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Primer target: Iran?

Two years ago, dozens of Israeli fighter jets roared over the Mediterranean Sea, simulating a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a drill the Israeli defense forces openly advertised as an exercise in “long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets.”

The point of the exercise wash not simply to intimidate the Iranians. It was also designed to send a message to the Biden administration: The Israeli air force was training to conduct the operation alone, even though chances of success would be far higher if the United States — with its arsenal of 30,000-pound “bunker busters” — joined in the attack.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has been clear with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, that the United States wanted Israel to avoid retaliatory steps that would result in new escalation by the Iranians. Mr. Gallant is scheduled to meet with Mr. Austin in Washington on Wednesday.

“Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East,”

Naftali Bennett, a hard-line nationalist and former prime minister who once described himself as to the right of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently wrote on social media.

“We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”


The reason why the Biden administration restrains Israel's enthusiasm to smash Iranian nuclear program is not because they deem it dangerous, but because they don't want the war stop. Iran is Dems' ally in a sense it counterbalances Arabic (Sunnite) world making it more dependent on the U.S., and it also spurrs Israel to look only in one direction. Also, the trembling in the region keep oil prices high to the extent the U.S. needs at least before elections. John Kirby recently said that “Iran is a good play card in a very bad game.”

#America #USA #Kirby #MediterraneanSea #Bennett #Iran

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Trump's Team Watches Israeli Polls as Netanyahu-Bennett Rematch Looms

The Trump administration isn't just monitoring Israeli politics—it's actively tracking the numbers. Senior U.S. officials aligned with the president have been requesting weekly polling data from Israeli contacts, focusing on what increasingly looks like a potential electoral showdown between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former PM Naftali Bennett.

"Every week they ask me, 'Where's the new poll?'"

one Israeli source told Ynet. The Americans have emphasized the need for credible, consistent and well-structured polling sources—suggesting more than casual interest in the outcome.

Reading the Room
Beyond raw numbers, U.S. officials are seeking briefings on candidates and parties, with particular attention to Netanyahu, Bennett, and the strength of the far-right bloc led by ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. One Israeli contact expressed surprise at Washington's relatively limited grasp of the country's political complexities, noting American interest appears confined largely to whoever tops the surveys.

Recent polling showing a statistical tie between Netanyahu and Bennett prompted follow-up questions: How did this compare to previous surveys? What explained Bennett's rise and Netanyahu's decline?

Bennett's Positioning
The former prime minister is clearly preparing for a campaign. He has assembled a policy team that includes former Education Minister Shai Piron and ex-Knesset member Zvi Hauser to draft legislative and governance frameworks. Over the weekend, Bennett made his first appearance at a public protest, joining opposition leaders at Tel Aviv's Habima Square to demand a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures.

That move—publicly aligning with calls for accountability on Netanyahu's watch—signals Bennett's electoral strategy is taking shape.

Why Washington Cares
The administration's interest isn't purely academic. U.S.-Israel coordination on Gaza, Iran, and regional security depends heavily on who sits in the Prime Minister's Office. Netanyahu remains a known quantity with deep Trump ties, but Bennett—a tech entrepreneur who briefly led a broad coalition government—represents a different profile. Rising figures like Avigdor Liberman are also drawing American attention as potential coalition kingmakers.

For now, Washington is watching and waiting. The polling requests suggest they intend to stay well ahead of whatever comes next.

#Israel #Netanyahu #Bennett #Trump #IsraeliPolitics #Elections #MiddleEast

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📰 Bennett and Lapid: A Merger, Not a Revolution

Bennett and Lapid are finally doing what Israeli opposition politics has been threatening to do for months: stop pretending fragmentation is a strategy and fuse their parties into one list led by Bennett.

The move is sold as “repair,” unity, and national salvation, but it is also a cold admission that neither man can beat Netanyahu alone.

That is the real story. This is not a grand ideological synthesis. It is an emergency merger between two leaders who know the next election will punish vanity, duplication, and overlap — especially when the center and the soft-right keep stepping on each other’s toes.

The Likud response was instant and predictable: drag Mansour Abbas into the frame, slap on the usual fear campaign, and remind everyone that Bennett and Lapid once governed with Arab support.

In Israeli politics, that is less a rebuttal than a reflex: if the opposition tries to widen the tent, the right calls it betrayal and hopes the argument does the rest.

The problem for the new bloc is structural, not just rhetorical. Bennett has the momentum but not the machinery; Lapid has the party infrastructure but less appeal to the right-leaning voters who might actually decide the race.

Put them together and you get a stronger list — but also a clearer target for everyone who wants to say the center is just the old coalition with better branding.

Eisenkot is still the missing piece, and that matters. If he joins, the bloc looks like a serious anti-Netanyahu vehicle; if he does not, the merger risks becoming a polished but incomplete answer to a political system that has learned how to split the opposition before it can split the power.

So yes, this is a big step. But it is also a familiar Israeli move: unite late, argue loudly, and hope that a bigger tent can cover the fact that the country’s hard questions still outnumber its clean solutions.

#Israel #Bennett #Lapid #Netanyahu #elections #opposition

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📰 Israel’s Right-Wing Split Is Now a Branding War

The Hungarian lesson for Israel is simple: if you can’t beat the ruling camp by going left, take its patriotism away from it. That is how Peter Magyar broke Orbán’s machine — not by preaching anti-right unity, but by occupying the same national space and making the old monopoly look stale.

That is exactly what the new Israeli “Right State” project is trying to do. Edelstein, Kahlon, Erdan, and Haskel are not a centrist rebellion; they are an attempt to say, “We’re right-wing, just not Bibi,” and to pull security-minded voters away from Netanyahu without surrendering the language of nation, state, and order.

The trouble is that Israeli voters remember the last five times someone tried to sell them that package. Bennett, Saar, and Lapid all tested the same lane, but Netanyahu kept the hard-right base, stayed the default prime minister in the minds of right-leaning voters, and used fragmentation on the other side as his best campaign asset.

Bennett’s latest liberal turn makes the problem sharper. Public transport on Shabbat and civil marriage, including same-sex marriage, may sound modern in Tel Aviv, but to the old religious-national audience it looks like a costume change — and Yair Golan’s warm welcome only makes Bennett look even more alien to the right.

That is why this new bloc may hurt the left more than it hurts Netanyahu. It could strip votes from the anti-Bibi camp, split the “right, but not Bibi” lane again, and still fail to build the one thing the opposition actually needs: a durable field that runs from center to soft right to hard right without collapsing into personal rivalries.

Netanyahu’s health story only adds another layer. The real question is whether the opposition can turn competence into a message before the prime minister turns uncertainty into victimhood and keeps the national conversation locked on himself.

#Israel #Netanyahu #Bennett #Lapid #rightwing #elections

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📰 Bennett and Lapid’s Merger Already Looks Like a Leak, Not a Wave

The first post-merger polls do not show a breakthrough. They show a reshuffle inside the anti-Netanyahu camp, with “Together” landing below the combined pre-merger numbers and the whole opposition bloc still stuck short of a governing majority.

That is the problem in one line: the merger changes the packaging, not the math. Walla’s poll gives the Bennett–Lapid list 27 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc 59, while a separate 14 Channel survey is even harsher, putting Likud ahead and the new joint list far behind.

So the immediate effect is not momentum, but cannibalization. Bennett and Lapid may have united their brands, but the polling suggests they are still fighting over the same voters while Eisenkot siphons off the “right, but not Bibi” lane and the left loses some of its oxygen too.

Likud, meanwhile, barely needs to move. The right can simply watch the opposition split itself into overlapping products, then point at the numbers and say the post-Netanyahu fantasy is already collapsing under its own branding.

That is why the poll matters beyond the seat count. It suggests the merger may weaken the anti-Bibi bloc’s ability to build a stable majority, even as it makes Bennett the face of the new project and gives Netanyahu another argument that his rivals cannot even add themselves correctly.

#Israel #Bennett #Lapid #Netanyahu #polls #elections

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The Campaign’s Rental Democracy

A new poll gives Yashar! 22 seats, Likud 18 and Bennett’s Beyachad 13. Israel’s election campaign has already found its central ideology: everyone is somebody else’s existential threat.

The full result puts the Democrats at 11, Yisrael Beytenu and Otzma Yehudit at nine each, the Joint List at seven, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism at six each, Ra’am at five, and Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists at four apiece. That is a crowded Knesset before anyone has formed a government or explained who will sit with whom.

Beyachad’s Ram Ben-Barak called Netanyahu “Israel’s greatest enemy.” Bennett went to Bnei Brak, faced activist Mordechai David, and told him: “I suggest you enlist quickly, because once I am prime minister, you won’t get a shekel from the state.” David then blocked Bennett’s vehicle. Israeli politics has reached the stage where conscription policy is settled through traffic obstruction.

Likud candidate Elisha Medan offered the counter-slogan: “I’m not sure pushing an entire public is the way.” Democrat candidate Moshe Radman said there was room for demands to recognize the Nakba and accusations of war crimes. The campaign now has a complete menu: end the draft exemptions, protect the draft exemptions, recognize the Nakba, disqualify the Arabs and call Netanyahu the enemy.

The Democrats demanded personal security for party leader Yair Golan, arguing that police assigned him the same threat level as Gadi Eisenkot while providing protection to Eisenkot.

The High Court will sit as an expanded nine-justice panel on Thursday to decide the disqualification of Ofer Cassif and Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh.

Meanwhile, Justice Noam Sohlberg issued a temporary order barring the Satmar-linked association HaShekel HaTahor from offering payments to people who promise not to vote.

The petition alleged payments worth $200 to people who declared that they would abstain. Israeli law prohibits a bribe meant to influence a voter either to vote or to stay home.

The country is choosing a parliament. One party threatens to cut off a citizen’s money unless he enlists. Another group allegedly pays voters to stay home. The court decides who may stand. The poll tells everyone they are winning.

#IsraelElections #Knesset #Bennett #Netanyahu

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The Payroll Armies’ Graveyard

Kabul, Damascus and Mokha did not fall because Islamists discovered a mystical substitute for money. They fell because their defenders were paid by patrons, commanded by competing bosses and asked to die for states that had already been privatized.

The Taliban, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Houthis differ in doctrine, social base and foreign sponsors. Taliban fighters had Pakistani sanctuary. HTS grew under a Turkish umbrella. The Houthis received Iranian technology and military support. None of them won alone.

They shared something more practical. Each had spent years building a system in which the gunman, the tax collector, the judge and the local administrator answered to the same political order. Kabul had payrolls.

Assad had Russian air power and Iranian militias. Yemen’s Joint Forces had Saudi and Emirati cash. Their enemies had a chain of command that reached beyond their own countries.

America spent about $88 billion building Afghan security forces. Saudi Arabia budgeted billions to pay Yemeni soldiers and civil servants.

Assad raised military salaries days before fleeing Damascus. The money kept arriving because the sponsors mistook the payroll for the army.

The Houthis did not beat a richer enemy by abolishing interest. They beat a fragmented enemy because their own administration, coercion, taxation and recruitment were controlled by one movement. The financial doctrine matters because it tightens that control. It does not turn theology into logistics.

The lesson for Washington and the Gulf is not that Islamism has a magic formula. It is worse: states cannot rent a national army from men whose loyalty is divided between salary, tribe, commander and foreign sponsor.

#Yemen #Afghanistan #Syria #Houthis
#IsraelElections #Knesset #Bennett #Netanyahu

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Bennett’s Bnei Brak Campaign Stop

Naftali Bennett went to Bnei Brak to speak with yeshiva students. The event ended with objects thrown, a staff member struck in the head and the former prime minister escorted from the restaurant.

Police said a passerby threw an object at a public figure and missed. Officers from the Bnei Brak–Ramat Gan station arrested the suspect immediately. Bennett’s Beyachad party gave a fuller account: after about 30 minutes of conversation with the students, a group of political activists arrived, and two objects thrown toward Bennett struck a female staffer in the head.

Magen David Adom treated her at the scene. She was released without needing further medical care, and Bennett later said she was feeling well. Bennett himself was unhurt. The party said the conversation with the yeshiva students had been “good and substantive” before the disturbance.

A magistrate initially extended the suspect’s detention through Monday. The Tel Aviv District Court accepted his appeal and shortened it by a day, ordering his release on Sunday while the investigation continues.

Bennett said he would keep holding meetings across the country. That is the correct answer to a bottle or salt shaker thrown in a restaurant. Bnei Brak did not become a political no-go zone. It became another campaign stop where Israel’s conscription argument left the panel discussion and entered the dining room.

#IsraelElections #Bennett #BneiBrak #Politics

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💲💥Qatar’s Bad Investment

Benjamin Netanyahu told the UN that Qatar spent “untold billions” spreading lies about Israel.

Qatar’s prime minister answered with the kind of return-on-investment calculation no lobbying firm wants to publish.

If that had been Doha’s goal, Qatar should be receiving American aid, immunity and protection. Instead, it got attacked.

Netanyahu accused Qatar of spending decades funding American universities and “toxic media outlets like Al Jazeera” to “brainwash young minds” against Israel, America and the West.

Qatar rejects the allegation. Doha says most of its U.S.-university spending supports American branch campuses in Qatar’s Education City, rather than political influence in the United States.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told Piers Morgan that, if Qatar’s investments had been meant to buy influence in Washington, the country had received an absurdly poor return.

Qatar would be the chief recipient of U.S. assistance, he said. It would never be attacked. Its strategic security would be guaranteed. “It was a very bad investment, if that was the purpose of it.”

Then he supplied the detail that makes the joke land. Al Thani said the White House informed him that the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran was beginning only minutes to half an hour before it started.

Qatar hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Its government learned that a regional war was about to begin on a notice shorter than a late dinner reservation.

Bennett called Al Thani “a terrorist in a suit,” promised to declare Qatar an enemy state, remove “Qatari agents” from the Prime Minister’s Office and drive Qatar out of Israel and Gaza.

Al Thani calls Netanyahu a war criminal and insists that Qatari aid to Gaza was transferred at Israel’s request and under U.S. coordination.

An earlier Yedioth Ahronoth and Ynet investigation concluded that some Qatari funds officially described as humanitarian were diverted to Hamas, including funds that helped cover about half the military wing’s budget. Qatar denies the broader allegation.

Qatar hosts Hamas leaders, mediates with Hamas, hosts the U.S. military and receives warnings from Washington just before war begins. Netanyahu says this is hostile influence. Al Thani says it is a bad investment. Both descriptions can fit the same business model.

#Qatar #Israel #Netanyahu #Bennett

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Same War, Different Sales Team

Naftali Bennett is taking his campaign on foot through Likud strongholds. Benny Gantz is offering voters a security agenda with plenty of Likud-compatible territory.

Channel 14’s Oct. 14 poll gave Bennett’s party 11 seats, up from seven, and Netanyahu’s bloc a 62-seat majority. Channel 13 gave the same bloc 51 seats that evening. Even the projected government depends on which channel you watch.

Gantz’s Blue and White proposals call for taking control of all Gaza before handing civilian administration to Gazans. The party would retain a security zone in southern Lebanon while pursuing normalization with Beirut. In the West Bank, it opposes Palestinian statehood and supports E1 construction and settlement expansion, including farms.

That makes the campaign’s contradiction unusually clear. Bennett wants to persuade Likud voters to change leaders. Gantz offers several policies those voters could recognize without changing their minds.

Gantz’s campaign slogan is “Choose unity, save the country.”

On this platform, unity comes with more territory to administer and more borders to guard. The leadership contest is competitive. The security agenda has considerably fewer contestants.

#IsraelElections #Bennett #Gantz #Likud

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