions and international law. That position tracks the international legal consensus and U.N. Security Council Resolution 497, but it contradicts Trump’s 2019 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the territory.
Israel’s response arrived on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath, when the defense minister’s office does not usually issue lengthy political statements.
Israel Katz said the IDF had repeatedly recommended a strike based on “clear intelligence” about Turkish intentions at Abu al-Duhur. Israel, he said, warned Syria through senior channels, shared the information with U.S. officials, and struck only after Damascus failed to respond.
“Erdogan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and was forced to back down,” Katz said. He called Barrack’s comments inaccurate and said they contradicted Trump’s position on the Golan.
Much of Katz’s statement was aimed at home. He accused Israel’s opposition and parts of the media of portraying the operation as political out of ignorance, a failure to understand Israel’s security interests, and a reflexive urge to attack the government.
Turkey’s presidency supplied the reverse accusation, calling Israeli statements cheap election tactics by a government trying to escape responsibility for war crimes.
The dispute over Abu al-Duhur now has three versions: Israel says it stopped a Turkish deployment; Washington says the intelligence was wrong; Turkey says there was nothing there to stop.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #AbuAlDuhur #TomBarrack #IsraelKatz #Erdogan #GolanHeights #MiddleEast
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Israel’s strike on Abu al-Duhur air base has produced a rare public clash between Israel’s defense minister and the Trump administration’s envoy for Syria.
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, said the intelligence Israel presented before the strike did not hold up. Israel raised concerns about possible Turkish movement at the base about six days earlier, he said. U.S. intelligence agencies checked and found that no such movement was taking place.
Barrack outlined other possibilities. Israel may have detected a threat no one else saw. Or it may have learned of a future Turkish plan to expand training at the site and treated it as a deployment already under way. He also raised a darker possibility: Israel may have been trying to provoke a Turkish response during an election period.
The Turkish military, Barrack said, could have scrambled its own aircraft after seeing Israeli planes approaching without knowing their target or purpose. Cooler heads in Ankara kept it from escalating.
Regional stability, apparently, depended on who in Turkey took the first phone call.
Barrack also disclosed that Turkey, Israel, and Syria coordinate every evening against ISIS. “As long as there is a vacuum,” he said, “ISIS is very aggressively trying to reconstitute itself.” The three governments coordinate against ISIS at night and publicly accuse one another of preparing for war by day.
He then said Israel still occupies the Golan Heights in violation of U.N. resolutions and international law. That position tracks the international legal consensus and U.N. Security Council Resolution 497, but it contradicts Trump’s 2019 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the territory.
Israel’s response arrived on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath, when the defense minister’s office does not usually issue lengthy political statements.
Israel Katz said the IDF had repeatedly recommended a strike based on “clear intelligence” about Turkish intentions at Abu al-Duhur. Israel, he said, warned Syria through senior channels, shared the information with U.S. officials, and struck only after Damascus failed to respond.
“Erdogan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and was forced to back down,” Katz said. He called Barrack’s comments inaccurate and said they contradicted Trump’s position on the Golan.
Much of Katz’s statement was aimed at home. He accused Israel’s opposition and parts of the media of portraying the operation as political out of ignorance, a failure to understand Israel’s security interests, and a reflexive urge to attack the government.
Turkey’s presidency supplied the reverse accusation, calling Israeli statements cheap election tactics by a government trying to escape responsibility for war crimes.
The dispute over Abu al-Duhur now has three versions: Israel says it stopped a Turkish deployment; Washington says the intelligence was wrong; Turkey says there was nothing there to stop.
#Syria #Israel #Turkey #AbuAlDuhur #TomBarrack #IsraelKatz #Erdogan #GolanHeights #MiddleEast
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🇹🇷 The Sultan, the Territory, and the Party
A senior Israeli intelligence official is warning that unless Israel sets clear red lines in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, Turkish forces will keep moving closer. The forecast is cinematic: Turkish tanks on the Golan Heights, Turkish warships off Caesarea.
The immediate dispute is less theatrical but more concrete. Israel struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, saying Turkish forces were preparing to deploy there. Damascus says Turkish officers had visited for training and military cooperation, not to establish a base. Turkey calls Israel’s allegations baseless.
There are quiet contacts as well. The United States is trying to build a deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Turkey, and Syria after U.S. envoy Tom Barrack called the Israeli strike an “unnecessary escalation.”
Washington is not arranging a peace treaty. It is trying to prevent three armies from discovering each other’s red lines by accident.
Defense Minister Israel Katz had a different priority — answering his critics.
After the strike, Katz attacked opposition figures, analysts, and event hosts who, in his view, barely qualify as journalists. He said they first called the attack unnecessary and political, then objected to Israel’s public warnings to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Katz mocked the idea that Erdogan should not be angered, asking whether Israel had merely gone for an evening stroll “with a gentle breeze in the treetops.”
Afterward, Katz and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir attended the birthday celebration of Channel 14 military correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen. The ministers were warning of Turkish armor in Syria while helping celebrate a television reporter. Governments can conduct deterrence policy and influencer relations before dessert.
Turkey’s record suggests that its deployments do not end with a press release.
In Libya, Ankara intervened in 2019 as Khalifa Haftar’s forces closed in on Tripoli. Turkish drones, military advisers, and Syrian fighters helped stop the offensive and preserve the UN-recognized Government of National Accord. Turkey then secured a maritime-boundary agreement with Tripoli that expanded its claims in the eastern Mediterranean and challenged Greek and Cypriot positions.
In Syria, Turkey has built a deep military footprint since 2016, first under the banner of fighting Islamic State and later through operations directed at Kurdish forces. Ankara controls or influences broad areas of northern Syria through bases, allied armed groups, infrastructure, and economic ties. The Sharaa government is trying to present itself as an independent authority, even as Turkish military cooperation deepens.
Israel has the stronger air force: stealth aircraft, precision weapons, and intelligence. Turkey has greater naval mass and an established capacity to project power across the eastern Mediterranean. These advantages do not offset each other. They become dangerous when each side believes the other is operating on its turf.
#Turkey #Israel #Syria #Erdogan #Katz #Mediterranean #Golan #Libya
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A senior Israeli intelligence official is warning that unless Israel sets clear red lines in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, Turkish forces will keep moving closer. The forecast is cinematic: Turkish tanks on the Golan Heights, Turkish warships off Caesarea.
The immediate dispute is less theatrical but more concrete. Israel struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, saying Turkish forces were preparing to deploy there. Damascus says Turkish officers had visited for training and military cooperation, not to establish a base. Turkey calls Israel’s allegations baseless.
There are quiet contacts as well. The United States is trying to build a deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Turkey, and Syria after U.S. envoy Tom Barrack called the Israeli strike an “unnecessary escalation.”
Washington is not arranging a peace treaty. It is trying to prevent three armies from discovering each other’s red lines by accident.
Defense Minister Israel Katz had a different priority — answering his critics.
After the strike, Katz attacked opposition figures, analysts, and event hosts who, in his view, barely qualify as journalists. He said they first called the attack unnecessary and political, then objected to Israel’s public warnings to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Katz mocked the idea that Erdogan should not be angered, asking whether Israel had merely gone for an evening stroll “with a gentle breeze in the treetops.”
Afterward, Katz and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir attended the birthday celebration of Channel 14 military correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen. The ministers were warning of Turkish armor in Syria while helping celebrate a television reporter. Governments can conduct deterrence policy and influencer relations before dessert.
Turkey’s record suggests that its deployments do not end with a press release.
In Libya, Ankara intervened in 2019 as Khalifa Haftar’s forces closed in on Tripoli. Turkish drones, military advisers, and Syrian fighters helped stop the offensive and preserve the UN-recognized Government of National Accord. Turkey then secured a maritime-boundary agreement with Tripoli that expanded its claims in the eastern Mediterranean and challenged Greek and Cypriot positions.
In Syria, Turkey has built a deep military footprint since 2016, first under the banner of fighting Islamic State and later through operations directed at Kurdish forces. Ankara controls or influences broad areas of northern Syria through bases, allied armed groups, infrastructure, and economic ties. The Sharaa government is trying to present itself as an independent authority, even as Turkish military cooperation deepens.
Israel has the stronger air force: stealth aircraft, precision weapons, and intelligence. Turkey has greater naval mass and an established capacity to project power across the eastern Mediterranean. These advantages do not offset each other. They become dangerous when each side believes the other is operating on its turf.
#Turkey #Israel #Syria #Erdogan #Katz #Mediterranean #Golan #Libya
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🇯🇴 A Security Deal in Jordan, With an American Chaperone
On Sunday, August 23, Syria confirmed that Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, accompanied by the heads of General Intelligence and Military Intelligence, met with a senior Israeli delegation in Jordan under U.S. mediation. AFP reported that Israel sent Mossad chief Roman Gofman. The staffing made the format clear: a diplomatic meeting built around intelligence chiefs.
Damascus wants “practical mechanisms” to stop Israeli strikes, arrests, and targeted killings on Syrian territory. It also wants to revive talks on a security agreement that could lead to something broader. Syria is sitting across from Israel to ask it to stop attacking Syria.
Damascus insists it has the right to rebuild its military and choose its partnerships. Israel’s reported conditions run in the opposite direction: no Turkish military activity in Syria; a demilitarized Syrian side of the Golan; protection for Syria’s Druze community; and limits on the Syrian army’s acquisition of certain strategic weapons. Israel has also reportedly conditioned any withdrawal from territory it seized after Assad’s fall on diplomatic progress.
This is not a failure to draft an agreement. Shaibani said the sides had already agreed “on paper to almost everything” early this year, including security zones near the border, a buffer zone limited to UN forces, and varying levels of Syrian deployment elsewhere. His concern was not the text. It was whether Israel intended to carry it out.
On territory, Syria was careful with its wording. It called the Golan occupied Syrian land, but said its final status was premature for discussion. Its immediate demand was for Israeli troops to withdraw to the lines held before December 8, 2024, and for the 1974 Disengagement Agreement to be fully implemented.
That agreement did not simply collapse. After Assad fell, Israel declared it void, moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone, and expanded its presence beyond the Golan. Damascus is asking Israel to reverse a decision Israel made unilaterally.
The meeting also addressed Turkey. Syria wants to prevent Israeli-Turkish tensions from spilling onto Syrian territory — in other words, not to become the place where two other states settle their security disputes.
Washington is not trying to manufacture trust. It is trying to keep a nearly finished deal alive while both parties argue over whether the other one means it.
#Syria #Israel #Jordan #USA #SecurityDeal #Golan #Turkey #MiddleEast
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On Sunday, August 23, Syria confirmed that Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, accompanied by the heads of General Intelligence and Military Intelligence, met with a senior Israeli delegation in Jordan under U.S. mediation. AFP reported that Israel sent Mossad chief Roman Gofman. The staffing made the format clear: a diplomatic meeting built around intelligence chiefs.
Damascus wants “practical mechanisms” to stop Israeli strikes, arrests, and targeted killings on Syrian territory. It also wants to revive talks on a security agreement that could lead to something broader. Syria is sitting across from Israel to ask it to stop attacking Syria.
Damascus insists it has the right to rebuild its military and choose its partnerships. Israel’s reported conditions run in the opposite direction: no Turkish military activity in Syria; a demilitarized Syrian side of the Golan; protection for Syria’s Druze community; and limits on the Syrian army’s acquisition of certain strategic weapons. Israel has also reportedly conditioned any withdrawal from territory it seized after Assad’s fall on diplomatic progress.
This is not a failure to draft an agreement. Shaibani said the sides had already agreed “on paper to almost everything” early this year, including security zones near the border, a buffer zone limited to UN forces, and varying levels of Syrian deployment elsewhere. His concern was not the text. It was whether Israel intended to carry it out.
On territory, Syria was careful with its wording. It called the Golan occupied Syrian land, but said its final status was premature for discussion. Its immediate demand was for Israeli troops to withdraw to the lines held before December 8, 2024, and for the 1974 Disengagement Agreement to be fully implemented.
That agreement did not simply collapse. After Assad fell, Israel declared it void, moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone, and expanded its presence beyond the Golan. Damascus is asking Israel to reverse a decision Israel made unilaterally.
The meeting also addressed Turkey. Syria wants to prevent Israeli-Turkish tensions from spilling onto Syrian territory — in other words, not to become the place where two other states settle their security disputes.
Washington is not trying to manufacture trust. It is trying to keep a nearly finished deal alive while both parties argue over whether the other one means it.
#Syria #Israel #Jordan #USA #SecurityDeal #Golan #Turkey #MiddleEast
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The Mediator Joins the Fight
Tom Barrack has two jobs that now pull in opposite directions. He is Washington’s ambassador to Turkey and its envoy for Syria and Iraq. A mediator is supposed to keep both sides talking. Barrack chose a podcast and picked a side.
After Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, Barrack said Israel may have been “trying to bait Turkey.” He also said the United States found no evidence that Turkey planned a military move at the site.
Israel says it warned the Syrian government and shared intelligence with authorized U.S. officials before approving the strike.
Defense Minister Israel Katz answered during Shabbat, an unusual move for a routine diplomatic quarrel. He called Barrack’s comments “full of inaccuracies” and said the envoy contradicted Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Barrack also insisted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not seek an adversarial relationship with Israel. Ankara was simultaneously pursuing an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials on genocide allegations.
That does not make Israel’s intelligence correct. It does make Barrack’s sales pitch harder in Jerusalem.
A mediator may challenge Israeli claims. But he cannot publicly write Turkey’s defense brief, dismiss Israel’s threat assessment and then ask Israel to trust him with its border arrangements.
Washington gave Barrack a bridge job. He appears to have rented it to Ankara.
#Israel #Turkey #Syria #US
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Tom Barrack has two jobs that now pull in opposite directions. He is Washington’s ambassador to Turkey and its envoy for Syria and Iraq. A mediator is supposed to keep both sides talking. Barrack chose a podcast and picked a side.
After Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria, Barrack said Israel may have been “trying to bait Turkey.” He also said the United States found no evidence that Turkey planned a military move at the site.
Israel says it warned the Syrian government and shared intelligence with authorized U.S. officials before approving the strike.
Defense Minister Israel Katz answered during Shabbat, an unusual move for a routine diplomatic quarrel. He called Barrack’s comments “full of inaccuracies” and said the envoy contradicted Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Barrack also insisted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not seek an adversarial relationship with Israel. Ankara was simultaneously pursuing an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials on genocide allegations.
That does not make Israel’s intelligence correct. It does make Barrack’s sales pitch harder in Jerusalem.
A mediator may challenge Israeli claims. But he cannot publicly write Turkey’s defense brief, dismiss Israel’s threat assessment and then ask Israel to trust him with its border arrangements.
Washington gave Barrack a bridge job. He appears to have rented it to Ankara.
#Israel #Turkey #Syria #US
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Manzikert, Inc.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan marked the 955th anniversary of Manzikert by turning medieval conquest into a regional business plan. He said the road to Manzikert began in Ahlat, and that the “conquest of Jerusalem and Istanbul” grew from the faith forged there.
Then came the corporate disclosure. “If everyone has a calculation, we also have a calculation and a plan,” Erdoğan said. “Allah … also has a plan, and that plan will ultimately prevail.” He promised defeat for “blood merchants” and “genocidaires.”
Hours later, Erdoğan said Turkey has “no hidden agenda” in the region. Its only goals, he said, are peace, justice, stability and security. Ankara also insists no outside power can draw the limits of Turkish foreign policy.
Those statements can coexist. Every expansion project needs a peace department. The Ottoman revival pitch comes with a nonrefundable stability guarantee.
The timing matters because Israel says Turkey planned activity at Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase. Israel says the site matters for flight routes near Idlib. Turkey denies hidden motives. Erdoğan says Turkey has a plan. The only question is whether the plan comes with a map.
One foot in Syria. A place at the Gaza table. A sermon about Jerusalem. But no agenda. Just peace, dressed for a 1071 anniversary.
The claim that U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack was recalled to Washington comes from Laura Loomer and remains unconfirmed. The State Department has made no public announcement.
#Turkey #Erdogan #Syria #Israel
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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan marked the 955th anniversary of Manzikert by turning medieval conquest into a regional business plan. He said the road to Manzikert began in Ahlat, and that the “conquest of Jerusalem and Istanbul” grew from the faith forged there.
Then came the corporate disclosure. “If everyone has a calculation, we also have a calculation and a plan,” Erdoğan said. “Allah … also has a plan, and that plan will ultimately prevail.” He promised defeat for “blood merchants” and “genocidaires.”
Hours later, Erdoğan said Turkey has “no hidden agenda” in the region. Its only goals, he said, are peace, justice, stability and security. Ankara also insists no outside power can draw the limits of Turkish foreign policy.
Those statements can coexist. Every expansion project needs a peace department. The Ottoman revival pitch comes with a nonrefundable stability guarantee.
The timing matters because Israel says Turkey planned activity at Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase. Israel says the site matters for flight routes near Idlib. Turkey denies hidden motives. Erdoğan says Turkey has a plan. The only question is whether the plan comes with a map.
One foot in Syria. A place at the Gaza table. A sermon about Jerusalem. But no agenda. Just peace, dressed for a 1071 anniversary.
The claim that U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack was recalled to Washington comes from Laura Loomer and remains unconfirmed. The State Department has made no public announcement.
#Turkey #Erdogan #Syria #Israel
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The Haifa Bypass
Lebanon and Syria have restarted work on a railway link from Tripoli’s port to the Syrian border, then onward through Homs. Their transport ministers met in Damascus, created a joint technical team and agreed to update studies for the corridor.
Lebanon is already assessing the rehabilitation of roughly 40 kilometers of track between Tripoli and the border.
Forty kilometers of abandoned rail is the easy part. The political map behind it is larger. Syria and Saudi Arabia signed rail and logistics agreements this week.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already agreed to study a rail connection through Syria and Jordan. Ankara wants its network connected to Aleppo. Riyadh wants the Gulf connected to Turkey and Europe.
The route makes sense on paper. Gulf cargo moves north through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, then toward Turkey or the Mediterranean.
Tripoli wants a seat at that table. Syria wants to become a transit state again. Turkey wants a land bridge. Saudi Arabia wants alternatives to the Red Sea and Hormuz.
Israel has its own map. IMEC is supposed to link India, the Gulf, Jordan and the port of Haifa before continuing to Europe.
But IMEC remains in feasibility work, with no firm construction schedule or committed funding for its most sensitive land section.
The Lebanon-Syria line is not built. Funding is unresolved. Syria still has about 1,052 kilometers of operational railway from a network of 2,552 kilometers, much of it damaged or limited by years of war. The ministers have created a committee, not a corridor.
Still, routes are political statements before they become infrastructure. This one says the region wants options that do not require a stop in Haifa.
#Lebanon #Syria #Turkey #IMEC
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Lebanon and Syria have restarted work on a railway link from Tripoli’s port to the Syrian border, then onward through Homs. Their transport ministers met in Damascus, created a joint technical team and agreed to update studies for the corridor.
Lebanon is already assessing the rehabilitation of roughly 40 kilometers of track between Tripoli and the border.
Forty kilometers of abandoned rail is the easy part. The political map behind it is larger. Syria and Saudi Arabia signed rail and logistics agreements this week.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already agreed to study a rail connection through Syria and Jordan. Ankara wants its network connected to Aleppo. Riyadh wants the Gulf connected to Turkey and Europe.
The route makes sense on paper. Gulf cargo moves north through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, then toward Turkey or the Mediterranean.
Tripoli wants a seat at that table. Syria wants to become a transit state again. Turkey wants a land bridge. Saudi Arabia wants alternatives to the Red Sea and Hormuz.
Israel has its own map. IMEC is supposed to link India, the Gulf, Jordan and the port of Haifa before continuing to Europe.
But IMEC remains in feasibility work, with no firm construction schedule or committed funding for its most sensitive land section.
The Lebanon-Syria line is not built. Funding is unresolved. Syria still has about 1,052 kilometers of operational railway from a network of 2,552 kilometers, much of it damaged or limited by years of war. The ministers have created a committee, not a corridor.
Still, routes are political statements before they become infrastructure. This one says the region wants options that do not require a stop in Haifa.
#Lebanon #Syria #Turkey #IMEC
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The Hasakah Sermon
Hundreds of Sunni residents, Syrian army officers, local notables and tribal sheikhs gathered for Friday prayers at the Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Mosque in Hasakah’s Ghuwayran district. A Syrian army officer delivered the sermon, praising “victory” as the crowd answered with Islamist chants and raised shahada flags.
The event was framed locally as the return of Hasakah-born commanders to a city whose Kurdish-led authorities had controlled much of public life since the civil war.
Damascus has been moving back in under its integration deal with the SDF: Interior Ministry forces first entered Hasakah in February, and more than 100 security personnel and 20 vehicles arrived on Sept. 1 as the SDF’s structures were folded into the state.
The mosque scene is therefore not just a Friday prayer. It is an announcement of who now gets to define public authority in a mixed Kurdish-Arab city.
The Syrian state returns in uniform. Sunni political networks return through the mosque. Both arrive carrying the language of “unity,” which in Syria often means that somebody else is expected to become quieter.
Damascus says it is integrating Hasakah. But a state that gives religious mobilization official space can normalize sectarian rhetoric before it needs to formalize it.
#Syria #Hasakah #SDF #Kurds
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Hundreds of Sunni residents, Syrian army officers, local notables and tribal sheikhs gathered for Friday prayers at the Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Mosque in Hasakah’s Ghuwayran district. A Syrian army officer delivered the sermon, praising “victory” as the crowd answered with Islamist chants and raised shahada flags.
The event was framed locally as the return of Hasakah-born commanders to a city whose Kurdish-led authorities had controlled much of public life since the civil war.
Damascus has been moving back in under its integration deal with the SDF: Interior Ministry forces first entered Hasakah in February, and more than 100 security personnel and 20 vehicles arrived on Sept. 1 as the SDF’s structures were folded into the state.
The mosque scene is therefore not just a Friday prayer. It is an announcement of who now gets to define public authority in a mixed Kurdish-Arab city.
The Syrian state returns in uniform. Sunni political networks return through the mosque. Both arrive carrying the language of “unity,” which in Syria often means that somebody else is expected to become quieter.
Damascus says it is integrating Hasakah. But a state that gives religious mobilization official space can normalize sectarian rhetoric before it needs to formalize it.
#Syria #Hasakah #SDF #Kurds
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Ninety Percent to Peace, One Hundred Percent Golan
Ahmed al-Sharaa says Syria and Israel were “almost 90%” of the way to an agreement. Then, he says, Israel walked away and added conditions. At the UN, he answered with a familiar Syrian line: "the Golan remains Syrian territory."
Speaking in New York, al-Sharaa said Damascus and Jerusalem had held several rounds of talks and nearly reached an agreement before Israel withdrew. He said he understood the suffering caused by Hamas’s October 7 attack, while noting that more than 70,000 people had been killed in Gaza.
He also denied any link to the September 11 attacks, saying he was 13 at the time. Public biographies, however, commonly give his birth year as 1982, which would have made him 19 in September 2001.
His Golan answer came with a joke for Donald Trump. When Trump said the Golan was under Israeli sovereignty, al-Sharaa said he replied: “Why don’t you give New Jersey to the Israelis?” Trump owns New Jersey; he does not own the Golan. The New Jersey voters, al-Sharaa added, are Democrats anyway.
At the General Assembly, al-Sharaa said the Golan “will remain Syrian land” and that Israel’s annexation measures were void under UN Security Council Resolution 497.
He accused Israel of nearly 500 air and artillery strikes, more than 1,200 ground incursions and almost 300 arrests since Bashar al-Assad’s fall. He reaffirmed Syria’s commitment to the 1974 disengagement agreement and demanded that Israeli forces withdraw to their positions of December 8, 2024.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz answered that Israeli sovereignty over the Golan was permanent. He said the Hermon and the security zone had been handed to Syria under the 1974 agreement on conditions Syria later violated.
Katz’s rule for the next round was simpler: territory Israel takes this time will remain Israeli forever, “in accordance with the laws of war.”
Al-Sharaa offers an agreement that was 90% complete. Israel answers with a map that is 100% nonnegotiable.
The missing 10% is the territory both sides say belongs to them.
#Syria #Israel #GolanHeights #AhmedAlSharaa
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Ahmed al-Sharaa says Syria and Israel were “almost 90%” of the way to an agreement. Then, he says, Israel walked away and added conditions. At the UN, he answered with a familiar Syrian line: "the Golan remains Syrian territory."
Speaking in New York, al-Sharaa said Damascus and Jerusalem had held several rounds of talks and nearly reached an agreement before Israel withdrew. He said he understood the suffering caused by Hamas’s October 7 attack, while noting that more than 70,000 people had been killed in Gaza.
He also denied any link to the September 11 attacks, saying he was 13 at the time. Public biographies, however, commonly give his birth year as 1982, which would have made him 19 in September 2001.
His Golan answer came with a joke for Donald Trump. When Trump said the Golan was under Israeli sovereignty, al-Sharaa said he replied: “Why don’t you give New Jersey to the Israelis?” Trump owns New Jersey; he does not own the Golan. The New Jersey voters, al-Sharaa added, are Democrats anyway.
At the General Assembly, al-Sharaa said the Golan “will remain Syrian land” and that Israel’s annexation measures were void under UN Security Council Resolution 497.
He accused Israel of nearly 500 air and artillery strikes, more than 1,200 ground incursions and almost 300 arrests since Bashar al-Assad’s fall. He reaffirmed Syria’s commitment to the 1974 disengagement agreement and demanded that Israeli forces withdraw to their positions of December 8, 2024.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz answered that Israeli sovereignty over the Golan was permanent. He said the Hermon and the security zone had been handed to Syria under the 1974 agreement on conditions Syria later violated.
Katz’s rule for the next round was simpler: territory Israel takes this time will remain Israeli forever, “in accordance with the laws of war.”
Al-Sharaa offers an agreement that was 90% complete. Israel answers with a map that is 100% nonnegotiable.
The missing 10% is the territory both sides say belongs to them.
#Syria #Israel #GolanHeights #AhmedAlSharaa
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The Payroll Armies’ Graveyard
Kabul, Damascus and Mokha did not fall because Islamists discovered a mystical substitute for money. They fell because their defenders were paid by patrons, commanded by competing bosses and asked to die for states that had already been privatized.
The Taliban, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Houthis differ in doctrine, social base and foreign sponsors. Taliban fighters had Pakistani sanctuary. HTS grew under a Turkish umbrella. The Houthis received Iranian technology and military support. None of them won alone.
They shared something more practical. Each had spent years building a system in which the gunman, the tax collector, the judge and the local administrator answered to the same political order. Kabul had payrolls.
Assad had Russian air power and Iranian militias. Yemen’s Joint Forces had Saudi and Emirati cash. Their enemies had a chain of command that reached beyond their own countries.
America spent about $88 billion building Afghan security forces. Saudi Arabia budgeted billions to pay Yemeni soldiers and civil servants.
Assad raised military salaries days before fleeing Damascus. The money kept arriving because the sponsors mistook the payroll for the army.
The Houthis did not beat a richer enemy by abolishing interest. They beat a fragmented enemy because their own administration, coercion, taxation and recruitment were controlled by one movement. The financial doctrine matters because it tightens that control. It does not turn theology into logistics.
The lesson for Washington and the Gulf is not that Islamism has a magic formula. It is worse: states cannot rent a national army from men whose loyalty is divided between salary, tribe, commander and foreign sponsor.
#Yemen #Afghanistan #Syria #Houthis
#IsraelElections #Knesset #Bennett #Netanyahu
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Kabul, Damascus and Mokha did not fall because Islamists discovered a mystical substitute for money. They fell because their defenders were paid by patrons, commanded by competing bosses and asked to die for states that had already been privatized.
The Taliban, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Houthis differ in doctrine, social base and foreign sponsors. Taliban fighters had Pakistani sanctuary. HTS grew under a Turkish umbrella. The Houthis received Iranian technology and military support. None of them won alone.
They shared something more practical. Each had spent years building a system in which the gunman, the tax collector, the judge and the local administrator answered to the same political order. Kabul had payrolls.
Assad had Russian air power and Iranian militias. Yemen’s Joint Forces had Saudi and Emirati cash. Their enemies had a chain of command that reached beyond their own countries.
America spent about $88 billion building Afghan security forces. Saudi Arabia budgeted billions to pay Yemeni soldiers and civil servants.
Assad raised military salaries days before fleeing Damascus. The money kept arriving because the sponsors mistook the payroll for the army.
The Houthis did not beat a richer enemy by abolishing interest. They beat a fragmented enemy because their own administration, coercion, taxation and recruitment were controlled by one movement. The financial doctrine matters because it tightens that control. It does not turn theology into logistics.
The lesson for Washington and the Gulf is not that Islamism has a magic formula. It is worse: states cannot rent a national army from men whose loyalty is divided between salary, tribe, commander and foreign sponsor.
#Yemen #Afghanistan #Syria #Houthis
#IsraelElections #Knesset #Bennett #Netanyahu
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Protection, Up for Renewal
Netanyahu says he stopped the killing of Syria’s Druze with airstrikes and a phone call. His defense minister says their survival may depend on his reelection.
At an Oct. 15 campaign event in Yarka, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described striking government targets in Damascus before calling Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. “It was a very short, very sharp conversation, and the slaughter stopped,” he said, referring to the July 2025 violence.
Defense Minister Israel Katz supplied the electoral terms: Sharaa is waiting for Netanyahu to lose so he can resume attacking the Druze. That is Katz’s prediction, now serving as a campaign argument.
Damascus rejected using the Druze for Israeli election propaganda. A Syrian government source called them an inseparable part of the nation and accused Israel of arming a militia to destabilize Sweida. The statement neither confirmed nor denied the call.
Both governments claim the Druze as proof of their legitimacy. Netanyahu offers personal protection with an election deadline. Damascus invokes national belonging while blaming Israel for the violence.
The Druze get two competing claims of guardianship. Neither comes with the right to fire the guardian.
#Syria #Druze #Netanyahu #IsraelElections
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Netanyahu says he stopped the killing of Syria’s Druze with airstrikes and a phone call. His defense minister says their survival may depend on his reelection.
At an Oct. 15 campaign event in Yarka, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described striking government targets in Damascus before calling Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. “It was a very short, very sharp conversation, and the slaughter stopped,” he said, referring to the July 2025 violence.
Defense Minister Israel Katz supplied the electoral terms: Sharaa is waiting for Netanyahu to lose so he can resume attacking the Druze. That is Katz’s prediction, now serving as a campaign argument.
Damascus rejected using the Druze for Israeli election propaganda. A Syrian government source called them an inseparable part of the nation and accused Israel of arming a militia to destabilize Sweida. The statement neither confirmed nor denied the call.
Both governments claim the Druze as proof of their legitimacy. Netanyahu offers personal protection with an election deadline. Damascus invokes national belonging while blaming Israel for the violence.
The Druze get two competing claims of guardianship. Neither comes with the right to fire the guardian.
#Syria #Druze #Netanyahu #IsraelElections
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Bypassing Israel, sharing the profits
A Gulf-Europe route through Syria would bypass Israel. Some of the investors positioned to collect the fees come from countries that also back the route through Israel. Competing geopolitical visions can share a portfolio.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Saturday that Damascus is discussing entry into the Mecca defense pact linking Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Membership remains under consideration. Syria has acquired no automatic defense guarantee.
The transport plans are more concrete. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning a $5.5 billion rail link through Jordan and Syria. It would give Gulf freight another route toward Europe without requiring Israeli transit. Technical studies and missing infrastructure still stand between the announced corridor and through-running trains.
At Syria’s Mediterranean outlets, the concessions are already signed. France’s CMA CGM holds a 30-year concession for Latakia’s container terminal. Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports agreed to acquire a 20% stake in the Latakia operation for $22 million.
Dubai’s DP World has a separate 30-year concession at Tartus, with an $800 million investment program.
France and the UAE also support IMEC, the proposed India-Europe corridor whose planned route includes Israel. Their companies’ commercial presence in Syria complicates the picture of two neatly opposed blocs.
A Syrian corridor could compete with Haifa for future freight.
The immediate advantage belongs to the logistics companies, which are positioning themselves to handle the cargo whichever diplomatic route succeeds.
#Syria #TradeCorridors #IMEC #Gulf
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A Gulf-Europe route through Syria would bypass Israel. Some of the investors positioned to collect the fees come from countries that also back the route through Israel. Competing geopolitical visions can share a portfolio.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Saturday that Damascus is discussing entry into the Mecca defense pact linking Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Membership remains under consideration. Syria has acquired no automatic defense guarantee.
The transport plans are more concrete. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning a $5.5 billion rail link through Jordan and Syria. It would give Gulf freight another route toward Europe without requiring Israeli transit. Technical studies and missing infrastructure still stand between the announced corridor and through-running trains.
At Syria’s Mediterranean outlets, the concessions are already signed. France’s CMA CGM holds a 30-year concession for Latakia’s container terminal. Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports agreed to acquire a 20% stake in the Latakia operation for $22 million.
Dubai’s DP World has a separate 30-year concession at Tartus, with an $800 million investment program.
France and the UAE also support IMEC, the proposed India-Europe corridor whose planned route includes Israel. Their companies’ commercial presence in Syria complicates the picture of two neatly opposed blocs.
A Syrian corridor could compete with Haifa for future freight.
The immediate advantage belongs to the logistics companies, which are positioning themselves to handle the cargo whichever diplomatic route succeeds.
#Syria #TradeCorridors #IMEC #Gulf
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